Alex Tabarrok on how ideas trump crises

翻译人员: Huayan Amy Wang 校对人员: Yongming Luo

The first half of the 20th century

20世纪的上半叶

was an absolute disaster in human affairs,

是人类历史上一个彻底失败的阶段,

a cataclysm.

那是一场浩劫.

We had the First World War,

我们经历了第一次世界大战,

the Great Depression,

大萧条,

the Second World War

第二次世界大战,

and the rise of the communist nations.

以及共产主义国家的兴起.

And each one of these forces

这其中的每一个势力都

split the world, tore the world apart,

將世界隔离开来, 分化世界,

divided the world.

分裂世界.

And they threw up walls --

这些势力制造了很多壁垒,

political walls, trade walls,

政治壁垒, 贸易壁垒,

transportation walls,

运输壁垒,

communication walls, iron curtains --

通信壁垒, 以及种种阻碍交流的无形屏障,

which divided peoples and nations.

它们分裂了人民, 也分裂了国家.

It was only in the second half of the 20th century

直到二十世纪下半叶,

that we slowly began to pull ourselves

我们才慢慢开始从这个

out of this abyss.

深渊里爬出来.

Trade walls began to come tumbling down.

贸易壁垒开始轰然倒塌.

Here are some data on tariffs:

这里是一些关税数据:

starting at 40 percent, coming down to less than 5 percent.

从开始的百分之四十, 一直降到百分之五以下.

We globalized the world. And what does that mean?

我们实现了全球化. 这意味着什么呢?

It means that we extended cooperation

这意味着人类的合作

across national boundaries;

已经跨越国界.

we made the world more cooperative.

我们使世界变得更合作.

Transportation walls came tumbling down.

运输壁垒也倒塌了.

You know in 1950 the typical ship carried

1950年, 一艘典型的货船可装载

5,000 to 10,000 tons worth of goods.

五千至一万吨货物.

Today a container ship can carry 150,000 tons;

今天,一艘集装箱船的载重量达到十五万吨.

it can be manned with a smaller crew;

运作它需要的船员队伍比之前还小,

and unloaded faster than ever before.

而且卸载也比以往更快.

Communication walls, I don't have to tell you -- the Internet --

通信壁垒, 不用我多说, 随着互联网的出现

have come tumbling down.

也已不复存在了(GFW).

And of course the iron curtains,

当然还有铁幕的瓦解,

political walls have come tumbling down.

政治壁垒已逐渐消除.

Now all of this has been tremendous for the world.

所有这一切都对世界有巨大的影响.

Trade has increased.

贸易增长了.

Here is just a little bit of data.

我有一些数据来证明.

In 1990, exports from China to the United States:

1990年, 中国到美国的出口额是

15 billion dollars.

150亿美元.

By 2007: over 300 billion dollars.

到2007年，则超过了3000亿美元.

And perhaps most remarkably,

也许最值得指出的是,

at the beginning of the 21st century,

在21世纪初,

really for the first time in modern history,

真的是第一次在现代历史上,

growth extended to almost all parts of the world.

经济增长的势头几乎遍布世界各地

So China, I've already mentioned,

我已经提到过中国,

beginning around 1978, around the time of the death of Mao,

从1978年开始, 大约在毛泽东去世的时候,

growth -- ten percent a year.

开始了每年百分之十的经济增长.

Year after year after year,

年复一年,

absolutely incredible.

真是难以置信!

Never before in human history

史无前例的是,

have so many people been raised out of

中国把这么多人从贫困中

such great poverty as happened in China.

解救出来.

China is the world's greatest anti-poverty program

在过去三十年里, 中国运行了世界上最成功的

over the last three decades.

摆脱贫穷项目.

India, starting a little bit later,

印度开始的晚一些,

but in 1990, begetting tremendous growth.

但在1990年, 开始了迅猛的增长.

Incomes at that time

当时的人均年收入还

less than $1,000 per year.

不到1000美元.

And over the next 18 years

而在接下来的18年

have almost tripled.

几乎增加了两倍.

Growth of six percent a year. Absolutely incredible.

每年经济增长百分之六. 绝对难以置信.

Now Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa --

非洲, 撒哈拉以南的非洲,

Sub-Saharan Africa

撒哈拉以南的非洲

has been the area of the world

是世界上

most resistant to growth.

