Keith Chen: Could your language affect your ability to save money?

246,260 views ใƒป 2013-02-19

TED


ูŠุฑุฌู‰ ุงู„ู†ู‚ุฑ ู†ู‚ุฑู‹ุง ู…ุฒุฏูˆุฌู‹ุง ููˆู‚ ุงู„ุชุฑุฌู…ุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ ุฃุฏู†ุงู‡ ู„ุชุดุบูŠู„ ุงู„ููŠุฏูŠูˆ.

00:00
Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast
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ุงู„ู…ุชุฑุฌู…: Mira Kraรฏmia ุงู„ู…ุฏู‚ู‘ู‚: Ayman Mahmoud
00:15
The global economic financial crisis has reignited public interest
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ุฌุฏู‘ุฏุช ุงู„ุฃุฒู…ุฉ ุงู„ุงู‚ุชุตุงุฏูŠู‘ุฉ ุงู„ุนุงู„ู…ูŠู‘ุฉ ุงู„ุฃุฎูŠุฑุฉ ุงู‡ุชู…ุงู… ุงู„ุฑู‘ุฃูŠ ุงู„ุนุงู…ู‘
00:20
in something that's actually one of the oldest questions in economics,
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ุจุณุคุงู„ ูŠุนุฏู‘ ู…ู† ุฃู‚ุฏู… ุงู„ุฃุณุฆู„ุฉ ููŠ ุนู„ูˆู… ุงู„ุงู‚ุชุตุงุฏุŒ
00:23
dating back to at least before Adam Smith.
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ูƒุงู† ู…ูˆุฌูˆุฏุง ุญุชู‘ู‰ ู‚ุจู„ ุขุฏู… ุณู…ูŠุซ.
00:26
And that is, why is it that countries with seemingly similar economies and institutions
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ูˆู‡ูˆ: ู„ู…ุงุฐุง ุงู„ุฏู‘ูˆู„ ุงู„ุชูŠ ู„ู‡ุง ู…ุคุณู‘ุณุงุช ูˆ ุงู‚ุชุตุงุฏ ู…ุชุดุงุจู‡ุฉ, ุนู„ู‰ ู…ุง ูŠุธู‡ุฑ
00:31
can display radically different savings behavior?
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ุชุธู‡ุฑ ุณู„ูˆูƒุงุช ุชูˆููŠุฑูŠู‘ุฉ ู…ุฎุชู„ูุฉ ุฌุฐุฑูŠู‘ุงุŸ
00:35
Now, many brilliant economists have spent their entire lives working on this question,
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ุงู„ุนุฏูŠุฏ ู…ู† ุฎุจุฑุงุก ุงู„ุงู‚ุชุตุงุฏ ุฃู…ุถูˆุง ุญูŠุงุชู‡ู… ูƒุงู…ู„ุฉ ูŠุนู…ู„ูˆู† ุนู„ู‰ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ุณู‘ุคุงู„ุŒ
00:39
and as a field we've made a tremendous amount of headway
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ู„ู‚ุฏ ุชู‚ุฏู‘ู…ู†ุง ูƒุซูŠุฑุง ููŠ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู…ูŠุฏุงู†ุŒ
00:43
and we understand a lot about this.
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ูˆ ุฃุตุจุญู†ุง ู†ุนู„ู… ุงู„ูƒุซูŠุฑ ุญูˆู„ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู…ูˆุถูˆุน.
00:45
What I'm here to talk with you about today is an intriguing new hypothesis
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ุฃู†ุง ู‡ู†ุง ุงู„ูŠูˆู… ู„ุฃุญุฏู‘ุซูƒู… ุนู† ูุฑุถูŠู‘ุฉ ุฌุฏูŠุฏุฉ ู…ุซูŠุฑุฉ ู„ู„ุงู‡ุชู…ุงู…
00:49
and some surprisingly powerful new findings that I've been working on
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ูˆ ุจุนุถ ุงู„ุงูƒุชุดุงูุงุช ุงู„ุถู‘ุฎู…ุฉ ุงู„ุชูŠ ู‚ู…ุช ุจุงู„ุนู…ู„ ุนู„ูŠู‡ุง
00:53
about the link between the structure of the language you speak
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ุญูˆู„ ุงู„ุตู‘ู„ุฉ ุจูŠู† ุชุฑูƒูŠุจุฉ ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุฉ ุงู„ุชูŠ ุชุชูƒู„ู‘ู…ู‡ุง
00:57
and how you find yourself with the propensity to save.
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ูˆ ู†ุฒุนุชูƒ ู†ุญูˆ ุชูˆููŠุฑ ุงู„ุฃู…ูˆุงู„.
01:02
Let me tell you a little bit about savings rates, a little bit about language,
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ุฏุนูˆู†ูŠ ุฃุฎุจุฑูƒู… ู‚ู„ูŠู„ุง ุญูˆู„ ู…ุนุฏู‘ู„ุงุช ุงู„ุงุฏู‘ุฎุงุฑ ูˆ ู‚ู„ูŠู„ุง ุญูˆู„ ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุฉุŒ
01:05
and then I'll draw that connection.
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ุซู…ู‘ ุณู†ู‚ูˆู… ุจุฑุจุทู‡ู…ุง ู…ุนุง.
01:07
Let's start by thinking about the member countries of the OECD,
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ู„ู†ุจุฏุฃ ุจุงู„ุชููƒู‘ูŠุฑ ููŠ ุงู„ุฏู‘ูˆู„ ุงู„ุฃุนุถุงุก ุจOECDุŒ
01:12
or the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.
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ุฃูˆ ู…ู†ุธู…ุฉ ุงู„ุชู‘ุนุงูˆู† ูˆุงู„ุชู‘ู†ู…ูŠุฉ ุงู„ุงู‚ุชุตุงุฏูŠุฉ.
01:15
OECD countries, by and large, you should think about these
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ุงู„ุฏู‘ูˆู„ ุงู„ู…ู†ุชู…ูŠุฉ ู„ู…ู†ุธู…ุฉ ุงู„ุชู‘ุนุงูˆู† ูˆุงู„ุชู‘ู†ู…ูŠุฉ ุงู„ุงู‚ุชุตุงุฏูŠุฉุŒ
01:19
as the richest, most industrialized countries in the world.
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ู‡ูŠ ู…ู† ุฃุบู†ู‰ ุงู„ุฏู‘ูˆู„ ุงู„ุตู†ุงุนูŠู‘ุฉ ููŠ ุงู„ุนุงู„ู….
01:22
And by joining the OECD, they were affirming a common commitment
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ูˆ ุจุงู†ุถู…ุงู…ู‡ุง ู„ู„ู…ู†ุธู‘ู…ุฉุŒ ูู‡ูŠ ุชุคูƒู‘ุฏ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุชุฒุงู… ุฌู…ุงุนูŠู‘
01:26
to democracy, open markets and free trade.
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ุจุงู„ุฏูŠู…ู‚ุฑุงุทูŠู‘ุฉุŒ ุงู„ุฃุณูˆุงู‚ ุงู„ู…ูุชูˆุญุฉ ูˆ ุงู„ุชู‘ุฌุงุฑุฉ ุงู„ุญุฑู‘ุฉ.
01:29
Despite all of these similarities, we see huge differences in savings behavior.
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ูˆุฑุบู… ูƒู„ู‘ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุชุดุงุจู‡ุงุชุŒ ูุฅู†ู‘ู†ุง ู†ุฑู‰ ุงุฎุชู„ุงูุงุช ูƒุจูŠุฑุฉ ููŠ ุงู„ุณู‘ู„ูˆูƒ ุงู„ุชูˆููŠุฑูŠู‘.
01:34
So all the way over on the left of this graph,
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ุนู„ู‰ ุทูˆู„ ุงู„ุฌุฒุก ุงู„ุฃูŠุณุฑ ู…ู† ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ุฑู‘ุณู… ุงู„ุจูŠุงู†ูŠู‘ุŒ ู…ุง ุชุฑูˆู†ู‡ ู‡ูˆ ุฃู†ู‘
01:36
what you see is many OECD countries saving over a quarter of their GDP every year,
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ุงู„ุนุฏูŠุฏ ู…ู† ุงู„ุฏูˆู„ ุงู„ู…ู†ุชู…ูŠุฉ ู„ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู…ู†ุธู‘ู…ุฉ ุชูˆูู‘ุฑ ุณู†ูˆูŠู‘ุง ู‚ุฑุงุจุฉ ุฑุจุน ู†ุงุชุฌู‡ุง ุงู„ุฏู‘ุงุฎู„ูŠ ุงู„ุฅุฌู…ุงู„ูŠุŒ
01:41
and some OECD countries saving over a third of their GDP per year.
