Jennifer Healey: If cars could talk, accidents might be avoidable

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevoditelj: Martina Dolenčić Recezent: SIBELA KESAC

Let's face it:

Suočimo se

Driving is dangerous.

Vožnja je opasna.

It's one of the things that we don't like to think about,

To je jedna od stvari o kojima ne volimo razmišljati,

but the fact that religious icons and good luck charms

ali činjenica da se religijske ikone i simboli sreće

show up on dashboards around the world

pojavljuju na kontrolnim pločama po cijelome svijetu

betrays the fact that we know this to be true.

odaje činjenicu da znamo da je to istina.

Car accidents are the leading cause of death

Automobilske nesreće su glavni uzrok smrti

in people ages 16 to 19 in the United States --

kod ljudi starih 16 do 19 godina u Americi--

leading cause of death --

glavni uzrok smrti--

and 75 percent of these accidents have nothing to do

i 75% tih nesreća nema veze

with drugs or alcohol.

sa drogama i alkoholom.

So what happens?

Onda, što se događa?

No one can say for sure, but I remember my first accident.

Nitko ne može sa sigurnošću reći, ali ja se sjećam svoje prve nesreće.

I was a young driver out on the highway,

Bila sam mladi vozač na autocesti,

and the car in front of me, I saw the brake lights go on.

i automobil ispred mene, vidjela sam da se pale svjetla kočenja.

I'm like, "Okay, all right, this guy is slowing down,

Mislila sam, "Ok, sve u redu, on usporava,

I'll slow down too."

usporit ću i ja."

I step on the brake.

Pritisnula sam kočnicu.

But no, this guy isn't slowing down.

Ali ne, on ne usporava.

This guy is stopping, dead stop, dead stop on the highway.

On se zaustavlja, staje na autocesti.

It was just going 65 -- to zero?

Vozio je 100-- prema nuli?

I slammed on the brakes.

Nagazila sam na kočnicu.

I felt the ABS kick in, and the car is still going,

Osjetila sam ABS, a automobil se i dalje kreće,

and it's not going to stop, and I know it's not going to stop,

i neće se zaustaviti, znala sam da se neće zaustaviti,

and the air bag deploys, the car is totaled,

zračni jastuk se otvara, auto je totalka,

and fortunately, no one was hurt.

i na sreću, nitko nije nastradao.

But I had no idea that car was stopping,

Ali ja nisam imala pojma da se taj automobil zaustavljao,

and I think we can do a lot better than that.

i mislim da to možemo promijeniti.

I think we can transform the driving experience

Mislim da možemo promijeniti iskustvo vožnje

by letting our cars talk to each other.

tako da pustimo da automobili razgovaraju jedni s drugima.

I just want you to think a little bit

Samo želim da malo razmislite

about what the experience of driving is like now.

o iskustvu vožnje.

Get into your car. Close the door. You're in a glass bubble.

Uđite u svoj automobil. Zatvorite vrata. Vi ste u staklenom balonu.

You can't really directly sense the world around you.

Ne možete izravno osjetiti svijet oko vas.

You're in this extended body.

Vi ste u ovom proširenom tijelu.

You're tasked with navigating it down

Zaduženi ste da njime upravljate

partially-seen roadways,

djelomično vidljivim cestama,

in and amongst other metal giants, at super-human speeds.

u i među ostalim metalnim divovima, pri super ljudskim brzinama.

Okay? And all you have to guide you are your two eyes.

U redu? I sve što vas vodi su vaše oči.

Okay, so that's all you have,

U redu, to je sve što imate,

eyes that weren't really designed for this task,

oči koje zaista nisu stvorene za ovaj zadatak,

but then people ask you to do things like,

ali onda vas ljudi traže da radite stvari poput,

you want to make a lane change,

želite li se prestrojavati,

what's the first thing they ask you do?

koja je prva stvar koju vas traže da napravite?

Take your eyes off the road. That's right.

Skrenite pogled s ceste. Točno to.

