Keith Chen: Could your language affect your ability to save money?

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

Translator: Nagore Salaberria Reviewer: Jone Aliri Lazcano

The global economic financial crisis has reignited public interest

Ekonomia krisi globalak publikoaren interesa berpiztu du

in something that's actually one of the oldest questions in economics,

ekonomi zientzian zaharrenetarikoa den mintzagai batengan,

dating back to at least before Adam Smith.

gutxienez Adam Smithen aurretikoa dena.

And that is, why is it that countries with seemingly similar economies and institutions

Zergatik dituzte, itxuraz antzeko ekonomia eta erakundeak dituzten herrialdeek

can display radically different savings behavior?

aurrezteko portaera hain desberdinak?

Now, many brilliant economists have spent their entire lives working on this question,

Ekonomista bikain askok bizi osoa eman dute honi erantzun nahian,

and as a field we've made a tremendous amount of headway

eta guztien artean asko aurreratzea lortu dugu

and we understand a lot about this.

eta asko ulertzera iritsi gara.

What I'm here to talk with you about today is an intriguing new hypothesis

Gaur azaldu nahi dudana hipotesi berri zirraragarri bat da

and some surprisingly powerful new findings that I've been working on

baita zenbait aurkikuntza harrigarri eta garrantzitsu ere, esaterako

about the link between the structure of the language you speak

hitz egiten dugun hizkuntzaren egiturak zer nolako lotura duen

and how you find yourself with the propensity to save.

bakoitzak aurrezteko duen jokabidearekin.

Let me tell you a little bit about savings rates, a little bit about language,

Laburrean aurrezte-tasei buruz eta hizkuntzari buruz hitz egin,

and then I'll draw that connection.

eta ondoren, lotura azalduko dizuet.

Let's start by thinking about the member countries of the OECD,

Has gaitezen ELGA-ko kide diren herrialdeekin,

or the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.

Ekonomia Lankidetza eta Garapenerako Antolakundea.

OECD countries, by and large, you should think about these

ELGA-ko herrialdeak, orokorrean, munduko

as the richest, most industrialized countries in the world.

aberatsenak eta industrializatuenak dira.

And by joining the OECD, they were affirming a common commitment

Eta ELGAra batzean, konpromezua hartzen dute

to democracy, open markets and free trade.

demokraziaren, merkatu irekien eta merkataritza askearen alde.

Despite all of these similarities, we see huge differences in savings behavior.

Antzekotasun horiek izan arren, aurrezteko portaeretan alde handiak daude.

So all the way over on the left of this graph,

Hala, grafiko honen ezkerreko aldean,

what you see is many OECD countries saving over a quarter of their GDP every year,

urtean BPG-aren laurdena baino gehiago aurrezten duten ELGA herrialdeak daude,

and some OECD countries saving over a third of their GDP per year.

eta urtean BPG-aren herena baino gehiago aurrezten duten zenbait.

Holding down the right flank of the OECD, all the way on the other side, is Greece.

ELGAren eskuin muturrean berriz, grafikoaren beste aldean, Grezia dago.

And what you can see is that over the last 25 years,

Agerian geratzen da azken 25 urteetan

Greziak ia ez duela lortu bere BPG-aren ehuneko 10 baino gehiago aurreztea.

Greece has barely managed to save more than 10 percent of their GDP.

It should be noted, of course, that the United States and the U.K. are the next in line.

Nabarmendu behar dugu, bestalde, AEB eta EB ondoan dituela.

Now that we see these huge differences in savings rates,

Aurrezte-tasetan halako alde handiak ikusi ondoren,

how is it possible that language might have something to do with these differences?

nola izan daiteke hizkuntzak alde horiengan eraginik izatea?

Let me tell you a little bit about how languages fundamentally differ.

Utzidazue azaltzen hizkuntzek zer desberdintasun dituzten.

Linguists and cognitive scientists have been exploring this question for many years now.

Linguistek eta kognizio zientzilariek urte askotan ikertu dute gai hau.