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ูˆ ุจุนุถ ุงู„ุฏู‘ูˆู„ ุงู„ุขุฎุฑู‰ ุชูˆูู‘ุฑ ุณู†ูˆูŠู‘ุง ุญูˆุงู„ูŠ ุงู„ุซู‘ู„ุซ ู…ู† ู†ุงุชุฌู‡ุง ุงู„ุฏุงุฎู„ูŠ ุงู„ุฅุฌู…ุงู„ูŠ.
01:46
Holding down the right flank of the OECD, all the way on the other side, is Greece.
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ู…ู† ุงู„ุฌู‡ุฉ ุงู„ุฃุฎุฑู‰ุŒ ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ุงู„ูŠูˆู†ุงู†.
01:50
And what you can see is that over the last 25 years,
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ูŠู…ูƒู†ูƒู… ุฃู† ุชุฑูˆุง ุฃู†ู‘ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู…ุชุฏุงุฏ ุงู„ู€25 ุณู†ุฉ ุงู„ุฃุฎูŠุฑุฉุŒ
01:54
Greece has barely managed to save more than 10 percent of their GDP.
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ูˆุฌุฏุช ุงู„ูŠูˆู†ุงู† ุตุนูˆุจุฉ ููŠ ุชูˆููŠุฑ ุฃูƒุซุฑ ู…ู† 10% ู…ู† ู†ุงุชุฌู‡ุง ุงู„ุฏู‘ุงุฎู„ูŠ ุงู„ุฅุฌู…ุงู„ูŠ.
01:58
It should be noted, of course, that the United States and the U.K. are the next in line.
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ู†ู„ุงุญุธ ุฃู†ู‘ ุงู„ูˆู„ุงูŠุงุช ุงู„ู…ุชู‘ุญุฏุฉ ุงู„ุฃู…ุฑูŠูƒูŠุฉ ูˆ ุงู„ู…ู…ู„ูƒุฉ ุงู„ู…ุชู‘ุญุฏุฉ ู‡ู…ุง ุงู„ุชู‘ุงู„ูŠุชุงู† ุจุนุฏ ุงู„ูŠูˆู†ุงู†.
02:05
Now that we see these huge differences in savings rates,
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ุงู„ุขู† ูˆ ุจุนุฏ ุงุทู‘ู„ุงุนู†ุง ุนู„ู‰ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุงุฎุชู„ุงูุงุช ุงู„ูƒุจูŠุฑุฉ ููŠ ู…ุนุฏู‘ู„ุงุช ุงู„ุชู‘ูˆููŠุฑุŒ
02:07
how is it possible that language might have something to do with these differences?
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ูƒูŠู ูŠู…ูƒู† ู„ู„ู‘ุบุฉ ุฃู† ุชูƒูˆู† ุนุงู…ู„ุง ููŠ ูˆุฌูˆุฏ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุงุฎุชู„ุงูุงุชุŸ
02:11
Let me tell you a little bit about how languages fundamentally differ.
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ุฏุนูˆู†ูŠ ุฃุฎุจุฑูƒู… ุนู† ูƒูŠููŠู‘ุฉ ุงุฎุชู„ุงู ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุงุช ุฌูˆู‡ุฑูŠู‘ุง.
02:14
Linguists and cognitive scientists have been exploring this question for many years now.
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ู„ู‚ุฏ ูƒุงู† ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบูˆูŠูˆู† ูˆ ุฎุจุฑุงุก ุนู„ูˆู… ุงู„ุงุฏุฑุงูƒ ูŠุจุญุซูˆู† ููŠ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ุณู‘ุคุงู„ ู„ุณู†ูˆุงุช.
02:19
And then I'll draw the connection between these two behaviors.
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ุซู…ู‘ ุณุฃู‚ูˆู… ุจุฑุณู… ุงู„ุตู‘ู„ุฉ ุจูŠู† ู‡ุงุฐูŠู† ุงู„ุณู‘ู„ูˆูƒูŠู†.
02:24
Many of you have probably already noticed that I'm Chinese.
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ุงู„ุนุฏูŠุฏ ู…ู†ูƒู… ู„ุงุญุธ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุฃุฑุฌุญ ุฃู†ู‘ู†ูŠ ุตูŠู†ูŠู‘.
02:27
I grew up in the Midwest of the United States.
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ุชุฑุนุฑุนุช ููŠ ุงู„ุบุฑุจ ุงู„ุฃูˆุณุท ุงู„ุฃู…ุฑูŠูƒูŠู‘.
02:30
And something I realized quite early on
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ูˆ ุงู„ุฃู…ุฑ ุงู„ุฐูŠ ุฃุฏุฑูƒุชู‡ ู…ุจูƒู‘ุฑุง ูƒุงู† ู‡ูˆ ุฃู†ู‘
02:32
was that the Chinese language forced me to speak about and --
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ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุฉ ุงู„ุตูŠู†ูŠู‘ุฉ ุฃุฌุจุฑุชู†ูŠ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุชู‘ุญุฏุซ ุนู† --
02:36
in fact, more fundamentally than that --
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ููŠ ุงู„ูˆุงู‚ุนุŒ ุงู„ุฃู…ุฑ ุฃูƒุซุฑ ุฌูˆู‡ุฑูŠู‘ุฉ ู…ู† ุฐู„ูƒ --
02:39
ever so slightly forced me to think about family in very different ways.
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ูˆ ุงู„ุชู‘ููƒูŠุฑ ุญูˆู„ ุงู„ุนุงุฆู„ุฉ ุจุทุฑู‚ ู…ุฎุชู„ูุฉ.
02:43
Now, how might that be? Let me give you an example.
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ูƒูŠู ูŠูƒูˆู† ู‡ุฐุง ู…ู…ูƒู†ุงุŸ ุฏุนูˆู†ูŠ ุฃู…ุฏู‘ูƒู… ุจู…ุซุงู„.
02:45
Suppose I were talking with you and I was introducing you to my uncle.
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ู„ู†ูุชุฑุถ ุฃู†ู‘ู†ูŠ ุฃุชุญุฏู‘ุซ ู…ุนูƒู… ูˆ ุฃุญุงูˆู„ ุชู‚ุฏูŠู…ูƒู… ู„ู‚ุฑูŠุจูŠ.
02:49
You understood exactly what I just said in English.
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ู„ู‚ุฏ ูู‡ู…ุชู… ุจุงู„ุถู‘ุจุท ู…ุง ู‚ู„ุชู‡ ู„ุชูˆู‘ูŠ ุจุงู„ุงู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ.
02:52
If we were speaking Mandarin Chinese with each other, though,
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ู„ูƒู† ุฅู† ูƒู†ู‘ุง ู†ุชุญุฏู‘ุซ ู…ุนุง ุจุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุฉ ุงู„ุตูŠู†ูŠุฉุŒ
02:55
I wouldn't have that luxury.
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ู„ู† ูŠูƒูˆู† ุฐู„ูƒ ุฃู…ุฑุง ู…ู…ูƒู†ุง.
02:57
I wouldn't have been able to convey so little information.
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ู„ู† ุฃุชู…ูƒู‘ู† ู…ู† ุงูŠุตุงู„ ู…ุซู„ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู‚ุฏุฑ ุงู„ุตู‘ุบูŠุฑ ู…ู† ุงู„ู…ุนู„ูˆู…ุงุช.
03:00
What my language would have forced me to do,
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ู…ุง ู‚ุฏ ุชุฌุจุฑู†ูŠ ู„ุบุชูŠ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ู‚ูŠุงู… ุจู‡ุŒ
03:02
instead of just telling you, "This is my uncle,"
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ู‡ูˆ ุฃู†ู‘ู†ูŠ ุนูˆุถ ุฃู† ุฃู‚ูˆู„:"ู‡ุฐุง ู‡ูˆ ู‚ุฑูŠุจูŠ"ุŒ
03:04
is to tell you a tremendous amount of additional information.
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ุณุฃุฎุจุฑูƒู… ุจูƒู…ู‘ ู‡ุงุฆู„ ู…ู† ุงู„ู…ุนู„ูˆู…ุงุช ุงู„ุฅุถุงููŠู‘ุฉ.
