Alex Tabarrok on how ideas trump crises

63,734 views ใƒป 2009-04-27

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Sun A Cho ๊ฒ€ํ† : Clair Han
00:12
The first half of the 20th century
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20์„ธ๊ธฐ์˜ ์ฒซ ๋ฐ˜์„ธ๊ธฐ๋Š”
00:16
was an absolute disaster in human affairs,
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์ธ๋ฅ˜์‚ฌ์— ์žˆ์–ด ์™„์ „ํ•œ ๋Œ€์žฌ๋‚œ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:19
a cataclysm.
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ํ•œ๋งˆ๋””๋กœ ๊ฒฉ๋™์˜ ์‹œ๊ธฐ์˜€์ฃ .
00:21
We had the First World War,
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1์ฐจ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋Œ€์ „์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ๊ณ 
00:24
the Great Depression,
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๋Œ€๊ณตํ™ฉ,
00:26
the Second World War
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2์ฐจ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋Œ€์ „๋„ ์žˆ์—ˆ์ฃ .
00:28
and the rise of the communist nations.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ณต์‚ฐ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๋“ฑ์žฅํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:31
And each one of these forces
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์ด๋“ค ๊ฐ๊ฐ์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ ฅ์ด
00:33
split the world, tore the world apart,
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์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ถ„ํ• ํ•˜๊ณ , ์‚ฐ์‚ฐ์ด ๋ถ„์—ด์‹œ์ผฐ์œผ๋ฉฐ,
00:35
divided the world.
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๊ฐˆ๋ผ๋†“์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:38
And they threw up walls --
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์žฅ๋ฒฝ์ด ์„ธ์›Œ์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:40
political walls, trade walls,
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์ •์น˜์  ์žฅ๋ฒฝ, ๋ฌด์—ญ ์žฅ๋ฒฝ,
00:42
transportation walls,
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๊ตํ†ต ์žฅ๋ฒฝ
00:44
communication walls, iron curtains --
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ํ†ต์‹  ์žฅ๋ฒฝ, ์ฒ ์˜ ์žฅ๋ง‰์ด ์„ธ์›Œ์ ธ
00:47
which divided peoples and nations.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๊ณผ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค์„ ๋ถ„๋ฆฌ์‹œ์ผฐ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:51
It was only in the second half of the 20th century
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20์„ธ๊ธฐ์˜ ๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€ ๋ฐ˜์„ธ๊ธฐ์— ์ด๋ฅด๋Ÿฌ์„œ์•ผ
00:55
that we slowly began to pull ourselves
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์„œ์„œํžˆ ์Šค์Šค๋กœ๋ฅผ
00:58
out of this abyss.
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์‹ฌ์—ฐ์—์„œ ๋Œ์–ด๋‚ด๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:01
Trade walls began to come tumbling down.
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๋ฌด์—ญ ์žฅ๋ฒฝ๋“ค์ด ๋ฌด๋„ˆ์ ธ ๋‚ด๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:04
Here are some data on tariffs:
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๋ฌด์—ญ ๊ด€์„ธ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์‹œ๋ฉด,
01:06
starting at 40 percent, coming down to less than 5 percent.
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40%์—์„œ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜์—ฌ 5% ๋ฏธ๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚ด๋ ค๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:09
We globalized the world. And what does that mean?
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒํ™”ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ญ˜ ์˜๋ฏธํ• ๊นŒ์š”?
01:12
It means that we extended cooperation
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ˜‘๋ ฅ์˜ ๋ฒ”์œ„๋ฅผ
01:15
across national boundaries;
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๊ตญ๊ฒฝ์„ ์ดˆ์›”ํ•˜์—ฌ ํ™•์žฅํ–ˆ์Œ์„ ๋œปํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:17
we made the world more cooperative.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ข€ ๋” ํ˜‘์กฐ์ ์ธ ์„ธ์ƒ์„ ๋งŒ๋“ ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
01:20
Transportation walls came tumbling down.
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๊ตํ†ต์˜ ์žฅ๋ฒฝ๋„ ๋ฌด๋„ˆ์ ธ ๋‚ด๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:24
You know in 1950 the typical ship carried
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1950๋…„์—๋Š” ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ์„ ๋ฐ•์ด
01:27
5,000 to 10,000 tons worth of goods.
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5์ฒœ์—์„œ 1๋งŒํ†ค์— ๋‹ฌํ•˜๋Š” ํ™”๋ฌผ์„ ์šด๋ฐ˜ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:31
Today a container ship can carry 150,000 tons;
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ์ปจํ…Œ์ด๋„ˆ ์„ ๋ฐ• ํ•œ ์ฒ™์€ 15๋งŒํ†ค์„ ์šด๋ฐ˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:35
it can be manned with a smaller crew;
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์ข€ ๋” ์ ์€ ์ธ์›์œผ๋กœ
01:37
and unloaded faster than ever before.
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ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ํ™”๋ฌผ์„ ํ•˜์—ญํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:40
Communication walls, I don't have to tell you -- the Internet --
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ํ†ต์‹  ์žฅ๋ฒฝ์€, ๊ตณ์ด ์–ธ๊ธ‰ํ•  ํ•„์š”๋„ ์—†๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ, ์ธํ„ฐ๋„ท์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด
01:43
have come tumbling down.
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๋ฌด๋„ˆ์ ธ ๋‚ด๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:45
And of course the iron curtains,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฌผ๋ก  ์ฒ ์˜ ์žฅ๋ง‰๋“ค,
01:47
political walls have come tumbling down.
