Max Little: A test for Parkinson's with a phone call

115,001 views ・ 2012-08-07

TED


請雙擊下方英文字幕播放視頻。

00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
0
0
7000
譯者: Yuguo Zhang 審譯者: Wang-Ju Tsai
00:15
So, well, I do applied math,
1
15927
2103
嗯.我是做應用數學的
00:18
and this is a peculiar problem
2
18030
1524
而對於任何做應用數學的人來說,
00:19
for anyone who does applied math, is that
3
19554
2173
我們就像是
00:21
we are like management consultants.
4
21727
1933
管理的諮詢師
00:23
No one knows what the hell we do.
5
23660
1946
沒人知道我們到底幹什麼
00:25
So I am going to give you some -- attempt today
6
25606
2274
因此呢我準備試試
00:27
to try and explain to you what I do.
7
27880
2293
向你解釋一下我幹什麼
00:30
So, dancing is one of the most human of activities.
8
30173
3321
舞蹈可以說是最具人類化的活動了
00:33
We delight at ballet virtuosos and tap dancers
9
33494
3682
我們都喜歡芭蕾舞蹈和踢踏舞
00:37
you will see later on.
10
37176
1148
你一會兒會看到的
00:38
Now, ballet requires an extraordinary level of expertise
11
38324
2690
芭蕾要求很高的專業技巧
00:41
and a high level of skill,
12
41014
2914
和很高的技術水準
00:43
and probably a level of initial suitability
13
43928
2531
甚至還需要一些天賦
00:46
that may well have a genetic component to it.
14
46459
1847
因此跟你的基因組成也有關
00:48
Now, sadly, neurological disorders such as Parkinson's disease
15
48306
3393
不過可惜的是,像帕金森癥這樣的神經系統疾病
00:51
gradually destroy this extraordinary ability,
16
51699
2087
會慢慢的毀滅這樣的能力
00:53
as it is doing to my friend Jan Stripling, who was
17
53786
2323
就像發生在我一位跳芭蕾舞的朋友,
00:56
a virtuoso ballet dancer in his time.
18
56109
2967
Jan Stripling的身上一樣
00:59
So great progress and treatment has been made over the years.
19
59076
3054
近年來在治療上已經有很多進步和應用了
01:02
However, there are 6.3 million people worldwide
20
62130
2944
但是呢,這世界上有630萬人有帕金森症
01:05
who have the disease, and they have to live with
21
65074
3448
他們每天都得面對
01:08
incurable weakness, tremor, rigidity
22
68522
2568
這無法治愈的虛弱,顫抖,僵硬
01:11
and the other symptoms that go along with the disease,
23
71090
1857
以及其他一些的癥狀
01:12
so what we need are objective tools
24
72947
2383
因此我們需要的是能夠在早期
01:15
to detect the disease before it's too late.
25
75330
3057
就探測到疾病的良好工具
01:18
We need to be able to measure progression objectively,
26
78387
2554
我們需要能夠客觀地測量進程,
01:20
and ultimately, the only way we're going to know
27
80941
3173
並且最終,只有我們有能客觀地測量
01:24
when we actually have a cure is when we have
28
84114
2192
我們才能研究出
01:26
an objective measure that can answer that for sure.
29
86306
3398
能夠治愈帕金森症的方法
01:29
But frustratingly, with Parkinson's disease
30
89704
2850
但是遺憾的是,帕金森症和
01:32
and other movement disorders, there are no biomarkers,
31
92554
2353
其他生理障礙還是沒有一個生物標記
01:34
so there's no simple blood test that you can do,
32
94907
2229
因此不可能做一個簡單的驗血就能查出來
01:37
and the best that we have is like
33
97136
1802
目前我們能做到的只是一個
01:38
this 20-minute neurologist test.