And then I'll draw the connection between these two behaviors.

Gero, bi portaera horien arteko lotura azalduko dizuet.

Many of you have probably already noticed that I'm Chinese.

Zuetako asko ohartuko zineten txinatarra naizela.

I grew up in the Midwest of the United States.

AEBen erdi-mendebaldean hazi nintzen.

And something I realized quite early on

Eta nahiko goiz ohartu nintzen

was that the Chinese language forced me to speak about and --

txinatar hizkuntzak oso modu desberdinean hitz egitera --

in fact, more fundamentally than that --

eta hori baino garrantzitsuago --

ever so slightly forced me to think about family in very different ways.

familiari buruz modu desberdinean pentsatzera behartu ninduela.

Now, how might that be? Let me give you an example.

Nola izan daiteke hori? Hona adibide bat.

Suppose I were talking with you and I was introducing you to my uncle.

Demagun zuekin hitz egiten ari naizela, eta nire osaba aurkeztu nahi dizuedala.

You understood exactly what I just said in English.

Ingelesez esan dudana ongi ulertu duzue.

If we were speaking Mandarin Chinese with each other, though,

Txinatar Mandarina hitz egiten ariko bagina, ordea,

I wouldn't have that luxury.

ez litzateke hain erraza izango.

I wouldn't have been able to convey so little information.

Ezin izango nuke hain informazio gutxi eman.

What my language would have forced me to do,

Nire hizkuntzak behartu egingo ninduen

instead of just telling you, "This is my uncle,"

"Hau nire osaba da" esan ordez

is to tell you a tremendous amount of additional information.

beste informazio gehigarri andana ematera.

My language would force me to tell you

Nire hizkuntzak behartuko ninduen

whether or not this was an uncle on my mother's side or my father's side,

nire amaren aldeko edo aitaren aldeko osaba den,

whether this was an uncle by marriage or by birth,

ezkontzazko edo jaiotzezko osaba den,

and if this man was my father's brother,

eta nire aitaren anaia bada,

whether he was older than or younger than my father.

nire aita baino zaharragoa edo gazteagoa den esatera.

All of this information is obligatory. Chinese doesn't let me ignore it.

Informazio guzti hori beharrezkoa da. Txinatar hizkuntzan ezin da ez esan.

And in fact, if I want to speak correctly,

Eta, hain zuzen, ongi hitz egin nahiko banu,

Chinese forces me to constantly think about it.

Txinatar hizkuntzak etengabe hori kontuan hartzera behartzen nau.

Now, that fascinated me endlessly as a child,

Hori liluragarria iruditzen zitzaidan haurtzaroan

but what fascinates me even more today as an economist

baina orain ekonomista gisa are eta gehiago liluratzen nauena

is that some of these same differences carry through to how languages speak about time.

desberdintasunetako batzuk denborari buruz hitz egitean ere ematen direla da.

So for example, if I'm speaking in English, I have to speak grammatically differently

Adibidez, ingelesez ari banaiz, gramatika desberdina erabili behar dut

if I'm talking about past rain, "It rained yesterday,"

iraganeko euriari buruz, "Atzo euria egin zuen,"

current rain, "It is raining now,"

egungo euriari buruz, "orain euria ari du,"

or future rain, "It will rain tomorrow."

edo etorkizunari buruz, "Bihar euria egingo du" jarduteko.

Notice that English requires a lot more information with respect to the timing of events.

Ingelesak informazio asko behar du denborari buruzko informazioa emateko.

Why? Because I have to consider that

Zergatik? Denbora kontuan izan behar dudalako

and I have to modify what I'm saying to say, "It will rain," or "It's going to rain."

eta esaten dudana aldatu behar dudalako, "euria egingo du," edo "euria ari du."

It's simply not permissible in English to say, "It rain tomorrow."

Ezinezkoa da ingelesez, besterik gabe, "Bihar euria ari" esatea.

