Eric X. Li: A tale of two political systems

Translator: Lucía López Zas Reviewer: Carme Paz

Good morning.

Bos días.

O meu nome é Eric Li, e nacín aquí.

My name is Eric Li, and I was born here.

But no, I wasn't born there.

Mais non, non nacín aí.

This was where I was born:

Aquí é onde nacín.

Shanghai, at the height of the Cultural Revolution.

Xangai, no cumio da Revolución Cultural.

My grandmother tells me that she heard

A miña avoa conta que escoitou

o son de disparos xunto cos meus primeiros choros.

the sound of gunfire along with my first cries.

When I was growing up, I was told a story

Cando fun medrando, contáronme unha historia

that explained all I ever needed to know about humanity.

que explicaba todo o que precisaba coñecer sobre a humanidade.

It went like this.

Esta é a historia.

All human societies develop in linear progression,

Todas as sociedades humanas desenvólvense nunha progresión lineal

beginning with primitive society, then slave society,

comezando pola sociedade primitiva, logo, a sociedade de escravos,

feudalism, capitalism, socialism,

feudalismo, capitalismo, socialismo

and finally, guess where we end up?

e finalmente, adiviñen con cal rematamos.

Communism!

Comunismo!

Sooner or later, all of humanity,

Máis tarde ou máis cedo, toda a humanidade

regardless of culture, language, nationality,

independentemente da cultura, lingua, nacionalidade,

will arrive at this final stage

chegará a esta etapa final

of political and social development.

do desenvolvemento político e social.

The entire world's peoples will be unified

Toda a xente do mundo enteiro se unirá

in this paradise on Earth

neste paraíso na Terra

and live happily ever after.

e vivirá feliz para sempre.

But before we get there, we're engaged

Pero antes de chegar alí, estamos comprometidos

in a struggle between good and evil,

nunha loita entre o ben e o mal,

the good of socialism against the evil of capitalism,

as bondades do socialismo contra as maldades do capitalismo,

and the good shall triumph.

e o ben sempre triunfará.

That, of course, was the meta-narrative

Isto, por suposto, era un metarrelato

distilled from the theories of Karl Marx.

destilado das teorías de Karl Marx.

And the Chinese bought it.

E os chineses comprárono.

We were taught that grand story day in and day out.

Ensináronnos esa gran historia día si, día non.

It became part of us, and we believed in it.

Formaba parte de nós, e criamos nela.

The story was a bestseller.

A historia era un best-séller.

About one third of the entire world's population

Preto dun terzo da poboación mundial

lived under that meta-narrative.

vivía baixo este metarrelato.

Then, the world changed overnight.

Entón, o mundo cambiou da noite para a mañá.

As for me, disillusioned by the failed religion of my youth,

Canto a min, desilusionado polo fracaso da relixión da miña mocidade,

I went to America and became a Berkeley hippie.

vin para América e convertinme nun hippy de Berkeley.

(Laughter)

(Risos)

Now, as I was coming of age, something else happened.

A medida que ía crecendo, sucedeu algo.

As if one big story wasn't enough,

Coma se cunha gran historia non fose dabondo,

I was told another one.

contáronme outra máis.

This one was just as grand.

Esta era igual de grande.

It also claims that all human societies

Tamén afirma que todas as sociedades humanas

develop in a linear progression towards a singular end.

desenvolvéronse nunha progresión lineal cara a un final singular.

This one went as follows:

Esta historia é como segue:

All societies, regardless of culture,

Todas as sociedades, independentemente da cultura,

be it Christian, Muslim, Confucian,

xa pode ser cristiá, musulmá, confucianista,

must progress from traditional societies

teñen que progresar dende as sociedades tradicionais

in which groups are the basic units

nas cales os grupos son as unidades básicas

to modern societies in which atomized individuals

ata as sociedades modernas nas cales os individuos atomizados

son as unidades soberanas,

are the sovereign units,

and all these individuals are, by definition, rational,

e todos estes individuos son, por definición, racionais,

and they all want one thing:

e todos queren unha cousa:

the vote.

o voto.

Because they are all rational, once given the vote,

Porque todos son racionais, unha vez que teñan o voto,

they produce good government

producirán un bo goberno

and live happily ever after.

e vivirán felices para sempre.

Paradise on Earth, again.

O paraíso na Terra, unha vez máis.

