Malcolm Gladwell: The strange tale of the Norden bombsight

翻译人员: Chunxiang Qian 校对人员: Zhangyi Liu

Thank you.

谢谢

It's a real pleasure to be here.

来到这里演讲是我的荣幸

I last did a TED Talk

上一次我在TED的演讲

I think about seven years ago or so.

大概是七年前

I talked about spaghetti sauce.

讲的是意大利面调料

And so many people, I guess, watch those videos.

很多人看了那个视频

People have been coming up to me ever since

所有从此就有很多人

to ask me questions about spaghetti sauce,

来问我意大利面调料的问题

which is a wonderful thing in the short term --

刚开始的时候这还是件挺美好的事－

(Laughter)

（笑声）

but it's proven to be less than ideal

但是这么持续了七年

over seven years.

就不那么美好了

And so I though I would come

所以我要再來一次

and try and put spaghetti sauce behind me.

然后把意大利面调料这事能放到脑后去

(Laughter)

（笑声）

The theme of this morning's session is Things We Make.

今天早上部分的主题是我们创造的东西

And so I thought I would tell a story

我讲的故事

about someone

是关于一个人

who made one of the most precious objects

他创造了他那个时代

of his era.

最宝贵的东西

And the man's name is Carl Norden.

他的名字叫卡尔･诺顿

Carl Norden was born in 1880.

卡尔･诺顿生于1880年

And he was Swiss.

瑞士人

And of course, the Swiss can be divided

众所周知瑞士人可以

into two general categories:

分为两类：

those who make small, exquisite,

那些制造精细

expensive objects

昂贵物件的人

and those who handle the money

和那些管理着能买得起

of those who buy small, exquisite,

那些精细昂贵物件的人的钱

expensive objects.

的人

And Carl Norden is very firmly in the former camp.

卡尔･诺顿绝对属于第一阵营

He's an engineer.

他是个工程师

He goes to the Federal Polytech in Zurich.

就读于苏黎士联邦理工学院

In fact, one of his classmates is a young man named Lenin

他有个名叫列宁的同学

who would go on

这个同学总是

to break small, expensive, exquisite objects.

把精细昂贵的东西搞坏

And he's a Swiss engineer, Carl.

卡尔作为一个瑞士工程师

And I mean that in its fullest sense of the word.

是绝对配得上这个称号的

He wears three-piece suits;

他穿三件套的西装

and he has a very, very small, important mustache;

留着很小但是很重要的胡子

and he is domineering

盛气凌人

and narcissistic

又自恋

and driven

有抱负

and has an extraordinary ego;

又极度自负

and he works 16-hour days;

而且他每天工作16个小时

and he has very strong feelings about alternating current;

精通交流电路

and he feels like a suntan is a sign of moral weakness;

不过他也觉得晒黑是种道德软弱的表现

and he drinks lots of coffee;

他喝大量咖啡

and he does his best work

他最好的作品都是在

sitting in his mother's kitchen in Zurich for hours

苏黎世他母亲的厨房里做出来了

in complete silence

他手拿一把滑尺

with nothing but a slide rule.

可以安静地工作好几个小时♪

In any case,

不过

Carl Norden emigrates to the United States

卡尔･诺顿在一战期间

just before the First World War

移民美国

and sets up shop on Lafayette Street

在曼哈顿市中心

in downtown Manhattan.

老佛爷大街上开了家店

And he becomes obsessed with the question

后来他迷上了怎么

of how to drop bombs from an airplane.

从飞机上往下扔炸弹这个问题

Now if you think about it,

试想一下

in the age before GPS and radar,

在有GPS和雷达之前

that was obviously a really difficult problem.

这是个相当难的问题

It's a complicated physics problem.

一个复杂的物理问题

You've got a plane that's thousands of feet up in the air,

飞机在几千英尺的高空

going at hundreds of miles an hour,

以每小时几百英里的速度飞行

and you're trying to drop an object, a bomb,

然后要投下一个炸弹

towards some stationary target

命中一个静止物体

in the face of all kinds of winds and cloud cover

还得考虑风和云层

and all kinds of other impediments.

及其他各种参数

And all sorts of people,

很多人

moving up to the First World War and between the wars,

在一战以及二战之前

tried to solve this problem,

想解决此问题

and nearly everybody came up short.

但都没能成功

The bombsights that were available

当时使用的投弹瞄准器

were incredibly crude.

