Shlomo Benartzi: Saving for tomorrow, tomorrow

翻译人员: Dora WANG 校对人员: Xiaotong Ding

I'm going to talk today about saving more,

今天我要谈一谈存钱

but not today, tomorrow.

但不是今天开始存钱 而是明天存钱

I'm going to talk about Save More Tomorrow.

我将要谈的是：明天存更多的钱

It's a program that Richard Thaler

这是芝加哥大学的

from the University of Chicago and I

理查德 泰勒和我

devised maybe 15 years ago.

在15年前设计的一个项目

The program, in a sense,

在某种意义上

is an example of behavioral finance

这个项目是广义的

on steroids --

行为金融学

how we could really use behavioral finance.

我们怎样才能真正地利用行为金融学

Now you might ask, what is behavioral finance?

现在也许你会问 什么是行为金融学

So let's think about how we manage our money.

那让我们考虑一下 我们是如何管理我们的钱的

Let's start with mortgages.

让我们从贷款开始

It's kind of a recent topic,

这个话题很新

at least in the U.S.

至少在美国很新

A lot of people buy

很多人买的房子都是

the biggest house they can afford,

他们能支付得起的最大的房子

and actually slightly bigger than that.

而且实际上，比那种还要再大一些。

And then they foreclose.

之后，他们的财产被银行收走了。

And then they blame the banks

然后他们就开始责备银行，

for being the bad guys who gave them the mortgages.

因为银行不好，给了他们贷款。

Let's also think about

让我们也来想一下

how we manage risks --

我们如何管理风险：

for example, investing in the stock market.

比如说，投资股票市场。

Two years ago, three years ago, about four years ago,

两年或三年，甚至是四年以前，

markets did well.

股市很好

We were risk takers, of course.

当然，当时我们也是风险承担者。

Then market stocks seize

之后股市开始缩水

and we're like, "Wow.

而我们就开始感叹

These losses, they feel, emotionally,

从情感上而言，他们会觉得这些损失

they feel very different

与我们实际的想象中

from what we actually thought about it

市场会回升的时间

when markets were going up."

有很大差距

So we're probably not doing a great job

当涉及风险的时候

when it comes to risk taking.

我们做的也许不是很好

How many of you have iPhones?

你们中多少人有iPhone？

Anyone? Wonderful.

有人吗？太好了。

I would bet many more of you

我打赌你们中许多人

insure your iPhone --

都给你们的iPhone上了保险

you're implicitly buying insurance by having an extended warranty.

延长保修期也是一种隐性的保险

What if you lose your iPhone?

如果你的iPhone丢了怎么办？

What if you do this?

如果发生了其他事情怎么办？

How many of you have kids?

你们当中多少人有孩子?

Anyone?

多少人？

Keep your hands up

如果你有足够的人寿保险

if you have sufficient life insurance.

请继续举着手不要放下

I see a lot of hands coming down.

我看到很多手放下去了。

I would predict,

我预计说，

if you're a representative sample,

如果你是一个代表性样本

that many more of you

那么你们给iPhone上的保险

insure your iPhones than your lives,

比你们的寿险还要多

even when you have kids.

有了孩子也是一样。

We're not doing that well when it comes to insurance.

每当谈及保险的时候，我们做的都不够好。

The average American household

美国一般家庭

spends 1,000 dollars a year

每年花费1000美元

on lotteries.

在乐透彩上。

And I know it sounds crazy.

我知道这听起来很疯狂。

How many of you spend a thousand dollars a year on lotteries?

在座各位有多人每年花1000美元在乐透彩上？

No one.

没有人

So that tells us that the people not in this room

这就告诉了我们，没在这间屋子里面的人

are spending more than a thousand

每年花在乐透彩上的钱超过了1000美元

to get the average to a thousand.

这才能让平均值保持在1000美元

Low-income people

低收入人群

spend a lot more than a thousand on lotteries.

花在乐透彩上的钱远远超出了1000美元

So where does it take us?

那么这会如何影响我们呢

We're not doing a great job managing money.

