Alex Tabarrok on how ideas trump crises

譯者: Julia Yu 審譯者: Adrienne Lin

The first half of the 20th century

20世紀上半葉

was an absolute disaster in human affairs,

無疑是人類史上的災難

a cataclysm.

那是一場浩劫

We had the First World War,

我們經歷了第一次世界大戰

the Great Depression,

經濟大蕭條

the Second World War

第二次世界大戰

and the rise of the communist nations.

以及共產國家的崛起

And each one of these forces

每一次的劇變

split the world, tore the world apart,

都使世界四分五裂、分崩離析，

divided the world.

並且加深世界的歧異

And they threw up walls --

一道道的壁壘隨之而生

political walls, trade walls,

政治壁壘、貿易壁壘

transportation walls,

運輸壁壘

communication walls, iron curtains --

通訊壁壘，還有鐵幕

which divided peoples and nations.

分裂了人民和國家

It was only in the second half of the 20th century

直到20世紀下半葉，

that we slowly began to pull ourselves

我們才慢慢脫離

out of this abyss.

這個深淵

Trade walls began to come tumbling down.

貿易壁壘開始瓦解

Here are some data on tariffs:

這裡是一些關稅數據

starting at 40 percent, coming down to less than 5 percent.

從一開始的40%降到少於5%

We globalized the world. And what does that mean?

我們推動了全球化，這意味著什麼？

It means that we extended cooperation

這意味著人類的合作

across national boundaries;

已經跨越國界

we made the world more cooperative.

我們使這個世界更加合作無間

Transportation walls came tumbling down.

運輸壁壘也瓦解了

You know in 1950 the typical ship carried

1950年，一艘普通大小的船

5,000 to 10,000 tons worth of goods.

可以載運五千至一萬噸的貨物，

Today a container ship can carry 150,000 tons;

今天一艘貨櫃船就能載十五萬噸

it can be manned with a smaller crew;

需要的船員較少，

and unloaded faster than ever before.

卸貨的速度也較快

Communication walls, I don't have to tell you -- the Internet --

通訊壁壘，不用說，因網際網路的興起

have come tumbling down.

而瓦解

And of course the iron curtains,

當然還有鐵幕的瓦解，

political walls have come tumbling down.

政治壁壘瓦解

Now all of this has been tremendous for the world.

這些改變都對世界意義重大

Trade has increased.

貿易變得更加頻繁

Here is just a little bit of data.

圖上是一些數據：

In 1990, exports from China to the United States:

1990年，中國對美國的出口總額為

15 billion dollars.

150億美元

By 2007: over 300 billion dollars.

到了2007年，則超過三千億美元

And perhaps most remarkably,

或許最驚人的是

at the beginning of the 21st century,

21世紀初，

really for the first time in modern history,

真的是現代史上頭一遭，

growth extended to almost all parts of the world.

幾乎世界各地都出現了經濟成長

So China, I've already mentioned,

我剛剛提到的中國，

beginning around 1978, around the time of the death of Mao,

從1978年開始，大約是毛澤東過世的時候，

growth -- ten percent a year.

每年經濟增長率高達10%

Year after year after year,

年復一年都是如此

absolutely incredible.

令人難以置信

Never before in human history

人類史上從來沒有

have so many people been raised out of

像中國這樣，

such great poverty as happened in China.

這麼多人擺脫赤貧

China is the world's greatest anti-poverty program

在過去的三十年，

over the last three decades.

中國的扶貧政策是世界之最

India, starting a little bit later,

印度的起步稍晚

but in 1990, begetting tremendous growth.

但在1990年，經濟也大幅成長

Incomes at that time

當時平均年收入

less than $1,000 per year.

低於一千美元

And over the next 18 years

之後的十八年

have almost tripled.

增長了快三倍

Growth of six percent a year. Absolutely incredible.

每年增長達6%，相當不可思議

Now Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa --

現在看到非洲

Sub-Saharan Africa

撒哈拉以南非洲

has been the area of the world

一直是世界上

most resistant to growth.

