Malcolm Gladwell: The strange tale of the Norden bombsight

譯者: Juyao Dong 審譯者: Chang Xu

Thank you.

謝謝

It's a real pleasure to be here.

能來到這裡真是我的一大榮幸

I last did a TED Talk

上一次我在TED做演講

I think about seven years ago or so.

我想大概是七年前

I talked about spaghetti sauce.

我講了意大利麵條的醬．

And so many people, I guess, watch those videos.

有很多人，看這了個視頻．

People have been coming up to me ever since

從那之後就經常有人來找我

to ask me questions about spaghetti sauce,

問我關於意大利麵條的醬的事

which is a wonderful thing in the short term --

在短期內這是件很高興的事

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

but it's proven to be less than ideal

但持續了七年，

over seven years.

就不是那麼理想了．

And so I though I would come

所以我想我要再來一次

and try and put spaghetti sauce behind me.

試著把麵條這事翻過去．

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

The theme of this morning's session is Things We Make.

今天早上這部分的主題是我們創造的東西．

And so I thought I would tell a story

所以我想我來講個故事

about someone

是關於一個人

who made one of the most precious objects

創造了他那個時代

of his era.

最珍貴的東西．

And the man's name is Carl Norden.

這人的名字叫Carl Norden.

Carl Norden was born in 1880.

Carl Norden出生於1880年

And he was Swiss.

他是瑞士人．

And of course, the Swiss can be divided

當然，瑞士人可以被

into two general categories:

分為兩大類：

those who make small, exquisite,

那些創造細小的，精緻的

expensive objects

昂貴的東西的人

and those who handle the money

和那些管理這些做細小精緻

of those who buy small, exquisite,

昂貴東西的人的

expensive objects.

錢財的人．

And Carl Norden is very firmly in the former camp.

Carl Norden是堅定地屬於第一個陣營．

He's an engineer.

他是個工程師．

He goes to the Federal Polytech in Zurich.

他就讀於苏黎士联邦理工学院．

In fact, one of his classmates is a young man named Lenin

事實上，他有一個同學名字 Lenin

who would go on

這個同學經常把那些

to break small, expensive, exquisite objects.

細小精緻昂貴的東西搞壞．

And he's a Swiss engineer, Carl.

Carl，是一個瑞士的工程師．

And I mean that in its fullest sense of the word.

他是最當得起這稱號的．

He wears three-piece suits;

他穿三件套的西裝；

and he has a very, very small, important mustache;

他有一個特別特別小但很重要的小鬍子；

and he is domineering

他盛氣凌人

and narcissistic

他自戀

and driven

他有動力

and has an extraordinary ego;

還特別自負；

and he works 16-hour days;

而且他每天工作16個小時；

and he has very strong feelings about alternating current;

他對交流電路很在行；

and he feels like a suntan is a sign of moral weakness;

他覺得被太陽晒黑是一種道德上軟弱的表現；

and he drinks lots of coffee;

他喝特別多的咖啡；

and he does his best work

他最好的工作都是在

sitting in his mother's kitchen in Zurich for hours

他母親在蘇黎士的廚房裡完成的，

in complete silence

他能安安靜靜地工作幾個小時

with nothing but a slide rule.

而手頭只有一把滑尺．

In any case,

不管怎樣，

Carl Norden emigrates to the United States

Carl Norden在第一次世界大戰前

just before the First World War

移民到了美國

and sets up shop on Lafayette Street

在曼哈頓市中心的

in downtown Manhattan.

拉法葉街上開了一間作坊．

And he becomes obsessed with the question

然後他迷戀上了如何從

of how to drop bombs from an airplane.

飛機上扔炸彈下來這個問題．

Now if you think about it,

如果你來想這個問題,

in the age before GPS and radar,

在GPS和雷達發明之前,

that was obviously a really difficult problem.

這顯然是一個很困難的問題.

It's a complicated physics problem.

這個一個複雜的物理問題.

