Shlomo Benartzi: Saving for tomorrow, tomorrow

233,625 views ・ 2012-02-23

TED


Ju lutemi, klikoni dy herë mbi titrat në anglisht më poshtë për të luajtur videon.

Translator: Etrit Adami Reviewer: Dita Bytyci
00:15
I'm going to talk today about saving more,
0
15260
3000
Une do te flase sot per te kursyer me shume,
00:18
but not today, tomorrow.
1
18260
3000
por jo sot, neser.
00:21
I'm going to talk about Save More Tomorrow.
2
21260
2000
Une do te flas per Te Kursejme Me Shume Neser.
00:23
It's a program that Richard Thaler
3
23260
2000
Eshte programi qe Richard Thaler
00:25
from the University of Chicago and I
4
25260
2000
nga Universiteti i Çikagos dhe une
00:27
devised maybe 15 years ago.
5
27260
3000
qe e kemi shpikur ndoshta 15 vjet me pare.
00:30
The program, in a sense,
6
30260
2000
Ky program, nje nje menyre,
00:32
is an example of behavioral finance
7
32260
2000
eshte nje shembull i sjelljes financiare
00:34
on steroids --
8
34260
2000
ne steroide --
00:36
how we could really use behavioral finance.
9
36260
3000
se si ne vertet mundemi te perdorim sjelljen financiare.
00:39
Now you might ask, what is behavioral finance?
10
39260
3000
Tani ju mund te pyesni, cfare eshte sjellje financiare?
00:42
So let's think about how we manage our money.
11
42260
3000
Le te mendojme rreth asaj se si ne i menaxhojme parate tona.
00:45
Let's start with mortgages.
12
45260
3000
Le te fillojme me garancite hipotekore.
00:48
It's kind of a recent topic,
13
48260
2000
Eshte ceshtje e kohes se fundit,
00:50
at least in the U.S.
14
50260
2000
te pakten ne Amerike.
00:52
A lot of people buy
15
52260
2000
Shumica e njerezve blejne
00:54
the biggest house they can afford,
16
54260
3000
shtepine me te madhe qe mund te blene,
00:57
and actually slightly bigger than that.
17
57260
3000
dhe faktikisht pak me te madhe se ajo.
01:00
And then they foreclose.
18
60260
3000
Dhe me pas ata i heqin të drejtën mbi pronën e vënë në hipotekë
01:03
And then they blame the banks
19
63260
2000
Dhe me pas ata fajesojne bankat
01:05
for being the bad guys who gave them the mortgages.
20
65260
3000
qe s'jane te mira duke i dhene atyre hipoteken.
01:08
Let's also think about
21
68260
2000
Le te mendojme
01:10
how we manage risks --
22
70260
2000
si te menaxhojme riskun --
01:12
for example, investing in the stock market.
23
72260
2000
p.sh, duke investuar ne tregun e aksioneve.
01:14
Two years ago, three years ago, about four years ago,
24
74260
3000
Dy vjet me pare, tre vjet me pare, rreth pese vjet me perpara,
01:17
markets did well.
25
77260
2000
tregjet ishin mire,
01:19
We were risk takers, of course.
26
79260
3000
Ne morem persiper riskun, sigurisht.
01:22
Then market stocks seize
27
82260
2000
Tregu aksione pati nje renie
01:24
and we're like, "Wow.
28
84260
2000
dhe ne mendian "Wow.
01:26
These losses, they feel, emotionally,
29
86260
3000
Keto humbje, ata i ndjene, emocionalisht,
01:29
they feel very different
30
89260
3000
ndihen shume ndryshe
01:32
from what we actually thought about it
31
92260
3000
nga cfare ne menduam rreth kesaj
01:35
when markets were going up."
32
95260
2000
kur tregjet po ngriheshin."
01:37
So we're probably not doing a great job
33
97260
3000
Keshtu qe ne me sa duhet nuk po benin ndonje pune te padhe
01:40
when it comes to risk taking.
34
100260
2000
kur vjen puna per te marre persiper rrezikun.
01:42
How many of you have iPhones?
35
102260
3000
Sa Iphone keni ?
01:45
Anyone? Wonderful.
36
105260
3000
Ndonjeri? Shume mire.
01:48
I would bet many more of you
37
108260
3000
Une ve bast qe shumica nga ju
01:51
insure your iPhone --
38
111260
3000
siguroni telefonin tuaj --
01:54
you're implicitly buying insurance by having an extended warranty.
39
114260
3000
ju pa dyshim blini sigurimin duke pasur nje garanci te zgjatur.
01:57
What if you lose your iPhone?
40
117260
2000
Cfare ndodh nese ju humbet telefoni ?
01:59
What if you do this?
41
119260
2000
N.q.s ju beni kete?
02:01
How many of you have kids?
42
121260
2000
Sa nga ju keni femije?
02:03
Anyone?
43
123260
2000
Ndonjeri?
02:05
Keep your hands up
44
125260
2000
Mbani duart lart
02:07
if you have sufficient life insurance.
45
127260
3000
n.q.s keni sihurimin e jetes te mjaftueshem.
02:10
I see a lot of hands coming down.
46
130260
2000
Uen po shof shume duar qe ulen poshte.
02:12
I would predict,
47
132260
2000
Une do te parashikoja,
02:14
if you're a representative sample,
48
134260
2000
nqs se ti je perfaqesues per shembull,
02:16
that many more of you
49
136260
2000
qe me shume se ju
02:18
insure your iPhones than your lives,
50
138260
3000
sigurojne Iphonet sesa jeten tuaj,
02:21
even when you have kids.
