Jennifer Healey: If cars could talk, accidents might be avoidable

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Mile Živković Lektor: Dejan Vicai

Let's face it:

Suočimo se s tim:

Driving is dangerous.

vožnja automobila je opasna.

It's one of the things that we don't like to think about,

To je jedna od stvari o kojima ne volimo da mislimo,

but the fact that religious icons and good luck charms

ali činjenica da se religiozne ikone i amajlije

show up on dashboards around the world

pojavljuju na instrument-tablama širom sveta

betrays the fact that we know this to be true.

odaje činjenicu da znamo da je ovo istina.

Car accidents are the leading cause of death

Saobraćajne nesreće su vodeći uzrok smrti

in people ages 16 to 19 in the United States --

kod ljudi između 16 i 19 godina u SAD -

leading cause of death --

vodeći uzrok smrti -

and 75 percent of these accidents have nothing to do

i 75% ovih nesreća nema nikakve veze

with drugs or alcohol.

sa drogama ili alkoholom.

So what happens?

Pa šta se dešava?

No one can say for sure, but I remember my first accident.

Niko ne zna tačno, ali sećam se svoje prve nesreće.

I was a young driver out on the highway,

Bila sam mladi vozač na autoputu,

and the car in front of me, I saw the brake lights go on.

i videla sam da su se upalila stop svetla vozila ispred mene.

I'm like, "Okay, all right, this guy is slowing down,

Rekla sam: "Okej, sve je u redu, ovaj tip usporava,

I'll slow down too."

i ja ću da usporim."

I step on the brake.

Pritisnula sam kočnicu.

But no, this guy isn't slowing down.

Ali ne, ovaj tip ne usporava.

This guy is stopping, dead stop, dead stop on the highway.

On staje, u mestu, na autoputu.

It was just going 65 -- to zero?

Išao je 110 na sat - do nule?

I slammed on the brakes.

Nagazila sam kočnicu.

I felt the ABS kick in, and the car is still going,

Osetila sam kako se aktivira ABS, i auto još uvek ide,

and it's not going to stop, and I know it's not going to stop,

i neće se zaustaviti i znam da se neće zaustaviti,

and the air bag deploys, the car is totaled,

i aktivira se vazdušni jastuk, auto je uništen,

and fortunately, no one was hurt.

i na sreću, niko nije povređen.

But I had no idea that car was stopping,

Ali nisam imala pojma da će taj auto stati,

and I think we can do a lot better than that.

i mislim da to možemo da radimo puno bolje.

I think we can transform the driving experience

Mislim da možemo preobratiti doživljaj vožnje

by letting our cars talk to each other.

tako što ćemo automobilima dozvoliti da međusobno pričaju.

I just want you to think a little bit

Želim da na trenutak razmislite

about what the experience of driving is like now.

o tome kakav je sada doživljaj vožnje.

Get into your car. Close the door. You're in a glass bubble.

Uđete u automobil. Zatvorite vrata. U staklenom ste zvonu.

You can't really directly sense the world around you.

Ne možete direktno osetiti svet oko vas.

You're in this extended body.

U produženom ste telu.

You're tasked with navigating it down

Imate zadatak da njime idete

partially-seen roadways,

putevima koje vidite delimično,

in and amongst other metal giants, at super-human speeds.

među drugim metalnim divovima, pri nadljudskim brzinama.

Okay? And all you have to guide you are your two eyes.

U redu? Sve što vas vodi su vaša dva oka.

Okay, so that's all you have,

To je sve što imate,

eyes that weren't really designed for this task,

oči koje nisu baš stvorene za ovaj zadatak,

but then people ask you to do things like,

ali vas onda ljudi pitaju da radite stvari poput

you want to make a lane change,

menjanja traka na putu,

what's the first thing they ask you do?

šta je prva stvar koju traže od vas?

Take your eyes off the road. That's right.

Da sklonite oči s puta. Tako je.

Stop looking where you're going, turn,

Prestanete da gledate kuda idete, skrenete,

check your blind spot,

proverite mrtvi ugao,

and drive down the road without looking where you're going.

i vozite putem bez gledanja kuda idete.

You and everyone else. This is the safe way to drive.

Vi i svi ostali. Ovo je bezbedan način vožnje.

Why do we do this? Because we have to,

Zašto radimo ovo? Jer moramo,

we have to make a choice, do I look here or do I look here?

moramo da odaberemo, da li da gledam ovde ili onde?

What's more important?

Šta je bitnije?

And usually we do a fantastic job

Obično fantastično odaberemo

picking and choosing what we attend to on the road.

to čemu ćemo posvetiti pažnju na putu.

But occasionally we miss something.

Ali povremeno nam nešto izmakne.

Occasionally we sense something wrong or too late.

Povremeno nešto opazimo na pogrešan način ili prekasno.

In countless accidents, the driver says,

U velikom broju nesreća, vozači kažu:

"I didn't see it coming."

"Nisam video da dolazi."

And I believe that. I believe that.

I ja verujem u to. Verujem u to.

We can only watch so much.

Možemo videti samo određeni deo toga.

But the technology exists now that can help us improve that.

