The surprising decline in violence | Steven Pinker

Prevoditelj: Marko Fuček Recezent: Hrvoje Simic

Images like this, from the Auschwitz concentration camp,

Prizori poput ovog iz koncentracijskog logora Auschwitz,

have been seared into our consciousness during the 20th century

urezali su se u našu svijest tijekom 20. stoljeća

and have given us a new understanding of who we are,

i pružili su nam novo shvaćanje o tome tko smo,

where we've come from and the times we live in.

odakle dolazimo i o vremenu u kojemu živimo.

During the 20th century, we witnessed the atrocities

Tijekom 20. stoljeća svjedočili smo zločinima

of Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Pol Pot, Rwanda and other genocides,

Staljina, Hitlera, Maoa, Pol Pota, genocidu u Ruandi i drugdje,

and even though the 21st century is only seven years old,

a iako 21. stoljeće traje tek sedam godina

we have already witnessed an ongoing genocide in Darfur

već smo svjedočili genocidu u Darfuru, koji je u tijeku,

and the daily horrors of Iraq.

i svakodnevnim užasima Iraka.

This has led to a common understanding of our situation,

To je oblikovalo opće mišljenje o našoj situaciji,

namely, that modernity has brought us terrible violence,

kako je suvremeno doba donijelo užasnu razinu nasilja i kako su možda

and perhaps that native peoples lived in a state of harmony

primitivni ljudi živjeli u skladu kojeg smo mi,

that we have departed from, to our peril.

na svoju pogibelj, izgubili. Evo primjera:

Here is an example from an op-ed on Thanksgiving,

komentar povodom Dana zahvalnosti u Boston Globeu

in the "Boston Globe" a couple of years ago,

prije par godina, u kojem autor piše: "Život Indijanaca

where the writer wrote, "The Indian life was a difficult one,

bio je težak, ali nije bilo problema s nezaposlenošću,

but there were no employment problems,

community harmony was strong, substance abuse unknown,

društvo je bilo skladno, nije bilo ovisnosti,

crime nearly nonexistent.

kriminal gotovo da i nije postojao, a ako bi izbio rat među plemenima

What warfare there was between tribes was largely ritualistic

bio je uglavnom ritualan i rijetko je vodio neselektivnom

and seldom resulted in indiscriminate or wholesale slaughter."

ili masovnom pokolju." Svi ste upoznati s ovim romantičnim viđenjem.

Now you're all familiar with this treacle.

We teach it to our children.

Prenosimo ga djeci, čujemo na televiziji

We hear it on television and in storybooks.

i čitamo u pričama. Izvorni naslov ovoga predavanja

Now, the original title of this session was, "Everything You Know is Wrong,"

bio je "Sve što znate je pogrešno" i predstaviti ću dokaze

and I'm going to present evidence

that this particular part of our common understanding is wrong,

da je ovo konkretno opće uvjerenje pogrešno:

that, in fact, our ancestors were far more violent than we are,

da su naši preci zapravo bili daleko nasilniji od nas,

that violence has been in decline for long stretches of time,

da se razina nasilja kroz dugo vrijeme smanjivala

and that today, we are probably living in the most peaceful time

te da danas vjerojatno živimo u najmirnijem razdoblju

in our species's existence.

postojanja naše vrste. U desetljeću Darfura i Iraka

Now in the decade of Darfur and Iraq,

a statement like that might seem somewhere between hallucinatory and obscene,

takva se tvrdnja može činiti zaluđenom

ili čak opscenom. Ali pokušat ću vas uvjeriti

but I'm going to try to convince you that that is the correct picture.

kako je ispravna. Smanjivanje razine nasilja

The decline of violence is a fractal phenomenon.

fraktalni je fenomen. Možete ga pratiti kroz tisućljeća,

You can see it over millennia, over centuries, over decades

kroz stoljeća, kroz desetljeća i kroz godine,

and over years,

although there seems to have been a tipping point

iako je, izgleda, došlo do prekretnice početkom

at the onset of the Age of Reason in the 16th century.

Doba razuma u 16. stoljeću.

One sees it all over the world, although not homogeneously.

Primjetna je u cijelom svijetu, iako ne podjednako.

