Jennifer Healey: If cars could talk, accidents might be avoidable

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

翻译人员: Catelyn Zhu 校对人员: June He

Let's face it:

让我们来面对一桩事实吧

Driving is dangerous.

开车是一件危险的事

It's one of the things that we don't like to think about,

它是我们不愿意去想的事物之一

but the fact that religious icons and good luck charms

但事实上那些神像和平安符

show up on dashboards around the world

世界各地都有人把它们摆在仪表盘的上方

betrays the fact that we know this to be true.

这就无意中透露出一个我们都心知肚明的事实

Car accidents are the leading cause of death

车祸是死亡的主因

in people ages 16 to 19 in the United States --

尤其在美国16到19岁的美国人群中

leading cause of death --

死亡的主因

and 75 percent of these accidents have nothing to do

并且百分之七十五的车祸

with drugs or alcohol.

都与毒品和酒精无关

So what happens?

那么 究竟发生了什么

No one can say for sure, but I remember my first accident.

没人能给出确切答案 但我记得我第一次出车祸

I was a young driver out on the highway,

我当时还是个开车的新手，当时正在外面高速路上开着车。

and the car in front of me, I saw the brake lights go on.

我突然看见我前面汽车的刹车灯亮了

I'm like, "Okay, all right, this guy is slowing down,

我当时想 好吧 他减速了

I'll slow down too."

那我也减速好了

I step on the brake.

我踩了刹车

But no, this guy isn't slowing down.

但是 我前面那个人并不是在减速

This guy is stopping, dead stop, dead stop on the highway.

他（竟然）停车了 突然停车—— 在高速路上突然停车

It was just going 65 -- to zero?

速度从65迈瞬降到0

I slammed on the brakes.

我猛踩刹车

I felt the ABS kick in, and the car is still going,

我当时感觉到我的车的防抱死系统启动了 但车还在行驶

and it's not going to stop, and I know it's not going to stop,

并没停下来的意思 我也知道我的车停不了了

and the air bag deploys, the car is totaled,

安全气囊也鼓了起来 车报废了

and fortunately, no one was hurt.

但幸运的是 没有人受伤

But I had no idea that car was stopping,

但我根本不知道我前面那辆车要停

and I think we can do a lot better than that.

而且我想我们可以比那做得更好

I think we can transform the driving experience

我想我们通过实现“让汽车之间对话”——

by letting our cars talk to each other.

来改变我们的驾驶体验

I just want you to think a little bit

我希望你们能思考片刻

about what the experience of driving is like now.

思考一下现在的驾驶体验是怎么样的

Get into your car. Close the door. You're in a glass bubble.

坐进车里 关上车门 你就已经置身在一个玻璃气泡中

You can't really directly sense the world around you.

你不能直接感受到你周围的世界

You're in this extended body.

因为你坐在车这样一个不小的空间里

You're tasked with navigating it down

你的任务就是导航

partially-seen roadways,

你只能看见道路的一部分

in and amongst other metal giants, at super-human speeds.

并且以超人类的速度行驶在其他的“金属巨人”间

Okay? And all you have to guide you are your two eyes.

对吧？ 你只能靠双眼来导航

Okay, so that's all you have,

对 你别无他法

eyes that weren't really designed for this task,

（但其实）眼睛并非是用来干着活儿的

but then people ask you to do things like,

但是有些事情你就必须得做，比方说，

you want to make a lane change,

你想换个车道

what's the first thing they ask you do?

那你第一件要做的事是什么

Take your eyes off the road. That's right.

将眼睛从车道上移开 对

Stop looking where you're going, turn,

将目光从你前进的方向移开 转弯

check your blind spot,

检查一下盲点

and drive down the road without looking where you're going.

然后就一直开 根本不注意自己在往哪里开

You and everyone else. This is the safe way to drive.

所有人都这么做 这是安全的驾驶方式

Why do we do this? Because we have to,

我们为什么这么做？ 因为我们别无选择

we have to make a choice, do I look here or do I look here?

我们必须作出一个抉择 是朝这儿看 还是朝那儿看

What's more important?

更重要的一点是什么呢

And usually we do a fantastic job

我们通常都做得很好

picking and choosing what we attend to on the road.

能够很好的选择我们要往哪个方向开

But occasionally we miss something.

但是偶然 我们也会忘记一些事情

Occasionally we sense something wrong or too late.

有时 当我们发觉有些东西出了问题的时候 已经为时过晚。

In countless accidents, the driver says,

在无数的车祸中 司机都会说

"I didn't see it coming."

“我没想到会这样。”

And I believe that. I believe that.

我相信他们的话 我相信

We can only watch so much.