最抗拒發展的地區

And we can see the tragedy of Africa

從前幾個長條我們可以看到

in the first few bars here.

非洲的慘況

Growth was negative.

經濟是負成長的

People were actually getting poorer than their parents,

新一代比他們的父母還要貧窮

and sometimes even poorer than their grandparents had been.

有時候比他們的祖父母還不如

But at the end of the 20th century,

但到了20世紀末

the beginning of the 21st century,

21世紀初

we saw growth in Africa.

非洲的經濟也開始起飛

And I think, as you'll see, there's reasons for optimism,

所以我覺得我們有理由樂觀

because I believe that the best is yet to come.

我相信最美好的事正要發生

Now why.

為什麼？

On the cutting edge today

在這個時代的尖端，

it's new ideas which are driving growth.

創意思考是經濟成長的原動力

And by that I mean it's

我的意思是

products for which the research and development costs

產品的研發通常所費不貲，

are really high, and the manufacturing costs are low.

但產品的製造費用則相對低廉

More than ever before it is these types of ideas

在這時代的尖端，正是這些新思維

which are driving growth on the cutting edge.

在驅動成長

Now ideas have this amazing property.

思想有一種很棒的特性

Thomas Jefferson, I think, really expressed this quite well.

我覺得湯瑪斯．傑弗遜形容得相當貼切

He said, "He who receives an idea from me

他說：「我將思想傳授他人

receives instruction himself, without lessening mine.

他人之所得，亦無損於我之所有

As he who lights his candle at mine

猶如一人以我的燭火點燭

receives light without darkening me."

光亮與他同在，我卻不因此身處黑暗。」

Or to put it slightly differently:

換句話說，

one apple feeds one man,

一顆蘋果能滿足一人的口腹，

but an idea can feed the world.

但一個思想可讓全世界受惠

Now this is not new. This is practically not new to TEDsters.

這個並不是一個新的概念，對各位來說更加不是

This is practically the model of TED.

事實上，這個概念就是TED的典範

But what is new is that the greater function of ideas

大家不知道的是思想有更重要的功能，

is going to drive growth even more than ever before.

也就是它將帶動比以往還要高的增長。

This provides a reason why

這就是為什麼

trade and globalization

貿易和全球化

are even more important, more powerful than ever before,

比以往更加重要也更有影響力，

and are going to increase growth more than ever before.

而且將創造史上更高的經濟增長。

And to explain why this is so, I have a question.

在進一步解釋之前，我想問問各位：

Suppose that there are two diseases:

假設現在有兩種疾病

one of them is rare, the other one is common,

一種是罕見的，另一種是常見的

but if they are not treated they are equally severe.

若不處理，兩者都會導致嚴重的後果

If you had to choose, which would you rather have:

如果一定要選的話，你寧願得哪一種病？

the common disease or the rare disease?

罕見的還是常見的？

Common, the common -- I think that's absolutely right,

常見的。沒錯。

and why? Because there are more drugs to treat common diseases

為什麼？因為治療常見疾病的藥物

than there are to treat rare diseases.

比治療罕見疾病的多

The reason for this is incentives.

原因就在於研發藥物的誘因

It costs about the same to produce a new drug

每一種新藥的研發成本都差不多

whether that drug treats 1,000 people,

不管該藥物可以治療一千人

100,000 people, or a million people.

十萬人、還是一百萬人

But the revenues are much greater if the drug treats a million people.

但是治療百萬人的藥物利潤比較多

So the incentives are much larger

所以能研制療效

to produce drugs which treat more people.

的誘因比較強

To put this differently: larger markets save lives.

換句話說，較大的市場能拯救生命

In this case misery truly does love company.

愈多人可以同「病」相憐當然愈好

Now think about the following:

想想看：

if China and India were as rich as the United States is today,

如果中國和印度能夠像現在的美國般富裕，

the market for cancer drugs would be eight times larger than it is now.

癌症藥物市場將會比現在大上八倍。

Now we are not there yet, but it is happening.

