Shlomo Benartzi: Saving for tomorrow, tomorrow

230,758 views ・ 2012-02-23

TED


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Translator: Etrit Adami Reviewer: Dita Bytyci
00:15
I'm going to talk today about saving more,
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Une do te flase sot per te kursyer me shume,
00:18
but not today, tomorrow.
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por jo sot, neser.
00:21
I'm going to talk about Save More Tomorrow.
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Une do te flas per Te Kursejme Me Shume Neser.
00:23
It's a program that Richard Thaler
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Eshte programi qe Richard Thaler
00:25
from the University of Chicago and I
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nga Universiteti i Çikagos dhe une
00:27
devised maybe 15 years ago.
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qe e kemi shpikur ndoshta 15 vjet me pare.
00:30
The program, in a sense,
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Ky program, nje nje menyre,
00:32
is an example of behavioral finance
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eshte nje shembull i sjelljes financiare
00:34
on steroids --
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ne steroide --
00:36
how we could really use behavioral finance.
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se si ne vertet mundemi te perdorim sjelljen financiare.
00:39
Now you might ask, what is behavioral finance?
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Tani ju mund te pyesni, cfare eshte sjellje financiare?
00:42
So let's think about how we manage our money.
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Le te mendojme rreth asaj se si ne i menaxhojme parate tona.
00:45
Let's start with mortgages.
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Le te fillojme me garancite hipotekore.
00:48
It's kind of a recent topic,
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Eshte ceshtje e kohes se fundit,
00:50
at least in the U.S.
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te pakten ne Amerike.
00:52
A lot of people buy
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Shumica e njerezve blejne
00:54
the biggest house they can afford,
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shtepine me te madhe qe mund te blene,
00:57
and actually slightly bigger than that.
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dhe faktikisht pak me te madhe se ajo.
01:00
And then they foreclose.
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Dhe me pas ata i heqin të drejtën mbi pronën e vënë në hipotekë
01:03
And then they blame the banks
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Dhe me pas ata fajesojne bankat
01:05
for being the bad guys who gave them the mortgages.
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qe s'jane te mira duke i dhene atyre hipoteken.
01:08
Let's also think about
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Le te mendojme
01:10
how we manage risks --
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si te menaxhojme riskun --
01:12
for example, investing in the stock market.
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p.sh, duke investuar ne tregun e aksioneve.
01:14
Two years ago, three years ago, about four years ago,
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Dy vjet me pare, tre vjet me pare, rreth pese vjet me perpara,
01:17
markets did well.
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tregjet ishin mire,
01:19
We were risk takers, of course.
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Ne morem persiper riskun, sigurisht.
01:22
Then market stocks seize
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Tregu aksione pati nje renie
01:24
and we're like, "Wow.
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dhe ne mendian "Wow.
01:26
These losses, they feel, emotionally,
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Keto humbje, ata i ndjene, emocionalisht,
01:29
they feel very different
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ndihen shume ndryshe
01:32
from what we actually thought about it
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nga cfare ne menduam rreth kesaj
01:35
when markets were going up."
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kur tregjet po ngriheshin."
01:37
So we're probably not doing a great job
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Keshtu qe ne me sa duhet nuk po benin ndonje pune te padhe
01:40
when it comes to risk taking.
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kur vjen puna per te marre persiper rrezikun.
01:42
How many of you have iPhones?
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Sa Iphone keni ?
01:45
Anyone? Wonderful.
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Ndonjeri? Shume mire.
01:48
I would bet many more of you
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Une ve bast qe shumica nga ju
01:51
insure your iPhone --
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siguroni telefonin tuaj --
01:54
you're implicitly buying insurance by having an extended warranty.
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ju pa dyshim blini sigurimin duke pasur nje garanci te zgjatur.
01:57
What if you lose your iPhone?
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Cfare ndodh nese ju humbet telefoni ?
01:59
What if you do this?
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N.q.s ju beni kete?
02:01
How many of you have kids?
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Sa nga ju keni femije?
02:03
Anyone?
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Ndonjeri?
02:05
Keep your hands up
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Mbani duart lart
02:07
if you have sufficient life insurance.
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n.q.s keni sihurimin e jetes te mjaftueshem.
02:10
I see a lot of hands coming down.
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Uen po shof shume duar qe ulen poshte.
02:12
I would predict,
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Une do te parashikoja,
02:14
if you're a representative sample,
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nqs se ti je perfaqesues per shembull,
02:16
that many more of you
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qe me shume se ju
02:18
insure your iPhones than your lives,
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sigurojne Iphonet sesa jeten tuaj,
02:21
even when you have kids.
