Shlomo Benartzi: Saving for tomorrow, tomorrow

譯者: Jacy Su 審譯者: Wang-Ju Tsai

I'm going to talk today about saving more,

我今天想聊聊存錢

but not today, tomorrow.

但不是今天，是明天

I'm going to talk about Save More Tomorrow.

我將要聊聊為明天儲存更多錢

It's a program that Richard Thaler

有一個計劃

from the University of Chicago and I

是來自芝加哥大學理查德泰勒和我一起

devised maybe 15 years ago.

大概15年前設計的

The program, in a sense,

這個計劃，從某種程度來說，

is an example of behavioral finance

是行為經濟學的一個例子

on steroids --

也就是－

how we could really use behavioral finance.

我們如何真正利用行為經濟學

Now you might ask, what is behavioral finance?

於是你會問，甚麼是行為經濟學？

So let's think about how we manage our money.

讓我們來思考我們平時是怎樣理財的

Let's start with mortgages.

我們從房貸說起

It's kind of a recent topic,

最近我們常看到這個話題

at least in the U.S.

至少在美國是如此

A lot of people buy

很多人買

the biggest house they can afford,

在他們支付能力範圍之內最大的房子

and actually slightly bigger than that.

事實上比可支付範圍還要稍大一些

And then they foreclose.

最後他們付不起房貸

And then they blame the banks

於是他們開始埋怨銀行

for being the bad guys who gave them the mortgages.

說銀行是貸款給他們的壞人

Let's also think about

我們再想想

how we manage risks --

我們怎樣管理風險－

for example, investing in the stock market.

舉個例子，投資股票市場

Two years ago, three years ago, about four years ago,

兩年前，三年前，大約四年前

markets did well.

市場運行得很好

We were risk takers, of course.

當然那時候我們都是投機者

Then market stocks seize

接著股票市場蕭條衰敗

and we're like, "Wow.

我們會想，“噢

These losses, they feel, emotionally,

這些損失，在情感上

they feel very different

他們確實感覺很不同

from what we actually thought about it

和股市行情上漲時

when markets were going up."

我們對損失的感覺不一樣”

So we're probably not doing a great job

所以在風險投機上

when it comes to risk taking.

我們似乎也做的不太好

How many of you have iPhones?

你們有多少人用iPhone？

Anyone? Wonderful.

有人麼？非常好

I would bet many more of you

我打賭這裡擁有iPhone的人中的大多數

insure your iPhone --

都給你的iPhone買保險了

you're implicitly buying insurance by having an extended warranty.

你通過加買的質保暗中給手機買了保險

What if you lose your iPhone?

如果你丟失了你的iPhone

What if you do this?

你會怎麼辦呢？

How many of you have kids?

你們中多少人有小孩？

Anyone?

有人有嗎？

Keep your hands up

手再擧著不要放

if you have sufficient life insurance.

如果你有購買生命保險的話

I see a lot of hands coming down.

我看到很多手放下去了

I would predict,

我會預測

if you're a representative sample,

如果你是一個典型的代表

that many more of you

你們中的很多人

insure your iPhones than your lives,

為你的iPhone買了保險卻沒有為你的生命買保險

even when you have kids.

即便你已經有了小孩

We're not doing that well when it comes to insurance.

在買保險的方面我們做得也不是很好

The average American household

美國家庭平均每戶

spends 1,000 dollars a year

一年要在樂透上

on lotteries.

花費1,000美元

And I know it sounds crazy.

我知道這聽起來很瘋狂

How many of you spend a thousand dollars a year on lotteries?

你們中有多少人一年會花1,000美金買樂透？

No one.

沒有人

So that tells us that the people not in this room

那麽這告訴我們有些不在這個房間裡的人

are spending more than a thousand

買樂透超過了一千美金

to get the average to a thousand.

所以最終平均才會等於一千美金

Low-income people

特別是有些低收入戶

spend a lot more than a thousand on lotteries.

一年在樂透上花費了超過一千美金

So where does it take us?

於是這告訴我們甚麼？

We're not doing a great job managing money.