It's especially evident in the West,

Posebno je vidljiva na Zapadu, isprva u Engleskoj

beginning with England and Holland around the time of the Enlightenment.

i Nizozemskoj oko razdoblja Prosvjetiteljstva.

Let me take you on a journey of several powers of 10 --

Povesti ću vas na putovanje od nekoliko faktora 10 -

from the millennium scale to the year scale --

s tisućljetne razine na godišnju -

to try to persuade you of this.

kako bi vas pokušao uvjeriti u to. Do prije 10.000 godina, svi ljudi

Until 10,000 years ago, all humans lived as hunter-gatherers,

živjeli su kao lovci-skupljači, bez trajnih naseobina ili vlada.

without permanent settlements or government.

Ovo stanje općenito se smatra

And this is the state that's commonly thought to be one of primordial harmony.

društvom izvornog sklada. Međutim,

But the archaeologist Lawrence Keeley,

arheolog Lawrence Keely, istražujući učestalost smrti

looking at casualty rates among contemporary hunter-gatherers,

među suvremenim lovcima-skupljačima - što je naš najbolji izvor

which is our best source of evidence about this way of life,

činjenica o njihovom načinu života - došao je do drugačijeg zaključka.

has shown a rather different conclusion.

Here is a graph that he put together,

Na ovome grafu prikazao je

showing the percentage of male deaths due to warfare

postotak muškaraca umrlih kao posljedica ratovanja

in a number of foraging or hunting and gathering societies.

u više skupljačkih i lovačko-skupljačkih društava.

The red bars correspond to the likelihood that a man will die

Crvene crte odgovaraju vjerojatnosti da je čovjeka ubio

at the hands of another man,

drugi čovjek, nasuprot vjerojatnosti smrti

as opposed to passing away of natural causes,

od prirodnih uzroka, u raznim skupljačkim društvima

in a variety of foraging societies in the New Guinea highlands

na visoravnima Nove Gvineje i u prašumama Amazone.

and the Amazon rain forest.

And they range from a rate of almost a 60 percent chance that a man will die

Postoci su u rasponu od gotovo 60% vjerojatnosti smrti

at the hands of another man

kao posljedice ubojstva do, u slučaju Gebusija,

to, in the case of the Gebusi, only a 15 percent chance.

samo 15%. Mala plava crta u donjem lijevom kutu

The tiny little blue bar in the lower left-hand corner

označava odgovarajuću statistiku za SAD i Europu u 20. stoljeću

plots the corresponding statistic from the United States and Europe

in the 20th century,

i uključuje sve smrti u oba svjetska rata.

and it includes all the deaths of both World Wars.

Da se smrtnost plemenskog ratovanja održala i tijekom 20. stoljeća,

If the death rate in tribal warfare had prevailed during the 20th century,

poginule bi dvije milijarde ljudi, umjesto 100 milijuna.

there would have been two billion deaths rather than 100 million.

Also on the millennium scale,

Također, na razini tisućljeća možemo uočiti

we can look at the way of life of early civilizations,

način života ranih civilizacija, poput onih opisanih

such as the ones described in the Bible.

u Bibliji. U tom tobožnjem izvoru naših moralnih vrijednosti

And in this supposed source of our moral values,

one can read descriptions of what was expected in warfare,

može se pročitati što se očekivalo u ratu,

such as the following, from Numbers 31:

kao na primjer u Brojevima 31: "I pođoše u boj

"And they warred against the Midianites as the Lord commanded Moses,

proti Midjanaca, kako je bio Gospod zapovjedio Mojsiju,

and they slew all the males.

i pobiše sve muške osobe. Reče im Mojsije:

And Moses said unto them, 'Have you saved all the women alive?

"A što ostaviste na životu sve žene? Zato sada pobijte svu

Now, therefore, kill every male among the little ones

djecu mušku i sve žene udate.

and kill every woman that hath known man by lying with him,

A sve mlade djevojke, koje još nijesu udate,

but all the women children that have not known a man by lying with him,

ostavite za sebe na životu." Drugim riječima,

keep alive for yourselves.'"