In contrast to that, that's almost exactly what you would say in Chinese.

Bestalde, ia horixe egiten dugu txinatarrez.

A Chinese speaker can basically say something

Txinatarrez hitz egiten duen batek esan dezake

that sounds very strange to an English speaker's ears.

ingelesez egiten duenarentzat oso arraroa litzatekeena.

They can say, "Yesterday it rain," "Now it rain," "Tomorrow it rain."

Esan dezake "Atzo euria ari," "Gaur euria ari," "Bihar euria ari."

In some deep sense, Chinese doesn't divide up the time spectrum

Funtsean, txinatarrak ez du denbora zatitzen

in the same way that English forces us to constantly do in order to speak correctly.

ingelesez zuzen hitz egin nahi badugu eten gabe egiten dugun modu berean.

Is this difference in languages

Hizkuntzen arteko alde hori

only between very, very distantly related languages, like English and Chinese?

oso urrun dauen hizkuntzen artean soilik ematen al da?

Actually, no.

Ez.

So many of you know, in this room, that English is a Germanic language.

Zuetako hainbatek jakingo duzue ingelesa hizkuntza germanikoa dela.

What you may not have realized is that English is actually an outlier.

Baina agian ez dakizue ingelesea salbuespen bat dela.

It is the only Germanic language that requires this.

Hori egitera behartzen gaituen hizkuntza germaniko bakarra da.

For example, most other Germanic language speakers

Adibidez, hizkuntza germanikoen hiztun gehienak

feel completely comfortable talking about rain tomorrow

eroso sentitzen dira biharko euriari buruz hitz egiteko

by saying, "Morgen regnet es,"

"Morgen regnet es," esanda.

quite literally to an English ear, "It rain tomorrow."

Ingeles batentzat, literalki, "Atzo euria ari."

This led me, as a behavioral economist, to an intriguing hypothesis.

Honek portaeraren ekonomia ikerlari legez, hipotesi harrigarri batera eraman ninduen.

Could how you speak about time, could how your language forces you to think about time,

Denborari buruz hitz egiteko eta pentsatzeko dugun moduak

affect your propensity to behave across time?

izan ote dezake eraginik denboran zehar dugun portaeran?

You speak English, a futured language.

Zuek ingelesez hitz egiten duzue, etorkizuna duen hizkuntza.

And what that means is that every time you discuss the future,

Horrek esan nahi du, etorkizunari buruz ari zaretenean,

or any kind of a future event,

edo etorkizuneko gauzak aipatzean,

grammatically you're forced to cleave that from the present

gramatikoki orainetik bereiztera behartuta zaudetela,

and treat it as if it's something viscerally different.

guztiz bestelako zerbait balitz bezala tratatzera.

Now suppose that that visceral difference

Demagun funtsezko desberdintasun horrek

makes you subtly dissociate the future from the present every time you speak.

hitz egiten duzun bakoitzean etorkizuna orainetik bereiztera behartzen zaituela.

If that's true and it makes the future feel

Hori egia bada, eta, etorkizuna

like something more distant and more different from the present,

orainetik hurrun dagoela eta desberdina dela sentiarazten badizu,

that's going to make it harder to save.

zailagoa izango da zuretzat aurreztea.

If, on the other hand, you speak a futureless language,

Etorkizunik gabeko hizkuntzan hitz egiten baduzu,

the present and the future, you speak about them identically.

berdin hitz egingo duzu orainaz eta etorkizunaz.

If that subtly nudges you to feel about them identically,

Eta horrek biak berdin bezala sentzitzera eramaten bazaitu,

that's going to make it easier to save.

errazagoa izango da zuretzat aurreztea.

Now this is a fanciful theory.

Hau alegiazko teoria bat da.

I'm a professor, I get paid to have fanciful theories.

Irakaslea naiz, alegiazko teoriak izateko ordaintzen naute.

But how would you actually go about testing such a theory?

Baina nola frogatu genezake halako teoria bat?

