Malcolm Gladwell: The strange tale of the Norden bombsight

1,680,745 views ・ 2011-10-26

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Prevoditelj: Nouras Haddad Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG
00:15
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
00:17
It's a real pleasure to be here.
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Pravo je zadovoljstvo biti ovdje.
00:19
I last did a TED Talk
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Posljednji put sam držao TED govor
00:21
I think about seven years ago or so.
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mislim prije nekih sedam godina.
00:25
I talked about spaghetti sauce.
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Pričao sam o umaku za špagete.
00:28
And so many people, I guess, watch those videos.
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I toliko mnogo ljudi, pretpostavljam, gleda te videe.
00:31
People have been coming up to me ever since
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Ljudi su mi prilazili od tada
00:33
to ask me questions about spaghetti sauce,
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da bi me pitali pitanja o umaku za špagete,
00:35
which is a wonderful thing in the short term --
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što je predivna stvar u kratkom roku --
00:38
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:40
but it's proven to be less than ideal
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ali ispalo je ustvari manje idealno
00:42
over seven years.
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kroz sedam godina.
00:44
And so I though I would come
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I tako sam pomislio da dođem
00:46
and try and put spaghetti sauce behind me.
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i probam se riješiti umaka za špagete.
00:49
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:51
The theme of this morning's session is Things We Make.
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Tema ove jutarnje sesije je Things We Make (Stvari Koje Pravimo).
00:54
And so I thought I would tell a story
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I tako pomislih da ispričam priču
00:56
about someone
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o nekome
00:58
who made one of the most precious objects
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tko je napravio jedan od najvrjednijih predmeta
01:00
of his era.
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svojega doba.
01:02
And the man's name is Carl Norden.
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I njegovo ime je Carl Norden.
01:05
Carl Norden was born in 1880.
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Carl Norden je rođen 1880.godine
01:07
And he was Swiss.
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I bio je Švicarac.
01:09
And of course, the Swiss can be divided
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I naravno, Švicarci se mogu podijeliti
01:11
into two general categories:
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u dvije glavne kategorije:
01:13
those who make small, exquisite,
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oni koji prave sitne, sjajne,
01:15
expensive objects
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skupe predmete
01:17
and those who handle the money
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i one koji se bave novcem
01:19
of those who buy small, exquisite,
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onih koji kupuju sitne, sjajne,
01:22
expensive objects.
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skupe predmete.
01:24
And Carl Norden is very firmly in the former camp.
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I Carl Norden stoji vrlo čvrsto u prvoj ekipi.
01:27
He's an engineer.
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On je inženjer.
01:29
He goes to the Federal Polytech in Zurich.
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Studira na Federal Polytech u Zurichu.
01:32
In fact, one of his classmates is a young man named Lenin
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Dapače, jedan od njegovih kolega je mladi momak zvan Lenin
01:35
who would go on
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koji će kasnije
01:37
to break small, expensive, exquisite objects.
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razbijati sitne, skupe, sjajne predmete.
01:41
And he's a Swiss engineer, Carl.
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I on je švicarski inženjer, Carl.
01:44
And I mean that in its fullest sense of the word.
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I mislim to u najširem smislu riječi.
01:47
He wears three-piece suits;
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On nosi trodjelna odijela;
01:49
and he has a very, very small, important mustache;
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i ima vrlo, vrlo mali, važni brk;
01:54
and he is domineering
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i dominantan je
01:56
and narcissistic
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i narcisoidan
01:58
and driven
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i gonjen
02:00
and has an extraordinary ego;
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i ima ogroman ego;
02:02
and he works 16-hour days;
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i radi 16 sati dnevno;
02:05
and he has very strong feelings about alternating current;
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i ima vrlo snažne osjećaje o promjenjivoj struji;
02:08
and he feels like a suntan is a sign of moral weakness;
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i misli da je sunčana preplanulost znak slabog morala;
02:12
and he drinks lots of coffee;
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i pije mnogo kave;
02:14
and he does his best work
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i najbolje radi
02:16
sitting in his mother's kitchen in Zurich for hours
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sjedeći satima u majčinoj kuhinji u Zurichu
02:18
in complete silence
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u potpunoj tišini
02:20
with nothing but a slide rule.