51
141260
2000
madje edhe kur keni femije.
02:23
We're not doing that well when it comes to insurance.
52
143260
3000
Ne nuk po dukemi dhe aq mire kur vjen puna tek siguracioni.
02:26
The average American household
53
146260
4000
Mesatarja Amrikane e nje familje
02:30
spends 1,000 dollars a year
54
150260
3000
shpenzon 1,000 dollare ne vit
02:33
on lotteries.
55
153260
2000
per llotari.
02:35
And I know it sounds crazy.
56
155260
3000
Dhe e di qe eshte cmenduri.
02:38
How many of you spend a thousand dollars a year on lotteries?
57
158260
3000
Sa nga shpenzojne mijra dollare ne vit per llotarira?
02:41
No one.
58
161260
2000
Asnjeri.
02:43
So that tells us that the people not in this room
59
163260
3000
Kjo na tregon ne qe njerzit jo ne kete ambjent
02:46
are spending more than a thousand
60
166260
2000
shpenzojne me shume se nje mije
02:48
to get the average to a thousand.
61
168260
3000
per te arritur tek mesatarja e nje mijes.
02:51
Low-income people
62
171260
2000
Njerzit me te ardhura te vogla
02:53
spend a lot more than a thousand on lotteries.
63
173260
4000
shpenzojne shume me shume se nje mije neper llotarira.
02:57
So where does it take us?
64
177260
2000
Pra ku do te na coje kjo >
02:59
We're not doing a great job managing money.
65
179260
3000
Ne nuk po bejme ndonjepune te madhe me menaxhimin e lekut.
03:02
Behavioral finance is really a combination
66
182260
3000
Vendimet financiar eshte me te vertet nje kombinim
03:05
of psychology and economics,
67
185260
2000
i psikologjise dhe ekonomikut,
03:07
trying to understand
68
187260
2000
te arrish te kuptosh
03:09
the money mistakes people make.
69
189260
2000
gabimet qe njerzit bejne me parane.
03:11
And I can keep standing here
70
191260
2000
Dhe do te qendroj ketu
03:13
for the 12 minutes and 53 seconds that I have left
71
193260
4000
per 12 minuta dhe 53 sekonda qe me kane mbetur
03:17
and make fun of all sorts of ways
72
197260
2000
dhe te argetohetm me te gjitha menyrat e zgjedhjet
03:19
we manage money,
73
199260
2000
per menagimin e parase,
03:21
and at the end you're going to ask, "How can we help people?"
74
201260
3000
dhe ne fund ju do te me pyesni, " Si mund te ndihmojme njerzit?"
03:24
And that's what I really want to focus on today.
75
204260
3000
Dhe kjo eshte me te vertet ajo qe dua te fokusohem sot.
03:27
How do we take an understanding
76
207260
2000
Si mund kemi nje kuptim
03:29
of the money mistakes people make,
77
209260
3000
te gabimeve qe njerzit bejne me parane,
03:32
and then turning the behavioral challenges
78
212260
3000
dhe pastaj te kthejme sjelljet sfiduese
03:35
into behavioral solutions?
79
215260
2000
ne ate sjellje te zgjidhshme?
03:37
And what I'm going to talk about today
80
217260
2000
Dhe une do te flas sot rreth
03:39
is Save More Tomorrow.
81
219260
2000
programin Te Kursejme Me Shume Neser.
03:41
I want to address the issue
82
221260
2000
Dua ta drejtoj kete ceshtje
03:43
of savings.
83
223260
2000
tek kursimet.
03:45
We have on the screen
84
225260
2000
Ne kemi ne monitor
03:47
a representative sample
85
227260
2000
nje shembull tipik
03:49
of 100 Americans.
86
229260
2000
te 100 Amrikaneve.
03:51
And we're going to look at their saving behavior.
87
231260
3000
Dhe ne do te shikojme sjelljen e ketyre kursimeve.
03:54
First thing to notice is,
88
234260
2000
E para qe veme re eshte ,
03:56
half of them
89
236260
2000
qe gjysma e tyre
03:58
do not even have access
90
238260
2000
nuk kane te drejte
04:00
to a 401(k) plan.
91
240260
2000
ne nje plan 401(k).
04:02
They cannot make savings easy.
92
242260
3000
Ata nuk mund te kursejne kaq lehte.
04:05
They cannot have money go away from their paycheck
93
245260
3000
Ata nuk mund te lene t'ju ikin leket nga rroga
04:08
into a 401(k) plan
94
248260
2000
tek nje plan 401(k)
04:10
before they see it,
95
250260
2000
perpara se ta shohin ate,
04:12
before they can touch it.
96
252260
2000
perpara se ta prekin ate.
04:14
What about the remaining half of the people?
97
254260
3000
Po me gysmen tjeter te njerzve qe ngelen?
04:17
Some of them elect not to save.
98
257260
3000
Disa nga ata vendosin te mos kursejne.
04:20
They're just too lazy.
99
260260
2000
Ata jane shume pertace.
04:22
They never get around to logging into a complicated website
100
262260
3000
Ata asnjehere nuk do te logohen ne nje uebsait te komplikuar
04:25
and doing 17 clicks to join the 401(k) plan.
101
265260
3000
dhe te klikojne 17 here per t'ju bashkuar planit 401(k) .
04:28
And then they have to decide how they're going to invest
102
268260
2000
Dhe me pas ata duhet te vendosin se si do ti investojne
04:30
in their 52 choices,
103
270260
2000
ne 52 mundesite e tyre,
04:32
and they never heard about what is a money market fund.