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madje edhe kur keni femije.
02:23
We're not doing that well when it comes to insurance.
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Ne nuk po dukemi dhe aq mire kur vjen puna tek siguracioni.
02:26
The average American household
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Mesatarja Amrikane e nje familje
02:30
spends 1,000 dollars a year
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shpenzon 1,000 dollare ne vit
02:33
on lotteries.
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per llotari.
02:35
And I know it sounds crazy.
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Dhe e di qe eshte cmenduri.
02:38
How many of you spend a thousand dollars a year on lotteries?
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Sa nga shpenzojne mijra dollare ne vit per llotarira?
02:41
No one.
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Asnjeri.
02:43
So that tells us that the people not in this room
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Kjo na tregon ne qe njerzit jo ne kete ambjent
02:46
are spending more than a thousand
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shpenzojne me shume se nje mije
02:48
to get the average to a thousand.
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per te arritur tek mesatarja e nje mijes.
02:51
Low-income people
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Njerzit me te ardhura te vogla
02:53
spend a lot more than a thousand on lotteries.
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shpenzojne shume me shume se nje mije neper llotarira.
02:57
So where does it take us?
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Pra ku do te na coje kjo >
02:59
We're not doing a great job managing money.
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Ne nuk po bejme ndonjepune te madhe me menaxhimin e lekut.
03:02
Behavioral finance is really a combination
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Vendimet financiar eshte me te vertet nje kombinim
03:05
of psychology and economics,
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i psikologjise dhe ekonomikut,
03:07
trying to understand
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te arrish te kuptosh
03:09
the money mistakes people make.
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gabimet qe njerzit bejne me parane.
03:11
And I can keep standing here
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Dhe do te qendroj ketu
03:13
for the 12 minutes and 53 seconds that I have left
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per 12 minuta dhe 53 sekonda qe me kane mbetur
03:17
and make fun of all sorts of ways
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dhe te argetohetm me te gjitha menyrat e zgjedhjet
03:19
we manage money,
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per menagimin e parase,
03:21
and at the end you're going to ask, "How can we help people?"
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dhe ne fund ju do te me pyesni, " Si mund te ndihmojme njerzit?"
03:24
And that's what I really want to focus on today.
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Dhe kjo eshte me te vertet ajo qe dua te fokusohem sot.
03:27
How do we take an understanding
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Si mund kemi nje kuptim
03:29
of the money mistakes people make,
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te gabimeve qe njerzit bejne me parane,
03:32
and then turning the behavioral challenges
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dhe pastaj te kthejme sjelljet sfiduese
03:35
into behavioral solutions?
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ne ate sjellje te zgjidhshme?
03:37
And what I'm going to talk about today
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Dhe une do te flas sot rreth
03:39
is Save More Tomorrow.
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programin Te Kursejme Me Shume Neser.
03:41
I want to address the issue
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Dua ta drejtoj kete ceshtje
03:43
of savings.
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tek kursimet.
03:45
We have on the screen
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Ne kemi ne monitor
03:47
a representative sample
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nje shembull tipik
03:49
of 100 Americans.
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te 100 Amrikaneve.
03:51
And we're going to look at their saving behavior.
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Dhe ne do te shikojme sjelljen e ketyre kursimeve.
03:54
First thing to notice is,
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E para qe veme re eshte ,
03:56
half of them
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qe gjysma e tyre
03:58
do not even have access
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nuk kane te drejte
04:00
to a 401(k) plan.
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ne nje plan 401(k).
04:02
They cannot make savings easy.
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Ata nuk mund te kursejne kaq lehte.
04:05
They cannot have money go away from their paycheck
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Ata nuk mund te lene t'ju ikin leket nga rroga
04:08
into a 401(k) plan
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tek nje plan 401(k)
04:10
before they see it,
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perpara se ta shohin ate,
04:12
before they can touch it.
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perpara se ta prekin ate.
04:14
What about the remaining half of the people?
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Po me gysmen tjeter te njerzve qe ngelen?
04:17
Some of them elect not to save.
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Disa nga ata vendosin te mos kursejne.
04:20
They're just too lazy.
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Ata jane shume pertace.
04:22
They never get around to logging into a complicated website
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Ata asnjehere nuk do te logohen ne nje uebsait te komplikuar
04:25
and doing 17 clicks to join the 401(k) plan.
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dhe te klikojne 17 here per t'ju bashkuar planit 401(k) .
04:28
And then they have to decide how they're going to invest
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Dhe me pas ata duhet te vendosin se si do ti investojne
04:30
in their 52 choices,
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ne 52 mundesite e tyre,
04:32
and they never heard about what is a money market fund.