You've got a plane that's thousands of feet up in the air,

你有一架飛在幾千英尺高空的飛機,

going at hundreds of miles an hour,

以每小時幾百英里的速度飛行

and you're trying to drop an object, a bomb,

你試圖想扔下一個東西,一個炮彈,

towards some stationary target

想讓它擊中一個靜止不動的物體

in the face of all kinds of winds and cloud cover

在有各種風向和雲朵

and all kinds of other impediments.

以及各種其它障礙存在的時候.

And all sorts of people,

而且有許多各種各樣的人,

moving up to the First World War and between the wars,

在第一次世界大戰以及在兩次戰爭中間,

tried to solve this problem,

想解決這個問題,

and nearly everybody came up short.

但都沒能如愿.

The bombsights that were available

當時可用的投彈瞄準器

were incredibly crude.

是相當的粗略的.

But Carl Norden is really the one who cracks the code.

但Carl Norden幾乎就成了那個攻克難題的人.

And he comes up with this incredibly complicated device.

他創造了這個特別複雜的設備.

It weighs about 50 lbs.

設備大約有50磅重.

It's called the Norden Mark 15 bombsight.

名字叫作Norden 牌15 型投彈瞄準器.

And it has all kinds of levers and ball-bearings

這上面有各種各樣的杠桿,球軸承

and gadgets and gauges.

小工具以及計量器.

And he makes this complicated thing.

他創造了這個複雜的東西.

And what he allows people to do

這工具能實現的就是

is he makes the bombardier take this particular object,

投彈手可以拿著這個工具,

visually sight the target,

看准目標,

because they're in the Plexiglas cone of the bomber,

把它放在炸彈的有機玻璃椎的范圍內,

and then they plug in the altitude of the plane,

然後他們輸入飛機的高度

the speed of the plane, the speed of the wind

速度,以及風速

and the coordinates

和目標物體的

of the target.

坐標.

And the bombsight will tell him when to drop the bomb.

然後投彈瞄準器就會告訴投彈手什麼時候放炸彈.

And as Norden famously says,

Norden的一句名言是這樣說的,

"Before that bombsight came along,

"在這個投彈瞄準儀發明前,

bombs would routinely miss their target

炸彈會常規性地偏離

by a mile or more."

目標一英里或者更多."

But he said, with the Mark 15 Norden bombsight,

他說, 如果用他的這種投彈瞄準儀,

he could drop a bomb into a pickle barrel

他可以把炸彈從兩萬英尺高的高空

at 20,000 ft.

仍到一個咸菜桶裡.

Now I cannot tell you

我無法向你們形容

how incredibly excited

當美國部隊得知

the U.S. military was

Norden的投彈瞄準儀時

by the news of the Norden bombsight.

他們是多麼的激動.

It was like manna from heaven.

感覺像是從天堂來的甘露.

Here was an army

一邊是一支剛剛

that had just had experience in the First World War,

經歷過一戰的部隊,

where millions of men

有幾百萬的士兵

fought each other in the trenches,

在戰壕中打仗,

getting nowhere, making no progress,

沒有出路,沒有進展

and here someone had come up with a device

而另一邊是一個人發明了一個設備,

that allowed them to fly up in the skies

可以讓他們從敵方的領土

high above enemy territory

上空飛過,

and destroy whatever they wanted

以極準確的精確度

with pinpoint accuracy.

摧毀所有他們想摧毀的.

And the U.S. military

美國的軍隊

spends 1.5 billion dollars --

花了十五億美元

billion dollars in 1940 dollars --

十五億1940年的美元

developing the Norden bombsight.

來推廣Norden的投彈瞄準儀.

And to put that in perspective,

這是一個什麼概念呢?

the total cost of the Manhattan project

曼哈頓項目的總體開銷是

was three billion dollars.

三十億美元.

Half as much money was spent on this Norden bombsight

相當於曼哈頓項目一半的錢花在了Norden的儀器上,

as was spent on the most famous military-industrial project

而曼哈頓項目是近代歷史上

of the modern era.

最有名的軍工合作項目.

And there were people, strategists, within the U.S. military

而軍隊裡的策略家們

who genuinely thought that this single device

他們真心認為這樣一個儀器

was going to spell the difference

將會在與納粹

between defeat and victory

和日本人的戰鬥中

when it came to the battle against the Nazis

決定出

and against the Japanese.

