Jonas Eliasson: How to solve traffic jams

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Sonja Srdanovic Lektor: Tatjana Jevdjic

Hi. I'm here to talk about congestion,

Zdravo. Došao sam da pričam o zagušenju,

namely road congestion.

zagušenju puteva.

Road congestion is a pervasive phenomenon.

Zagušenje puteva je sveprisutan fenomen.

It exists in basically all of the cities all around the world,

Postoji u svim gradovima širom sveta,

which is a little bit surprising when you think about it.

što je pomalo čudno, ako razmislite o tome.

I mean, think about how different cities are, actually.

Razmislite samo koliko su gradovi zapravo različiti.

I mean, you have the typical European cities,

Tu su tipični evropski gradovi,

with a dense urban core, good public transportation

sa gustim urbanim jezgrom, solidnim javnim prevozom

mostly, not a lot of road capacity.

i malim kapacitetom puteva.

But then, on the other hand, you have the American cities.

S druge strane imamo američke gradove.

It's moving by itself, okay.

Ovo ide samo od sebe.

Anyway, the American cities:

Dakle, američki gradovi:

lots of roads dispersed over large areas,

dosta puteva rasprostranjenih po velikim područjima,

almost no public transportation.

skoro nepostojeći javni prevoz.

And then you have the emerging world cities,

A onda imamo mlade metropole,

with a mixed variety of vehicles,

sa raznim vozilima,

mixed land-use patterns, also rather dispersed

različitim šemama puteva, kao i rasutim,

but often with a very dense urban core.

ali često i veoma gustim urbanim jezgrom.

And traffic planners all around the world have tried

Saobraćajni planeri širom sveta su isprobavali

lots of different measures: dense cities or dispersed cities,

različite mere: gusto ili rasuto raspoređene gradove,

lots of roads or lots of public transport

mnogo puteva ili dosta javnog prevoza

or lots of bike lanes or more information,

ili dosta biciklističkih staza ili više informacija

or lots of different things, but nothing seems to work.

ili više različitih stvari, ali ništa od toga nije bilo odgovarajuće.

But all of these attempts have one thing in common.

Ali svi ovi pokušaji su imali nešto zajedničko.

They're basically attempts at figuring out

Svi su u suštini pokušavali da otkriju

what people should do instead of rush hour car driving.

šta bi ljudi trebalo da rade umesto da voze u vreme špica.

They're essentially, to a point, attempts at planning

To su, zapravo, pokušaji planiranja

what other people should do, planning their life for them.

onoga što bi ljudi trebalo da rade, planiranja njihovih života.

Now, planning a complex social system

Planiranje složenog društvenog sistema

is a very hard thing to do, and let me tell you a story.

je veoma teško i dozvolite da vam ispričam nešto.

Back in 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell,

Negde 1989., kada je pao Berlinski zid,

an urban planner in London got a phone call

jedan urbani planer iz Londona je dobio telefonski poziv.

from a colleague in Moscow saying, basically,

od kolege iz Moskve koji je rekao:

"Hi, this is Vladimir. I'd like to know,

"Ćao, ovde Vladimir. Zanima me

who's in charge of London's bread supply?"

ko je zadužen za snabdevanje hlebom u Londonu?"

And the urban planner in London goes,

A urbani planer ga pita:

"What do you mean, who's in charge of London's —

"Kako to misliš, ko je zadužen -

I mean, no one is in charge."

Mislim, niko nije zadužen."

"Oh, but surely someone must be in charge.

"Ma sigurno je neko zadužen.

I mean, it's a very complicated system. Someone must control all of this."

To je veoma komplikovan sistem. Neko mora da ga kontroliše."

"No. No. No one is in charge.

"Ne. Ne. Niko nije zadužen.

I mean, it basically -- I haven't really thought of it.

Zapravo, nikada nisam ni mislio o tome.

It basically organizes itself."

Sistem se praktično sam organizuje."

