Eric X. Li: A tale of two political systems

Prevodilac: Ivana Korom Lektor: Mile Živković

Good morning.

Dobro jutro.

My name is Eric Li, and I was born here.

Moje ime je Erik Li i ovde sam se rodio.

But no, I wasn't born there.

Ali ne, ja se nisam tu rodio.

This was where I was born:

Ovde sam rođen:

Shanghai, at the height of the Cultural Revolution.

Šangaj, na vrhuncu Kulturne revolucije.

My grandmother tells me that she heard

Moja baka mi je rekla da je čula

zvuk pucnja zajedno sa mojim plačem.

the sound of gunfire along with my first cries.

When I was growing up, I was told a story

Dok sam odrastao, pričali su mi priču

that explained all I ever needed to know about humanity.

koja je objasnila sve što je trebalo da znam o čovečanstvu.

It went like this.

Ovako je zvučala.

All human societies develop in linear progression,

Sva ljudska društva se razvijaju linearno,

beginning with primitive society, then slave society,

počinjući od primitivnih društava, zatim robovlasničkog društva,

feudalism, capitalism, socialism,

feudalizma, kapitalizma, socijalizma

and finally, guess where we end up?

i na kraju, pogodite gde završavamo?

Communism!

U komunizmu!

Sooner or later, all of humanity,

Pre ili kasnije, sveukupno čovečanstvo,

regardless of culture, language, nationality,

bez obzira na kulturu, jezik, nacionalnost,

will arrive at this final stage

stiže do ovog poslednjeg stupnja

of political and social development.

političkog i društvenog razvoja.

The entire world's peoples will be unified

Ljudi čitave planete će se ujediniti

in this paradise on Earth

u ovom raju na Zemlji

and live happily ever after.

i živeće zauvek srećno.

But before we get there, we're engaged

Ali pre nego što stignemo tamo,

učestvujemo u borbi dobra i zla,

in a struggle between good and evil,

the good of socialism against the evil of capitalism,

dobrote socijalizma i zla kapitalizma

and the good shall triumph.

i dobrota će pobediti.

That, of course, was the meta-narrative

To je, naravno, bila meta-priča

distilled from the theories of Karl Marx.

izdvojena iz teorija Karla Marksa.

And the Chinese bought it.

I Kinezi su joj poverovali.

We were taught that grand story day in and day out.

Pričali su nam tu veliku priču dan za danom.

It became part of us, and we believed in it.

Postala je deo nas i verovali smo u nju.

The story was a bestseller.

Ta priča je bila bestseler.

About one third of the entire world's population

Oko jedne trećine ukupne populacije sveta

lived under that meta-narrative.

je živelo pod uticajem te meta-priče.

Then, the world changed overnight.

Onda se svet preko noći promenio.

As for me, disillusioned by the failed religion of my youth,

Ja, razočaran neuspelom religijom svoje mladosti,

I went to America and became a Berkeley hippie.

otišao sam u Ameriku i postao Berkli hipik.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Now, as I was coming of age, something else happened.

Dok sam rastao, nešto drugo se desilo.

As if one big story wasn't enough,

Kao da jedna velika priča nije bila dovoljna,

I was told another one.

ispričana mi je još jedna.

This one was just as grand.

Ova je bila podjednako velika.

It also claims that all human societies

Ona takođe tvrdi da se sva ljudska društva

develop in a linear progression towards a singular end.

razvijaju linearno ka jedinstvenom kraju.

This one went as follows:

Ovako je zvučala:

All societies, regardless of culture,

sva društva, bez obzira na kulturu,

be it Christian, Muslim, Confucian,

bila to hrišćanska, muslimanska, konfučijanska,

must progress from traditional societies

moraju se razvijati iz tradicionalnih društava,

in which groups are the basic units

u kojima su grupe osnovne jedinice,

to modern societies in which atomized individuals

ka modernim društvima, u kojima su pojedinci

are the sovereign units,

suverene jedinice

and all these individuals are, by definition, rational,

i svi ovi pojedinci su, po definiciji, racionalni

and they all want one thing:

i žele jednu stvar:

the vote.

glas.

Because they are all rational, once given the vote,

Pošto su svi oni racionalni, jednom kada su im dati glasovi,

they produce good government

oni stvaraju dobru vladu

and live happily ever after.

i žive zauvek srećni.

Paradise on Earth, again.

Raj na Zemlji, još jednom.