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dhe ata kurre nuk e kane degjuar cfare eshte nje depozite tregu.
04:36
And they get overwhelmed and the just don't join.
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Dhe ata jane te mbingarukuar dhe ata thjesht nuk e bejene kete.
04:38
How many people end up saving to a 401(k) plan?
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Sa njerez i shkojne deri ne fund planit 401(k) ?
04:43
One third of Americans.
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Nje e treta e Amerikaneve.
04:46
Two thirds are not saving now.
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Dy te tretat nuk kursejne sot .
04:48
Are they saving enough?
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A arrijne te kursejne boll?
04:50
Take out those
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Merreni me mend
04:52
who say they save too little.
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kush thote qe ata po kursejne shume pak.
04:54
One out of 10
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Nje nga te 10-tet
04:56
are saving enough.
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a jane duke kursyer mjaft.
04:59
Nine out of 10
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9-te nga 10
05:01
either cannot save through their 401(k) plan,
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per me teper kursen permes planin te yre 401(k),
05:04
decide not to save -- or don't decide --
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vendosin te mos kursejne-- ose nuk vendosin --
05:07
or save too little.
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ose kursejne shume pak.
05:10
We think we have a problem
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Ne mendojme se kemi nje problem
05:12
of people saving too much.
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te njerzve qe kursejne shume.
05:14
Let's look at that.
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Le te shikojme kete.
05:16
We have one person --
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Ne kemi nje person --
05:18
well, actually we're going to slice him in half
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ok , ne do ta ndajme ate ne gjysem
05:21
because it's less than one percent.
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sepse eshte me pak se nje percend.
05:24
Roughly half a percent of Americans
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Perafersisht gjysma perqind e Amerikaneve
05:27
feel that they save too much.
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ndjejne qe ata kursejne shume.
05:32
What are we going to do about it?
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Cfare do te bejme rreth kesaj ?
05:34
That's what I really want to focus on.
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Kjo eshte vertete aty ku dua te fokusohem.
05:36
We have to understand
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Ne duhet te kutojme
05:38
why people are not saving,
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perse njerzit nuk po kursejne,
05:40
and then we can hopefully flip
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dhe pastaj ne fatmirsisht te ndyshojme
05:42
the behavioral challenges
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sjelljen dhe sfidat
05:44
into behavioral solutions,
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ne nje zgjidhje te sjellure,
05:46
and then see how powerful it might be.
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dhe me pas te shohim se sa e forte mund te jete.
05:49
So let me divert for a second
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Me lejoni te transferoje per nje sekonde
05:51
as we're going to identify the problems,
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sikurse do te gjenim problemet
05:53
the challenges, the behavioral challenges,
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sfidat, sfidat e sjelljes,
05:56
that prevent people from saving.
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keto i ndalojne njerzit te kursejne.
05:58
I'm going to divert and talk about bananas and chocolate.
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Une do te tranferoje dhe te flas rreth bananeve dhe cokollata.
06:02
Suppose we had another wonderful TED event next week.
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Te supzojme se ne bejme nje event tjeter te TED-it javen qe vjen.
06:05
And during the break
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Dhe gjate pushimit
06:07
there would be a snack
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do te kishte ndonje sanduic
06:09
and you could choose bananas or chocolate.
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dhe qe mu d te zgjidhni bananet ose cokollatat.
06:11
How many of you think you would like to have bananas
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Dhe sa nga ju do te mendonit sikur te kishit bananet
06:14
during this hypothetical TED event next week?
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gjate ketij eventi hippotetik te TEd-it javen qe vjen?
06:16
Who would go for bananas?
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Kush do te gjidhte bananet?
06:18
Wonderful.
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E mrekullueshme.
06:20
I predict scientifically
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Une parashikoj shkencerisht
06:22
74 percent of you will go for bananas.
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74% nga ju do te zgjidhte bananet.
06:25
Well that's at least what one wonderful study predicted.
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Dhe kjo eshte te pakten ajo qe nje nga studimet e mrekullueshme kane parashikuar.
06:30
And then count down the days
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Dhe pastaj te numurojne ditet
06:33
and see what people ended up eating.
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dhe te shohin cfare njerzit kane mbaruar se ngreni.
06:38
The same people that imagined themselves
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Te njejtit njerz qe e imagjinuar vehten e tyre
06:41
eating the bananas
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duke ngrene banane
06:43
ended up eating chocolates
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mbaruan duke ngrene cokollata
06:45
a week later.
