Jonas Eliasson: How to solve traffic jams

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevoditelj: Ivana Čović Recezent: Danijela Rako

Hi. I'm here to talk about congestion,

Pozdrav, ovdje sam da govorim o gužvi,

namely road congestion.

to jest, prometnoj gužvi.

Road congestion is a pervasive phenomenon.

Gužva u prometu je sveprisutna pojava.

It exists in basically all of the cities all around the world,

Praktički postoji u svim gradovima u svijetu,

which is a little bit surprising when you think about it.

što je malo iznenađujuće kad razmislite o tome.

I mean, think about how different cities are, actually.

Razmislite malo o tome kako su gradovi zapravo različiti.

I mean, you have the typical European cities,

Naime, postoje tipični europski gradovi

with a dense urban core, good public transportation

sa napučenim urbanim sredinama, većinom dobrim javnim prijevozom

mostly, not a lot of road capacity.

bez puno prostora na cestama.

But then, on the other hand, you have the American cities.

S druge strane, imamo i američke gradove.

It's moving by itself, okay.

Kreće se samo od sebe (stranice na prezentaciji).

Anyway, the American cities:

Američki gradovi:

lots of roads dispersed over large areas,

puno cesta raspršenih po velikim područjima,

almost no public transportation.

gotovo da i nema javnog prijevoza.

And then you have the emerging world cities,

Imamo i rastuće svjetske gradove

with a mixed variety of vehicles,

s različitim oblicima prijevoza,

mixed land-use patterns, also rather dispersed

različitio iskorištenim područjima također jako raspršenim,

but often with a very dense urban core.

ali često s gustom urbanom sredinom.

And traffic planners all around the world have tried

Inžinjeri prometa u cijelom svijetu pokušali su

lots of different measures: dense cities or dispersed cities,

s različitim modelima: napučeni gradovi ili raspršeni gradovi,

lots of roads or lots of public transport

mnogo cesta ili mnogo oblika javnog prijevoza

or lots of bike lanes or more information,

ili puno biciklističkih staza ili više informacija

or lots of different things, but nothing seems to work.

ili mnogo različitih ostalih stvari, ali ništa nije upalilo.

But all of these attempts have one thing in common.

Svi ovi pokušaji imaju jednu zajedničku stvar.

They're basically attempts at figuring out

To su zapravo pokušaji osmišljavanja

what people should do instead of rush hour car driving.

što bi ljudi trebali napraviti umjesto vožnje u udarnim terminima.

They're essentially, to a point, attempts at planning

To su, do neke mjere, pokušaji onoga što bi ljudi trebali raditi.

what other people should do, planning their life for them.

Planiranje njihovog života.

Now, planning a complex social system

Planiranje složenog društvenog sustava je jako teško.

is a very hard thing to do, and let me tell you a story.

Dopustite mi da vam ispričam priču.

Back in 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell,

Kad je pao Berlinski zid, 1989.,

an urban planner in London got a phone call

jedan urbanist u Londonu je zaprimio telefonski poziv

from a colleague in Moscow saying, basically,

kolege u Moskvi koji je rekao:

"Hi, this is Vladimir. I'd like to know,

"Bok, ovo je Vladimir. Želio bih znati

who's in charge of London's bread supply?"

tko je zadužen za londonsku opskrbu kruha?"

And the urban planner in London goes,

Na to će londonski urbanist -

"What do you mean, who's in charge of London's —

"Kako mislite tko je zadužen za londonsku ...

I mean, no one is in charge."

Mislim, nije nitko zadužen."

"Oh, but surely someone must be in charge.

"Oh, pa zasigurno netko mora biti zadužen."

I mean, it's a very complicated system. Someone must control all of this."

Hoću reći, to je jako kompliciran sustav. Sigurno netko tim upravlja."

"No. No. No one is in charge.

"Ne, ne. Nitko.

I mean, it basically -- I haven't really thought of it.

Zapravo -- nisam baš o tome razmišljao.

It basically organizes itself."

Upravlja samim sobom."