In other words: kill the men, kill the children.

ubijete muškarce, ubijte djecu, a ako vidite djevice

If you see any virgins, then you can keep them alive so that you can rape them.

možete ih ostaviti na životu kako bi ih mogli silovati.

And you can find four or five passages in the Bible of this ilk.

Možete pronaći četiri ili pet ovakvih odlomaka u Bibliji.

Also in the Bible, one sees that the death penalty was the accepted punishment

Također, u Bibliji je smrtna kazna

prihvatljiva za zločine poput homoseksualnosti,

for crimes such as homosexuality,

adultery, blasphemy, idolatry, talking back to your parents --

preljuba, bogohulstva, idolatrije, drskog odgovaranja roditeljima -

(Laughter)

(smijeh) - i skupljanje granja na šabat

and picking up sticks on the Sabbath.

Well, let's click the zoom lens down one order of magnitude

Približimo se sada

za jedan red veličine i pogledajmo razinu stoljeća.

and look at the century scale.

Now, although we don't have statistics for warfare

Iako nemamo statistike ratovanja za razdoblje

throughout the Middle Ages to modern times,

od srednjeg vijeka do suvremenog doba,

we know just from conventional history

znamo iz konvencionalne povijesti -

that the evidence was under our nose all along

cijelo vrijeme su nam pod nosom bili dokazi da se smanjivala

that there has been a reduction in socially sanctioned forms of violence.

razina društveno prihvatljivog nasilja.

For example, any social history will reveal that mutilation and torture

Na primjer, društvena povijest nam kazuje kako su sakaćenje i mučenje

were routine forms of criminal punishment.

bili rutinski oblici kažnjavanja kriminalaca. Prekršaj zbog kojega

The kind of infraction today that would give you a fine,

bi danas dobili novčanu kaznu, u to doba bio bi kažnjen

in those days, would result in your tongue being cut out,

odsjecanjem jezika, ušiju ili osljepljivanjem,

your ears being cut off, you being blinded,

a hand being chopped off and so on.

odsijecanjem ruke i slično.

There were numerous ingenious forms of sadistic capital punishment:

Postojali su brojni domišljati oblici sadističkih smrtnih kazni:

burning at the stake, disemboweling, breaking on the wheel,

paljenje na lomači, vađenje utrobe, lomljenje na kotaču,

being pulled apart by horses and so on.

četvorenje i tako dalje.

The death penalty was a sanction for a long list of nonviolent crimes:

Smrt je bila kazna za čitav niz nenasilnih zločina:

criticizing the king, stealing a loaf of bread.

kritiziranje kralja, krađu kruha. Ropstvo je, naravno,

Slavery, of course, was the preferred labor-saving device,

bilo omiljen način uštede na radnoj snazi, a okrutnost je

and cruelty was a popular form of entertainment.

bila popularan oblik zabave. Možda je najzorniji primjer

Perhaps the most vivid example was the practice of cat burning,

praksa paljenja mačaka, kada bi mačku objesili

in which a cat was hoisted on a stage and lowered in a sling into a fire,

na pozornici i spustili u vatru,

and the spectators shrieked in laughter as the cat, howling in pain,

a publika bi vrištala od smijeha dok bi mačka, zavijajući od boli,

was burned to death.

bila spaljena na smrt.

What about one-on-one murder?

Što je s pojedinačnim ubojstvima? Za to postoje dobre statistike

Well, there, there are good statistics,

because many municipalities recorded the cause of death.

jer su mnoge općine bilježili uzroke smrti.

The criminologist Manuel Eisner

Kriminolog Manuel Eisner

scoured all of the historical records across Europe

pretražio je sve povijesne zapise diljem Europe,

for homicide rates in any village, hamlet, town, county that he could find,

tražeći stope ubojstva u svim selima, zaseocima, gradovima i okruzima

koje je mogao naći i nadopunio ih je

and then he supplemented them with national data

podacima na nacionalnoj razini od vremena kad su se počele voditi.

when nations started keeping statistics.