Sooner or later, electoral democracy will be

Pre ili kasnije, izborna demokratija će biti

the only political system for all countries and all peoples,

jedini politički sistem svih država i svih ljudi,

with a free market to make them all rich.

sa otvorenim tržištem koje će ih sve obogatiti.

But before we get there, we're engaged in a struggle

Ali pre nego što stignemo tamo, učestvujemo u borbi

between good and evil.

između dobra i zla.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

The good belongs to those who are democracies

Dobrota pripada onima koji su demokratije

and are charged with a mission of spreading it

i oni imaju misiju da je šire svetom,

around the globe, sometimes by force,

ponekad silom,

against the evil of those who do not hold elections.

protiv zla, onih koji ne drže izbore.

(Video) George H.W. Bush: A new world order...

(Video) Džordž H.V. Buš: Novi svetski poredak...

(Video) George W. Bush:... ending tyranny in our world...

(Video) Džordž H.V. Buš: ...koji zaustavlja tiraniju u svetu...

(Video) Barack Obama:... a single standard for all

(Video) Barak Obama: ...jedinstveni standard za sve

who would hold power.

koji žele da imaju moć.

Eric X. Li: Now --

Erik K. Li: Sad -

(Laughter) (Applause)

(Smeh) (Aplauz)

This story also became a bestseller.

I ova priča je postala bestseler.

According to Freedom House,

Prema navodima Kuće slobode,

the number of democracies went from 45 in 1970

broj demokratija je porastao sa 45 1970. godine

to 115 in 2010.

na 115 u 2010. godini.

In the last 20 years, Western elites tirelessly

U poslednjih 20 godina, zapadnjačke elite su neumorno

trotted around the globe selling this prospectus:

išle planetom propagirajući ovu viziju:

Multiple parties fight for political power

mnogobrojne partije se bore za političku moć

and everyone voting on them

i glasanje za neku od njih

is the only path to salvation

je jedini put ka spasenju

to the long-suffering developing world.

sveta u razvoju koji večno pati.

Those who buy the prospectus are destined for success.

Oni koji poveruju u ovu viziju su predodređeni da uspeju.

Those who do not are doomed to fail.

Ostali su osuđeni na propast.

But this time, the Chinese didn't buy it.

Ali ovog puta, Kinezi nisu poverovali u nju.

Fool me once...

Prevari me jednom...

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

The rest is history.

Ostatak je istorija.

In just 30 years, China went from

Za samo 30 godina, Kina je napredovala

one of the poorest agricultural countries in the world

od jedne od najsiromašnijih poljoprivrednih zemalja na svetu

to its second-largest economy.

do druge najveće ekonomije sveta.

Six hundred fifty million people

Šestopedeset miliona ljudi

were lifted out of poverty.

je izbavljeno iz siromaštva.

Eighty percent of the entire world's poverty alleviation

80% ukupne svetske populacije koja je izbavljena iz siromaštva

during that period happened in China.

u tom periodu je izbavljeno u Kini.

In other words, all the new and old democracies

Drugim rečima, sve nove i stare demokratije

put together amounted to a mere fraction

zajedno su činile mali deo

of what a single, one-party state did without voting.

onoga što je jedna, jednopartijska država uradila bez glasanja.

See, I grew up on this stuff: food stamps.

Vidite, ja sam odrastao na ovom: kuponima za hranu.

Meat was rationed to a few hundred grams

Meso je deljeno u porcijama, ljudi su u jednom trenutku

per person per month at one point.

dobijali nekoliko stotina grama mesečno.

Needless to say, I ate all my grandmother's portions.

Bespotrebno je reći da sam ja jeo porcije svoje bake.

So I asked myself, what's wrong with this picture?

Zapitao sam se, šta nije u redu sa ovim?

Here I am in my hometown,

Evo me ovde, u svom rodnom gradu,

my business growing leaps and bounds.

moj biznis naveliko raste.

Entrepreneurs are starting companies every day.

Preduzetnici osnivaju kompanije svakog dana.

Middle class is expanding in speed and scale

Srednja klasa se širi brzinom i rasponom

unprecedented in human history.

neviđenim u ljudskoj istoriji.

Yet, according to the grand story,

Ali ipak, prema velikoj priči,

none of this should be happening.

ništa od ovoga ne bi trebalo da se dešava.

So I went and did the only thing I could. I studied it.

Zato sam uradio jedinu stvar koju sam mogao - proučavao sam je.

Yes, China is a one-party state

Da, Kina jeste jednopartijska država

run by the Chinese Communist Party, the Party,

koju vodi Kineska komunistička partija, Partija

and they don't hold elections.

i oni ne raspisuju izbore.