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์ •์น˜์  ์žฅ๋ฒฝ๋“ค๋„ ๋ฌด๋„ˆ์ ธ ๋‚ด๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:51
Now all of this has been tremendous for the world.
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์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ์„ธ๊ณ„์— ์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์ณค์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:55
Trade has increased.
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๊ต์—ญ์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ์ฃ 
01:57
Here is just a little bit of data.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์‹œ์ฃ .
01:59
In 1990, exports from China to the United States:
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1990๋…„ ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๋Œ€๋ฏธ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์€
02:01
15 billion dollars.
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150์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ •๋„์˜€๋Š”๋ฐ
02:03
By 2007: over 300 billion dollars.
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2007๋…„์—๋Š” 3์ฒœ์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์— ๋‹ฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:07
And perhaps most remarkably,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฌด์—‡๋ณด๋‹ค ๋†€๋ž๊ฒŒ๋„
02:10
at the beginning of the 21st century,
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21์„ธ๊ธฐ ์ดˆ์—
02:12
really for the first time in modern history,
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๊ทผ๋Œ€ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ฒ˜์Œ์œผ๋กœ
02:16
growth extended to almost all parts of the world.
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์„ฑ์žฅ์ด ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์ง€์—ญ์œผ๋กœ ํ™•์žฅ๋์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:20
So China, I've already mentioned,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ค‘๊ตญ์€, ์•ž์„œ ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฐ ๊ฒƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
02:22
beginning around 1978, around the time of the death of Mao,
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1978๋…„, ๋งˆ์˜ค์ฉŒ๋‘ฅ์ด ์‚ฌ๋งํ•œ ์ฆˆ์Œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
02:25
growth -- ten percent a year.
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๋งค๋…„ 10%์”ฉ ์„ฑ์žฅํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:27
Year after year after year,
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ํ•œ ํ•ด, ๋‘ ํ•ด๋ฅผ ์ง€๋‚˜ ๊ณ„์†ํ•ด์„œ,
02:29
absolutely incredible.
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๊ฒฝ์ด์ ์ธ ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด์ฃ .
02:31
Never before in human history
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์ธ๋ฅ˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์—์„œ
02:35
have so many people been raised out of
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์ด์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด
02:37
such great poverty as happened in China.
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์ด์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๊ทน์‹ฌํ•œ ๋นˆ๊ณค์—์„œ ๋ฒ—์–ด๋‚œ ์ „๋ก€๊ฐ€ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ „์—๋Š” ์—†์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:40
China is the world's greatest anti-poverty program
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์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ๋นˆ๊ณคํ‡ด์น˜ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ์„
02:43
over the last three decades.
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์ง€๋‚œ 30๋…„๊ฐ„ ์‹คํ˜„ํ•œ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:45
India, starting a little bit later,
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์ธ๋„์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๋” ๋Šฆ๊ฒŒ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
02:47
but in 1990, begetting tremendous growth.
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1990๋…„์— ์ด๋ฅด๋Ÿฌ ๋†€๋ž๊ฒŒ ์„ฑ์žฅํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:50
Incomes at that time
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๋‹น์‹œ ์†Œ๋“์€
02:52
less than $1,000 per year.
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์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์ฒœ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์—๋„ ๋ฏธ์น˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:54
And over the next 18 years
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด ๋•Œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 18๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ
02:56
have almost tripled.
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3๋ฐฐ ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์ด ์„ฑ์žฅํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:58
Growth of six percent a year. Absolutely incredible.
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์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ  6%. ์ •๋ง ๊ฒฝ์ด์ ์ด์ฃ .
03:01
Now Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa --
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๋‹ค์Œ์€ ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ์‚ฌํ•˜๋ผ ์ด๋‚จ์„ ๋ณด๋ฉด
03:04
Sub-Saharan Africa
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์‚ฌํ•˜๋ผ ์‚ฌ๋ง‰ ์ด๋‚จ ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ์ง€์—ญ์€
03:06
has been the area of the world
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์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ์ง€์—ญ ์ค‘์—์„œ
03:08
most resistant to growth.
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด ๋”๋”˜ ๊ณณ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:11
And we can see the tragedy of Africa
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด์˜ ๋น„๊ทน์„
03:14
in the first few bars here.
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๋ช‡ ๊ฐœ์˜ ๋ฐ”๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„๋กœ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:16
Growth was negative.
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์„ฑ์žฅ์ด ๋งˆ์ด๋„ˆ์Šค์˜€์ฃ .
03:18
People were actually getting poorer than their parents,
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์ด ๊ณณ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋ถ€๋ชจ ์„ธ๋Œ€๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๊ฐ€๋‚œํ•ด์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:21
and sometimes even poorer than their grandparents had been.
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์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๋Š” ํ• ์•„๋ฒ„์ง€ ์„ธ๋Œ€๋ณด๋‹ค๋„ ๊ฐ€๋‚œํ•ด์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:24
But at the end of the 20th century,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ค๊ฐ€ 20์„ธ๊ธฐ ๋ง
03:26
the beginning of the 21st century,
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21์„ธ๊ธฐ ์ดˆ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
03:28
we saw growth in Africa.
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์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด์—๋„ ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:31
And I think, as you'll see, there's reasons for optimism,
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์ด์ œ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ๋ณด์‹œ๊ฒŒ ๋˜๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ ์ œ ๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์—๋Š” ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:33
because I believe that the best is yet to come.
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์ €๋Š” ์•„์ง ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์ˆœ๊ฐ„์€ ์˜ค์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:36
Now why.
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์ž, ์™œ ๊ทธ๋Ÿด๊นŒ์š”?
