Jonas Eliasson: How to solve traffic jams

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

翻译人员: Louise LIANG 校对人员: James Yu

Hi. I'm here to talk about congestion,

嗨，我要在这里谈谈拥堵问题

namely road congestion.

我指的是道路堵塞。

Road congestion is a pervasive phenomenon.

道路堵塞普遍存在。

It exists in basically all of the cities all around the world,

世界上几乎所有的城市都存在这个问题

which is a little bit surprising when you think about it.

斟酌之下这是挺奇怪的事

I mean, think about how different cities are, actually.

我的意思是，想想每个城市实际上有多大的差别。

I mean, you have the typical European cities,

我是说，既有那些典型的欧洲城市

with a dense urban core, good public transportation

那里有高密度的中心城区，大部分有良好的公交体系

mostly, not a lot of road capacity.

但道路容量并不充足

But then, on the other hand, you have the American cities.

另一边厢，还有美式都会

It's moving by itself, okay.

基本上都以自驾车为主，对吧。

Anyway, the American cities:

不管怎样，在美式城市里

lots of roads dispersed over large areas,

公路系统覆盖大部分地区，

almost no public transportation.

公交系统几乎是不存在的。

And then you have the emerging world cities,

此外还有新兴世界的城市

with a mixed variety of vehicles,

那里各式交通工具并存，

mixed land-use patterns, also rather dispersed

土地利用模式丰富多样，而且分布广泛

but often with a very dense urban core.

但是通常中心区的密度极高。

And traffic planners all around the world have tried

世界各地的交通规划者都曾尝试

lots of different measures: dense cities or dispersed cities,

许多不同的方式：集中化城市或是分散化城市，

lots of roads or lots of public transport

大量道路或是大量公交，

or lots of bike lanes or more information,

又或者是大量自行车道或提供更多的信息，

or lots of different things, but nothing seems to work.

还有许多不同的尝试，可惜看起来都不太见效。

But all of these attempts have one thing in common.

但是以上尝试有一个共同点。

They're basically attempts at figuring out

就是基本上他们都是试着搞清楚

what people should do instead of rush hour car driving.

除了车流高峰出行外人们应该做什么。

They're essentially, to a point, attempts at planning

简而言之，他们都是尝试规划

what other people should do, planning their life for them.

他人应该做的事情，为他们规划生活。

Now, planning a complex social system

现在，规划一个复杂的社会系统

is a very hard thing to do, and let me tell you a story.

是件相当困难的事，我来讲个故事好了。

Back in 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell,

早在1989年，当柏林围墙倒塌的时候，

an urban planner in London got a phone call

一个伦敦的城市规划师接到一通电话，

from a colleague in Moscow saying, basically,

是莫斯科的同事打来的，大意是

"Hi, this is Vladimir. I'd like to know,

“喂，我是Vladimir。我想知道，

who's in charge of London's bread supply?"

伦敦的面包供应是由谁负责的？“

And the urban planner in London goes,

伦敦的那位规划师回答道

"What do you mean, who's in charge of London's —

”你问的是什么意思？是谁负责伦敦的...

I mean, no one is in charge."

我是说，这个没有负责。“

"Oh, but surely someone must be in charge.

”哦，但总得有个人拍板的吧。

I mean, it's a very complicated system. Someone must control all of this."

我是说，这是一个非常复杂的系统。总得有人来管才行啊。”

"No. No. No one is in charge.

“不，不，不，没人管的。

I mean, it basically -- I haven't really thought of it.

我是说，基本上...我从没想过这个问题。

It basically organizes itself."

基本上它是自发组织起来的。“

It organizes itself.

自发组织。

That's an example of a complex social system

这就是复杂却

which has the ability of self-organizing,

能够自我组织的复杂社会系统的例子。

and this is a very deep insight.

而这极富启发性。

When you try to solve really complex social problems,

当你要解决真正复杂的社会问题的时候，

the right thing to do is most of the time

大多数情况下，正确的做法

to create the incentives.

应该是创造激励机制。

You don't plan the details,

并不需要去设计细枝末节，

and people will figure out what to do,

人们自会

how to adapt to this new framework.

知道如何适应新的架构。

And let's now look at how we can use this insight

现在我们来看看这个指导思想

to combat road congestion.

如何能帮我们解决拥堵的问题。

This is a map of Stockholm, my hometown.

这是我的家乡，斯德哥尔摩的地图。

Now, Stockholm is a medium-sized city, roughly two million people,

如今斯德哥尔摩是一个中等规模城市，大概有两百万人口，

but Stockholm also has lots of water and lots of water

同时斯德哥尔摩也是水道纵横的城市，

means lots of bridges -- narrow bridges, old bridges --

水多桥也多，各种狭窄的，历史久远的桥梁...

which means lots of road congestion.