Well, what I did with that was to access the linguistics literature.

Horretarako, linguistikako liburuetara jo nuen.

And interestingly enough, there are pockets of futureless language speakers

Eta interesgarria da badirela etorkizunik gabeko zenbait hizkuntza,

situated all over the world.

munduan zehar sakabanatuak.

This is a pocket of futureless language speakers in Northern Europe.

Hau Europa iparraldeko etorkizunik gabeko hizkuntza multzo bat da.

Interestingly enough, when you start to crank the data,

Interesgarria da, datuak jorratzen hastean,

these pockets of futureless language speakers all around the world

munduan zehar sakabanatuta dauden etorkizunik gabeko hizkuntza horiek

turn out to be, by and large, some of the world's best savers.

munduko aurrezle onenak direla.

Just to give you a hint of that,

Horren adibidetxo bat emateko,

let's look back at that OECD graph that we were talking about.

ikus dezagun berriro ELGA herrialdeen grafikoa.

What you see is that these bars are systematically taller

Ikus dezakezue barra hauek altuagoak direla

and systematically shifted to the left

eta ezkerrera mugituak daudela,

compared to these bars which are the members of the OECD that speak futured languages.

ELGAko etorkizuna duten hizkuntzak dituzten herrialdeen barrekin alderatuta.

What is the average difference here?

Zein da batez besteko aldea?

Five percentage points of your GDP saved per year.

BPG-aren ehuneko bost puntuko aurrezpena urtean.

Over 25 years that has huge long-run effects on the wealth of your nation.

25 urtean, horrek sekulako eragina du herrialdeen aberastasunean.

Now while these findings are suggestive,

Aurkikuntza hauek adierazgarriak diren arren,

countries can be different in so many different ways

herrialdeek desberdintzen dituzten ezaugarri asko izan ditzakete

that it's very, very difficult sometimes to account for all of these possible differences.

zaila dela batzuetan desberdintasun horiek guztiak kontuan hartzea.

What I'm going to show you, though, is something that I've been engaging in for a year,

Dena den, erakutsiko dizuedana, azken urtean landu dudan zerbait da.

which is trying to gather all of the largest datasets

Ekonomistok eskura ditugun datu

that we have access to as economists,

multzo handienak bildu eta

and I'm going to try and strip away all of those possible differences,

desberdintasun posible guztiak garbitzen saiatuko naiz

hoping to get this relationship to break.

erlazio hau hausteko asmoz.

And just in summary, no matter how far I push this, I can't get it to break.

Eta, laburbilduz, gogor saiatu arren ez dut haustea lortu.

Let me show you how far you can do that.

Ikus dezagun noraino eraman daitekeen.

One way to imagine that is I gather large datasets from around the world.

Irudikatzeko modu bat hau da: Munduko datu multzoak bildu ditut.

So for example, there is the Survey of Health, [Aging] and Retirement in Europe.

Adibidez, Osasunaren, [Zahartzaroari] eta Erretiroaren Europako galdeketa.

From this dataset you actually learn that retired European families

Datu multzo horretatik ikus dezakegu Europako familia erretiratuak

are extremely patient with survey takers.

aparteko pazientzia dutela galdeketa egiten dietenekin.

(Laughter)

(Barreak)

So imagine that you're a retired household in Belgium and someone comes to your front door.

Demagun Belgikar erretirodun bat zarela, eta norbait zure etxeko atera datorrela.

"Excuse me, would you mind if I peruse your stock portfolio?

"Barkatu, utziko al zenidake zure akzioen zerrenda ikusten?

Do you happen to know how much your house is worth? Do you mind telling me?

Ba al dakizu zenbat balio duen zure etxeak? Esango al zenidake?

Would you happen to have a hallway that's more than 10 meters long?

Zure etxeko korridoreak 10 metro baino gehiagoko luzera al du?

If you do, would you mind if I timed how long it took you to walk down that hallway?

Hala bada, neur dezaket zenbat denbora behar duzun korridorea zeharkatzen?