Sooner or later, electoral democracy will be

Máis tarde ou máis cedo, a democracia electoral será

the only political system for all countries and all peoples,

o único sistema político para todos os países e persoas,

with a free market to make them all rich.

cun mercado libre que os enriquecerá a todos.

But before we get there, we're engaged in a struggle

Mais antes de chegar alí, estamos inmersos nunha loita

between good and evil.

entre o ben e o mal.

(Laughter)

(Risos)

The good belongs to those who are democracies

O ben perténcelles ás democracias

and are charged with a mission of spreading it

e están a cargo da misión de expandilo

around the globe, sometimes by force,

ao redor do mundo, ás veces pola forza,

against the evil of those who do not hold elections.

contra as maldades daqueles que non realizan eleccións.

(Video) George H.W. Bush: A new world order...

George H.W. Bush: Unha nova orde mundial...

(Video) George W. Bush:... ending tyranny in our world...

George W. Bush: ...rematando coa tiranía no mundo...

Barack Obama: ...un só estándar para todos

(Video) Barack Obama:... a single standard for all

os que teñan o poder.

who would hold power.

Eric X. Li: Now --

Eric X. Li: Agora --

(Laughter) (Applause)

(Risos) (Aplausos)

This story also became a bestseller.

Esta historia tamén se converteu nun best-séller.

According to Freedom House,

De acordo coa Freedom House,

the number of democracies went from 45 in 1970

o número de democracias pasou de 45 no ano 1970

to 115 in 2010.

a 115 no ano 2010.

In the last 20 years, Western elites tirelessly

Nos últimos 20 anos, as elites occidentais incansablemente

trotted around the globe selling this prospectus:

foron ao redor do mundo vendendo a súa proposta.

Multiple parties fight for political power

Múltiples partidos loitando polo poder político

and everyone voting on them

e todas as persoas votándoos,

is the only path to salvation

ese é o único camiño á salvación

to the long-suffering developing world.

para o sufrido mundo en desenvolvemento.

Those who buy the prospectus are destined for success.

Aqueles que mercaron a proposta están destinados ao éxito.

Those who do not are doomed to fail.

Os que non, están condenados ao fracaso.

But this time, the Chinese didn't buy it.

Pero desta vez, os chineses non o mercaron.

Fool me once...

Se me enganas unha vez...

(Laughter)

(Risos)

The rest is history.

O resto é historia.

In just 30 years, China went from

En só 30 anos, China pasou de ser

one of the poorest agricultural countries in the world

un dos países agrícolas máis pobres do mundo

a converterse na segunda economía mundial.

to its second-largest economy.

Six hundred fifty million people

650 millóns de persoas

were lifted out of poverty.

saíron da pobreza.

Eighty percent of the entire world's poverty alleviation

O oitenta por cento do alivio mundial da pobreza

during that period happened in China.

durante ese período ocorreu en China.

In other words, all the new and old democracies

Noutras palabras, todas as democracias novas e vellas

put together amounted to a mere fraction

xuntas fixeron unha mera fracción

of what a single, one-party state did without voting.

do que fixo un só estado de partido único, sen votar.

See, I grew up on this stuff: food stamps.

Vedes, eu crecín con estas cousas: cupóns de comida.

A carne racionouse a uns poucos centos de gramos

Meat was rationed to a few hundred grams

per person per month at one point.

por persoa ao mes durante un tempo.

Needless to say, I ate all my grandmother's portions.

Non fai falta dicir, eu comía todas as porcións da miña avoa.

So I asked myself, what's wrong with this picture?

Así que me preguntei: cal é o problema aquí?

Here I am in my hometown,

Aquí estou na miña vila natal,

my business growing leaps and bounds.

o meu negocio crecendo rapidamente.

Entrepreneurs are starting companies every day.

Os empresarios están a crear empresas todos os días.

Middle class is expanding in speed and scale

A clase media expándese a unha velocidade e escala

unprecedented in human history.

sen precedentes na historia humana.

Yet, according to the grand story,

E aínda así, segundo a historia oficial,

none of this should be happening.

nada disto debía suceder.

So I went and did the only thing I could. I studied it.

Así que fun e fixen o único que podía facer. Estudeino.

Yes, China is a one-party state

Si, China é un estado de partido único

run by the Chinese Communist Party, the Party,

gobernado polo Partido Comunista da China, o Partido,

and they don't hold elections.

e non celebran eleccións.