It organizes itself.

Upravlja samim sobom.

That's an example of a complex social system

To je primjer složenog društvenog sustava

which has the ability of self-organizing,

koji ima sposobnost samoorganizacije,

and this is a very deep insight.

a ovo je jako dubok uvid u to.

When you try to solve really complex social problems,

Kada pokušate riješiti zaista složene društvene probleme,

the right thing to do is most of the time

u većini slučajeva najbolja stvar koju možete napraviti

to create the incentives.

je da stvorite incijativu.

You don't plan the details,

Ne isplanirate detalje,

and people will figure out what to do,

a ljudi će sami osmisliti što treba napraviti

how to adapt to this new framework.

i kako se prilagoditi novom okviru.

And let's now look at how we can use this insight

Pogledajmo kako možete iskoristiti ovaj uvid

to combat road congestion.

u borbi protiv prometnih gužvi.

This is a map of Stockholm, my hometown.

Ovo je karta Stockholma, mog rodnog grada.

Now, Stockholm is a medium-sized city, roughly two million people,

Stockholm je grad srednje veličine sa otprilike 2 milijuna građana,

but Stockholm also has lots of water and lots of water

ali Stockholm također ima mnogo vode,

means lots of bridges -- narrow bridges, old bridges --

što znači ima mnogo mostova -- uskih mostova, starih mostova --

which means lots of road congestion.

što znači mnogo prometnih gužvi.

And these red dots show the most congested parts,

Crvene točke pokazuju najzagušenije dijelove -

which are the bridges that lead into the inner city.

mostove koji vode u unutarnji dio grada.

And then someone came up with the idea that,

Onda je netko došao na ideju da,

apart from good public transport,

osim dobrog javnog prijevoza

apart from spending money on roads,

i trošenja novca na ceste,

let's try to charge drivers one or two euros at these bottlenecks.

pokuša naplatiti vozačima euro ili dva na mjestima uskog grla.

Now, one or two euros, that isn't really a lot of money,

Jedan ili dva eura, to zbilja nije puno novca,

I mean compared to parking charges and running costs, etc.,

pogotovo kad to uspoređujemo sa cijenama parkinga, goriva, itd.

so you would probably expect that car drivers

vjerojatno ne bi očekivali nikakvu reakciju vozača

wouldn't really react to this fairly small charge.

na ovako sitne naplate.

You would be wrong.

Bili bi u krivu.

One or two euros was enough to make 20 percent of cars

Jedan ili dva eura su bila dovoljna da razrijede promet

disappear from rush hours.

za 20% u udarnim terminima na cestama.

Now, 20 percent, well, that's a fairly huge figure, you might think,

Mislili bi da je 20% velika brojka,

but you've still got 80 percent left of the problem, right?

ali opet imate ostalih 80% problema, zar ne?

Because you still have 80 percent of the traffic.

Zato što još uvijek postoji 80% prometa.

Now, that's also wrong, because traffic happens to be

To je isto pogrešno zato što je promet

a nonlinear phenomenon, meaning that

nelinearna pojava, što znači da jednom

once you reach above a certain capacity threshold

kad pređete prag nekog kapaciteta,

then congestion starts to increase really, really rapidly.

zagušenost se onda počinje naglo povećavati.

But fortunately, it also works the other way around.

Na sreću, ovo također ima suprotan efekt

If you can reduce traffic even somewhat, then congestion

Ako barem malo reducirate promet, onda će se zagušenost

will go down much faster than you might think.

smanjiti još brže nego što to očekivate.

Now, congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm

Naknade na zagušenost su po prvi put uvedene u Stockholmu,

on January 3, 2006, and the first picture here is a picture

3. siječnja 2006. godine, a ovo je prva slika Stockholma,

of Stockholm, one of the typical streets, January 2.

tj. jedna od tamošnjih tipičnih ulica, 2. siječnja.

The first day with the congestion charges looked like this.

Prvi dan uvođenja naknada na zagušenost prometa izgledalo je ovako.