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s ničim osim šiberom (logaritmarom).
02:22
In any case,
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Uglavnom,
02:24
Carl Norden emigrates to the United States
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Carl Norden emigrira u SAD
02:27
just before the First World War
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taman pred Prvi svjetski rat
02:29
and sets up shop on Lafayette Street
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i otvara dućan u ulici Lafayette
02:31
in downtown Manhattan.
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u centru Manhattana.
02:33
And he becomes obsessed with the question
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I postaje opsjednut pitanjem
02:35
of how to drop bombs from an airplane.
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kako baciti bombu iz aviona.
02:38
Now if you think about it,
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Ako malo promislite,
02:40
in the age before GPS and radar,
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u doba prije GPS-a i radara,
02:43
that was obviously a really difficult problem.
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to je očito bio doista težak problem.
02:45
It's a complicated physics problem.
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To je kompliciran problem iz fizike.
02:47
You've got a plane that's thousands of feet up in the air,
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Imate avion koji je tisućama stopa visoko u zraku,
02:50
going at hundreds of miles an hour,
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koji ide stotinama milja na sat,
02:52
and you're trying to drop an object, a bomb,
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i pokušavate baciti predmet, bombu,
02:55
towards some stationary target
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prema nekoj nepokretnoj meti
02:57
in the face of all kinds of winds and cloud cover
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dok vas sputavaju svakojaki vjetrovi i oblaci
03:00
and all kinds of other impediments.
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te svakakve druge vrste smetnji.
03:02
And all sorts of people,
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I razni ljudi,
03:04
moving up to the First World War and between the wars,
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do Prvog svjetskog rata i između ratova,
03:06
tried to solve this problem,
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su pokušavali riješiti ovaj problem,
03:08
and nearly everybody came up short.
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i skoro svi su bili neuspješni.
03:10
The bombsights that were available
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Nišani za bombardiranje koji su bili dostupni
03:12
were incredibly crude.
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su bili strašno nerazvijeni.
03:14
But Carl Norden is really the one who cracks the code.
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Ali Carl Norden je bio taj koji je doista uspio probiti led.
03:17
And he comes up with this incredibly complicated device.
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I osmisli on taj nevjerojatno kompliciran uređaj
03:20
It weighs about 50 lbs.
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koji teži otprilike 23 kg,
03:22
It's called the Norden Mark 15 bombsight.
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zvan Norden Mark 15 nišan za bombe.
03:26
And it has all kinds of levers and ball-bearings
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I ima svakakve vrste poluga i kugličnih ležajeva
03:28
and gadgets and gauges.
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i sprava i mjerila.
03:31
And he makes this complicated thing.
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I on napravi ovu kompliciranu stvar,
03:34
And what he allows people to do
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i on pomogne bombarderima
03:36
is he makes the bombardier take this particular object,
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da uzmu ovaj konkretan predmet,
03:40
visually sight the target,
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ugledaju metu,
03:42
because they're in the Plexiglas cone of the bomber,
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pošto su u bombarderovom kokpitu od Plexiglasa,
03:46
and then they plug in the altitude of the plane,
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i unesu visinu aviona,
03:49
the speed of the plane, the speed of the wind
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brzinu aviona, brzinu vjetra
03:52
and the coordinates
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i koordinate
03:54
of the target.
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zadane mete.
03:56
And the bombsight will tell him when to drop the bomb.
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I nišan će mu reći kad da ispusti bombu.
04:00
And as Norden famously says,
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I kao što je Norden slavno rekao,
04:03
"Before that bombsight came along,
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"Prije nego je postojao taj nišan,
04:05
bombs would routinely miss their target
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bombe su rutinski promašivale svoje ciljeve
04:07
by a mile or more."