104
272260
4000
dhe ata kurre nuk e kane degjuar cfare eshte nje depozite tregu.
04:36
And they get overwhelmed and the just don't join.
105
276260
2000
Dhe ata jane te mbingarukuar dhe ata thjesht nuk e bejene kete.
04:38
How many people end up saving to a 401(k) plan?
106
278260
5000
Sa njerez i shkojne deri ne fund planit 401(k) ?
04:43
One third of Americans.
107
283260
3000
Nje e treta e Amerikaneve.
04:46
Two thirds are not saving now.
108
286260
2000
Dy te tretat nuk kursejne sot .
04:48
Are they saving enough?
109
288260
2000
A arrijne te kursejne boll?
04:50
Take out those
110
290260
2000
Merreni me mend
04:52
who say they save too little.
111
292260
2000
kush thote qe ata po kursejne shume pak.
04:54
One out of 10
112
294260
2000
Nje nga te 10-tet
04:56
are saving enough.
113
296260
3000
a jane duke kursyer mjaft.
04:59
Nine out of 10
114
299260
2000
9-te nga 10
05:01
either cannot save through their 401(k) plan,
115
301260
3000
per me teper kursen permes planin te yre 401(k),
05:04
decide not to save -- or don't decide --
116
304260
3000
vendosin te mos kursejne-- ose nuk vendosin --
05:07
or save too little.
117
307260
3000
ose kursejne shume pak.
05:10
We think we have a problem
118
310260
2000
Ne mendojme se kemi nje problem
05:12
of people saving too much.
119
312260
2000
te njerzve qe kursejne shume.
05:14
Let's look at that.
120
314260
2000
Le te shikojme kete.
05:16
We have one person --
121
316260
2000
Ne kemi nje person --
05:18
well, actually we're going to slice him in half
122
318260
3000
ok , ne do ta ndajme ate ne gjysem
05:21
because it's less than one percent.
123
321260
3000
sepse eshte me pak se nje percend.
05:24
Roughly half a percent of Americans
124
324260
3000
Perafersisht gjysma perqind e Amerikaneve
05:27
feel that they save too much.
125
327260
5000
ndjejne qe ata kursejne shume.
05:32
What are we going to do about it?
126
332260
2000
Cfare do te bejme rreth kesaj ?
05:34
That's what I really want to focus on.
127
334260
2000
Kjo eshte vertete aty ku dua te fokusohem.
05:36
We have to understand
128
336260
2000
Ne duhet te kutojme
05:38
why people are not saving,
129
338260
2000
perse njerzit nuk po kursejne,
05:40
and then we can hopefully flip
130
340260
2000
dhe pastaj ne fatmirsisht te ndyshojme
05:42
the behavioral challenges
131
342260
2000
sjelljen dhe sfidat
05:44
into behavioral solutions,
132
344260
2000
ne nje zgjidhje te sjellure,
05:46
and then see how powerful it might be.
133
346260
3000
dhe me pas te shohim se sa e forte mund te jete.
05:49
So let me divert for a second
134
349260
2000
Me lejoni te transferoje per nje sekonde
05:51
as we're going to identify the problems,
135
351260
2000
sikurse do te gjenim problemet
05:53
the challenges, the behavioral challenges,
136
353260
3000
sfidat, sfidat e sjelljes,
05:56
that prevent people from saving.
137
356260
2000
keto i ndalojne njerzit te kursejne.
05:58
I'm going to divert and talk about bananas and chocolate.
138
358260
4000
Une do te tranferoje dhe te flas rreth bananeve dhe cokollata.
06:02
Suppose we had another wonderful TED event next week.
139
362260
3000
Te supzojme se ne bejme nje event tjeter te TED-it javen qe vjen.
06:05
And during the break
140
365260
2000
Dhe gjate pushimit
06:07
there would be a snack
141
367260
2000
do te kishte ndonje sanduic
06:09
and you could choose bananas or chocolate.
142
369260
2000
dhe qe mu d te zgjidhni bananet ose cokollatat.
06:11
How many of you think you would like to have bananas
143
371260
3000
Dhe sa nga ju do te mendonit sikur te kishit bananet
06:14
during this hypothetical TED event next week?
144
374260
2000
gjate ketij eventi hippotetik te TEd-it javen qe vjen?
06:16
Who would go for bananas?
145
376260
2000
Kush do te gjidhte bananet?
06:18
Wonderful.
146
378260
2000
E mrekullueshme.
06:20
I predict scientifically
147
380260
2000
Une parashikoj shkencerisht
06:22
74 percent of you will go for bananas.
148
382260
3000
74% nga ju do te zgjidhte bananet.
06:25
Well that's at least what one wonderful study predicted.
149
385260
4000
Dhe kjo eshte te pakten ajo qe nje nga studimet e mrekullueshme kane parashikuar.
06:30
And then count down the days
150
390260
3000
Dhe pastaj te numurojne ditet
06:33
and see what people ended up eating.
151
393260
4000
dhe te shohin cfare njerzit kane mbaruar se ngreni.
06:38
The same people that imagined themselves
152
398260
3000
Te njejtit njerz qe e imagjinuar vehten e tyre
06:41
eating the bananas
153
401260
2000
duke ngrene banane
06:43
ended up eating chocolates
154
403260
2000
mbaruan duke ngrene cokollata
06:45
a week later.
155
405260
2000
nje jave me vone.
06:47
Self-control
156
407260
2000
Vet-kontrolli
06:49
is not a problem in the future.
157
409260
3000
nuk eshte nje problem per te arshmen.