Ali sada postoji tehnologija koja može da nam pomogne da to unapredimo.

In the future, with cars exchanging data with each other,

U budućnosti će automobili međusobno razmenjivati informacije,

we will be able to see not just three cars ahead

i moći ćemo da vidimo ne samo ispred tri automobila

and three cars behind, to the right and left,

i iza tri automobila, levo i desno,

all at the same time, bird's eye view,

i sve u isto vreme, ptičju perspektivu,

we will actually be able to see into those cars.

moći ćemo da vidimo i unutar tih automobila.

We will be able to see the velocity of the car in front of us,

Moći ćemo da vidimo brzinu automobila ispred nas,

to see how fast that guy's going or stopping.

da vidimo koliko brzo ide ili se zaustavlja.

If that guy's going down to zero, I'll know.

Ako će skroz stati, ja ću to da znam.

And with computation and algorithms and predictive models,

S proračunima, algoritmima i modelima predviđanja

we will be able to see the future.

moći ćemo da vidimo budućnost.

You may think that's impossible.

Možda mislite da je to nemoguće.

How can you predict the future? That's really hard.

Kako predvideti budućnost? To je jako teško.

Actually, no. With cars, it's not impossible.

Zapravo nije. S automobilima, nije nemoguće.

Cars are three-dimensional objects

Automobili su trodimenzionalni objekti

that have a fixed position and velocity.

s fiksiranom pozicijom i brzinom.

They travel down roads.

Kreću se putevima.

Often they travel on pre-published routes.

Često unapred poznatim trasama.

It's really not that hard to make reasonable predictions

Zaista nije teško napraviti razumna predviđanja

about where a car's going to be in the near future.

o tome gde će automobil biti u bliskoj budućnosti.

Even if, when you're in your car

Čak i ako ste u svojim kolima

and some motorcyclist comes -- bshoom! --

i neki motociklista prođe - vrum! -

85 miles an hour down, lane-splitting --

135 kilometara na sat, menjajući trake -

I know you've had this experience --

znam da ste iskusili ovo -

that guy didn't "just come out of nowhere."

taj tip se nije samo "pojavio niotkuda."

That guy's been on the road probably for the last half hour.

Taj tip je verovatno bio na putu poslednjih pola sata.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Right? I mean, somebody's seen him.

Zar ne? Mislim, neko ga je video.

Ten, 20, 30 miles back, someone's seen that guy,

Pre nekih 30 - 50 kilometara, neko ga je video,

and as soon as one car sees that guy

i čim ga vidi jedan automobil

and puts him on the map, he's on the map --

i stavi ga na mapu, on je na mapi -

position, velocity,

pozicija, brzina,

good estimate he'll continue going 85 miles an hour.

dobra procena da će nastaviti da ide 135km/h.

You'll know, because your car will know, because

Vi ćete to znati, jer će vaš automobil to znati,

that other car will have whispered something in his ear,

jer će mu to šapnuti neki drugi automobil:

like, "By the way, five minutes,

"E da, za pet minuta,

motorcyclist, watch out."

motociklista, pazi se."

You can make reasonable predictions about how cars behave.

Možete imati razumna predviđanja o tome kako će se ponašati automobili.

I mean, they're Newtonian objects.

To su Njutnovski objekti.

That's very nice about them.

To je lepa stvar u vezi sa njima.

So how do we get there?

Kako doći do toga?

We can start with something as simple

Možemo početi s nečim tako jednostavnim

as sharing our position data between cars,

poput razmenjivanja podataka o poziciji među automobilima,

just sharing GPS.

samo razmenom GPS-a.

If I have a GPS and a camera in my car,

Ako u kolima imam GPS i kameru,

I have a pretty precise idea of where I am

imam prilično dobar osećaj toga gde sam

and how fast I'm going.

i koliko brzo se krećem.

With computer vision, I can estimate where

Sa kompjuterskim vidom, mogu da procenim

the cars around me are, sort of, and where they're going.

gde se nalaze kola oko mene, na neki način i kuda idu.

And same with the other cars.

Isto je sa drugim automobilima.

They can have a precise idea of where they are,

Mogu da imaju precizan osećaj o tome gde su,

and sort of a vague idea of where the other cars are.

i nejasan osećaj o tome gde su drugi automobili.

What happens if two cars share that data,

Šta se desi ako dva automobila dele te podatke,

if they talk to each other?

ako razgovaraju jedan s drugim?

I can tell you exactly what happens.

Reći ću vam tačno šta se dešava.

Both models improve.

Oba modela se poboljšaju.

Everybody wins.

Svi su na dobitku.

Professor Bob Wang and his team

Profesor Bob Veng i njegov tim

have done computer simulations of what happens

su uradili kompjuterske simulacije toga šta se dešava

when fuzzy estimates combine, even in light traffic,

kada se nejasne procene kombinuju, čak i u lakšem saobraćaju

when cars just share GPS data,

kada automobili samo dele GPS podatke,

and we've moved this research out of the computer simulation

i ovo istraživanje smo prebacili iz kompjuterske simulacije

and into robot test beds that have the actual sensors

u robote za testiranje koji imaju prave senzore

that are in cars now on these robots:

koji su sada u automobilima na ovim robotima:

stereo cameras, GPS,

stereo kamere, GPS,

and the two-dimensional laser range finders

i dvodimenzionalne laserske detektore dometa

that are common in backup systems.

koji su česti u sistemima za podršku.