03:38
On the cutting edge today
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ์‚ฐ์—…์˜ ์ตœ์ฒจ๋‹จ์—์„œ
03:40
it's new ideas which are driving growth.
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์„ฑ์žฅ์„ ์ด๋„๋Š” ๊ฑด ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์•„์ด๋””์–ด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:42
And by that I mean it's
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๋ฌด์Šจ ๋ง์ด๋ƒ๋ฉด
03:44
products for which the research and development costs
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์ œํ’ˆ ์ค‘์— ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋น„๊ฐ€
03:47
are really high, and the manufacturing costs are low.
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์•„์ฃผ ๋†’๊ณ  ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋น„์šฉ์€ ๋‚ฎ์€ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:50
More than ever before it is these types of ideas
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๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ์–ด๋Š ๋•Œ๋ณด๋‹ค๋„ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์œ ํ˜•์˜ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๊ฐ€
03:52
which are driving growth on the cutting edge.
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์‚ฐ์—…์˜ ์ตœ์ฒจ๋‹จ์—์„œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์„ ์ด๋Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:55
Now ideas have this amazing property.
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์•„์ด๋””์–ด์—๋Š” ๋†€๋ผ์šด ์†์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:57
Thomas Jefferson, I think, really expressed this quite well.
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ํ† ๋งˆ์Šค ์ œํผ์Šจ์ด ์ด ์†์„ฑ์„ ์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ ์ž˜ ํ‘œํ˜„ํ–ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
04:00
He said, "He who receives an idea from me
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๊ทธ๊ฐ€ ๋งํ•˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ "๋‚˜์—๊ฒŒ์„œ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€
04:04
receives instruction himself, without lessening mine.
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์Šค์Šค๋กœ ์ง€์‹์„ ์–ป์œผ๋ฉด์„œ๋„ ๋‚˜์˜ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋ฅผ ๊ฐ์†Œ์‹œํ‚ค์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค.
04:08
As he who lights his candle at mine
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๋‚˜์˜ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋กœ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์ด›๋ถˆ์„ ์ผœ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€
04:11
receives light without darkening me."
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๋น›์„ ์–ป์œผ๋ฉด์„œ๋„ ๋‚˜๋ฅผ ์–ด๋‘ก๊ฒŒํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค."
04:14
Or to put it slightly differently:
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์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ์กฐ๊ธˆ ๋‹ค๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์„ํ•˜๋ฉด
04:16
one apple feeds one man,
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ํ•œ ๊ฐœ์˜ ์‚ฌ๊ณผ๋กœ๋Š” ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์„ ๋จน์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ
04:18
but an idea can feed the world.
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ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋กœ๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋จน์—ฌ ์‚ด๋ฆด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:21
Now this is not new. This is practically not new to TEDsters.
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์ด๊ฑด ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์–˜๊ธฐ๋Š” ์•„๋‹ˆ์ฃ . TED์ธ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ์ „ํ˜€ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:24
This is practically the model of TED.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ƒ TED์˜ ๋ชจ๋ธ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ .
04:26
But what is new is that the greater function of ideas
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๊ฐ€ ๋ณด๋‹ค ํฐ ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ 
04:30
is going to drive growth even more than ever before.
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๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ์„ฑ์žฅ์„ ์ฃผ๋„ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:35
This provides a reason why
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์ด์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ด์œ ๋กœ
04:37
trade and globalization
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๊ต์—ญ๊ณผ ๊ตญ์ œํ™”๊ฐ€
04:39
are even more important, more powerful than ever before,
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๊ทธ ์–ด๋Š ๋•Œ๋ณด๋‹ค ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋” ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•˜๋ฉฐ
04:42
and are going to increase growth more than ever before.
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๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ์–ด๋Š ๋•Œ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋†’์€ ์„ฑ์žฅ์„ ์ด๋Œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:45
And to explain why this is so, I have a question.
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๊ทธ ์ด์œ ๋ฅผ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋จผ์ € ์งˆ๋ฌธ์„ ํ•˜๋‚˜ ํ•˜๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:48
Suppose that there are two diseases:
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๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์งˆ๋ณ‘์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•ด ๋ณด์ฃ .
04:51
one of them is rare, the other one is common,
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ํ•˜๋‚˜๋Š” ์•„์ฃผ ํฌ๊ท€ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋Š” ํ”ํ•œ ๋ณ‘์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:53
but if they are not treated they are equally severe.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์น˜๋ฃŒํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด ๋‘˜์€ ๋˜‘๊ฐ™์ด ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:56
If you had to choose, which would you rather have:
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ํ•˜๋‚˜๋ฅผ ๊ณจ๋ผ์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ณ ๋ฅด์‹œ๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
04:59
the common disease or the rare disease?
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ํ”ํ•œ ์งˆ๋ณ‘์ด์š”? ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ํฌ๊ท€ํ•œ ์งˆ๋ณ‘์ด์š”?
05:03
Common, the common -- I think that's absolutely right,
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ํ”ํ•œ ์งˆ๋ณ‘. ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ฃ , ํ”ํ•œ ์งˆ๋ณ‘์„ ์„ ํƒํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ๋งž์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:05
and why? Because there are more drugs to treat common diseases
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์™œ๋ƒ๊ตฌ์š”? ์„ธ์ƒ์—๋Š” ํ”ํ•œ ์งˆ๋ณ‘์„ ๊ณ ์น˜๋Š” ์•ฝ์ด
05:09
than there are to treat rare diseases.
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ํฌ๊ท€ํ•œ ๋ณ‘์„ ๊ณ ์น˜๋Š” ์•ฝ๋ณด๋‹ค ํœ ์”ฌ ๋งŽ์œผ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
05:12
The reason for this is incentives.
