Jonas Eliasson: How to solve traffic jams

249,781 views ・ 2012-11-27

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00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
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譯者: Annie Lam 審譯者: Coco Shen
00:16
Hi. I'm here to talk about congestion,
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嗨,我今天要談的是塞車
00:19
namely road congestion.
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也就是所謂的交通擁塞
00:21
Road congestion is a pervasive phenomenon.
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塞車非常普遍
00:23
It exists in basically all of the cities all around the world,
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世界各地的城市都有這個問題
00:26
which is a little bit surprising when you think about it.
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仔細想想其實令人驚訝
00:28
I mean, think about how different cities are, actually.
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畢竟城市之間不同之處甚多
00:31
I mean, you have the typical European cities,
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像典型的歐洲城市
00:33
with a dense urban core, good public transportation
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都有稠密的都市中心,良好的公共交通
00:36
mostly, not a lot of road capacity.
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但大部分道路狹小
00:38
But then, on the other hand, you have the American cities.
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另一方面,我們看看美國城市
00:40
It's moving by itself, okay.
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它自己動起來了,好
00:43
Anyway, the American cities:
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言歸正傳,美國的城市裡
00:46
lots of roads dispersed over large areas,
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許多道路散佈在大片土地上
00:49
almost no public transportation.
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幾乎沒有公共交通工具
00:51
And then you have the emerging world cities,
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再來是初嶄頭角的世界級城市
00:53
with a mixed variety of vehicles,
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當中混雜各種交通工具
00:54
mixed land-use patterns, also rather dispersed
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各種土地使用模式,而且相當分散
00:57
but often with a very dense urban core.
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市中心卻多數人口稠密
01:00
And traffic planners all around the world have tried
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世界各地的交通規劃人員
01:02
lots of different measures: dense cities or dispersed cities,
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採用過不同措施:以密集或分散形式規劃城市
01:06
lots of roads or lots of public transport
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建大量道路,或大力發展公共交通
01:08
or lots of bike lanes or more information,
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規劃很多單車徑,或提供更多資訊
01:11
or lots of different things, but nothing seems to work.
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措施不勝枚舉,但似乎都不得要領
01:15
But all of these attempts have one thing in common.
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這一切努力都有一個共同點
01:18
They're basically attempts at figuring out
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就是嘗試找出
01:20
what people should do instead of rush hour car driving.
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人們避免在尖峰時間開車的方法
01:23
They're essentially, to a point, attempts at planning
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基本上這些方法旨在影響人該做什麼
01:26
what other people should do, planning their life for them.
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替別人規劃生活
01:30
Now, planning a complex social system
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規劃一個複雜的社會系統相當困難
01:32
is a very hard thing to do, and let me tell you a story.
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讓我給你說個故事
01:35
Back in 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell,
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早在1989年,柏林圍牆倒下時
01:38
an urban planner in London got a phone call
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一位倫敦的都市規劃師接到電話
01:41
from a colleague in Moscow saying, basically,
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是莫斯科的同事打來的,他說
01:43
"Hi, this is Vladimir. I'd like to know,
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“嗨,我是維拉迪摩,我想知道
01:46
who's in charge of London's bread supply?"
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倫敦的麵包供應是誰管的?”
01:49
And the urban planner in London goes,
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那位都市規劃師回應道
01:50
"What do you mean, who's in charge of London's —
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“甚麼意思? 誰管理倫敦的...
01:52
I mean, no one is in charge."
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沒人管啊。”
01:54
"Oh, but surely someone must be in charge.
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“但總有個人管吧
01:55
I mean, it's a very complicated system. Someone must control all of this."
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這個系統極其複雜,一定要有人管理運作。”
01:59
"No. No. No one is in charge.
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“不,不,真沒人管
02:02
I mean, it basically -- I haven't really thought of it.
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我意思是,我真的沒想過這問題
02:05
It basically organizes itself."
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系統會自我管理吧。”
02:07
It organizes itself.