It organizes itself.

Sam se organizuje.

That's an example of a complex social system

Ovo je primer složenog društvenog sistema

which has the ability of self-organizing,

koji ima sposobnost samostalne organizacije

and this is a very deep insight.

i ovo nam pruža značajan uvid.

When you try to solve really complex social problems,

Kada pokušavate da rešite veoma složene društvene probleme,

the right thing to do is most of the time

najčešće je najbolje da

to create the incentives.

stvorite podsticaj.

You don't plan the details,

Nemojte planirati detalje

and people will figure out what to do,

i ljudi će shvatiti šta treba da rade,

how to adapt to this new framework.

kako da se prilagode novom sistemu.

And let's now look at how we can use this insight

Pogledajmo kako možemo koristiti ovaj uvid

to combat road congestion.

u borbi protiv saobraćajnih zagušenja.

This is a map of Stockholm, my hometown.

Ovo je mapa Stokholma, mog rodnog grada.

Now, Stockholm is a medium-sized city, roughly two million people,

Stokholm je grad srednje veličine sa oko dva miliona stanovnika,

but Stockholm also has lots of water and lots of water

ali Stokholm ima dosta vodenih površina, a to znači

means lots of bridges -- narrow bridges, old bridges --

mnogo mostova - uskih mostova, starih mostova,

which means lots of road congestion.

što podrazumeva veliko zagušenje puteva.

And these red dots show the most congested parts,

Ove crvene tačke predstavljaju najzagušenije delove,

which are the bridges that lead into the inner city.

a to su putevi koji vode ka centru grada.

And then someone came up with the idea that,

A onda se neko setio da,

apart from good public transport,

osim dobrog javnog prevoza,

apart from spending money on roads,

osim novca uloženog u puteve,

let's try to charge drivers one or two euros at these bottlenecks.

pokuša da vozačima naplati evro ili dva na ovim uskim grlima.

Now, one or two euros, that isn't really a lot of money,

Jedan ili dva evra nije mnogo novca.

I mean compared to parking charges and running costs, etc.,

U poređenju sa cenama parkinga i tekućim troškovima i slično,

so you would probably expect that car drivers

ne biste očekivali da će vozači

wouldn't really react to this fairly small charge.

uopšte reagovati na ovako malu taksu.

You would be wrong.

Ne biste bili u pravu.

One or two euros was enough to make 20 percent of cars

Jedan ili dva evra je bilo dovoljno da 20 procenata

disappear from rush hours.

automobila nestane iz špica.

Now, 20 percent, well, that's a fairly huge figure, you might think,

Možda vam se čini da je 20% velika cifra,

but you've still got 80 percent left of the problem, right?

ali i dalje vam preostaje 80% problema, zar ne?

Because you still have 80 percent of the traffic.

Pošto vam preostaje ostalih 80% saobraćaja.

Now, that's also wrong, because traffic happens to be

To je takođe pogrešno jer je saobraćaj

a nonlinear phenomenon, meaning that

nelinearna pojava, što znači da

once you reach above a certain capacity threshold

kada se jednom dostigne određeni prag kapaciteta

then congestion starts to increase really, really rapidly.

zagušenje počinje ubrzano da se pogoršava.

But fortunately, it also works the other way around.

Srećom, ovo funkcioniše i s druge strane.

If you can reduce traffic even somewhat, then congestion

Ako ikako možete da smanjite saobraćaj, onda će se zagušenje

will go down much faster than you might think.

smanjiti mnogo brže no što očekujete.

Now, congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm

Naplata na mestima zagušenja u Stokholmu je uvedena

on January 3, 2006, and the first picture here is a picture

3. januara 2006. i prva slika ovde je slika

of Stockholm, one of the typical streets, January 2.

jedne od tipičnih stokholmskih ulica, 2. januara.

The first day with the congestion charges looked like this.

Prvi dan nakon uvođenja naplate je izgledao ovako.