Stop looking where you're going, turn,

Prestanite gledati kamo idete, okrenite se,

check your blind spot,

provjerite mrtvi kut,

and drive down the road without looking where you're going.

i vozite po cesti bez da gledate kamo idete.

You and everyone else. This is the safe way to drive.

Vi i svi ostali. To je siguran način vožnje.

Why do we do this? Because we have to,

Zašto to činimo? Zato što moramo,

we have to make a choice, do I look here or do I look here?

moramo odabrati, hoću li pogledati ovdje ili ondje?

What's more important?

Što je važnije?

And usually we do a fantastic job

I uglavnom odradimo fantastičan posao

picking and choosing what we attend to on the road.

i uspijemo opaziti sve bitno na cesti.

But occasionally we miss something.

Ali ponekad nešto propustimo.

Occasionally we sense something wrong or too late.

Ponekad opazimo nešto krivo ili prekasno.

In countless accidents, the driver says,

U bezbroj nesreća, vozači kažu,

"I didn't see it coming."

"Nisam vidio da dolazi."

And I believe that. I believe that.

I ja to vjerujem. Vjerujem.

We can only watch so much.

Ne možemo vidjeti sve.

But the technology exists now that can help us improve that.

Ali, s današnjom tehnologijom možemo to poboljšati.

In the future, with cars exchanging data with each other,

U budućnosti, sa izmjenom podataka među automobilima,

we will be able to see not just three cars ahead

bit ćemo u mogućnosti vidjeti, ne samo tri automobila sprijeda

and three cars behind, to the right and left,

i tri automobila straga, lijevo i desno,

all at the same time, bird's eye view,

sve u isto vrijeme, ptičja perspektiva,

we will actually be able to see into those cars.

već ćemo biti u mogućnosti vidjeti unutrašnjost tih automobila.

We will be able to see the velocity of the car in front of us,

Bit ćemo u mogućnosti vidjeti brzinu automobila ispred nas,

to see how fast that guy's going or stopping.

kako bi vidjeli kako brzo osoba vozi ili zastaje.

If that guy's going down to zero, I'll know.

Ako se ta osoba zaustavlja, znat ćemo.

And with computation and algorithms and predictive models,

I sa izračunima i algoritmima i predvidivim modelima,

we will be able to see the future.

bit ćemo u mogućnosti vidjeti budućnost.

You may think that's impossible.

Možda mislite da je to nemoguće.

How can you predict the future? That's really hard.

Kako možemo predvidjeti budućnost? To je zaista teško.

Actually, no. With cars, it's not impossible.

Zapravo, ne. Sa automobilima to nije nemoguće.

Cars are three-dimensional objects

Automobili su trodimenzionalni objekti

that have a fixed position and velocity.

koji imaju stalnu poziciju i brzinu.

They travel down roads.

Putuju cestama.

Often they travel on pre-published routes.

Često putuju na unaprijed objavljenim rutama.

It's really not that hard to make reasonable predictions

Zaista nije tako teško napraviti razumna predviđanja

about where a car's going to be in the near future.

o tome gdje će automobili biti u bližoj budućnosti.

Even if, when you're in your car

Čak i kada ste u automobilu

and some motorcyclist comes -- bshoom! --

i neki motociklist dolazi--bsoom!--

85 miles an hour down, lane-splitting --

135 kilometara na sat, po sredini ceste, između vozila,

I know you've had this experience --

Znam da ste imali ovakvo iskustvo--

that guy didn't "just come out of nowhere."

ta osoba nije došla "niotkuda."

That guy's been on the road probably for the last half hour.

Ta je osoba bila na cesti vjerojatno zadnjih pola sata.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Right? I mean, somebody's seen him.

Zar ne? Mislim, netko ju je vidio.

