Shlomo Benartzi: Saving for tomorrow, tomorrow

Translator: Alexander Kolev Reviewer: Yavor Ivanov

I'm going to talk today about saving more,

Днес ще говоря за това как да спестим повече,

but not today, tomorrow.

но не днес, а утре.

I'm going to talk about Save More Tomorrow.

Ще говоря за "Спестете повече утре".

It's a program that Richard Thaler

Това е програма, която Ричърд Тейлър

from the University of Chicago and I

от Чикагския университет и аз

devised maybe 15 years ago.

създадохме преди, може би, 15 години.

The program, in a sense,

Всъщност програмата е

is an example of behavioral finance

пример за поведенчески финанси

on steroids --

на стероиди -

how we could really use behavioral finance.

как наистина можем да използваме поведенческите финанси.

Now you might ask, what is behavioral finance?

Сега ще попитате какво е поведенчески финанси?

So let's think about how we manage our money.

Нека да помислим как управляваме парите си.

Let's start with mortgages.

Да започнем от ипотеките.

It's kind of a recent topic,

Това е доста актуална тема,

at least in the U.S.

поне в САЩ.

A lot of people buy

Много хора купуват

the biggest house they can afford,

възможно най-голямата къща, която могат да си позволят,

and actually slightly bigger than that.

дори малко по-голяма.

And then they foreclose.

И после не могат да я изплатят.

And then they blame the banks

И после обвиняват банките,

for being the bad guys who gave them the mortgages.

лошите хора, които са им отпуснали ипотеката.

Let's also think about

Нека да помислим също

how we manage risks --

за това как управляваме рисковете,

for example, investing in the stock market.

например, инвестициите на фондовата борса.

Two years ago, three years ago, about four years ago,

Преди две, три, четири години

markets did well.

пазарите вървяха добре.

We were risk takers, of course.

Поемахме рискове, естествено.

Then market stocks seize

След това акциите на пазара се свиха

and we're like, "Wow.

и си казахме "Леле,

These losses, they feel, emotionally,

тези загуби, те се усещат, на емоциално ниво,

they feel very different

по различен начин

from what we actually thought about it

от това, което си представяхме,

when markets were going up."

когато пазарите растяха.

So we're probably not doing a great job

Следователно, може би не се справяме толкова добре

when it comes to risk taking.

с поемането на рискове.

How many of you have iPhones?

Колко от вас имат "Айфон"?

Anyone? Wonderful.

Някой? Чудесно.

I would bet many more of you

Бих се обзаложил, че повечето от вас

insure your iPhone --

застраховат "Айфон"-ите си -

you're implicitly buying insurance by having an extended warranty.

вие го застраховате дори като продължите гаранцията.

What if you lose your iPhone?

В случай, че го изгубите,

What if you do this?

или какво ли още не.

How many of you have kids?

Колко от вас имат деца?

Anyone?

Някой?

Keep your hands up

Дръжте си ръцете вдигнати,

if you have sufficient life insurance.

ако имате достатъчно голяма застраховка "Живот".

I see a lot of hands coming down.

Виждам много ръце да се свалят.

I would predict,

Бих казал,

if you're a representative sample,

ако кажем, че сте официална извадка,

that many more of you

че повече хора от вас

insure your iPhones than your lives,

застраховат "Айфон"-а отколкото живота си

even when you have kids.

дори, когато имате деца.

We're not doing that well when it comes to insurance.

Не се справяме толкова добре със застраховането.

The average American household

Средностатистическото американско домакинство

spends 1,000 dollars a year

харчи хиляда долара на година

on lotteries.

за лотарии.

And I know it sounds crazy.

Знам,че звучи като лудост.

How many of you spend a thousand dollars a year on lotteries?

Колко от вас харчат по хиляда долара на година за лотарии?

No one.

Никой.

So that tells us that the people not in this room

Следователно, хората извън тази стая

are spending more than a thousand

харчат повече от хиляда,

to get the average to a thousand.

за да бъде средностатическата сума хиляда.

Low-income people

Хора с ниски доходи

spend a lot more than a thousand on lotteries.

харчат много повече от хиляда долара за лотарии.

So where does it take us?