Three assumptions are made

Fixéronse tres suposicións

by the dominant political theories of our time.

acordes coas teorías políticas dominantes do noso tempo.

Such a system is operationally rigid,

Un sistema así é operativamente ríxido,

politically closed, and morally illegitimate.

politicamente cerrado, e moralmente ilexítimo.

Well, the assumptions are wrong.

Ben, estas suposicións son erróneas.

The opposites are true.

As opostas son verdade.

Adaptability, meritocracy, and legitimacy

Adaptabilidade, meritocracia e lexitimidade

are the three defining characteristics

son as tres características definitorias

of China's one-party system.

do sistema de partido único de China.

Now, most political scientists will tell us

A maioría de politólogos dirá que

that a one-party system is inherently incapable

o sistema de partido único é inherentemente incapaz

of self-correction.

de autocorrixirse.

It won't last long because it cannot adapt.

Non durará moito porque non pode adaptarse.

Now here are the facts.

Mais aquí están os datos.

In 64 years of running the largest country in the world,

En 64 anos de goberno do país máis grande do mundo,

the range of the Party's policies has been wider

o conxunto de políticas do Partido foi máis amplo

than any other country in recent memory,

que calquera outro país da historia recente,

from radical land collectivization to the Great Leap Forward,

dende a radical colectivización de terras ata o Gran Salto Adiante,

then privatization of farmland,

e logo a privatización das terras de cultivo,

then the Cultural Revolution,

logo a Revolución Cultural,

then Deng Xiaoping's market reform,

logo a reforma de mercado de Deng Xiaoping,

then successor Jiang Zemin took the giant political step

logo o seu sucesor Jiang Zemin deu un paso político xigante

of opening up Party membership to private businesspeople,

coa apertura de afiliación ao Partido para os empresarios,

something unimaginable during Mao's rule.

algo inimaxinable durante o goberno de Mao.

So the Party self-corrects in rather dramatic fashions.

Así, o Partido autocorríxese nos momentos máis extremos.

Institutionally, new rules get enacted

Institucionalmente, as novas normas son adoptadas

to correct previous dysfunctions.

para corrixir disfuncións anteriores.

For example, term limits.

Por exemplo, límites de mandato.

Political leaders used to retain their positions for life,

Os líderes políticos retiñan os postos de por vida,

and they used that to accumulate power

para así acumular o poder

e perpetuar as súas normas.

and perpetuate their rules.

Mao was the father of modern China,

Mao foi o fundador da China moderna,

aínda así, o seu prolongado mandato levou a erros desastrosos.

yet his prolonged rule led to disastrous mistakes.

So the Party instituted term limits

Así que o Partido impuxo límites de mandato

with mandatory retirement age of 68 to 70.

cunha xubilación obrigatoria aos 68 ou 70 anos.

One thing we often hear is,

Unha cousa que escoitamos a miúdo é:

"Political reforms have lagged far behind economic reforms,"

"As reformas políticas quedaron por tras das reformas económicas,"

and "China is in dire need of political reform."

e "China precisa con urxencia unha reforma política."

But this claim is a rhetorical trap

Mais esta declaración é unha trampa retórica

hidden behind a political bias.

agachada detrás dun nesgo político.

See, some have decided a priori

Mirade, algúns xa decidiron a priori

what kinds of changes they want to see,

que tipo de cambios querían ver,

and only such changes can be called political reform.

e só eses cambios poden chamarse reformas políticas.

The truth is, political reforms have never stopped.

A verdade é que as reformas políticas nunca se detiveron.

Compared with 30 years ago, 20 years, even 10 years ago,

Comparado con hai 30 anos, 20 ou incluso 10,

every aspect of Chinese society,

todos os aspectos da sociedade chinesa,

how the country is governed,

como se gobernou o país,

from the most local level to the highest center,

dende o nivel máis local ata o centro do poder,

are unrecognizable today.

son hoxe irrecoñecibles.

Now such changes are simply not possible

Todos estes cambios son simplemente imposibles

without political reforms of the most fundamental kind.

sen as reformas políticas máis básicas.

Now I would venture to suggest the Party

Arriscaríame a suxerir que o Partido

is the world's leading expert in political reform.

é o principal experto do mundo en reforma política.