Ten, 20, 30 miles back, someone's seen that guy,

10, 20, 30 kilometara otraga, netko je tu osobu vidio,

and as soon as one car sees that guy

i čim jedan automobil vidi tu osobu

and puts him on the map, he's on the map --

i stavi ga na kartu, on je na karti--

position, velocity,

pozicija, brzina,

good estimate he'll continue going 85 miles an hour.

vrlo je vjerojatno da će on nastaviti ići 135 km na sat.

You'll know, because your car will know, because

Vi ćete to znati, zato što će vaš automobil znati, jer

that other car will have whispered something in his ear,

će taj drugi automobil šapnuti nešto njemu na uho,

like, "By the way, five minutes,

poput, "Usput, pet minuta,

motorcyclist, watch out."

motociklist, pazi se."

You can make reasonable predictions about how cars behave.

Možete napraviti razumna predviđanja o tome kako se automobili ponašaju.

I mean, they're Newtonian objects.

Mislim, oni su Newtonovi objekti.

That's very nice about them.

To je ono lijepo kod njih.

So how do we get there?

Onda, kako stižemo tamo?

We can start with something as simple

Možemo započeti s nečim jednostavnim

as sharing our position data between cars,

poput razmjene podataka o našoj poziciji između automobila,

just sharing GPS.

samo dijeljenjem GPS-a.

If I have a GPS and a camera in my car,

Ako ja imam GPS i kameru u svom automobilu,

I have a pretty precise idea of where I am

Mogu prilično točno znati gdje se nalazim

and how fast I'm going.

i kako brzo se krećem.

With computer vision, I can estimate where

Pomoću računala, mogu otprilike procjeniti

the cars around me are, sort of, and where they're going.

gdje se nalaze automobile oko mene, i kamo idu.

And same with the other cars.

I isto je sa ostalim autmobilima.

They can have a precise idea of where they are,

I oni mogu točno znati gdje se nalaze,

and sort of a vague idea of where the other cars are.

i otprilike znati gdje se nalaze ostali .

What happens if two cars share that data,

Što se događa ako dva automobila podijele te podatke,

if they talk to each other?

ako razgovaraju jedan s drugim?

I can tell you exactly what happens.

Mogu vam točno reći što se događa.

Both models improve.

Poboljšanje oba modela.

Everybody wins.

Svi su na dobitku.

Professor Bob Wang and his team

Profesor Bob Wang i njegov tim

have done computer simulations of what happens

napravili su računalnu simulaciju o tome što se događa

when fuzzy estimates combine, even in light traffic,

kada se kombiniraju nejasne procjene ,čak i sa semaforima

when cars just share GPS data,

kada automobili dijele GPS podatke,

and we've moved this research out of the computer simulation

i prenesli smo ovo istraživanje iz računalne simulacije

and into robot test beds that have the actual sensors

u probni robot koji ima stvarne senzore

that are in cars now on these robots:

koji su sada u automobilu na tim robotima:

stereo cameras, GPS,

kamera, GPS,

and the two-dimensional laser range finders

i dvodimenzionalni laserski daljinomjer

that are common in backup systems.

koji su uobičajeni u sigurnosnim sustavima.

We also attach a discrete short-range communication radio,

Također smo pridodali i diskretni komunikacijski radio kratkog dometa,

and the robots talk to each other.

i roboti pričaju jedni s drugima.

When these robots come at each other,

Kada ti roboti dođu jedan drugome,

they track each other's position precisely,

prate pozicije jedan drugome vrlo precizno,

and they can avoid each other.

i mogu izbjeći jedan drugoga.

We're now adding more and more robots into the mix,

Trenutno nadodajemo sve više i više robota u taj mix,

and we encountered some problems.

i naišli smo na neke probleme.

One of the problems, when you get too much chatter,

Jedan je problem, kada se previše brblja,

it's hard to process all the packets, so you have to prioritize,

teško je procesuirati sve pakete, pa morate odrediti prioritete,

and that's where the predictive model helps you.

i tu vam model predviđanja pomaže.

If your robot cars are all tracking the predicted trajectories,

Ako vaši roboti automobili svi prate predviđene putanje,

you don't pay as much attention to those packets.

ne obraćate toliko pozornosti na te pakete.