十分粗糙

But Carl Norden is really the one who cracks the code.

卡尔･诺顿就是解决这个难题的人

And he comes up with this incredibly complicated device.

他开发出了特别复杂的设备

It weighs about 50 lbs.

大概有50磅重

It's called the Norden Mark 15 bombsight.

叫作诺顿15号投弹瞄准器

And it has all kinds of levers and ball-bearings

上面有各种各样的杠杆轴承

and gadgets and gauges.

小工具还有计量器

And he makes this complicated thing.

他造出了这个复杂的机械

And what he allows people to do

能够实现的就是

is he makes the bombardier take this particular object,

投弹手手持这个瞄准器

visually sight the target,

看准目标

because they're in the Plexiglas cone of the bomber,

置于炸弹的有机玻璃锥范围内

and then they plug in the altitude of the plane,

然后输入飞机飞行高度

the speed of the plane, the speed of the wind

速度以及风速

and the coordinates

还有目标的

of the target.

坐标

And the bombsight will tell him when to drop the bomb.

这样瞄准器就回高速投手何时投放炸弹

And as Norden famously says,

用诺顿的话来说

"Before that bombsight came along,

“在有投弹瞄准器之前

bombs would routinely miss their target

炸弹常常是偏离

by a mile or more."

目标一英里以上。”

But he said, with the Mark 15 Norden bombsight,

他说有了他的15号诺顿瞄准器

he could drop a bomb into a pickle barrel

他能从两万英尺的高空把炸弹扔到

at 20,000 ft.

地上一个咸菜桶里

Now I cannot tell you

美军得知了

how incredibly excited

诺顿投弹瞄准器后

the U.S. military was

他们的兴奋

by the news of the Norden bombsight.

是难以言表的

It was like manna from heaven.

那简直是天降甘霖

Here was an army

这支军队

that had just had experience in the First World War,

刚刚经历的一战

where millions of men

数百万的士兵

fought each other in the trenches,

困在战壕里

getting nowhere, making no progress,

没头绪没进展

and here someone had come up with a device

然后这位弟兄造出了一个设备

that allowed them to fly up in the skies

能让他们从敌人上空

high above enemy territory

飞过的时候

and destroy whatever they wanted

以极高的精确度

with pinpoint accuracy.

摧毁一切目标

And the U.S. military

美军

spends 1.5 billion dollars --

花了十五亿美元

billion dollars in 1940 dollars --

那可是1940年的十五亿美元

developing the Norden bombsight.

来开发诺顿投弹瞄准器项目

And to put that in perspective,

这是个什么样的项目

the total cost of the Manhattan project

曼哈顿计划的总花销

was three billion dollars.

是三十亿美元

Half as much money was spent on this Norden bombsight

曼哈顿计划的一半花费投在了诺顿瞄准器上

as was spent on the most famous military-industrial project

而曼哈顿计划无疑是近代史上

of the modern era.

最著名的军工合作计划

And there were people, strategists, within the U.S. military

军队里的战略家们

who genuinely thought that this single device

真以为找到了致命武器

was going to spell the difference

能在和

between defeat and victory

纳粹以及日本军的

when it came to the battle against the Nazis

战斗中

and against the Japanese.

一显神威

And for Norden as well,

诺顿自己也以为

this device had incredible moral importance,

这个设备有其道德意义

because Norden was a committed Christian.

因为他是虔诚的基督徒

In fact, he would always get upset

当他听到人们把此设备

when people referred to the bombsight as his invention,

归功于他的发明时往往会沮丧

because in his eyes,

因为他觉得

only God could invent things.

只有上帝才能发明食物

He was simply the instrument of God's will.

他只是执行了上帝的意志

And what was God's will?

上帝的意志是什么呢？

Well God's will was that the amount of suffering in any kind of war

上帝的意志就是人们在战争中遭受的痛苦

be reduced to as small an amount as possible.

越小越好

And what did the Norden bombsight do?

诺顿瞄准器的作用是什么？

Well it allowed you to do that.

作用就是

It allowed you to bomb only those things

让炸弹只炸到

that you absolutely needed and wanted to bomb.

想炸的目标上去

So in the years leading up to the Second World War,

所以在二战前几年

the U.S. military buys 90,000

美军购买了九万件

of these Norden bombsights

这样的投弹瞄准器

at a cost of $14,000 each --

每一个都价值一万四千美元－

again, in 1940 dollars, that's a lot of money.