This is what happens when you take away

Ovo se dogodi kad reducirate

20 percent of the cars from the streets.

20% vozila s ulica.

You really reduce congestion quite substantially.

U velikoj mjeri se reducira i zagušenost prometa.

But, well, as I said, I mean, car drivers adapt, right?

Ali, kako sam i rekao, vozači automobila se prilagode, zar ne?

So after a while they would all come back because they

I nakon nekog vremena se vrate zato što su se

have sort of gotten used to charges.

na neki način navikli na ove naknade.

Wrong again. It's now six and a half years ago

Opet pogrešno. Prošlo je 6 i pol godina otkako su

since the congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm,

naknade na zagušenost prometa uvedene u Stockholm,

and we basically have the same low traffic levels still.

i mi još uvijek imamo niske stope cestovnog prometa.

But you see, there's an interesting gap here in the time series

Postoji zanimljiv jaz u vremenskim okvirima

in 2007.

u 2007. godini.

Well, the thing is that, the congestion charges,

Naknade na zagušenost prometa

they were introduced first as a trial, so they were introduced

su prvotno uvedene kao pokus

in January and then abolished again at the end of July,

u siječnju, a poslije ukinute u srpnju referendumom,

followed by a referendum, and then they were reintroduced

pa opet uvedene 2007.

again in 2007, which of course was a wonderful scientific opportunity.

Naravno, to je bila divna prilika za znanstvenike.

I mean, this was a really fun experiment to start with,

Naime, bilo je jako zabavno započeti s takvim pokusom

and we actually got to do it twice.

i mi smo ga čak uspjeli izvesti dva puta.

And personally, I would like to do this every once a year or so,

Osobno, volio bih ga izvesti barem jednom godišnje,

but they won't let me do that.

ali neki mi to ne dopuštaju.

But it was fun anyway.

Ali svejedno je bilo zabavno.

So, we followed up. What happened?

No, što se dogodilo?

This is the last day with the congestion charges, July 31,

Ovo je posljednji dan naknada za zagušenost, 31. srpnja,

and you see the same street but now it's summer,

vidite istu ulicu, samo što je sad ljeto,

and summer in Stockholm is a very nice

a ljeto u Stockholmu je jako ugodno

and light time of the year,

i vedro doba godine,

and the first day without the congestion charges

i prvoga dana ukinutih naknada

looked like this.

grad je izgledao ovako.

All the cars were back again, and you even have to admire

Sva vozila su se vratila, morate se čak diviti i vozačima.

the car drivers. They adapt so extremely quickly.

Oni su se prilagodili jako brzo.

The first day they all came back.

Prvi dan su se svi vratili.

And this effect hanged on. So 2007 figures looked like this.

Ovaj efekt se nastavio. U 2007. brojke su izgledale ovako.

Now these traffic figures are really exciting

Ove brojke u prometu su poprilično uzbuđujuće,

and a little bit surprising and very useful to know,

pomalo iznenađujuće i jako korisne,

but I would say that the most surprising slide here

ali rekao bih da je najiznenađujući slide kojega

I'm going to show you today is not this one. It's this one.

ću vam danas pokazati nije ovaj, nego ovaj.

This shows public support for congestion pricing of Stockholm,

Ovo pokazuje javnu podršku za naknade na zagušenje u Stockholmu,

and you see that when congestion pricing were introduced

i kad su se naknade uvele početkom proljeća 2006.

in the beginning of Spring 2006, people were fiercely against it.

ljudi su se tome žestoko protivili.

Seventy percent of the population didn't want this.

70% stanovništva ovo nije željelo.

But what happened when the congestion charges

Ono što se dogodilo dok su naknade još bile na snazi

were there is not what you would expect, that people hated it more and more.

nije ono što biste očekivali, da će ih ljudi mrziti sve više i više.