我们并不是很擅长于管理钱

Behavioral finance is really a combination

行为经济学实际上是

of psychology and economics,

心理学和经济学的结合

trying to understand

请试着理解一下

the money mistakes people make.

人们所犯的有关于金钱的错误

And I can keep standing here

在剩下的12分53秒中

for the 12 minutes and 53 seconds that I have left

我可以一直在这里站着

and make fun of all sorts of ways

取笑我们管理金钱的

we manage money,

各种方法。

and at the end you're going to ask, "How can we help people?"

结束的时候你们就会问：“我们如何才能帮补别人呢”？

And that's what I really want to focus on today.

这才是我今天想讲的重点

How do we take an understanding

我们如何理解

of the money mistakes people make,

别人在管理金钱上犯的错误

and then turning the behavioral challenges

并且改变这些行为上的挑战

into behavioral solutions?

使其变为解决方案？

And what I'm going to talk about today

今天我将要讲的是

is Save More Tomorrow.

增加未来的储蓄

I want to address the issue

我想讨论一下

of savings.

储蓄的问题

We have on the screen

在屏幕上

a representative sample

有一个100个美国人的

of 100 Americans.

代表性样本

And we're going to look at their saving behavior.

我们将会看一下他们的储蓄行为

First thing to notice is,

首先需要注意的是

half of them

他们当中一半人

do not even have access

都没有

to a 401(k) plan.

加入401退休福利计划

They cannot make savings easy.

他们想要储蓄很不容易

They cannot have money go away from their paycheck

他们不能将钱一眼不看

into a 401(k) plan

一分不动地

before they see it,

投入到

before they can touch it.

401退休福利计划当中

What about the remaining half of the people?

那么剩下的一半人呢

Some of them elect not to save.

他们中的一部分选择不储蓄

They're just too lazy.

他们只是太懒了

They never get around to logging into a complicated website

他们从来不愿意登录一个比较复杂的网站

and doing 17 clicks to join the 401(k) plan.

并且点击17下鼠标 加入401退休福利计划

And then they have to decide how they're going to invest

然后他们需要决定如何投资

in their 52 choices,

52种不同的计划

and they never heard about what is a money market fund.

他们也从未听说过什么是货币市场基金

And they get overwhelmed and the just don't join.

他们应接不暇，所以也就不了了之了

How many people end up saving to a 401(k) plan?

有多少人最后会加入401退休福利计划呢

One third of Americans.

三分之一的美国人

Two thirds are not saving now.

三分之二的美国人现在没有在储蓄

Are they saving enough?

他们存够钱了么

Take out those

除去那些

who say they save too little.

说自己没有存钱的人。

One out of 10

10个人里面有一个人

are saving enough.

存的钱是足够的。

Nine out of 10

10个人中有9个

either cannot save through their 401(k) plan,

或者是不能通过401退休福利计划存款

decide not to save -- or don't decide --

或者是决定不存款，或者还没决定存不存款

or save too little.

或者存款少的微乎其微

We think we have a problem

我想那些存款过多的人

of people saving too much.

面临着一个问题

Let's look at that.

让我们来看一下

We have one person --

我们有一个人

well, actually we're going to slice him in half

实际上 我们只算他的一半

because it's less than one percent.

因为这个数据是少于1%的

Roughly half a percent of Americans

大约有0.5%的美国人

feel that they save too much.

认为他们存的钱太多了

What are we going to do about it?

那么我们该如何对待这件事情呢

That's what I really want to focus on.

这就是为什么我想将重点放在这上

We have to understand

我们需要理解

why people are not saving,

人们不去储蓄的原因

and then we can hopefully flip

这样我们才有希望跨过

the behavioral challenges

行为上的障碍

into behavioral solutions,

将其变为解决方式

and then see how powerful it might be.

并且看一下这会有多强大

So let me divert for a second

所以请给我一秒钟转移话题

as we're going to identify the problems,

因为我们即将要找到那些问题

the challenges, the behavioral challenges,

人们在储蓄上面对的

that prevent people from saving.

挑战，行为上的挑战

I'm going to divert and talk about bananas and chocolate.

我想先谈一下香蕉和巧克力

Suppose we had another wonderful TED event next week.