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nje jave me vone.
06:47
Self-control
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Vet-kontrolli
06:49
is not a problem in the future.
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nuk eshte nje problem per te arshmen.
06:52
It's only a problem now
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Eshte vetem problem tani
06:54
when the chocolate is next to us.
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kur cokollata eshte mbs nesh .
06:58
What does it have to do with time and savings,
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Cfare duhet te kete per te bere me kohen dhe kursimet,
07:01
this issue of immediate gratification?
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kjo c'eshtje e plotesimit te menjehershem?
07:04
Or as some economists call it, present bias.
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Ose disa ekonomiste e quajne ate, paragjykim i tanishem.
07:08
We think about saving. We know we should be saving.
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Ne mendojme rreth kursimeve. Ne e dime qe duhet te kursejme.
07:10
We know we'll do it next year, but today let us go and spend.
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Ne e dime qe ne do ta bejme ate vitin tjeter, por sot lete te harxhojme.
07:13
Christmas is coming,
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Krishtlindjet jane duke afruar,
07:15
we might as well buy a lot of gifts for everyone we know.
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ne mund shume mire te bleme shume dhurata per kedo qe njohim.
07:18
So this issue of present bias
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keshtu qe kjo c'eshtje e paragykimit tone
07:22
causes us to think about saving,
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shkakton tek ne per te menduar per kursimet,
07:24
but end up spending.
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dhe perfundon duke i prishur ato
07:26
Let me now talk
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Le te flasim tani
07:28
about another behavioral obstacle to saving
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rreth nje jeter pengese ne sjellje per kusimet
07:30
having to do with inertia.
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duke pasur te beje me nje inertesi.
07:32
But again, a little diversion
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Por perseri, nje deviim i vogel
07:34
to the topic of organ donation.
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per c'eshtjen e dhurimit te organeve.
07:37
Wonderful study comparing different countries.
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Nje studim i mrekullueshem duke krakasur vende te ndryshme.
07:40
We're going to look at two similar countries,
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Do te shikojme dy qytete te ngjashme,
07:43
Germany and Austria.
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Gjermania dhe Austria.
07:46
And in Germany,
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Dhe ne Gjermani,
07:48
if you would like to donate your organs --
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nqs se ti do te dhurosh oraganet e tua --
07:50
God forbid something really bad
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Zoti te falte eshte dicka e keqe
07:52
happens to you --
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do te ndodhi ty --
07:54
when you get your driving license or an I.D.,
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kur mer patenten ose karten e identitetit.,
07:57
you check the box saying,
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ti kontrollon kutine e kursimeve,
07:59
"I would like to donate my organs."
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"Une dua te dhuroj organet e mia."
08:01
Not many people like checking boxes.
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Jo shume njerez i pleqejne listat.
08:03
It takes effort. You need to think.
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Kerkon perpjekje. te duhet te mendohesh.
08:05
Twelve percent do.
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12 % e bejne kete.
08:08
Austria, a neighboring country,
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Austria, nje shtet fqinj,
08:11
slightly similar, slightly different.
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lehtesisht te ngashem, pak te ndryshem.
08:13
What's the difference?
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Kush eshte ndryshimi?
08:15
Well, you still have choice.
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e pra, ju prape keni nje zgedhje.
08:17
You will decide
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Ti do te vendosesh
08:19
whether you want to donate your organs or not.
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nese do ti dhurosh organet apo jo.
08:22
But when you get your driving license,
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Por kur ti merr patenten,
08:24
you check the box
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ti shenon tel lista
08:26
if you do not want to donate your organ.
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nqs ti nuk do qe ti dhurosh organet.
08:30
Nobody checks boxes.
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Asnjeri nuk i shenon tek lista.
08:32
That's kind of too much effort.
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Ky eshte nje lloj stermundimi i madh.
08:34
One percent check the box. The rest do nothing.
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1% e njerzve e shenojne ate. Te tjeret nuk bejne asgje.
08:37
Doing nothing is very common.
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Per te mos bere asgje eshte shume e lehte.
08:39
Not many people check boxes.
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Jo shume njerzez i shenojne kutite e vogla te mundesive.
08:42
What are the implications
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Cfare jane keto perpjekje
08:44
to saving lives
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per te shptuar jete
08:46
and having organs available?
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dhe te kesh disa oragane ne gjendje?
08:49
In Germany, 12 percent check the box.
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Ne Gjermani, 12% e zgjedhin kete gje.
08:51
Twelve percent are organ donors.
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12% jane organe te dhuruara.
08:54
Huge shortage of organs,
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Shume sasi e paket e organeve,
08:56
God forbid, if you need one.
