Jennifer Healey: If cars could talk, accidents might be avoidable

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

譯者: KA WAI WONG 審譯者: Emma Chiang

Let's face it:

面對現實吧

Driving is dangerous.

開車是危險的

It's one of the things that we don't like to think about,

這是我們不願去想的事

but the fact that religious icons and good luck charms

但現實中我們在世界各地看到

show up on dashboards around the world

汽車儀器板上的宗教畫像和平安符

betrays the fact that we know this to be true.

卻揭露我們其實知道開車危險

Car accidents are the leading cause of death

車禍是美國16至19歲青年

in people ages 16 to 19 in the United States --

死亡的主因

leading cause of death --

車禍是導致死亡的主因

and 75 percent of these accidents have nothing to do

而當中百分之七十五的車禍

with drugs or alcohol.

和毒品或酒精無關

So what happens?

到底發生了什麼?

No one can say for sure, but I remember my first accident.

沒人能確實說出 我記得我第一次車禍

I was a young driver out on the highway,

當時我還年輕 在高速公路上

and the car in front of me, I saw the brake lights go on.

看到前面車輛的煞車燈亮了

I'm like, "Okay, all right, this guy is slowing down,

我心想﹕好吧 這傢伙慢了下來

I'll slow down too."

那我也跟著慢下來吧

I step on the brake.

我跟著踩煞車

But no, this guy isn't slowing down.

但我錯了 他不是減慢速度

This guy is stopping, dead stop, dead stop on the highway.

而是停車 竟然在高速公路上停車

It was just going 65 -- to zero?

從時速六十五英哩降到... 零?

I slammed on the brakes.

我急踩剎車

I felt the ABS kick in, and the car is still going,

ABS系統啟動了 但車仍向前駛

and it's not going to stop, and I know it's not going to stop,

車繼續向前 我知道車不會停了

and the air bag deploys, the car is totaled,

氣囊彈出 車子毀了

and fortunately, no one was hurt.

幸好沒有傷亡

But I had no idea that car was stopping,

我完全沒想到那輛車會停

and I think we can do a lot better than that.

我認為我們可以做得更好

I think we can transform the driving experience

我們可以透過讓車之間對話

by letting our cars talk to each other.

改變駕駛的方式

I just want you to think a little bit

大家想一想

about what the experience of driving is like now.

現在我們是怎樣開車的

Get into your car. Close the door. You're in a glass bubble.

上車 關上門 在一個玻璃安全室裡

You can't really directly sense the world around you.

你無法直接感受周遭的世界

You're in this extended body.

在這個擴大了的軀殼裡

You're tasked with navigating it down

你的任務是

partially-seen roadways,

在看不清路面的情況下

in and amongst other metal giants, at super-human speeds.

在其他高速行駛的車輛間行駛

Okay? And all you have to guide you are your two eyes.

只有你的眼睛能幫助你

Okay, so that's all you have,

對 就只有你的眼睛

eyes that weren't really designed for this task,

我們的眼睛不是用來完成這任務的

but then people ask you to do things like,

可是人們總要求你做這樣的事

you want to make a lane change,

例如你要換條車道

what's the first thing they ask you do?

第一件要做的事是什麼?

Take your eyes off the road. That's right.

不看路面的情況 是的

Stop looking where you're going, turn,

不去看你前進的方向 然後轉彎

check your blind spot,

檢查是不是有盲點

and drive down the road without looking where you're going.

不看路 一直向前開

You and everyone else. This is the safe way to drive.

在座各位和其他人 都會認為這是安全駕駛

Why do we do this? Because we have to,

為什麼要這樣做? 因為我們必須

we have to make a choice, do I look here or do I look here?

必須選擇 是要看這邊 還是那邊

What's more important?

更重要的是甚麼?

And usually we do a fantastic job

通常我們都能在路上

picking and choosing what we attend to on the road.

好好挑選我們要走的路

But occasionally we miss something.

但偶爾我們也會出小差池

Occasionally we sense something wrong or too late.

有時候我們意識到做錯決定 已經太遲

In countless accidents, the driver says,

無數的車禍 司機都說

"I didn't see it coming."

沒看到有車駛過來

And I believe that. I believe that.

我相信這種說法 非常相信

We can only watch so much.

我們能看到的有限

But the technology exists now that can help us improve that.

不過現今科技可以幫助我們

In the future, with cars exchanging data with each other,

將來只要車輛間能互相交換資訊

we will be able to see not just three cars ahead

我們不僅可以看到前面三部輛車

and three cars behind, to the right and left,

還能看到後面三輛車 右邊的 左邊的

all at the same time, bird's eye view,

全都看到 就像在空中俯瞰

we will actually be able to see into those cars.