03:08
My language would force me to tell you
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ู„ุบุชู†ูŠ ุณุชุฌุจุฑู†ูŠ ุนู„ู‰ ุฃู† ุฃุฎุจุฑูƒู… ุฅู† ูƒุงู†
03:09
whether or not this was an uncle on my mother's side or my father's side,
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ู‚ุฑูŠุจูŠ ู‡ุฐุง ู…ู† ุฌู‡ุฉ ุงู„ุฃู… (ุฎุงู„) ุฃูˆ ู…ู† ุฌู‡ุฉ ุงู„ุฃุจ (ุนู…ู‘)ุŒ
03:13
whether this was an uncle by marriage or by birth,
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ุฅู† ูƒุงู† ู‚ุฑูŠุจูŠ ุจุงู„ุฒู‘ูˆุงุฌ ุฃูˆ ุจุงู„ูˆู„ุงุฏุฉุŒ
03:16
and if this man was my father's brother,
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ูˆ ุฅู† ูƒุงู† ู‚ุฑูŠุจูŠ ู‡ุฐุง ู‡ูˆ ุนู…ูŠู‘ุŒ ุนู„ูŠู‘ ุฃู† ุฃุฎุจุฑูƒู…
03:18
whether he was older than or younger than my father.
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ุฅู† ูƒุงู† ุฃูƒุจุฑ ุณู†ู‘ุง ุฃูˆ ุฃุตุบุฑ ู…ู† ูˆุงู„ุฏูŠ.
03:21
All of this information is obligatory. Chinese doesn't let me ignore it.
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ูƒู„ู‘ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู…ุนู„ูˆู…ุงุช ุถุฑูˆุฑูŠู‘ุฉ. ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุฉ ุงู„ุตูŠู†ูŠู‘ุฉ ู„ุง ุชุณู…ุญ ู„ูŠ ุจุชุฌุงู‡ู„ู‡ุง.
03:25
And in fact, if I want to speak correctly,
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ูˆ ุจุงู„ูˆุงู‚ุนุŒ ุฅู† ุฃุฑุฏุช ุฃู† ุฃุชุญุฏู‘ุซ ุจุทุฑูŠู‚ุฉ ุณู„ูŠู…ุฉุŒ
03:27
Chinese forces me to constantly think about it.
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ูุฅู†ู‘ ุงู„ุตูŠู†ูŠู‘ุฉ ุชุฌุจุฑู†ูŠ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุชู‘ููƒูŠุฑ ุฏูˆู…ุง ููŠู…ุง ุฃู‚ูˆู„ู‡.
03:30
Now, that fascinated me endlessly as a child,
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ู„ู‚ุฏ ุฃุจู‡ุฑู†ูŠ ุฐู„ูƒ ุนู†ุฏ ุตุบุฑูŠุŒ
03:34
but what fascinates me even more today as an economist
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ู„ูƒู† ู…ุง ูŠุจู‡ุฑู†ูŠ ุฃูƒุซุฑ ุงู„ูŠูˆู… ูƒุฎุจูŠุฑ ุงู‚ุชุตุงุฏุŒ
03:37
is that some of these same differences carry through to how languages speak about time.
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ู‡ูˆ ุฃู†ู‘ ุจุนุถ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุงุฎุชู„ุงูุงุช ุชุตู„ ุฅู„ู‰ ุทุฑูŠู‚ุฉ ุญุฏูŠุซ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุงุช ุนู† ุงู„ุฒู‘ู…ู†.
03:43
So for example, if I'm speaking in English, I have to speak grammatically differently
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ู…ุซู„ุงุŒ ุฅู† ูƒู†ุช ุฃุชุญุฏู‘ุซ ุงู„ุงู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉุŒ ุฃุถุทุฑู‘ ู„ู„ุญุฏูŠุซ ุจุทุฑู‚ ู…ุฎุชู„ูุฉ ู†ุญูˆูŠู‘ุง
03:47
if I'm talking about past rain, "It rained yesterday,"
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ุฅู† ูƒู†ุช ุฃุชุญุฏู‘ุซ ููŠ ุงู„ู…ุงุถูŠุŒ ุฃู‚ูˆู„:"ุงู‚ุฏ ุฃู…ุทุฑุช ุงู„ุจุงุฑุญุฉ"ุŒ
03:50
current rain, "It is raining now,"
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ุงู„ุขู†ุŒ "ุฅู†ู‘ู‡ุง ุชู…ุทุฑ"ุŒ
03:52
or future rain, "It will rain tomorrow."
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ูˆ ููŠ ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ุŒ "ุณูˆู ุชู…ุทุฑ ุบุฏุง".
03:54
Notice that English requires a lot more information with respect to the timing of events.
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ู„ุงุญุธูˆุง ุฃู†ู‘ ุงู„ุงู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ ุชุชุทู„ู‘ุจ ุฃูƒุซุฑ ู…ุนู„ูˆู…ุงุช ู…ุน ุชุบูŠู‘ุฑ ุฃูˆู‚ุงุช ุงู„ุฃุญุฏุงุซ.
03:59
Why? Because I have to consider that
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ู„ู…ุงุฐุงุŸ ู„ุฃู†ู‘ ุนู„ูŠู†ุง ุงู„ุชู‘ููƒูŠุฑ ููŠ ุงู„ุฃู…ุฑ
04:01
and I have to modify what I'm saying to say, "It will rain," or "It's going to rain."
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ูˆ ุฃุถุทุฑู‘ ู„ู‚ูˆู„ "ุณุชู…ุทุฑ" ุฃูˆ "ุณูˆู ุชู…ุทุฑ".
04:06
It's simply not permissible in English to say, "It rain tomorrow."
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ู„ุง ูŠู…ูƒู†ู†ูŠ ุฃู† ู‚ูˆู„ ุจุจุณุงุทุฉ:"ู‡ู‰ ู…ุทุฑ ุบุฏุง".
04:10
In contrast to that, that's almost exactly what you would say in Chinese.
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ููŠ ุงู„ู…ู‚ุงุจู„ุŒ ุณูŠูƒูˆู† ุฐู„ูƒ ุชู…ุงู…ุง ู…ุง ุชู‚ูˆู„ู‡ ุฅู† ูƒู†ุช ุชุชุญุฏู‘ุซ ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุฉ ุงู„ุตูŠู†ูŠู‘ุฉ.
04:14
A Chinese speaker can basically say something
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ุงู„ู†ู‘ุงุทู‚ ูŠุงู„ุตูŠู†ูŠู‘ุฉ ูŠู…ูƒู†ู‡ ุฃู† ูŠู‚ูˆู„ ุดูŠุฆุง
04:17
that sounds very strange to an English speaker's ears.
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ุณูŠุจุฏูˆ ููŠ ุบุงูŠุฉ ุงู„ุบุฑุงุจุฉ ุจุงู„ู†ู‘ุณุจุฉ ู„ุฃุฐู† ุงู„ู†ู‘ุงุทู‚ ุจุงู„ุงู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ.
04:19
They can say, "Yesterday it rain," "Now it rain," "Tomorrow it rain."
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ูŠู…ูƒู†ู‡ู… ุฃู† ูŠู‚ูˆู„ูˆุง:"ุงู„ุจุงุฑุญุฉ ุชู…ุทุฑ"ุŒ "ุงู„ุขู† ุชู…ุทุฑ"ุŒ "ุบุฏุง ุชู…ุทุฑ".
04:24
In some deep sense, Chinese doesn't divide up the time spectrum
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ุจุตูุฉ ุนุงู…ู‘ุฉุŒ ุงู„ุตูŠู†ูŠู‘ุฉ ู„ุง ุชู‚ูˆู… ุจุชู‚ุณูŠู… ุงู„ุฃุทูˆุงุฑ ุงู„ุฒู…ู†ูŠู‘ุฉ
04:28
in the same way that English forces us to constantly do in order to speak correctly.
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ุงู„ุชูŠ ู†ุถุทู‘ุฑ ู„ู„ู‚ูŠุงู… ุจู‡ุง ุฅุฐุง ุฃุฑุฏู†ุง ุงู„ุชู‘ุญุฏุซ ุจุงู„ุงู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ ุจุทุฑูŠู‚ุฉ ุณู„ูŠู…ุฉ.
04:34
Is this difference in languages
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ู‡ู„ ุฃู†ู‘ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ุงุฎุชู„ุงู ููŠ ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุงุช
04:36
only between very, very distantly related languages, like English and Chinese?
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ู…ูˆุฌูˆุฏ ูู‚ุท ููŠ ุงู„ู‘ู„ุบุงุช ุงู„ุจุนูŠุฏุฉ ุนู† ุจุนุถู‡ุง ุงู„ุจุนุถุŒ ู…ุซู„ ุงู„ุตูŠู†ูŠู‘ุฉ ูˆ ุงู„ุงู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉุŸ
04:40
Actually, no.
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ููŠ ุงู„ูˆุงู‚ุนุŒ ู„ุง.
04:41
So many of you know, in this room, that English is a Germanic language.
