Max Little: A test for Parkinson's with a phone call

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevoditelj: Senzos Osijek Recezent: Suzana Baric

So, well, I do applied math,

Bavim se primijenjenom matematikom,

and this is a peculiar problem

a problem svojstven

for anyone who does applied math, is that

svima koji se bave primijenjenom matematikom

we are like management consultants.

jest da smo poput savjetnika za poslovanje.

No one knows what the hell we do.

Nitko ne zna što zapravo radimo.

So I am going to give you some -- attempt today

Ja ću vam danas pokušati

to try and explain to you what I do.

objasniti što radim.

So, dancing is one of the most human of activities.

Ples je jedna od najljudskijih aktivnosti.

We delight at ballet virtuosos and tap dancers

Oduševljavaju nas baletni virtuozi i plesači stepa

you will see later on.

koje ćete vidjeti kasnije.

Now, ballet requires an extraordinary level of expertise

Balet zahtijeva izvanrednu razinu vještine

and a high level of skill,

i visoku razinu umijeća

and probably a level of initial suitability

i vjerojatno neku razinu početne prikladnosti

that may well have a genetic component to it.

koja bi mogla imati genetski element.

Now, sadly, neurological disorders such as Parkinson's disease

Nažalost, neurološki poremećaji, kao što je Parkinsonova bolest,

gradually destroy this extraordinary ability,

postupno uništavaju ovu izvranrednu sposobnost.

as it is doing to my friend Jan Stripling, who was

To čine i mom prijatelju Janu Striplingu, koji je

a virtuoso ballet dancer in his time.

u svoje vrijeme bio virtuozni baletan.

So great progress and treatment has been made over the years.

Velik napredak i tretman postignuti su tijekom godina.

However, there are 6.3 million people worldwide

Međutim, 6,3 milijuna ljudi diljem svijeta

who have the disease, and they have to live with

ima ovu bolest i mora živjeti

incurable weakness, tremor, rigidity

s neizlječivom slabošću, tremorom, ukočenošću

and the other symptoms that go along with the disease,

i ostalim simptomima te bolesti.

so what we need are objective tools

Stoga trebamo objektivne instrumente

to detect the disease before it's too late.

za otkrivanje bolesti dok nije prekasno.

We need to be able to measure progression objectively,

Moramo moći objektivno mjeriti razvoj bolesti,

and ultimately, the only way we're going to know

i konačno, jedini način na koji ćemo znati

when we actually have a cure is when we have

kad budemo imali lijek jest kad bude postojala

an objective measure that can answer that for sure.

objektivna mjera koja će na to moći sa sigurnošću odgovoriti.

But frustratingly, with Parkinson's disease

Frustrira to što kod Parkinsonove bolesti

and other movement disorders, there are no biomarkers,

i ostalih poremećaja kretanja ne postoje biomarkeri,

so there's no simple blood test that you can do,

stoga nema jednostavnog krvnog nalaza koji biste mogli napraviti,

and the best that we have is like

i najbolje što imamo jest

this 20-minute neurologist test.

20-minutni neurološki test.

You have to go to the clinic to do it. It's very, very costly,

Da biste ga napravili, morate otići u bolnicu. Veoma je skup,

and that means that, outside the clinical trials,

što znači da se osim u kliničkim ispitivanjima

it's just never done. It's never done.

nikad ne obavlja. Nikad se ne obavlja.

But what if patients could do this test at home?

No, što kad bi pacijenti mogli ovaj test obaviti kod kuće?

Now, that would actually save on a difficult trip to the clinic,

Time bi se poštedjeli teškog puta do bolnice.

and what if patients could do that test themselves, right?

Što kad bi pacijenti mogli sami napraviti taj test?

No expensive staff time required.

Bez skupog osoblja.

Takes about $300, by the way,

Inače, testiranje u neurološkoj klinici

in the neurologist's clinic to do it.

stoji oko 300 dolara.

So what I want to propose to you as an unconventional way

Stoga vam želim predložiti jedan nekonvencionalan način

in which we can try to achieve this,

na koji to možemo pokušati postići,

because, you see, in one sense, at least,

zato što smo svi mi u jednu ruku, na kraju krajeva,

we are all virtuosos like my friend Jan Stripling.

virtuozi poput mog prijatelja Jana Striplinga.