我們在理財上做得也不是很好

Behavioral finance is really a combination

行為經濟學實際上

of psychology and economics,

是心理學和經濟學的一個綜合

trying to understand

讓我們瞭解

the money mistakes people make.

為甚麼人們在金錢問題上會犯錯

And I can keep standing here

我可以站在這裡

for the 12 minutes and 53 seconds that I have left

用我剩下的12分鐘53秒

and make fun of all sorts of ways

把我們理財用的各種方法

we manage money,

當作笑話講給各位聼

and at the end you're going to ask, "How can we help people?"

到最後你會問，“我們怎樣幫助人們？”

And that's what I really want to focus on today.

所以我今天真正想關注的是

How do we take an understanding

我們如何理解

of the money mistakes people make,

人們在金錢問題上犯的錯誤

and then turning the behavioral challenges

以及怎樣把行為性挑戰

into behavioral solutions?

轉化為行為性的解決方案？

And what I'm going to talk about today

我今天要談的

is Save More Tomorrow.

是為明天節省更多

I want to address the issue

我要討論的

of savings.

是存錢這個問題

We have on the screen

在屏幕上

a representative sample

有具有代表性的

of 100 Americans.

100個美國人

And we're going to look at their saving behavior.

我們來看看他們的儲蓄習慣

First thing to notice is,

第一件需要注意的事情是

half of them

他們中一半的人

do not even have access

都沒有參加

to a 401(k) plan.

401(k)退休福利計劃

They cannot make savings easy.

存錢對他們來説很不容易

They cannot have money go away from their paycheck

他們不能把錢從他們的支票

into a 401(k) plan

押到進入401(k)計劃裏

before they see it,

他們一看到錢就花

before they can touch it.

一摸到錢就花

What about the remaining half of the people?

那麼剩下的一半人呢？

Some of them elect not to save.

一些人傾向於不存款

They're just too lazy.

他們只是太懶了

They never get around to logging into a complicated website

他們從沒有登入過一個複雜一點的網站

and doing 17 clicks to join the 401(k) plan.

點擊17下加入401(k)計劃

And then they have to decide how they're going to invest

當他們決定他們要去投資的時候

in their 52 choices,

在他們的52個選擇裡

and they never heard about what is a money market fund.

他們從未聽說過基金

And they get overwhelmed and the just don't join.

他們覺得太複雜了於是就沒加入

How many people end up saving to a 401(k) plan?

最終有多少人向該計劃存款？

One third of Americans.

只有三分之一的美國人

Two thirds are not saving now.

三分之二都不存款

Are they saving enough?

他們存得夠多嗎？

Take out those

除去那些

who say they save too little.

說自己存的太少的人

One out of 10

十分之一的人

are saving enough.

覺得自己存款夠了

Nine out of 10

十分之九

either cannot save through their 401(k) plan,

有的不能徹底執行401(k)計劃存到退休金

decide not to save -- or don't decide --

所以決定不存或是下不了決定

or save too little.

有的則是存得太少

We think we have a problem

對於那些存款太多的人

of people saving too much.

我們覺得也有一些問題

Let's look at that.

我們來看這裡

We have one person --

有一個人－

well, actually we're going to slice him in half

其實我們要把他切成一半

because it's less than one percent.

因為小於百分之一

Roughly half a percent of Americans

差不多只有百分之零點五的美國人

feel that they save too much.

認為他們存得夠多了

What are we going to do about it?

我們對此能做甚麼呢？

That's what I really want to focus on.

以下就是我真正想要關注的

We have to understand

我們必須先明白

why people are not saving,

為甚麼人們不去存款

and then we can hopefully flip

接著我們才能

the behavioral challenges

把行為性挑戰

into behavioral solutions,

轉化為行為性解決方案

and then see how powerful it might be.

並看看這會有多大效果

So let me divert for a second

所以接下來讓我稍微轉移一下話題

as we're going to identify the problems,

因爲我們必須要認清問題

the challenges, the behavioral challenges,

我們面對的挑戰，行為性挑戰

that prevent people from saving.

去找出阻止人們存錢的原因

I'm going to divert and talk about bananas and chocolate.