34
98938
2241
20分鐘的神經系統的測試
01:41
You have to go to the clinic to do it. It's very, very costly,
35
101179
2458
你必須去臨床醫院去做,而且十分的貴,
01:43
and that means that, outside the clinical trials,
36
103637
2757
這樣就意味著,除了在臨床試驗中,
01:46
it's just never done. It's never done.
37
106394
2728
我們是不會去做這個測試的
01:49
But what if patients could do this test at home?
38
109122
3077
不過要是病人在家裡能做的話會怎麼樣?
01:52
Now, that would actually save on a difficult trip to the clinic,
39
112199
2098
當然這樣一來他們不必去臨床醫院,對吧?
01:54
and what if patients could do that test themselves, right?
40
114297
4254
而且工作人員寶貴的
01:58
No expensive staff time required.
41
118551
1920
時間也會節省下來
02:00
Takes about $300, by the way,
42
120471
1418
順便提一下,做這個測試要花醫院
02:01
in the neurologist's clinic to do it.
43
121889
1993
大約300美金呢
02:03
So what I want to propose to you as an unconventional way
44
123882
2681
因此我想告訴你一種非傳統的方法
02:06
in which we can try to achieve this,
45
126563
1514
從而達到這個目的
02:08
because, you see, in one sense, at least,
46
128077
1808
因為你可以看到,至少,一定程度上
02:09
we are all virtuosos like my friend Jan Stripling.
47
129885
3256
我們都是像我朋友Jan Stripling一樣的舞蹈家
02:13
So here we have a video of the vibrating vocal folds.
48
133141
3755
我這有一個關於波動聲音的視頻
02:16
Now, this is healthy and this is somebody making speech sounds,
49
136896
3229
這個是健康的而這個是某人在說話的聲音
02:20
and we can think of ourselves as vocal ballet dancers,
50
140125
3464
我們可以把自己想像為聲音芭蕾舞者
02:23
because we have to coordinate all of these vocal organs
51
143589
2214
因為我們必須使所有聲音器官都協調起來
02:25
when we make sounds, and we all actually
52
145803
2295
當我們發聲的時候,我們都有
02:28
have the genes for it. FoxP2, for example.
53
148098
2296
固定的基因在配合.比如說FoxP2
02:30
And like ballet, it takes an extraordinary level of training.
54
150394
2713
跟芭蕾一樣,這需要很高的訓練水準
02:33
I mean, just think how long it takes a child to learn to speak.
55
153107
2585
就想想一個小孩學會說話得多長時間吧
02:35
From the sound, we can actually track
56
155692
2382
從發出的聲音裏,我們實際上可以
02:38
the vocal fold position as it vibrates,
57
158074
2281
在它震動時找到聲音的位置
02:40
and just as the limbs are affected in Parkinson's,
58
160355
2543
就跟肢體一樣,聲音器官
02:42
so too are the vocal organs.
59
162898
2781
在帕金森症中也會被影響
02:45
So on the bottom trace, you can see an example of
60
165679
1880
在這底下,你可以看到一個不尋常的
02:47
irregular vocal fold tremor.
61
167559
1698
聲音腫瘤
02:49
We see all the same symptoms.
62
169257
1168
我們看到的都是一樣的症狀
02:50
We see vocal tremor, weakness and rigidity.
63
170425
2930
我們看到腫瘤,虛弱以及僵硬
02:53
The speech actually becomes quieter and more breathy
64
173355
2104
說話變得越來越虛弱多氣
02:55
after a while, and that's one of the example symptoms of it.
65
175459
2233
過一會,就成了其中一個症狀的表現
02:57
So these vocal effects can actually be quite subtle,
66
177692
2847
這些對聲音的影響可能會很細微,
03:00
in some cases, but with any digital microphone,
67
180539
3216
在有些情況下,使用精細聲音分析軟體
03:03
and using precision voice analysis software
68
183755
2545
以及目前發展很快的機器製造學中的知識
03:06
in combination with the latest in machine learning,
69
186300
2409
加上一個數位的麥克風
03:08
which is very advanced by now,
70
188709
1578
我們就可以準確地
03:10
we can now quantify exactly where somebody lies
71
190287
2886
辨認出人們在健康
03:13
on a continuum between health and disease
72
193173
2881
和疾病之間的狀態
03:16
using voice signals alone.