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ุงู„ุนุฏูŠุฏ ู…ู†ูƒู… ุจู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุบุฑูุฉ ูŠุนู„ู…ูˆู† ุฃู†ู‘ ุงู„ุงู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ ู„ุบุฉ ุฌุฑู…ุงู†ูŠู‘ุฉ.
04:45
What you may not have realized is that English is actually an outlier.
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ู…ุง ู„ุง ุชุนู„ู…ูˆู† ู‡ูˆ ุฃู†ู‘ ุงู„ุงู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ ุดุงุฐู‘ุฉุŒ
04:48
It is the only Germanic language that requires this.
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ุฅุฐ ุฃู†ู‘ู‡ุง ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุฉ ุงู„ุฌุฑู…ุงู†ูŠู‘ุฉ ุงู„ูˆุญูŠุฏุฉ ุงู„ุชูŠ ุชุชุทู„ู‘ุจ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ุฃู…ุฑ.
04:52
For example, most other Germanic language speakers
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ู…ุซู„ุงุŒ ู…ุนุธู… ุจู‚ูŠู‘ุฉ ุงู„ู…ุชุญุฏู‘ุซูŠู† ุจู„ุบุงุช ุฌุฑู…ุงู†ูŠู‘ุฉ
04:55
feel completely comfortable talking about rain tomorrow
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ู„ุง ูŠุฒุนุฌู‡ู… ุฃุจุฏุง ุงู„ุญุฏูŠุซ ุนู† ุงู„ู…ุทุฑ ุบุฏุง ุจู‚ูˆู„
04:58
by saying, "Morgen regnet es,"
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"Morgen regnet es"
05:00
quite literally to an English ear, "It rain tomorrow."
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ุงู„ุชู‘ุฑุฌู…ุฉ ุงู„ุญุฑููŠู‘ุฉ ู‡ูŠ "ุชู…ุทุฑ ุบุฏุง".
05:03
This led me, as a behavioral economist, to an intriguing hypothesis.
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ูƒุฎุจูŠุฑ ุงู‚ุชุตุงุฏ ุณู„ูˆูƒูŠู‘ุŒ ู‚ุงุฏู†ูŠ ู‡ุฐุง ุฅู„ู‰ ูุฑุถูŠู‘ุฉ ู…ุฐู‡ู„ุฉ.
05:09
Could how you speak about time, could how your language forces you to think about time,
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ู‡ู„ ูŠู…ูƒู† ู„ุทุฑูŠู‚ุฉ ุชุญุฏู‘ุซูƒ ุนู† ุงู„ุฒู‘ู…ู†ุŒ ู‡ู„ ูŠู…ูƒู† ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ุชุฌุจุฑูƒ ู„ุบุชูƒ ุฃู† ุชููƒูŠุฑ ุญูˆู„ ุงู„ุฒู‘ู…ู†ุŒ
05:13
affect your propensity to behave across time?
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ุฃู† ุชุคุซู‘ุฑ ููŠ ู…ูŠูˆู„ูƒ ุงู„ุณู„ูˆูƒูŠู‘ุฉ ุนุจุฑ ุงู„ุฒู‘ู…ู†ุŸ
05:17
You speak English, a futured language.
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ุฃู†ุชู… ุชุชุญุฏู‘ุซูˆู† ุงู„ุงู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉุŒ
05:19
And what that means is that every time you discuss the future,
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ูƒู„ู‘ ู…ุฑู‘ุฉ ุชู‚ูˆู…ูˆู† ุจุงู„ุญุฏูŠุซ ุนู† ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ุŒ
05:23
or any kind of a future event,
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ุฃูˆ ุฃูŠู‘ ู†ูˆุน ู…ู† ุงู„ุฃุญุฏุงุซ ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ูŠู‘ุฉุŒ
05:24
grammatically you're forced to cleave that from the present
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ู†ุญูˆูŠู‘ุงุŒ ูุฃู†ุชู… ู…ุฌุจุฑูˆู† ุนู„ู‰ ุงุดุชู‚ุงู‚ ุฐู„ูƒ ู…ู† ุงู„ู…ุถุงุฑุน
05:28
and treat it as if it's something viscerally different.
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ูˆ ุงู„ุชู‘ุนุงู…ู„ ู…ุนู‡ ูƒู…ุง ู„ูˆ ูƒุงู† ุดูŠุฆุง ู…ุฎุชู„ูุง ุฌูˆู‡ุฑูŠู‘ุง.
05:30
Now suppose that that visceral difference
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ู„ู†ูุชุฑุถ ุฃู†ู‘ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ุงุฎุชู„ุงู ุงู„ุฌูˆู‡ุฑูŠู‘
05:33
makes you subtly dissociate the future from the present every time you speak.
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ูŠุฌุนู„ูƒ ุชูุตู„ ุงู„ุญุงุถุฑ ุนู† ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ ุจุจุฑุงุนุฉ ูƒู„ู‘ ู…ุฑู‘ุฉ ุชุชูƒู„ู‘ู… ููŠู‡ุง.
05:37
If that's true and it makes the future feel
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ูˆุฅู† ูƒุงู† ู‡ุฐุง ุตุญูŠุญุงุŒ ูˆูƒุงู† ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ ูŠุจุฏูˆ
05:39
like something more distant and more different from the present,
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ูƒุฃู†ู‘ู‡ ุดูŠุก ุฃุจุนุฏ ุฒู…ู†ูŠู‘ุง ูˆ ุฃูƒุซุฑ ุงุฎุชู„ุงูุง ุนู† ุงู„ุญุงุถุฑุŒ
05:42
that's going to make it harder to save.
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ู‡ุฐุง ุณูŠุฌุนู„ ุชูˆููŠุฑ ุงู„ุฃู…ูˆุงู„ ุฃู…ุฑุง ุฃุตุนุจ.
05:44
If, on the other hand, you speak a futureless language,
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ู„ูƒู† ู…ู† ุฌู‡ุฉ ุฃุฎุฑู‰ุŒ ุฅู† ูƒู†ุช ุชุณุชุนู…ู„ ู„ุบุฉ ู„ุง ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ ุจู‡ุงุŒ
05:47
the present and the future, you speak about them identically.
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ู…ุชุญุฏู‘ุซุง ุนู† ุงู„ุญุงุถุฑ ูˆ ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ ุจุงู„ุทู‘ุฑูŠู‚ุฉ ู†ูุณู‡ุง.
05:50
If that subtly nudges you to feel about them identically,
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ุฅู† ูƒุงู† ุฐู„ูƒ ุฏูุนูƒ ุฅู„ู‰ ุงู„ุชู‘ููƒูŠุฑ ููŠู‡ู…ุง ุจู†ูุณ ุงู„ุดู‘ูƒู„ุŒ
05:53
that's going to make it easier to save.
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ู‡ุฐุง ุณูŠุฌุนู„ ุงู„ุงุฏู‘ุฎุงุฑ ุฃู…ุฑุง ุฃุณู‡ู„.
05:56
Now this is a fanciful theory.
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ู‡ุฐู‡ ุชุจุฏูˆ ู†ุธุฑูŠู‘ุฉ ุฎูŠุงู„ูŠู‘ุฉ.
05:58
I'm a professor, I get paid to have fanciful theories.
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ุฃู†ุง ุจุฑูˆููŠุณูˆุฑุŒ ุฃุชู‚ุงุถู‰ ุฃู…ูˆุงู„ุง ู„ูƒูŠ ุฃู‚ูˆู… ุจู†ุธุฑูŠุงุช ุฎูŠุงู„ูŠู‘ุฉ.
06:01
But how would you actually go about testing such a theory?
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ู„ูƒู† ุนู…ู„ูŠู‘ุงุŒ ูƒูŠู ูŠู…ูƒู† ุชุฌุฑุจุฉ ู…ุซู„ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู†ู‘ุธุฑูŠุฉุŸ
06:05
Well, what I did with that was to access the linguistics literature.
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ุญุณู†ุงุŒ ู…ุง ูุนู„ุชู‡ ูƒุงู† ุงู„ุจุญุซ ููŠ ุฃุฏุจ ุงู„ู‘ู„ุบูˆูŠุงุช .
06:10
And interestingly enough, there are pockets of futureless language speakers
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ุงู„ุฃู…ุฑ ุงู„ู…ุซูŠุฑ ู„ู„ุงู‡ุชู…ุงู… ูƒุงู† ูˆุฌูˆุฏ ุงู„ุนุฏูŠุฏ ู…ู† ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุงุช ุงู„ุชูŠ ู„ุง ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ ุจู‡ุง
06:14
situated all over the world.
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ุจู…ุฎุชู„ู ุฃู†ุญุงุก ุงู„ุนุงู„ู….
06:16
This is a pocket of futureless language speakers in Northern Europe.