在1940年这可是大钱

And they trained 50,000 bombardiers on how to use them --

他们训练了五万名投手来操作－

long extensive, months-long training sessions --

数月的高强度训练－

because these things are essentially analog computers;

因为这个设备根本上是模拟计算机

they're not easy to use.

操作不易

And they make every one of those bombardiers take an oath,

每一个投手都必须盟誓

to swear that if they're ever captured,

如果被俘

they will not divulge a single detail

不得泄漏关于此设备的

of this particular device to the enemy,

一个字

because it's imperative the enemy not get their hands

因为这么重要的设备的情报

on this absolutely essential piece of technology.

绝对不能落入敌人之手

And whenever the Norden bombsight is taken onto a plane,

每一架诺顿瞄准器被安放到飞机上时

it's escorted there by a series of armed guards.

都有一队军队护送

And it's carried in a box with a canvas shroud over it.

它被装在盒子里，上面盖着帆布

And the box is handcuffed to one of the guards.

一个手铐把一名士兵和盒子铐到一起

It's never allowed to be photographed.

禁止拍照

And there's a little incendiary device inside of it,

设备里还有一个燃烧弹

so that, if the plane ever crashes, it will be destroyed

一旦飞机失事，机器就被毁

and there's no way the enemy can ever get their hands on it.

从而敌军也无法获得情报

The Norden bombsight

诺顿的投弹瞄准器被

is the Holy Grail.

视为圣杯

So what happens during the Second World War?

那么二战的实况如何呢？

Well, it turns out it's not the Holy Grail.

结果，它并没有那个圣杯

In practice, the Norden bombsight

实战中，诺顿投弹瞄准器

can drop a bomb into a pickle barrel at 20,000 ft.,

确实可以从两万英尺高空把炸弹扔到咸菜桶里

but that's under perfect conditions.

但那是在理想条件下

And of course, in wartime,

而战时

conditions aren't perfect.

是没有理想条件的

First of all, it's really hard to use -- really hard to use.

首先，机器十分难操作

And not all of the people

不是五万名投手

who are of those 50,000 men who are bombardiers

都真的能够操作

have the ability to properly program an analog computer.

模拟计算机

Secondly, it breaks down a lot.

其次，它总是出故障

It's full of all kinds of gyroscopes and pulleys

机器里到处是陀螺仪和滑轮

and gadgets and ball-bearings,

小工具以及轴承

and they don't work as well as they ought to

在炽热的战场上这些玩意儿

in the heat of battle.

常不能正常工作

Thirdly, when Norden was making his calculations,

第三，诺顿当初计算的时候

he assumed that a plane would be flying

是在飞机低空低速飞行的

at a relatively slow speed at low altitudes.

假设条件下做的

Well in a real war, you can't do that;

但是战争可不是这样

you'll get shot down.

这么做就中枪了

So they started flying them at high altitudes at incredibly high speeds.

飞机往往是高速高空飞行

And the Norden bombsight doesn't work as well

诺顿的投弹瞄准器在这样的条件下

under those conditions.

表现不佳

But most of all,

最关键的是

the Norden bombsight required the bombardier

使用诺顿瞄准的投手

to make visual contact with the target.

得目视看到目标

But of course, what happens in real life?

但是实际上是怎样的呢？

There are clouds, right.

天上有云

It needs cloudless sky to be really accurate.

机器要求无云的天空来操作

Well how many cloudless skies

你觉得1940年到1945间

do you think there were above Central Europe

中欧到底有多少

between 1940 and 1945?

无云的天气呢？

Not a lot.

很少

And then to give you a sense

这样你大概明白了

of just how inaccurate the Norden bombsight was,

诺顿的瞄准器是有多么不精确

there was a famous case in 1944

1944年有个著名的例子

where the Allies bombed a chemical plant in Leuna, Germany.

盟军对位于德国洛伊纳的一家化工厂进行轰炸

And the chemical plant comprised

这个工厂占地

757 acres.

757公顷

And over the course of 22 bombing missions,

在22轮轰炸任务里

the Allies dropped 85,000 bombs

盟军用诺顿投弹瞄准器

on this 757 acre chemical plant,

在这757公顷的化工厂上

using the Norden bombsight.

扔下去了八万五千枚炸弹

Well what percentage of those bombs

你估计有多少

do you think actually landed

实实在在

inside the 700-acre perimeter of the plant?