No, on the contrary, they changed, up to a point

Baš suprotno, brojke su se promijenile do točke

where we now have 70 percent support for keeping the charges,

gdje imamo 70% podrške građana za naknade,

meaning that -- I mean, let me repeat that:

što znači -- želim reći. ponovit ću:

70 percent of the population in Stockholm

70% stanovništva u Stockholmu želi sačuvati

want to keep a price for something that used to be free.

cijenu nečega što je prije bilo besplatno.

Okay. So why can that be? Why is that?

U redu ali zašto je to tako?

Well, think about it this way. Who changed?

Promislite na ovaj način, tko se promijenio?

I mean, the 20 percent of the car drivers that disappeared,

Onih 20% nestalih vozača

surely they must be discontent in a way.

su zasigurno bili nezadovoljni.

And where did they go? If we can understand this,

Gdje su oni otišli? Ako možemo ovo razumjeti,

then maybe we can figure out how people can be so happy with this.

onda možda možemo shvatiti kako ljudi mogu biti sretni ovime.

Well, so we did this huge interview survey

Napravili smo ogromnu anketu

with lots of travel services, and tried to figure out

s puno prometnih službi i pokušali shvatiti

who changed, and where did they go?

tko se promijenio i gdje su oni otišli?

And it turned out that they don't know themselves. (Laughter)

Ispalo je tako da ni oni sami ne znaju. (Smijeh)

For some reason, the car drivers are --

Zbog nekog razlog, vozači -- su uvjereni da voze

they are confident they actually drive the same way that they used to do.

istim načinom kako su i prije vozili.

And why is that? It's because that travel patterns

Zašto je to tako? Zato što načini putovanja

are much less stable than you might think.

su manje-više stabilni nego što to možete zamisliti.

Each day, people make new decisions, and people change

Svakim danom ljudi donose nove odluke i mijenjaju se,

and the world changes around them, and each day

mijenja se svijet oko njih i svakim danom sve te odluke

all of these decisions are sort of nudged ever so slightly

se polako guraju po strani

away from rush hour car driving

daleko od vožnje u udarnim terminima

in a way that people don't even notice.

na način na koji ljudi to ne zamijete.

They're not even aware of this themselves.

Čak ni oni sami toga nisu svjesni.

And the other question, who changed their mind?

Drugo pitanje, tko je promijenio njihovo razmišljanje?

Who changed their opinion, and why?

Tko je promijenio njihovo mišljenje i zašto?

So we did another interview survey, tried to figure out

Ponovno smo napravili anketu i pokušali shvatiti

why people changed their mind, and what type of group changed their minds?

zašto su ljudi promijenili svoje razmišljanje i koje su to bile grupe?

And after analyzing the answers, it turned out that

Nakon analiziranja odgovora, ispalo je da je više od pola

more than half of them believe that they haven't changed their minds.

njih vjerovalo da nisu promijenili razmišljanje.

They're actually confident that they have

Zapravo su uvjereni da im se čitavo vrijeme

liked congestion pricing all along.

sviđala ideja uspostavljanja naknada.

Which means that we are now in a position

To znači da smo mi sad u položaju gdje smo

where we have reduced traffic across this toll cordon

reducirali promet preko naplatnih lanaca

with 20 percent, and reduced congestion by enormous numbers,

za 20% i reducirali zagušenost za ogromne brojke,

and people aren't even aware that they have changed,

i ljudi čak nisu svjesni da su se promijenili

and they honestly believe that they have liked this all along.

i uistinu su vjerovali da im se to čitavo vrijeme svidjelo.

This is the power of nudges when trying to solve

Ovo je moć "gurkanja" u pokušaju rješavanja

complex social problems, and when you do that,

složenih društvenih problema, a kad to napravite,

you shouldn't try to tell people how to adapt.

ne biste trebali ljudima govoriti kako se prilagoditi.

You should just nudge them in the right direction.

Trebate ih samo pogurati u pravom smjeru.

And if you do it right,

Ako to učinite kako treba,

people will actually embrace the change,

ljudi će prihvatiti promjenu,

and if you do it right, people will actually even like it.

i ako to učinite dobro, ljudima će se to čak i svidjeti.

Thank you. (Applause)

Hvala. (Pljesak)