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自我管理
02:10
That's an example of a complex social system
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這例子說明複雜的社會系統
02:13
which has the ability of self-organizing,
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擁有自我管理的能力
02:16
and this is a very deep insight.
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這洞見發人深省
02:18
When you try to solve really complex social problems,
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當你試圖解決非常複雜的社會問題
02:21
the right thing to do is most of the time
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很多時候
02:23
to create the incentives.
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正確的做法是製造誘因
02:25
You don't plan the details,
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不需要規劃細節
02:27
and people will figure out what to do,
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大家自會知道該做甚麼
02:29
how to adapt to this new framework.
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如何適應這個新框架
02:31
And let's now look at how we can use this insight
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讓我們現在看看如何應用這洞見
02:35
to combat road congestion.
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來解決塞車問題
02:36
This is a map of Stockholm, my hometown.
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這是我家鄉斯德哥爾摩的地圖
02:39
Now, Stockholm is a medium-sized city, roughly two million people,
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中型城市,現時大約住了兩百萬人
02:42
but Stockholm also has lots of water and lots of water
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但斯德哥爾摩除了水還是水
02:45
means lots of bridges -- narrow bridges, old bridges --
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即是說城裡有很多橋,古老的,狹窄的
02:48
which means lots of road congestion.
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亦即是說交通經常擁塞
02:51
And these red dots show the most congested parts,
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這些紅點代表最擁塞的區域
02:55
which are the bridges that lead into the inner city.
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也就是通往內城的橋
02:57
And then someone came up with the idea that,
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後來有人想出解決方法
03:00
apart from good public transport,
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不是改善公共運輸
03:02
apart from spending money on roads,
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不是大費金錢興建道路
03:04
let's try to charge drivers one or two euros at these bottlenecks.
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而是在瓶頸位置向司機徵收一兩歐元
03:09
Now, one or two euros, that isn't really a lot of money,
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一兩二歐元不是甚麼大錢
03:12
I mean compared to parking charges and running costs, etc.,
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相對於停車費和日常開支而言
03:14
so you would probably expect that car drivers
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所以你可能以為司機們
03:17
wouldn't really react to this fairly small charge.
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對這種小額收費無動於衷
03:19
You would be wrong.
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你錯了
03:21
One or two euros was enough to make 20 percent of cars
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一兩歐元足以令百分之二十的汽車
03:25
disappear from rush hours.
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在尖峰時間從路上消失
03:27
Now, 20 percent, well, that's a fairly huge figure, you might think,
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百份之二十,你或許覺得這是個大數字
03:31
but you've still got 80 percent left of the problem, right?
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但仍有百份之八十的問題未解決,對嗎?
03:33
Because you still have 80 percent of the traffic.
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因為仍然有百份之八十的汽車在路上
03:35
Now, that's also wrong, because traffic happens to be
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這也是錯的
03:38
a nonlinear phenomenon, meaning that
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因為交通問題不是綫性現象
03:41
once you reach above a certain capacity threshold
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當你超過一個容量臨界點之後
03:44
then congestion starts to increase really, really rapidly.
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交通擁塞會開始很快地惡化
03:47
But fortunately, it also works the other way around.
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幸運的是,反之亦然
03:49
If you can reduce traffic even somewhat, then congestion
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如果你可以稍為減少交通量
03:53
will go down much faster than you might think.
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擁塞問題減輕的速度比你想像中更快
03:56
Now, congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm
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道路收費於2006年1月3號在斯德哥爾摩實施
03:59
on January 3, 2006, and the first picture here is a picture
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這裏第一張是斯德哥爾摩
04:04
of Stockholm, one of the typical streets, January 2.
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一條典型街道的照片,在2號拍的
04:08
The first day with the congestion charges looked like this.
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開始收費的第一天它變成這樣
04:12
This is what happens when you take away
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這就是路上減少百分之二十的車輛以後
04:15
20 percent of the cars from the streets.