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ู‡ุฐู‡ ู…ุฌู…ูˆุนุฉ ู…ู† ุดู…ุงู„ ุฃูˆุฑูˆุจุง ู…ู† ู†ุงุทู‚ูŠ ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุงุช ุงู„ุชูŠ ู„ุง ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ ุจู‡ุง.
06:19
Interestingly enough, when you start to crank the data,
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ุงู„ุฃู…ุฑ ุงู„ู…ุซูŠุฑ ู„ู„ุงู‡ุชู…ุงู… ู‡ูˆ ุฃู†ู‘ู‡ ุนู†ุฏ ูุญุต ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุจูŠุงู†ุงุชุŒ
06:22
these pockets of futureless language speakers all around the world
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ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู…ุฌู…ูˆุนุงุช ู…ู† ู†ุงุทู‚ูŠ ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุงุช ุงู„ู„ุงู‘ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ูŠู‘ุฉ ุญูˆู„ ุฃู†ุญุงุก ุงู„ุนุงู„ู…
06:25
turn out to be, by and large, some of the world's best savers.
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ูŠุชุจูŠู‘ู† ุฃู†ู‘ู‡ุง ู…ู† ุฃูุถู„ ุงู„ุดุนูˆุจ ุงุฏู‘ุฎุงุฑุง ููŠ ุงู„ุนุงู„ู….
06:29
Just to give you a hint of that,
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ูู‚ุท ู„ุงุนุทุงุฆูƒู… ู„ู…ุญุฉ ุนู† ุฐูƒุŒ
06:31
let's look back at that OECD graph that we were talking about.
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ุฏุนูˆู†ุง ู†ูุญุต ุงู„ุฑู‘ุณู… ุงู„ุจูŠุงู†ูŠู‘ ู„ู…ู†ุธู…ุฉ ุงู„ุชู‘ุนุงูˆู† ูˆุงู„ุชู‘ู†ู…ูŠุฉ ุงู„ุงู‚ุชุตุงุฏูŠุฉ ุงู„ุฐูŠ ูƒู†ู‘ุง ู†ุชุญุฏู‘ุซ ุนู†ู‡.
06:34
What you see is that these bars are systematically taller
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ู†ุฑู‰ ุฃู†ู‘ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุฎุงู†ุงุช ู‡ูŠ ุฃุทูˆู„ ู…ู†ู‡ุฌูŠู‘ุง
06:38
and systematically shifted to the left
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ูˆ ุงู†ุชู‚ู„ุช ุฅู„ู‰ ุงู„ูŠุณุงุฑ
06:40
compared to these bars which are the members of the OECD that speak futured languages.
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ู…ู‚ุงุฑู†ุฉ ุจุงู„ุฎุงู†ุงุช ุงู„ุชูŠ ุชู…ุซู‘ู„ ุงู„ุฏูˆู„ ุงู„ุนุถูˆุฉ ุจุงู„ู…ู†ุธู…ุฉ ูˆ ุงู„ุชูŠ ุชุชูƒู„ู‘ู… ู„ุบุงุช ุจู‡ุง ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„.
06:44
What is the average difference here?
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ู…ุงู‡ูˆ ู…ุนุฏู‘ู„ ุงู„ุงุฎุชู„ุงู ู‡ู†ุงุŸ
06:46
Five percentage points of your GDP saved per year.
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ุชูˆููŠุฑ 5% ู…ู† ุงู„ู†ู‘ุงุชุฌ ุงู„ุฏู‘ุงุฎู„ูŠ ุงู„ุฎุงู‘ู… ุณู†ูˆูŠู‘ุง.
06:49
Over 25 years that has huge long-run effects on the wealth of your nation.
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ุทูŠู„ุฉ 25 ุณู†ุฉุŒ ูŠู…ูƒู† ู„ุฐู„ูƒ ุฃู† ูŠูƒูˆู† ู„ู‡ ุชุฃุซูŠุฑุงุช ุถุฎู…ุฉ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ู…ุฏู‰ ุงู„ุทู‘ูˆูŠู„ ุนู„ู‰ ุซุฑูˆุงุช ุงู„ุฃู…ู‘ุฉ.
06:54
Now while these findings are suggestive,
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ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุงูƒุชุดุงูุงุช ุฅูŠุญุงุฆูŠู‘ุฉุŒ
06:56
countries can be different in so many different ways
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ู‚ุฏ ุชูƒูˆู† ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ุนุฏูŠุฏ ุงู„ุงุฎุชู„ุงูุงุช ุงู„ุฃุฎุฑู‰ ุจูŠู† ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุฏู‘ูˆู„
06:58
that it's very, very difficult sometimes to account for all of these possible differences.
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ูˆู…ู† ุงู„ุตู‘ุนุจ ุฌุฏู‘ุง ุฃุฎุฐ ูƒู„ู‘ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุงุฎุชู„ุงูุงุช ุงู„ู…ู…ูƒู†ุฉ ุจุนูŠู† ุงู„ุงุนุชุจุงุฑ.
07:03
What I'm going to show you, though, is something that I've been engaging in for a year,
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ู„ูƒู† ู…ุง ุณุฃุฑูŠูƒู… ุงู„ุขู†ุŒ ู‡ูˆ ุฃู…ุฑ ูƒู†ุช ู…ู†ุบู…ุณุง ููŠ ุงู„ู‚ูŠุงู… ุจู‡ ุทูŠู„ุฉ ุณู†ุฉ ูƒุงู…ู„ุฉุŒ
07:07
which is trying to gather all of the largest datasets
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ูˆู‡ูˆ ู…ุญุงูˆู„ุฉ ุฌู…ุน ูƒู„ู‘ ุฃูƒุจุฑ ู‚ูˆุงุนุฏ ุงู„ุจูŠุงู†ุงุช
07:09
that we have access to as economists,
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ุงู„ุชูŠ ู„ู†ุง ุงู„ุญู‚ู‘ ููŠ ุงู„ุญุตูˆู„ ุนู„ูŠู‡ุง ูƒุฎุจุฑุงุก ุงู‚ุชุตุงุฏ.
07:11
and I'm going to try and strip away all of those possible differences,
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ุณุฃุญุงูˆู„ ูุญุต ูƒู„ู‘ ุงุฎุชู„ุงู ู…ู…ูƒู†ุŒ
07:15
hoping to get this relationship to break.
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ู…ุญุงูˆู„ุง ูƒุณุฑ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุตู‘ู„ุฉ.
07:18
And just in summary, no matter how far I push this, I can't get it to break.
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ุงู„ุฎู„ุงุตุฉ ุฃู†ู‘ู†ูŠ ู…ู‡ู…ุง ุญุงูˆู„ุชุŒ ู„ู… ุฃุชู…ูƒู‘ู† ู…ู† ูƒุณุฑู‡ุง.
07:23
Let me show you how far you can do that.
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ุฏุนูˆู†ูŠ ุฃุฑูŠูƒู… ุฅู„ู‰ ุงูŠู‘ ุญุฏู‘ ูŠู…ูƒู†ู†ุง ุงู„ูˆุตูˆู„.
07:24
One way to imagine that is I gather large datasets from around the world.
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ู„ุชุฎูŠู‘ู„ ุฐู„ูƒุŒ ุฌู…ุนุช ุฃูƒุจุฑ ุงู„ู‚ูˆุงุนุฏ ุงู„ุจูŠุงู†ูŠู‘ุฉ ู…ู† ูƒู„ู‘ ุฃู†ุญุงุก ุงู„ุนุงู„ู….
07:29
So for example, there is the Survey of Health, [Aging] and Retirement in Europe.
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ุนู„ู‰ ุณุจูŠู„ ุงู„ู…ุซุงู„ุŒ ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ู…ุณุญ ู„ู„ุตู‘ุญุฉุŒ ุงู„ุดู‘ูŠุฎูˆุฎุฉ ูˆ ุงู„ุชู‘ู‚ุงุนุฏ ุจุฃูˆุฑูˆุจุง.
07:33
From this dataset you actually learn that retired European families
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ู…ู† ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุจูŠุงู†ุงุชุŒ ูŠู…ูƒู†ูƒ ุฃู† ุชุนุฑู ุฃู†ู‘ ุงู„ุนุงุฆู„ุงุช ุงู„ุฃูˆุฑูˆุจูŠู‘ุฉ ุงู„ู…ุชู‚ุงุนุฏุฉ
07:37
are extremely patient with survey takers.
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ูƒุงู†ุช ุตุจูˆุฑุฉ ุฌุฏู‘ุง ู…ุน ุงู„ู‚ุงุฆู…ูŠู† ุจุงู„ู…ุณุญ.
07:39
(Laughter)
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(ุถุญูƒ)
07:41
So imagine that you're a retired household in Belgium and someone comes to your front door.