The second assumption is that in a one-party state,

A segunda suposición é que nun partido único,

power gets concentrated in the hands of the few,

o poder concéntrase nas mans duns cantos,

and bad governance and corruption follow.

o que produce malos gobernos e corrupción.

Indeed, corruption is a big problem,

En efecto, a corrupción é un gran problema,

but let's first look at the larger context.

pero miremos antes o contexto xeral.

Now, this may be counterintuitive to you.

Isto pode resultarvos contraditorio.

The Party happens to be one of the most meritocratic

O Partido resulta ser unha das institucións políticas

political institutions in the world today.

máis meritocráticas do mundo actual.

China's highest ruling body, the Politburo, has 25 members.

O máximo órgano de decisión de China, o Politburó, ten 25 membros.

In the most recent one, only five of them

E no máis recente, só cinco deles

came from a background of privilege, so-called princelings.

proviñan dun ambiente de privilexio, os chamados príncipes vermellos.

The other 20, including the president and the premier,

Os outros 20, incluído o presidente e o primeiro ministro,

came from entirely ordinary backgrounds.

viñan de ambientes totalmente comúns.

In the larger central committee of 300 or more,

No Comité central de 300 ou máis,

the percentage of those who were born

a porcentaxe de persoas que naceron

into power and wealth was even smaller.

nun ambiente de poder e riqueza foi aínda menor.

The vast majority of senior Chinese leaders

A inmensa maioría dos principais líderes chineses

worked and competed their way to the top.

traballaron e loitaron por chegar ao cume.

Compare that with the ruling elites

Comparade isto coas elites dirixentes

in both developed and developing countries,

en países desenvolvidos ou en desenvolvemento,

I think you'll find the Party being near the top

Creo que atoparedes o Partido nos primeiros postos

in upward mobility.

en mobilidade social ascendente.

The question then is, how could that be possible

A pregunta entón é: como puido ser isto posible

in a system run by one party?

nun sistema gobernado por un só partido?

Now we come to a powerful political institution,

Agora imos a unha institución política poderosa

little-known to Westerners:

descoñecida para occidentais:

the Party's Organization Department.

o Departamento de Organización do Partido.

The department functions like a giant

O Departamento funciona coma unha enorme

human resource engine that would be the envy

máquina de recursos humanos que sería a envexa

of even some of the most successful corporations.

incluso dalgunhas das empresas máis prósperas.

It operates a rotating pyramid

Dirixe unha pirámide xiratoria

made up of three components:

integrada por tres compoñentes:

civil service, state-owned enterprises,

servizo civil, empresas estatais,

and social organizations like a university

e organizacións sociais coma a universidade

or a community program.

ou os programas comunitarios.

They form separate yet integrated career paths

Forman carreiras separadas e aínda así integradas

for Chinese officials.

para funcionarios chineses.

They recruit college grads into entry-level positions

Recrutan graduados universitarios en posicións básicas

in all three tracks, and they start from the bottom,

nas 3 vías, e comezan dende a base,

called "keyuan" [clerk].

chamada "keyuan" [obreiro].

Then they could get promoted

Logo poderán ascender

through four increasingly elite ranks:

a través de 4 rangos ascendentes:

fuke [deputy section manager], ke [section manager], fuchu [deputy division manager], and chu [division manger].

fuke, ke, fuchu e chu.

Now these are not moves from "Karate Kid," okay?

Estes non son movementos de Karate Kid.

Son asuntos serios.

It's serious business.

The range of positions is wide,

A variedade de cargos é ampla,

from running health care in a village

dende a xestión da saúde nunha vila,

to foreign investment in a city district

ao investimento estranxeiro nun barrio urbano

to manager in a company.

ou a dirección dunha empresa.

Once a year, the department reviews their performance.

Unha vez ao ano, o departamento avalía o traballo.

They interview their superiors, their peers,

Entrevistan os superiores, compañeiros

their subordinates. They vet their personal conduct.

e subordinados. Aproban as condutas persoais.

They conduct public opinion surveys.

Levan a cabo enquisas de opinión pública.

Then they promote the winners.

E logo, ascenden os gañadores.

Throughout their careers, these cadres

Durante as súas carreiras, estes cadros

can move through and out of all three tracks.

poden moverse entre as 3 vías.