這個假設尚未成真，但不遠矣。

As other countries become richer

隨著愈來愈多國家開始富裕，

the demand for these pharmaceuticals

對這些藥物的需求

is going to increase tremendously.

也將顯著上升

And that means an increase incentive to do research and development,

這意味著投入研發的誘因增加，

which benefits everyone in the world.

對全世界來說將是雨露均霑。

Larger markets increase the incentive

市場愈大，

to produce all kinds of ideas,

創造思想的誘因愈多

whether it's software, whether it's a computer chip,

不管是軟體、電腦晶片，

whether it's a new design.

還是新設計，都是如此。

For the Hollywood people in the audience,

從台下好萊塢的觀眾角度來看，

this even explains why action movies

這個道理更說明了為什麼

have larger budgets than comedies:

動作片的預算永遠比喜劇片的多

it's because action movies translate easier

這是因為動作片比較容易

into other languages and other cultures,

翻譯成其他語言和融入其他文化。

so the market for those movies is larger.

因此動作片的市場比較大，

People are willing to invest more,

投資者願意投資較多金錢，

and the budgets are larger.

而預算自然比較多。

Alright. Well if larger markets increase the incentive

好，既然大市場可以增加誘因

to produce new ideas,

激發新思想，

how do we maximize that incentive?

那我們該如何使誘因發揮最大的效果呢？

It's by having one world market, by globalizing the world.

就是藉由單一的全球市場和全球化。

The way I like to put this is:

我喜歡這麼說：

one idea. Ideas are meant to be shared,

一個思想，思想原是用來分享的，

so one idea can serve one world, one market.

所以一個思想可以分享給一個世界、一個市場

One idea, one world, one market.

一個思想、一個世界、一個市場。

Well how else can we create new ideas?

我們還能如何創造新的思想？

That's one reason.

方法之一是

Globalize trade.

全球化、貿易

How else can we create new ideas?

那我們還能如何創造新的思想？

Well, more idea creators.

更多的創意人才

Now idea creators, they come from all walks of life.

各行各業都有創意人才，

Artists and innovators -- many of the people you've seen on this stage.

不管是藝術家還是改革者，當中很多人都曾站在這個舞台

I'm going to focus on scientists and engineers

我今天要特別提科學家和工程師

because I have some data on that, and I'm a data person.

因為我有這方面的數據，我做什麼都講數據

Now, today, less than one-tenth of one percent

今天全世界的科學家和工程師

of the world's population are scientists and engineers.

不到世界人口的千分之一

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

The United States has been an idea leader.

美國一直是思想的先驅

A large fraction of those people are in the United States.

科學和理工人才大部分都來自美國

But the U.S. is losing its idea leadership.

但是美國的地位正漸漸被取代，

And for that I am very grateful.

對此我很樂見其成

That is a good thing.

我覺得這是一件好事

It is fortunate that we are becoming less of an idea leader

幸好我們可以卸下一點引領思想的責任，

because for too long the United States,

因為美國

and a handful of other developed countries,

和其他少數已開發國家

have shouldered the entire burden

一直以來都一肩扛起

of research and development.

研發的工作

But consider the following:

但想想看：

if the world as a whole were as wealthy as the United States is now

如果全世界和現在的美國一樣富裕，

there would be more than five times as many scientists and engineers

科學家和工程師的人數會是現在的五倍以上，

contributing to ideas which benefit everyone,

他們將貢獻於人人都能受惠和

which are shared by everyone.

分享的思想

I think of the great Indian mathematician, Ramanujan.

我想到印度偉大的數學家拉瑪奴江

How many Ramanujans are there in India today

印度現在還有多少個拉瑪奴江

toiling in the fields, barely able to feed themselves,

他們原本可以帶給這個世界溫飽

when they could be feeding the world?

現在卻只能在田裡苦幹，只求養活自己？

Now we're not there yet.

這世界還未到達同一富裕的時代，

But it is going to happen in this century.