Three assumptions are made

Napravljene su tri pretpostavke

by the dominant political theories of our time.

u dominantnim savremenim političkim teorijama.

Such a system is operationally rigid,

Takav sistem je operativno krut,

politically closed, and morally illegitimate.

politički zatvoren i moralno nezakonit.

Well, the assumptions are wrong.

To su pogrešne pretpostavke.

The opposites are true.

Njihova suprotnost je istinita.

Adaptability, meritocracy, and legitimacy

Prilagodljivost, meritokratija i zakonitost

are the three defining characteristics

su tri određujuće osobine

of China's one-party system.

kineskog jednopartijskog sistema.

Now, most political scientists will tell us

Većina politikologa će nam reći

da jedan jednopartijski sistem nije sam po sebi sposoban

that a one-party system is inherently incapable

of self-correction.

za samoispravljanje.

It won't last long because it cannot adapt.

Neće dugo opstati jer nije prilagodljiv.

Now here are the facts.

Evo sada činjenica.

In 64 years of running the largest country in the world,

Tokom 64 godine vođenja najveće države na svetu,

the range of the Party's policies has been wider

domet politike Partije je širi

than any other country in recent memory,

od bilo koje druge države u skorijoj istoriji,

from radical land collectivization to the Great Leap Forward,

od radikalne kolektivizacije zemljišta do Velikog skoka napred,

then privatization of farmland,

zatim privatizacije poljoprivrednog zemljišta,

then the Cultural Revolution,

Kulturne Revolucije,

then Deng Xiaoping's market reform,

reforme tržišta Donga Šaopinga,

then successor Jiang Zemin took the giant political step

zatim je naslednik Jiang Zemin napravio ogroman politički iskorak

of opening up Party membership to private businesspeople,

otvorivši članstvo Partije privatnim biznismenima,

something unimaginable during Mao's rule.

nešto što je bilo nezamislivo u vreme Maove vladavine.

So the Party self-corrects in rather dramatic fashions.

Dakle, Partija se ispravlja na poprilično dramatične načine.

Institutionally, new rules get enacted

Institucionalno, donose se novi zakoni

to correct previous dysfunctions.

kako bi se ispravile prethodne disfunkcije.

For example, term limits.

Na primer, ograničenje mandata.

Political leaders used to retain their positions for life,

Političke vođe su zadržavale svoje pozicije ceo život

and they used that to accumulate power

i to su često koristili kako bi nagomilavali moć

and perpetuate their rules.

i produžili svoju vladavinu.

Mao was the father of modern China,

Mao je otac savremene Kine,

yet his prolonged rule led to disastrous mistakes.

ali je ipak njegova preduga vladavina dovela do katastrofalnih grešaka.

So the Party instituted term limits

Zato je Partija uvela ograničenje mandata

with mandatory retirement age of 68 to 70.

sa obaveznim odlaskom u penziju između 68. i 70. godine.

One thing we often hear is,

Jedna stvar koju često čujemo je:

"Political reforms have lagged far behind economic reforms,"

"Političke reforme su zaostale za ekonomskim reformama"

and "China is in dire need of political reform."

i "Kini je preko potrebna politička reforma."

But this claim is a rhetorical trap

Ali ova tvrdnja je retorička zamka,

hidden behind a political bias.

skrivena iza političkih predrasuda.

See, some have decided a priori

Vidite, neki su a priori odredili

what kinds of changes they want to see,

kakve promene žele da vide

and only such changes can be called political reform.

i samo takve promene nazivaju političkom reformom.

The truth is, political reforms have never stopped.

Istina je, političke reforme nikada nisu prestajale.

Compared with 30 years ago, 20 years, even 10 years ago,

U poređenju sa pre 30 godina, 20, pa čak i pre 10 godina,

every aspect of Chinese society,

svaki vid kineskog društva,

how the country is governed,

kako se državom vlada,

from the most local level to the highest center,

od najmanjeg lokalnog nivoa do najvišeg centra,

are unrecognizable today.

danas je neprepoznatljiv.

Now such changes are simply not possible

Takve promene jednostavno nisu moguće

without political reforms of the most fundamental kind.

bez osnovnih političkih reformi.

Now I would venture to suggest the Party

Sada bih vam rekao da je Partija

is the world's leading expert in political reform.

vodeći svetski ekspert u političkim reformama.

The second assumption is that in a one-party state,

Druga pretpostavka je da se u jednopartijskoj državi

power gets concentrated in the hands of the few,

moć koncentriše u rukama nekolicine

and bad governance and corruption follow.

i loše upravljanje i korupcija iz toga slede.