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看起來的樣子
04:17
You really reduce congestion quite substantially.
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實際上,塞車情況大為改善
04:19
But, well, as I said, I mean, car drivers adapt, right?
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但正如我所說,汽車司機會適應的,對嗎?
04:23
So after a while they would all come back because they
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所以不久之後,他們會回到路上
04:26
have sort of gotten used to charges.
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因為他們已適應了收費
04:28
Wrong again. It's now six and a half years ago
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又錯了,六年半前
04:31
since the congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm,
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斯德哥爾摩開始徵收道路費
04:33
and we basically have the same low traffic levels still.
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到了今天,路上的汽車流量依然偏低
04:37
But you see, there's an interesting gap here in the time series
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但大家看,在時間序列上有個有趣的間縫
04:39
in 2007.
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時為2007年
04:41
Well, the thing is that, the congestion charges,
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實情是這樣的
04:43
they were introduced first as a trial, so they were introduced
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道路收費最初引入時屬試驗性質
04:46
in January and then abolished again at the end of July,
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故此在一月引入後,七月尾便被廢除
04:50
followed by a referendum, and then they were reintroduced
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接着舉行全民投票,然後在2007年再次引入道路費
04:53
again in 2007, which of course was a wonderful scientific opportunity.
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這當然是一次極好的研究機會
04:57
I mean, this was a really fun experiment to start with,
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我意思是開始時它已是個有趣的實驗
05:01
and we actually got to do it twice.
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而我們有機會兩次進行這實驗
05:03
And personally, I would like to do this every once a year or so,
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對我來說,我希望大約一年進行一次
05:05
but they won't let me do that.
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但他們不許我這樣做
05:07
But it was fun anyway.
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無論如何這是有趣的實驗
05:09
So, we followed up. What happened?
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我們跟進之後,有甚麼發現?
05:12
This is the last day with the congestion charges, July 31,
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這是7月31日,徵收道路費的最後一天
05:16
and you see the same street but now it's summer,
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你看到的是同一條街,而這正是夏季
05:18
and summer in Stockholm is a very nice
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斯德哥爾摩的夏季
05:20
and light time of the year,
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是年中非常天朗氣清的日子
05:22
and the first day without the congestion charges
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取消道路收費的第一天
05:25
looked like this.
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是這樣的
05:26
All the cars were back again, and you even have to admire
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所有汽車都返回路上,你真的要佩服那些司機
05:29
the car drivers. They adapt so extremely quickly.
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他們的反應真的很快
05:32
The first day they all came back.
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他們第一天就回來了
05:34
And this effect hanged on. So 2007 figures looked like this.
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情況持續下去,所以2007年的數據是這樣的
05:39
Now these traffic figures are really exciting
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這些交通數據真的令人興奮
05:42
and a little bit surprising and very useful to know,
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有點出人意表,但同時十分有用
05:44
but I would say that the most surprising slide here
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但今天給大看的幻燈片中
05:47
I'm going to show you today is not this one. It's this one.
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最令人驚奇的不是這張,而是這張
05:51
This shows public support for congestion pricing of Stockholm,
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它顯示了市民支持在斯德哥爾摩實施道路收費
05:54
and you see that when congestion pricing were introduced
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你看到當引入道路收費之時
05:57
in the beginning of Spring 2006, people were fiercely against it.
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即2006年初春,人們激烈反對收費
06:01
Seventy percent of the population didn't want this.
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百份之七十的市民反對收費
06:04
But what happened when the congestion charges
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當道路收費實施後,出現的情況並不如你想像的那樣
06:06
were there is not what you would expect, that people hated it more and more.
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人們會越來越憎惡它
06:09
No, on the contrary, they changed, up to a point
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正好相反,他們改變了
06:13
where we now have 70 percent support for keeping the charges,
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現時有百份之七十的市民支持繼續收費
06:16
meaning that -- I mean, let me repeat that:
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我是說,讓我再說一次
06:18
70 percent of the population in Stockholm
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斯德哥爾摩百份之七十的人口
06:21
want to keep a price for something that used to be free.