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Zoti i perjashton, nws te duhet nje.
08:58
In Austria, again, nobody checks the box.
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Ne Austri, perseri, asnjeri nuk e shenon tek lista.
09:01
Therefore, 99 percent of people
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Prandaj, 99% e njerzve
09:04
are organ donors.
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jane organe te dhuruara.
09:06
Inertia, lack of action.
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Kjo amulli, munges e veprimit.
09:08
What is the default setting
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Kush eshte kundravajtja
09:10
if people do nothing,
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nqs se njerzit bejne dicka,
09:12
if they keep procrastinating, if they don't check the boxes?
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nqs se ata i vonojne, nqs nuk i bejne nje zgjadhje tek lista?
09:15
Very powerful.
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Shume e fuqishme.
09:17
We're going to talk
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Ne do te flasim
09:19
about what happens if people are overwhelmed and scared
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rreth asaj qe cfare ndodh nqs se njerzit jane te mbingarkuar dhe te friksuar
09:23
to make their 401(k) choices.
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per te bere zgjedhjet e planit 401(k).
09:26
Are we going to make them automatically join the plan,
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Ne do ti bejme ato ne menyre automatike per t'ju bashkuar planit,
09:29
or are they going to be left out?
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ose ata do te lihen jashte >
09:31
In too many 401(k) plans,
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Ne disa raste te planit 401(k),
09:34
if people do nothing,
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nqs njerzit nuk bejne asgje,
09:36
it means they're not saving for retirement,
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kjo do te thote qe ata nuk po kursejne per pension,
09:39
if they don't check the box.
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nws se ata nuk e bejne zgjedhjen tek kutia.
09:41
And checking the box takes effort.
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Dhe te shenonsh tek kutia kerkon perpjekje.
09:44
So we've chatted about a couple of behavioral challenges.
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Keshtu qe ne folem rreth disa sfida e sjelljes.
09:47
One more before we flip the challenges into solutions,
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Edhe njehere para se te kthejme sfidat ne zgjidhje,
09:50
having to do with monkeys and apples.
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duke pasur te bejme me majmune dhe molle..
09:52
No, no, no, this is a real study
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Jo, jo, jo, ky eshte nje sudim i vertete
09:54
and it's got a lot to do with behavioral economics.
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dhe ka te beje shume me sjelljen ekonomike.
09:58
One group of monkeys gets an apple, they're pretty happy.
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Nje grup majmunesh marrin e molle, ata jane shume te gezuar.
10:01
The other group gets two apples, one is taken away.
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Grupi tjeter marrin dy molle, njera i merret.
10:03
They still have an apple left.
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Atyre ju ka mbetur edhe nje.
10:05
They're really mad.
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Ata jane me te verte te inatosur.
10:08
Why have you taken our apple?
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Pse na i morret mollen tone?
10:11
This is the notion of loss aversion.
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Ky eshte enocioni i humbjes se mospelqimit.
10:14
We hate losing stuff,
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Ne merzitemi kur na humbin gjerat,
10:16
even if it doesn't mean a lot of risk.
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edhe pse madje nuk ka shume rrezik.
10:19
You would hate to go to the ATM,
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Do te uuroje te shkojet te ATM,
10:22
take out 100 dollars
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dhe te terheqesh 100 dollare
10:24
and notice that you lost one of those $20 bills.
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dhe ve re qe ti ke humbur nje nga keto biletat 20 dollareshe.
10:26
It's very painful,
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Eshte shume e dhimbshme,
10:28
even though it doesn't mean anything.
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megjithse, nuk do te thote gje.
10:30
Those 20 dollars might have been a quick lunch.
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Keto 20 dollaremund te ishin nje dreke e shpejte.
10:34
So this notion of loss aversion
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Pra ky nocion i mospeqimit
10:38
kicks in when it comes to savings too,
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duket sikur te shkelmon kur vjen puna edhe per kursimet,
10:41
because people, mentally
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sepse njerzit , menderisht
10:43
and emotionally and intuitively
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dhe emocionalisht dhe intuitivisht
10:46
frame savings as a loss
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forme e kursimit si nje humbje
10:48
because I have to cut my spending.
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sepse mua me duhet te mos prishe leke.
10:51
So we talked about
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Keshtu qe ne folem rreth
10:53
all sorts of behavioral challenges
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te gjitha llojete sfidave te sjelljes
10:55
having to do with savings eventually.
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qe kane te bjene me kursimit eventualisht.
