The jobs we'll lose to machines -- and the ones we won't | Anthony Goldbloom

譯者: Harry Chen 審譯者: 易帆 余

So this is my niece.

這是我的姪女，

Her name is Yahli.

她的名字是雅莉，

She is nine months old.

她現在九個月大，

Her mum is a doctor, and her dad is a lawyer.

媽媽是位醫生、爸爸是位律師；

By the time Yahli goes to college,

不過等到她上大學的時候

the jobs her parents do are going to look dramatically different.

她父母親的工作將會迥然不同了。

In 2013, researchers at Oxford University did a study on the future of work.

2013年，牛津大學的研究人員 做了一個對未來工作的研究，

They concluded that almost one in every two jobs have a high risk

他們得出結論：差不多將近一半的工作

of being automated by machines.

都有被機器自動化取代的危險。

Machine learning is the technology

而「機器學習」

that's responsible for most of this disruption.

要對這種顛覆負主要的責任。

It's the most powerful branch of artificial intelligence.

它是人工智慧最呼風喚雨的分支，

It allows machines to learn from data

它讓機器得以從數據中學習，

and mimic some of the things that humans can do.

並模仿一些人類可以做到的事情。

My company, Kaggle, operates on the cutting edge of machine learning.

我的公司「Kaggle」算是能操控 機器學習的尖端科技公司。

We bring together hundreds of thousands of experts

我們召集了成千上萬的專家

to solve important problems for industry and academia.

為產、學界解決重要的難題。

This gives us a unique perspective on what machines can do,

所以我們可以從獨特的角度 來觀察機器可以做什麽、

what they can't do

不可以做什麽。

and what jobs they might automate or threaten.

哪些工作可以被自動化或者受到威脅。

Machine learning started making its way into industry in the early '90s.

機器學習是在90年代初 進入產業界的，

It started with relatively simple tasks.

一開始，它只是執行一些 簡單的任務。

It started with things like assessing credit risk from loan applications,

像評估貸款申請的信用風險、

sorting the mail by reading handwritten characters from zip codes.

查看郵遞區號的手寫字碼 來分類郵件。

Over the past few years, we have made dramatic breakthroughs.

過去幾年來我們已經做出 多項重大的突破，

Machine learning is now capable of far, far more complex tasks.

機器學習現在已經可以完成 非常覆雜的任務。

In 2012, Kaggle challenged its community

在 2012 年 Kaggle 給自家社群出了一道難題，

to build an algorithm that could grade high-school essays.

要大家設計出一個演算法 來評判高中作文。

The winning algorithms were able to match the grades

獲勝的演算法給出的分數居然 和真正老師給出的分數相符

given by human teachers.

去年，我們出了一道更難的題目：

Last year, we issued an even more difficult challenge.

Can you take images of the eye and diagnose an eye disease

你可不可以藉由眼球的影像

診斷出一種叫「糖尿病視網膜病變」的眼疾？

called diabetic retinopathy?

Again, the winning algorithms were able to match the diagnoses

果然，獲勝的演算法給出的診斷

可以和人類眼科醫師的診斷相媲美。

given by human ophthalmologists.

Now, given the right data, machines are going to outperform humans

只要給定正確的數據 ， 機器在類似的任務中

at tasks like this.

將完全超越人類。

A teacher might read 10,000 essays over a 40-year career.

一位老師，在他的40年職業生涯中 也許只能審閱10000篇作文

An ophthalmologist might see 50,000 eyes.

一名眼科醫生，大概可以看50,000隻眼睛

A machine can read millions of essays or see millions of eyes

但一部機器可以在短短幾分鐘內 讀完上百萬篇文章

within minutes.

或是看完上百萬顆眼睛。

We have no chance of competing against machines

在頻繁、大批量的任務上 我們無法與機器抗衡。

on frequent, high-volume tasks.

But there are things we can do that machines can't do.

不過還是有我們能做 而機器做不到的事情，

Where machines have made very little progress

機器在解決複雜的新情況方面

is in tackling novel situations.

進展甚微。

They can't handle things they haven't seen many times before.

它們對還沒看到很多次的事情無法掌握。

The fundamental limitations of machine learning

機器學習的先天限制就是：

is that it needs to learn from large volumes of past data.

它需要從大量的過往資料中學習。

Now, humans don't.

人類就不一樣了，

We have the ability to connect seemingly disparate threads

我們有一種能把看似毫不相關的事物 聯系起來的能力，

to solve problems we've never seen before.

從而解決我們先前還不曾見過的難題。

Percy Spencer was a physicist working on radar during World War II,

波西‧史賓塞是二次世界大戰期間， 從事雷達研究的物理學家，

when he noticed the magnetron was melting his chocolate bar.

當他注意到磁控管不斷融化 他的巧克力棒時，

He was able to connect his understanding of electromagnetic radiation

他能夠把他對電磁波的認知

with his knowledge of cooking

與烹飪的知識做結合，

in order to invent -- any guesses? -- the microwave oven.

因此發明了--各位猜猜是什麽？ 微波爐。

Now, this is a particularly remarkable example of creativity.

這是個特別傑出的創新例子

But this sort of cross-pollination happens for each of us in small ways

但是這種跨領域的碰撞，

每天在我們的周遭會上演好幾千回。

thousands of times per day.

Machines cannot compete with us

在解決新的棘手問題方面 機器無法與我們媲美，

when it comes to tackling novel situations,

and this puts a fundamental limit on the human tasks

而這使機器自動化取代人工

that machines will automate.

受到了限制。

So what does this mean for the future of work?

那麽這對未來的工作意味著什麽呢？

The future state of any single job lies in the answer to a single question:

未來工作的狀態完全取決於一個問題：

To what extent is that job reducible to frequent, high-volume tasks,

「該工作有多少程度可以縮減成 經常性、高產量的任務，

and to what extent does it involve tackling novel situations?

以及有多少程度是在解決新的棘手問題？」

On frequent, high-volume tasks, machines are getting smarter and smarter.

對於那些頻繁，大批量的任務， 機器變得越來越聰明。

Today they grade essays. They diagnose certain diseases.

今天它們能給作文打分數、 診斷特定疾病，

Over coming years, they're going to conduct our audits,

過了幾年後，它們將可以進行審計、

and they're going to read boilerplate from legal contracts.

從法律合約中解讀法律語言。

Accountants and lawyers are still needed.

盡管會計師和律師還是需要的

They're going to be needed for complex tax structuring,

但僅能研究覆雜的稅務結構及 無例可循的法律問題，

for pathbreaking litigation.

But machines will shrink their ranks

不過機器將會減少他們的就業機會， 增加就業難度。

and make these jobs harder to come by.

Now, as mentioned,

如同我說過的：

machines are not making progress on novel situations.

機器在處理複雜的新情境上 沒有進步！

The copy behind a marketing campaign needs to grab consumers' attention.

行銷推案的文宣必須擄獲消費者的青睞，

It has to stand out from the crowd.

它必須脫俗出眾。

Business strategy means finding gaps in the market,

商業策略必須在市場上找到一些

things that nobody else is doing.

其它人還沒開始做的領域。

It will be humans that are creating the copy behind our marketing campaigns,

人類才是營銷文案的創造者，

and it will be humans that are developing our business strategy.

人類才是商業戰略的拓展人

So Yahli, whatever you decide to do,

所以，雅莉，不管妳決定要做什麼，

let every day bring you a new challenge.

讓每一天帶給妳新的挑戰，

If it does, then you will stay ahead of the machines.

如果是這樣，那麼妳將永遠領先機器一步。

Thank you.

謝謝大家！

(Applause)

（掌聲）