We also attach a discrete short-range communication radio,

Takođe stavljamo diskretni kratkodometni radio za komunikaciju

and the robots talk to each other.

i roboti međusobno pričaju.

When these robots come at each other,

Kada se ovi roboti susretnu,

they track each other's position precisely,

oni jedan drugom precizno prate poziciju

and they can avoid each other.

i mogu da se mimoiđu.

We're now adding more and more robots into the mix,

Sada u priču dodajemo sve više i više robota

and we encountered some problems.

i naišli smo na neke probleme.

One of the problems, when you get too much chatter,

Jedan od problema je, kada dođe do previše čavrljanja,

it's hard to process all the packets, so you have to prioritize,

teško je obraditi sve podatke, tako da morate da ih poređate po prioritetu

and that's where the predictive model helps you.

i tu vam pomaže model predviđanja.

If your robot cars are all tracking the predicted trajectories,

Ako svi vaši robotski automobili prate predviđene putanje

you don't pay as much attention to those packets.

na te podatke ne obraćate toliko pažnje.

You prioritize the one guy

Prioritet date onom tipu

who seems to be going a little off course.

koji izgleda kao da ide malo van putanje.

That guy could be a problem.

Taj tip bi mogao da bude problematičan.

And you can predict the new trajectory.

I možete predvideti novu putanju.

So you don't only know that he's going off course, you know how.

Sada nećete znati samo da ide van putanje, nego i kako to radi.

And you know which drivers you need to alert to get out of the way.

I znate koje vozače morate obavestiti da se sklone s puta.

And we wanted to do -- how can we best alert everyone?

I hteli smo da uradimo - kako najbolje obavestiti svakoga?

How can these cars whisper, "You need to get out of the way?"

Kako da ovi automobili šapnu: "Moraš da se skloniš s puta?"

Well, it depends on two things:

To zavisi od dve stvari:

one, the ability of the car,

pod jedan, mogućnosti automobila

and second the ability of the driver.

i pod dva, mogućnosti vozača.

If one guy has a really great car,

Ako jedan čovek ima stvarno odličan automobil,

but they're on their phone or, you know, doing something,

ali priča na telefon ili već radi nešto,

they're not probably in the best position

verovatno nije u najboljoj poziciji

to react in an emergency.

da reaguje u hitnom slučaju.

So we started a separate line of research

Počeli smo poseban deo istraživanja

doing driver state modeling.

gde smo modelirali stanje vozača.

And now, using a series of three cameras,

Koristeći komplet od tri kamere

we can detect if a driver is looking forward,

sada možemo otkriti da li vozač gleda napred,

looking away, looking down, on the phone,

u stranu, dole, da li telefonira

or having a cup of coffee.

ili pije kafu.

We can predict the accident

Možemo predvideti nesreću

and we can predict who, which cars,

i možemo predvideti ko i koji automobili

are in the best position to move out of the way

su u najboljoj poziciji da se sklone

to calculate the safest route for everyone.

i izračunaju najbezbedniju putanju za sve.

Fundamentally, these technologies exist today.

U osnovi, ove tehnologije danas postoje.

I think the biggest problem that we face

Mislim da je najveći problem sa kojim se suočavamo

is our own willingness to share our data.

naša volja da podelimo svoje podatke.

I think it's a very disconcerting notion,

Mislim da je to veoma uznemiravajuća zamisao,

this idea that our cars will be watching us,

da će nas posmatrati naši automobili,

talking about us to other cars,

o nama pričati sa drugim automobilima,

that we'll be going down the road in a sea of gossip.

da ćemo putem ići u moru tračeva.

But I believe it can be done in a way that protects our privacy,

Ali verujem da se to može uraditi na način koji štiti našu privatnost,

just like right now, when I look at your car from the outside,

kao sada, kada pogledam vaš automobil spolja,

I don't really know about you.

zapravo ne znam ništa o vama.

If I look at your license plate number,

Ako pogledam broj vaših tablica,

I don't really know who you are.

zaista ne znam ko ste vi.

I believe our cars can talk about us behind our backs.

Mislim da naši automobili mogu da pričaju o nama iza naših leđa.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And I think it's going to be a great thing.

Mislim da će to biti sjajna stvar.

I want you to consider for a moment

Želim da za trenutak razmotrite

if you really don't want the distracted teenager behind you

da li zaista želite da rastrojeni tinejdžer iza vas

to know that you're braking,

ne zna da kočite,

that you're coming to a dead stop.

da stajete u mestu.

By sharing our data willingly,

Ako voljno delimo svoje podatke,

we can do what's best for everyone.

možemo uraditi ono što je najbolje za sve.

So let your car gossip about you.

Pustite vaš automobil da trača o vama.

It's going to make the roads a lot safer.

To će puteve učiniti puno bezbednijim.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)