Would you mind squeezing as hard as you can, in your dominant hand, this device

Estutuko zenuke gailu hau, ahalik eta indar gehienez, zure esku nagusiarekin

so I can measure your grip strength?

zure indarra neur dezadan?

How about blowing into this tube so I can measure your lung capacity?"

Eta egingo zenuke putz tutu honetan zure birika gaitasuna neurtzeko?"

The survey takes over a day.

Galdeketak egun bat baino gehiago irauten du.

(Laughter)

(Barreak)

Combine that with a Demographic and Health Survey

Hori USAIDek Afrikako garapen bidean diren herrialdeetan

collected by USAID in developing countries in Africa, for example,

egindako Demografia eta Osasun inkesta batekin elkartu, adibidez,

which that survey actually can go so far as to directly measure the HIV status

besteak beste, HIVren egoera neurtzen duena

of families living in, for example, rural Nigeria.

Nigeriako landa eremuetako familien artean.

Combine that with a world value survey,

Hori, elkartu munduko baloreen inkestari,

which measures the political opinions and, fortunately for me, the savings behaviors

iritzi politikoa, eta nire zorionerako, aurrezteko portaera neurtzen dituena,

of millions of families in hundreds of countries around the world.

mundu osoko ehundaka herrialdetako milioika familiri egina.

Take all of that data, combine it, and this map is what you get.

Hartu datu horiek guztiak, eta mapa hau lortzen dugu.

What you find is nine countries around the world

Aurkitu duguna munduko bederatzi herrialde dira

that have significant native populations

jatorrizko populazio nabarmena dutenak

which speak both futureless and futured languages.

eta etorkizunik gabeko eta etorkizundun hizkuntzak hitz egiten dituztenak.

And what I'm going to do is form statistical matched pairs

Eta honekin, estatistikoki bat datozen bikoteak osatuko ditut

between families that are nearly identical on every dimension that I can measure,

neur ditzakedan dimentsio guztietan ia-ia berdinak direnak.

and then I'm going to explore whether or not the link between language and savings holds

Ea hizkuntzaren eta aurrezteko gaitasunaren arteko lotura mantentzen den

even after controlling for all of these levels.

maila guzti horiek kontrolatu ondoren ere.

What are the characteristics we can control for?

Zer ezaugarri kontrola ditzakegu?

Well I'm going to match families on country of birth and residence,

Herrialde berean jaio eta bizi diren familiak hartuko ditut.

the demographics -- what sex, their age --

Demografia -- sexua, adina --,

their income level within their own country,

herrialde horretan duten irabazi maila,

their educational achievement, a lot about their family structure.

hezkuntza lorpenak, familia egiturari buruzko gauza asko.

It turns out there are six different ways to be married in Europe.

Ikusi dut sei modu desberdinetan egon zaitezkeela ezkonduta Europan.

And most granularly, I break them down by religion

Eta xehetasun gehiagorako, erlijioka zatitu ditut.

where there are 72 categories of religions in the world --

72 erlijio-kategoria daude munduan;

so an extreme level of granularity.

Beraz, xehetasun maila oso altua.

There are 1.4 billion different ways that a family can find itself.

1.4 bilioi modu desberdinetan eratu daiteke familia bat.

Now effectively everything I'm going to tell you from now on

Hemendik aurrera esango dizuedana

is only comparing these basically nearly identical families.

ia-ia identikoak diren familia horiek alderatuta ateratakoa da.

It's getting as close as possible to the thought experiment

Asko gerturatzen da esperimentu teorikora,

of finding two families both of whom live in Brussels

Bruselan bizi diren bi familia aurkitzearena,

who are identical on every single one of these dimensions,

arlo guzti horietan berdinak direnak

but one of whom speaks Flemish and one of whom speaks French;

baina batak flandriera eta besteak frantsesa hitz egiten dutenak;

or two families that live in a rural district in Nigeria,

Edo Nigeriako landa eremuan bizi diren bi familia,

one of whom speaks Hausa and one of whom speaks Igbo.

batak Hausa eta besteak Igbo hitz egiten dutenak.