而道路拥堵也就随之而来。

And these red dots show the most congested parts,

图上的红点标出了最拥堵的路段,

which are the bridges that lead into the inner city.

都是通往市内的方向的桥梁.上

And then someone came up with the idea that,

于是有人想出了这样一个点子，

apart from good public transport,

不是良好的公共交通，

apart from spending money on roads,

不是花钱修路，

let's try to charge drivers one or two euros at these bottlenecks.

而是试着收取这些交通瓶颈的司机缴纳一两欧的费用。

Now, one or two euros, that isn't really a lot of money,

现在的一两欧只是个小钱，

I mean compared to parking charges and running costs, etc.,

我是说相对停车以及保养等费用而言，

so you would probably expect that car drivers

所以你大概以为

wouldn't really react to this fairly small charge.

司机不会对这么点小钱有什么反应。

You would be wrong.

你错了。

One or two euros was enough to make 20 percent of cars

仅仅一两欧就足以让20％

disappear from rush hours.

的车辆避开行车高峰。

Now, 20 percent, well, that's a fairly huge figure, you might think,

你可能会说20％虽然已经是个不错的数字，

but you've still got 80 percent left of the problem, right?

可是还有余下的80％没解决，对吧？

Because you still have 80 percent of the traffic.

因为还有80％的车辆在车流当中。

Now, that's also wrong, because traffic happens to be

你又错了，因为路况

a nonlinear phenomenon, meaning that

恰巧是个非线性的现象，也就是说

once you reach above a certain capacity threshold

当流量达到某个阙值

then congestion starts to increase really, really rapidly.

拥堵情况就开始加剧并迅速恶化。

But fortunately, it also works the other way around.

不过幸运的是，反过来也是成立的。

If you can reduce traffic even somewhat, then congestion

只要流量有某种程度的降低，拥堵现象的

will go down much faster than you might think.

缓解会比想象中快得多。

Now, congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm

斯德哥尔摩的交通拥堵费是从

on January 3, 2006, and the first picture here is a picture

2006年1月3日开始征收的，这里的第一张图

of Stockholm, one of the typical streets, January 2.

是1月2日拍到的典型的斯德哥尔摩街道的照片。

The first day with the congestion charges looked like this.

交通拥堵费实施的首日，拍得的照片是这样的。

This is what happens when you take away

当你排除了20%的车辆时

20 percent of the cars from the streets.

街道是这个样子的。

You really reduce congestion quite substantially.

拥堵的状况确实得到了很大的缓解。

But, well, as I said, I mean, car drivers adapt, right?

正如我提到的，司机们能适应，对吧？

So after a while they would all come back because they

那过了一段时间以后，他们就会回到路上

have sort of gotten used to charges.

因为他们已经习惯了收费。

Wrong again. It's now six and a half years ago

又错了。今天，在斯德哥尔摩

since the congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm,

交通拥堵费已经施行了六年半了，

and we basically have the same low traffic levels still.

基本上路况能一直保持同样的较低拥堵水平。

But you see, there's an interesting gap here in the time series

但是，你看，在2007年

in 2007.

有一个有趣的插曲。

Well, the thing is that, the congestion charges,

事情是这样的，交通拥堵费，

they were introduced first as a trial, so they were introduced

一开始是试验性质的，

in January and then abolished again at the end of July,

一月份开始推广，七月底在一次公投后取消了，

followed by a referendum, and then they were reintroduced

在2007年再度收取，

again in 2007, which of course was a wonderful scientific opportunity.

这当然是一次难得的科学实验的机会。

I mean, this was a really fun experiment to start with,

我是说，这本身就是一个很有趣的实验，

and we actually got to do it twice.

而且我们有机会做了两次。

And personally, I would like to do this every once a year or so,

对我个人而言，我巴不得年把两年就能重做一次，

but they won't let me do that.

不过这会让他们随时受不了的。

But it was fun anyway.

不管怎样这也十分有趣。

So, we followed up. What happened?

于是，我们进行了跟踪。情况如何呢？

This is the last day with the congestion charges, July 31,

这是引进交通拥堵费的最后一天，7月31日，

and you see the same street but now it's summer,

你看到的是相同的街道，但这是在夏天，

and summer in Stockholm is a very nice

夏天是斯德哥尔摩一年中

and light time of the year,

非常美好而轻松的季节，

and the first day without the congestion charges

废除交通拥堵费后的第一天

looked like this.

看起来是这个样子的。

All the cars were back again, and you even have to admire

所有的车都回来了，不得不佩服这些司机，

the car drivers. They adapt so extremely quickly.

他们反应神速。

The first day they all came back.