假设我们下周还有一次美好的TED讲座

And during the break

那么在休息期间

there would be a snack

会有茶点提供

and you could choose bananas or chocolate.

你有香蕉或者是巧克力可以选择

How many of you think you would like to have bananas

那么各位有多少人在这场假想的讲座的茶歇间

during this hypothetical TED event next week?

会选择吃香蕉呢

Who would go for bananas?

有多少人吃香蕉，请举手

Wonderful.

很好

I predict scientifically

我从科学角度预计

74 percent of you will go for bananas.

你们当中有74%的人会选择香蕉。

Well that's at least what one wonderful study predicted.

至少一个很好的研究也应该能预测到这一点

And then count down the days

然后让我们等到那一天

and see what people ended up eating.

看看人们最后吃的什么吧

The same people that imagined themselves

那些想象着自己

eating the bananas

吃香蕉的人

ended up eating chocolates

一周之后

a week later.

吃的都是巧克力。

Self-control

自控能力

is not a problem in the future.

不是未来的一个问题

It's only a problem now

当巧克力就在我们手边的时候

when the chocolate is next to us.

这就是一个现在的问题

What does it have to do with time and savings,

这与时间，与储蓄有什么关系呢

this issue of immediate gratification?

与这种即时的喜悦又有什么关系呢

Or as some economists call it, present bias.

一些经济学家将其称为，及时性偏见

We think about saving. We know we should be saving.

我们总是想着储蓄。我们知道我们应该储蓄

We know we'll do it next year, but today let us go and spend.

我们知道我们明年会做 但是今天我们还是先消费吧

Christmas is coming,

圣诞节快到了

we might as well buy a lot of gifts for everyone we know.

我们会给认识的所有人都买礼物

So this issue of present bias

所以这种及时性偏见

causes us to think about saving,

让我们想的是储蓄

but end up spending.

但却以花钱告终

Let me now talk

让我再谈一个

about another behavioral obstacle to saving

与惰性有关的

having to do with inertia.

储蓄的行为障碍

But again, a little diversion

但是同样 我需要先岔开一下话题

to the topic of organ donation.

谈一下器官捐赠

Wonderful study comparing different countries.

这是一个有关不同国家的非常好的比较研究

We're going to look at two similar countries,

我们将要看两个相像的国家

Germany and Austria.

德国和奥地利

And in Germany,

在德国

if you would like to donate your organs --

如果你想要捐赠器官

God forbid something really bad

希望上帝是可以

happens to you --

保佑你的

when you get your driving license or an I.D.,

在你在拿到驾照或者是身份证的时候

you check the box saying,

你需要在方框中打勾来说明

"I would like to donate my organs."

“我想要捐赠器官”。

Not many people like checking boxes.

没有多少人在方框中打勾

It takes effort. You need to think.

这需要很大努力 你需要再三考虑

Twelve percent do.

有12%的人选择捐赠

Austria, a neighboring country,

在邻国奥地利

slightly similar, slightly different.

情况略有相似，却也有些不同

What's the difference?

那么什么地方不同呢

Well, you still have choice.

那就是你还是有选择的

You will decide

你需要决定

whether you want to donate your organs or not.

你是不是想要捐赠器官

But when you get your driving license,

但是当你拿到驾照的时候

you check the box

如果你不想捐赠器官

if you do not want to donate your organ.

你需要在方框中打勾

Nobody checks boxes.

没有人在方框中打勾

That's kind of too much effort.

这太费劲了

One percent check the box. The rest do nothing.

只有1%的人打了勾 其他的人什么都没有做

Doing nothing is very common.

无所事事是很正常的

Not many people check boxes.

只有少部分人在方框中打勾

What are the implications

那么救助他人性命

to saving lives

和器官捐赠

and having organs available?

有什么影响呢

In Germany, 12 percent check the box.

在德国 有12%的人打了勾

Twelve percent are organ donors.

有12%的人是器官捐赠者

Huge shortage of organs,

器官短缺非常严重

God forbid, if you need one.

上帝保佑你，如果你需要一个的话

In Austria, again, nobody checks the box.