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za milju ili više."
04:09
But he said, with the Mark 15 Norden bombsight,
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"Ali", rekao je, "sa Mark 15 Norden nišanom za bombardiranje,
04:12
he could drop a bomb into a pickle barrel
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mogao je pogoditi bombom u bačvu kiselih krastavaca
04:14
at 20,000 ft.
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sa 20,000 stopa". (~6000 metara)
04:16
Now I cannot tell you
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I ne mogu vam reći
04:18
how incredibly excited
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koliko je bila uzbuđena
04:20
the U.S. military was
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američka vojska
04:22
by the news of the Norden bombsight.
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otkrićem Nordenovog nišana.
04:25
It was like manna from heaven.
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To je bilo kao manna s nebesa.
04:27
Here was an army
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Uzmite vojsku
04:29
that had just had experience in the First World War,
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koja je upravo iskusila Prvi svjetski rat,
04:31
where millions of men
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gdje su se milijuni ljudi
04:33
fought each other in the trenches,
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borili u rovovima,
04:35
getting nowhere, making no progress,
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ne mičući se, bez ikakvog napretka,
04:37
and here someone had come up with a device
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i sad naiđe netko tko je osmislio uređaj
04:41
that allowed them to fly up in the skies
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koji im daje da lete s visoka,
04:43
high above enemy territory
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visoko iznad neprijateljskog teritorija
04:45
and destroy whatever they wanted
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i razore što god požele
04:47
with pinpoint accuracy.
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s kirurškom preciznošću.
04:49
And the U.S. military
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I tako je američka vojska
04:51
spends 1.5 billion dollars --
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potrošila 1,5 milijardi dolara --
04:53
billion dollars in 1940 dollars --
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milijarde dolara po tečaju iz 1940-ih --
04:56
developing the Norden bombsight.
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razvijajući Nordenov nišan.
04:58
And to put that in perspective,
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I da to stavimo u perspektivu,
05:01
the total cost of the Manhattan project
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ukupna cijena Manhattan projekta
05:03
was three billion dollars.
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je bila tri milijarde dolara.
05:05
Half as much money was spent on this Norden bombsight
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Pola tolike svote je uloženo na ovaj Nordenov ciljnik
05:08
as was spent on the most famous military-industrial project
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kao što je potrošeno u najpoznatiji vojno-industrijski projekt
05:12
of the modern era.
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modernog doba.
05:14
And there were people, strategists, within the U.S. military
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I bili su ljudi, stratezi, unutar američke vojske
05:17
who genuinely thought that this single device
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koji su doista mislili da će ovaj jedan uređaj
05:19
was going to spell the difference
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prevagnuti
05:21
between defeat and victory
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između gubitka i pobjede
05:23
when it came to the battle against the Nazis
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kad dođe vrijeme za borbu protiv Nacista
05:25
and against the Japanese.
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i protiv Japanaca.
05:27
And for Norden as well,
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I za Nordena također,
05:29
this device had incredible moral importance,
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ovaj uređaj je imao nevjerojatnu moralnu važnost,
05:32
because Norden was a committed Christian.
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jer Norden je bio predani kršćanin.
05:34
In fact, he would always get upset
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Dapače, uvijek bi se ljutio
05:36
when people referred to the bombsight as his invention,
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kad bi ljudi spominjali ciljnik kao njegov izum,
05:39
because in his eyes,
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jer u njegovim očima,
05:41
only God could invent things.
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samo Bog je izumitelj stvari.
05:43
He was simply the instrument of God's will.
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On je jednostavno bio instrument Božje volje.
05:45
And what was God's will?
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A što je bila Božja volja?
05:47
Well God's will was that the amount of suffering in any kind of war
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Pa Božja volja je bila da se količina patnje u svakom ratu
05:50
be reduced to as small an amount as possible.
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svede na minimalnu moguću.
