Jonas Eliasson: How to solve traffic jams

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Translator: Eivind Tøstesen Reviewer: Anders Finn Jørgensen

Hi. I'm here to talk about congestion,

Hej. Jeg er her for at snakke om propper,

namely road congestion.

nemlig trafikpropper.

Road congestion is a pervasive phenomenon.

Trafikpropper er et gennemgående problem.

It exists in basically all of the cities all around the world,

Det findes i alle byer over hele verden,

which is a little bit surprising when you think about it.

hvilket er lidt overraskende når man tænker over det.

I mean, think about how different cities are, actually.

Jeg mener, tænk på hvor forskellige byer faktisk er.

I mean, you have the typical European cities,

Jeg mener, vi har de typiske europæiske byer,

with a dense urban core, good public transportation

med en tæt urban kerne, god offentlig transport

mostly, not a lot of road capacity.

ikke stor vejkapacitet.

But then, on the other hand, you have the American cities.

Men på den anden side har vi de amerikanske byer.

It's moving by itself, okay.

Den går af sig selv, okay.

Anyway, the American cities:

Men de amerikanske byer:

lots of roads dispersed over large areas,

En masse veje spredt over store arealer,

almost no public transportation.

næsten ingen offentlig transport.

And then you have the emerging world cities,

Og så har vi byerne i udviklingslandene,

with a mixed variety of vehicles,

med et blandet mix af køretøjer,

mixed land-use patterns, also rather dispersed

blandet udnyttelse af land, også ret spredt

but often with a very dense urban core.

men ofte med en meget tæt urban kerne.

And traffic planners all around the world have tried

Og trafikplanlæggere over hele verden har prøvet

lots of different measures: dense cities or dispersed cities,

en masse virkemidler: tætte byer eller spredte byer,

lots of roads or lots of public transport

masser af vej, masser af offentlig transport,

or lots of bike lanes or more information,

masser af cykelstier eller mere information,

or lots of different things, but nothing seems to work.

og en masse andre ting, men intet ser ud til at virke.

But all of these attempts have one thing in common.

Men alle disse forsøg har en ting til fælles.

They're basically attempts at figuring out

De er forsøg på at finde ud af

what people should do instead of rush hour car driving.

hvad folk skal gøre istedet for myldretidskørsel.

They're essentially, to a point, attempts at planning

De er i grunden, til et vist punkt, forsøg på at planlægge

what other people should do, planning their life for them.

hvad andre skal gøre, at planlægge livet for dem.

Now, planning a complex social system

At planlægge et komplekst socialt system

is a very hard thing to do, and let me tell you a story.

er meget svært at gøre og lad mig fortælle en histore.

Back in 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell,

Tilbage i 1989 da Berlinmuren faldt

an urban planner in London got a phone call

fik en byplanlægger i London en telefonopringning

from a colleague in Moscow saying, basically,

fra en kollega i Moskva som sagde

"Hi, this is Vladimir. I'd like to know,

"Hej, det er Vladimir. Jeg vil gerne vide

who's in charge of London's bread supply?"

hvem der styrer Londons brødforsyning?"

And the urban planner in London goes,

Og byplanlæggeren i London siger

"What do you mean, who's in charge of London's —

"Hvad mener du med hvem der styrer,

I mean, no one is in charge."

jeg mener, der er ingen der styrer."

"Oh, but surely someone must be in charge.

"Jo, men der må da være nogen der styrer.

I mean, it's a very complicated system. Someone must control all of this."

Jeg mener, det er et meget kompliceret system. Nogen må kontrollere alt dette."

"No. No. No one is in charge.

"Nej, nej, ingen bestemmer.

I mean, it basically -- I haven't really thought of it.

Jeg mener, jeg har aldrig rigtig tænkt over det.

It basically organizes itself."

Det organiserer sig selv."

It organizes itself.

Det organiserer sig selv.

That's an example of a complex social system

Det er et eksempel på et komplekst socialt system

which has the ability of self-organizing,

som har evnen til selvorganisering,

and this is a very deep insight.

og det er en dyb indsigt.

When you try to solve really complex social problems,

Når du prøver at løse rigtig komplekse sociale problemer,

the right thing to do is most of the time

så er det rette at gøre oftest

to create the incentives.

at skabe incitamenter.

You don't plan the details,

Du planlægger ikke detaljerne,

and people will figure out what to do,

og folk finder ud af hvad de skal gøre,

how to adapt to this new framework.

for at tilpasse sig de nye betingelser.

And let's now look at how we can use this insight

Og lad os nu se hvordan vi kan bruge den indsigt

to combat road congestion.

til at bekæmpe trafikpropper.

This is a map of Stockholm, my hometown.

Dette er et kort over min hjemby Stockholm.

Now, Stockholm is a medium-sized city, roughly two million people,

Stockholm er en mellemstor by med ca. 2 millioner mennesker,

but Stockholm also has lots of water and lots of water

men Stockholm er også masser af vand og det betyder

means lots of bridges -- narrow bridges, old bridges --

masser af broer - smalle broer, gamle broer -

which means lots of road congestion.

hvilket giver masser af trafikpropper.