73
196054
2596
只用聲音信號就能鑒別
03:18
So these voice-based tests, how do they stack up against
74
198650
2314
那麼這些聲音測試是怎麼跟專業
03:20
expert clinical tests? We'll, they're both non-invasive.
75
200964
2150
的臨床測試相對比呢?嗯,他們都是不具侵略性的
03:23
The neurologist's test is non-invasive. They both use existing infrastructure.
76
203114
3982
他們都使用目前存在的設備
03:27
You don't have to design a whole new set of hospitals to do it.
77
207096
3004
你不需要重新設計一套新的設備去做這個測試
03:30
And they're both accurate. Okay, but in addition,
78
210100
2302
而且他們都是準確的.不過呢,
03:32
voice-based tests are non-expert.
79
212402
3327
聲音測試不是專家性的
03:35
That means they can be self-administered.
80
215729
1992
這就意味著這個測試可以由病人自己來做
03:37
They're high-speed, take about 30 seconds at most.
81
217721
2580
他們很方便,最多30秒就能做完
03:40
They're ultra-low cost, and we all know what happens.
82
220301
2294
而且費用極低,而且我們知道
03:42
When something becomes ultra-low cost,
83
222595
2440
有些東西一旦十分便宜,
03:45
it becomes massively scalable.
84
225035
2296
就可以被大規模生產
03:47
So here are some amazing goals that I think we can deal with now.
85
227331
3675
因此呢我認為我們可以實現一些十分驚人的目標
03:51
We can reduce logistical difficulties with patients.
86
231006
2426
我們可以減少運輸病人的困難
03:53
No need to go to the clinic for a routine checkup.
87
233432
2312
他們不再需要去臨床做常規檢查
03:55
We can do high-frequency monitoring to get objective data.
88
235744
2320
我們可以做高頻率的測控去得到客觀的數據
03:58
We can perform low-cost mass recruitment for clinical trials,
89
238064
4105
我們還可以為臨床檢查進行大批的低廉的雇傭
04:02
and we can make population-scale screening
90
242169
2115
這樣我們就可以使得大規模的檢查
04:04
feasible for the first time.
91
244284
1596
有史以來第一次變得可行
04:05
We have the opportunity to start to search
92
245880
2202
我們可以及時檢查
04:08
for the early biomarkers of the disease before it's too late.
93
248082
3541
初期疾病的標誌
04:11
So, taking the first steps towards this today,
94
251623
2758
因此呢,我們建立了在帕金森聲音
04:14
we're launching the Parkinson's Voice Initiative.
95
254381
2126
初始計畫上,邁出了第一步
04:16
With Aculab and PatientsLikeMe, we're aiming
96
256507
2232
通過Aculab和像我一樣的病人,我們準備
04:18
to record a very large number of voices worldwide
97
258739
1928
在全球記錄大量的聲音
04:20
to collect enough data to start to tackle these four goals.
98
260667
3140
去收集足夠的數據來實現這四個目標
04:23
We have local numbers accessible to three quarters
99
263807
1700
我們有這地球上7.5億人的
04:25
of a billion people on the planet.
100
265507
1610
當地電話號碼
04:27
Anyone healthy or with Parkinson's can call in, cheaply,
101
267117
3077
任何健康或者有帕金森症的人都可以打電話來,
04:30
and leave recordings, a few cents each,
102
270194
2139
並且留下一段錄音,一次只花幾美分
04:32
and I'm really happy to announce that we've already hit
103
272333
2190
而且我很高興地說我們
04:34
six percent of our target just in eight hours.