第一天就都回来了。

And this effect hanged on. So 2007 figures looked like this.

这个情况一直持续着。所以到了2007年，是这样的。

Now these traffic figures are really exciting

这些交通画面实在让人兴奋

and a little bit surprising and very useful to know,

还有些让人吃惊，并且还让人深受启发，

but I would say that the most surprising slide here

可是我要说，今天我要给大家展示的

I'm going to show you today is not this one. It's this one.

最让人惊讶的画面不是这张。而是这一张。

This shows public support for congestion pricing of Stockholm,

它显示了公众对于在斯德哥尔摩征收交通拥堵费的支持，

and you see that when congestion pricing were introduced

而当这项收费在2006年春天

in the beginning of Spring 2006, people were fiercely against it.

刚刚开始施行的时候，大家是强烈反对的。

Seventy percent of the population didn't want this.

70%的人都反对。

But what happened when the congestion charges

但是收费实施以后

were there is not what you would expect, that people hated it more and more.

人们并没有像预期中那样越来越讨厌这个举措。

No, on the contrary, they changed, up to a point

相反的，他们的想法从某种程度上来说来了个大逆转，

where we now have 70 percent support for keeping the charges,

现在70%的人是继续收费的支持者。

meaning that -- I mean, let me repeat that:

也就是说，让我重复一次：

70 percent of the population in Stockholm

斯德哥尔摩中70%的人口

want to keep a price for something that used to be free.

同意对某项过去免费的东西来继续收费。

Okay. So why can that be? Why is that?

OK 这怎么可能呢？是为什么呢？

Well, think about it this way. Who changed?

想想看，是谁改变了呢？

I mean, the 20 percent of the car drivers that disappeared,

我是说，20%的司机没有上路，

surely they must be discontent in a way.

他们肯定有点不乐意吧。

And where did they go? If we can understand this,

他们去哪里了呢？如果我们能了解这点，

then maybe we can figure out how people can be so happy with this.

那也许就能弄清楚为什么人们对这个满意。

Well, so we did this huge interview survey

于是我们做了这个大型的问卷调查，

with lots of travel services, and tried to figure out

针对各种交通服务，以尝试了解

who changed, and where did they go?

是谁变了，他们去了哪里？

And it turned out that they don't know themselves. (Laughter)

结果他们自己也搞不清楚（笑声)。

For some reason, the car drivers are --

不知道为什么，司机们

they are confident they actually drive the same way that they used to do.

都自信满满地说自己实际上还是如从前一样驾驶。

And why is that? It's because that travel patterns

这是为什么呢？因为驾驶模式

are much less stable than you might think.

并不像你想象中那么死板。

Each day, people make new decisions, and people change

每天，人们都会做出新的决定，而人们

and the world changes around them, and each day

和他们所处的世界也都在改变，每天

all of these decisions are sort of nudged ever so slightly

这些决定其实随时都在微调

away from rush hour car driving

以避开车流高峰出行，

in a way that people don't even notice.

而人们往往都没有意识到。

They're not even aware of this themselves.

哪怕是他们自己。

And the other question, who changed their mind?

另外一个问题是，是谁改变了他们的想法呢？

Who changed their opinion, and why?

谁让他们改变了主意，而且为什么会改变呢？

So we did another interview survey, tried to figure out

于是我们做了另外一个调查，试着了解

why people changed their mind, and what type of group changed their minds?

人们为什么改变主意，哪一些人改变了主意？

And after analyzing the answers, it turned out that

分析结果显示

more than half of them believe that they haven't changed their minds.

有超过一半的人认为 自己的想法并没有改变。

They're actually confident that they have

他们都自以为本来

liked congestion pricing all along.

就是收取交通拥堵费的支持者。

Which means that we are now in a position

所以，现在的实际情况是

where we have reduced traffic across this toll cordon

我们把堵点的交通流量降低了20％，

with 20 percent, and reduced congestion by enormous numbers,

从而极大减少了拥堵的状况，

and people aren't even aware that they have changed,

而人们竟浑然不知自己的行为已经产生了变化，

and they honestly believe that they have liked this all along.

而且他们真心诚意认为自己一开始就是支持的。

This is the power of nudges when trying to solve

这就是微小的推动力在解决

complex social problems, and when you do that,

复杂的社会问题中妙用，而当你利用它的时候，

you shouldn't try to tell people how to adapt.

不应该告诉人们怎样去适应。

You should just nudge them in the right direction.

只需要朝正确的方向进行微调。

And if you do it right,

如果你做对了，

people will actually embrace the change,

人们就会接受这种变化，

and if you do it right, people will actually even like it.

如果做好了，人们甚至可能喜欢上它。

Thank you. (Applause)

谢谢。(掌声)