До какво заключение можем да стигнем?

We're not doing a great job managing money.

Не се справяме много добре с управляването на парите си.

Behavioral finance is really a combination

Поведенческите финанси, всъщност, е комбинация

of psychology and economics,

от психология и икономика,

trying to understand

целта е да разберем

the money mistakes people make.

грешките, които хората правят с парите си.

And I can keep standing here

Аз мога да си седя тук,

for the 12 minutes and 53 seconds that I have left

през останалите 12 минути и 53 секунди, които ми остават,

and make fun of all sorts of ways

и да се шегувам с различните начини,

we manage money,

по които ние управляваме пари,

and at the end you're going to ask, "How can we help people?"

но накрая ще ме попитате "Как можем да помогнем на хората?"

And that's what I really want to focus on today.

И това е, на което искам да обърна внимание днес.

How do we take an understanding

Усмислянето на

of the money mistakes people make,

грешките, които хората правят с парите си,

and then turning the behavioral challenges

и променянето на тези поведенчески проблеми

into behavioral solutions?

в поведенчески решения.

And what I'm going to talk about today

И това, за което ще говоря днес

is Save More Tomorrow.

е "Спестете повече утре".

I want to address the issue

Нека поговорим

of savings.

за проблема със спестяванята.

We have on the screen

На екрана имаме

a representative sample

официална извадка

of 100 Americans.

от 100 американци.

And we're going to look at their saving behavior.

Нека погледнем тяхното поведение при спестяването.

First thing to notice is,

Първото нещо, което прави впечатление е, че

half of them

половината от тях

do not even have access

въобще нямат достъп

to a 401(k) plan.

до план за 401 хиляди долара спестяваня.

They cannot make savings easy.

Те не спестяват лесно.

They cannot have money go away from their paycheck

Те не могат да спестят от заплатите си

into a 401(k) plan

към този план за 401 хиляди долара.

before they see it,

Преди да видят парите си.

before they can touch it.

Преди да се докоснат до тях.

What about the remaining half of the people?

Ами останалата половина от хората?

Some of them elect not to save.

Някои от тях предпочитат да не спестяват.

They're just too lazy.

Те са просто мързеливи.

They never get around to logging into a complicated website

Те никога не влизат в сложни сайтове,

and doing 17 clicks to join the 401(k) plan.

които им казват как да започнат план за 401 хиляди долара.

And then they have to decide how they're going to invest

И после, когато трябва да решат как да инвестират парите си,

in their 52 choices,

и имат 52 избора,

and they never heard about what is a money market fund.

и трябва да мислят и за паричните пазари,

And they get overwhelmed and the just don't join.

те са заляти с информация и просто се отказват.

How many people end up saving to a 401(k) plan?

Колко души спестяват до целта от 401 хиляди долара?

One third of Americans.

Една трета от американците.

Two thirds are not saving now.

Две трети не спестяват.

Are they saving enough?

Спестяват ли достатъчно?

Take out those

Вземете за пример тези,

who say they save too little.

които казват, че спестяват твърде малко.

One out of 10

Един от десет

are saving enough.

спестява достатъчно.

Nine out of 10

Девет от десет

either cannot save through their 401(k) plan,

или не могат да спестят до 401 хиляди долара,

decide not to save -- or don't decide --

или решават да не спестяват, или не решават,

or save too little.

или спестяват твърде малко.

We think we have a problem

Мисля, че имаме проблем с

of people saving too much.

хората, които спестяват твърде много.

Let's look at that.

Нека погледнем.

We have one person --

Имаме един човек -

well, actually we're going to slice him in half

всъщност, нека го разрежем на половина,

because it's less than one percent.

защото е по-малко от 1 процент.

Roughly half a percent of Americans

Около половина процент от американците

feel that they save too much.

смятат, че спестяват твърде много.

What are we going to do about it?

Какво ще направим по този въпрос?

That's what I really want to focus on.

На това искам да се фокусирам.

We have to understand

Трябва да разберем

why people are not saving,

защо хората не спестяват

and then we can hopefully flip

и така да обърнем тези

the behavioral challenges

поведенчески проблеми

into behavioral solutions,

в поведенчески решения,

and then see how powerful it might be.