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๊ทธ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ์ธ์„ผํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:14
It costs about the same to produce a new drug
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์‹ ์•ฝ์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•  ๋•Œ ๊ทธ ๋น„์šฉ์€
05:17
whether that drug treats 1,000 people,
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์ด ์•ฝ์ด ์ฒœ๋ช…์„ ๊ณ ์น˜๋“ 
05:20
100,000 people, or a million people.
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์‹ญ๋งŒ๋ช…์„ ๊ณ ์น˜๋“ , ํ˜น์€ ๋ฐฑ๋งŒ๋ช…์„ ๊ณ ์น˜๋“  ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:23
But the revenues are much greater if the drug treats a million people.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ๋ฐฑ๋งŒ๋ช…์„ ๊ณ ์น  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๋•Œ ๊ทธ ์ด๋“์ด ํœ ์”ฌ ํฌ๊ฒ ์ฃ .
05:26
So the incentives are much larger
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ธ์„ผํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ๊ฐ€ ๋” ํฐ ์ชฝ์€
05:29
to produce drugs which treat more people.
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๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์„ ์น˜๋ฃŒํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์•ฝ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:33
To put this differently: larger markets save lives.
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๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งํ•ด์„œ ๋” ํฐ ์‹œ์žฅ์ด ์ƒ๋ช…์„ ๊ตฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:37
In this case misery truly does love company.
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์ด ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ๋™๋ณ‘์ƒ๋ จ์ด๋ž€ ๋ง์ด ๋”ฑ ๋งž๋Š” ์…ˆ์ด์ฃ .
05:41
Now think about the following:
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ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.
05:43
if China and India were as rich as the United States is today,
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๋งŒ์ผ ์ค‘๊ตญ๊ณผ ์ธ๋„๊ฐ€ ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚ ์˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๋งŒํผ ํ’์š”๋กœ์› ๋‹ค๋ฉด
05:47
the market for cancer drugs would be eight times larger than it is now.
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์•”์น˜๋ฃŒ์ œ ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ํ˜„์žฌ๋ณด๋‹ค 8๋ฐฐ๋Š” ๋” ์ปธ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:53
Now we are not there yet, but it is happening.
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์•„์ง์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ์ง€๋งŒ ์ด์ œ ํ˜„์‹ค๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:55
As other countries become richer
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์ด ํ’์š”๋กœ์›Œ์ง€๋ฉด์„œ
05:58
the demand for these pharmaceuticals
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์ด์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ์˜์•ฝํ’ˆ์˜ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€
06:00
is going to increase tremendously.
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์—„์ฒญ๋‚˜๊ฒŒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:02
And that means an increase incentive to do research and development,
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์ฆ‰, ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์˜ ์ธ์„ผํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ 
06:05
which benefits everyone in the world.
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์ด๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์ด์ต์ด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:08
Larger markets increase the incentive
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์‹œ์žฅ์ด ์ปค์ง€๋ฉด ์ธ์„ผํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ๊ฐ€ ์ปค์ ธ์„œ
06:10
to produce all kinds of ideas,
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๋ชจ๋“  ์ข…๋ฅ˜์˜ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋ฅผ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ƒ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:12
whether it's software, whether it's a computer chip,
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๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ์†Œํ”„ํŠธ์›จ์–ด๋“  ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ์นฉ์ด๋“ 
06:14
whether it's a new design.
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๋˜๋Š” ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋””์ž์ธ์ด๋“  ์ƒ๊ด€์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:16
For the Hollywood people in the audience,
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์‹  ํ—๋ฆฌ์šฐ๋“œ ๊ด€๊ณ„์ž๋“ค์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์—๋Š”
06:18
this even explains why action movies
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์ด ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ๋กœ ์™œ ์•ก์…˜ ์˜ํ™”๊ฐ€
06:20
have larger budgets than comedies:
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์ฝ”๋ฏธ๋””๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ํฐ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์„ ๋ฐ›๋Š”์ง€ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:22
it's because action movies translate easier
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์•ก์…˜ ์˜ํ™”๊ฐ€ ์ข€ ๋” ์‰ฝ๊ฒŒ
06:25
into other languages and other cultures,
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์–ธ์–ด์™€ ๋ฌธํ™”๋กœ ๋ฒˆ์—ญ๋˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
06:27
so the market for those movies is larger.
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์•ก์…˜ ์˜ํ™” ์‹œ์žฅ์ด ๋” ํฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:29
People are willing to invest more,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ธฐ๊บผ์ด ๋” ํˆฌ์žํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๊ณ 
06:31
and the budgets are larger.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ ๋˜ํ•œ ํฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:33
Alright. Well if larger markets increase the incentive
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๋‹ค๋ฉด ๋งŒ์ผ ์‹œ์žฅ์ด ์ปค์งˆ์ˆ˜๋ก
06:36
to produce new ideas,
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋ฅผ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•˜๋Š” ์ธ์„ผํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
06:38
how do we maximize that incentive?
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๊ทธ ์ธ์„ผํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ๋ฅผ ๊ทน๋Œ€ํ™”ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
06:41
It's by having one world market, by globalizing the world.
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๋‹ต์€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒํ™”๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•œ ๋‹จ์ผํ•œ ์„ธ๊ณ„์‹œ์žฅ ๊ตฌ์ถ•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:46
The way I like to put this is:
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์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ํ‘œํ˜„ํ•  ๋•Œ,
06:48
one idea. Ideas are meant to be shared,
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ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด, ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋Š” ์„œ๋กœ ๊ณต์œ ๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜์ฃ ,
06:51
so one idea can serve one world, one market.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์„ธ๊ณ„, ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ๊ธฐ์—ฌํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์–˜๊ธฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:56
One idea, one world, one market.