我們能夠實際觀察其他車

We will be able to see the velocity of the car in front of us,

我們可以知道前面車輛的速度

to see how fast that guy's going or stopping.

其他司機開得多快或是否要停車

If that guy's going down to zero, I'll know.

他要停車 我也會知道

And with computation and algorithms and predictive models,

透過電腦計算、規則系統和預知模擬

we will be able to see the future.

我們可以預知未來

You may think that's impossible.

或許大家會覺得不可能

How can you predict the future? That's really hard.

我們怎能預知未來 這太難了

Actually, no. With cars, it's not impossible.

其實這不難 車輛可以做到

Cars are three-dimensional objects

車是立體的

that have a fixed position and velocity.

有固定的位置和速度

They travel down roads.

在路上行駛

Often they travel on pre-published routes.

通常在規劃好的路上行駛

It's really not that hard to make reasonable predictions

要合理地預測 車子在短時間內

about where a car's going to be in the near future.

會怎樣 並不困難

Even if, when you're in your car

即使你駕駛時

and some motorcyclist comes -- bshoom! --

遇到幾台機車 咻 !

85 miles an hour down, lane-splitting --

以時速85英哩呼嘯而過 車子紛紛讓道

I know you've had this experience --

相信大家都有這經驗吧

that guy didn't "just come out of nowhere."

那人可不是憑空出現

That guy's been on the road probably for the last half hour.

他說不定都已經在路上跑了半小時

(Laughter)

[笑聲]

Right? I mean, somebody's seen him.

是吧？我是說 一定有人看到他

Ten, 20, 30 miles back, someone's seen that guy,

10哩前 20哩前 30哩前, 一定有人看到他

and as soon as one car sees that guy

而只要有一部車看到他

and puts him on the map, he's on the map --

把他放到地圖上 大家都會知道

position, velocity,

他的位置和速度

good estimate he'll continue going 85 miles an hour.

估計他會以每小時85英哩速度持續前進

You'll know, because your car will know, because

你的車子預報 你便會知道這訊息

that other car will have whispered something in his ear,

其他車也會對司機碎碎念

like, "By the way, five minutes,

就像: 順便一提 再過5分鐘

motorcyclist, watch out."

便會有機車 要小心

You can make reasonable predictions about how cars behave.

你可以合理地預測車在路的情況

I mean, they're Newtonian objects.

我是說 車子也遵從牛頓定律

That's very nice about them.

還好是這樣

So how do we get there?

那 我們要如何走到那一步?

We can start with something as simple

我們可以開始分享我們車與車的位置

as sharing our position data between cars,

從這件小事做起

just sharing GPS.

就只是分享 GPS (全球定位系統)

If I have a GPS and a camera in my car,

如果我的車子裝有 GPS 和鏡頭

I have a pretty precise idea of where I am

我就能精確地知道我所在的位置

and how fast I'm going.

以及我是以多快的速度前進

With computer vision, I can estimate where

有電腦輔助 我還可以估算我旁邊哪裡有車

the cars around me are, sort of, and where they're going.

以及他們要往哪裡去

And same with the other cars.

其他車也可以知道

They can have a precise idea of where they are,

他們可以知道自己身在何方

and sort of a vague idea of where the other cars are.

也能大約了解其他車子的位置

What happens if two cars share that data,

那麼如果兩部車子分享資訊, 會如何呢?

if they talk to each other?

假設它們可以對話呢?

I can tell you exactly what happens.

我可以告訴你會發生什麼事

Both models improve.

兩部車都獲得行進間的改善

Everybody wins.

是雙贏

Professor Bob Wang and his team

Bob Wang 教授和他的團隊

have done computer simulations of what happens

做了一個電腦模擬 看下列情況會產生什麼結果

when fuzzy estimates combine, even in light traffic,

當集合一些粗估的資料 用在行車順暢的情況下,

when cars just share GPS data,

讓車與車只是交換 GPS 資訊

and we've moved this research out of the computer simulation

我們將這個研究帶離電腦模擬

and into robot test beds that have the actual sensors

帶到裝有感應器的機器實驗上

that are in cars now on these robots:

把原本放車子的裝置, 用到機器身上

stereo cameras, GPS,

音響, 鏡頭, GPS

and the two-dimensional laser range finders

還有平面雷射測距儀

that are common in backup systems.