在奥地利，同样的，没有人勾上了方框

Therefore, 99 percent of people

因此 99%的人都是

are organ donors.

器官捐赠者

Inertia, lack of action.

惰性 缺乏行动

What is the default setting

如果人们什么也不做

if people do nothing,

那么默认的什么就是什么

if they keep procrastinating, if they don't check the boxes?

如果他们一直拖延下去，如果他们不选择呢

Very powerful.

这是很有力的

We're going to talk

我们将会谈一谈

about what happens if people are overwhelmed and scared

如果人们很害怕选择投资401退休福利计划时

to make their 401(k) choices.

该怎么办

Are we going to make them automatically join the plan,

我们是应该让他们自愿加入计划，

or are they going to be left out?

还是让他们被落下

In too many 401(k) plans,

在许多401退休福利计划当中

if people do nothing,

如果人们什么也不做

it means they're not saving for retirement,

这就意味着如果他们不在方框中打勾

if they don't check the box.

他们就没有为未来存钱

And checking the box takes effort.

而打勾是花费精力的

So we've chatted about a couple of behavioral challenges.

我们已经谈及了几个行为障碍

One more before we flip the challenges into solutions,

在我们跨过挑战讨论解决方案之前 我们再来谈一个

having to do with monkeys and apples.

这个与猴子和苹果有关系

No, no, no, this is a real study

不 不 不 这是一项存在的研究

and it's got a lot to do with behavioral economics.

与行为经济学有很大关系

One group of monkeys gets an apple, they're pretty happy.

有一组猴子得到了一个苹果 它们很高兴

The other group gets two apples, one is taken away.

另一组猴子得到了两个苹果 但是有一个被拿走了

They still have an apple left.

它们只剩下了一个苹果

They're really mad.

它们就非常的愤怒

Why have you taken our apple?

为什么要拿走我们的苹果

This is the notion of loss aversion.

这就是由损失引起的厌恶情绪

We hate losing stuff,

我们讨厌失去东西

even if it doesn't mean a lot of risk.

即使我们并不会因此承担多大风险

You would hate to go to the ATM,

如果你去自动取款机取出100美元

take out 100 dollars

然后发现你丢了其中的20美元

and notice that you lost one of those $20 bills.

你很可能会很愤恨

It's very painful,

即使这并不意味着任何事情

even though it doesn't mean anything.

这还是非常令人心痛的

Those 20 dollars might have been a quick lunch.

这20美元很可能代表着一顿午餐

So this notion of loss aversion

所以这种对损失的愤恨情绪

kicks in when it comes to savings too,

在储蓄的时候同样也会发生

because people, mentally

因为人们

and emotionally and intuitively

从精神上，情感上和本能上

frame savings as a loss

都认为储蓄是一种损失

because I have to cut my spending.

因为我需要减少花销

So we talked about

那让我们来讨论一下

all sorts of behavioral challenges

最终可能会影响到储蓄的

having to do with savings eventually.

各种行为上的困难

Whether you think about immediate gratification,

无论你想到的是不是即时的喜悦

and the chocolates versus bananas,

还是巧克力与香蕉之间的选择

it's just painful to save now.

从现在开始存款就是很令人心痛的。

It's a lot more fun

现在开始花钱

to spend now.

却有趣得多

We talked about inertia and organ donations

我们讨论了惰性与器官捐赠

and checking the box.

以及是否在方框内打勾

If people have to check a lot of boxes

如果人们需要打很多个勾

to join a 401(k) plan,

才能加入401退休福利计划的话

they're going to keep procrastinating

他们就会搁置下这件事

and not join.

选择不去参加

And last, we talked about loss aversion,

最后，我们来谈下由损失引起的厌恶情绪

and the monkeys and the apples.

以及猴子和苹果的故事

If people frame mentally

如果人们在思想上认为

saving for retirement as a loss,

为退休而储蓄是一种损失的话

they're not going to be saving for retirement.