He plotted on a logarithmic scale,

Unio ih je na logaritamsku skalu, počevši sa 100 smrti

going from 100 deaths per 100,000 people per year,

na 100.000 ljudi na godinu, što je otprilike stopa

which was approximately the rate of homicide in the Middle Ages,

ubojstava u srednjem vijeku. Vrijednost se obrušila

and the figure plummets down

to less than one homicide per 100,000 people per year

na manje od jednog ubojstva na 100.000 ljudi godišnje

in seven or eight European countries.

u sedam ili osam europskih zemalja. Postoji manji porast

Then, there is a slight uptick in the 1960s.

tijekom 1960-ih. Tvrdnje kako će rock dovesti

The people who said that rock and roll would lead to the decline of moral values

do pada moralnih vrijednosti zapravo su imale zrno istine u sebi.

actually had a grain of truth to that.

But there was a decline from at least two orders of magnitude in homicide

No, došlo je do pada stope ubojstava od barem

from the Middle Ages to the present,

dva reda veličine od srednjeg vijeka do sadašnjosti,

and the elbow occurred in the early 16th century.

a do prijeloma je došlo početkom 16. stoljeća.

Let's click down now to the decade scale.

Spustimo se na razinu desetljeća.

According to nongovernmental organizations that keep such statistics,

Prema nevladinim organizacijama

koje su vodile takve statistike, od 1945. u Europi i Amerikama

since 1945, in Europe and the Americas,

there has been a steep decline in interstate wars,

došlo je do naglog smanjenja broja međudržavnih ratova,

in deadly ethnic riots or pogroms

smrtonosnih etničkih nereda ili pogroma i vojnih udara,

and in military coups, even in South America.

čak i u Južnoj Americi. U cijelom svijetu, naglo je smanjen broj

Worldwide, there's been a steep decline in deaths in interstate wars.

smrti u međudržavnim ratovima. Žuti stupci pokazuju broj

The yellow bars here show the number of deaths per war per year

smrti po ratu po godini od 1950. do danas.

from 1950 to the present.

And, as you can see, the death rate goes down

Kao što možete vidjeti, stopa smrtnosti pala je sa 65.000 smrti

from 65,000 deaths per conflict per year in the 1950s

po sukobu po godini 1950. na manje od 2.000 smrti

to less than 2,000 deaths per conflict per year in this decade,

po sukobu po godini u ovome desetljeću, iako je i to tragično.

as horrific as it is.

Even in the year scale, one can see a decline of violence.

Čak je i na razini godina primjetan pad razine nasilja.

Since the end of the Cold War, there have been fewer civil wars,

Od kraja Hladnoga rata manje je građanskih ratova,

fewer genocides -- indeed, a 90 percent reduction since post-World War II highs --

manje genocida - pad od 90% od vrhunca u godinama nakon Drugoga svjetskog rata,

and even a reversal of the 1960s uptick in homicide and violent crime.

a čak je i preokrenut porast stope ubojstava i nasilnih zločina iz 1960-ih.

This is from the FBI uniform crime statistics.

Ovo je prema unificiranim statistikama kriminala FBI-a: kao što vidite

You can see that there's a fairly low rate of violence in the '50s and the '60s,

razina nasilja prilično je niska 50-ih i 60-ih,

then it soared upward for several decades

zatim je porasla kroz nekoliko desetljeća i počela

and began a precipitous decline, starting in the 1990s,

strmo padati, počevši od '90-ih te se vratila

so that it went back to the level that was last enjoyed in 1960.

gotovo na razinu iz 1960.

President Clinton, if you're here: thank you.

Predsjedniče Clinton, ako ste ovdje, hvala vam.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

So the question is:

Dakle pitanje je: zašto je toliko ljudi u krivu

Why are so many people so wrong about something so important?

u nečemu tako važnome? Smatram kako postoji niz razloga.

I think there are a number of reasons.

One of them is we have better reporting.

Jedan je taj što imamo bolja izviješća: "Associated Press

The Associated Press is a better chronicler of wars

bolji je kroničar ratova na Zemlji

over the surface of the earth

than 16th-century monks were.

no što su to bili redovnici iz 16. stoljeća."

(Laughter)

There's a cognitive illusion.

We cognitive psychologists know

Postoji spoznajna iluzija: mi kognitivni psiholozi znamo da

that the easier it is to recall specific instances of something,

što se je lakše prisjetiti konkretnih primjera nečega,

the higher the probability that you assign to it.

tome pripisujemo veću vjerojatnost.