05:53
And what did the Norden bombsight do?
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A što je Nordenov ciljnik radio?
05:55
Well it allowed you to do that.
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Pa omogućio je upravo to.
05:57
It allowed you to bomb only those things
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Dozvoljava da bombardirate samo one stvari
05:59
that you absolutely needed and wanted to bomb.
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koje apsolutno trebate i želite bombardirati.
06:03
So in the years leading up to the Second World War,
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I tako u nadolazećim godinama prema Drugom svjetskom ratu,
06:06
the U.S. military buys 90,000
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američka vojska kupi 90.000
06:09
of these Norden bombsights
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tih Nordenovih nišana
06:11
at a cost of $14,000 each --
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po cijeni of 14.000 dolara po komadu --
06:13
again, in 1940 dollars, that's a lot of money.
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ponavljam, u 1940-im dolarima, to je bilo mnogo novca.
06:16
And they trained 50,000 bombardiers on how to use them --
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I trenirali su 50.000 ratnih pilota kako ih koristiti --
06:19
long extensive, months-long training sessions --
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dugi, opsežni, mjesecima dugi treninzi --
06:23
because these things are essentially analog computers;
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jer su te stvari u osnovi analogna računala;
06:25
they're not easy to use.
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nisu laki za korištenje.
06:27
And they make every one of those bombardiers take an oath,
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I svatko od njih mora položiti zakletvu,
06:30
to swear that if they're ever captured,
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da ako ih ikad uhvate,
06:33
they will not divulge a single detail
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da neće odati ni jedan detalj
06:35
of this particular device to the enemy,
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o ovom uređaju neprijatelju,
06:37
because it's imperative the enemy not get their hands
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jer je imperativ da neprijateljima ne padne u ruke
06:40
on this absolutely essential piece of technology.
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ovaj apsolutno ključni komad tehnologije.
06:42
And whenever the Norden bombsight is taken onto a plane,
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I kad god se Nordenov ciljnik unosi u avion,
06:45
it's escorted there by a series of armed guards.
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ide u pratnji naoružanih stražara.
06:48
And it's carried in a box with a canvas shroud over it.
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I nosi se u kutiji prekriven platnenom presvlakom.
06:51
And the box is handcuffed to one of the guards.
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I kutija je lisicama vezana za jednog od stražara.
06:54
It's never allowed to be photographed.
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Apsolutno ju je zabranjeno fotografirati.
06:56
And there's a little incendiary device inside of it,
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I unutar nišana je mala zapaljiva sprava,
06:59
so that, if the plane ever crashes, it will be destroyed
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koja osigurava da će nišan biti uništen ukoliko se avion ikada sruši
07:02
and there's no way the enemy can ever get their hands on it.
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i ne postoji nijedan način da se neprijatelj ikako domogne nišana.
07:05
The Norden bombsight
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Nordenov nišan
07:07
is the Holy Grail.
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je Sveti Gral.
07:10
So what happens during the Second World War?
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I što se dogodi tokom Drugog svjetskog rata?
07:13
Well, it turns out it's not the Holy Grail.
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E, pa ispostavi se da nije Sveti Gral.
07:16
In practice, the Norden bombsight
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U praksi, Nordenov nišan
07:18
can drop a bomb into a pickle barrel at 20,000 ft.,
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može ubaciti bombu u bačvu kiselih krastavaca sa 20.000 stopa,
07:21
but that's under perfect conditions.
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ali pod savršenim uvjetima.
07:23
And of course, in wartime,
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A u ratu,
07:25
conditions aren't perfect.
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uvijeti naravno nisu savršeni.
07:27
First of all, it's really hard to use -- really hard to use.
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Prije svega, vrlo ga je teško koristiti.
07:30
And not all of the people
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A nisu svi
07:32
who are of those 50,000 men who are bombardiers
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među tih 50.000 bombardera
07:34
have the ability to properly program an analog computer.
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znali valjano programirati analogno računalo.