他们就不会打算为退休而储蓄

So we've got these challenges,

所以我们得出了以下人们可能面临的困难

and what Richard Thaler and I

理查德 泰勒和我

were always fascinated by --

总是对这些困难很感兴趣

take behavioral finance,

将行为金融学

make it behavioral finance on steroids

变得更加深入具体

or behavioral finance 2.0

或者我们可以称其为 行为金融学2.0版

or behavioral finance in action --

或者现实中的行为金融学

flip the challenges into solutions.

将所面临的困难化为解决方案

And we came up with an embarrassingly simple solution

我们得出了一个异常简单的解决方案

called Save More, not today, Tomorrow.

叫做 为了明天而储蓄 不是今天

How is it going to solve the challenges

那么这种方案将怎样解决

we chatted about?

我们刚刚谈到的这些困难呢？

If you think about the problem

如果你想到了

of bananas versus chocolates,

香蕉还是巧克力的问题

we think we're going to eat bananas next week.

想我们下周应该是吃香蕉

We think we're going to save more next year.

那么我们就应该想我们明年要存更多的钱

Save More Tomorrow

明天存更多的钱

invites employees

邀请员工

to save more maybe next year --

也许明年开始存更多的钱

sometime in the future

未来的某一天

when we can imagine ourselves

我们想象自己

eating bananas,

吃香蕉

volunteering more in the community,

或者志愿参加更多的社区活动的时候

exercising more and doing all the right things on the planet.

更多的锻炼或者是做所有正确的事情

Now we also talked about checking the box

现在我们再来谈一下在方框中打勾

and the difficulty of taking action.

以及采取行动所面临的困难

Save More Tomorrow

明天存更多的钱

makes it easy.

让这些困难变得简单

It's an autopilot.

他是一个自动驾驶仪

Once you tell me you would like to save more in the future,

一旦你告诉我你想要在未来存更多的钱

let's say every January

比如说每个一月份开始

you're going to be saving more automatically

你都想开始存更多的钱

and it's going to go away from your paycheck to the 401(k) plan

那么在你看到或拿到你的工资前

before you see it, before you touch it,

一部分钱就已经赚到了你的401退休福利计划当中

before you get the issue

这样你就不会有因为

of immediate gratification.

及时的喜悦而难以选择的问题

But what are we going to do about the monkeys

但是我们应该怎么处理那些猴子

and loss aversion?

和由损失引起的愤恨情绪呢

Next January comes

当明年一月份来临的时候

and people might feel that if they save more,

人们可能会觉得如果他们存更多的钱

they have to spend less, and that's painful.

那么他们需要少花钱 他们因此而心痛

Well, maybe it shouldn't be just January.

也许我们不应该仅仅从一月份开始

Maybe we should make people save more

当人们赚的越多的时候

when they make more money.

我们就应该让他们存的更多

That way, when they make more money, when they get a pay raise,

这样的话，当他们赚的越多，当他们的收入升高的时候

they don't have to cut their spending.

他们就不需要减少开支了

They take a little bit

他们可以将

of the increase in the paycheck home

涨的工资的一部分拿回家

and spend more --

增加开销

take a little bit of the increase

然后再多拿出一点

and put it in a 401(k) plan.

投入到401退休福利计划当中

So that is the program,

这就是我们的项目

embarrassingly simple,

非常非常的简单

but as we're going to see,

但是我们将会看到

extremely powerful.

非常有效的成果

We first implemented it,

理查德 泰勒和我

Richard Thaler and I,

最初施行这个项目

back in 1998.

是在1998年的时候

Mid-sized company in the Midwest,

在中西部的中型公司中的

blue collar employees

蓝领工人中间推行的

struggling to pay their bills

他们挣扎在交各种账单

repeatedly told us

他们不断地告诉我们

they cannot save more right away.

他们不能马上存下来钱

Saving more today is not an option.

今天存更多的钱不是可行的

We invited them to save

那么我们就让他们

three percentage points more

在每次涨工资的时候

every time they get a pay raise.

都多存3%的钱

And here are the results.

那么结果就是

We're seeing here a three and a half-year period,

在三年半的时间内

four pay raises,

他们的收入涨了四次

people who were struggling to save,

那些很难存下钱的人

were saving three percent of their paycheck,

就存下来了他们工资的3%

three and a half years later

三年半之后

saving almost four times as much,

他们就存下了大约四倍的数量

almost 14 percent.