Things that we read about in the paper with gory footage

Svari koje pročitamo u novinama sa krvavim snimkama

burn into memory more than reports of a lot more people dying

zapeku nam se u sjećanje snažnije nego izvješća o smrti

in their beds of old age.

daleko većeg broja ljudi od starosti.

There are dynamics in the opinion and advocacy markets;

Tržišta zagovaranja su dinamična: nitko ne privlači promatrače,

no one ever attracted advocates and donors

zagovornike i donatore govoreći

by saying, "Things just seem to be getting better and better."

"čini se da se situacija stalno poboljšava."

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

There's guilt about our treatment of native peoples

Prisutan je osjećaj krivnje u modernom intelektualnom

in modern intellectual life,

životu zbog našeg tretmana domorodaca i nespremnosti na priznanje

and an unwillingness to acknowledge there could be anything good

kako bi moglo biti nečega dobrog u zapadnjačkoj kulturi.

about Western culture.

And, of course, our change in standards can outpace the change in behavior.

I naravno, promjene naših standarda mogu preteči promjene

One of the reasons violence went down

u ponašanju. Jedan od razloga zašto se razina nasilja smanjila

is that people got sick of the carnage and cruelty in their time.

je taj što je ljudima bilo dosta pokolja i okrutnosti u njihovo doba.

That's a process that seems to be continuing,

Taj se proces, izgleda, nastavlja,

but if it outstrips behavior by the standards of the day,

ali ako pretiće ponašanje u odnosu na suvremene standarde,

things always look more barbaric than they would have been

stvari uvijek izgledaju barbarskije nego što bi bile

by historic standards.

po povijesnim mjerilima. Stoga se danas uznemirujemo - i to s pravom -

So today, we get exercised -- and rightly so --

if a handful of murderers get executed by lethal injection in Texas

ako se nekoliko ubojica pogubi smrtonosnom injekcijom

u Teksasu nakon 15-ogodišnjeg žalbenog postupka. Ne uzimamo u obzir

after a 15-year appeal process.

We don't consider that a couple of hundred years ago,

činjenicu da bi prije nekoliko stoljeća možda bili spaljeni

they may have been burned at the stake for criticizing the king after a trial

na lomači zbog kritiziranja kralja nakon suđenja

that lasted 10 minutes,

koje bi trajalo 10 minuta - i da bi se to uvijek iznova

and indeed, that that would have been repeated over and over again.

ponavljalo. Danas smrtnu kaznu smatramo

Today, we look at capital punishment

as evidence of how low our behavior can sink,

dokazom niske razine na koju se naše ponašanje može spustiti,

rather than how high our standards have risen.

umjesto dokaza kako su se naši standardi povisili.

Well, why has violence declined?

Dakle, zašto se razina nasilja smanjila? Nitko zapravo ne zna,

No one really knows, but I have read four explanations,

ali pročitao sam četiri objašnjenja, i mislim da je svako od njih

all of which, I think, have some grain of plausibility.

donekle uvjerljivo. Prvo od njih je:

The first is: maybe Thomas Hobbes got it right.

možda je Thomas Hobbes bio u pravu. On je rekao da je

He was the one who said

that life in a state of nature was "solitary, poor, nasty,

život u prirodnom stanju bio "usamljenički, siromašan, gadan, nasilan

brutish and short."

i kratak." Ne zato, tvrdio je, što su

(Laughter)

Not because, he argued,

humans have some primordial thirst for blood

ljudi po prirodi krvožedni,

or aggressive instinct or territorial imperative,

ili zbog agresivnog instinkta ili teritorijalnih pitanja,

but because of the logic of anarchy.

nego zbog logike anarhije. U stanju anarhije

In a state of anarchy,

there's a constant temptation to invade your neighbors preemptively,

postoji stalno iskušenje preventivnog napada na susjeda,

before they invade you.

prije no što on napadne tebe. Kasnije je Thomas Schelling

More recently, Thomas Schelling gives the analogy

iznio analogiju s kućevlasnikom koji čuje buku

of a homeowner who hears a rustling in the basement.