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ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด, ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์„ธ๊ณ„, ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์‹œ์žฅ
06:59
Well how else can we create new ideas?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ๋˜ ์–ด๋–ค ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
07:02
That's one reason.
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๊ทธ ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋กœ
07:04
Globalize trade.
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์„ธ๊ณ„ํ™”์™€ ๊ต์—ญ์„ ๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ .
07:06
How else can we create new ideas?
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๋˜ ์–ด๋–ค ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋ฅผ ์ฐฝ์ถœํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
07:08
Well, more idea creators.
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๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด ์ฐฝ์กฐ์ž๋“ค์ด ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉด ๋˜์ฃ .
07:10
Now idea creators, they come from all walks of life.
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์•„์ด๋””์–ด ์ฐฝ์กฐ์ž๋“ค์€ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ์˜์—ญ์—์„œ ๋‚˜์˜ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:13
Artists and innovators -- many of the people you've seen on this stage.
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์˜ˆ์ˆ ๊ฐ€๋“ค๊ณผ ํ˜์‹ ๊ฐ€๋“ค, ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ์ด ๋ฌด๋Œ€์—์„œ ๋ณธ ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:16
I'm going to focus on scientists and engineers
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์ €๋Š” ๊ทธ ์ค‘ ๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค๊ณผ ์—”์ง€๋‹ˆ์–ด๋“ค์— ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:19
because I have some data on that, and I'm a data person.
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ด€๋ จ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ  ๋˜ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋กœ ์–˜๊ธฐํ•˜๊ธธ ์ข‹์•„ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
07:22
Now, today, less than one-tenth of one percent
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ธ๊ตฌ์˜ 1%์˜ 1/10๋ณด๋‹ค ์ ์€ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€
07:27
of the world's population are scientists and engineers.
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๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค๊ณผ ์—”์ง€๋‹ˆ์–ด๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:30
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
07:32
The United States has been an idea leader.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด ๋ฆฌ๋”์˜€๊ณ 
07:35
A large fraction of those people are in the United States.
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์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค ์ค‘ ์ƒ๋‹น์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์— ์‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:38
But the U.S. is losing its idea leadership.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ด์ œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด ๋ฆฌ๋”์‰ฝ์„ ์žƒ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:43
And for that I am very grateful.
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์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ์•„์ฃผ ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:45
That is a good thing.
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์ •๋ง ์ข‹์€ ์ง•์กฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:48
It is fortunate that we are becoming less of an idea leader
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์•„์ด๋””์–ด ๋ฆฌ๋”๋กœ์„œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์—ญํ• ์ด ์•ฝํ•ด์ง€๋Š” ๊ฑด ๋‹คํ–‰์Šค๋Ÿฐ ์ผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:51
because for too long the United States,
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ์˜ค๋žซ๋™์•ˆ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ
07:53
and a handful of other developed countries,
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์†Œ์ˆ˜์˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์„ ์ง„๊ตญ๋“ค์ด
07:55
have shouldered the entire burden
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์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์˜ ๋ฌด๊ฑฐ์šด ์ง์„
07:57
of research and development.
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๋ชจ๋‘ ์งŠ์–ด์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:59
But consider the following:
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ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด์„ธ์š”.
08:02
if the world as a whole were as wealthy as the United States is now
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๋งŒ์ผ ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋งŒํผ ํ’์š”๋กœ์› ๋‹ค๋ฉด
08:05
there would be more than five times as many scientists and engineers
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ํ˜„์žฌ๋ณด๋‹ค 5๋ฐฐ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ๊ณผํ•™์ž์™€ ์—”์ง€๋‹ˆ์–ด๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ์„ ๊ฑฐ๊ณ 
08:09
contributing to ideas which benefit everyone,
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์ด๋“ค์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์ด์ต์„ ์ฃผ๊ณ 
08:13
which are shared by everyone.
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๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€ ๊ณต์œ ํ•˜๋Š” ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ–ˆ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:15
I think of the great Indian mathematician, Ramanujan.
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์ธ๋„์˜ ์œ„๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ˆ˜ํ•™์ž ๋ผ๋งˆ๋ˆ„์ž”์„ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ณด์ฃ .
08:19
How many Ramanujans are there in India today
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ์ธ๋„์— ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋งŽ์€ ์ˆ˜์˜ ๋ผ๋งˆ๋ˆ„์ž”์ด
08:23
toiling in the fields, barely able to feed themselves,
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๋…ผ๋ฐญ์—์„œ ๊ณ ์ƒํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ„์‹ ํžˆ ๋จน๊ณ ์‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
08:26
when they could be feeding the world?
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์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋จน๊ณ ์‚ด๊ฒŒ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ธ๋ฐ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
08:29
Now we're not there yet.
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์•„์ง๊นŒ์ง€๋Š” ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
08:31
But it is going to happen in this century.