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ุชุฎูŠู‘ู„ ุฃู†ู‘ูƒ ู…ุชู‚ุงุนุฏ ุจู…ู†ุฒู„ูƒ ุจุจู„ุฌูŠูƒุงุŒ ูˆ ุฃุญุฏู‡ู… ูŠุฏู‚ู‘ ุจุงุจูƒ.
07:45
"Excuse me, would you mind if I peruse your stock portfolio?
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"ุนููˆุงุŒ ู‡ู„ ุชู…ุงู†ุน ุฅู† ู‚ู…ุช ุจุชุชุจู‘ุน ู…ุฌู…ูˆุนุฉ ุฃุณู‡ู…ูƒุŸ
07:50
Do you happen to know how much your house is worth? Do you mind telling me?
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ู‡ู„ ุชุนู„ู… ู…ุง ู‚ูŠู…ุฉ ู…ู†ุฒู„ูƒุŸ ู‡ู„ ุชู…ุงู†ุน ุฅุฎุจุงุฑูŠุŸ
07:54
Would you happen to have a hallway that's more than 10 meters long?
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ู‡ู„ ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ุฑูˆุงู‚ ุจู…ู†ุฒู„ูƒ ูŠุชุฌุงูˆุฒ ุทูˆู„ู‡ ุงู„ุนุดุฑุฉ ุฃู…ุชุงุฑุŸ
07:57
If you do, would you mind if I timed how long it took you to walk down that hallway?
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ุฅู† ูƒุงู† ู„ุฏูŠูƒุŒ ู‡ู„ ุชู…ุงู†ุน ุฅู† ู‚ู…ุช ุจุญุณุงุจ ุงู„ู…ุฏู‘ุฉ ุงู„ุชูŠ ุชุณุชุบุฑู‚ู‡ุง ู„ู…ุฑูˆุฑู‡ุŸ
08:01
Would you mind squeezing as hard as you can, in your dominant hand, this device
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ู‡ู„ ุชู…ุงู†ุน ุงู„ุฅู…ุณุงูƒ ุจูŠุฏูƒ ุจู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุฃุฏุงุฉ ุจุฃู‚ุตู‰ ู‚ูˆู‘ุชูƒ
08:05
so I can measure your grip strength?
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ูƒูŠ ุฃู‚ูˆู„ ุจู‚ูŠุงุณ ู‚ูˆู‘ุฉ ู‚ุจุถุชูƒุŸ
08:07
How about blowing into this tube so I can measure your lung capacity?"
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ู…ุง ุฑุฃูŠูƒ ููŠ ุงู„ู†ู‘ูุฎ ุนุจุฑ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ุฃู†ุจูˆุจ ุญุชู‘ู‰ ุฃู‚ูŠุณ ู‚ุฏุฑุชูƒ ุงู„ุฑู‘ุฆูˆูŠู‘ุฉุŸ"
08:11
The survey takes over a day.
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ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู…ุณุญ ูŠุณุชุบุฑู‚ ูŠูˆู…ุง ูƒุงู…ู„ุง.
08:14
(Laughter)
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(ุถุญูƒ)
08:15
Combine that with a Demographic and Health Survey
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ู†ู‚ูˆู… ุจุฌู…ุน ุฐู„ูƒ ู…ุน ุงู„ู…ุณุญ ุงู„ุฏู‘ูŠู…ุบุฑุงููŠ ูˆ ุงู„ุตู‘ุญูŠ ุงู„ุฐูŠ
08:19
collected by USAID in developing countries in Africa, for example,
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ู‚ุงู…ุช ุจู‡ ุงู„ูˆูƒุงู„ุฉ ุงู„ุฃู…ุฑูŠูƒูŠุฉ ู„ู„ุชู‘ู†ู…ูŠุฉ ุงู„ุฏูˆู„ูŠุฉ ููŠ ุงู„ุฏู‘ูˆู„ ุงู„ู†ู‘ุงู…ูŠุฉ ุงู„ุงูุฑูŠู‚ูŠู‘ุฉุŒ
08:23
which that survey actually can go so far as to directly measure the HIV status
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ุชู…ุงุฏู‰ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู…ุณุญ ุฅู„ู‰ ู‚ูŠุงู…ู‡ ุจูุญุต ูˆุฌูˆุฏ ููŠุฑูˆุณ ุงู„ุงูŠุฏุฒ
08:29
of families living in, for example, rural Nigeria.
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ู„ู„ุนุงุฆู„ุงุช ุงู„ุชูŠ ุชุนูŠุด ู…ุซู„ุง ููŠ ุฃุฑูŠุงู ู†ูŠุฌูŠุฑูŠุง.
08:32
Combine that with a world value survey,
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ู†ุฌู…ุน ุฐู„ูƒ ุจู…ุณุญ ุนุงู„ู…ูŠู‘ุŒ
08:34
which measures the political opinions and, fortunately for me, the savings behaviors
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ุงู„ุฐูŠ ู‚ุงู… ุจุญุณุงุจ ุงู„ุขุฑุงุก ุงู„ุณูŠุงุณูŠู‘ุฉุŒ ูˆ ู„ุญุณู† ุญุธู‘ูŠุŒ ุณู„ูˆูƒุงุช ุงู„ุงุฏู‘ุฎุงุฑ
08:38
of millions of families in hundreds of countries around the world.
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ู„ุขู„ุงู ุงู„ุนุงุฆู„ุงุช ุจู…ุฆุงุช ุงู„ุฏู‘ูˆู„ ุญูˆู„ ุงู„ุนุงู„ู….
08:43
Take all of that data, combine it, and this map is what you get.
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ู†ุฌู…ุน ูƒู„ู‘ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุจูŠุงู†ุงุช ู…ุนุงุŒ ูˆ ุงู„ู†ู‘ุชูŠุฌุฉ ู‡ูŠ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุฎุฑูŠุทุฉ.
08:47
What you find is nine countries around the world
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ู…ุง ู†ุฌุฏู‡ ู‡ูˆ 9 ุฏูˆู„ ุจุงู„ุนุงู„ู…
08:49
that have significant native populations
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ู„ู‡ุง ุนุฏุฏ ูƒุจูŠุฑ ู…ู† ุงู„ุณู‘ูƒุงู† ุงู„ุฐูŠู†
08:51
which speak both futureless and futured languages.
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ูŠุชุญุฏู‘ุซูˆู† ู†ูˆุนูŠุชูŠ ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุงุช ุงู„ุชูŠ ุจู‡ุง ูˆ ู„ูŠุณ ุจู‡ุง ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„.
08:56
And what I'm going to do is form statistical matched pairs
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ุณุฃู‚ูˆู… ุจุชุดูƒูŠู„ ุฃุฒูˆุงุฌ ู…ู† ุงู„ุจูŠุงู†ุงุช ุงู„ู…ุชู…ุงุซู„ุฉ
08:59
between families that are nearly identical on every dimension that I can measure,
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ุจูŠู† ุงู„ุนุงุฆุงุช ุงู„ุชูŠ ุชุชุทุงุจู‚ ุชู‚ุฑูŠุจุง ููŠ ูƒู„ู‘ ุงู„ุฃุจุนุงุฏ ุงู„ุชูŠ ูŠู…ูƒู†ู†ูŠ ู‚ูŠุงุณู‡ุงุŒ
09:05
and then I'm going to explore whether or not the link between language and savings holds
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ุซู…ู‘ ุณุฃู‚ูˆู… ุจุงูƒุชุดุงู ู…ุง ุฅู† ูƒุงู† ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ุฑุงุจุท ุจูŠู† ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุฉ ูˆ ุณูŠุงุณุฉ ุงู„ุงุฏู‘ุฎุงุฑ ู„ุฏูŠู‡ู…
09:08
even after controlling for all of these levels.
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ุญุชู‘ู‰ ุจุนุฏ ุญุฐู ุชุฃุซูŠุฑุงุช ุจู‚ูŠู‘ุฉ ุงู„ุฃุจุนุงุฏ ุงู„ุฃุฎุฑู‰.
09:12
What are the characteristics we can control for?