Being a good American, he has a pistol in the nightstand,

u podrumu. Kao dobar Amerikanac, ima pištolj

uz krevet, uzima ga i spušta se niz stube.

pulls out his gun, walks down the stairs.

And what does he see but a burglar with a gun in his hand?

Tamo vidi provalnika koji također drži pištolj.

Now, each one of them is thinking,

I jedan i drugi misle,

"I don't really want to kill that guy, but he's about to kill me.

"Zapravo ne želim ubiti tog tipa, no on se sprema ubiti mene.

Maybe I had better shoot him before he shoots me,

Možda je bolje da ga upucam prije nego on mene,

especially since, even if he doesn't want to kill me,

pogotovo zato što, čak i ako me ne namjerava ubiti,

he's probably worrying right now that I might kill him before he kills me."

vjerojatno također brine da bi ja mogao ubiti njega

prije nego što on ubije mene." - i tako dalje.

And so on.

Hunter-gatherer peoples explicitly go through this train of thought

Lovačko-skupljačka plemena eksplicitno prolaze kroz takav tok misli

and will often raid their neighbors out of fear of being raided first.

i često će napasti susjede iz straha da ne bi sami bili napadnuti.

Now, one way of dealing with this problem is by deterrence.

Jedan od načina rješavanja ovog problema je odvraćanje:

You don't strike first, but you have a publicly announced policy

ne napadate prvi, ali javno obznanite politiku

that you will retaliate savagely if you are invaded.

kako ćete se divljački osvetiti ako netko napadne vas.

The only thing is that it's liable to having its bluff called,

Jedini problem s takvom politikom

je njena ranjivost na prozivanje blefa, i može funkcionirati jedino

and therefore can only work if it's credible.

ako je uvjerljiva. Da bi bila uvjerljiva morate osvetiti sve uvrede

To make it credible, you must avenge all insults and settle all scores,

i podmiriti sve račune, što dovodi do ciklusa krvnih osveta.

which leads to the cycles of bloody vendetta.

Life becomes an episode of "The Sopranos."

Život postaje epizoda Sopranosa. Hobbesovo riješenje,

Hobbes's solution, "Leviathan,"

"Levijatan," počiva na povjeravanju ovlasti za legitimnu uporabu

was that if authority for the legitimate use of violence

sile jednom demokratskom organu - levijatanu -

was vested in a single democratic agency -- a leviathan --

then such a state can reduce the temptation of attack,

tada takvo stanje umanjuje iskušenje za napad,

because any kind of aggression will be punished,

jer bi svaka agresija bila kažnjena,

leaving its profitability zero.

što bi poništilo njenu isplativost. To bi uklonilo i iskušenje

That would remove the temptation to invade preemptively

preventivnog napada zbog straha da ćete biti napadnuti.

out of fear of them attacking you first.

It removes the need for a hair trigger for retaliation

Također, uklanja potrebu za brzim osvetama

to make your deterrent threat credible,

kojima se prijetnja odmazde čini uvjerljivom. Stoga bi to dovelo

and therefore, it would lead to a state of peace.

do stanja mira. Eisner - čovjek koji je zabilježio stope ubojstava koje

Eisner -- the man who plotted the homicide rates

that you failed to see in the earlier slide --

niste mogli vidjeti na ranijoj slici -

argued that the timing of the decline of homicide in Europe

tvrdio je kako je pad stope ubojstava u Europi

coincided with the rise of centralized states.

istovremen sa usponom centralizirane države.

So that's a bit of a support for the leviathan theory.

To donekle podržava teoriju levijatana.

Also supporting it is the fact that we today see eruptions of violence

Također, podržava je i činjenica što danas svjedočimo erupciji nasilja

in zones of anarchy, in failed states, collapsed empires,

u anarhičnim zonama: neuspjelim državama, palim carstvima,

frontier regions, mafias, street gangs and so on.

graničnim regijama, mafijama, uličnim bandama itd.

The second explanation is that in many times and places,

Drugo objašnjenje je da u mnogim dobima i mjestima

there is a widespread sentiment that life is cheap.

postoji rašireni osjećaj da je život jeftin.