And these red dots show the most congested parts,

Og de røde prikker viser områder med mest trængsel,

which are the bridges that lead into the inner city.

som er broerne ind til den indre by.

And then someone came up with the idea that,

Og så fandt nogen på at,

apart from good public transport,

parallelt med god offentlig transport,

apart from spending money on roads,

parallelt med investeringer i veje,

let's try to charge drivers one or two euros at these bottlenecks.

så prøver vi at at afkræve et par euro af bilisterne ved disse flaskehalse.

Now, one or two euros, that isn't really a lot of money,

Nu er et par euro ikke så mange penge,

I mean compared to parking charges and running costs, etc.,

sammenlignet med parkeringsafgifter og driftsudgifter

so you would probably expect that car drivers

så man skulle tro at bilisterne

wouldn't really react to this fairly small charge.

ikke ville reagere på en så lille afgift.

You would be wrong.

Man måtte tro om igen.

One or two euros was enough to make 20 percent of cars

Et par euro var nok til at 20 procent af bilerne

disappear from rush hours.

forsvandt fra myldretiden.

Now, 20 percent, well, that's a fairly huge figure, you might think,

Du ville måske sige at 20% er et stort tal,

but you've still got 80 percent left of the problem, right?

men vi har stadig 80% af problemet, ikke?

Because you still have 80 percent of the traffic.

For vi har stadig 80% af trafikken.

Now, that's also wrong, because traffic happens to be

Men det er også forkert, for trafikken er

a nonlinear phenomenon, meaning that

et ikke-lineært fænomen, som betyder at

once you reach above a certain capacity threshold

så snart man krydser en bestemt kapacitetsgrænse

then congestion starts to increase really, really rapidly.

begynder trafikproppen at øge meget hurtigt.

But fortunately, it also works the other way around.

Men heldigvis gælder det modsatte også.

If you can reduce traffic even somewhat, then congestion

Hvis du reducerer trafikken en smule, vil trafikpropper

will go down much faster than you might think.

forsvinde hurtigere end du tror.

Now, congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm

Trængselsafgifter blev indført i Stockholm

on January 3, 2006, and the first picture here is a picture

den 3. januar 2006 og det første billede er

of Stockholm, one of the typical streets, January 2.

en typisk vej i Stockholm den 2. januar.

The first day with the congestion charges looked like this.

Den første dag med trængselsafgift så sådan ud.

This is what happens when you take away

Det er hvad der sker når du fjerner

20 percent of the cars from the streets.

20% af bilerne fra gaderne.

You really reduce congestion quite substantially.

Du reducerer virkelig trængselen.

But, well, as I said, I mean, car drivers adapt, right?

Men, som jeg sagde, jeg mener, bilister tilpasser sig, ikke?

So after a while they would all come back because they

Så efter et stykke tid ville de komme tilbage

have sort of gotten used to charges.

fordi de ville vænne sig til afgifterne.

Wrong again. It's now six and a half years ago

Forkert igen. Det er nu seks og et halvt år siden

since the congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm,

trængselsafgiften blev indført i Stockholm,

and we basically have the same low traffic levels still.

og vi har stort set det samme lave trafikniveau.

But you see, there's an interesting gap here in the time series

Men du ser at der er et interessant hul i tidsserierne

in 2007.

i 2007.

Well, the thing is that, the congestion charges,

Sagen er at trængselsafgiften

they were introduced first as a trial, so they were introduced

blev indført først som en forsøgsordning i

in January and then abolished again at the end of July,

januar og så afskaffet igen sidst i juli,

followed by a referendum, and then they were reintroduced

fulgt af en folkeafstemning, og så genindført

again in 2007, which of course was a wonderful scientific opportunity.

igen i 2007, og det var selvfølgelig en stor mulighed for forskning.

I mean, this was a really fun experiment to start with,

Jeg mener, det var et sjovt eksperiment til at begynde med,

and we actually got to do it twice.

og så fik vi lov til at gøre det to gange.

And personally, I would like to do this every once a year or so,

Og personligt gjorde jeg det gerne en gang om året,

but they won't let me do that.

men det ville de ikke lade mig gøre.

But it was fun anyway.

Men det var sjovt alligevel.

So, we followed up. What happened?

Så vi fulgte det op. Hvad skete?

This is the last day with the congestion charges, July 31,

Dette er sidste dag med trængselsafgifter, 31. juli,

and you see the same street but now it's summer,

og vi ser samme vej men om sommeren,

and summer in Stockholm is a very nice

og sommer i Stockholm er en skøn

and light time of the year,

og let tid på året,

and the first day without the congestion charges

og den første dag uden trængselsafgifter

looked like this.

så sådan ud.

All the cars were back again, and you even have to admire

Alle bilerne var tilbage igen og man må beundre

the car drivers. They adapt so extremely quickly.

bilisterne. De tilpasser sig ekstremt hurtigt.

The first day they all came back.

På den første dag var de alle tilbage.