掉在了这占地七百多公顷的化工厂上了呢？

10 percent. 10 percent.

只有百分之十

And of those 10 percent that landed,

而这命中的百分之十里

16 percent didn't even go off; they were duds.

有百分之十六都是哑弹，没爆炸

The Leuna chemical plant,

这家化工厂

after one of the most extensive bombings in the history of the war,

在经历了战争史上最猛烈的轰炸后

was up and running within weeks.

几个星期内又重新开工了

And by the way, all those precautions

那些为了不让

to keep the Norden bombsight out of the hands of the Nazis?

纳粹获得诺顿瞄准器的防范措施又如何呢？

Well it turns out

结果

that Carl Norden, as a proper Swiss,

身为瑞士人的诺顿

was very enamored of German engineers.

本人很欣赏德国工程师

So in the 1930s, he hired a whole bunch of them,

在三十年代他的手下就有一帮德国工程师

including a man named Hermann Long

其中有个叫赫尔曼･龙的

who, in 1938,

他于1938年

gave a complete set of the plans for the Norden bombsight to the Nazis.

把整套的诺顿投弹瞄准器计划全都给了纳粹

So they had their own Norden bombsight throughout the entire war --

所以战时纳粹有自己的诺顿投弹瞄准器－

which also, by the way, didn't work very well.

当然他们的也不怎么好使

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So why do we talk about the Norden bombsight?

那么我们为什么要说诺顿投弹瞄准器呢？

Well because we live in an age

因为我们生活的时代

where there are lots and lots

到出是象诺顿投弹瞄准器一样的

of Norden bombsights.

玩意儿

We live in a time where there are all kinds

我们所处的时代到处是

of really, really smart people

聪明人

running around, saying that they've invented gadgets

他们奔走相告

that will forever change our world.

发明了改变世界的东西

They've invented websites that will allow people to be free.

他们发明了解放人们的网站

They've invented some kind of this thing, or this thing, or this thing

发明了各种各样的东西

that will make our world forever better.

能把世界变的更美好

If you go into the military,

军队里

you'll find lots of Carl Nordens as well.

更是有大量卡尔･诺顿

If you go to the Pentagon, they will say,

去五角大楼，他们会说

"You know what, now we really can

“知道吗？我们现在

put a bomb inside a pickle barrel

真的能把炸弹从两万英尺的高空

at 20,000 ft."

扔道一个咸菜桶里。”

And you know what, it's true; they actually can do that now.

而且他们说的的确是实话

But we need to be very clear

但我们很清初

about how little that means.

这话的份量到底有几何

In the Iraq War, at the beginning of the first Iraq War,

伊拉克战争的开始阶段

the U.S. military, the air force,

美军空军

sent two squadrons of F-15E Fighter Eagles

派出两支F-5E鹰式战斗机部队

to the Iraqi desert

飞到伊拉克沙漠里

equipped with these five million dollar cameras

飞机装备着价值五百万美元的相机

that allowed them to see the entire desert floor.

来察勘整个沙漠地面

And their mission was to find and to destroy --

他们的任务就是找到并摧毁

remember the Scud missile launchers,

飞毛腿导弹发射器

those surface-to-air missiles

伊拉克人用来打击以色列人的

that the Iraqis were launching at the Israelis?

地对空导弹

The mission of the two squadrons

这两支分队的任务

was to get rid of all the Scud missile launchers.

就是去摧毁这些飞毛腿导弹发射器

And so they flew missions day and night,

他们部分昼夜地巡飞

and they dropped thousands of bombs,

扔下了上千枚炸弹

and they fired thousands of missiles

发射了上千枚导弹

in an attempt to get rid of this particular scourge.

来拔掉这些发射器

And after the war was over, there was an audit done --

战后曾有一个听证会

as the army always does, the air force always does --

这是军队惯例

and they asked the question:

他们问：

how many Scuds did we actually destroy?

我们到底成功毁掉了多少发射器？

You know what the answer was?

猜猜结果如何？

Zero, not a single one.

零，一个都没有

Now why is that?

为什么呢？

Is it because their weapons weren't accurate?

是他们的设备不够准确？

Oh no, they were brilliantly accurate.

不是，那些设备非常精确

They could have destroyed this little thing right here

他们能从两万五千英尺高空

from 25,000 ft.

摧毁那些小玩意儿

The issue was they didn't know where the Scud launchers were.