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์ด๋ฒˆ ์„ธ๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ์ผ์–ด๋‚  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:34
The real tragedy of the last century is this:
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์ง€๋‚œ ์„ธ๊ธฐ์˜ ๋น„๊ทน์€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ด๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:40
if you think about the world's population
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๋งŒ์ผ ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ์ธ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ
08:44
as a giant computer, a massively parallel processor,
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๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ, ๋Œ€ํ˜• ๋ณ‘๋ ฌ ํ”„๋กœ์„ธ์„œ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
08:47
then the great tragedy has been
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์ด ๋•Œ ์ง„์ •ํ•œ ๋น„๊ทน์€
08:49
that billions of our processors have been off line.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ์ˆ˜์‹ญ์–ต ๊ฐœ์˜ ํ”„๋กœ์„ธ์„œ์— ์ „์›์ด ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:54
But in this century China is coming on line.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด๋ฒˆ ์„ธ๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ์ค‘๊ตญ์— ์ „์›์ด ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋˜๊ณ 
08:57
India is coming on line.
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์ธ๋„์—๋„ ์ „์›์ด ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:59
Africa is coming on line.
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์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด์—๋„ ์ „์›์ด ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋˜๊ตฌ์š”.
09:01
We will see an Einstein in Africa in this century.
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๊ธˆ์„ธ๊ธฐ์— ์ œ2์˜ ์•„์ธ์Šˆํƒ€์ธ์ด ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด์—์„œ ๋‚˜์˜ฌ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:06
Here is just some data. This is China.
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๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ ๋ณผ๊นŒ์š”. ์ค‘๊ตญ์ธ๋ฐ์š”
09:08
1996: less than one million
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1996๋…„์—๋Š” ๋ฐฑ๋งŒ๋ช… ๋ฏธ๋งŒ์ด
09:10
new university students in China per year;
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๋งค๋…„ ๋Œ€ํ•™์— ์ง„ํ•™ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:13
2006: over five million.
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2006๋…„์—๋Š” ์˜ค๋ฐฑ๋งŒ๋ช…์ด ๋„˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:17
Now think what this means.
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์ด๊ฒŒ ๋ญ˜ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด์„ธ์š”.
09:19
This means we all benefit when another country gets rich.
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์–ด๋Š ํ•œ ๋‚˜๋ผ๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€์ž๊ฐ€ ๋˜๋ฉด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘์—๊ฒŒ ์ด์ต์ด ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋œป์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:23
We should not fear other countries becoming wealthy.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋‚˜๋ผ๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€์œ ํ•ด์ง€๋Š” ๊ฑธ ๋‘๋ ค์›Œํ•˜๋ฉด ์•ˆ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:27
That is something that we should embrace --
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์—ฌ์•ผ์ฃ .
09:30
a wealthy China, a wealthy India, a wealthy Africa.
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๋ถ€์ž ์ค‘๊ตญ, ๋ถ€์ž ์ธ๋„, ๋ถ€์ž ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์—ฌ์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:33
We need a greater demand for ideas --
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์•„์ด๋””์–ด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ์ปค์ ธ์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:35
those larger markets I was talking about earlier --
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์•ž์„œ ์–˜๊ธฐํ–ˆ๋˜ ๋” ํฐ ์‹œ์žฅ,
09:38
and a greater supply of ideas for the world.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:42
Now you can see some of the reasons why I'm optimistic.
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์ด์ œ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋‚™๊ด€์ ์ธ ์ด์œ ๋ฅผ ์ดํ•ดํ•˜์‹ค ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:46
Globalization is increasing the demand
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๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒํ™”๋กœ ์ธํ•ด
09:48
for ideas, the incentive to create new ideas.
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์•„์ด๋””์–ด, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ธ์„ผํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ์˜ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ์ปค์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:51
Investments in education are increasing the supply of new ideas.
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๊ต์œก์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํˆฌ์ž๋กœ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๊ฐ€ ๋” ๋งŽ์ด ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:57
In fact if you look at world history
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์—ญ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด๋ฉด
09:59
you can see some reasons for optimism.
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๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์˜ ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:01
From about the beginnings of humanity
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์ธ๋ฅ˜๊ฐ€ ์‹œ์ž‘๋œ ๋•Œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
10:03
to 1500: zero economic growth, nothing.
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1500๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด ์ „ํ˜€ ์—†์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:06
1500 to 1800: maybe a little bit of economic growth,
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1500๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 1800๋…„๊นŒ์ง€๋Š” ์•„๋งˆ ์•ฝ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ๊ฒ ์ฃ 
10:10
but less in a century
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ํ•œ ์„ธ๊ธฐ ๋™์•ˆ์˜ ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด
10:12
than you expect to see in a year today.
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚ ์˜ ์ผ๋…„๊ฐ„ ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ณด๋‹ค๋„ ์ž‘์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:16
1900s: maybe one percent.
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1900๋…„๋Œ€์—๋Š” ์•ฝ 1% ์ •๋„
10:18
Twentieth century: a little bit over two percent.
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20์„ธ๊ธฐ์—๋Š” 2%๋ฅผ ์กฐ๊ธˆ ๋„˜๊ธฐ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋„ค์š”.
10:20
Twenty-first century could easily be 3.3, even higher percent.
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21์„ธ๊ธฐ์—๋Š” 3.3% ์ด์ƒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์‰ฝ๊ฒŒ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:24
Even at that rate,
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์ด ์ •๋„ ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ ๋กœ๋„
10:26
by 2100 average GDP per capita
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2100๋…„์—๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„ ํ‰๊ท  1์ธ๋‹น GDP๊ฐ€
10:29
in the world will be $200,000.
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20๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:32
That's not U.S. GDP per capita, which will be over a million,
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์ด๊ฑด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ 1์ธ๋‹น GDP๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ๋ฐฑ๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ๋„˜์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:35
but world GDP per capita -- $200,000.
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์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ 1์ธ๋‹น GDP๊ฐ€ 20๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์–˜๊น๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:38
That's not that far.