и тогава да видим дали тези решение помагат.

So let me divert for a second

Позволете ми да отклоня темата за секунда

as we're going to identify the problems,

от посочването

the challenges, the behavioral challenges,

на тези проблеми, тези поведенчески проблеми

that prevent people from saving.

които пречат на хората да спестяват.

I'm going to divert and talk about bananas and chocolate.

Ще отклоня темата към бананите и шоколада.

Suppose we had another wonderful TED event next week.

Представете си, че имаме още чудесна TED презентация следващата седмица

And during the break

и по време на почивката

there would be a snack

има ордьоври

and you could choose bananas or chocolate.

и Вие можете да си изберете между банани и шоколад.

How many of you think you would like to have bananas

Колко от вас ще изберат бананите

during this hypothetical TED event next week?

по време на тази почивка?

Who would go for bananas?

Кой ще избере бананите?

Wonderful.

Чудесно.

I predict scientifically

74 percent of you will go for bananas.

Well that's at least what one wonderful study predicted.

And then count down the days

and see what people ended up eating.

The same people that imagined themselves

eating the bananas

ended up eating chocolates

a week later.

Self-control

is not a problem in the future.

It's only a problem now

when the chocolate is next to us.

What does it have to do with time and savings,

this issue of immediate gratification?

Or as some economists call it, present bias.

We think about saving. We know we should be saving.

We know we'll do it next year, but today let us go and spend.

Christmas is coming,

we might as well buy a lot of gifts for everyone we know.

So this issue of present bias

causes us to think about saving,

but end up spending.

Let me now talk

about another behavioral obstacle to saving

having to do with inertia.

But again, a little diversion

to the topic of organ donation.

Wonderful study comparing different countries.

We're going to look at two similar countries,

Germany and Austria.

And in Germany,

if you would like to donate your organs --

God forbid something really bad

happens to you --

when you get your driving license or an I.D.,

you check the box saying,

"I would like to donate my organs."

Not many people like checking boxes.

It takes effort. You need to think.

Twelve percent do.

Austria, a neighboring country,

slightly similar, slightly different.

What's the difference?

Well, you still have choice.

You will decide

whether you want to donate your organs or not.

But when you get your driving license,

you check the box

if you do not want to donate your organ.

Nobody checks boxes.

That's kind of too much effort.

One percent check the box. The rest do nothing.

Doing nothing is very common.

Not many people check boxes.

What are the implications

to saving lives

and having organs available?

In Germany, 12 percent check the box.

Twelve percent are organ donors.

Huge shortage of organs,

God forbid, if you need one.

In Austria, again, nobody checks the box.

Therefore, 99 percent of people

are organ donors.

Inertia, lack of action.

What is the default setting

if people do nothing,

if they keep procrastinating, if they don't check the boxes?

Very powerful.

We're going to talk

about what happens if people are overwhelmed and scared

to make their 401(k) choices.

Are we going to make them automatically join the plan,

or are they going to be left out?

In too many 401(k) plans,

if people do nothing,

it means they're not saving for retirement,

if they don't check the box.

And checking the box takes effort.

So we've chatted about a couple of behavioral challenges.

One more before we flip the challenges into solutions,

having to do with monkeys and apples.

No, no, no, this is a real study

and it's got a lot to do with behavioral economics.

One group of monkeys gets an apple, they're pretty happy.

The other group gets two apples, one is taken away.

They still have an apple left.

They're really mad.

Why have you taken our apple?

This is the notion of loss aversion.

We hate losing stuff,

even if it doesn't mean a lot of risk.

You would hate to go to the ATM,

take out 100 dollars

and notice that you lost one of those $20 bills.

It's very painful,

even though it doesn't mean anything.

Those 20 dollars might have been a quick lunch.

So this notion of loss aversion

kicks in when it comes to savings too,

because people, mentally

and emotionally and intuitively

frame savings as a loss

because I have to cut my spending.

So we talked about

all sorts of behavioral challenges

having to do with savings eventually.

Whether you think about immediate gratification,

and the chocolates versus bananas,

it's just painful to save now.

It's a lot more fun

to spend now.