07:38
Secondly, it breaks down a lot.
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Drugo, često se kvario.
07:40
It's full of all kinds of gyroscopes and pulleys
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Nišan je pun svakakvih zupčanika i kolotura
07:42
and gadgets and ball-bearings,
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i sprava i ležajeva,
07:44
and they don't work as well as they ought to
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koji ne funkcioniraju toliko dobro koliko bi trebali
07:46
in the heat of battle.
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u jeku bitke.
07:48
Thirdly, when Norden was making his calculations,
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Treće, kada je Norden vršio svoje računice,
07:51
he assumed that a plane would be flying
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pretpostavio je da će avion letjeti
07:53
at a relatively slow speed at low altitudes.
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na relativno niskoj brzini i visini.
07:56
Well in a real war, you can't do that;
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Ali u pravom ratu se to ne može;
07:58
you'll get shot down.
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neprijatelj će te oboriti.
08:00
So they started flying them at high altitudes at incredibly high speeds.
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Tako da su počeli letjeti na većim visinama i pri daleko višim brzinama.
08:03
And the Norden bombsight doesn't work as well
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A Nordenov nišan ne radi tako dobro
08:05
under those conditions.
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u takvim uvijetima.
08:07
But most of all,
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Ali najbitnije od svega,
08:09
the Norden bombsight required the bombardier
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Nordenov nišan je zahtijevao da bombarder
08:11
to make visual contact with the target.
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vidi direktno svoju metu.
08:14
But of course, what happens in real life?
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Ali naravno, što se dešava u pravom životu?
08:16
There are clouds, right.
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Bude oblačno, jel tako.
08:19
It needs cloudless sky to be really accurate.
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Potrebno je nebo bez oblaka da bi bili precizni.
08:22
Well how many cloudless skies
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E pa koliko dana bez naoblake
08:24
do you think there were above Central Europe
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mislite da je bilo u središnjoj Europi
08:26
between 1940 and 1945?
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između 1940 i 1945?
08:29
Not a lot.
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Ne mnogo.
08:31
And then to give you a sense
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I da vam dočaram
08:33
of just how inaccurate the Norden bombsight was,
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koliko je neprecizan bio Nordenov nišan,
08:35
there was a famous case in 1944
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poznat je slučaj iz 1944.
08:37
where the Allies bombed a chemical plant in Leuna, Germany.
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u kojem su Saveznici bombardirali kemijsku tvornicu u Leuni u Njemačkoj.
08:41
And the chemical plant comprised
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Kemijska tvornica se prostirala
08:43
757 acres.
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na 757 jutara zemlje.
08:45
And over the course of 22 bombing missions,
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I kroz 22 misije bombardiranja,
08:48
the Allies dropped 85,000 bombs
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Saveznici su bacili 85.000 bombi
08:53
on this 757 acre chemical plant,
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na tih 757 jutara kemijske tvornice,
08:57
using the Norden bombsight.
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koristeći Nordenov nišan.
09:00
Well what percentage of those bombs
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E pa koji postotak tih bombi
09:02
do you think actually landed
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mislite da je zapravo sletio
09:04
inside the 700-acre perimeter of the plant?
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unutar tog opsega od 700 jutara od tvornice?
09:07
10 percent. 10 percent.
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10 posto. 10 posto.
09:10
And of those 10 percent that landed,
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A od tih 10 posto bombi koje su sletjele,
09:12
16 percent didn't even go off; they were duds.
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16 posto nije eksplodiralo; bili su ćorci.
09:15
The Leuna chemical plant,
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Kemijska tvornica u Leuni,
09:17
after one of the most extensive bombings in the history of the war,
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nakon jedne od najintenzivnijih bombardiranja u povijesti rata,
09:20
was up and running within weeks.
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je bila opet u funkciji unutar nekoliko tjedana.
09:23
And by the way, all those precautions
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Usput, sve te mjere opreza
09:25
to keep the Norden bombsight out of the hands of the Nazis?