勝負.

And for Norden as well,

而Norden也認為

this device had incredible moral importance,

這個設備很有道德意義,

because Norden was a committed Christian.

因為他是個虔誠的基督徒

In fact, he would always get upset

事實上, 當他聽到人們

when people referred to the bombsight as his invention,

稱他為投彈瞄準儀的發明人的時候,

because in his eyes,

他總是很沮喪,

only God could invent things.

因為在他眼裡,只有上帝能發明東西.

He was simply the instrument of God's will.

他只是照著上帝的想法在做事而已.

And what was God's will?

什麼是上帝的意愿呢?

Well God's will was that the amount of suffering in any kind of war

上帝的意愿是,在任何一場戰爭中

be reduced to as small an amount as possible.

人家承受的痛苦應該越小越好.

And what did the Norden bombsight do?

Norden的設備是做什麼的呢?

Well it allowed you to do that.

它的作用就是

It allowed you to bomb only those things

讓你只炸那些你必須要炸

that you absolutely needed and wanted to bomb.

和想炸的東西.

So in the years leading up to the Second World War,

所以在二戰來臨前的那些年,

the U.S. military buys 90,000

美國軍隊買了九萬個

of these Norden bombsights

這樣的投彈瞄準儀

at a cost of $14,000 each --

每一個價值一萬四千美元

again, in 1940 dollars, that's a lot of money.

在1940年,這是很大一筆錢呀.

And they trained 50,000 bombardiers on how to use them --

他們訓練了五萬個投彈手來使用這個儀器

long extensive, months-long training sessions --

幾個月長的高強度的訓練--

because these things are essentially analog computers;

因為這東西實際上類似於計算機;

they're not easy to use.

不很容易用.

And they make every one of those bombardiers take an oath,

而且他們讓每一個使用這儀器的投彈手發誓,

to swear that if they're ever captured,

讓他們發誓如果他們被敵人抓了,

they will not divulge a single detail

他們不能洩露一點關於

of this particular device to the enemy,

這個設備的細節,

because it's imperative the enemy not get their hands

因為不讓敵方知道哪怕一丁點關於這個特別

on this absolutely essential piece of technology.

重要的儀器的信息是相當必要的.

And whenever the Norden bombsight is taken onto a plane,

每次當把Norden的投彈瞄準儀放到一個飛機上去時,

it's escorted there by a series of armed guards.

都有一隊荷槍實彈的保衛護送.

And it's carried in a box with a canvas shroud over it.

它被放在一個盒子裡，盒子上蓋的是帆布的壽衣．

And the box is handcuffed to one of the guards.

而且這個盒子是和一個士兵﨧在一起的．

It's never allowed to be photographed.

從來不允許拍照．

And there's a little incendiary device inside of it,

還有一個燃燒彈的裝置在里面

so that, if the plane ever crashes, it will be destroyed

所以如果飛機被撞了，這設備也會被毀，

and there's no way the enemy can ever get their hands on it.

這樣敵軍就無論如何也無法得到它．

The Norden bombsight

Norden的投彈瞄準儀

is the Holy Grail.

被當作了聖杯

So what happens during the Second World War?

所以二戰時發生了什麼呢？

Well, it turns out it's not the Holy Grail.

事實證明，它並不是聖杯．

In practice, the Norden bombsight

在實戰中，Norden的投彈瞄準儀

can drop a bomb into a pickle barrel at 20,000 ft.,

是可以把炸彈從兩萬英尺高的高空仍到一個咸菜桶裡.

but that's under perfect conditions.

但那是在完美條件下．

And of course, in wartime,

當然，在戰爭中

conditions aren't perfect.

條件總是不完美的．

First of all, it's really hard to use -- really hard to use.

首先，它真的很難操作．

And not all of the people

不是所有那五萬名投彈手

who are of those 50,000 men who are bombardiers

都有能力控制一個

have the ability to properly program an analog computer.

類似於計算機的程序．

Secondly, it breaks down a lot.