06:52
It's only a problem now
158
412260
2000
Eshte vetem problem tani
06:54
when the chocolate is next to us.
159
414260
4000
kur cokollata eshte mbs nesh .
06:58
What does it have to do with time and savings,
160
418260
3000
Cfare duhet te kete per te bere me kohen dhe kursimet,
07:01
this issue of immediate gratification?
161
421260
3000
kjo c'eshtje e plotesimit te menjehershem?
07:04
Or as some economists call it, present bias.
162
424260
4000
Ose disa ekonomiste e quajne ate, paragjykim i tanishem.
07:08
We think about saving. We know we should be saving.
163
428260
2000
Ne mendojme rreth kursimeve. Ne e dime qe duhet te kursejme.
07:10
We know we'll do it next year, but today let us go and spend.
164
430260
3000
Ne e dime qe ne do ta bejme ate vitin tjeter, por sot lete te harxhojme.
07:13
Christmas is coming,
165
433260
2000
Krishtlindjet jane duke afruar,
07:15
we might as well buy a lot of gifts for everyone we know.
166
435260
3000
ne mund shume mire te bleme shume dhurata per kedo qe njohim.
07:18
So this issue of present bias
167
438260
4000
keshtu qe kjo c'eshtje e paragykimit tone
07:22
causes us to think about saving,
168
442260
2000
shkakton tek ne per te menduar per kursimet,
07:24
but end up spending.
169
444260
2000
dhe perfundon duke i prishur ato
07:26
Let me now talk
170
446260
2000
Le te flasim tani
07:28
about another behavioral obstacle to saving
171
448260
2000
rreth nje jeter pengese ne sjellje per kusimet
07:30
having to do with inertia.
172
450260
2000
duke pasur te beje me nje inertesi.
07:32
But again, a little diversion
173
452260
2000
Por perseri, nje deviim i vogel
07:34
to the topic of organ donation.
174
454260
3000
per c'eshtjen e dhurimit te organeve.
07:37
Wonderful study comparing different countries.
175
457260
3000
Nje studim i mrekullueshem duke krakasur vende te ndryshme.
07:40
We're going to look at two similar countries,
176
460260
3000
Do te shikojme dy qytete te ngjashme,
07:43
Germany and Austria.
177
463260
3000
Gjermania dhe Austria.
07:46
And in Germany,
178
466260
2000
Dhe ne Gjermani,
07:48
if you would like to donate your organs --
179
468260
2000
nqs se ti do te dhurosh oraganet e tua --
07:50
God forbid something really bad
180
470260
2000
Zoti te falte eshte dicka e keqe
07:52
happens to you --
181
472260
2000
do te ndodhi ty --
07:54
when you get your driving license or an I.D.,
182
474260
3000
kur mer patenten ose karten e identitetit.,
07:57
you check the box saying,
183
477260
2000
ti kontrollon kutine e kursimeve,
07:59
"I would like to donate my organs."
184
479260
2000
"Une dua te dhuroj organet e mia."
08:01
Not many people like checking boxes.
185
481260
2000
Jo shume njerez i pleqejne listat.
08:03
It takes effort. You need to think.
186
483260
2000
Kerkon perpjekje. te duhet te mendohesh.
08:05
Twelve percent do.
187
485260
3000
12 % e bejne kete.
08:08
Austria, a neighboring country,
188
488260
3000
Austria, nje shtet fqinj,
08:11
slightly similar, slightly different.
189
491260
2000
lehtesisht te ngashem, pak te ndryshem.
08:13
What's the difference?
190
493260
2000
Kush eshte ndryshimi?
08:15
Well, you still have choice.
191
495260
2000
e pra, ju prape keni nje zgedhje.
08:17
You will decide
192
497260
2000
Ti do te vendosesh
08:19
whether you want to donate your organs or not.
193
499260
3000
nese do ti dhurosh organet apo jo.
08:22
But when you get your driving license,
194
502260
2000
Por kur ti merr patenten,
08:24
you check the box
195
504260
2000
ti shenon tel lista
08:26
if you do not want to donate your organ.
196
506260
4000
nqs ti nuk do qe ti dhurosh organet.
08:30
Nobody checks boxes.
197
510260
2000
Asnjeri nuk i shenon tek lista.
08:32
That's kind of too much effort.
198
512260
2000
Ky eshte nje lloj stermundimi i madh.
08:34
One percent check the box. The rest do nothing.
199
514260
3000
1% e njerzve e shenojne ate. Te tjeret nuk bejne asgje.
08:37
Doing nothing is very common.
200
517260
2000
Per te mos bere asgje eshte shume e lehte.
08:39
Not many people check boxes.
201
519260
3000
Jo shume njerzez i shenojne kutite e vogla te mundesive.
08:42
What are the implications
202
522260
2000
Cfare jane keto perpjekje
08:44
to saving lives
203
524260
2000
per te shptuar jete
08:46
and having organs available?
204
526260
3000
dhe te kesh disa oragane ne gjendje?
08:49
In Germany, 12 percent check the box.
205
529260
2000
Ne Gjermani, 12% e zgjedhin kete gje.
08:51
Twelve percent are organ donors.
206
531260
3000
12% jane organe te dhuruara.
08:54
Huge shortage of organs,
207
534260
2000
Shume sasi e paket e organeve,
08:56
God forbid, if you need one.
208
536260
2000
Zoti i perjashton, nws te duhet nje.
08:58
In Austria, again, nobody checks the box.
209
538260
3000
Ne Austri, perseri, asnjeri nuk e shenon tek lista.