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da se spriječi da Nordenov nišan dospije u ruke Nacista?
09:28
Well it turns out
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E, pa ispalo je
09:30
that Carl Norden, as a proper Swiss,
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da je Carl Norden, kao pravi Švicarac,
09:32
was very enamored of German engineers.
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vrlo cijenio njemačke inženjere.
09:35
So in the 1930s, he hired a whole bunch of them,
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Stoga je u 1930-ima zaposlio hrpu njih,
09:37
including a man named Hermann Long
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među njima i čovjeka po imenu Hermann Long
09:39
who, in 1938,
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koji je 1938.
09:41
gave a complete set of the plans for the Norden bombsight to the Nazis.
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predao potpune nacrte Nordenovog nišana Nacistima.
09:44
So they had their own Norden bombsight throughout the entire war --
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Tako da su oni imali svoj Nordenov nišan kroz tijek cijelog rata --
09:47
which also, by the way, didn't work very well.
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koji, usput, također nije baš dobro funkcionirao.
09:50
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:52
So why do we talk about the Norden bombsight?
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I zašto pričamo o Nordenovom nišanu?
09:55
Well because we live in an age
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Pa zato što živimo u dobu
09:57
where there are lots and lots
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u kojem je mnogo, mnogo
09:59
of Norden bombsights.
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Nordenovih nišana.
10:01
We live in a time where there are all kinds
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Živimo u vremenu u kojem ima svakakvih
10:03
of really, really smart people
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vrlo, vrlo pametnih ljudi
10:05
running around, saying that they've invented gadgets
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koji trče okolo, govoreći kako su izmislili sprave
10:07
that will forever change our world.
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koje će zauvijek promijeniti svijet.
10:09
They've invented websites that will allow people to be free.
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Izmislili su website-ove koji dozvoljavaju ljudima da budu slobodni.
10:12
They've invented some kind of this thing, or this thing, or this thing
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Izmislili su neku vrstu ovoga ili onoga
10:16
that will make our world forever better.
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koje će naš svijet učiniti boljim zauvijek.
10:19
If you go into the military,
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Ako odete u vojsku,
10:21
you'll find lots of Carl Nordens as well.
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tamo ćete također naći mnogo Carl Nordena.
10:23
If you go to the Pentagon, they will say,
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Ako odete u Pentagon, čuti ćete,
10:25
"You know what, now we really can
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"Znate, mi sada stvarno možemo
10:27
put a bomb inside a pickle barrel
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baciti bombu u bačvu kiselih krastavaca
10:29
at 20,000 ft."
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s 20,000 stopa".
10:31
And you know what, it's true; they actually can do that now.
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I znate što, istina je; sada stvarno mogu to učiniti.
10:34
But we need to be very clear
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Ali moramo razjasniti
10:36
about how little that means.
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koliko malo to zapravo znači.
10:39
In the Iraq War, at the beginning of the first Iraq War,
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U iračkom ratu, na početku prvog iračkog rata,
10:42
the U.S. military, the air force,
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američka vojska, ratno zrakoplovstvo
10:44
sent two squadrons of F-15E Fighter Eagles
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je poslalo dvije eskadrile F-15E Fighter Eagle-a
10:47
to the Iraqi desert
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u iračku pustinju
10:49
equipped with these five million dollar cameras
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opremljene s kamerama vrijednim 5 milijuna dolara
10:51
that allowed them to see the entire desert floor.
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koje su im dozvoljavale da vide cijelo pustinjsko dno.
10:54
And their mission was to find and to destroy --
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I njihova misija je bila da nađu i unište --
10:57
remember the Scud missile launchers,
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sjećate se Scud bacaća raketa,
10:59
those surface-to-air missiles
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onih zemlja-zrak raketa
11:01
that the Iraqis were launching at the Israelis?
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koje su Iračani lansirali na Izraelce?