最抗拒发展的地区.

And we can see the tragedy of Africa

我们可以看到非洲的悲剧

in the first few bars here.

就从这个条形图的前几个条.

Growth was negative.

负增长!

People were actually getting poorer than their parents,

人民越来越穷, 都比不上他们父母的生活水平.

and sometimes even poorer than their grandparents had been.

有时甚至比他们的祖父母还穷.

But at the end of the 20th century,

但在二十世纪末,

the beginning of the 21st century,

二十一世纪初,

we saw growth in Africa.

我们看到非洲也开始发展.

And I think, as you'll see, there's reasons for optimism,

正如你将会看到, 我认为我们有理由乐观.

because I believe that the best is yet to come.

因为我相信好戏还在后头呢!

Now why.

为什么这么说呢?

On the cutting edge today

在今天的发展的最前沿

it's new ideas which are driving growth.

主要是创新在推动经济增长.

And by that I mean it's

也就是说,

products for which the research and development costs

尖端产品的特点是它的研究和开发费用

are really high, and the manufacturing costs are low.

非常高, 但是制造成本很低.

More than ever before it is these types of ideas

这种创新, 比以往任何时候都更加

which are driving growth on the cutting edge.

能够推动尖端技术的发展.

Now ideas have this amazing property.

创新有一个很了不起的性质.

Thomas Jefferson, I think, really expressed this quite well.

我认为托马斯杰斐逊 (Thomas Jefferson) 表达得相当好.

He said, "He who receives an idea from me

他说过, “他接受我的一个想法，

receives instruction himself, without lessening mine.

他自己受到教育，而我的想法并没有减少.

As he who lights his candle at mine

就象他借用我的蜡烛来点燃他的,

receives light without darkening me."

他有了光，而我并没有变暗."

Or to put it slightly differently:

或者换一个说法,

one apple feeds one man,

一个苹果可以喂一个人,

but an idea can feed the world.

但一个创意可以哺育整个世界.

Now this is not new. This is practically not new to TEDsters.

这并没有什么新奇的. 尤其对参加TED的代表们.

This is practically the model of TED.

这实际上恰恰是TED的模式.

But what is new is that the greater function of ideas

这里面真正的创新是认识到创意会起到更大的功能,

is going to drive growth even more than ever before.

它会比以往任何时候都更能推动经济增长.

This provides a reason why

这就是为什么

trade and globalization

贸易与全球化

are even more important, more powerful than ever before,

比以往任何时候都更重要, 更有力.

and are going to increase growth more than ever before.

而且比以往任何时候都能更快地促进经济增长.

And to explain why this is so, I have a question.

为了解释为什么会是这样, 我先问一个问题.

Suppose that there are two diseases:

假设有两个疾病,

one of them is rare, the other one is common,

一个是罕见的疾病，另一个是常见病.

but if they are not treated they are equally severe.

但是如果不治疗他们, 后果会同样严重.

If you had to choose, which would you rather have:

如果你来选择, 你会选哪一个呢?

the common disease or the rare disease?

常见病还是罕见病?

Common, the common -- I think that's absolutely right,

常见病. 对了. 我认为这是绝对正确的.

and why? Because there are more drugs to treat common diseases

为什么呢? 因为治疗常见疾病的药物

than there are to treat rare diseases.

会比治疗罕见疾病的药物多得多.

The reason for this is incentives.

问题的根源在于动力.

It costs about the same to produce a new drug

发明新药物的成本都差不多,

whether that drug treats 1,000 people,

无论那个药物可以治疗1000人,

100,000 people, or a million people.

10万人, 或100万人.

But the revenues are much greater if the drug treats a million people.

但是, 如果那个药物能治疗100万人, 它的营业收入会很高.

So the incentives are much larger

显然了, 生产治疗常见病药物

to produce drugs which treat more people.

的动力要大得多.

To put this differently: larger markets save lives.

换句话说, 大市场救生命.

In this case misery truly does love company.

这真是真正的"同病相怜"啊.

Now think about the following:

请想一想:

if China and India were as rich as the United States is today,

如果中国和印度像今天的美国一样富有,

the market for cancer drugs would be eight times larger than it is now.

抗癌药物的市场将是现在的8倍.