Over time, the good ones move beyond the four base levels

Co tempo, os mellores pasarán dos catro niveis básicos

to the fuju [deputy bureau chief] and ju [bureau chief] levels.

ata os niveis fuju e ju.

There, they enter high officialdom.

Alí, entrarán na alta burocracia.

By that point, a typical assignment will be

Neste punto, unha tarefa típica sería

to manage a district with a population in the millions

dirixir un distrito cunha poboación de millóns de persoas

or a company with hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.

ou unha compañía cuns ingresos de centos de millóns de dólares.

Just to show you how competitive the system is,

Só para amosarvos o competitivo que é o sistema,

in 2012, there were 900,000 fuke and ke levels,

en 2012, había 900 000 niveis fuke e ke,

600,000 fuchu and chu levels,

600 000 niveis fuchu e chu,

and only 40,000 fuju and ju levels.

e soamente 40 000 niveis fuju e ju.

After the ju levels,

Despois dos niveis ju,

the best few move further up several more ranks,

só algúns dos mellores ascenden uns cantos niveis máis,

and eventually make it to the Central Committee.

e finalmente chegan ao Comité Central.

The process takes two to three decades.

O proceso dura dúas ou tres décadas.

Does patronage play a role? Yes, of course.

Intervén o apadriñamento? Si, por suposto.

But merit remains the fundamental driver.

Pero os méritos son a clave fundamental.

In essence, the Organization Department runs

En esencia, o Departamento de Organización manexa

a modernized version of China's centuries-old

unha versión modernizada do centenario sistema chinés

mentoring system.

de mentores.

China's new president, Xi Jinping,

O novo presidente da China, Xi Jinping,

is the son of a former leader, which is very unusual,

é o fillo dun ex-dirixente, algo moi pouco frecuente,

first of his kind to make the top job.

o primeiro do seu tipo que chega ao máis alto.

Even for him, the career took 30 years.

Incluso a el lle levou 30 anos.

He started as a village manager,

Comezou como administrador dunha vila,

and by the time he entered the Politburo,

e cando entrou no Politburó,

he had managed areas with a total population

xa gobernara zonas cunha poboación total

of 150 million people

de 150 millóns de persoas.

and combined GDPs of 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars.

e cun PIB combinado de 1,5 billóns de dólares americanos.

Now, please don't get me wrong, okay?

Por favor, non me interpretedes mal, de acordo?

This is not a put-down of anyone. It's just a statement of fact.

Isto non é un desprezo a ninguén. É só a declaración dun feito.

George W. Bush, remember him?

George W. Bush, acordádesvos del?

This is not a put-down.

Isto non é un desprezo.

(Laughter)

(Risos)

Before becoming governor of Texas,

Antes de converterse en gobernador de Texas,

or Barack Obama before running for president,

ou Barack Obama antes de presentarse para presidente,

could not make even a small county manager

non poderían ser nin dirixentes dun pequeno condado

in China's system.

no sistema chinés.

Winston Churchill once said that democracy

Winston Churchill dixo que a democracia

is a terrible system except for all the rest.

é un sistema terrible sacando o resto.

Well, apparently he hadn't heard of the Organization Department.

Aparentemente non coñecía o Departamento da Organización.

Now, Westerners always assume that

Os occidentais sempre asumen que

multi-party election with universal suffrage

as eleccións multipartidistas con sufraxio universal

is the only source of political legitimacy.

son a única fonte de lexitimidade política.

I was asked once, "The Party wasn't voted in by election.

Unha vez preguntáronme: "O Partido nunca foi elixido nas urnas.

Where is the source of legitimacy?"

Onde está a súa lexitimidade?"

I said, "How about competency?"

Respondín: "E que hai da competencia?"

We all know the facts.

Todos coñecemos os feitos.

In 1949, when the Party took power,

En 1949, cando o Partido tomou o poder,

China was mired in civil wars, dismembered by foreign aggression,

China estaba sumida en guerras civís, dividida por agresións foráneas,

average life expectancy at that time, 41 years old.

daquela, a esperanza de vida era de 41 anos.

Today, it's the second largest economy in the world,

Hoxe, é a segunda potencia mundial,

an industrial powerhouse, and its people live

unha potencia industrial, e a súa xente vive

in increasing prosperity.

nunha prosperidade que medra.