10:59
Whether you think about immediate gratification,
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Kurdo qe ti mendon rreth pelqimi te domosdoshem,
11:02
and the chocolates versus bananas,
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dhe cokollatat ndryshe babanet,
11:05
it's just painful to save now.
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jane te dhimbshme per ti kursyer tani.
11:08
It's a lot more fun
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Eshte me shume nje loje
11:10
to spend now.
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per te prishur leke tani.
11:12
We talked about inertia and organ donations
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Ne folem rreth inertesise dhe dhurimit te oraganeve
11:15
and checking the box.
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dhe lista per tu plotesuar.
11:17
If people have to check a lot of boxes
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Nws se njerzit kane per she mbushur shume lista
11:19
to join a 401(k) plan,
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per tu fuur ne planin(401k),
11:21
they're going to keep procrastinating
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ata do te vazhdojne te mbajne te vonuar
11:23
and not join.
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dhe te mos bashkohet.
11:25
And last, we talked about loss aversion,
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Ne fund, ne folem per humbjen e mospelqimit,
11:27
and the monkeys and the apples.
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dhe per majmunet dhe mollet.
11:29
If people frame mentally
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Nqs se njerzit coptohen menderisht
11:32
saving for retirement as a loss,
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per te kursyer per pensionin si nje humbje,
11:35
they're not going to be saving for retirement.
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ata nuk do te kursejne per pensionin.
11:38
So we've got these challenges,
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Keshtu, qe kemi keto sfida,
11:40
and what Richard Thaler and I
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dhe cfare Richard Thaler dhe une
11:42
were always fascinated by --
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jemi gjithmone te mrekulluar nga --
11:44
take behavioral finance,
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marrja e sjelljes financiare,
11:46
make it behavioral finance on steroids
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suke e bere sjelljen financiare mbi steroidet
11:48
or behavioral finance 2.0
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ose sjelljes financiare 2.0
11:50
or behavioral finance in action --
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ose sjelljes financiare ne veprim --
11:52
flip the challenges into solutions.
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te ktheje sfidat ne zgjdhje.
11:56
And we came up with an embarrassingly simple solution
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Dhe ne erdhem me nje ne zgjidhje jashtezakonisht te thjeshte
11:59
called Save More, not today, Tomorrow.
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e quajtur Kurse Shume, jo sot, Neser.
12:03
How is it going to solve the challenges
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Si do ti zgjidhe sfidat
12:05
we chatted about?
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qe ne folem rreth?
12:07
If you think about the problem
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Nqs mendon rreth problemit
12:09
of bananas versus chocolates,
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te bananeve kunder cokollatave,
12:11
we think we're going to eat bananas next week.
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ne mendojme se do shkojne te hame banane javen qe vjen.
12:14
We think we're going to save more next year.
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Ne mendojme qe do e kursejme para vitin qe vjen.
12:17
Save More Tomorrow
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Kurse me shume Neser
12:20
invites employees
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fton puntoret
12:22
to save more maybe next year --
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per te kursyer mndoshta me shume vitin tketer --
12:24
sometime in the future
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disa here ne te ardhmen
12:26
when we can imagine ourselves
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kur ne te imagjinojme vehten tone
12:28
eating bananas,
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duke ngrene banane,
12:30
volunteering more in the community,
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per te qene vullnetare me shume ne komunitet,
12:32
exercising more and doing all the right things on the planet.
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duke bere me shume dhe duke bere gjerat e duhura nekete planet.
12:36
Now we also talked about checking the box
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Tani ne githshtu folem rreth kutise ne listen e gjerave
12:39
and the difficulty of taking action.
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dhe veshtiresia eshte per te vepruar.
12:42
Save More Tomorrow
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Kurse me shune Neser
12:44
makes it easy.
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beje te lehte.
12:46
It's an autopilot.
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eshte si nje atuto pilot.
12:48
Once you tell me you would like to save more in the future,
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Njehere me thate mua qe donit te kursenit me shume leke ne te ardhmen,
12:52
let's say every January
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ke te themi ne Janar
12:54
you're going to be saving more automatically
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ju do te mund te kurseni ne menyre automatike
12:57
and it's going to go away from your paycheck to the 401(k) plan
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dhe do t'ju dali nga fatura e planit 401(k)
13:00
before you see it, before you touch it,
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perpara se ta shifni , perpara se ta prekni ate,
13:02
before you get the issue
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perpara se te vini te c'eshtja
13:04
of immediate gratification.
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e kenaqsise te menjehershme.
13:07
But what are we going to do about the monkeys
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Por cfare do te bejme rreth majuneve
13:10
and loss aversion?