You prioritize the one guy

Prioritizirate jednu osobu

who seems to be going a little off course.

koja se čudno kreće.

That guy could be a problem.

Ta bi osoba mogla biti problem.

And you can predict the new trajectory.

I onda možete predvidjeti novu putanju.

So you don't only know that he's going off course, you know how.

Stoga ne samo da znate da se čudno kreće, već znate i kako.

And you know which drivers you need to alert to get out of the way.

I znate koje vozače morate upozoriti da se sklone s puta.

And we wanted to do -- how can we best alert everyone?

I želimo učiniti-- kako bi najbolje upozorili ostale?

How can these cars whisper, "You need to get out of the way?"

Kako mogu ti automobili šapnuti, "Moraš se skloniti s puta?"

Well, it depends on two things:

Pa, to ovisi o dvije stvari:

one, the ability of the car,

prva je sposobnost automobila,

and second the ability of the driver.

a druga sposobnost vozača.

If one guy has a really great car,

Ako neka osoba ima zaista super automobil,

but they're on their phone or, you know, doing something,

ali razgovara na mobitel, ili, znate već, nešto radi,

they're not probably in the best position

vjerojatno nisu u najboljoj poziciji

to react in an emergency.

da reagiraju na hitan slučaj.

So we started a separate line of research

Tako da smo počeli odvojenu liniju istraživanja

doing driver state modeling.

vezanu za stanje vozača.

And now, using a series of three cameras,

I sada, koristeći seriju od tri kamere,

we can detect if a driver is looking forward,

možemo detektirati ako vozač gleda naprijed,

looking away, looking down, on the phone,

gleda okolo, gleda dolje, ako je na telefonu,

or having a cup of coffee.

ili pije kavu.

We can predict the accident

Možemo predvidjeti nesreću

and we can predict who, which cars,

i možemo predvidjeti tko, koji automobili,

are in the best position to move out of the way

su u najboljoj poziciji da se maknu s puta

to calculate the safest route for everyone.

kako bi izračunali najsigurniju rutu za sve.

Fundamentally, these technologies exist today.

Fundamentalno, ova tehnologija danas postoji.

I think the biggest problem that we face

Mislim da je najveći problem s kojim se suočavamo

is our own willingness to share our data.

naša volja da podijelimo podatke.

I think it's a very disconcerting notion,

Mislim da je to vrlo neugodna zamisao,

this idea that our cars will be watching us,

ova ideja da će nas automobili gledati,

talking about us to other cars,

razgovarati o nama s ostalim automobilima,

that we'll be going down the road in a sea of gossip.

da ćemo ići cestom u moru tračeva.

But I believe it can be done in a way that protects our privacy,

Ali vjerujem da to može biti napravljeno na način da se zaštiti naša privatnost,

just like right now, when I look at your car from the outside,

kao što sada, kada gledam u vaš automobil izvana,

I don't really know about you.

zapravo ne znam ništa o vama.

If I look at your license plate number,

Ako pogledam broj vaše registarske ploče,

I don't really know who you are.

zapravo ne znam tko ste.

I believe our cars can talk about us behind our backs.

Vjerujem da naši automobili mogu razgovarati o nama iza naših leđa.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And I think it's going to be a great thing.

I mislim da bi to bila odlična stvar.

I want you to consider for a moment

Želim da na trenutak razmotrite

if you really don't want the distracted teenager behind you

da li zaista ne želite da rastrojeni tinjedžera iza vas

to know that you're braking,

zna da vi kočite,

that you're coming to a dead stop.

da se zaustavljate.

By sharing our data willingly,

Šireći svoje podatke dobrovoljno,

we can do what's best for everyone.

možemo učini ono što je najbolje za svih.

So let your car gossip about you.

Stoga, dopustite da vas vaši automobili ogovaraju.

It's going to make the roads a lot safer.

To će učiniti ceste puno sigurnijima.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)