11:03
The mission of the two squadrons
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Misija te dvije eskadrile
11:05
was to get rid of all the Scud missile launchers.
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je bila da se riješe svih Scud bacača raketa.
11:08
And so they flew missions day and night,
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I tako su letjeli po pustinji danonoćno,
11:10
and they dropped thousands of bombs,
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bacajući tisuće bombi,
11:12
and they fired thousands of missiles
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i ispaljujući tisuće raketa
11:15
in an attempt to get rid of this particular scourge.
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u pokušaju da se riješe te pošasti.
11:18
And after the war was over, there was an audit done --
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I nakon što je rat završen, napravljena je revizija --
11:20
as the army always does, the air force always does --
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kako to vojska uvijek radi, zrakoplovstvo uvijek radi --
11:22
and they asked the question:
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i pitali su se slijedeće:
11:24
how many Scuds did we actually destroy?
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koliko Scud bacača smo zapravo uništili?
11:26
You know what the answer was?
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Znate koji je bio odgovor?
11:28
Zero, not a single one.
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Nula, niti jedan.
11:30
Now why is that?
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Zašto se to desilo?
11:32
Is it because their weapons weren't accurate?
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Je li zato što im oružje nije dovoljno precizno?
11:34
Oh no, they were brilliantly accurate.
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Ne, oružje je bilo briljantno.
11:37
They could have destroyed this little thing right here
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Mogli su naciljati ovu ovdje stvarčicu
11:39
from 25,000 ft.
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s 25.000 stopa.
11:41
The issue was they didn't know where the Scud launchers were.
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Problem je bio da nisu znali gdje se Scud bacači nalaze.
11:45
The problem with bombs and pickle barrels
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Problem s bombama i bačvama krastavaca
11:48
is not getting the bomb inside the pickle barrel,
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nije u tome da ubacite bombu u bačvu krastavaca,
11:50
it's knowing how to find the pickle barrel.
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nego da znate naći tu bačvu krastavaca.
11:53
That's always been the harder problem
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To je uvijek bio veći problem
11:55
when it comes to fighting wars.
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kod ratovanja.
11:57
Or take the battle in Afghanistan.
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Ili uzmite rat u Afganistanu.
12:00
What is the signature weapon
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Koje je glavno oružje
12:02
of the CIA's war in Northwest Pakistan?
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CIA-e u ratu u sjeverozapadnom Pakistanu?
12:04
It's the drone. What is the drone?
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Dron. Što je dron?
12:07
Well it is the grandson of the Norden Mark 15 bombsight.
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E pa to je unuk Nordenovog Mark 15 nišana.
12:11
It is this weapon of devastating accuracy and precision.
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To je oružje uništavajuće preciznosti i točnosti.
12:15
And over the course of the last six years
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I kroz zadnjih šest godina
12:17
in Northwest Pakistan,
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u sjeverozapadnom Pakistanu,
12:20
the CIA has flown hundreds of drone missiles,
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CIA je poslala stotine dron raketa,
12:23
and it's used those drones
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i koristila je te dronove
12:25
to kill 2,000 suspected
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kako bi ubila 2.000 osumnjičenih
12:27
Pakistani and Taliban militants.
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pakistanskih i talibanskih militanata.
12:31
Now what is the accuracy of those drones?
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I kakva je preciznost tih dronova?
12:34
Well it's extraordinary.
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O, pa nevjerojatna je.
12:36
We think we're now at 95 percent accuracy
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Mislimo kako smo sada na 95-postotnoj preciznosti
12:39
when it comes to drone strikes.
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kod dronovskih napada.
12:41
95 percent of the people we kill need to be killed, right?
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95 posto ljudi koje ubijemo trebaju biti ubijeni, jel tako?
12:44
That is one of the most extraordinary records
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To je jedan od najnevjerojatnijih rekorda
12:46
in the history of modern warfare.
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modernog ratovanja.
12:48
But do you know what the crucial thing is?
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Ali znate što je ključna stvar ovdje?