In earlier times, when suffering and early death were common in one's own life,

U prijašnjim vremenima, kada je patnja i preuranjena smrt bila uobičajna

u životu pojedinca, bilo je manje grižnje savjesti oko nanošenja istih

one has fewer compunctions about inflicting them on others.

drugima. Kako tehnologija i gospodarska učinkovitost čine život

And as technology and economic efficiency make life longer and more pleasant,

dužim i ugodnijim, pojedinac više vrednuje život.

one puts a higher value on life in general.

This was an argument from the political scientist James Payne.

To je bio argument politologa Jamesa Paynea.

A third explanation invokes the concept of a nonzero-sum game,

Treće objašnjenje poziva se na koncept "igre nenultog zbroja,"

and was worked out in the book "Nonzero" by the journalist Robert Wright.

i razrađeno je u knjizi "Nonzero" novinara

Roberta Wrighta. Wright ističe da u određenim okolnostima

Wright points out that, in certain circumstances,

cooperation or nonviolence can benefit both parties in an interaction,

suradnja, uključujući nenasilje, može koristiti objema stranama

u interakciji, npr. u trgovini kada dvije strane razmjenjuju

such as gains in trade when two parties trade their surpluses

svoje viškove obje zarađuju, ili kada dvije strane

and both come out ahead,

or when two parties lay down their arms

polože oružje i podijele tzv. dividendu mira,

and split the so-called peace dividend

that results in them not having to fight the whole time.

rezultat toga što se ne moraju stalno boriti.

Wright argues that technology has increased the number

Wright tvrdi da je tehnologija povećala broj

of positive-sum games that humans tend to be embroiled in,

igara pozitivnog zbroja u koje se ljudi uključuju

by allowing the trade of goods, services and ideas

omogućavajući trgovinu dobrima, uslugama i idejama

over longer distances and among larger groups of people.

preko većih udaljenosti i između većih grupa ljudi.

The result is that other people become more valuable alive than dead,

Kao rezultat toga, drugi ljudi postaju vredniji živi nego mrtvi,

and violence declines for selfish reasons.

a razina nasilja opada zbog sebičnih razloga. Kako se Wright izrazio,

As Wright put it,

"Among the many reasons that I think that we should not bomb the Japanese

"Među brojnim razlozima zašto smatram da ne bi trebali bombardirati

Japance je i taj što su napravili moj karavan."

is that they built my minivan."

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

The fourth explanation is captured in the title of a book

Četvrto objašnjenje izraženo je u naslovu knjige

called "The Expanding Circle," by the philosopher Peter Singer,

"Šireći krugovi" filozofa Petera Singera,

who argues that evolution bequeathed humans with a sense of empathy,

koji tvrdi da je evolucija podala ljudima osjećaj

empatije: sposobnost odnošenja prema tuđim interesima

an ability to treat other people's interests as comparable to one's own.

usporedivo kao s vlastitima. Nažalost, obično ga

Unfortunately, by default,

we apply it only to a very narrow circle of friends and family.

primjenjujemo samo na vrlo uski krug prijatelja i obitelji.

People outside that circle are treated as subhuman

Ljude izvan tog kruga tretiramo kao podljude,

and can be exploited with impunity.

koji se mogu iskorištavati bez posljedica. Ali tijekom povijesti,

But, over history, the circle has expanded.

krug se širio. U povijesnim zapisima je vidljivo

One can see, in historical record,

it expanding from the village, to the clan, to the tribe, to the nation,

njegovo širenje od sela na klan, pa na pleme,

to other races, to both sexes and, in Singer's own arguments,

na naciju, na druge rase, na oba spola,

a prema Singeru trebali bi ga proširiti i na

something that we should extend to other sentient species.

druge svjesne vrste. Pitanje je,

So the question is:

If this has happened, what has powered that expansion?

ako je do toga došlo, što je potaklo to širenje?

And there are a number of possibilities,

Postoji niz mogućnosti. Proširenje krugova

such as increasing circles of reciprocity

reciprociteta u smislu koji zagovara Robert Wright.

in the sense that Robert Wright argues for.