Indeed, corruption is a big problem,

Uistinu, korupcija je veliki problem,

but let's first look at the larger context.

ali hajde da prvo pogledamo širi kontekst.

Now, this may be counterintuitive to you.

Ovo će vam možda zvučati kontraintuitivno.

The Party happens to be one of the most meritocratic

Partija je jedna od najvećih meritokratija

political institutions in the world today.

od svih političkih institucija u svetu danas.

China's highest ruling body, the Politburo, has 25 members.

Najviše vladajuće telo Kine, Politbiro, ima 25 članova.

In the most recent one, only five of them

U najskorijem Politbirou, samo pet od njih

came from a background of privilege, so-called princelings.

je poticalo iz privilegovanih položaja takozvani kneščići.

The other 20, including the president and the premier,

Ostalih 20, uključujući i predsednika i premijera,

came from entirely ordinary backgrounds.

poticalo je iz potpuno običnih položaja.

In the larger central committee of 300 or more,

U većem centralnom komitetu koji ima oko 300 članova,

the percentage of those who were born

procenat onih koji su rođeni

into power and wealth was even smaller.

kao bogati i moćni je još manji.

The vast majority of senior Chinese leaders

Velika većina viših kineskih vođa

worked and competed their way to the top.

je radila i takmičila se na svom putu ka vrhu.

Compare that with the ruling elites

Uporedite to sa vladajućom elitom

in both developed and developing countries,

u razvijenim i državama u razvoju.

I think you'll find the Party being near the top

Mislim da ćete shvatiti da je Partija blizu vrha

in upward mobility.

što se tiče vertikalne pokretljivosti.

The question then is, how could that be possible

Onda je pitanje, kako je to moguće

in a system run by one party?

u sistemu koji vodi jedna partija?

Now we come to a powerful political institution,

Sada dolazimo do moćne političke institucije,

little-known to Westerners:

koja je malo poznata zapadnjacima:

the Party's Organization Department.

Organizacioni odsek partije.

The department functions like a giant

Ovaj odsek funkcioniše poput ogromnog

human resource engine that would be the envy

motora ljudskih resursa kojem bi pozavidele

of even some of the most successful corporations.

i neke od najuspešnijih korporacija.

It operates a rotating pyramid

On rukovodi rotirajućom piramidom

made up of three components:

koju čine tri dela:

civil service, state-owned enterprises,

civilna služba, državna preduzeća

and social organizations like a university

i društvene ogranizacije poput univerziteta

or a community program.

ili zajednice.

They form separate yet integrated career paths

Oni čine odvojene, ali integrisane karijere

for Chinese officials.

za kineske službenike.

They recruit college grads into entry-level positions

Oni regrutuju diplomce za nezahtevne pozicije

in all three tracks, and they start from the bottom,

u sva tri dela i oni počinju sa dna,

called "keyuan" [clerk].

koje se zove kejuan [službenik].

Then they could get promoted

Zatim ih unapređuju

through four increasingly elite ranks:

kroz četiri rastuća elitna čina:

fuke [zamenik rukovodioca odeljka], ke [rukovodilac odeljka],

fuke [deputy section manager], ke [section manager], fuchu [deputy division manager], and chu [division manger].

fuku [zamenik rukovodioca odseka] i ku [rukovodilac odseka].

Now these are not moves from "Karate Kid," okay?

Ovo nisu pokreti iz filma "Karate Kid".

Ovo je ozbiljno.

It's serious business.

The range of positions is wide,

Raspon položaja je širok,

from running health care in a village

od rukovođenja bolnicom u selu

to foreign investment in a city district

do stranih investicija u gradskoj oblasti

to manager in a company.

i menadžera u kompaniji.

Once a year, the department reviews their performance.

Jednom godišnje, Odsek ocenjuje njihov učinak.

They interview their superiors, their peers,

Razgovaraju sa njihovim nadređenima, njihovim vršnjacima,

their subordinates. They vet their personal conduct.

njihovim podređenima. Ocenjuju njihovo lično ponašanje.

They conduct public opinion surveys.

Vrše ankete javnog mnjenja.

Then they promote the winners.

I onda unaprede pobednike.

Throughout their careers, these cadres

Tokom njihovih karijera, ovi kadrovi

mogu da se kreću kroz sva tri dela.

can move through and out of all three tracks.