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์•„์ฃผ ๋จผ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋Š” ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:40
We won't make it.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์„ธ๋Œ€์—๋Š” ์ด๋ฃฐ ์ˆ˜ ์—†๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ
10:42
But some of our grandchildren probably will.
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์•„๋งˆ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์†์ž ์„ธ๋Œ€์—๋Š” ์ด๋ค„์งˆ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:44
And I should say,
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ์งš๊ณ  ๋„˜์–ด๊ฐˆ ๊ฒƒ์€
10:46
I think this is a rather modest prediction.
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์ด ์ •๋„๊ฐ€ ๋‹ค์†Œ ๋ณด์ˆ˜์ ์ธ ์˜ˆ์ธก์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:49
In Kurzweilian terms this is gloomy.
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๋ ˆ์ด ์ปค์ฆˆ์™€์ผ์˜ ๊ด€์ ์—์„œ ๋ณด์ž๋ฉด ์ด๊ฑด ์šฐ์šธํ•œ ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
10:54
In Kurzweilian terms I'm like the Eeyore of economic growth.
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์ปค์ฆˆ์™€์ผ์ด ๋ณผ ๋•Œ ์ €๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์˜ ์ด์š”๋ฅด(๊ณฐ๋Œ์ด ํ‘ธ์— ๋“ฑ์žฅํ•˜๋Š” ์—ผ์„ธ์  ๋‹น๋‚˜๊ท€)์ธ ์…ˆ์ด์ฃ .
10:58
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
11:01
Alright what about problems?
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์ข‹์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์—†์„๊นŒ์š”?
11:03
What about a great depression?
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๋Œ€๊ณตํ™ฉ์€ ์–ด๋• ๋‚˜์š”?
11:06
Well let's take a look. Let's take a look at the Great Depression.
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ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ๋ณผ๊นŒ์š”. ๋Œ€๊ณตํ™ฉ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด์ฃ .
11:10
Here is GDP per capita
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์ด๊ฑด 1์ธ๋‹น GDP์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:12
from 1900 to 1929.
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1900๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 1929๋…„๊นŒ์ง€.
11:15
Now let's imagine that you were an economist in 1929,
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์ž, ๋งŒ์ผ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด 1929๋…„์— ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ž์˜€๊ณ 
11:19
trying to forecast future growth for the United States,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์„ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ
11:22
not knowing that the economy was about to go off a cliff,
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๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฒผ๋ž‘ ๋์—์„œ ๊ณง ๊ณค๋‘๋ฐ•์งˆ ์น  ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ชจ๋ฅธ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•ด ๋ณด์ฃ .
11:26
not knowing that we were about to enter
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์ด์ œ ๊ณง
11:29
the greatest economic disaster certainly in the 20th century.
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20์„ธ๊ธฐ ์ตœ์•…์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์  ํ˜ผ๋ž€์ด ๋‹ฅ์น  ๊ฑธ ์ „ํ˜€ ๋ชจ๋ฅธ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
11:33
What would you have predicted, not knowing this?
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์ด ์‚ฌ์‹ค์„ ๋ชจ๋ฅธ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์–ด๋–ค ์˜ˆ์ธก์„ ํ–ˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
11:35
If you had based your prediction, your forecast
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๋งŒ์ผ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•  ๋•Œ
11:37
on 1900 to 1929
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1900๋…„์—์„œ 1929๋…„์„ ํ† ๋Œ€๋กœ ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด
11:39
you'd have predicted something like this.
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์•„๋งˆ๋„ ์ด์™€ ๋น„์Šทํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ–ˆ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:41
If you'd been a little more optimistic --
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๋งŒ์ผ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ์กฐ๊ธˆ ๋” ๋‚™๊ด€์ ์ด์—ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด
11:43
say, based upon the Roaring Twenties -- you'd have said this.
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๊ฐ€๋ น ๊ด‘๋ž€์˜ 1920๋…„๋Œ€๋ฅผ ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ๋กœ ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด, ์ด ์ •๋„๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ–ˆ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:46
So what actually happened?
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋๋‚˜์š”?
11:48
We went off a cliff but we recovered.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฒผ๋ž‘ ๋์—์„œ ๋–จ์–ด์กŒ์ง€๋งŒ ํšŒ๋ณตํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:52
In fact in the second half of the 20th century
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ 20์„ธ๊ธฐ์˜ ํ•˜๋ฐ˜์„ธ๊ธฐ์— ๋“ค์–ด
11:55
growth was even higher than anything you would have predicted
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์„ฑ์žฅ์€ ๊ทธ ๋ˆ„๊ตฌ์˜ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋ณด๋‹ค๋„ ๋†’๊ฒŒ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:59
based upon the first half of the 20th century.
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20์„ธ๊ธฐ์˜ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜์„ธ๊ธฐ์— ๋น„ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
12:02
So growth can wash away
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์€
12:04
even what appears to be a great depression.
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์‹ฌ์ง€์–ด ๋Œ€๊ณตํ•ญ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ณด์˜€๋˜ ๊ฒƒ๊นŒ์ง€๋„ ์”ป์–ด๋ฒ„๋ฆด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:07
Alright. What else?
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๋˜ ๋ญ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
12:09
Oil. Oil. This was a big topic.
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์„์œ . ์„์œ . ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ด์Šˆ์ฃ .
12:12
When I was writing up my notes oil was $140 per barrel.
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ด ์—ฐ์„ค์„ ์ค€๋น„ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์„ ๋•Œ ์œ ๊ฐ€๋Š” ๋ฐฐ๋Ÿด๋‹น 140 ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:19
So people were asking a question. They were saying,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์„ ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
12:22
"Is China drinking our milkshake?"
