Peter van Manen: How can Formula 1 racing help ... babies?

Prevoditelj: Kristina Gottwald Recezent: Senzos Osijek

Motor racing is a funny old business.

Utrke automobila star su i smiješan posao.

We make a new car every year,

Stvaramo nove automobile svake godine,

and then we spend the rest of the season

a ostatak godine provodimo

trying to understand what it is we've built

pokušavajući razumjeti što smo napravili

to make it better, to make it faster.

da bude bolje, da bude brže.

And then the next year, we start again.

A sljedeće godine, počinjemo iz početka.

Now, the car you see in front of you is quite complicated.

Automobil koji vidite ispred sebe prilično je kompliciran.

The chassis is made up of about 11,000 components,

Šasija je izrađena od oko 11.000 komponenti,

the engine another 6,000,

motor od još 6.000,

the electronics about eight and a half thousand.

elektronika od oko 8.500.

So there's about 25,000 things there that can go wrong.

Dakle ovdje je oko 25.000 stvari koje mogu poći po zlu.

So motor racing is very much about attention to detail.

Utrke automobila su uglavnom obraćanje pažnje na detalje.

The other thing about Formula 1 in particular

Druga osobita stvar u Formuli 1

is we're always changing the car.

je da uvijek mijenjamo automobil.

We're always trying to make it faster.

Uvijek ga pokušavamo napraviti da bude brži.

So every two weeks, we will be making

Svaka dva tjedna, napravit ćemo

about 5,000 new components to fit to the car.

oko 5.000 novih komponenti za automobil.

Five to 10 percent of the race car

5 do 10 posto trkaćih automobila

will be different every two weeks of the year.

bit će drugačije svaka dva tjedna tokom godine.

So how do we do that?

Kako to radimo?

Well, we start our life with the racing car.

Započinjemo život sa trkaćim automobilom.

We have a lot of sensors on the car to measure things.

Postoji mnogo senzora u automobilu koji mjere stvari.

On the race car in front of you here

Trkaći automobil ispred vas

there are about 120 sensors when it goes into a race.

ima oko 120 senzora kada se utrkuje.

It's measuring all sorts of things around the car.

Mjere se razne komponente automobila.

That data is logged. We're logging about

Ti podatci se prijavljuju. Dobivamo oko

500 different parameters within the data systems,

500 različitih parametara unutar sustava podataka

about 13,000 health parameters and events

oko 13.000 zdravstvenih parametara i događanja

to say when things are not working the way they should do,

koja nam govore kada nešto ne radi kako bi trebalo,

and we're sending that data back to the garage

i te podatke šaljemo natrag u garažu

using telemetry at a rate of two to four megabits per second.

koristeći telemetriju, brzinom dva do četri megabita u sekundi.

So during a two-hour race, each car will be sending

Tijekom dvosatne utrke, svaki automobil će poslati

750 million numbers.

750 milijuna brojeva.

That's twice as many numbers as words that each of us

To je dvostruko više brojeva nego riječi koje

speaks in a lifetime.

mi izgovorimo tokom života.

It's a huge amount of data.

To je velika količina podataka.

But it's not enough just to have data and measure it.

Ali nije dovoljno samo imati podatke i mjeriti ih.

You need to be able to do something with it.

Treba moći nešto učiniti s njima.

So we've spent a lot of time and effort

Pa smo potrošili mnogo vremena i truda

in turning the data into stories

kako bismo pretvorili podatke u priče

to be able to tell, what's the state of the engine,

koje nam mogu reći kakvo je stanje motora,

how are the tires degrading,

kako se gume troše,

what's the situation with fuel consumption?

kakva je situacija s potrošnjom goriva.

So all of this is taking data

Dakle, to je prikupljanje i pretvaranje

and turning it into knowledge that we can act upon.

podataka u znanje na koje možemo djelovati.

Okay, so let's have a look at a little bit of data.

U redu, pogledajmo malu količinu podataka.

Let's pick a bit of data from

Prikupimo podatke od

another three-month-old patient.

jednog pacijenta, starog tri mjeseca.