Over time, the good ones move beyond the four base levels

Vremenom, dobri napreduju preko četiri početna nivoa

to the fuju [deputy bureau chief] and ju [bureau chief] levels.

na fuđu [zamenik šefa biroa] i đu [šef biroa] nivoe.

There, they enter high officialdom.

Tada zalaze u visoko činovništvo.

By that point, a typical assignment will be

Do tog trenutka, tipičan zadatak bi bio

to manage a district with a population in the millions

upravljanje oblašću sa populacijom u milionima

or a company with hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.

ili kompanijom sa hiljadama miliona dolara u prihodima.

Just to show you how competitive the system is,

Samo da bih vam pokazao koliko je konkurentan sistem,

in 2012, there were 900,000 fuke and ke levels,

u 2012. godini, bilo je 900 000 fuke i ke nivoa,

600,000 fuchu and chu levels,

600 000 fuku i ku nivoa

and only 40,000 fuju and ju levels.

i samo 40 000 fuđu i đu nivoa.

After the ju levels,

Posle đu nivoa,

the best few move further up several more ranks,

najbolji napreduju još nekoliko činova

and eventually make it to the Central Committee.

i u svoje vreme stignu do Centralnog komiteta.

The process takes two to three decades.

Taj proces traje dve do tri decenije.

Does patronage play a role? Yes, of course.

Da li pokroviteljstvo igra neku ulogu? Da, naravno.

But merit remains the fundamental driver.

Ali zasluge ostaju osnovni pokretač.

In essence, the Organization Department runs

U suštini, Organizacioni odsek vodi

a modernized version of China's centuries-old

modernu verziju kineskog vekovima starog

mentoring system.

sistema podučavanja.

China's new president, Xi Jinping,

Novi predsednik Kine, Ći Jinping,

is the son of a former leader, which is very unusual,

je sin bivšeg vođe, što je veoma neobično,

first of his kind to make the top job.

prvi njegove vrste koji je uspeo da zauzme vrhovni posao.

Even for him, the career took 30 years.

Čak i njegova karijera je trajala 30 godina.

He started as a village manager,

Počeo je kao rukovodilac sela

and by the time he entered the Politburo,

i dok je ušao u Politbiro,

he had managed areas with a total population

rukovodio je oblastima ukupne populacije

of 150 million people

od 150 miliona ljudi

and combined GDPs of 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars.

i ukupnim BDP-om od 1,5 biliona dolara.

Now, please don't get me wrong, okay?

Nemojte sada da me pogrešno razumete, OK?

This is not a put-down of anyone. It's just a statement of fact.

Ovo ne treba nikog da uvredi. To je samo činjenica.

George W. Bush, remember him?

Džordž V. Buš, sećate se njega?

This is not a put-down.

Ovo nije uvreda.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Before becoming governor of Texas,

Pre nego što je postao guverner Teksasa,

or Barack Obama before running for president,

ili Barak Obama, pre nego što je postao predsednik,

could not make even a small county manager

ne bi mogao da postane ni rukovodilac malog okruga

in China's system.

u kineskom sistemu.

Winston Churchill once said that democracy

Vinston Čerčil je jednom rekao da je demokratija

is a terrible system except for all the rest.

užasan sistem osim svih ostalih.

Well, apparently he hadn't heard of the Organization Department.

Očigledno nije čuo za Organizacioni odsek.

Now, Westerners always assume that

Sad, Zapadnjaci uvek pretpostave

multi-party election with universal suffrage

da su višepartijski izbori sa univerzalnim pravom glasa

is the only source of political legitimacy.

jedini izvor političke legitimnosti.

I was asked once, "The Party wasn't voted in by election.

Jednom su me pitali: "Partija nije izglasana na izborima.

Where is the source of legitimacy?"

Gde je izvor njene legitimnosti?"

I said, "How about competency?"

Rekao sam: "Možda njena sposobnost?"

We all know the facts.

Svi znamo činjenice.

In 1949, when the Party took power,

1949. godine, kada je Partija preuzela vlast,

China was mired in civil wars, dismembered by foreign aggression,

Kina je bila ukaljana građanskim ratovima, raskomadana stranim agresijama,

average life expectancy at that time, 41 years old.

prosečni stanovnik je u to vreme živeo 41 godinu.

Today, it's the second largest economy in the world,

Danas, Kina je druga najveća svetska ekonomija,

an industrial powerhouse, and its people live

industrijski pokretač i njeni stanovnici žive

in increasing prosperity.

u sve većem blagostanju.

Pew Research polls Chinese public attitudes,

"Pew Research" ispituje javno mnjenje Kine

and here are the numbers in recent years.

i evo brojki iz poslednjih nekoliko godina.