但我相信21世紀就是時候

The real tragedy of the last century is this:

什麼是上個世紀最大的悲劇？

if you think about the world's population

如果將世界人口

as a giant computer, a massively parallel processor,

比喻為一個超級電腦，或巨型平行處理器

then the great tragedy has been

那最大的悲劇就是

that billions of our processors have been off line.

當中好幾十億個處理器都沒有連上線

But in this century China is coming on line.

但本世紀，中國開始連上線

India is coming on line.

印度開始連上線

Africa is coming on line.

非洲也開始連上線

We will see an Einstein in Africa in this century.

我們會在非洲見到另一個愛因斯坦

Here is just some data. This is China.

我們看一些數據，這是中國

1996: less than one million

1996年，中國每年的大學新生

new university students in China per year;

不到一百萬人

2006: over five million.

2006年則超過五百萬人

Now think what this means.

這意味著什麼？

This means we all benefit when another country gets rich.

這意味著，當其他國家變富裕，我們也跟著受惠

We should not fear other countries becoming wealthy.

我們不該害怕其他國家變富有

That is something that we should embrace --

而是應該歡迎

a wealthy China, a wealthy India, a wealthy Africa.

富裕的中國、富裕的印度、富裕的非洲

We need a greater demand for ideas --

我們需要更多對思想的渴求，

those larger markets I was talking about earlier --

那些更大的市場，

and a greater supply of ideas for the world.

並為世界提供更多思想

Now you can see some of the reasons why I'm optimistic.

這就是我為什麼這麼樂觀的原因

Globalization is increasing the demand

全球化使我們對思想的需求

for ideas, the incentive to create new ideas.

以及創造思想的誘因增多

Investments in education are increasing the supply of new ideas.

對教育的投資增加了新思想的供應

In fact if you look at world history

其實回頭看世界歷史，

you can see some reasons for optimism.

各位會發現我們有更多理由保持樂觀

From about the beginnings of humanity

大約從人類起源開始

to 1500: zero economic growth, nothing.

到1500年以前，全球經濟成長是零

1500 to 1800: maybe a little bit of economic growth,

1500年到1800年，可能有一點經濟成長

but less in a century

但一個世紀的成長率

than you expect to see in a year today.

比現在一年的成長率還要低

1900s: maybe one percent.

1900年代的經濟成長率可能是1%

Twentieth century: a little bit over two percent.

20世紀的成長率可能比2%多一點

Twenty-first century could easily be 3.3, even higher percent.

21世紀可能輕易就能達到3.3%，甚至更高

Even at that rate,

光以這樣的成長率

by 2100 average GDP per capita

到了2100年，全球平均國內生產毛額

in the world will be $200,000.

每人將會達20萬美元

That's not U.S. GDP per capita, which will be over a million,

美國的每人平均國內生產毛額會超過100萬美元

but world GDP per capita -- $200,000.

每人平均國內生產毛額達20萬美元

That's not that far.

不算是遙不可及

We won't make it.

我們等不到那時候

But some of our grandchildren probably will.

但是我們的子孫或許可以

And I should say,

而且我得說

I think this is a rather modest prediction.

這還是很保守的估計

In Kurzweilian terms this is gloomy.

用科茲威爾的術語來說，這叫悲慘的估計

In Kurzweilian terms I'm like the Eeyore of economic growth.

用這比較，我根本是經濟界的屹耳（小熊維尼的悲觀驢子朋友）

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Alright what about problems?

那過去的那些問題呢？

What about a great depression?

經濟大蕭條呢？

Well let's take a look. Let's take a look at the Great Depression.

我們現在來看看經濟大蕭條

Here is GDP per capita

這是1900年到1929年

from 1900 to 1929.

美國的每人平均國內生產毛額

Now let's imagine that you were an economist in 1929,

現在各位想像自己是1929年的經濟學家，

trying to forecast future growth for the United States,

試著要預測美國未來的經濟增長，

not knowing that the economy was about to go off a cliff,

你不知道經濟馬上就要跌落谷底，

not knowing that we were about to enter

不知道我們就要進入

the greatest economic disaster certainly in the 20th century.