Pew Research polls Chinese public attitudes,

Pew Research fixo enquisas sobre as actitudes públicas chinesas,

and here are the numbers in recent years.

e estas son as cifras dos últimos anos.

Satisfaction with the direction of the country: 85 percent.

Satisfacción coa dirección que leva o país: 85 %.

Those who think they're better off than five years ago:

Os que pensan que están mellor que hai 5 anos:

70 %.

70 percent.

Those who expect the future to be better:

Os que imaxinan que o futuro vai mellorar:

a whopping 82 percent.

un xigantesco 82 %.

Financial Times polls global youth attitudes,

O Financial Times pregunta polas actitudes globais da xuventude,

and these numbers, brand new, just came from last week.

e estas cifras, moi recentes, publicáronse a semana pasada.

Ninety-three percent of China's Generation Y

O 93 % da xeración Y chinesa

are optimistic about their country's future.

é optimista sobre o futuro do seu país.

Now, if this is not legitimacy, I'm not sure what is.

Entón, se isto non é lexitimidade, non sei que é.

In contrast, most electoral democracies around the world

Pola contra, a maioría das democracias electorais ao redor do mundo

are suffering from dismal performance.

están a sufrir un pésimo desempeño.

I don't need to elaborate for this audience

Non preciso explicarlle a esta audiencia

how dysfunctional it is, from Washington to European capitals.

como de disfuncional é isto, dende Washington ata as capitais europeas.

With a few exceptions, the vast number

Cunhas cantas excepcións, un gran número

of developing countries that have adopted electoral regimes

de países en desenvolvemento que adoptaron réximes electorais

are still suffering from poverty and civil strife.

aínda sofren pobreza e conflitos civís.

Governments get elected, and then they fall

Escóllense os gobernos, e logo caen

below 50 percent approval in a few months

por baixo do 50 % de aprobación aos poucos meses

and stay there and get worse until the next election.

e permanecen alí e empeoran ata as próximas eleccións.

Democracy is becoming a perpetual cycle

A democracia estase a converter nun ciclo perpetuo

of elect and regret.

de elixir e arrepentirse.

At this rate, I'm afraid it is democracy,

A este ritmo, temo que é a democracia,

not China's one-party system, that is in danger

non o sistema chinés de partido único, o que está en risco

of losing legitimacy.

de perder a lexitimidade.

Now, I don't want to create the misimpression

Ben, non quero crear unha impresión falsa

that China's hunky-dory, on the way

de que todo vai ben en China, en camiño de ser

to some kind of superpowerdom.

algo parecido a unha superpotencia.

The country faces enormous challenges.

O país enfróntase a enormes retos.

The social and economic problems that come

Os problemas socioeconómicos que veñen

with wrenching change like this are mind-boggling.

con cambios enormes coma este son alucinantes.

Pollution is one. Food safety. Population issues.

A polución é un. Seguridade alimentaria. Problemas de poboación.

On the political front, the worst problem is corruption.

Na fronte política, o peor dos problemas é a corrupción.

Corruption is widespread and undermines the system

A corrupción está moi estendida e debilita o sistema

and its moral legitimacy.

e a súa lexitimidade moral.

But most analysts misdiagnose the disease.

Pero moitos analistas erran diagnosticando a enfermidade.

They say that corruption is the result of the one-party system,

Din que a corrupción é o resultado do sistema unipartidista,

and therefore, in order to cure it,

e por iso, para curalo,

you have to do away with the entire system.

hai que eliminar o sistema ao completo.

But a more careful look would tell us otherwise.

Pero unha ollada máis coidadosa, diravos outra cousa.

Transparency International ranks China

Transparencia Internacional clasifica China

between 70 and 80 in recent years among 170 countries,

entre os postos 70 e 80 nos últimos anos nun total de 170 países,

and it's been moving up.

e continúa a subir.

India, the largest democracy in the world,

India, a democracia máis grande do mundo,

94 and dropping.

está no 94 e caendo.

For the hundred or so countries that are ranked below China,

Dos cento e pico países que están por baixo de China,

máis da metade son democracias electorais.

more than half of them are electoral democracies.

So if election is the panacea for corruption,

Así que se as eleccións son a panacea da corrupción,

how come these countries can't fix it?

como é que estes países non poden arranxala?

Now, I'm a venture capitalist. I make bets.

Son un capitalista de risco, fago apostas.