This is what happens when you take away

Ovako izgleda kada uklonite

20 percent of the cars from the streets.

20 odsto automobila sa ulica.

You really reduce congestion quite substantially.

Zagušenje se značajno smanji.

But, well, as I said, I mean, car drivers adapt, right?

Ali, kao što sam rekao, vozači se prilagođavaju, zar ne?

So after a while they would all come back because they

Tako da se ubrzo svi vrate jer se

have sort of gotten used to charges.

nekako naviknu na naplatu.

Wrong again. It's now six and a half years ago

Opet pogrešno! Prošlo je šest i po godina

since the congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm,

od uvođenja naplate za zagušenje u Stokholmu,

and we basically have the same low traffic levels still.

a još uvek imamo isti nizak nivo saobraćaja.

But you see, there's an interesting gap here in the time series

Ali vidite, imamo zanimljivu prazninu u vremenskoj seriji

in 2007.

u 2007.

Well, the thing is that, the congestion charges,

Stvar je u tome što su naplate za zagušenje

they were introduced first as a trial, so they were introduced

najpre bile probne, tako da su uvedene

in January and then abolished again at the end of July,

u januaru, a onda ukinute krajem jula,

followed by a referendum, and then they were reintroduced

nakon čega je bio referendum, pa su ponovo uvedene

again in 2007, which of course was a wonderful scientific opportunity.

u 2007. i to je stvorilo zlatnu priliku za naučnike.

I mean, this was a really fun experiment to start with,

Ovo je ispočetka bio zabavan eksperiment

and we actually got to do it twice.

i na kraju smo ga i ponovili.

And personally, I would like to do this every once a year or so,

Lično bih voleo da ga ponavljam barem jednom godišnje,

but they won't let me do that.

ali neće da mi daju.

But it was fun anyway.

Ali je svejedno bilo zabavno.

So, we followed up. What happened?

Tako smo to ispratili. Šta se desilo?

This is the last day with the congestion charges, July 31,

Ovo je poslednji dan naplate zagušenja - 31. juli

and you see the same street but now it's summer,

i ovo su iste ulice samo tokom leta,

and summer in Stockholm is a very nice

a leto u Stokholmu je jako lepo

and light time of the year,

i svetlo doba godine

and the first day without the congestion charges

i prvi dan bez naplate zagušenja

looked like this.

je izgledao ovako.

All the cars were back again, and you even have to admire

Sva kola su se ponovo vratila i prosto morate da se

the car drivers. They adapt so extremely quickly.

divite vozačima. Tako su se brzo prilagodili.

The first day they all came back.

Već prvog dana su se svi vratili.

And this effect hanged on. So 2007 figures looked like this.

I ovaj efekat se zadržao. Tako da su brojke 2007. izgledale ovako.

Now these traffic figures are really exciting

Ove brojke su vrlo uzbudljive,

and a little bit surprising and very useful to know,

pomalo iznenađujuće i korisne,

but I would say that the most surprising slide here

ali čini se da najzanimljiviji slajd

I'm going to show you today is not this one. It's this one.

koji ću danas pokazati nije ovaj. Već ovaj.

This shows public support for congestion pricing of Stockholm,

Ovo pokazuje podršku javnosti naplati zagušenja u Stokholmu

and you see that when congestion pricing were introduced

i možete videti da su ljudi nakon uvođenja naplate

in the beginning of Spring 2006, people were fiercely against it.

početkom proleća 2006. bili izrazito protiv.

Seventy percent of the population didn't want this.

Sedamdeset odsto stanovništva je bilo protiv.

But what happened when the congestion charges

Ali se nije desilo ono što biste očekivali nakon

were there is not what you would expect, that people hated it more and more.

uvođenja naplate - da će ljudi to sve više mrzeti.