09:01
Therefore, 99 percent of people
210
541260
3000
Prandaj, 99% e njerzve
09:04
are organ donors.
211
544260
2000
jane organe te dhuruara.
09:06
Inertia, lack of action.
212
546260
2000
Kjo amulli, munges e veprimit.
09:08
What is the default setting
213
548260
2000
Kush eshte kundravajtja
09:10
if people do nothing,
214
550260
2000
nqs se njerzit bejne dicka,
09:12
if they keep procrastinating, if they don't check the boxes?
215
552260
3000
nqs se ata i vonojne, nqs nuk i bejne nje zgjadhje tek lista?
09:15
Very powerful.
216
555260
2000
Shume e fuqishme.
09:17
We're going to talk
217
557260
2000
Ne do te flasim
09:19
about what happens if people are overwhelmed and scared
218
559260
4000
rreth asaj qe cfare ndodh nqs se njerzit jane te mbingarkuar dhe te friksuar
09:23
to make their 401(k) choices.
219
563260
3000
per te bere zgjedhjet e planit 401(k).
09:26
Are we going to make them automatically join the plan,
220
566260
3000
Ne do ti bejme ato ne menyre automatike per t'ju bashkuar planit,
09:29
or are they going to be left out?
221
569260
2000
ose ata do te lihen jashte >
09:31
In too many 401(k) plans,
222
571260
3000
Ne disa raste te planit 401(k),
09:34
if people do nothing,
223
574260
2000
nqs njerzit nuk bejne asgje,
09:36
it means they're not saving for retirement,
224
576260
3000
kjo do te thote qe ata nuk po kursejne per pension,
09:39
if they don't check the box.
225
579260
2000
nws se ata nuk e bejne zgjedhjen tek kutia.
09:41
And checking the box takes effort.
226
581260
3000
Dhe te shenonsh tek kutia kerkon perpjekje.
09:44
So we've chatted about a couple of behavioral challenges.
227
584260
3000
Keshtu qe ne folem rreth disa sfida e sjelljes.
09:47
One more before we flip the challenges into solutions,
228
587260
3000
Edhe njehere para se te kthejme sfidat ne zgjidhje,
09:50
having to do with monkeys and apples.
229
590260
2000
duke pasur te bejme me majmune dhe molle..
09:52
No, no, no, this is a real study
230
592260
2000
Jo, jo, jo, ky eshte nje sudim i vertete
09:54
and it's got a lot to do with behavioral economics.
231
594260
4000
dhe ka te beje shume me sjelljen ekonomike.
09:58
One group of monkeys gets an apple, they're pretty happy.
232
598260
3000
Nje grup majmunesh marrin e molle, ata jane shume te gezuar.
10:01
The other group gets two apples, one is taken away.
233
601260
2000
Grupi tjeter marrin dy molle, njera i merret.
10:03
They still have an apple left.
234
603260
2000
Atyre ju ka mbetur edhe nje.
10:05
They're really mad.
235
605260
3000
Ata jane me te verte te inatosur.
10:08
Why have you taken our apple?
236
608260
3000
Pse na i morret mollen tone?
10:11
This is the notion of loss aversion.
237
611260
3000
Ky eshte enocioni i humbjes se mospelqimit.
10:14
We hate losing stuff,
238
614260
2000
Ne merzitemi kur na humbin gjerat,
10:16
even if it doesn't mean a lot of risk.
239
616260
3000
edhe pse madje nuk ka shume rrezik.
10:19
You would hate to go to the ATM,
240
619260
3000
Do te uuroje te shkojet te ATM,
10:22
take out 100 dollars
241
622260
2000
dhe te terheqesh 100 dollare
10:24
and notice that you lost one of those $20 bills.
242
624260
2000
dhe ve re qe ti ke humbur nje nga keto biletat 20 dollareshe.
10:26
It's very painful,
243
626260
2000
Eshte shume e dhimbshme,
10:28
even though it doesn't mean anything.
244
628260
2000
megjithse, nuk do te thote gje.
10:30
Those 20 dollars might have been a quick lunch.
245
630260
4000
Keto 20 dollaremund te ishin nje dreke e shpejte.
10:34
So this notion of loss aversion
246
634260
4000
Pra ky nocion i mospeqimit
10:38
kicks in when it comes to savings too,
247
638260
3000
duket sikur te shkelmon kur vjen puna edhe per kursimet,
10:41
because people, mentally
248
641260
2000
sepse njerzit , menderisht
10:43
and emotionally and intuitively
249
643260
3000
dhe emocionalisht dhe intuitivisht
10:46
frame savings as a loss
250
646260
2000
forme e kursimit si nje humbje
10:48
because I have to cut my spending.
251
648260
3000
sepse mua me duhet te mos prishe leke.
10:51
So we talked about
252
651260
2000
Keshtu qe ne folem rreth
10:53
all sorts of behavioral challenges
253
653260
2000
te gjitha llojete sfidave te sjelljes
10:55
having to do with savings eventually.
254
655260
4000
qe kane te bjene me kursimit eventualisht.
10:59
Whether you think about immediate gratification,
255
659260
3000
Kurdo qe ti mendon rreth pelqimi te domosdoshem,
11:02
and the chocolates versus bananas,
256
662260
3000
dhe cokollatat ndryshe babanet,
11:05
it's just painful to save now.
257
665260
3000
jane te dhimbshme per ti kursyer tani.
11:08
It's a lot more fun
258
668260
2000
Eshte me shume nje loje
11:10
to spend now.
259
670260
2000
per te prishur leke tani.