104
274523
3543
已經在8個小時內得到了600萬個錄音
04:38
Thank you. (Applause)
105
278066
3751
謝謝.(鼓掌)
04:41
(Applause)
106
281817
6320
(鼓掌)
04:48
Tom Rielly: So Max, by taking all these samples of,
107
288137
3575
Tom Rielly: Max, 通過收集這些,比如說10000人
04:51
let's say, 10,000 people,
108
291712
2776
的樣本,
04:54
you'll be able to tell who's healthy and who's not?
109
294488
2854
你就可以看出誰健康誰不是?
04:57
What are you going to get out of those samples?
110
297342
1685
你能從這些樣本中看出什麼?
04:59
Max Little: Yeah. Yeah. So what will happen is that,
111
299027
1830
Max Little: 是的,是的.在通話期間你必須
05:00
during the call you have to indicate whether or not
112
300857
1657
說明你到底有沒有
05:02
you have the disease or not, you see. TR: Right.
113
302514
1267
帕金森綜合症. TR: 好
05:03
ML: You see, some people may not do it. They may not get through it.
114
303781
2507
ML: 不過有些人可能就不會這麼做
05:06
But we'll get a very large sample of data that is collected
115
306288
2717
不過我們可以得到一大批從不同境況下
05:09
from all different circumstances, and it's getting it
116
309005
3408
得到的數據,這樣的話這些數據都有用
05:12
in different circumstances that matter because then
117
312413
1905
因為我們就可以找出
05:14
we are looking at ironing out the confounding factors,
118
314318
3384
混淆的因子
05:17
and looking for the actual markers of the disease.
119
317702
2161
這樣找到真正疾病的標誌
05:19
TR: So you're 86 percent accurate right now?
120
319863
2497
TR: 那目前為止你有百分之86的正確率?
05:22
ML: It's much better than that.
121
322360
1194
ML: 比百分之86還好很多
05:23
Actually, my student Thanasis, I have to plug him,
122
323554
1720
實際上,我的一個學生Thanasis, 我必須把他提出來
05:25
because he's done some fantastic work,
123
325274
1870
因為他做了一些極棒的工作
05:27
and now he has proved that it works over the mobile telephone network as well,
124
327144
3770
現在他已經證明了在移動電話網上也可以測試
05:30
which enables this project, and we're getting 99 percent accuracy.
125
330914
3390
這樣一來我們這個計畫基本就有百分之99的正確率
05:34
TR: Ninety-nine. Well, that's an improvement.
126
334304
1576
TR: 99. 嗯,這改進還挺高的
05:35
So what that means is that people will be able to —
127
335880
2201
那麼這就意味著人們可以----
05:38
ML: (Laughs)
128
338081
1852
ML: (笑)
05:39
TR: People will be able to call in from their mobile phones
129
339933
1906
TR: 人們就可以從他們手機打來電話
05:41
and do this test, and people with Parkinson's could call in,
130
341839
3072
來做這個測試,患有帕金森症的人
05:44
record their voice, and then their doctor can check up
131
344911
2870
可以記錄他們的聲音,然後醫生可以監控
05:47
on their progress, see where they're doing in this course of the disease.
132
347781
2681
他們的進程,以及他們在做些什麼
05:50
ML: Absolutely.
133
350462
970
ML: 沒錯,就是這樣
05:51
TR: Thanks so much. Max Little, everybody.
134
351432
1743
TR: 非常感謝, Max Little, 在場的每隔人
05:53
ML: Thanks, Tom. (Applause)
135
353175
5157
ML: 謝謝, Tom.(鼓掌)
關於本網站

本網站將向您介紹對學習英語有用的 YouTube 視頻。 您將看到來自世界各地的一流教師教授的英語課程。 雙擊每個視頻頁面上顯示的英文字幕,從那裡播放視頻。 字幕與視頻播放同步滾動。 如果您有任何意見或要求,請使用此聯繫表與我們聯繫。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7