20世紀最大的經濟災難。

What would you have predicted, not knowing this?

在不知道的情況下你會有什麼樣的預測？

If you had based your prediction, your forecast

如果你的預測或推算是建立在

on 1900 to 1929

1900年到1929年的資料上，

you'd have predicted something like this.

你的預測會是紅色那條線。

If you'd been a little more optimistic --

如果你比較樂觀，

say, based upon the Roaring Twenties -- you'd have said this.

如以咆哮的20年代為根據，那你的預測會是黑色那條線。

So what actually happened?

結果事實是什麼？

We went off a cliff but we recovered.

我們跌落谷底，但又爬了起來。

In fact in the second half of the 20th century

事實上在20世紀下半葉，

growth was even higher than anything you would have predicted

增長是比你基於20世紀上半葉

based upon the first half of the 20th century.

作的任何預期還要高。

So growth can wash away

所以就算遇上大蕭條

even what appears to be a great depression.

我們也能靠經濟增長扳回一城。

Alright. What else?

好，還有什麼？

Oil. Oil. This was a big topic.

石油，石油，這是一個大議題。

When I was writing up my notes oil was $140 per barrel.

我還在寫講稿的時候，石油每桶是140塊美元。

So people were asking a question. They were saying,

那時候大家就問：

"Is China drinking our milkshake?"

「中國在喝我們的奶昔嗎？」（改編自電影《黑金企業》的經典台詞）

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And there is some truth to this,

這句話也有幾分道理，

in the sense that we have something of a finite resource,

因為有些資源並非取之不盡，

and increased growth is going to push up demand for that.

而經濟成長將會增加對資源的需求

But I think I don't have to tell this audience

但不用我說各位也知道，

that a higher price of oil is not necessarily a bad thing.

高油價不見得是一件壞事。

Moreover, as everyone knows,

而且大家都知道

look -- it's energy, not oil, which counts.

重要的是能源，不是石油。

And higher oil prices mean

油價上漲代表

a greater incentive to invest in energy R&D.

投資能源研發的誘因增加了。

You can see this in the data.

各位可以從資料上看到

As oil prices go up, energy patents go up.

隨著油價上漲，能源專利也愈多。

The world is much better equipped

今天這個世界更加有能力

to overcome an increase in the price of oil

去克服油價上漲的問題。

today, than ever in the past,

這是過去所無法比擬的。

because of what I'm talking about.

原因就是我所說過的

One idea, one world, one market.

一個思想、一個世界、一個市場

So I'm optimistic

所以我很看好未來，

so long as we hew to these two ideas:

只要我們堅持以下兩點：

to keep globalizing world markets,

保持市場的全球化，

keep extending cooperation across national boundaries,

持續跨國界的合作，

and keep investing in education.

並且繼續投資教育。

Now the United States has a particularly important role

現在美國有一個

to play in this:

特別重要的角色

to keep our education system globalized,

那就是使我們的教育系統全球化，

to keep our education system open to students from all over the world,

把我們的教育系統開放給世界各地的學生

because our education system

因為我們的教育系統

is the candle

就是那把蠟燭

that other students come to light their own candles.

用來提供其他學生點燃他們的蠟燭

Now remember here what Jefferson said.

記住傑弗遜曾說過的。

Jefferson said, "When they come

他說，如果有人

and light their candles at ours,

用我們的燭火點燭，

they gain light, and we are not darkened."

光亮與他們同在，我們卻不因此身處黑暗。

But Jefferson wasn't quite right, was he?

但傑弗遜說的也不完全對，不是嗎？

Because the truth is,

因為事實是

when they light their candles at ours,

當他們用我們的燭火點蠟燭，

there is twice as much light available for everyone.

每個人都得到兩倍的光亮

So my view is: Be optimistic.

所以我認為要保持樂觀

Spread the ideas. Spread the light.

傳播思想，散播光明

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）