And this effect hanged on. So 2007 figures looked like this.

Og den effekt varede ved. Så 2007 tal så sådan ud.

Now these traffic figures are really exciting

Disse trafiktal er meget spændende

and a little bit surprising and very useful to know,

og lidt overraskende og meget nyttige at vide,

but I would say that the most surprising slide here

men den mest overraskende slide

I'm going to show you today is not this one. It's this one.

jeg vil vise idag er ikke denne, men denne.

This shows public support for congestion pricing of Stockholm,

Den viser opbakningen til trængselsafgift i Stockholm,

and you see that when congestion pricing were introduced

og man ser at da afgiften blev indført

in the beginning of Spring 2006, people were fiercely against it.

i begyndelsen af 2006 var folk stærkt imod den.

Seventy percent of the population didn't want this.

70% af befolkningen ville ikke have det.

But what happened when the congestion charges

Men det der skete da trængselsafgiften kom

were there is not what you would expect, that people hated it more and more.

er ikke hvad man ville forvente, at folk hadede den mere og mere.

No, on the contrary, they changed, up to a point

Nej, tværtimod, de skiftede mening så langt

where we now have 70 percent support for keeping the charges,

at vi nu har 70% støtte til at beholde afgiften,

meaning that -- I mean, let me repeat that:

som betyder, lad mig gentage at:

70 percent of the population in Stockholm

70% af befolkningen i Stockholm

want to keep a price for something that used to be free.

ønsker at beholde en pris for noget som før var gratis.

Okay. So why can that be? Why is that?

Okay. Så hvordan kan det være? Hvorfor det?

Well, think about it this way. Who changed?

Tænk på det sådan: Hvem skiftede mening?

I mean, the 20 percent of the car drivers that disappeared,

Jeg mener, de 20% af bilisterne som forsvandt,

surely they must be discontent in a way.

de må da være utilfredse.

And where did they go? If we can understand this,

Og hvor forsvandt de hen? Hvis vi kan forstå dette

then maybe we can figure out how people can be so happy with this.

kan vi måske forstå hvordan folk kan være så tilfredse.

Well, so we did this huge interview survey

Så vi foretog en stor spørgeundersøgelse

with lots of travel services, and tried to figure out

med mange rejsetilbud og prøvede at finde

who changed, and where did they go?

hvem der skiftede mening og hvor forsvandt de hen?

And it turned out that they don't know themselves. (Laughter)

Og det viser sig at de ikke selv ved det. (Latter)

For some reason, the car drivers are --

Af en eller anden grund er bilisterne

they are confident they actually drive the same way that they used to do.

overbevist om at de kører som de altid har gjort.

And why is that? It's because that travel patterns

Og hvordan kan det være? Det er fordi rejsemønstrene

are much less stable than you might think.

er meget mindre stabile end du tror.

Each day, people make new decisions, and people change

Hver dag tager folk nye beslutninger og de forandrer sig

and the world changes around them, and each day

og verden omkring dem forandrer sig, og hver dag

all of these decisions are sort of nudged ever so slightly

bliver alle disse valg skubbet en smule

away from rush hour car driving

væk fra myldretidskørsel

in a way that people don't even notice.

på en måde folk ikke mærker selv.

They're not even aware of this themselves.

De er ikke engang klar over det.

And the other question, who changed their mind?

Og det andet spørgsmål, hvem skiftede mening?

Who changed their opinion, and why?

Hvem ændrede holdning og hvorfor?

So we did another interview survey, tried to figure out

Vi gjorde en anden spørgeundersøgelse for at finde

why people changed their mind, and what type of group changed their minds?

hvorfor folk skiftede mening og hvilke grupper skiftede mening?

And after analyzing the answers, it turned out that

Og efter at have analyseret svarene viste det sig

more than half of them believe that they haven't changed their minds.

at mere end halvdelen tror de ikke har skiftet mening.

They're actually confident that they have

De er faktisk overbevist om at de altid

liked congestion pricing all along.

har været glad for trængselsafgiften.

Which means that we are now in a position

Det betyder at vi nu

where we have reduced traffic across this toll cordon

har reduceret trafikken gennem bommene

with 20 percent, and reduced congestion by enormous numbers,

med 20% og reduceret trafikpropperne enormt,

and people aren't even aware that they have changed,

og folk er ikke klar over at de har ændret mening

and they honestly believe that they have liked this all along.

og tror at de har kunnet lide det hele tiden.

This is the power of nudges when trying to solve

Dette er styrken i de små skub når man vil løse

complex social problems, and when you do that,

komplekse sociale problemer, og når du gør det,

you shouldn't try to tell people how to adapt.

burde du ikke fortælle folk hvordan de skal tilpasse sig.

You should just nudge them in the right direction.

Du burde kun skubbe dem lidt i rigtig retning.

And if you do it right,

Og gør du det rigtigt,

people will actually embrace the change,

vil folk faktisk omfavne ændringen,

and if you do it right, people will actually even like it.

og hvis gjort rigtigt vil folk elske det.

Thank you. (Applause)

Tak. (Applaus)