12:50
In that exact same period
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U tom istom periodu
12:52
that we've been using these drones
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u kojem koristimo te dronove
12:54
with devastating accuracy,
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s uništavajućom preciznošću,
12:56
the number of attacks, of suicide attacks and terrorist attacks,
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broj napada, samoubilačkih napada i terorističkih napada,
12:59
against American forces in Afghanistan
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protiv američkih snaga u Afganistanu
13:01
has increased tenfold.
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se udeseterostručio.
13:04
As we have gotten more and more efficient
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Kako smo mi postajali sve precizniji
13:06
in killing them,
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u ubijanju njih,
13:08
they have become angrier and angrier
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oni su postali sve bijesniji i bijesniji
13:11
and more and more motivated to kill us.
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i sve motiviraniji da ubiju nas.
13:14
I have not described to you a success story.
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Ja vam nisam opisao uspješnu priču.
13:17
I've described to you
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Ja sam vam opisao
13:19
the opposite of a success story.
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suprotnost uspješne priče.
13:21
And this is the problem
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I u tome leži problem
13:23
with our infatuation with the things we make.
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s našom zaluđenošću stvarima koje proizvodimo.
13:25
We think the things we make can solve our problems,
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Mi mislimo da nam ti proizvodi mogu riješiti probleme,
13:28
but our problems are much more complex than that.
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međutim naši problemi su kompliciraniji od toga.
13:31
The issue isn't the accuracy of the bombs you have,
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Problem nije u preciznosti bombi koje imamo,
13:34
it's how you use the bombs you have,
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nego u načinu na koji koristimo bombe koje imamo,
13:36
and more importantly,
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i još važnije,
13:38
whether you ought to use bombs at all.
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trebamo li uopće koristiti bombe.
13:42
There's a postscript
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Nordenova priča
13:44
to the Norden story
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ima postskriptum
13:46
of Carl Norden and his fabulous bombsight.
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o Carlu Nordenu i njegovom poznatom nišanu.
13:49
And that is, on August 6, 1945,
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A to je da je 6. kolovoza 1945. godine,
13:52
a B-29 bomber called the Enola Gay
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B-29 bombarder avion zvan Enola Gay
13:55
flew over Japan
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preletio preko Japana
13:57
and, using a Norden bombsight,
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i, koristeći Nordenov nišan,
13:59
dropped a very large thermonuclear device
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bacio vrlo veliki termonuklearni uređaj
14:02
on the city of Hiroshima.
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na grad Hirošimu.
14:05
And as was typical with the Norden bombsight,
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I kako je bilo već tipično za Nordenov nišan,
14:08
the bomb actually missed its target by 800 ft.
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bomba je zapravo promašila metu za 800 stopa.
14:11
But of course, it didn't matter.
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Ali naravno, to nije bilo bitno.
14:14
And that's the greatest irony of all
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I najveća ironija od svega
14:16
when it comes to the Norden bombsight.
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kada dođe do Nordenovog nišana
14:19
the air force's 1.5 billion dollar bombsight
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je da je taj 1,5 milijardi dolara vrijedan nišan
14:23
was used to drop its three billion dollar bomb,
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korišten da baci tu tri milijarde dolara vrijednu bombu
14:27
which didn't need a bombsight at all.
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koja uopće nije trebala nišan.
14:30
Meanwhile, back in New York,
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U međuvremenu, nazad u New Yorku,
14:32
no one told Carl Norden
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nitko nije obavijestio Carla Nordena
14:34
that his bombsight was used over Hiroshima.
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da je njegov nišan korišten nad Hirošimom.
14:37
He was a committed Christian.
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On je bio predani kršćanin.
14:39
He thought he had designed something
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Mislio je da je osmislio nešto
14:41
that would reduce the toll of suffering in war.
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što će smanjiti količinu stradanja i patnje u ratu.
14:44
It would have broken his heart.
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To bi mu slomilo srce.
14:47
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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