Now we are not there yet, but it is happening.

我们还没有达到那个程度, 但这是会实现的!

As other countries become richer

随着其他国家变得更加富有

the demand for these pharmaceuticals

对这些药品的需求

is going to increase tremendously.

将大幅增加.

And that means an increase incentive to do research and development,

这意味着研发的动力会增加,

which benefits everyone in the world.

这对全世界每个人都有好处.

Larger markets increase the incentive

市场越大,

to produce all kinds of ideas,

创新的动力越大.

whether it's software, whether it's a computer chip,

不论是软件, 还是计算机芯片,

whether it's a new design.

还是一个崭新的设计.

For the Hollywood people in the audience,

对于来自好莱坞的观众

this even explains why action movies

这甚至可以解释为什么动作片的预算

have larger budgets than comedies:

比喜剧片要大.

it's because action movies translate easier

这是因为动作片更容易翻译到

into other languages and other cultures,

其他语言和其他文化.

so the market for those movies is larger.

这些电影的市场更大,

People are willing to invest more,

所以人们更愿意多投资,

and the budgets are larger.

所以预算可以更大.

Alright. Well if larger markets increase the incentive

好. 那么, 如果市场越大,

to produce new ideas,

创新的动力越大,

how do we maximize that incentive?

我们如何能最大限度地发挥这一动力呢?

It's by having one world market, by globalizing the world.

通过统一世界市场, 通过世界全球化.

The way I like to put this is:

我喜欢的说法是,

one idea. Ideas are meant to be shared,

"同一个想法", 想法就是为了分享,

so one idea can serve one world, one market.

就是说, 同一个想法可以为同一个世界服务, 为同一个市场服务.

One idea, one world, one market.

同一个想法, 同一个世界, 同一个市场.

Well how else can we create new ideas?

除此之外, 还有什么渠道来创造新的想法呢?

That's one reason.

这些动力包括

Globalize trade.

全球化, 贸易.

How else can we create new ideas?

还有什么别的办法呢?

Well, more idea creators.

恩，更多的创新者.

Now idea creators, they come from all walks of life.

来自社会各阶层的创新者.

Artists and innovators -- many of the people you've seen on this stage.

艺术家和改革家, 包括许多在这个讲台上演讲过的人.

I'm going to focus on scientists and engineers

我今天要特别提到科学家和工程师

because I have some data on that, and I'm a data person.

因为我在这方面有一些数据. 我是一个靠数据说话的人.

Now, today, less than one-tenth of one percent

今天, 不到百分之零点一

of the world's population are scientists and engineers.

的世界人口是科学家和工程师.

(Laughter)

（众笑）

The United States has been an idea leader.

美国一直是创新方面的带头人.

A large fraction of those people are in the United States.

一大部分的创新者在美国.

But the U.S. is losing its idea leadership.

但是, 美国开始失去它在创新方面的领导地位.

And for that I am very grateful.

对此我表示衷心感谢.

That is a good thing.

这是一件好事.

It is fortunate that we are becoming less of an idea leader

庆幸的是, 我们不在是创新方面的带头人了

because for too long the United States,

因为长期以来, 美国

and a handful of other developed countries,

和其他几个发达国家,

have shouldered the entire burden

肩负着整个研究和开发的

of research and development.

的重任.

But consider the following:

但是, 请大家考虑一下:

if the world as a whole were as wealthy as the United States is now

如果整个世界都象现在的美国一样富裕,

there would be more than five times as many scientists and engineers

那么, 将有5倍多的科学家和工程师

contributing to ideas which benefit everyone,

来贡献创意, 这对每个人都大有好处,

which are shared by everyone.

供大家分享.

I think of the great Indian mathematician, Ramanujan.

我想到伟大的印度数学家拉马努金 (Ramanujan).

How many Ramanujans are there in India today

在今天的印度, 有多少个Ramanujans

toiling in the fields, barely able to feed themselves,

在耕地里辛勤地劳动, 几乎无法养活自己,

when they could be feeding the world?

他们什么时候才能来回报世界?

Now we're not there yet.

现在我们还没有达到那个程度.

But it is going to happen in this century.

但是, 这会在本世纪内实现的.