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"์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋ฐ€ํฌ์‰์ดํฌ๋ฅผ ๋งˆ์‹œ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฑด๊ฐ€์š”?"
12:26
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
12:27
And there is some truth to this,
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์–ด๋–ค ๋ฉด์—์„œ๋Š” ๋งž๋Š” ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:30
in the sense that we have something of a finite resource,
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์ž์›์ด ์œ ํ•œํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ด€์ ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
12:34
and increased growth is going to push up demand for that.
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๋˜ ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด ์ปค์ง€๋ฉด์„œ ๊ทธ ์ˆ˜์š”๋ฅผ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์‹œํ‚ฌ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:37
But I think I don't have to tell this audience
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค๊ป˜ ๊ตณ์ด
12:39
that a higher price of oil is not necessarily a bad thing.
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๊ณ ์œ ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ˜๋“œ์‹œ ๋‚˜์œ ๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๋Š” ๋ง์”€์„ ๋“œ๋ฆด ํ•„์š”๋Š” ์—†๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:44
Moreover, as everyone knows,
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๋”๊ตฐ๋‹ค๋‚˜ ๋ชจ๋‘๋“ค ์•Œ๊ณ  ๊ณ„์‹  ๊ฒƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
12:47
look -- it's energy, not oil, which counts.
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์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฑด ์„์œ ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
12:50
And higher oil prices mean
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ณ ์œ ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
12:52
a greater incentive to invest in energy R&D.
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์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํˆฌ์ž ์ธ์„ผํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ๊ฐ€ ์ปค์ง„๋‹ค๋Š” ๋œป์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:55
You can see this in the data.
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์ด๊ฑด ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋กœ ํ™•์ธํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:57
As oil prices go up, energy patents go up.
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์›์œ  ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ์ƒ์Šนํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ด€๋ จ ํŠนํ—ˆ๋„ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:00
The world is much better equipped
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์„ธ๊ณ„๋Š” ์˜ˆ์ „๋ณด๋‹ค
13:02
to overcome an increase in the price of oil
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์›์œ  ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์„ ๊ทน๋ณตํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก
13:04
today, than ever in the past,
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ํ›จ์”ฌ ์ž˜ ์ค€๋น„๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:06
because of what I'm talking about.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
13:08
One idea, one world, one market.
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ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด, ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์„ธ๊ณ„, ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์‹œ์žฅ.
13:12
So I'm optimistic
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €๋Š” ๋‚™๊ด€์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:15
so long as we hew to these two ideas:
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๋‹จ, ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋ฅผ ๊ณ ์ˆ˜ํ•  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์— ํ•œํ•ด์„œ์ฃ .
13:17
to keep globalizing world markets,
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์„ธ๊ณ„ ์‹œ์žฅ์„ ๊ณ„์† ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒํ™”ํ•˜๊ณ 
13:19
keep extending cooperation across national boundaries,
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๊ตญ๊ฒฝ์„ ์ดˆ์›”ํ•˜์—ฌ ํ˜‘๋ ฅ์„ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•˜๊ณ 
13:23
and keep investing in education.
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๋˜ ๊ต์œก์— ๊ณ„์† ํˆฌ์žํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:26
Now the United States has a particularly important role
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ํŠนํžˆ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์—ญํ• ์„
13:29
to play in this:
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ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:32
to keep our education system globalized,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ต์œก์ œ๋„๋ฅผ ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒํ™”ํ•˜๊ณ 
13:35
to keep our education system open to students from all over the world,
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์ „์„ธ๊ณ„ ํ•™์ƒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๊ต์œก์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ๊ณ„์† ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:39
because our education system
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ต์œก์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด์•ผ๋ง๋กœ
13:41
is the candle
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์ด›๋ถˆ์ด๋ฉฐ
13:43
that other students come to light their own candles.
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์™ธ๊ตญ์˜ ํ•™์ƒ๋“ค์ด ์™€์„œ ์ด๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์ด›๋ถˆ์„ ๋ฐํž ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:48
Now remember here what Jefferson said.
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์ œํผ์Šจ์ด ํ•œ ๋ง์„ ๊ธฐ์–ตํ•ด ๋ณด์„ธ์š”.
13:51
Jefferson said, "When they come
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์ œํผ์Šจ์€ "๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์™€์„œ
13:54
and light their candles at ours,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ด›๋ถˆ๋กœ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ๋ถˆ์„ ๋ฐํžˆ๋ฉด
13:57
they gain light, and we are not darkened."
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ๋น›์„ ์–ป๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์–ด๋‘์›Œ์ง€์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค"๋ผ๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:02
But Jefferson wasn't quite right, was he?
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ œํผ์Šจ์˜ ๋ง๋„ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ์˜ณ๋‹ค๊ณ ๋Š” ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๊ฒ ์ฃ ?
14:05
Because the truth is,
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€
14:08
when they light their candles at ours,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ด›๋ถˆ๋กœ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ๋ถˆ์„ ๋ฐํžˆ๋ฉด
14:12
there is twice as much light available for everyone.
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๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋‘ ๋ฐฐ๋กœ ๋งŽ์€ ๋น›์ด ์ƒ๊ฒจ๋‚˜๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
14:16
So my view is: Be optimistic.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €๋Š” ๋‚™๊ด€์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:20
Spread the ideas. Spread the light.
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์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋ฅผ ํผ๋œจ๋ฆฌ์„ธ์š”. ๋น›์„ ํผ๋œจ๋ฆฌ์„ธ์š”.
14:23
Thank you.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:25
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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