It wouldn't be fair to end this talk without

Non sería xusto rematar esta charla

putting myself on the line and making some predictions.

sen arriscarme e facer unhas cantas predicións.

So here they are.

Así que aquí están.

In the next 10 years, China will surpass the U.S.

Nos próximos 10 anos, China superará os Estados Unidos

and become the largest economy in the world.

e converterase na maior economía do mundo.

Income per capita will be near the top

A renda per cápita, rozará o máximo

of all developing countries.

de todos os países en desenvolvemento.

Frearase a corrupción, pero non se eliminará,

Corruption will be curbed, but not eliminated,

and China will move up 10 to 20 notches

e China subirá de 10 a 20 postos

to above 60 in T.I. ranking.

por riba do 60 na clasificación de Transparencia Internacional

Economic reform will accelerate, political reform will continue,

A reforma económica acelerarase, a reforma política continuará

and the one-party system will hold firm.

e o sistema unipartidista manterase firme.

We live in the dusk of an era.

Vivimos no ocaso dunha era.

Meta-narratives that make universal claims

Os metarrelatos que fan afirmacións universais

failed us in the 20th century

falláronnos no século XX

and are failing us in the 21st.

e seguen a fallarnos no século XXI.

Meta-narrative is the cancer

Os metarrelatos son o cancro

that is killing democracy from the inside.

que está a matar a democracia dende dentro.

Now, I want to clarify something.

Quero aclarar unha cousa.

I'm not here to make an indictment of democracy.

Non estou aquí para criticar a democracia.

On the contrary, I think democracy contributed

Ao contrario, penso que a democracia contribuíu

to the rise of the West and the creation of the modern world.

ao ascenso de Occidente e á creación do mundo moderno.

It is the universal claim that many Western elites

É a reivindicación universal que moitas elites occidentais

are making about their political system, the hubris,

están a facer sobre o seu sistema político, a arrogancia,

that is at the heart of the West's current ills.

o que está no corazón dos males actuais de Occidente.

If they would spend just a little less time

Se perdesen menos tempo

on trying to force their way onto others,

tratando de impoñerlles o seu sistema a outros,

and a little bit more on political reform at home,

e un pouco máis nas súas propias reformas políticas,

they might give their democracy a better chance.

farían algo mellor pola democracia.

China's political model will never supplant

O modelo político chinés nunca suplantará

electoral democracy, because unlike the latter,

a democracia electoral, porque ao contrario desta,

it doesn't pretend to be universal.

non pretende ser universal.

It cannot be exported. But that is the point precisely.

Non pode ser exportado. Pero este é precisamente o tema.

The significance of China's example

A importancia do exemplo chinés

is not that it provides an alternative,

non está en proporcionar unha alternativa,

but the demonstration that alternatives exist.

senón en demostrar que existen alternativas.

Let us draw to a close this era of meta-narratives.

Pechemos esta era de metarrelatos.

Communism and democracy may both be laudable ideals,

O comunismo e a democracia poden ser os dous ideais loables,

but the era of their dogmatic universalism is over.

pero a era do seu universalismo dogmático terminou.

Let us stop telling people and our children

Deixemos de dicirlle á xente e aos nosos fillos

there's only one way to govern ourselves

que só existe unha forma de gobernarnos

and a singular future towards which

e un futuro único cara ao que

all societies must evolve.

todas as sociedades deben evolucionar.

It is wrong. It is irresponsible.

Iso é incorrecto e irresponsable.

And worst of all, it is boring.

E o peor de todo, é aburrido.

Let universality make way for plurality.

Deixemos que a universalidade abra paso á pluralidade.

Perhaps a more interesting age is upon us.

Quizais se aproxime unha era máis interesante.

Are we brave enough to welcome it?

Somos valentes abondo como para darlle a benvida?

Thank you.

Grazas.

(Applause)

(Aplausos)

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks.

Grazas. Grazas. Grazas. Graciñas.

Bruno Giussani: Eric, stay with me for a couple of minutes,

Bruno Giussani: Eric, queda un par de minutos,

because I want to ask you a couple of questions.

porque quero facerche unhas preguntas.