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ู…ุง ู‡ูŠ ุงู„ุฎุงุตู‘ูŠุงุช ุงู„ุชูŠ ุจุงู…ูƒุงู†ู†ุง ุงู„ุณูŠุทุฑุฉ ุนู„ูŠู‡ุงุŸ
09:14
Well I'm going to match families on country of birth and residence,
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ุณุฃู‚ูˆู… ุจุฌู…ุน ุงู„ุนุงุฆู„ุงุช ุญุณุจ ุงู„ุจู„ุฏ ุงู„ุฐูŠ ูˆู„ุฏูˆุง ููŠู‡ุŒ ูˆ ุจู„ุฏ ุงู„ุฅู‚ุงู…ุฉุŒ
09:17
the demographics -- what sex, their age --
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ุญุณุจ ู…ุนู„ูˆู…ุงุช ุฏูŠู…ูˆุบุฑุงููŠู‘ุฉ -- ุงู„ุฌู†ุณุŒ ุงู„ุณู†ู‘ --
09:19
their income level within their own country,
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ู…ุณุชูˆู‰ ุฏุฎู„ู‡ู… ููŠ ุจู„ุฏู‡ู…ุŒ
09:21
their educational achievement, a lot about their family structure.
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ู…ุณุชูˆุงู‡ู… ุงู„ุชู‘ุนู„ูŠู…ูŠุŒ ูˆ ุงู„ูƒุซูŠุฑ ุญูˆู„ ุชุฑูƒูŠุจุฉ ุงู„ุนุงุฆู„ุฉ.
09:24
It turns out there are six different ways to be married in Europe.
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ุงุชู‘ุถุญ ุฃู†ู‘ ู‡ู†ุงูƒ 6 ุทุฑู‚ ู…ุฎุชู„ูุฉ ู„ู„ุฒู‘ูˆุงุฌ ููŠ ุฃูˆุฑูˆุจุง.
09:28
And most granularly, I break them down by religion
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ู‚ู…ุช ุจุชูุตูŠู„ู‡ุง ุญุณุจ ุงู„ุฏู‘ูŠู†ุŒ
09:32
where there are 72 categories of religions in the world --
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ูˆ ุนู„ู‰ ููƒุฑุฉุŒ ู‡ู†ุงูƒ 72 ุตู†ูุง ู…ู† ุงู„ุฃุฏูŠุงู† ููŠ ุงู„ุนุงู„ู… --
09:35
so an extreme level of granularity.
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ู„ุฐู„ูƒ ูุฅู†ู‘ ู…ุณุชูˆู‰ ุงู„ุชู‘ูุตูŠู„ ูƒุงู† ู…ุชุดุฏู‘ุฏุง.
09:37
There are 1.4 billion different ways that a family can find itself.
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ู‡ู†ุงูƒ 1.4 ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑ ุทุฑูŠู‚ุฉ ู…ุฎุชู„ูุฉ ูŠู…ูƒู† ุฃู† ุชูƒูˆู† ุนู„ูŠู‡ุง ุงู„ุนุงุฆู„ุฉ.
09:41
Now effectively everything I'm going to tell you from now on
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ูƒู„ู‘ ู…ุง ุณุฃู‚ูˆู„ู‡ ู…ู† ู‡ู†ุง ูุตุงุนุฏุง
09:46
is only comparing these basically nearly identical families.
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ูŠู‚ุงุฑู† ูู‚ุท ุงู„ุนุงุฆู„ุงุช ุงู„ู…ุชู…ุงุซู„ุฉ ุชู‚ุฑูŠุจุง.
09:49
It's getting as close as possible to the thought experiment
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ุงู„ุฃู…ุฑ ูŠู‚ุชุฑุจ ุจุดุฏู‘ุฉ ู…ู† ุชู„ูƒ ุงู„ุชู‘ุฌุฑุจุฉ
09:51
of finding two families both of whom live in Brussels
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ุญูŠุซ ูŠุชู…ู‘ ุฅูŠุฌุงุฏ ุนุงุฆู„ุชูŠู† ุชุนูŠุดุงู† ููŠ ุจุฑูˆูƒุณูŠู„
09:54
who are identical on every single one of these dimensions,
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ูˆ ุชุชุทุงุจู‚ุงู† ููŠ ูƒู„ู‘ ุงู„ุฃูˆุฌู‡ุŒ ู„ูƒู†
09:57
but one of whom speaks Flemish and one of whom speaks French;
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ุฃุญุฏู‡ู…ุง ุชุชุญุฏู‘ุซ ุงู„ู‡ูˆู„ู†ุฏูŠู‘ุฉ ูˆ ุงู„ุฃุฎุฑู‰ ุชุชุญุฏู‘ุซ ุงู„ูุฑู†ุณูŠู‘ุฉุ›
10:00
or two families that live in a rural district in Nigeria,
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ุฃูˆ ุนุงุฆู„ุชูŠู† ุชุนูŠุดุงู† ุจุฑูŠู ู†ูŠุฌูŠุฑูŠุง
10:03
one of whom speaks Hausa and one of whom speaks Igbo.
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ูˆ ุฃุญุฏู‡ู…ุง ุชุชุญุฏู‘ุซ ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุฉ ุงู„ู‡ูˆุณูŠู‘ุฉุŒ ูˆ ุงู„ุฃุฎุฑู‰ ู„ุบุฉ ุงู„ุฅุบุจูˆ.
10:07
Now even after all of this granular level of control,
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ููŠ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู…ุฑุญู„ุฉ ู…ู† ุงู„ุชู‘ุฌุฒุฆุฉุŒ ู‡ู„ ูŠุจุฏูˆ ุฃู†ู‘
10:11
do futureless language speakers seem to save more?
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ู†ุงุทู‚ูŠ ู„ุบุฉ ู„ูŠุณ ุจู‡ุง ุตูŠุบุฉ ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ ู‚ุงุฏุฑูˆู† ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุงุฏู‘ุฎุงุฑ ุฃูƒุซุฑุŸ
10:14
Yes, futureless language speakers, even after this level of control,
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ู†ุนู…ุŒ ู…ู† ูŠุชูƒู„ู‘ู…ูˆู† ุจู„ุบุฉ ู„ูŠุณ ุจู‡ุง ุตูŠุบุฉ ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„
10:17
are 30 percent more likely to report having saved in any given year.
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ู„ู‡ู… ุงุญุชู…ุงู„ ุฃู† ูŠุฏู‘ุฎุฑูˆุง 30% ุฃูƒุซุฑ ู…ู† ุบูŠุฑู‡ู… ููŠ ุฃูŠู‘ ุณู†ุฉ.
10:21
Does this have cumulative effects?
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ู‡ู„ ู„ุฐู„ูƒ ุชุฃุซูŠุฑุงุช ุชุฑุงูƒู…ูŠู‘ุฉุŸ
10:23
Yes, by the time they retire, futureless language speakers, holding constant their income,
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ู†ุนู…ุŒ ุนู†ุฏ ู‚ุฏูˆู… ูˆู‚ุช ุชู‚ุงุนุฏู‡ู…ุŒ ู…ุชุญุฏู‘ุซูˆ ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุงุช ุงู„ุชูŠ ู„ูŠุณ ุจู‡ุง ุตูŠุบุฉ ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„
10:27
are going to retire with 25 percent more in savings.
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ุณูŠุชู‚ุงุนุฏูˆู† ู…ุน 25% ุฃูƒุซุฑ ุฃู…ูˆุงู„ ุจู…ุฏู‘ุฎุฑุงุชู‡ู….
10:30
Can we push this data even further?
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ู‡ู„ ูŠู…ูƒู†ู†ุง ุฏูุน ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุจูŠุงู†ุงุช ุฅู„ู‰ ู…ุณุชูˆู‰ ุฃุนู„ู‰ุŸ
10:33
Yes, because I just told you, we actually collect a lot of health data as economists.
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ู†ุนู…ุŒ ูƒู…ุง ุฃุฎุจุฑุชูƒู…ุŒ ู†ุญู† ุฎุจุฑุงุก ุงู„ุงู‚ุชุตุงุฏ ู†ุฌู…ุน ุงู„ุจูŠุงู†ุงุช ุงู„ุตุญูŠุฉ.
10:38
Now how can we think about health behaviors to think about savings?
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ุชุชุณุงุกู„ูˆู† ู…ุง ุฏุฎู„ ุงู„ุจูŠุงู†ุงุช ุงู„ุตุญูŠุฉ ููŠ ุงู„ู…ุฏู‘ุฎุฑุงุชุŸ
10:42
Well, think about smoking, for example.
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ุญุณู†ุงุŒ ููƒู‘ุฑูˆุง ููŠ ุงู„ุชู‘ุฏุฎูŠู† ู…ุซู„ุง.
10:45
Smoking is in some deep sense negative savings.
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ุงู„ุชู‘ุฏุฎูŠู† ูŠู…ุซู‘ู„ ุงุฏู‘ุฎุงุฑุง ุณู„ุจูŠู‘ุง ู†ูˆุนุง ู…ุง.