我要轉移到下一個話題，來談談香蕉和巧克力

Suppose we had another wonderful TED event next week.

假設下一周我們有另一場非常棒的TED活動

And during the break

休息期間

there would be a snack

將會有零食供應

and you could choose bananas or chocolate.

你可以選擇香蕉或是巧克力

How many of you think you would like to have bananas

你們中有多少人覺得你會在

during this hypothetical TED event next week?

下週假想的晚會中選擇香蕉？

Who would go for bananas?

誰會選擇香蕉？

Wonderful.

不錯

I predict scientifically

我科學地預測一下

74 percent of you will go for bananas.

百分之七十四的人會選擇香蕉

Well that's at least what one wonderful study predicted.

這至少是一個權威的科學研究預測的

And then count down the days

接著我們倒數日子

and see what people ended up eating.

最後來看看人們最後到底吃了些甚麼

The same people that imagined themselves

一個禮拜之後

eating the bananas

那些認為

ended up eating chocolates

他們會吃香蕉的人

a week later.

最終都選擇了巧克力

Self-control

自制力

is not a problem in the future.

在未來來説並不是一個問題

It's only a problem now

當巧克力離我們很近的時候

when the chocolate is next to us.

自制力就會有問題了

What does it have to do with time and savings,

這種瞬間的喜悅

this issue of immediate gratification?

和我們時間以及儲蓄有甚麼關聯？

Or as some economists call it, present bias.

或者就像一些經濟學家所講的，現在狀態的偏見

We think about saving. We know we should be saving.

我們想著如何儲蓄，我們知道我們應該存錢

We know we'll do it next year, but today let us go and spend.

我們知道明年我們會做，但是今天就讓我們花錢吧

Christmas is coming,

聖誕節要來了

we might as well buy a lot of gifts for everyone we know.

我們最好給我們認識的人買很多禮物

So this issue of present bias

所以“現在狀態的偏見”

causes us to think about saving,

導致我們考慮儲蓄

but end up spending.

最後卻把錢花掉了

Let me now talk

讓我現在來講

about another behavioral obstacle to saving

另一個關於儲蓄的行為性障礙

having to do with inertia.

這和慣性有關

But again, a little diversion

再一次，小小地轉移話題

to the topic of organ donation.

到器官捐獻上

Wonderful study comparing different countries.

有一份很完美的研究比較了不同國家之間的情況

We're going to look at two similar countries,

我們來看兩個相似的國家

Germany and Austria.

德國和奧地利

And in Germany,

在德國

if you would like to donate your organs --

如果你想要捐贈你的器官－

God forbid something really bad

上帝會禁止一些非常壞的事情

happens to you --

發生在你的身上

when you get your driving license or an I.D.,

當你拿到你的駕照或是一個ID卡

you check the box saying,

勾選一個小方格

"I would like to donate my organs."

“我願意捐贈我的器官”

Not many people like checking boxes.

不太多人願意勾選小方格

It takes effort. You need to think.

這要花費力氣，你需要想

Twelve percent do.

百分之十二的人會去勾選

Austria, a neighboring country,

在鄰國奧地利

slightly similar, slightly different.

有點相同而又有點不同

What's the difference?

有甚麼不同？

Well, you still have choice.

嗯，你還是可以選擇的

You will decide

你會選

whether you want to donate your organs or not.

是否希望捐贈器官

But when you get your driving license,

但當你得到你的駕照

you check the box

你要勾選一個方格

if you do not want to donate your organ.

“如果你不想要捐贈你的器官”

Nobody checks boxes.

基本上沒有人勾這項

That's kind of too much effort.

這太費力氣了

One percent check the box. The rest do nothing.

只有百分之一的人勾選，剩下的人甚麼都沒做

Doing nothing is very common.

放著不做是通常會發生的行為

Not many people check boxes.

沒幾個人勾選方格

What are the implications

拯救生命

to saving lives

和捐贈器官之間

and having organs available?

有什麽關聯？

In Germany, 12 percent check the box.

在德國，百分之十二的人勾選這個格子

Twelve percent are organ donors.