So here we have a video of the vibrating vocal folds.

Ovo je snimka koja prikazuje glasnice koje vibriraju.

Now, this is healthy and this is somebody making speech sounds,

Zdrave su i ovdje netko proizvodi govorne zvukove.

and we can think of ourselves as vocal ballet dancers,

Možemo zamisliti sebe kao vokalne plesače baleta

because we have to coordinate all of these vocal organs

zato što moramo uskladiti sve ove govorne organe

when we make sounds, and we all actually

kad prozvodimo zvukove.

have the genes for it. FoxP2, for example.

Svi imamo gene za to. Na primjer, gen FoxP2.

And like ballet, it takes an extraordinary level of training.

Kao i kod baleta, potrebna je izvanredna razina uvježbanosti.

I mean, just think how long it takes a child to learn to speak.

Samo se sjetite koliko treba djetetu da nauči govoriti.

From the sound, we can actually track

Pomoću zvuka zapravo možemo pratiti

the vocal fold position as it vibrates,

položaj glasnica dok vibriraju,

and just as the limbs are affected in Parkinson's,

Parkinson zahvaća glasnice,

so too are the vocal organs.

baš kao i udove.

So on the bottom trace, you can see an example of

Na donjem ispisu možete vidjeti primjer

irregular vocal fold tremor.

nepravilnog tremora glasnica.

We see all the same symptoms.

Vidimo iste simptome.

We see vocal tremor, weakness and rigidity.

Vidimo glasovni tremor, slabost i ukočenost.

The speech actually becomes quieter and more breathy

Govor zapravo postaje tiši i zadihaniji

after a while, and that's one of the example symptoms of it.

nakon nekog vremena i to je jedan primjer simptoma.

So these vocal effects can actually be quite subtle,

Ovi govorni učinci mogu biti vrlo suptilni,

in some cases, but with any digital microphone,

u nekim slučajevima, ali s bilo kojim digitalnim mikrofonom

and using precision voice analysis software

te koristeći precizni program za glasovnu analizu

in combination with the latest in machine learning,

u kombinaciji s najnovijim dostignućima u strojnom učenju,

which is very advanced by now,

koje je veoma napredovalo,

we can now quantify exactly where somebody lies

sad možemo točno izmjeriti gdje se netko nalazi

on a continuum between health and disease

na pravcu između zdravlja i bolesti,

using voice signals alone.

i to koristeći samo glasovne signale.

So these voice-based tests, how do they stack up against

Kakvi su ovi testovi temeljeni na glasu u usporedbi sa

expert clinical tests? We'll, they're both non-invasive.

stručnim kliničkim testovima? Pa, i jedni i drugi su neinvazivni.

The neurologist's test is non-invasive. They both use existing infrastructure.

Neurološki test je neinvazivan. Oba koriste postojeću infrastrukturu.

You don't have to design a whole new set of hospitals to do it.

Ne morate graditi nove bolnice da biste to napravili.

And they're both accurate. Okay, but in addition,

I oba su točna. No, uz to,

voice-based tests are non-expert.

testovi utemeljeni na glasu nestručni su.

That means they can be self-administered.

To znači da ih možete izvesti sami.

They're high-speed, take about 30 seconds at most.

Vrlo su brzi, potrebno je najviše 30-ak sekundi.

They're ultra-low cost, and we all know what happens.

Veoma su jeftini i svi znamo što se događa.

When something becomes ultra-low cost,

Kad nešto postane vrlo jeftino,

it becomes massively scalable.

također postane masovno mjerljivo.

So here are some amazing goals that I think we can deal with now.

Ovo su neki čudesni ciljevi s kojima se sad možemo nositi.

We can reduce logistical difficulties with patients.

Možemo smanjiti logističke teškoće s pacijentima.

No need to go to the clinic for a routine checkup.

Nema potrebe za odlaskom u bolnicu na rutinski pregled.

We can do high-frequency monitoring to get objective data.

Možemo provoditi česte nadzore kako bismo dobili objektivne podatke.

We can perform low-cost mass recruitment for clinical trials,

Možemo jeftino i masovno pronalaziti subjekte za kliničke pokuse

and we can make population-scale screening

i po prvi put je izvedivo napraviti procjenu

feasible for the first time.

na razini cijelog stanovništva.