Satisfaction with the direction of the country: 85 percent.

Zadovoljstvo zbog smera u kom se kreće država: 85 procenata.

Those who think they're better off than five years ago:

Oni koji misle da žive bolje nego pre pet godina:

70 procenata.

70 percent.

Those who expect the future to be better:

Oni koji očekuju da će budućnost biti bolja:

a whopping 82 percent.

ogromnih 82 procenta.

Financial Times polls global youth attitudes,

"Financial Times" ispituje stavove mladih širom sveta

and these numbers, brand new, just came from last week.

i ovo su brojke, potpuno nove, objavljene prošle nedelje.

Ninety-three percent of China's Generation Y

Devedeset tri procenta generacije Y u Kini

are optimistic about their country's future.

je optimistično u pogledu budućnosti svoje države.

Now, if this is not legitimacy, I'm not sure what is.

Ako ovo nije legitimitet, onda ne znam šta je.

In contrast, most electoral democracies around the world

U poređenju, većina izbornih demokratija širom sveta

are suffering from dismal performance.

pati od sumornih učinaka.

I don't need to elaborate for this audience

Ne moram da objašnjavam ovoj publici

how dysfunctional it is, from Washington to European capitals.

koliko je disfunkcionalna, od Vašingtona do glavnih gradova Evrope.

With a few exceptions, the vast number

Uz nekoliko izuzetaka, ogroman broj

of developing countries that have adopted electoral regimes

država u razvoju koje su prihvatile izborne režime

are still suffering from poverty and civil strife.

još uvek muči siromaštvo i demonstracije.

Governments get elected, and then they fall

Vlade se izaberu i onda padnu

below 50 percent approval in a few months

ispod 50 procenata podrške za nekoliko meseci

and stay there and get worse until the next election.

i ostanu tako i pogoršaju se do sledećih izbora.

Democracy is becoming a perpetual cycle

Demokratija postaje trajni ciklus

of elect and regret.

izglasavanja i kajanja.

At this rate, I'm afraid it is democracy,

Ovim tempom, plašim se da je demokratija,

not China's one-party system, that is in danger

ne jednopartijski sistem Kine, ta koja je u opasnosti

of losing legitimacy.

od gubljenja legitimiteta.

Now, I don't want to create the misimpression

Ne želim da stvorim pogrešan utisak

that China's hunky-dory, on the way

kako je u Kini sve sjajno i bajno na putu

to some kind of superpowerdom.

ka nekoj vrsti supermoći.

The country faces enormous challenges.

Država se suočava sa ogromnim izazovima.

The social and economic problems that come

Socijalni i ekonomski problemi koji se javljaju

with wrenching change like this are mind-boggling.

sa bolnim promenama poput ovih su zapanjujući.

Pollution is one. Food safety. Population issues.

Zagađenje je jedan. Bezbednost hrane. Problemi sa brojem populacije.

On the political front, the worst problem is corruption.

Na političkom frontu, najgori problem je korupcija.

Corruption is widespread and undermines the system

Korupcija se proširila i podriva sistem

and its moral legitimacy.

i njegov moralni legitimitet.

But most analysts misdiagnose the disease.

Ali većina analitičara postavlja pogrešnu dijagnozu ovoj bolesti.

They say that corruption is the result of the one-party system,

Oni smatraju da je korupcija rezultat jednopartijskog sistema

and therefore, in order to cure it,

i da, kako bismo je izlečili,

you have to do away with the entire system.

treba da odbacimo ceo sistem.

But a more careful look would tell us otherwise.

Ali pažljiviji pogled bi nam pokazao nešto drugo.

Transparency International ranks China

"Transparency International" rangira Kinu

between 70 and 80 in recent years among 170 countries,

između 70. i 80. mesta u poslednjih nekoliko godina,

and it's been moving up.

od 170 država i napreduje.

India, the largest democracy in the world,

Indija, najveća demokratija na svetu,

94 and dropping.

94. i nazaduje.

For the hundred or so countries that are ranked below China,

Od sto ili više država koje su rangirane ispod Kine,

više od polovine čine izborne demokratije.

more than half of them are electoral democracies.

So if election is the panacea for corruption,

Ako su izbori lek za korupciju,

how come these countries can't fix it?

kako to da ove države ne mogu da je izleče?

Now, I'm a venture capitalist. I make bets.

Ja sam preduzetnik. Ja pravim opklade.