我们看到的只有这么多而已

But the technology exists now that can help us improve that.

但是现存的科技可以帮我们改善这一点

In the future, with cars exchanging data with each other,

在未来 车与车之间可以交换数据

we will be able to see not just three cars ahead

我们就不仅只能看见前面的三台车了

and three cars behind, to the right and left,

还能看见后面的三台车，左边的，以及右边车。

all at the same time, bird's eye view,

同时看见 鸟瞰视野

we will actually be able to see into those cars.

我们可以看见这些车的内部

We will be able to see the velocity of the car in front of us,

我们可以看到我们前面那辆车的速度

to see how fast that guy's going or stopping.

看看前面那位什么时候会启动或停下

If that guy's going down to zero, I'll know.

假如那人的速度突然降到零，我就能知道了。

And with computation and algorithms and predictive models,

利用运算 代数以及预测模型

we will be able to see the future.

我们能看见未来

You may think that's impossible.

你可能会觉得这是不可能的

How can you predict the future? That's really hard.

你怎么能预测未来呢 太难了

Actually, no. With cars, it's not impossible.

事实上 不难 对于汽车来说 这并非不可能

Cars are three-dimensional objects

汽车是三维物体

that have a fixed position and velocity.

位置速度都是固定的

They travel down roads.

行使在路上的时候

Often they travel on pre-published routes.

它们通常都是按照预先规划好的道路行驶

It's really not that hard to make reasonable predictions

未来 想要预测汽车将要驶向什么方向

about where a car's going to be in the near future.

对之作出合理的预测并不困难

Even if, when you're in your car

即使你在自己的车里

and some motorcyclist comes -- bshoom! --

突然出现了一个开着摩托的人 砰！

85 miles an hour down, lane-splitting --

时速85英里，跟你抢车道

I know you've had this experience --

我知道你们曾经有过这样的经历

that guy didn't "just come out of nowhere."

那个开摩托的并非凭空出现

That guy's been on the road probably for the last half hour.

他可能之前的半小时就一直在路上开着吧

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Right? I mean, somebody's seen him.

对吧？我的意思是，有人看见过他

Ten, 20, 30 miles back, someone's seen that guy,

在10，20，30英里前，有人看见过他，

and as soon as one car sees that guy

只要一辆车看见那个人

and puts him on the map, he's on the map --

将他的信息置入地图中，他的位置就会显示在地图上了

position, velocity,

位置，速度

good estimate he'll continue going 85 miles an hour.

预测他将保持85英里的时速

You'll know, because your car will know, because

那你就知道了，因为你的车就会知道了，因为

that other car will have whispered something in his ear,

其他的车已经悄悄把这件事告诉它了

like, "By the way, five minutes,

打个比方，“告诉你一声，五分钟之后

motorcyclist, watch out."

会出现个开摩托的，注意。”

You can make reasonable predictions about how cars behave.

你可以对汽车的运动作出合理的预测。

I mean, they're Newtonian objects.

它们可是遵从牛顿力学的物体

That's very nice about them.

这是它们的优点

So how do we get there?

那么我们怎么样才能做到这一点呢

We can start with something as simple

我们可以从简单的开始

as sharing our position data between cars,

比如在车辆间共享位置数据

just sharing GPS.

只需要共享GPS

If I have a GPS and a camera in my car,

假如我的车内装有GPS和摄像头

I have a pretty precise idea of where I am

我就能清楚地知道自己的位置

and how fast I'm going.

自己的速度

With computer vision, I can estimate where

那么利用电脑视野，我就可以预测

the cars around me are, sort of, and where they're going.

我周围的车大概在哪里，他们在向哪个方向前进

And same with the other cars.

其他的车也是一样

They can have a precise idea of where they are,

他们也能知道自己的准确位置

and sort of a vague idea of where the other cars are.

并且大致知道其他车的位置

What happens if two cars share that data,

假如两车共享数据的话会发生什么呢？

if they talk to each other?

假如他们实现彼此对话又会发生什么呢?

I can tell you exactly what happens.

我可以很明确的告诉你答案

Both models improve.

这两种模型都会进步

Everybody wins.

共赢

Professor Bob Wang and his team

王鲍勃教授和他的团队

have done computer simulations of what happens

做了个电脑模拟系统

when fuzzy estimates combine, even in light traffic,

来研究 当我们结合不同的模糊预测的时候会发生什么 即使只是在交通情况通畅、

when cars just share GPS data,

汽车仅仅共享GPS数据时

and we've moved this research out of the computer simulation

之后 我们让这项研究不仅限于电脑模拟

and into robot test beds that have the actual sensors

我们还用机器人测试床 它们用到的传感器

that are in cars now on these robots:

正是当下汽车里真正在用到的传感器 在这些机器人上有

stereo cameras, GPS,

立体相机 GPS

and the two-dimensional laser range finders

二位激光测距仪

that are common in backup systems.