No, on the contrary, they changed, up to a point

Ne, sasvim suprotno, sada je

where we now have 70 percent support for keeping the charges,

70 odsto stanovnika podržavalo naplatu,

meaning that -- I mean, let me repeat that:

što znači - dozvolite da ponovim to:

70 percent of the population in Stockholm

70 odsto građana Stokholma

want to keep a price for something that used to be free.

je želelo da zadrži plaćanje za nešto što je bilo besplatno.

Okay. So why can that be? Why is that?

U redu. Ali kako to? Zašto to?

Well, think about it this way. Who changed?

Razmislite o tome ovako. Ko se promenio?

I mean, the 20 percent of the car drivers that disappeared,

Dvadeset odsto nestalih vozača

surely they must be discontent in a way.

mora biti nezadovoljno na neki način.

And where did they go? If we can understand this,

Gde su oni nestali? Ako to shvatimo,

then maybe we can figure out how people can be so happy with this.

onda bismo mogli da otkrijemo zašto ljudima ovo ne smeta.

Well, so we did this huge interview survey

Zbog toga smo uradili veliku anketu

with lots of travel services, and tried to figure out

sa dosta putnih službi i pokušali da otkrijemo

who changed, and where did they go?

ko se promenio i gde su oni nestali?

And it turned out that they don't know themselves. (Laughter)

I ispostavilo se da ni oni nisu znali. (Smeh)

For some reason, the car drivers are --

Vozači su nekako sigurni u to

they are confident they actually drive the same way that they used to do.

da voze isto koliko i ranije.

And why is that? It's because that travel patterns

A zašto? Zato što su putne putanje

are much less stable than you might think.

mnogo nestabilnije nego što biste mislili.

Each day, people make new decisions, and people change

Ljudi svakoga dana donose nove odluke i ljudi se menjaju

and the world changes around them, and each day

i svet se menja oko njih i svakog dana

all of these decisions are sort of nudged ever so slightly

te odluke se polako kreću dalje

away from rush hour car driving

od vožnje kola u špicu

in a way that people don't even notice.

tako da ljudi i ne primete.

They're not even aware of this themselves.

Ni sami nisu svesni toga.

And the other question, who changed their mind?

A drugo pitanje je - ko im je promenio mišljenje?

Who changed their opinion, and why?

Ko im je promenio mišljenje i zašto?

So we did another interview survey, tried to figure out

Tako da smo uradili još jednu anketu, u pokušaju da otkrijemo

why people changed their mind, and what type of group changed their minds?

zašto su ljudi promenili mišljenje i koja grupa je to učinila?

And after analyzing the answers, it turned out that

Nakon analize odgovora, ispostavilo se da

more than half of them believe that they haven't changed their minds.

više od polovine veruje da nisu ni promenili mišljenje.

They're actually confident that they have

Oni veruju da im se od početka

liked congestion pricing all along.

dopadala naplata zagušenja.

Which means that we are now in a position

Što znači da sada imamo

where we have reduced traffic across this toll cordon

smanjen saobraćaj na ovom delu puta za 20%

with 20 percent, and reduced congestion by enormous numbers,

i uveliko smanjeno zagušenje,

and people aren't even aware that they have changed,

a ljudi nisu svesni da su se promenili

and they honestly believe that they have liked this all along.

i stvarno veruju da im se to dopadalo od početka.

This is the power of nudges when trying to solve

To je snaga sitnih podsticaja kada pokušavate da rešite

complex social problems, and when you do that,

složene društvene probleme, a kada to učinite,

you shouldn't try to tell people how to adapt.

ne treba da govorite ljudima kako da se prilagode.

You should just nudge them in the right direction.

Samo treba da ih gurnete u pravom smeru.

And if you do it right,

Ako to dobro uradite,

people will actually embrace the change,

ljudi će prihvatiti promenu

and if you do it right, people will actually even like it.

i ako to dobro uradite, ljudi će tu promenu i voleti.

Thank you. (Applause)

Hvala vam. (Aplauz)