也就是大约14%

And there's shoes and bicycles

就相当于买鞋和自行车的钱

and things on this chart

以及在这张表上显示的其他物品

because I don't want to just throw numbers

因为我不仅仅想

in a vacuum.

凭空用数字说话

I want, really, to think about the fact

我真的想要想一下这个事实

that saving four times more

那就是多存四倍的钱

is a huge difference

真的会在人们能支付的其的

in terms of the lifestyle

生活方式上

that people will be able to afford.

有很大的不同

It's real.

这是真的

It's not just numbers on a piece of paper.

这不仅仅是一张纸上的数字

Whereas with saving three percent,

然而当只存3%的钱的时候

people might have to add nice sneakers

人们可能只能买新的平板鞋

so they can walk,

为了走路

because they won't be able to afford anything else,

因为他们负担不起其他的东西

when they save 14 percent

要是他们存14%的话

they might be able to maybe have nice dress shoes

他们可能就有钱买漂亮的礼服鞋

to walk to the car to drive.

穿着开车出去玩

This is a real difference.

这是很大的不同

By now, about 60 percent of the large companies

到现在，有60%左右的大型公司

actually have programs like this in place.

已经实际上推行了这样的项目

It's been part of the Pension Protection Act.

这是养老金保护法案的一部分

And needless to say that Thaler and I

无需赘言 泰勒和我

have been blessed to be part of this program

也有幸成为这个项目的一部分

and make a difference.

并且做出了一些改变

Let me wrap

让我来总结

with two key messages.

两条重点

One is behavioral finance

第一点是行为金融学

is extremely powerful.

是非常强大的

This is just one example.

这仅仅是其中的一个例子

Message two

第二点就是

is there's still a lot to do.

我们要做的还有很多

This is really the tip of the iceberg.

这仅仅是冰山一角

If you think about people and mortgages

如果你想一下人们与按揭贷款

and buying houses and then not being able to pay for it,

人们在买房子 但是他们却根本支付不起

we need to think about that.

这是我们需要考虑的问题之一

If you're thinking about people taking too much risk

我们还需要想

and not understanding how much risk they're taking

要是人们承担了过多的风险

or taking too little risk,

却不知道他们到底承担了多少风险

we need to think about that.

或者是承担的太少的风险该怎么办

If you think about people spending a thousand dollars a year

我们还要想

on lottery tickets,

如果有人一年花1000美元在乐透彩上

we need to think about that.

该怎么办

The average actually,

实际上，平均而言

the record is in Singapore.

新加坡的数据就是如此

The average household

在那里每家每年花费4000美元

spends $4,000 a year on lottery tickets.

在买乐透彩上

We've got a lot to do,

我们要做的还有很多

a lot to solve,

我们有许多问题要解决

also in the retirement area

还有一个关于退休的问题是

when it comes to what people do with their money

当退休之后

after retirement.

人们如何分配他们的钱

One last question:

最后一个问题

How many of you feel comfortable

当你们为退休而打算的时候

that as you're planning for retirement

你们当中有多少人可以说

you have a really solid plan

关于你们何时退休

when you're going to retire,

你有一个很稳定的计划

when you're going to claim Social Security benefits,

什么时候去领社会保障金

what lifestyle to expect,

退休后过什么样的生活

how much to spend every month

你每个月需要花多少钱

so you're not going to run out of money?

才能保证钱足够花

How many of you feel you have a solid plan for the future

当谈到退休后的决定的时候

when it comes to post-retirement decisions.

在座有多少人认为你们对于未来的打算稳妥了呢

One, two, three, four.

一 二 三 四

Less than three percent

在这些经验丰富的观众中

of a very sophisticated audience.

只有不到3%

Behavioral finance has a long way.

行为金融学还有很长的路要走

There's a lot of opportunities

还有很多机会

to make it powerful again and again and again.

将它变得越来越强大

Thank you.

非常感谢

(Applause)

鼓掌