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dhe mospelqimit humbes
13:12
Next January comes
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Janarin qe vjen
13:14
and people might feel that if they save more,
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njerzit mund te kujtojne qe kane kursyer me shume,
13:16
they have to spend less, and that's painful.
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dhe kane harxhuar me pak , dhe kjo eshte e dhimbshme.
13:20
Well, maybe it shouldn't be just January.
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E pra, ndoshta nuk duhet te jete Janari.
13:22
Maybe we should make people save more
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Ndoshta ne duhet ti bejme njerzit qe te kursejne me shume
13:25
when they make more money.
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kur ata bejne me shume leke.
13:28
That way, when they make more money, when they get a pay raise,
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Menyra , kur ata bejne leke , kur ata marrin nje ngritje rroge,
13:31
they don't have to cut their spending.
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ata nuk mendojne per te ukin shpenzime e tyre.
13:35
They take a little bit
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Ata marrin shume pak nga kjo rritjene faturen e shtepise
13:37
of the increase in the paycheck home
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dhe shpenzojne me shume --
13:39
and spend more --
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dhe shpenzojne me shume --
13:41
take a little bit of the increase
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merr shume pak nga kjo ngrtje
13:43
and put it in a 401(k) plan.
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dhe e fusrin tek plani 401(K).
13:45
So that is the program,
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Pro ky eshte programi,
13:47
embarrassingly simple,
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pa
13:49
but as we're going to see,
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por sic do te shihim me vone,
13:51
extremely powerful.
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jashtezakonisht i fuqishem.
13:53
We first implemented it,
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Se pare ne e implementojme ate,
13:55
Richard Thaler and I,
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Richard Thaler dhe Une,
13:57
back in 1998.
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brapa ne 1998.
14:00
Mid-sized company in the Midwest,
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Nje kompany i mesme ne Midewest,
14:03
blue collar employees
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me puntore me kollare blu
14:05
struggling to pay their bills
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qe perpiqen te paguajne faturat e tyre
14:07
repeatedly told us
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duke e perseritur na thonin neve
14:09
they cannot save more right away.
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qe ata nuk mund te kursejne para menjane.
14:12
Saving more today is not an option.
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Per te kursyer sot nuk eshte nje opsion.
14:15
We invited them to save
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Ne i propozuam ayre per te kursyer
14:17
three percentage points more
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tre perqind te pike me shume
14:20
every time they get a pay raise.
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cdo here qe ata merrin nje ngritje.
14:23
And here are the results.
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Dhe ja ku jane reszultatet.
14:26
We're seeing here a three and a half-year period,
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Ne jemi duke pare ketu tre dhe nje gjysem periudhe,
14:28
four pay raises,
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kater nritje pagesash,
14:30
people who were struggling to save,
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njerzit qe perpiqeshin te kursenin,
14:32
were saving three percent of their paycheck,
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po kursenin 3 perqind te faturave te tyre,
14:34
three and a half years later
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tre vjet e gjysem me vone
14:36
saving almost four times as much,
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kursenin pothuajse 4 here me shume ,
14:39
almost 14 percent.
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pothuajse 14 perqind.
14:42
And there's shoes and bicycles
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Dhe kemi kaepuce dhe bicikleta
14:44
and things on this chart
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dhe disa gjerat ne kete diagram
14:46
because I don't want to just throw numbers
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sepse une nuk dua te tregoj tani vetem shifra
14:48
in a vacuum.
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njehapsire.
14:50
I want, really, to think about the fact
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Une dua, vertete, te mendoj rreth faktit
14:53
that saving four times more
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qe kur kusen 4 here me shume
14:55
is a huge difference
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eshte nje ndyshim i madh
14:57
in terms of the lifestyle
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ne menyre e te jetuarit
14:59
that people will be able to afford.
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qe njerzit mund te jene ne gjendje per ti marre.
15:01
It's real.
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Eshte e vertet.
15:03
It's not just numbers on a piece of paper.
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Nuk jane vetem numra ne nje cope letre.
15:06
Whereas with saving three percent,
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Ndersa me kursimet tre perqind,
15:08
people might have to add nice sneakers
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njerzit mund te kene atlete te
15:10
so they can walk,
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keshtu qe ata mund te ecin,
15:12
because they won't be able to afford anything else,
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sepse nuk do te jene ne gjendje per te blere ndonje gje jeter,
15:16
when they save 14 percent
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kur ata kursejne 14%
15:18
they might be able to maybe have nice dress shoes
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ata mund te kene mundesi te kene edhe kepuce kostumi
15:21
to walk to the car to drive.