We talked about inertia and organ donations

and checking the box.

If people have to check a lot of boxes

to join a 401(k) plan,

they're going to keep procrastinating

and not join.

And last, we talked about loss aversion,

and the monkeys and the apples.

If people frame mentally

saving for retirement as a loss,

they're not going to be saving for retirement.

So we've got these challenges,

and what Richard Thaler and I

were always fascinated by --

take behavioral finance,

make it behavioral finance on steroids

or behavioral finance 2.0

or behavioral finance in action --

flip the challenges into solutions.

And we came up with an embarrassingly simple solution

called Save More, not today, Tomorrow.

How is it going to solve the challenges

we chatted about?

If you think about the problem

of bananas versus chocolates,

we think we're going to eat bananas next week.

We think we're going to save more next year.

Save More Tomorrow

invites employees

to save more maybe next year --

sometime in the future

when we can imagine ourselves

eating bananas,

volunteering more in the community,

exercising more and doing all the right things on the planet.

Now we also talked about checking the box

and the difficulty of taking action.

Save More Tomorrow

makes it easy.

It's an autopilot.

Once you tell me you would like to save more in the future,

let's say every January

you're going to be saving more automatically

and it's going to go away from your paycheck to the 401(k) plan

before you see it, before you touch it,

before you get the issue

of immediate gratification.

But what are we going to do about the monkeys

and loss aversion?

Next January comes

and people might feel that if they save more,

they have to spend less, and that's painful.

Well, maybe it shouldn't be just January.

Maybe we should make people save more

when they make more money.

That way, when they make more money, when they get a pay raise,

they don't have to cut their spending.

They take a little bit

of the increase in the paycheck home

and spend more --

take a little bit of the increase

and put it in a 401(k) plan.

So that is the program,

embarrassingly simple,

but as we're going to see,

extremely powerful.

We first implemented it,

Richard Thaler and I,

back in 1998.

Mid-sized company in the Midwest,

blue collar employees

struggling to pay their bills

repeatedly told us

they cannot save more right away.

Saving more today is not an option.

We invited them to save

three percentage points more

every time they get a pay raise.

And here are the results.

We're seeing here a three and a half-year period,

four pay raises,

people who were struggling to save,

were saving three percent of their paycheck,

three and a half years later

saving almost four times as much,

almost 14 percent.

And there's shoes and bicycles

and things on this chart

because I don't want to just throw numbers

in a vacuum.

I want, really, to think about the fact

that saving four times more

is a huge difference

in terms of the lifestyle

that people will be able to afford.

It's real.

It's not just numbers on a piece of paper.

Whereas with saving three percent,

people might have to add nice sneakers

so they can walk,

because they won't be able to afford anything else,

when they save 14 percent

they might be able to maybe have nice dress shoes

to walk to the car to drive.

This is a real difference.

By now, about 60 percent of the large companies

actually have programs like this in place.

It's been part of the Pension Protection Act.

And needless to say that Thaler and I

have been blessed to be part of this program

and make a difference.

Let me wrap

with two key messages.

One is behavioral finance

is extremely powerful.

This is just one example.

Message two

is there's still a lot to do.

This is really the tip of the iceberg.

If you think about people and mortgages

and buying houses and then not being able to pay for it,

we need to think about that.

If you're thinking about people taking too much risk

and not understanding how much risk they're taking

or taking too little risk,

we need to think about that.

If you think about people spending a thousand dollars a year

on lottery tickets,

we need to think about that.

The average actually,

the record is in Singapore.

The average household

spends $4,000 a year on lottery tickets.

We've got a lot to do,

a lot to solve,

also in the retirement area

when it comes to what people do with their money

after retirement.

One last question:

How many of you feel comfortable

that as you're planning for retirement

you have a really solid plan

when you're going to retire,

when you're going to claim Social Security benefits,

what lifestyle to expect,

how much to spend every month

so you're not going to run out of money?

How many of you feel you have a solid plan for the future

when it comes to post-retirement decisions.

One, two, three, four.

Less than three percent

of a very sophisticated audience.

Behavioral finance has a long way.

There's a lot of opportunities

to make it powerful again and again and again.

Thank you.

(Applause)