於是只有百分之十二的人成為器官捐贈者

Huge shortage of organs,

導致了巨大的器官短缺

God forbid, if you need one.

當你需要時上帝會禁止

In Austria, again, nobody checks the box.

在奧地利，沒有人勾選這個方格

Therefore, 99 percent of people

於是，百分之九十九的人

are organ donors.

都是器官捐贈者

Inertia, lack of action.

慣性，缺乏行動

What is the default setting

原始狀態會是什麽

if people do nothing,

如果人們甚麼都不做？

if they keep procrastinating, if they don't check the boxes?

如果他們一直拖延，如果他們不勾選方格？

Very powerful.

這是非常有效的

We're going to talk

我們即將講到

about what happens if people are overwhelmed and scared

如果人們覺得難以應付或害怕

to make their 401(k) choices.

去加入401(k)計劃

Are we going to make them automatically join the plan,

我們是讓他們自動加入計劃

or are they going to be left out?

還是就放任不管？

In too many 401(k) plans,

在太多的計劃之中

if people do nothing,

如果人們甚麼都不做

it means they're not saving for retirement,

如果他們不勾選方格

if they don't check the box.

意味著他們並沒有在儲存退休金

And checking the box takes effort.

當然勾選方格需要付出努力

So we've chatted about a couple of behavioral challenges.

以上我們談了幾項行為性挑戰

One more before we flip the challenges into solutions,

在談解決方案之前我們還要再講一個例子

having to do with monkeys and apples.

是關於猴子和蘋果的例子

No, no, no, this is a real study

不不不，這是一個真實的研究

and it's got a lot to do with behavioral economics.

這和行為經濟學有很大關係

One group of monkeys gets an apple, they're pretty happy.

一群猴子得到一個蘋果，他們很開心

The other group gets two apples, one is taken away.

另外一群猴子得到兩個蘋果，其中一個被拿走了

They still have an apple left.

他們仍然有一個蘋果

They're really mad.

不過他們非常生氣

Why have you taken our apple?

“你為甚麼拿走我們的蘋果？”

This is the notion of loss aversion.

這就叫做對於失去的厭惡感

We hate losing stuff,

我們憎恨失去東西

even if it doesn't mean a lot of risk.

即使這並不意味著很高風險

You would hate to go to the ATM,

你不會喜歡去自動提款機提款時

take out 100 dollars

提出100美金以後

and notice that you lost one of those $20 bills.

發現你丟失了其中一張20元的鈔票

It's very painful,

即使這沒什麽大不了

even though it doesn't mean anything.

但這卻很令人痛苦

Those 20 dollars might have been a quick lunch.

用這20美金本來可以吃一頓午餐

So this notion of loss aversion

所以關於失去厭惡感的想法

kicks in when it comes to savings too,

同樣也會發生在儲蓄上

because people, mentally

因為人，在精神上

and emotionally and intuitively

和情緒上直覺地認為

frame savings as a loss

存錢儲蓄是一種失去

because I have to cut my spending.

因為爲了存錢我必須減少我的支出

So we talked about

所以當我們講到

all sorts of behavioral challenges

各式各樣的行為性挑戰

having to do with savings eventually.

最終都和儲蓄有關

Whether you think about immediate gratification,

不管你是想到瞬間的滿足

and the chocolates versus bananas,

巧克力對香蕉

it's just painful to save now.

現在就去存錢是很痛苦的

It's a lot more fun

相比之下

to spend now.

即刻花錢是更快樂的

We talked about inertia and organ donations

我們談到慣性和器官捐贈

and checking the box.

還有勾選方格

If people have to check a lot of boxes

如果人麼需要勾選很多的方格

to join a 401(k) plan,

來加入401(k)計劃

they're going to keep procrastinating

他們將會一直拖延下去

and not join.

最終不參加

And last, we talked about loss aversion,

最後，我們談到了對於失去的厭惡感

and the monkeys and the apples.

猴子和蘋果的故事

If people frame mentally

如果一個人心中認為

saving for retirement as a loss,

對於退休金的儲存是一種失去

they're not going to be saving for retirement.