11:12
We talked about inertia and organ donations
260
672260
3000
Ne folem rreth inertesise dhe dhurimit te oraganeve
11:15
and checking the box.
261
675260
2000
dhe lista per tu plotesuar.
11:17
If people have to check a lot of boxes
262
677260
2000
Nws se njerzit kane per she mbushur shume lista
11:19
to join a 401(k) plan,
263
679260
2000
per tu fuur ne planin(401k),
11:21
they're going to keep procrastinating
264
681260
2000
ata do te vazhdojne te mbajne te vonuar
11:23
and not join.
265
683260
2000
dhe te mos bashkohet.
11:25
And last, we talked about loss aversion,
266
685260
2000
Ne fund, ne folem per humbjen e mospelqimit,
11:27
and the monkeys and the apples.
267
687260
2000
dhe per majmunet dhe mollet.
11:29
If people frame mentally
268
689260
3000
Nqs se njerzit coptohen menderisht
11:32
saving for retirement as a loss,
269
692260
3000
per te kursyer per pensionin si nje humbje,
11:35
they're not going to be saving for retirement.
270
695260
3000
ata nuk do te kursejne per pensionin.
11:38
So we've got these challenges,
271
698260
2000
Keshtu, qe kemi keto sfida,
11:40
and what Richard Thaler and I
272
700260
2000
dhe cfare Richard Thaler dhe une
11:42
were always fascinated by --
273
702260
2000
jemi gjithmone te mrekulluar nga --
11:44
take behavioral finance,
274
704260
2000
marrja e sjelljes financiare,
11:46
make it behavioral finance on steroids
275
706260
2000
suke e bere sjelljen financiare mbi steroidet
11:48
or behavioral finance 2.0
276
708260
2000
ose sjelljes financiare 2.0
11:50
or behavioral finance in action --
277
710260
2000
ose sjelljes financiare ne veprim --
11:52
flip the challenges into solutions.
278
712260
4000
te ktheje sfidat ne zgjdhje.
11:56
And we came up with an embarrassingly simple solution
279
716260
3000
Dhe ne erdhem me nje ne zgjidhje jashtezakonisht te thjeshte
11:59
called Save More, not today, Tomorrow.
280
719260
4000
e quajtur Kurse Shume, jo sot, Neser.
12:03
How is it going to solve the challenges
281
723260
2000
Si do ti zgjidhe sfidat
12:05
we chatted about?
282
725260
2000
qe ne folem rreth?
12:07
If you think about the problem
283
727260
2000
Nqs mendon rreth problemit
12:09
of bananas versus chocolates,
284
729260
2000
te bananeve kunder cokollatave,
12:11
we think we're going to eat bananas next week.
285
731260
3000
ne mendojme se do shkojne te hame banane javen qe vjen.
12:14
We think we're going to save more next year.
286
734260
3000
Ne mendojme qe do e kursejme para vitin qe vjen.
12:17
Save More Tomorrow
287
737260
3000
Kurse me shume Neser
12:20
invites employees
288
740260
2000
fton puntoret
12:22
to save more maybe next year --
289
742260
2000
per te kursyer mndoshta me shume vitin tketer --
12:24
sometime in the future
290
744260
2000
disa here ne te ardhmen
12:26
when we can imagine ourselves
291
746260
2000
kur ne te imagjinojme vehten tone
12:28
eating bananas,
292
748260
2000
duke ngrene banane,
12:30
volunteering more in the community,
293
750260
2000
per te qene vullnetare me shume ne komunitet,
12:32
exercising more and doing all the right things on the planet.
294
752260
4000
duke bere me shume dhe duke bere gjerat e duhura nekete planet.
12:36
Now we also talked about checking the box
295
756260
3000
Tani ne githshtu folem rreth kutise ne listen e gjerave
12:39
and the difficulty of taking action.
296
759260
3000
dhe veshtiresia eshte per te vepruar.
12:42
Save More Tomorrow
297
762260
2000
Kurse me shune Neser
12:44
makes it easy.
298
764260
2000
beje te lehte.
12:46
It's an autopilot.
299
766260
2000
eshte si nje atuto pilot.
12:48
Once you tell me you would like to save more in the future,
300
768260
4000
Njehere me thate mua qe donit te kursenit me shume leke ne te ardhmen,
12:52
let's say every January
301
772260
2000
ke te themi ne Janar
12:54
you're going to be saving more automatically
302
774260
3000
ju do te mund te kurseni ne menyre automatike
12:57
and it's going to go away from your paycheck to the 401(k) plan
303
777260
3000
dhe do t'ju dali nga fatura e planit 401(k)
13:00
before you see it, before you touch it,
304
780260
2000
perpara se ta shifni , perpara se ta prekni ate,
13:02
before you get the issue
305
782260
2000
perpara se te vini te c'eshtja
13:04
of immediate gratification.
306
784260
3000
e kenaqsise te menjehershme.
13:07
But what are we going to do about the monkeys
307
787260
3000
Por cfare do te bejme rreth majuneve
13:10
and loss aversion?
308
790260
2000
dhe mospelqimit humbes
13:12
Next January comes
309
792260
2000
Janarin qe vjen
13:14
and people might feel that if they save more,
310
794260
2000
njerzit mund te kujtojne qe kane kursyer me shume,
13:16
they have to spend less, and that's painful.
311
796260
3000
dhe kane harxhuar me pak , dhe kjo eshte e dhimbshme.
13:20
Well, maybe it shouldn't be just January.
312
800260
2000
E pra, ndoshta nuk duhet te jete Janari.