10:48
If savings is current pain in exchange for future pleasure,
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ุฅู† ูƒุงู† ุงู„ุงุฏู‘ุฎุงุฑ ุฃู„ู…ุง ููŠ ุงู„ุญุงุถุฑ ู…ู‚ุงุจู„ ู…ุชุนุฉ ููŠ ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ุŒ
10:52
smoking is just the opposite.
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ูุฅู†ู‘ ุงู„ุชู‘ุฏุฎูŠู† ู‡ูˆ ุงู„ุนูƒุณ ุชู…ุงู…ุง.
10:53
It's current pleasure in exchange for future pain.
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ู‡ูˆ ู…ุชุนุฉ ุญุงู„ูŠู‘ุฉ ู…ู‚ุงุจู„ ุฃู„ู… ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ูŠู‘.
10:56
What we should expect then is the opposite effect.
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ู…ุง ู†ุชูˆู‚ู‘ุนู‡ ุฅุฐู† ู‡ูˆ ุชุฃุซูŠุฑ ู…ุนุงูƒุณ.
10:59
And that's exactly what we find.
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ูˆู‡ูˆ ุชู…ุงู…ุง ู…ุง ู†ุฌุฏ.
11:01
Futureless language speakers are 20 to 24 percent less likely
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ู…ุชุญุฏู‘ุซูˆ ุงู„ู„ู‘ุบุงุช ุงู„ุชูŠ ู„ูŠุณุช ุจู‡ุง ุตูŠุบุฉ ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ ู„ู‡ู… ุงุญุชู…ุงู„ 20% ุฅู„ู‰ 40% ุฃู†
11:04
to be smoking at any given point in time compared to identical families,
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ูŠูƒูˆู†ูˆุง ุฃู‚ู„ู‘ ุชุฏุฎูŠู†ุง ู…ู‚ุงุฑู†ุฉ ุจุนุงุฆู„ุงุช ู…ุชุทุงุจู‚ุฉ ู…ุนู‡ุงุŒ
11:08
and they're going to be 13 to 17 percent less likely
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ูˆ ุณูŠูƒูˆู† ู„ู‡ู… ุงุญุชู…ุงู„ ุฃู‚ู„ู‘ ุจ13 ุฅู„ู‰ 17%
11:11
to be obese by the time they retire,
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ุฃู† ุชุตูŠุจู‡ู… ุงู„ุจุฏุงู†ุฉ ุนู†ุฏ ุชู‚ุงุนุฏู‡ู…ุŒ
11:13
and they're going to report being 21 percent more likely
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ูˆุณูŠูƒูˆู†ูˆู† ู„ู‡ู… ุงุญุชู…ุงู„ ุฃูƒุจุฑ ุจู€21% ุฃู† ูŠูƒูˆู†ูˆุง
11:15
to have used a condom in their last sexual encounter.
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ู‚ุฏ ุงุณุชุนู…ู„ูˆุง ูˆุงู‚ูŠุง ุฐูƒุฑูŠู‘ุง ุฃุซู†ุงุก ุขุฎุฑ ู…ุฑู‘ุฉ ู…ุงุฑุณูˆุง ููŠู‡ุง ุงู„ุฌู†ุณ.
11:18
I could go on and on with the list of differences that you can find.
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ุฃุณุชุทูŠุน ุงู„ู…ูˆุงุตู„ุฉ ุทูˆูŠู„ุง ู…ุนุฏู‘ุฏุง ุงู„ุงุฎุชู„ุงูุงุช ุงู„ุฃุฎุฑู‰ ุงู„ุชูŠ ูŠู…ูƒู†ูƒ ุฅูŠุฌุงุฏู‡ุง.
11:21
It's almost impossible not to find a savings behavior
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ุฅู†ู‘ู‡ ุชู‚ุฑูŠุจุง ุฃู…ุฑ ู…ุณุชุญูŠู„ ุฃู† ู„ุง ุชุฌุฏ ุณู„ูˆูƒุง ุงุฏู‘ุฎุงุฑูŠู‘ุง
11:25
for which this strong effect isn't present.
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ุบูŠุฑ ู…ุชุฃุซู‘ุฑ ุจู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ุนุงู…ู„.
11:28
My linguistics and economics colleagues at Yale and I are just starting to do this work
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ุฃู†ุง ูˆ ุฒู…ู„ุงุฆูŠ ู…ู† ุงู„ุงู‚ุชุตุงุฏูŠูŠู† ูˆุงู„ู„ู‘ุบูˆูŠู‘ูŠู† ุจุฌุงู…ุนุฉ ูŠุงู„ ุจุฏุฃู†ุง ู„ุชูˆู‘ู†ุง ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ุฃุณุจูˆุน
11:32
and really explore and understand the ways that these subtle nudges
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ุงู„ุนู…ู„ ุนู„ู‰ ุงูƒุชุดุงู ูˆ ูู‡ู… ูƒูŠููŠู‘ุฉ ุชุฃุซูŠุฑ ู…ุซู„ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุถุบูˆุทุงุช ุงู„ุตู‘ุบูŠุฑุฉ
11:37
cause us to think more or less about the future every single time we speak.
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ุนู„ู‰ ุทุฑูŠู‚ุฉ ุชููƒูŠุฑู†ุง ุจุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ ูƒู„ู‘ ู…ุฑู‘ุฉ ู†ุชุญุฏู‘ุซ ููŠู‡ุง.
11:43
Ultimately, the goal,
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ู‡ุฏูู†ุง ุงู„ู†ู‡ุงุฆูŠู‘ ู‡ูˆุŒ
11:45
once we understand how these subtle effects can change our decision making,
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ู…ุง ุฅู† ู†ูู‡ู… ุทุฑูŠู‚ุฉ ุชุฃุซูŠุฑ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุถู‘ุบูˆุทุงุช ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ู‚ุฑุงุฑุงุช ุงู„ุชูŠ ู†ุชู‘ุฎุฐู‡ุงุŒ
11:49
we want to be able to provide people tools
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ู†ุฑุบุจ ููŠ ุชูˆููŠุฑ ูˆุณุงุฆู„ ู„ู„ู†ู‘ุงุณ
11:52
so that they can consciously make themselves better savers
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ู‚ุงุฏุฑุฉ ุนู„ู‰ ุฌุนู„ู‡ู… ู…ุฏู‘ุฎุฑูŠู† ุฃูุถู„ ุงุฏุฑุงูƒูŠู‘ุง
11:55
and more conscious investors in their own future.
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ูˆ ู…ุณุชุซู…ุฑูŠู† ุฃูƒุซุฑ ูˆุนูŠุง ููŠ ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„.
11:58
Thank you very much.
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ุดูƒุฑุง ุฌุฒูŠู„ุง ู„ูƒู….
12:01
(Applause)
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(ุชุตููŠู‚)
ุญูˆู„ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู…ูˆู‚ุน

ุณูŠู‚ุฏู… ู„ูƒ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู…ูˆู‚ุน ู…ู‚ุงุทุน ููŠุฏูŠูˆ YouTube ุงู„ู…ููŠุฏุฉ ู„ุชุนู„ู… ุงู„ู„ุบุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ. ุณุชุฑู‰ ุฏุฑูˆุณ ุงู„ู„ุบุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ ุงู„ุชูŠ ูŠุชู… ุชุฏุฑูŠุณู‡ุง ู…ู† ู‚ุจู„ ู…ุฏุฑุณูŠู† ู…ู† ุงู„ุฏุฑุฌุฉ ุงู„ุฃูˆู„ู‰ ู…ู† ุฌู…ูŠุน ุฃู†ุญุงุก ุงู„ุนุงู„ู…. ุงู†ู‚ุฑ ู†ู‚ุฑู‹ุง ู…ุฒุฏูˆุฌู‹ุง ููˆู‚ ุงู„ุชุฑุฌู…ุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ ุงู„ู…ุนุฑูˆุถุฉ ุนู„ู‰ ูƒู„ ุตูุญุฉ ููŠุฏูŠูˆ ู„ุชุดุบูŠู„ ุงู„ููŠุฏูŠูˆ ู…ู† ู‡ู†ุงูƒ. ูŠุชู… ุชู…ุฑูŠุฑ ุงู„ุชุฑุฌู…ุงุช ุจุงู„ุชุฒุงู…ู† ู…ุน ุชุดุบูŠู„ ุงู„ููŠุฏูŠูˆ. ุฅุฐุง ูƒุงู† ู„ุฏูŠูƒ ุฃูŠ ุชุนู„ูŠู‚ุงุช ุฃูˆ ุทู„ุจุงุช ุŒ ูŠุฑุฌู‰ ุงู„ุงุชุตุงู„ ุจู†ุง ุจุงุณุชุฎุฏุงู… ู†ู…ูˆุฐุฌ ุงู„ุงุชุตุงู„ ู‡ุฐุง.

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