It wouldn't be fair to end this talk without

Ne bi bilo fer da završim ovaj govor,

putting myself on the line and making some predictions.

a da prethodno ne postavim nekoliko prognoza.

So here they are.

Pa, evo ih.

In the next 10 years, China will surpass the U.S.

U sledećih 10 godina, Kina će nadmašiti SAD

and become the largest economy in the world.

i postaće najveća ekonomija sveta.

Income per capita will be near the top

Prihod po glavi stanovnika će biti pri vrhu

of all developing countries.

svih država u razvoju.

Corruption will be curbed, but not eliminated,

Korupcija će biti umanjena, ali ne eliminisana

and China will move up 10 to 20 notches

i Kina će napredovati 10 do 20 mesta,

to above 60 in T.I. ranking.

iznad 60 po T.I. sistemu rangiranja.

Economic reform will accelerate, political reform will continue,

Ekonomske reforme će se ubrzati, političke reforme će se nastaviti

and the one-party system will hold firm.

i jednopartijski sistem će ostati stabilan.

We live in the dusk of an era.

Živimo u sumraku jedne ere.

Meta-narratives that make universal claims

Meta-priče koje prave univerzalne tvrdnje

failed us in the 20th century

podbacile su u 20. veku

and are failing us in the 21st.

i podbacuju u 21. veku.

Meta-narrative is the cancer

Meta-priča je rak

that is killing democracy from the inside.

koji ubija demokratiju iznutra.

Now, I want to clarify something.

Sada želim nešto da razjasnim.

I'm not here to make an indictment of democracy.

Nisam ovde kako bih podigao optužnicu protiv demokratije.

On the contrary, I think democracy contributed

Naprotiv, mislim da je demokratija doprinela

to the rise of the West and the creation of the modern world.

usponu Zapada i stvaranju savremenog sveta.

It is the universal claim that many Western elites

Univerzalne tvrdnje koje mnoge zapadnjačke elite

are making about their political system, the hubris,

postavljaju o svom političkom sistemu, oholost,

that is at the heart of the West's current ills.

to je u samom središtu trenutne bolesti Zapada.

If they would spend just a little less time

Kada bi proveli samo malo manje vremena

on trying to force their way onto others,

pokušavajući da nametnu svoj način drugima

and a little bit more on political reform at home,

i malo više posvetili političkim reformama kod kuće,

they might give their democracy a better chance.

možda bi pružili bolju šansu njihovoj demokratiji.

China's political model will never supplant

Politički model Kine nikada neće potisnuti

electoral democracy, because unlike the latter,

izbornu demokratiju jer, za razliku od nje,

it doesn't pretend to be universal.

ne pretvara se da je univerzalan.

It cannot be exported. But that is the point precisely.

Ne može se izvoziti. Ali to je i poenta.

The significance of China's example

Značaj primera Kine nije to

is not that it provides an alternative,

da on pruža alternativu,

but the demonstration that alternatives exist.

već to što on pokazuje da alternative postoje.

Let us draw to a close this era of meta-narratives.

Hajde da završimo ovu eru meta-priča.

Communism and democracy may both be laudable ideals,

Komunizam i demokratija su možda ideali za pohvalu,

but the era of their dogmatic universalism is over.

ali era njihovog dogmatičnog univerzalizma je završena.

Let us stop telling people and our children

Hajde da prestanemo da govorimo ljudima i našoj deci

there's only one way to govern ourselves

da postoji samo jedan način da rukovodimo sobom

and a singular future towards which

i jedinstvena budućnost ka kojoj

all societies must evolve.

sva društva moraju da evoluiraju.

It is wrong. It is irresponsible.

To je pogrešno. To je neodgovorno.

And worst of all, it is boring.

I najgore od svega, dosadno je.

Let universality make way for plurality.

Neka univerzalnost napravi mesta za pluralitet.

Perhaps a more interesting age is upon us.

Možda nas čeka zanimljivije doba.

Are we brave enough to welcome it?

Jesmo li dovoljno hrabri da ga dočekamo?

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks.

Hvala vam. Hvala vam. Hvala.

Bruno Giussani: Eric, stay with me for a couple of minutes,

Bruno Đuzani: Eriče, ostani sa mnom na par minuta,

because I want to ask you a couple of questions.

želim da ti postavim par pitanja.