这些（也）都是备用系统中非常常见的

We also attach a discrete short-range communication radio,

我们再安装一个离散短距离无线电

and the robots talk to each other.

实现机器人间的通话

When these robots come at each other,

当这些机器人遇见彼此时

they track each other's position precisely,

它们能够准确地追踪彼此的位置

and they can avoid each other.

并可躲避彼此

We're now adding more and more robots into the mix,

我们现在正在向这样的混合系统中 添加更多的机器人

and we encountered some problems.

我们也遇到了一些问题

One of the problems, when you get too much chatter,

问题之一就是 当（汽车间的）“悄悄话”太泛滥

it's hard to process all the packets, so you have to prioritize,

就很难处理所有的信息 所以你必须抓重点

and that's where the predictive model helps you.

在这样的情况下预测模型就可以派上用场了

If your robot cars are all tracking the predicted trajectories,

假如你的机器人机器正在追踪所有已预测的轨迹

you don't pay as much attention to those packets.

那么你就不用花费太多的精力去关注那些了

You prioritize the one guy

你可以将重心放在某台

who seems to be going a little off course.

看上去有些偏离航向的车上

That guy could be a problem.

那台车可能是一个隐患

And you can predict the new trajectory.

那你就可以预测新的路线

So you don't only know that he's going off course, you know how.

这样你不仅知道了它正在偏离航向 你还知道了它是怎样偏离的

And you know which drivers you need to alert to get out of the way.

而且你还能知道你该提醒哪些司机注意躲避

And we wanted to do -- how can we best alert everyone?

我们一直也想这么做 可是怎样提醒他人才好呢

How can these cars whisper, "You need to get out of the way?"

车怎么可能悄悄给彼此送信 说“你得躲一躲”

Well, it depends on two things:

这个取决于两件事

one, the ability of the car,

第一 汽车的能力

and second the ability of the driver.

第二 司机的能力

If one guy has a really great car,

假如一个人的车超棒

but they're on their phone or, you know, doing something,

但他在打电话或者，你懂得，开开小差

they're not probably in the best position

那他可能状态不佳

to react in an emergency.

在面对紧急情况的时候措手不及

So we started a separate line of research

所以我们开展了一条独立的研究线路

doing driver state modeling.

司机状态模型

And now, using a series of three cameras,

我们利用一系列三个摄像头

we can detect if a driver is looking forward,

我们可以监测这个司机是在向前看

looking away, looking down, on the phone,

向边上看 向下看 打电话

or having a cup of coffee.

还是喝咖啡

We can predict the accident

我们能预测车祸

and we can predict who, which cars,

我们可以预测哪些司机 哪些车

are in the best position to move out of the way

能够最快的离开将要出现事故的路线

to calculate the safest route for everyone.

为每个人算出最安全的线路

Fundamentally, these technologies exist today.

最根本的一点 这些技术现在已经成为了现实

I think the biggest problem that we face

我认为我们面临的最大的问题

is our own willingness to share our data.

就是我们自己是否愿意分享自己的数据

I think it's a very disconcerting notion,

我认为这是一个非常令人不安的想法

this idea that our cars will be watching us,

设想我们自己的车将要监视着我们

talking about us to other cars,

跟其他的车分享我们的一举一动

that we'll be going down the road in a sea of gossip.

那样我们就像开车穿过 对我们指指点点的人群

But I believe it can be done in a way that protects our privacy,

但我想这件事可以在保护我们隐私的情况下成功

just like right now, when I look at your car from the outside,

就像现在一样 当我在外面看向你的车的时候

I don't really know about you.

我并不能真正的了解你

If I look at your license plate number,

当我看你的车牌号码时

I don't really know who you are.

我并不能知道你是谁

I believe our cars can talk about us behind our backs.

我觉得我们的车完全能在我们的背后谈论我们

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And I think it's going to be a great thing.

而且 我认为这是一件非常好的事

I want you to consider for a moment

我希望你们能思考片刻

if you really don't want the distracted teenager behind you

假如你真心不想让 开在你后面的心不在焉的年轻人

to know that you're braking,

知道你要停车

that you're coming to a dead stop.

你要突然刹车的话

By sharing our data willingly,

通过自愿分享我们的数据

we can do what's best for everyone.

我们可以实现人人共赢

So let your car gossip about you.

所以让你的车“八卦”你吧

It's going to make the roads a lot safer.

这会让我们的道路更安全

Thank you.

谢谢大家

(Applause)

（鼓掌）