The real tragedy of the last century is this:

上个世纪的真正的悲剧是, 打个比喻:

if you think about the world's population

如果你把世界人口想像成

as a giant computer, a massively parallel processor,

一个巨大的计算机, 一个大规模并行处理器,

then the great tragedy has been

那么, 极其不幸的是

that billions of our processors have been off line.

数十亿的处理器都没开动.

But in this century China is coming on line.

但是在这个世纪, 中国开始上线.

India is coming on line.

印度开始上线.

Africa is coming on line.

非洲也开始上线.

We will see an Einstein in Africa in this century.

在这个世纪之内, 我们将看到下一个出生在非洲的爱因斯坦.

Here is just some data. This is China.

让我们来看一些数据. 这是关于中国的.

1996: less than one million

1996年, 中国产生不到100万

new university students in China per year;

的新大学生,每年.

2006: over five million.

2006年, 这个数字超过了500万!

Now think what this means.

这意味着什么呢?

This means we all benefit when another country gets rich.

这意味着, 当别的国家变富以后, 我们都将会受益.

We should not fear other countries becoming wealthy.

我们不应该担心其他国家在变富.

That is something that we should embrace --

我们应该大力支持

a wealthy China, a wealthy India, a wealthy Africa.

一个富裕的中国, 一个富裕的印度, 和一个富裕的非洲.

We need a greater demand for ideas --

我们需要增大对创新的需求,

those larger markets I was talking about earlier --

需要扩大市场, 象我在前面讲到的,

and a greater supply of ideas for the world.

还有, 我们需要向世界提供更多的创新.

Now you can see some of the reasons why I'm optimistic.

现在你可以理解我为什么对此充满信心.

Globalization is increasing the demand

全球化在增大对创新的需求,

for ideas, the incentive to create new ideas.

这是创新的动力.

Investments in education are increasing the supply of new ideas.

教育投资使我们产出更多的创新想法.

In fact if you look at world history

事实上, 如果你看看世界历史

you can see some reasons for optimism.

你可以看到一些乐观的理由.

From about the beginnings of humanity

从人类的起源

to 1500: zero economic growth, nothing.

到1500年, 经济增长率为零, 没有任何增长.

1500 to 1800: maybe a little bit of economic growth,

1500至1800年, 只有一点点的经济增长.

but less in a century

但那时一个世纪的经济增长

than you expect to see in a year today.

比现在一年的增长还少.

1900s: maybe one percent.

1900年代, 增长率大约是百分之一.

Twentieth century: a little bit over two percent.

二十世纪, 百分之二多一点.

Twenty-first century could easily be 3.3, even higher percent.

二十一世纪, 增长率可达到百分之3.3, 或者更高.

Even at that rate,

即使是以这样的速度发展,

by 2100 average GDP per capita

到2100年, 世界人均国内生产总值

in the world will be $200,000.

将达到20万美元.

That's not U.S. GDP per capita, which will be over a million,

这不是美国的人均国内生产总值, 它将超过100万.

but world GDP per capita -- $200,000.

但世界人均国内生产总值是20万美元.

That's not that far.

这不是远不可及的.

We won't make it.

我们看不到那一天了.

But some of our grandchildren probably will.

但我们的孙子们大概会的.

And I should say,

而且据我看,

I think this is a rather modest prediction.

我认为这是一个相当适中的预测.

In Kurzweilian terms this is gloomy.

在Kurzweilian看来, 这个预测很悲观.

In Kurzweilian terms I'm like the Eeyore of economic growth.

在Kurzweilian看来, 我象Eeyore的角色一样, 对经济增长很悲观.

(Laughter)

（众笑）

Alright what about problems?

好. 那么会遇到什么样的问题呢?

What about a great depression?

大萧条会不会再发生?

Well let's take a look. Let's take a look at the Great Depression.

那么让我们来看看. 让我们来看一下大萧条时期.

Here is GDP per capita

这是人均国内生产总值

from 1900 to 1929.

从1900年到1929年.

Now let's imagine that you were an economist in 1929,

让我们想象一下, 在1929年,如果你是一位经济学家

trying to forecast future growth for the United States,

试图预测美国的未来经济增长率,

not knowing that the economy was about to go off a cliff,

你还不知道美国经济即将猛降.

not knowing that we were about to enter

不知道我们即将进入

the greatest economic disaster certainly in the 20th century.