问题是他们不知道这些小玩意儿到底在哪儿

The problem with bombs and pickle barrels

炸弹和咸菜桶的问题

is not getting the bomb inside the pickle barrel,

不在于如何把炸弹扔进去

it's knowing how to find the pickle barrel.

而是怎么才能找到咸菜桶

That's always been the harder problem

这总是战争中

when it comes to fighting wars.

最大的难题

Or take the battle in Afghanistan.

再看看阿富汗战争

What is the signature weapon

中情局在巴勒斯坦西北部

of the CIA's war in Northwest Pakistan?

的标志性武器是什么？

It's the drone. What is the drone?

无人飞机。什么是无人飞机？

Well it is the grandson of the Norden Mark 15 bombsight.

它其实就是诺顿15号投弹瞄准器的次生产物

It is this weapon of devastating accuracy and precision.

它的准确性和精度都非常高

And over the course of the last six years

过去六年中

in Northwest Pakistan,

在巴基斯坦的西北地区

the CIA has flown hundreds of drone missiles,

中情局用几百枚无人机导弹

and it's used those drones

杀掉了

to kill 2,000 suspected

两千名疑似

Pakistani and Taliban militants.

巴基斯坦和塔利班激进分子

Now what is the accuracy of those drones?

这些无人机的精确度是多少呢？

Well it's extraordinary.

十分惊人

We think we're now at 95 percent accuracy

无人机的打击力度

when it comes to drone strikes.

可以达到大概百分之九十五的精确度

95 percent of the people we kill need to be killed, right?

也就是百分之九十五的目标命中，对吧？

That is one of the most extraordinary records

这是战争史上

in the history of modern warfare.

最好的纪录了

But do you know what the crucial thing is?

但关键是什么呢？

In that exact same period

在使用无人机

that we've been using these drones

进行精确打击的

with devastating accuracy,

同时

the number of attacks, of suicide attacks and terrorist attacks,

阿富汗针对美军的袭击

against American forces in Afghanistan

包括自杀式袭击和恐怖袭击

has increased tenfold.

增加了十倍

As we have gotten more and more efficient

在我们越来越高效地

in killing them,

杀掉敌军时

they have become angrier and angrier

他们也越来越愤怒

and more and more motivated to kill us.

越来越激动地要杀掉我们

I have not described to you a success story.

我说地不是一个成功案例

I've described to you

而是一个

the opposite of a success story.

反面教材

And this is the problem

这就是我们有了

with our infatuation with the things we make.

新发明后地心理膨胀

We think the things we make can solve our problems,

我们认为新发明能解决问题

but our problems are much more complex than that.

但是问题本身要复杂很多

The issue isn't the accuracy of the bombs you have,

问题不是在于炸弹地精确队如何

it's how you use the bombs you have,

而是你怎么用它

and more importantly,

更重要的是

whether you ought to use bombs at all.

你是不是该用它

There's a postscript

诺顿还有他的

to the Norden story

投弹瞄准器的故事

of Carl Norden and his fabulous bombsight.

还有个后记

And that is, on August 6, 1945,

在1945年8月6日

a B-29 bomber called the Enola Gay

一名叫伊诺拉･盖的投弹手

flew over Japan

从日本上空飞过

and, using a Norden bombsight,

用诺顿投弹瞄准器

dropped a very large thermonuclear device

在广岛上空

on the city of Hiroshima.

投下了一枚原子弹

And as was typical with the Norden bombsight,

如同其他的诺顿瞄准器一样

the bomb actually missed its target by 800 ft.

炸弹偏离的目标八百英尺

But of course, it didn't matter.

当然这已经不重要了

And that's the greatest irony of all

诺顿投弹瞄准器的

when it comes to the Norden bombsight.

最大讽刺也就在此

the air force's 1.5 billion dollar bombsight

美军空军用15亿的投弹瞄准器

was used to drop its three billion dollar bomb,

扔下来三十亿的炸弹

which didn't need a bombsight at all.

结果根本就不需要瞄准器

Meanwhile, back in New York,

同时在纽约

no one told Carl Norden

没人告诉卡尔･诺顿

that his bombsight was used over Hiroshima.

他的瞄准器用在了广岛轰炸上

He was a committed Christian.

他是个虔诚的基督徒

He thought he had designed something

他以为他的发明

that would reduce the toll of suffering in war.

能减少在战争中受苦的人们

It would have broken his heart.

他要知道了一定伤心至极

(Applause)

（掌声）