Now even after all of this granular level of control,

Kontrol maila hain altua erabili ondoren ere,

do futureless language speakers seem to save more?

etorkizunik gabeko hizkuntza dutenek gehiago aurrezten al dute?

Yes, futureless language speakers, even after this level of control,

Bai. Etorkizunik gabeko hizkuntzadunek, kontrol honen ondoren ere,

are 30 percent more likely to report having saved in any given year.

urte batean aurreztu izana aitortzeko ehuneko 30eko aukera handiagoa dute.

Does this have cumulative effects?

Eragin gehigarria al du horrek? Bai.

Yes, by the time they retire, futureless language speakers, holding constant their income,

Erretiratzean, etorkizun gabeko hizkuntzakoek diru sarrera konstante mantenduz

are going to retire with 25 percent more in savings.

ehuneko 25 aurrezpen gehiago izango dituzte.

Can we push this data even further?

Gehiago eska al diezaiekegu datu hauei?

Yes, because I just told you, we actually collect a lot of health data as economists.

Bai. Esan bezala, ekonomistok osasunaren inguruko datu asko ditugu.

Now how can we think about health behaviors to think about savings?

Nola lotu ditzakegu osasun portaera eta aurrezpenak?

Well, think about smoking, for example.

Pentsa erretzea, adibidez.

Smoking is in some deep sense negative savings.

Erretzea, funtsean aurrezpen negatiboa da.

If savings is current pain in exchange for future pleasure,

Aurreztea egungo galera etorkizuneko plazerrarekin trukatzea bada,

smoking is just the opposite.

erretzea justu aurkakoa da.

It's current pleasure in exchange for future pain.

Egungo plazerra etorkizuneko galeraren truke.

What we should expect then is the opposite effect.

Beraz, alderantzizko efektua espero dezakegu.

And that's exactly what we find.

Eta horixe aurkitzen dugu.

Futureless language speakers are 20 to 24 percent less likely

Etorkizunik gabeko hizkuntza dutenek ehuneko 20-24

to be smoking at any given point in time compared to identical families,

gutxiago erretzen dute familia identikoekin alderatuta,

and they're going to be 13 to 17 percent less likely

eta ehuneko 13-17 aukera gutxiago

to be obese by the time they retire,

dute erretiratzean obesoak izateko,

and they're going to report being 21 percent more likely

eta ehuneko 21 gehiagok aitortuko dute

to have used a condom in their last sexual encounter.

kondoia erabili zutela azken sexu harremanean.

I could go on and on with the list of differences that you can find.

Luze jarrai dezaket aurki ditzakegun aldeen zerrendarekin.

It's almost impossible not to find a savings behavior

Ia ezinezkoa da honek eragiten ez dion

for which this strong effect isn't present.

aurrezpenari lotutako portaera bat aurkitzea.

My linguistics and economics colleagues at Yale and I are just starting to do this work

Lan honekin hasi berriak gara linguistika eta ekonomiako Yale-eko lankideak eta ni

and really explore and understand the ways that these subtle nudges

benetan aztertu eta ulertzeko asmoz, xehetasun txiki horiek

cause us to think more or less about the future every single time we speak.

nola, hitz egiten dugunero, etorkizunean gehiago edo gutxiago pentsarazten diguten.

Ultimately, the goal,

Azken finean, helburua,

once we understand how these subtle effects can change our decision making,

ezaugarri horiek gure erabakiengan nola eragiten duten ongi ulertzean,

we want to be able to provide people tools

jendeari tresnak eskaintzea izango da

so that they can consciously make themselves better savers

berariaz aurreztaile hobeak

and more conscious investors in their own future.

eta etorkizunerako inbertitzaile hobeak izan daitezen.

Thank you very much.

Mila esker.

(Applause)

(Txaloak)