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per te ecur dhe per te rejtuar makinen.
15:24
This is a real difference.
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Ky eshte nje ndryshim i madh.
15:26
By now, about 60 percent of the large companies
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Por tani rreth 60% e kompanive te medhaja
15:31
actually have programs like this in place.
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aktualisht kane programe te tilla ne kete vend.
15:34
It's been part of the Pension Protection Act.
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Ka qene pjese e Aktit Brojtes te Pensionit.
15:37
And needless to say that Thaler and I
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Dhe e pa nevojshme per te thene qe Thaleri dhe Une
15:39
have been blessed to be part of this program
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jane te bekuar per te qene pjese e ketij programi
15:42
and make a difference.
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dhe te bejme ndryshime.
15:44
Let me wrap
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Me lejoni te perfundoj
15:46
with two key messages.
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me dy mesazhe te rendesihme.
15:49
One is behavioral finance
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Njera eshte veprimet financiare
15:52
is extremely powerful.
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jane jashtezakonisht te fuqishme.
15:55
This is just one example.
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Ky eshte vetem nje shembull.
15:58
Message two
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Mesazhi dyte
16:00
is there's still a lot to do.
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eshte qe ka shume per te bere.
16:02
This is really the tip of the iceberg.
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Ky eshte tamam maja e ajbergut.
16:05
If you think about people and mortgages
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Nqs ju mendoni rreth njerzit dhe hipotekat
16:08
and buying houses and then not being able to pay for it,
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duke blere shtepi e tejpor te mos qene e mundur ti paguash ato,
16:11
we need to think about that.
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ne na duhet te mendojme rreth tyre.
16:13
If you're thinking about people taking too much risk
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Nqs ju jeni duke menduar rreth njerzve qe marrin shume reziqe
16:16
and not understanding how much risk they're taking
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dhe qe nuk kuptojne se sa rrezik ata kane marre
16:19
or taking too little risk,
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ose te duke marre pak,
16:21
we need to think about that.
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ne duhet te mendojme rreth kesaj.
16:23
If you think about people spending a thousand dollars a year
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Nqs ju mendoni rreth njerzve qe shpenzojne mijra dollare ne vit
16:26
on lottery tickets,
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ne bileta lloratish,
16:28
we need to think about that.
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ne duhet te mendojem rreth kesaj.
16:30
The average actually,
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Mesatarja aktualisht,
16:32
the record is in Singapore.
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rekordi eshte ne Singapore.
16:34
The average household
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Mesatarja e nje pronari
16:36
spends $4,000 a year on lottery tickets.
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shpenzon $4,000 nje vite per bitela llotarie.
16:39
We've got a lot to do,
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Ne na duhet shume per te bere,
16:41
a lot to solve,
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shume per te zgjidhur,
16:43
also in the retirement area
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gjithashtu ne pjesen e pensionit
16:46
when it comes to what people do with their money
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kur vjen puna se c'fare njerzit bejne me parate e tyre
16:48
after retirement.
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mbas pensionit.
16:50
One last question:
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Nje pyetje e fundit:
16:52
How many of you feel comfortable
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Sa nga ju ndiheni te rrehatshem
16:55
that as you're planning for retirement
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se qe nga momenti ju planifikoni per planin e pensionit
16:57
you have a really solid plan
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ju keni nje plan te forte
17:00
when you're going to retire,
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kur ju do te dilni ne pension,
17:02
when you're going to claim Social Security benefits,
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kur ju do te shkoni per te kerkuar perfitimete Social Security
17:05
what lifestyle to expect,
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c'fare lloj jete ju prisni,
17:07
how much to spend every month
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sa shume shpenzon cdo muaj
17:09
so you're not going to run out of money?
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keshtu qe ju nuk do te nglelni pa leke?
17:11
How many of you feel you have a solid plan for the future
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Sa nga ju ndiejne qe kane nje plan te forte per te ardhmen
17:14
when it comes to post-retirement decisions.
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kur vjen puna per vendimet e mbas-pensionit.
17:19
One, two, three, four.
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Nje, dy, tre, kater.
17:22
Less than three percent
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Me pak se tre perqind
17:24
of a very sophisticated audience.
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e ketij auditori te sofistikuar.
17:26
Behavioral finance has a long way.
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Veprimet financiare kane nje rruge te gjate.
17:29
There's a lot of opportunities
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Ka shume mundesira
17:31
to make it powerful again and again and again.
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per ta bere ate te fuqishem perseri dhe perseri dhe perseri.
17:35
Thank you.
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Falemderit.
17:37
(Applause)
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(Duartrokitje )
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