20世纪最重大的经济灾难期.

What would you have predicted, not knowing this?

不知道这些情况, 你会怎样预测呢?

If you had based your prediction, your forecast

如果你的预测是根据

on 1900 to 1929

1900年至1929年的平均增长速度

you'd have predicted something like this.

你预测的结果大概是这样.

If you'd been a little more optimistic --

如果你更乐观一点,

say, based upon the Roaring Twenties -- you'd have said this.

根据兴隆的20年代来预测, 你会得到这个结论.

So what actually happened?

那么实际情况如何呢?

We went off a cliff but we recovered.

我们掉下了悬崖，但我们恢复过来了.

In fact in the second half of the 20th century

事实上, 20世纪下半叶的

growth was even higher than anything you would have predicted

增长速度远远超过了任何预测,

based upon the first half of the 20th century.

如果你的预测是基于20世纪上半叶的数据.

So growth can wash away

所以说, 经济增长可以冲走

even what appears to be a great depression.

大萧条造成的损失.

Alright. What else?

好. 还有什么值得考虑的呢?

Oil. Oil. This was a big topic.

石油. 石油. 这是一个大课题.

When I was writing up my notes oil was $140 per barrel.

当我在准备这个讲演的时候, 石油是140美元一桶.

So people were asking a question. They were saying,

所以, 大家都在想一个问题. 他们在问,

"Is China drinking our milkshake?"

“中国在喝我们的奶昔么?"

(Laughter)

（众笑）

And there is some truth to this,

这是有一定的道理的.

in the sense that we have something of a finite resource,

如果考虑到有限的资源.

and increased growth is going to push up demand for that.

随着经济增长的加快, 对资源的需求也会增加.

But I think I don't have to tell this audience

但我认为在坐的观众不用我讲就明白,

that a higher price of oil is not necessarily a bad thing.

石油价格增长并不一定是一件坏事.

Moreover, as everyone knows,

此外, 正如大家都知道,

look -- it's energy, not oil, which counts.

能源, 而不是石油, 是最重要的.

And higher oil prices mean

而且, 油价越高,

a greater incentive to invest in energy R&D.

投资新能源研发的动力越大.

You can see this in the data.

你可以从数据里看得出:

As oil prices go up, energy patents go up.

随着石油价格的上涨, 能源专利也在上升.

The world is much better equipped

今天的世界做了很好的准备

to overcome an increase in the price of oil

来应付油价上涨的危机,

today, than ever in the past,

比以往任何时候都有准备,

because of what I'm talking about.

正是因为我所讲到的.

One idea, one world, one market.

同一个想法, 同一个世界, 同一个市场.

So I'm optimistic

所以我很乐观

so long as we hew to these two ideas:

只要我们坚持以下这两个想法:

to keep globalizing world markets,

继续推动世界市场的全球化,

keep extending cooperation across national boundaries,

继续扩大跨越国界的合作,

and keep investing in education.

并继续投资于教育.

Now the United States has a particularly important role

美国在这一方面有特别重要

to play in this:

的作用 --

to keep our education system globalized,

继续全球化我们的教育体系,

to keep our education system open to students from all over the world,

继续保证我们的教育系统开放给来自世界各地的学生 --

because our education system

因为我们的教育体系

is the candle

正如一根蜡烛,

that other students come to light their own candles.

其他学生来用它来点燃他们自己的蜡烛.

Now remember here what Jefferson said.

你们还记得我引用过的Jefferson的话吗?

Jefferson said, "When they come

Jefferson 说过. "当他们来用

and light their candles at ours,

我们的蜡烛去点燃他们的蜡烛时,

they gain light, and we are not darkened."

他们有了光, 而我们也不会变暗."

But Jefferson wasn't quite right, was he?

但是, Jefferson并不完全正确, 对吗?

Because the truth is,

因为事实上,

when they light their candles at ours,

当他们用我们的蜡烛来点燃他们的蜡烛时,

there is twice as much light available for everyone.

大家有两倍的光来共享.

So my view is: Be optimistic.

因此, 我的看法是, 我们应该保持乐观.

Spread the ideas. Spread the light.

传播思想, 传播光明.

Thank you.

谢谢.

(Applause)

（掌声）