13:22
Maybe we should make people save more
313
802260
3000
Ndoshta ne duhet ti bejme njerzit qe te kursejne me shume
13:25
when they make more money.
314
805260
3000
kur ata bejne me shume leke.
13:28
That way, when they make more money, when they get a pay raise,
315
808260
3000
Menyra , kur ata bejne leke , kur ata marrin nje ngritje rroge,
13:31
they don't have to cut their spending.
316
811260
4000
ata nuk mendojne per te ukin shpenzime e tyre.
13:35
They take a little bit
317
815260
2000
Ata marrin shume pak nga kjo rritjene faturen e shtepise
13:37
of the increase in the paycheck home
318
817260
2000
dhe shpenzojne me shume --
13:39
and spend more --
319
819260
2000
dhe shpenzojne me shume --
13:41
take a little bit of the increase
320
821260
2000
merr shume pak nga kjo ngrtje
13:43
and put it in a 401(k) plan.
321
823260
2000
dhe e fusrin tek plani 401(K).
13:45
So that is the program,
322
825260
2000
Pro ky eshte programi,
13:47
embarrassingly simple,
323
827260
2000
pa
13:49
but as we're going to see,
324
829260
2000
por sic do te shihim me vone,
13:51
extremely powerful.
325
831260
2000
jashtezakonisht i fuqishem.
13:53
We first implemented it,
326
833260
2000
Se pare ne e implementojme ate,
13:55
Richard Thaler and I,
327
835260
2000
Richard Thaler dhe Une,
13:57
back in 1998.
328
837260
3000
brapa ne 1998.
14:00
Mid-sized company in the Midwest,
329
840260
3000
Nje kompany i mesme ne Midewest,
14:03
blue collar employees
330
843260
2000
me puntore me kollare blu
14:05
struggling to pay their bills
331
845260
2000
qe perpiqen te paguajne faturat e tyre
14:07
repeatedly told us
332
847260
2000
duke e perseritur na thonin neve
14:09
they cannot save more right away.
333
849260
3000
qe ata nuk mund te kursejne para menjane.
14:12
Saving more today is not an option.
334
852260
3000
Per te kursyer sot nuk eshte nje opsion.
14:15
We invited them to save
335
855260
2000
Ne i propozuam ayre per te kursyer
14:17
three percentage points more
336
857260
3000
tre perqind te pike me shume
14:20
every time they get a pay raise.
337
860260
3000
cdo here qe ata merrin nje ngritje.
14:23
And here are the results.
338
863260
3000
Dhe ja ku jane reszultatet.
14:26
We're seeing here a three and a half-year period,
339
866260
2000
Ne jemi duke pare ketu tre dhe nje gjysem periudhe,
14:28
four pay raises,
340
868260
2000
kater nritje pagesash,
14:30
people who were struggling to save,
341
870260
2000
njerzit qe perpiqeshin te kursenin,
14:32
were saving three percent of their paycheck,
342
872260
2000
po kursenin 3 perqind te faturave te tyre,
14:34
three and a half years later
343
874260
2000
tre vjet e gjysem me vone
14:36
saving almost four times as much,
344
876260
3000
kursenin pothuajse 4 here me shume ,
14:39
almost 14 percent.
345
879260
3000
pothuajse 14 perqind.
14:42
And there's shoes and bicycles
346
882260
2000
Dhe kemi kaepuce dhe bicikleta
14:44
and things on this chart
347
884260
2000
dhe disa gjerat ne kete diagram
14:46
because I don't want to just throw numbers
348
886260
2000
sepse une nuk dua te tregoj tani vetem shifra
14:48
in a vacuum.
349
888260
2000
njehapsire.
14:50
I want, really, to think about the fact
350
890260
3000
Une dua, vertete, te mendoj rreth faktit
14:53
that saving four times more
351
893260
2000
qe kur kusen 4 here me shume
14:55
is a huge difference
352
895260
2000
eshte nje ndyshim i madh
14:57
in terms of the lifestyle
353
897260
2000
ne menyre e te jetuarit
14:59
that people will be able to afford.
354
899260
2000
qe njerzit mund te jene ne gjendje per ti marre.
15:01
It's real.
355
901260
2000
Eshte e vertet.
15:03
It's not just numbers on a piece of paper.
356
903260
3000
Nuk jane vetem numra ne nje cope letre.
15:06
Whereas with saving three percent,
357
906260
2000
Ndersa me kursimet tre perqind,
15:08
people might have to add nice sneakers
358
908260
2000
njerzit mund te kene atlete te
15:10
so they can walk,
359
910260
2000
keshtu qe ata mund te ecin,
15:12
because they won't be able to afford anything else,
360
912260
4000
sepse nuk do te jene ne gjendje per te blere ndonje gje jeter,
15:16
when they save 14 percent
361
916260
2000
kur ata kursejne 14%
15:18
they might be able to maybe have nice dress shoes
362
918260
3000
ata mund te kene mundesi te kene edhe kepuce kostumi
15:21
to walk to the car to drive.
363
921260
3000
per te ecur dhe per te rejtuar makinen.
15:24
This is a real difference.
364
924260
2000
Ky eshte nje ndryshim i madh.
15:26
By now, about 60 percent of the large companies
365
926260
5000
Por tani rreth 60% e kompanive te medhaja
15:31
actually have programs like this in place.
366
931260
3000
aktualisht kane programe te tilla ne kete vend.
15:34
It's been part of the Pension Protection Act.
367
934260
3000
Ka qene pjese e Aktit Brojtes te Pensionit.