The logic of the Golden Rule --

Logika zlatnog pravila: što više razmišljate o drugim ljudima

the more you think about and interact with other people,

i dolazite u susret s njima, to više shvaćate da je neodrživo

the more you realize that it is untenable to privilege your interests over theirs,

davati prednost vlastitim interesima nad njihovima,

at least not if you want them to listen to you.

barem ako želite da vas slušaju. Ne možete reći

You can't say that my interests are special compared to yours

kako su moji interesi posebni u usporedbi s tvojim

any more than you can say

kao što ne možete reći ni da je određeno mjesto

the particular spot that I'm standing on is a unique part of the universe

na kojem stojite jedinstveno u svemiru

because I happen to be standing on it that very minute.

jer se slučajno nalazite na njemu u tom trenutku.

It may also be powered by cosmopolitanism, by histories

Širenje je mogao potaći i kozmopolitizam: putem historiografija,

and journalism and memoirs and realistic fiction and travel and literacy,

novinarstva, memoara, realističke beletristike, putovanja

i literaturu, koji su vam omogućili da projicirate sebe na živote

which allows you to project yourself into the lives of other people

drugih koje ste možda prije smatrali podljudima,

that formerly you may have treated as subhuman,

and also to realize the accidental contingency of your own station in life,

te da shvatite slučajnost svoje životne situacije,

osjećaj "da nisam bio ovakve sreće, to sam mogao biti ja."

the sense that "There but for fortune go I."

Whatever its causes,

Koji god bili uzroci, pad razine nasilja

the decline of violence, I think, has profound implications.

ima značajne posljedice. Trebali bi se zapitati ne samo "Zašto

It should force us to ask not just, "Why is there war?"

postoji rat?" nego i "Zašto postoji mir?" Ne samo

but also, "Why is there peace?"

Not just, "What are we doing wrong?"

"Što činimo krivo?" nego i "Što smo činili ispravno?"

but also, "What have we been doing right?"

Because we have been doing something right,

Jer nešto jesmo činili ispravno,

and it sure would be good to find out what it is.

i svakako bi bilo dobro znati što.

Thank you very much.

Puno vam hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

Chris Anderson: I loved that talk.

Chris Anderson: Uživao sam u izlaganju. Smatram da bi mnogi ovdje rekli

I think a lot of people here in the room would say

that that expansion you were talking about,

da je proširenje o kojemu ste govorili,

that Peter Singer talks about,

o kojemu govori i Singer, također poticano samom tehnologijom,

is also driven just by technology, by greater visibility of the other

većom vidljivosti drugih i osjećajem da svijet

and the sense that the world is therefore getting smaller.

postaje manji. Mislim, ima li nešto i u tome?

I mean, is that also a grain of truth?

Steven Pinker: Very much.

Steven Pinker: Svakako. To bi se uklopilo u Wrightovu teoriju,

It would fit both in Wright's theory,

that it allows us to enjoy the benefits of cooperation

jer nam omogućuje uživati dobrobiti surađivanja

over larger and larger circles.

u sve većim i većim krugovima. Ali mislim i da nam pomaže

But also, I think it helps us imagine what it's like to be someone else.

zamisliti kako je biti netko drugi. Mislim da kada čitate

I think when you read of these horrific tortures

o stravičnim mučenjima koja su bila uobičajena u srednjem vijeku mislite,

that were common in the Middle Ages,

you think, "How could they possibly have done it,

kako li su to uopće mogli činiti,

how could they not have empathized with the person

kako nisu osjećali empatiju prema osobi

that they're disemboweling?"

kojoj su vadili utrobu? Ali očito,

But clearly, as far as they're concerned, this is just an alien being

što se njih ticalo, to je tek jedno strano biće

that does not have feelings akin to their own.

koje nema osjećaje poput njihovih. Smatram da sve

Anything, I think, that makes it easier

što olakšava zamisliti zamjenu mjesta

to imagine trading places with someone else

means that it increases your moral consideration

s nekim drugim istovremeno povećava obzirnost

to that other person.

prema toj drugoj osobi.

CA: I'd love every news media owner to hear that talk

CA: Pa Steve, volio bih da svi vlasnici medija čuju ovo izlaganje

at some point, it's so important.

tijekom sljedeće godine. Mislim da je stvarno bitno. Puno vam hvala.

CA: Thank you. SP: My pleasure.

SP: Bilo mi je zadovoljstvo.