其次，它經常會壞．

It's full of all kinds of gyroscopes and pulleys

它裡面裝滿了各種陀螺儀，滑輪，

and gadgets and ball-bearings,

小工具以及球軸承

and they don't work as well as they ought to

在戰場的熱浪中，這些東西不像

in the heat of battle.

它們本來那樣工作．

Thirdly, when Norden was making his calculations,

第三點，當Norden做計算的時候，

he assumed that a plane would be flying

他假設飛機是以較慢的速度

at a relatively slow speed at low altitudes.

在較低的高空飛行．

Well in a real war, you can't do that;

但在實際戰爭中，不是這樣的．

you'll get shot down.

飛機這樣飛行會被擊中的．

So they started flying them at high altitudes at incredibly high speeds.

飛機實際上是以很快的速度在很高的高空飛行．

And the Norden bombsight doesn't work as well

Norden的投彈瞄準儀在這樣的條件下

under those conditions.

表現並不好．

But most of all,

最重要的一點是，

the Norden bombsight required the bombardier

Norden的投彈瞄準儀需要投彈手

to make visual contact with the target.

能用眼睛看到目標物．

But of course, what happens in real life?

但什麼是實際情況呢？

There are clouds, right.

天上會有雲，

It needs cloudless sky to be really accurate.

它需要沒有雲朵的天空來進行準確的瞄準．

Well how many cloudless skies

你猜在1940年到1945年這幾年中

do you think there were above Central Europe

在中歐的天空上，

between 1940 and 1945?

到底有多少天是沒有雲朵的呢？

Not a lot.

並不非常多．

And then to give you a sense

大概給你一個印象，

of just how inaccurate the Norden bombsight was,

知道Norden的投彈瞄準儀到底有多不準確．

there was a famous case in 1944

在1944年有一個有名的例子，

where the Allies bombed a chemical plant in Leuna, Germany.

盟軍在德國洛伊納炸了一個化學工廠

And the chemical plant comprised

這個工廠有757公頃

757 acres.

那麼大．

And over the course of 22 bombing missions,

在22輪轟炸過程中

the Allies dropped 85,000 bombs

盟軍用Norden的投彈瞄準儀

on this 757 acre chemical plant,

在這片757公頃的化學工廠上方

using the Norden bombsight.

投下了八萬五千個炸彈．

Well what percentage of those bombs

你認為大概有多少

do you think actually landed

炸彈實際上落在了

inside the 700-acre perimeter of the plant?

這七百多公頃的工廠上？

10 percent. 10 percent.

只有百分之十．

And of those 10 percent that landed,

而且在這百分之十的炸彈中，

16 percent didn't even go off; they were duds.

有百分之十六的炸彈都沒有炸開,是啞彈．

The Leuna chemical plant,

這家化學工廠

after one of the most extensive bombings in the history of the war,

在經歷了戰爭史上最強勁的轟炸後，

was up and running within weeks.

幾個星期內就又重新開始工作了．

And by the way, all those precautions

另外，所有那些為了不讓納粹

to keep the Norden bombsight out of the hands of the Nazis?

知道有關Norden投彈瞄準儀的措施呢？

Well it turns out

結果是

that Carl Norden, as a proper Swiss,

Carl Norden對德國的工程師們特別偏愛．

was very enamored of German engineers.

就像別的瑞士人一樣．

So in the 1930s, he hired a whole bunch of them,

所以在三十年代，他雇佣了一些德國工程師．

including a man named Hermann Long

其中一個叫Hermann Long.

who, in 1938,

他在1938年把關於Norden投彈瞄準儀計劃的

gave a complete set of the plans for the Norden bombsight to the Nazis.

一整套信息給了納粹．

So they had their own Norden bombsight throughout the entire war --

所以在戰爭期間，納粹有他們自己的Norden投彈瞄準儀，

which also, by the way, didn't work very well.

雖然這些也不怎麼好用．

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

So why do we talk about the Norden bombsight?

如果這樣，那我們為什麼要談Norden投彈瞄準儀呢？

Well because we live in an age

那是因為我們生活在

where there are lots and lots

一個充滿Norden投彈瞄準儀

of Norden bombsights.