This is a child, and what you're seeing here is real data,

Ovo je dijete, a ovo što vidite pravi su podatci.

and on the far right-hand side,

Na desnoj strani ekrana,

where everything starts getting a little bit catastrophic,

gdje sve postaje pomalo katastrofično,

that is the patient going into cardiac arrest.

vidimo da pacijentu počinje zatajivati srce.

It was deemed to be an unpredictable event.

To smatramo nepredviđenim događajem.

This was a heart attack that no one could see coming.

To je bio srčani udar kojeg nitko nije mogao predvidjeti.

But when we look at the information there,

Kada pogledamo informacije ovdje,

we can see that things are starting to become

možemo vidjeti kako stvari postaju

a little fuzzy about five minutes or so before the cardiac arrest.

pomalo nejasne oko pet minuta prije zastoja srca.

We can see small changes

Možemo vidjeti male promjene

in things like the heart rate moving.

u nekim stvarima poput otkucaja srca.

These were all undetected by normal thresholds

Sve je bilo neotkriveno normalnim pragovima

which would be applied to data.

koji bi bili primijenjeni podatcima.

So the question is, why couldn't we see it?

Pitanje je, zašto to nismo vidjeli?

Was this a predictable event?

Je li ovo bio očekivani događaj?

Can we look more at the patterns in the data

Možemo li pogledati malo više na uzorke u podatcima

to be able to do things better?

da bismo mogli stvari raditi bolje?

So this is a child,

Dakle ovo je dijete,

about the same age as the racing car on stage,

otprilike iste starosti kao i vozilo na pozornici,

three months old.

tri mjeseca staro.

It's a patient with a heart problem.

Ono je pacijent sa srčanim problemom.

Now, when you look at some of the data on the screen above,

Sada, kad pogledate u neke podatke na zaslonu,

things like heart rate, pulse, oxygen, respiration rates,

stvari poput otkucaja srca, pulsa, kisika, udisaja,

they're all unusual for a normal child,

svi su neobičajeni za normalno dijete,

but they're quite normal for the child there,

ali oni su prilično normalni za ono dijete,

and so one of the challenges you have in health care is,

jedan od izazova koje imate u zdravstvu je,

how can I look at the patient in front of me,

kako mogu pogledati pacijenta ispred sebe,

have something which is specific for her,

koji ima nešto specifično,

and be able to detect when things start to change,

kako detektirati kad se pojave promjene,

when things start to deteriorate?

kada se počinji stvarati greške?

Because like a racing car, any patient,

Kao i kod trkaćeg automobila, kod svakog pacijenta

when things start to go bad, you have a short time

kada stvari krenu krivo, imate vrlo kratko vrijeme

to make a difference.

za raditi razliku.

So what we did is we took a data system

Mi smo uzeli sustav podataka

which we run every two weeks of the year in Formula 1

s kojim svakih dva tjedna u godini vozimo Formulu 1

and we installed it on the hospital computers

i instalirali ga na bolnička računala

at Birmingham Children's Hospital.

u dječjoj bolnici Birmingham.

We streamed data from the bedside instruments

Prenosili smo podatke s instrumenata koji su bili na krevetu

in their pediatric intensive care

njihovim pedijatrima na intenzivnoj njezi

so that we could both look at the data in real time

mogli smo gledati u podatke u stvarnom vremenu

and, more importantly, to store the data

a što je još važnije, mogli smo pohraniti te podatke

so that we could start to learn from it.

kako bismo mogli učiti iz njih.

And then, we applied an application on top

Tada smo počeli primjenjivati aplikaciju

which would allow us to tease out the patterns in the data

koja nam je dopustila da pročešljamo po obrascima unutar podataka

in real time so we could see what was happening,

u stvarnom vremenu te smo mogli vidjeti što se događa,

so we could determine when things started to change.

mogli smo utvrditi kada su se stvari počele mijenjati.

Now, in motor racing, we're all a little bit ambitious,

Sada, u automobilskim utrkama, svi smo malo ambiciozni,

audacious, a little bit arrogant sometimes,

odvažni, a ponekad pomalo arogantni,

so we decided we would also look at the children

zato smo odlučili da ćemo gledati djecu

as they were being transported to intensive care.

koja su prevezena na intenzivnu njegu.

Why should we wait until they arrived in the hospital

Zašto da čekamo da dođu u bolnicu

before we started to look?

prije nego što ih počnemo pregledavati?