這些都是車子的標準配備

We also attach a discrete short-range communication radio,

我們還裝上一台短距的無線電機台

and the robots talk to each other.

讓機器可以相互溝通

When these robots come at each other,

當兩部機器朝彼此前進

they track each other's position precisely,

它們可以追蹤到彼此的精確位置

and they can avoid each other.

因此可避免互撞

We're now adding more and more robots into the mix,

我們現在在這個實驗中加入越來越多的機器

and we encountered some problems.

然後我們遇到了一些狀況

One of the problems, when you get too much chatter,

其一便是, 太吵了 當接收到太多瑣碎的言語

it's hard to process all the packets, so you have to prioritize,

就很難去處理所有的資訊封包 這時就得選擇優先順序

and that's where the predictive model helps you.

而預知模型系統 在這個時候就派上用場了

If your robot cars are all tracking the predicted trajectories,

如果機器人車子 一直行駛在可預期的軌道上

you don't pay as much attention to those packets.

就不用費心去解讀那些資訊封包

You prioritize the one guy

首先被挑出的這個人

who seems to be going a little off course.

往往就是有點偏移行進路線

That guy could be a problem.

那麼這個人就有可能是個麻煩

And you can predict the new trajectory.

然後你就可以再規劃一條新的軌道

So you don't only know that he's going off course, you know how.

所以你不只知道他要偏離航道了 還知道他要怎麼偏

And you know which drivers you need to alert to get out of the way.

也能知道遇到那個駕駛要提高警覺, 離遠一點

And we wanted to do -- how can we best alert everyone?

我們希望 -- 我們要如何警告其他人?

How can these cars whisper, "You need to get out of the way?"

這些車要怎麼小聲警告: "你得趕緊離開這裡"

Well, it depends on two things:

嗯, 這得要兩個條件配合

one, the ability of the car,

一, 車子的性能

and second the ability of the driver.

二, 駕駛本身的技巧

If one guy has a really great car,

就算這個人擁有一部很讚的車

but they're on their phone or, you know, doing something,

但是他如果邊開邊做其他事 像講手機之類的

they're not probably in the best position

他們可能就無法在緊急狀態中

to react in an emergency.

做出最佳的反應

So we started a separate line of research

因此我們又著手另一項實驗

doing driver state modeling.

做有關駕駛者的狀態模型

And now, using a series of three cameras,

我們使用三個一組的攝像機

we can detect if a driver is looking forward,

來偵測這個駕駛人是看前面

looking away, looking down, on the phone,

看別的地方, 看下面, 還是講手機

or having a cup of coffee.

或喝咖啡

We can predict the accident

我們可以預知事故

and we can predict who, which cars,

我們可以知道是誰以及哪一部車子

are in the best position to move out of the way

最好離開目前的道路

to calculate the safest route for everyone.

並且幫每一個人規劃最安全的路徑

Fundamentally, these technologies exist today.

最重要的是 這些科技在今天都已經有了

I think the biggest problem that we face

我認為眼前最大的困難是

is our own willingness to share our data.

大家是否願意做資訊分享

I think it's a very disconcerting notion,

我想這樣的概念或許讓人有點不安

this idea that our cars will be watching us,

因為我們的車子會監視著我們

talking about us to other cars,

還跟別的車子打小報告

that we'll be going down the road in a sea of gossip.

簡直就像航行在一片流言蜚語的汪洋中

But I believe it can be done in a way that protects our privacy,

但是我相信, 我們還是可以 在保有隱私的情況下執行

just like right now, when I look at your car from the outside,

好比現在, 如果我從外面看你的車

I don't really know about you.

我不會知道你是何許人物

If I look at your license plate number,

就算看著你的牌照號碼

I don't really know who you are.

我也不會知道你是誰

I believe our cars can talk about us behind our backs.

我相信我們的車子會在我們背後說長道短

(Laughter)

[笑聲]

And I think it's going to be a great thing.

但我認為那將會是件好事

I want you to consider for a moment

花幾分鐘想想

if you really don't want the distracted teenager behind you

你是不是真的不希望 那煩人的青少年在你背後

to know that you're braking,

知道你要煞車

that you're coming to a dead stop.

知道你要停下來

By sharing our data willingly,

倘若各位願意分享

we can do what's best for everyone.

我們可以幫每個人做到最好

So let your car gossip about you.

所以 讓你的車去東家長西家短吧

It's going to make the roads a lot safer.

這能讓道路使用更為安全

Thank you.

謝謝各位

(Applause)

[掌聲]