的時代．

We live in a time where there are all kinds

我們生活在一個到處都是非常非常聰明

of really, really smart people

的人的時代，

running around, saying that they've invented gadgets

他們到處奔走，說他們發明了

that will forever change our world.

能從此改變世界的新奇東西．

They've invented websites that will allow people to be free.

他們發明了能讓人們自由的網站．

They've invented some kind of this thing, or this thing, or this thing

他們發明了這樣那樣的東西

that will make our world forever better.

能讓我們的世界從此變得更美好．

If you go into the military,

如果你去軍隊中，

you'll find lots of Carl Nordens as well.

你會發現有好多好多Carl Norden.

If you go to the Pentagon, they will say,

如果你去五角大樓，他們會說

"You know what, now we really can

＂你知道嗎？我們現在

put a bomb inside a pickle barrel

真的能把炸彈從兩萬英尺高的高空

at 20,000 ft."

投到一個咸菜桶裡.

And you know what, it's true; they actually can do that now.

而且，他們說的確實是事實．

But we need to be very clear

但我們得非常清楚

about how little that means.

這樣做是多麼的難．

In the Iraq War, at the beginning of the first Iraq War,

在伊拉克戰爭中，在最開始的階段，

the U.S. military, the air force,

美國的軍隊，空軍

sent two squadrons of F-15E Fighter Eagles

派出了兩支F-15E鷹式戰鬥機的部隊

to the Iraqi desert

到伊拉克的沙漠裡

equipped with these five million dollar cameras

帶著這些五百萬美金的照相機

that allowed them to see the entire desert floor.

從而能看到整個沙漠表面．

And their mission was to find and to destroy --

他們的任務是尋找，并且摧毀－－

remember the Scud missile launchers,

還記得飛毛腿導彈發射器嗎？

those surface-to-air missiles

那些伊拉克人用來襲擊以色列人的

that the Iraqis were launching at the Israelis?

地對空導彈．

The mission of the two squadrons

這兩支部隊的任務

was to get rid of all the Scud missile launchers.

就是去摧毀這些飛毛腿導彈發射器．

And so they flew missions day and night,

所以他們白天黑夜地執行任務，

and they dropped thousands of bombs,

投下了幾千枚炸彈，

and they fired thousands of missiles

他們執行了幾千次任務

in an attempt to get rid of this particular scourge.

試圖想除掉這些發射器．

And after the war was over, there was an audit done --

戰爭結束後，曾有過一個審核

as the army always does, the air force always does --

這是軍隊中，空軍中的慣例--

and they asked the question:

他們問

how many Scuds did we actually destroy?

我們到底除掉了多少發射器？

You know what the answer was?

猜猜結果如何？

Zero, not a single one.

零，一個都沒有．

Now why is that?

為什麼呢？

Is it because their weapons weren't accurate?

他們的設備不夠準確嗎？

Oh no, they were brilliantly accurate.

不是，那些設備相當的精確．

They could have destroyed this little thing right here

他們可以從二萬五千英尺的高空

from 25,000 ft.

輕鬆除掉那小東西．

The issue was they didn't know where the Scud launchers were.

問題是他們不知道這些飛毛腿導彈發射器在哪裡．

The problem with bombs and pickle barrels

關於炸彈和咸菜桶，

is not getting the bomb inside the pickle barrel,

問題不在於如何把炸彈投到咸菜桶裡，

it's knowing how to find the pickle barrel.

而是如果找到咸菜桶．

That's always been the harder problem

這總是戰爭中

when it comes to fighting wars.

很難的問題．

Or take the battle in Afghanistan.

再來看看阿富汗戰爭．

What is the signature weapon

中央情報局用在西北巴基斯坦的

of the CIA's war in Northwest Pakistan?

標誌性的武器是什麼？

It's the drone. What is the drone?

無人駕駛飛機．什麼是無人駕駛飛機？

Well it is the grandson of the Norden Mark 15 bombsight.

其實它就是Norden投彈瞄準儀的孫子輩的產物．

It is this weapon of devastating accuracy and precision.