他們將不會去做

So we've got these challenges,

所以這些是我們眼前的挑戰

and what Richard Thaler and I

理查泰勒和我

were always fascinated by --

都一直為一件事著迷－

take behavioral finance,

將傳統的行為經濟學

make it behavioral finance on steroids

升級成為行為經濟學加強版

or behavioral finance 2.0

行為經濟學2.0

or behavioral finance in action --

或者行動行為經濟學－

flip the challenges into solutions.

把挑戰轉化為解決方案

And we came up with an embarrassingly simple solution

最後我們得出了一個非常簡單的解決方案

called Save More, not today, Tomorrow.

叫做存得更多，不是今天，是明天

How is it going to solve the challenges

那麽我們認為

we chatted about?

應該如何解決這個挑戰？

If you think about the problem

如果你想到

of bananas versus chocolates,

香蕉和巧克力的問題

we think we're going to eat bananas next week.

我們想我們下一周要吃香蕉

We think we're going to save more next year.

我們想明年我們要存更多

Save More Tomorrow

明天再存更多

invites employees

邀請職員

to save more maybe next year --

明年存更多－

sometime in the future

在未來的某個時候

when we can imagine ourselves

當我們能想像到我們自己

eating bananas,

吃香蕉

volunteering more in the community,

在社區裡做更多的志願者工作

exercising more and doing all the right things on the planet.

作更多的練習和在這個星球上做對的事情

Now we also talked about checking the box

現在我們也談論了勾選方格

and the difficulty of taking action.

和採取行動的困難性

Save More Tomorrow

明天存更多

makes it easy.

讓選擇變得容易

It's an autopilot.

一切變成全自動

Once you tell me you would like to save more in the future,

一旦你告訴我你未來想要存得更多

let's say every January

譬如說每年一月

you're going to be saving more automatically

你都要自動存更多

and it's going to go away from your paycheck to the 401(k) plan

那麽將會直接從薪水匯到到你的401(k)計劃裏

before you see it, before you touch it,

在你看到錢之前，在你能碰到錢之前

before you get the issue

在你感到短暫的滿足感之前

of immediate gratification.

問題已經被處理掉了

But what are we going to do about the monkeys

但是對於猴子和厭惡失去的問題

and loss aversion?

我們該怎麽處理呢？

Next January comes

下一個一月到來了

and people might feel that if they save more,

人們感覺如果他們存得更多

they have to spend less, and that's painful.

他們花費將變得更少，於是他們將感到痛苦

Well, maybe it shouldn't be just January.

好吧，或許應該說不限於一月份

Maybe we should make people save more

或許我們要在人們賺更多錢的時候

when they make more money.

來存得更多

That way, when they make more money, when they get a pay raise,

這樣一來，當他們賺得更多，酬金升高時

they don't have to cut their spending.

他們將不會覺得支出被削減了

They take a little bit

從他們多賺的錢裏面

of the increase in the paycheck home

拿一部分回家

and spend more --

來使花費得更多－

take a little bit of the increase

再把多賺得錢的另一部份

and put it in a 401(k) plan.

投入401(k)計劃中

So that is the program,

所以這個計劃

embarrassingly simple,

非常得簡單

but as we're going to see,

但我們將要看到的

extremely powerful.

是非常非常有利的結果

We first implemented it,

在1998年

Richard Thaler and I,

理查德和我

back in 1998.

第一次讓計劃生效

Mid-sized company in the Midwest,

在中西部得一些中小型企業

blue collar employees

那些為支付賬單

struggling to pay their bills

搞得焦頭爛額的藍領員工們

repeatedly told us

不斷告訴我們

they cannot save more right away.

他們無法存得更多

Saving more today is not an option.

今日存更多並不是一個選擇

We invited them to save

我們邀請他們

three percentage points more

在每次薪水調高的時候

every time they get a pay raise.

加把存進百分之三以上

And here are the results.