We have the opportunity to start to search

Imamo mogućnost početi tražiti

for the early biomarkers of the disease before it's too late.

rane biomarkere bolesti prije nego bude prekasno.

So, taking the first steps towards this today,

Kako bismo učinili prvi korak prema tome,

we're launching the Parkinson's Voice Initiative.

danas lansiramo Parkinsonovu glasovnu inicijativu.

With Aculab and PatientsLikeMe, we're aiming

Zajedno s tvrtkom Aculab i stranicom PatientsLikeMe

to record a very large number of voices worldwide

ciljamo na snimanje jako velikog broja glasova diljem svijeta

to collect enough data to start to tackle these four goals.

kako bismo skupili dovoljno podataka da se počnemo baviti s ova četiri cilja.

We have local numbers accessible to three quarters

Dostupni su nam lokalni telefonski brojevi

of a billion people on the planet.

kojima pristup ima 750 milijuna ljudi u svijetu.

Anyone healthy or with Parkinson's can call in, cheaply,

Svi zdravi, ili koji imaju Parkinsona, mogu jeftino nazvati

and leave recordings, a few cents each,

i ostaviti zapise, koji stoje po nekoliko centa,

and I'm really happy to announce that we've already hit

i vrlo sam sretan što mogu reći da smo već dostigli

six percent of our target just in eight hours.

6% od našeg cilja, za samo osam sati.

Thank you. (Applause)

Hvala. (Pljesak)

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

Tom Rielly: So Max, by taking all these samples of,

Tom Rielly: Dakle, Maxe, uzimajući sve ove uzorke od,

let's say, 10,000 people,

recimo, 10 000 ljudi,

you'll be able to tell who's healthy and who's not?

moći ćete reći tko je zdrav, a tko nije?

What are you going to get out of those samples?

Što ćete dobiti iz tih uzoraka?

Max Little: Yeah. Yeah. So what will happen is that,

Max Litlle: Da. Dakle, kako to ide.

during the call you have to indicate whether or not

Tijekom poziva morate reći

you have the disease or not, you see. TR: Right.

imate li bolest ili ne. TR: Dobro.

ML: You see, some people may not do it. They may not get through it.

ML: Vidite, neki ljudi možda to ne učine. Možda ne prođu kroz to.

But we'll get a very large sample of data that is collected

Ali dobit ćemo jako velik uzorak podataka prikupljen

from all different circumstances, and it's getting it

iz mnogo različitih okolnosti,

in different circumstances that matter because then

a upravo je to važno, zato što

we are looking at ironing out the confounding factors,

želimo riješiti zbunjujuće faktore

and looking for the actual markers of the disease.

i tražiti stvarne znakove bolesti.

TR: So you're 86 percent accurate right now?

TR: Dakle, trenutna točnost iznosi 86%?

ML: It's much better than that.

ML: Mnogo je bolje od toga.

Actually, my student Thanasis, I have to plug him,

Zapravo, moj učenik Thanasis, moram ga spomenuti

because he's done some fantastic work,

zato što je napravio fantastičan posao

and now he has proved that it works over the mobile telephone network as well,

i dokazao da funkcionira i preko mobilnih mreža,

which enables this project, and we're getting 99 percent accuracy.

što omogućuje ovaj projekt. Dobili smo točnost od 99%.

TR: Ninety-nine. Well, that's an improvement.

TR: Devedeset devet. To se zove poboljšanje.

So what that means is that people will be able to —

Dakle, to znači da će ljudi moći –

ML: (Laughs)

ML: (Smijeh)

TR: People will be able to call in from their mobile phones

TR: Ljudi će moći nazvati sa svojih mobitela

and do this test, and people with Parkinson's could call in,

i napraviti ovaj test. I ljudi sa Parkinsonom će moći nazvati,

record their voice, and then their doctor can check up

snimiti svoj glas i onda će njihov liječnik moći provjeriti

on their progress, see where they're doing in this course of the disease.

njihov napredak, vidjeti gdje su u tijeku bolesti.

ML: Absolutely.

ML: Apsolutno.

TR: Thanks so much. Max Little, everybody.

TR: Hvala puno. Maxe Little, ljudi.

ML: Thanks, Tom. (Applause)

ML: Hvala, Tome. (Pljesak)