它有極高的精確性和準確度．

And over the course of the last six years

在過去六年裡

in Northwest Pakistan,

在巴基斯坦的西北部，

the CIA has flown hundreds of drone missiles,

中央情報局用了幾百次這個設備，

and it's used those drones

殺掉了二千多名

to kill 2,000 suspected

巴基斯坦和塔利班的

Pakistani and Taliban militants.

武裝人員．

Now what is the accuracy of those drones?

那這些無人駕駛的飛機準確度有多高呢？

Well it's extraordinary.

那是相當驚人的．

We think we're now at 95 percent accuracy

我們現在認為大約有百分之九十五的準確度

when it comes to drone strikes.

當我們用無人駕駛的飛機時

95 percent of the people we kill need to be killed, right?

有百分之九十五的想要擊中的人被擊中了，對吧？

That is one of the most extraordinary records

這是現在戰爭史上

in the history of modern warfare.

最好的記錄了．

But do you know what the crucial thing is?

但你知道最重要的是什麼嗎？

In that exact same period

在這相同的時間裡，

that we've been using these drones

在我們用這種相當準確的

with devastating accuracy,

無人駕駛飛機的同時，

the number of attacks, of suicide attacks and terrorist attacks,

在阿富汗的針對美軍的襲擊事件，

against American forces in Afghanistan

自殺式襲擊和恐怖襲擊的數量

has increased tenfold.

增加了十倍．

As we have gotten more and more efficient

在我們變得越來越效率地殺害

in killing them,

敵軍的同時，

they have become angrier and angrier

他們變得越來越生氣

and more and more motivated to kill us.

也越來越有動力殺我們．

I have not described to you a success story.

我不是在告訴你一個成功的故事．

I've described to you

我說的恰恰是

the opposite of a success story.

一個成功故事的反面．

And this is the problem

這是我們在發明了

with our infatuation with the things we make.

新東西後伴隨的心理膨脹．

We think the things we make can solve our problems,

我們認為我們創造的東西能解決我們的問題，

but our problems are much more complex than that.

但我們的問題要遠比這複雜得多．

The issue isn't the accuracy of the bombs you have,

問題不在於你發明的炸彈能投得多准，

it's how you use the bombs you have,

而是你要如何用它們．

and more importantly,

更重要的是，

whether you ought to use bombs at all.

你是否應該用它們．

There's a postscript

Norden和他著名的

to the Norden story

投彈瞄準儀的故事

of Carl Norden and his fabulous bombsight.

其實還有一段後記．

And that is, on August 6, 1945,

在1945年八月六號，

a B-29 bomber called the Enola Gay

一個叫作恩諾拉蓋伊的B-29轟炸機

flew over Japan

從日本上空飛過

and, using a Norden bombsight,

使用Norden投彈瞄準儀

dropped a very large thermonuclear device

在廣島上空

on the city of Hiroshima.

投下了一個巨大的熱核設備．

And as was typical with the Norden bombsight,

像其它Norden投彈瞄準儀一樣

the bomb actually missed its target by 800 ft.

炸彈偏離了目標800英尺．

But of course, it didn't matter.

當然了，這並不重要．

And that's the greatest irony of all

Norden投彈瞄準儀

when it comes to the Norden bombsight.

最諷刺的也就是在這裡．

the air force's 1.5 billion dollar bombsight

空軍花了十五億美元的投彈瞄準儀

was used to drop its three billion dollar bomb,

用來扔下了價值三十億美元的炸彈

which didn't need a bombsight at all.

而這炸彈其實根本不需要瞄準儀．

Meanwhile, back in New York,

同時，在紐約

no one told Carl Norden

沒有人跟Carl Norden

that his bombsight was used over Hiroshima.

提過他的瞄準儀被用在了廣島上．

He was a committed Christian.

他是個虔誠的基督教徒．

He thought he had designed something

他認為他發明了一樣東西

that would reduce the toll of suffering in war.

能減少在戰爭中受折磨的人數．

It would have broken his heart.

這會讓他傷心至極．

(Applause)

(掌聲)