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希望對一樣一向可免費使用的東西繼續收費
06:25
Okay. So why can that be? Why is that?
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怎會這樣?有甚麼原因?
06:29
Well, think about it this way. Who changed?
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試循這方向想。誰改變了?
06:32
I mean, the 20 percent of the car drivers that disappeared,
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那百份之二十消失了的司機
06:34
surely they must be discontent in a way.
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肯定會在某方面感到不滿
06:36
And where did they go? If we can understand this,
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他們去了那裏?如果我們明白這點
06:39
then maybe we can figure out how people can be so happy with this.
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或許便可以明白為何人們喜愛這措施
06:43
Well, so we did this huge interview survey
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我們很多交通工具上
06:45
with lots of travel services, and tried to figure out
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進行大型的訪問調查
06:47
who changed, and where did they go?
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目的是要找出誰改變了,和這些人去了那裏?
06:49
And it turned out that they don't know themselves. (Laughter)
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原來受訪者自己也不知道
06:53
For some reason, the car drivers are --
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由於某些原因
06:58
they are confident they actually drive the same way that they used to do.
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那些司機都認為他們按自己一貫的方式駕駛
07:01
And why is that? It's because that travel patterns
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為甚麼會這樣?這是因為人們的駕駛路線
07:04
are much less stable than you might think.
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並非如你想像那般穩定
07:06
Each day, people make new decisions, and people change
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每一天,人會做新的決定,人會變
07:09
and the world changes around them, and each day
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環繞他們的世界也在變
07:11
all of these decisions are sort of nudged ever so slightly
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每一天這些決定會產生細微作用
07:15
away from rush hour car driving
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促使他們避開繁忙時間駕車
07:17
in a way that people don't even notice.
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人往往不會覺察這些作用
07:19
They're not even aware of this themselves.
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他們自己甚至不知道自己已改變
07:21
And the other question, who changed their mind?
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另一個問題是,誰改變了他們的心思?
07:24
Who changed their opinion, and why?
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誰改變了他們的想法,和為甚麼?
07:26
So we did another interview survey, tried to figure out
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我們為此做了另一個訪問調查
07:28
why people changed their mind, and what type of group changed their minds?
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為了要了解人為何改變想法,和那些群組的人改變了想法?
07:33
And after analyzing the answers, it turned out that
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分柝了數據之後,我們發現
07:36
more than half of them believe that they haven't changed their minds.
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超過一半的人認為他們的想法沒有變
07:40
They're actually confident that they have
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他們真的以為
07:42
liked congestion pricing all along.
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他們一直都喜歡道路收費
07:45
Which means that we are now in a position
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這即是說現在的情況是
07:46
where we have reduced traffic across this toll cordon
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我們透過收費界線減少了百份二十交通流量
07:49
with 20 percent, and reduced congestion by enormous numbers,
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同時大幅減少了塞車情況
07:52
and people aren't even aware that they have changed,
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而人們甚至不為意他們已改變了
07:56
and they honestly believe that they have liked this all along.
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並且他們誠實地相信他們一直都喜歡這個情況
08:00
This is the power of nudges when trying to solve
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這就是我們解決複雜的社會問題時
08:03
complex social problems, and when you do that,
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輕推所產生的力量,你那樣做的時候
08:06
you shouldn't try to tell people how to adapt.
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你不應該試圖告訴人他們要如何適應
08:10
You should just nudge them in the right direction.
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你只要輕輕把他們往對的方向推
08:12
And if you do it right,
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如果你做得對
08:14
people will actually embrace the change,
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人們會支持改變
08:16
and if you do it right, people will actually even like it.
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並且如果你做得對,人們甚至會喜歡它
08:19
Thank you. (Applause)
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謝謝大家。(拍掌)
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