15:37
And needless to say that Thaler and I
368
937260
2000
Dhe e pa nevojshme per te thene qe Thaleri dhe Une
15:39
have been blessed to be part of this program
369
939260
3000
jane te bekuar per te qene pjese e ketij programi
15:42
and make a difference.
370
942260
2000
dhe te bejme ndryshime.
15:44
Let me wrap
371
944260
2000
Me lejoni te perfundoj
15:46
with two key messages.
372
946260
3000
me dy mesazhe te rendesihme.
15:49
One is behavioral finance
373
949260
3000
Njera eshte veprimet financiare
15:52
is extremely powerful.
374
952260
3000
jane jashtezakonisht te fuqishme.
15:55
This is just one example.
375
955260
3000
Ky eshte vetem nje shembull.
15:58
Message two
376
958260
2000
Mesazhi dyte
16:00
is there's still a lot to do.
377
960260
2000
eshte qe ka shume per te bere.
16:02
This is really the tip of the iceberg.
378
962260
3000
Ky eshte tamam maja e ajbergut.
16:05
If you think about people and mortgages
379
965260
3000
Nqs ju mendoni rreth njerzit dhe hipotekat
16:08
and buying houses and then not being able to pay for it,
380
968260
3000
duke blere shtepi e tejpor te mos qene e mundur ti paguash ato,
16:11
we need to think about that.
381
971260
2000
ne na duhet te mendojme rreth tyre.
16:13
If you're thinking about people taking too much risk
382
973260
3000
Nqs ju jeni duke menduar rreth njerzve qe marrin shume reziqe
16:16
and not understanding how much risk they're taking
383
976260
3000
dhe qe nuk kuptojne se sa rrezik ata kane marre
16:19
or taking too little risk,
384
979260
2000
ose te duke marre pak,
16:21
we need to think about that.
385
981260
2000
ne duhet te mendojme rreth kesaj.
16:23
If you think about people spending a thousand dollars a year
386
983260
3000
Nqs ju mendoni rreth njerzve qe shpenzojne mijra dollare ne vit
16:26
on lottery tickets,
387
986260
2000
ne bileta lloratish,
16:28
we need to think about that.
388
988260
2000
ne duhet te mendojem rreth kesaj.
16:30
The average actually,
389
990260
2000
Mesatarja aktualisht,
16:32
the record is in Singapore.
390
992260
2000
rekordi eshte ne Singapore.
16:34
The average household
391
994260
2000
Mesatarja e nje pronari
16:36
spends $4,000 a year on lottery tickets.
392
996260
3000
shpenzon $4,000 nje vite per bitela llotarie.
16:39
We've got a lot to do,
393
999260
2000
Ne na duhet shume per te bere,
16:41
a lot to solve,
394
1001260
2000
shume per te zgjidhur,
16:43
also in the retirement area
395
1003260
3000
gjithashtu ne pjesen e pensionit
16:46
when it comes to what people do with their money
396
1006260
2000
kur vjen puna se c'fare njerzit bejne me parate e tyre
16:48
after retirement.
397
1008260
2000
mbas pensionit.
16:50
One last question:
398
1010260
2000
Nje pyetje e fundit:
16:52
How many of you feel comfortable
399
1012260
3000
Sa nga ju ndiheni te rrehatshem
16:55
that as you're planning for retirement
400
1015260
2000
se qe nga momenti ju planifikoni per planin e pensionit
16:57
you have a really solid plan
401
1017260
3000
ju keni nje plan te forte
17:00
when you're going to retire,
402
1020260
2000
kur ju do te dilni ne pension,
17:02
when you're going to claim Social Security benefits,
403
1022260
3000
kur ju do te shkoni per te kerkuar perfitimete Social Security
17:05
what lifestyle to expect,
404
1025260
2000
c'fare lloj jete ju prisni,
17:07
how much to spend every month
405
1027260
2000
sa shume shpenzon cdo muaj
17:09
so you're not going to run out of money?
406
1029260
2000
keshtu qe ju nuk do te nglelni pa leke?
17:11
How many of you feel you have a solid plan for the future
407
1031260
3000
Sa nga ju ndiejne qe kane nje plan te forte per te ardhmen
17:14
when it comes to post-retirement decisions.
408
1034260
4000
kur vjen puna per vendimet e mbas-pensionit.
17:19
One, two, three, four.
409
1039260
3000
Nje, dy, tre, kater.
17:22
Less than three percent
410
1042260
2000
Me pak se tre perqind
17:24
of a very sophisticated audience.
411
1044260
2000
e ketij auditori te sofistikuar.
17:26
Behavioral finance has a long way.
412
1046260
3000
Veprimet financiare kane nje rruge te gjate.
17:29
There's a lot of opportunities
413
1049260
2000
Ka shume mundesira
17:31
to make it powerful again and again and again.
414
1051260
4000
per ta bere ate te fuqishem perseri dhe perseri dhe perseri.
17:35
Thank you.
415
1055260
2000
Falemderit.
17:37
(Applause)
416
1057260
2000
(Duartrokitje )
Rreth kësaj faqe interneti

Kjo faqe do t'ju prezantojë me videot e YouTube që janë të dobishme për të mësuar anglisht. Do të shihni mësime angleze të mësuara nga mësues të nivelit më të lartë nga e gjithë bota. Klikoni dy herë mbi titrat në anglisht të shfaqura në secilën faqe të videos për të luajtur videon prej andej. Titrat lëvizin në sinkron me riprodhimin e videos. Nëse keni ndonjë koment ose kërkesë, ju lutemi na kontaktoni duke përdorur këtë formular kontakti.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7