結果就在這裡

We're seeing here a three and a half-year period,

我們看到三年半的實踐中

four pay raises,

四次的調薪

people who were struggling to save,

那些過去無法存款的人們

were saving three percent of their paycheck,

存了他們酬金中的百分之三

three and a half years later

三年半之後

saving almost four times as much,

竟然存了4倍之多

almost 14 percent.

幾乎達到百分之十四

And there's shoes and bicycles

這是鞋子和單車

and things on this chart

和表格上的東西

because I don't want to just throw numbers

因為我不想直接

in a vacuum.

憑空說數字

I want, really, to think about the fact

說真正，大家來想想這個結果

that saving four times more

存到四倍之多的存款

is a huge difference

這是生活方式中的

in terms of the lifestyle

一個巨大差別

that people will be able to afford.

人們將有能力償還了

It's real.

這是真實的

It's not just numbers on a piece of paper.

這不僅僅是一張白紙上的數字

Whereas with saving three percent,

當存百分之三時

people might have to add nice sneakers

人們可能因此有了一雙很好的運動鞋

so they can walk,

只能走路

because they won't be able to afford anything else,

因為他們買不起其他東西

when they save 14 percent

而當他們存了百分之十四之後

they might be able to maybe have nice dress shoes

他們或許可以有能力支付很好的裙子或是鞋子

to walk to the car to drive.

能夠走到車裡開車

This is a real difference.

這是一個巨大的不同

By now, about 60 percent of the large companies

直到如今，大約百分之60的大企業

actually have programs like this in place.

都有在落實類似的項目

It's been part of the Pension Protection Act.

這已經成為了退休金保護計劃中的一部分

And needless to say that Thaler and I

而泰勒和我

have been blessed to be part of this program

已經成為這個項目的一分子

and make a difference.

來創造不同

Let me wrap

讓我們來最後

with two key messages.

用兩個非常重要的信息來作結論

One is behavioral finance

一個是行為經濟學

is extremely powerful.

是很有用的

This is just one example.

這只是一個例子

Message two

第二條信息是

is there's still a lot to do.

還有很多需要去落實

This is really the tip of the iceberg.

這真的只是冰山一角

If you think about people and mortgages

如果你想到人們和房貸

and buying houses and then not being able to pay for it,

還有買了房子卻無力償還貸款

we need to think about that.

我們應該想想這個項目

If you're thinking about people taking too much risk

如果你想到人們採取太多冒險行為

and not understanding how much risk they're taking

卻不了解他們在冒多大的風險

or taking too little risk,

或是多小的風險

we need to think about that.

我們應該想想這個項目

If you think about people spending a thousand dollars a year

如果你想到人們每年花費一千美金

on lottery tickets,

去買樂透券

we need to think about that.

我們應該想到這個項目

The average actually,

在新加坡

the record is in Singapore.

實際記錄中

The average household

平均每戶

spends $4,000 a year on lottery tickets.

每年會花費4000美金購買樂透

We've got a lot to do,

我們該做的還很多

a lot to solve,

很多需要解決的

also in the retirement area

還有在退休金領域裏

when it comes to what people do with their money

這涉及到人們在退休後

after retirement.

怎樣理財

One last question:

最後一個問題：

How many of you feel comfortable

你們中有多少人

that as you're planning for retirement

覺得你們在計劃退休之後的事情

you have a really solid plan

覺得你自己在退休之後

when you're going to retire,

有一個很實際的理財計劃？

when you're going to claim Social Security benefits,

當你要領取社保福利的時候

what lifestyle to expect,

你期待著那一種生活方式

how much to spend every month

一個月將要支付多少元

so you're not going to run out of money?

最終你將不會透支？

How many of you feel you have a solid plan for the future

有多少人認為自己在未來的後退休計劃中

when it comes to post-retirement decisions.

有一個很務實的計劃？

One, two, three, four.

一，二，三，四

Less than three percent

只有小於百分之三的人會這麽做

of a very sophisticated audience.

雖然在座的都是聰明人

Behavioral finance has a long way.

行為經濟學是一條長路

There's a lot of opportunities

有很多的機會

to make it powerful again and again and again.

能讓它變得一次一次再一次的有用

Thank you.

謝謝

(Applause)

（掌聲）