I think many here, and in general in Western countries,

Penso que aquí, e en xeral nos países occidentais,

would agree with your statement about analysis

estarán de acordo coas túas declaracións sobre a análise

of democratic systems becoming dysfunctional,

dos sistemas democráticos que se volven disfuncionais,

but at the same time, many would kind of find

pero, ao mesmo tempo, moitos atoparán

unsettling the thought that there is an unelected

desacougante pensar que hai unha autoridade

authority that, without any form of oversight or consultation,

non elixida que, sen ningunha forma de supervisión ou consulta,

decides what the national interest is.

decide cal é o interese nacional.

What is the mechanism in the Chinese model

Cal é o mecanismo no modelo chinés

that allows people to say, actually,

que lle permite á xente dicir, de feito,

the national interest as you defined it is wrong?

que o interese nacional como se definiu é incorrecto?

EXL: You know, Frank Fukuyama, the political scientist,

EXL: Frank Fukuyama, o politólogo,

called the Chinese system "responsive authoritarianism."

chamoulle ao sistema chinés "autoritarismo receptivo."

It's not exactly right, but I think it comes close.

Isto non é exactamente correcto, pero penso que se achega.

So I know the largest public opinion survey company

Coñezo a empresa máis grande de enquisas de opinión pública

in China, okay?

en China.

Do you know who their biggest client is?

Sabe quen é o seu mellor cliente?

The Chinese government.

O goberno chinés.

Not just from the central government,

Non só dende o goberno central,

the city government, the provincial government,

o municipal, o provincial,

to the most local neighborhood districts.

ata a maioría dos distritos de barrio.

They conduct surveys all the time.

Realizan enquisas todo o tempo.

Are you happy with the garbage collection?

Estades contentos coa recollida de lixo?

Are you happy with the general direction of the country?

Estades contentos coa dirección xeral do país?

So there is, in China, there is a different kind of mechanism

Así que, en China, hai un tipo diferente de mecanismo

to be responsive to the demands and the thinking of the people.

para ter en conta as demandas e o que pensa a xente.

My point is, I think we should get unstuck

O que eu penso é que deberiamos despegarnos

from the thinking that there's only one political system --

do pensamento de que só hai un sistema político,

election, election, election --

eleccións, eleccións, eleccións,

that could make it responsive.

que pode que responda.

I'm not sure, actually, elections produce

Non estou seguro, de feito, as eleccións

responsive government anymore in the world.

xa non producen gobernos que respondan.

(Applause)

(Aplausos)

BG: Many seem to agree.

BG: Seica moitos concordan.

One of the features of a democratic system

Unha das características dun sistema democrático

is a space for civil society to express itself.

é o espazo para que a sociedade civil se exprese por si mesma.

And you have shown figures about the support

E amosaches cifras do apoio

that the government and the authorities have in China.

que o goberno e as autoridades teñen en China.

But then you've just mentioned other elements

Mais logo mencionaches outros elementos

like, you know, big challenges, and there are, of course,

como, xa sabes, grandes retos, e hai, claro,

a lot of other data that go in a different direction:

unha morea doutros datos que van nunha dirección diferente:

tens of thousands of unrests and protests

decenas de miles de axitacións e protestas

and environmental protests, etc.

e protestas ambientais, etc.

So you seem to suggest the Chinese model

E parece que suxires que o modelo chinés

doesn't have a space outside of the Party

non ten un espazo fóra do Partido

for civil society to express itself.

para que a sociedade civil se exprese.

EXL: There's a vibrant civil society in China,

EXL: Hai unha sociedade civil moi vibrante en China,

whether it's environment or what-have-you.

xa sexa polo medio ou o que queiras.

But it's different. You wouldn't recognize it.

Pero é diferente. Non poderías recoñecela.

Because, by Western definitions, a so-called civil society

Porque, nas definicións occidentais, a chamada sociedade civil

has to be separate or even in opposition

ten que estar separada ou incluso en oposición

to the political system,

ao sistema político,

but that concept is alien for Chinese culture.

pero ese concepto é descoñecido para a sociedade chinesa.

For thousands of years, you have civil society,

Durante miles de anos, tes unha sociedade civil,

yet they are consistent and coherent

mais é consistente e coherente

and part of a political order, and I think

e forma parte da orde política, e penso

it's a big cultural difference.

que é unha gran diferenza cultural.

BG: Eric, thank you for sharing this with TED. EXL: Thank you.

BG: Eric, moitas grazas por compartir isto con TED. EXL: Grazas.