I think many here, and in general in Western countries,

Mislim da bi se većina ljudi ovde, a i u zapadnim državama uopšte,

would agree with your statement about analysis

složila sa tvojom izjavom o analizi

of democratic systems becoming dysfunctional,

da demokratski sistemi postaju disfunkcionalni,

but at the same time, many would kind of find

ali istovremeno, dosta ljudi

unsettling the thought that there is an unelected

bi uznemirila pomisao da postoji neizabrani autoritet

authority that, without any form of oversight or consultation,

koji, bez ikakve forme nadzora ili konsultacije,

decides what the national interest is.

odlučuje koji su to nacionalni interesi.

What is the mechanism in the Chinese model

Koji su to mehanizmi u modelu Kine

that allows people to say, actually,

koji dozvoljavaju ljudima da kažu

the national interest as you defined it is wrong?

da je nacionalni interes, kako si ga ti nazvao, pogrešan?

EXL: You know, Frank Fukuyama, the political scientist,

EKL: Znaš, Frenk Fukujama, politikolog,

called the Chinese system "responsive authoritarianism."

kineski sistem je nazvao "odgovorna autoritarnost".

It's not exactly right, but I think it comes close.

To nije potpuno tačno, ali je približno.

So I know the largest public opinion survey company

Ja znam najveću kompaniju za ispitivanje javnog mnjenja

in China, okay?

u Kini, OK?

Do you know who their biggest client is?

Znate ko je njihov najveći klijent?

The Chinese government.

Kineska vlada.

Not just from the central government,

Ne samo centralna vlada,

the city government, the provincial government,

već i gradska vlada, pokrajinska vlada,

to the most local neighborhood districts.

sve do oblasti lokalnih komšiluka.

They conduct surveys all the time.

Oni sprovode ankete sve vreme.

Are you happy with the garbage collection?

Jeste li zadovoljni odnošenjem smeća?

Are you happy with the general direction of the country?

Jeste li zadovoljni opštim smerom kojim se kreće država?

So there is, in China, there is a different kind of mechanism

Dakle, u Kini postoje različite vrste mehanizama

to be responsive to the demands and the thinking of the people.

koji reaguju na zahteve i mišljenje ljudi.

My point is, I think we should get unstuck

Moja poenta je, mislim da bi trebalo da se oslobodimo

from the thinking that there's only one political system --

misli da postoji samo jedan politički sistem -

election, election, election --

izbori, izbori, izbori -

that could make it responsive.

na koji vlada reaguje.

I'm not sure, actually, elections produce

U stvari, nisam siguran da izbori još uvek stvaraju

responsive government anymore in the world.

odgovorne vlade u svetu.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

BG: Many seem to agree.

BĐ: Izgleda da se mnogi slažu.

One of the features of a democratic system

Jedna od osobina demokratskog sistema

is a space for civil society to express itself.

je mogućnost za izražavanje građanskog društva.

And you have shown figures about the support

Ti si pokazao brojke o podršci

that the government and the authorities have in China.

koju imaju vlada i službena lica u Kini.

But then you've just mentioned other elements

A onda si samo pomenuo druge elemente,

like, you know, big challenges, and there are, of course,

poput velikih izazova i, naravno,

a lot of other data that go in a different direction:

ima dosta drugih podataka koji govore drugačije:

tens of thousands of unrests and protests

desetine hiljada nemira i protesta

and environmental protests, etc.

i protesta za životnu sredinu, itd.

So you seem to suggest the Chinese model

Dakle, izgleda da ti želiš da pokažeš da u modelu Kine

doesn't have a space outside of the Party

ne postoji mogućnost za izražavanje građanskog društva

for civil society to express itself.

izvan Partije.

EXL: There's a vibrant civil society in China,

EKL: U Kini postoji promenljivo građansko društvo,

whether it's environment or what-have-you.

bilo da je reč o životnoj sredini ili nečem drugom.

But it's different. You wouldn't recognize it.

Ali ono je drugačije. Ne biste ga prepoznali.

Because, by Western definitions, a so-called civil society

Zato što, po zapadnjačkim definicijama, takozvano građansko društvo

has to be separate or even in opposition

mora da bude odvojeno ili čak u opoziciji

to the political system,

političkog sistema,

but that concept is alien for Chinese culture.

ali taj koncept je nepoznat kineskoj kulturi.

For thousands of years, you have civil society,

Hiljadama godina, postojalo je građansko društvo,

yet they are consistent and coherent

ali ono je dosledno i povezano

and part of a political order, and I think

i deo političkog sistema i mislim da je to

it's a big cultural difference.

velika kulturološka razlika.

BG: Eric, thank you for sharing this with TED. EXL: Thank you.

BĐ: Eriče, hvala ti što si podelio to sa TEDom. EKL: Hvala vam.