And so we installed a real-time link

Instalirali smo vezu u realnom vremenu

between the ambulance and the hospital,

između kola hitne pomoći i bolnice

just using normal 3G telephony to send that data

koristeći samo normalnu 3G telefoniju za poslati te podatke

so that the ambulance became an extra bed

tako su kola hitne pomoći postala dodatni ležaj

in intensive care.

na intenzivnoj njezi.

And then we started looking at the data.

Počeli smo gledati u podatke.

So the wiggly lines at the top, all the colors,

valovite linije na vrhu, svih boja,

this is the normal sort of data you would see on a monitor --

ovo su normalne vrste podataka koje se vide na zaslonu --

heart rate, pulse, oxygen within the blood,

otkucaji srca, puls, kisik u krvi,

and respiration.

i disanje.

The lines on the bottom, the blue and the red,

Linije na dnu, plava i crvena,

these are the interesting ones.

vrlo su zanimljive.

The red line is showing an automated version

Crvena linija prikazuje automatiziranu verziju

of the early warning score

o ranom upozorenju

that Birmingham Children's Hospital were already running.

koje dječja bolnica Birmingham već vidi.

Oni to pokreću od 2008,

They'd been running that since 2008,

and already have stopped cardiac arrests

i već su zaustavili zastoje srca

and distress within the hospital.

i nevolje unutar bolnice.

The blue line is an indication

Plava linija pokazuje

of when patterns start to change,

kada se uzorak počinje mijenjati,

and immediately, before we even started

i trenutno, prije nego počne

putting in clinical interpretation,

klinička obrada,

we can see that the data is speaking to us.

možemo vidjeti što nam taj podatak govori.

It's telling us that something is going wrong.

Govori da nešto nije uredu.

The plot with the red and the green blobs,

grafički podaci s crvenom i zelenom mrljom,

this is plotting different components

to su grafički podaci različitih komponenti

of the data against each other.

od međusobnih podataka.

The green is us learning what is normal for that child.

Zelena nas uči što je normalno za to dijete.

We call it the cloud of normality.

To zovemo oblak normalnosti.

And when things start to change,

A kada se stvari počinju mijenjati,

when conditions start to deteriorate,

kada se uvijeti počinju mijenjati,

we move into the red line.

prelazimo u crvenu liniju.

There's no rocket science here.

Ovdje nema raketne tehnologije.

It is displaying data that exists already in a different way,

To prikazuje podatke koji već postoje u drugom obliku,

to amplify it, to provide cues to the doctors,

za pojačati ih, osigurati signale doktorima,

to the nurses, so they can see what's happening.

sestrama, kako bi vidjeli što se događa.

In the same way that a good racing driver

Na isti način dobar vozač automobilskih utrka

relies on cues to decide when to apply the brakes,

oslanja se na signale da odluči kada će početi kočiti,

when to turn into a corner,

kada će skrenuti u zavoj,

we need to help our physicians and our nurses

mi moramo pomoći svojim doktorima i sestrama

to see when things are starting to go wrong.

da vide kada stvari krenu u krivom smjeru.

So we have a very ambitious program.

Stoga imamo vrlo ambiciozan program.

We think that the race is on to do something differently.

Mislimo da je utrka mjesto gdje možemo učiniti nešto drukčije.

We are thinking big. It's the right thing to do.

Razmišljamo na veliko. To je ispravna stvar za učiniti.

We have an approach which, if it's successful,

Imamo pristup koji je uspješan,

there's no reason why it should stay within a hospital.

nema razloga zašto bi stajalo unutar bolnice.

Može se smjestiti iza zidova.

It can go beyond the walls.

With wireless connectivity these days,

Bežičnom vezom,

there is no reason why patients, doctors and nurses

nema razloga da su pacijenti, doktori i sestre

always have to be in the same place

uvijek na istom mjestu,

at the same time.

u isto vrijeme.

And meanwhile, we'll take our little three-month-old baby,

U međuvremenu, mi ćemo našu tri mjeseca staru bebu,

keep taking it to the track, keeping it safe,

nastaviti pratiti, čuvati sigurnom,

and making it faster and better.

i raditi da bude brže i bolje.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam puno.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)