Thomas Insel: Toward a new understanding of mental illness

193,556 views ・ 2013-04-16

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Thu-Huong Ha
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Prevodilac: Maja Budišin Lukin Lektor: Mile Živković
00:12
So let's start with some good news,
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Započnimo nekim dobrim vestima,
00:15
and the good news has to do with what do we know
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a dobre vesti se odnose na to - šta mi znamo
00:17
based on biomedical research
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o biomedicinskim istraživanjima
00:20
that actually has changed the outcomes
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koja su zapravo promenila rezultate
00:23
for many very serious diseases?
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mnogih veoma ozbiljnih bolesti?
00:26
Let's start with leukemia,
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Započnimo s leukemijom,
00:28
acute lymphoblastic leukemia, ALL,
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akutnom limfoblastnom leukemijom, ALL,
00:31
the most common cancer of children.
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najčešćim oblikom raka kod dece.
00:33
When I was a student,
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Kada sam bio student
00:35
the mortality rate was about 95 percent.
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stopa smrtnosti je bila 95 procenata.
00:39
Today, some 25, 30 years later, we're talking about
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Danas, nekih 25-30 godina kasnije, govorimo o
00:42
a mortality rate that's reduced by 85 percent.
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smrtnosti smanjenoj za 85 procenata.
00:46
Six thousand children each year
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Svake godine se izleči šest hiljada dece,
00:49
who would have previously died of this disease are cured.
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koja bi ranije umrla od ove bolesti.
00:53
If you want the really big numbers,
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Ako želite zaista visoke brojke,
00:55
look at these numbers for heart disease.
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pogledajte ove brojke za bolesti srca.
00:57
Heart disease used to be the biggest killer,
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Srčane bolesti su nekada bile najveći uzročnik smrti
00:59
particularly for men in their 40s.
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pogotovo za muškarce u 40-im godinama starosti.
01:01
Today, we've seen a 63-percent reduction in mortality
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Danas smo svedoci 63-procentnom smanjenju smrtnosti
01:04
from heart disease --
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od srčanih bolesti -
01:06
remarkably, 1.1 million deaths averted every year.
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izvanredno, više od milion smrtnih slučajeva se izbegne svake godine.
01:11
AIDS, incredibly, has just been named,
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Neverovatno, SIDA je upravo prošlog meseca proglašena
01:14
in the past month, a chronic disease,
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hroničnom bolešću,
01:16
meaning that a 20-year-old who becomes infected with HIV
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što znači da se za dvadesetogodišnjaka zaraženog HIV-om
01:19
is expected not to live weeks, months, or a couple of years,
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očekivalo da neće živeti nedeljama, mesecima, godinama
01:23
as we said only a decade ago,
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kako smo govorili pre samo 10 godina,
01:25
but is thought to live decades,
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već da će živeti decenijama
01:28
probably to die in his '60s or '70s from other causes altogether.
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i da će verovatno umreti u starosti od 60 ili 70 godina od nečeg drugog.
01:32
These are just remarkable, remarkable changes
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To su zaista izuzetno značajne, izvanredne promene
01:35
in the outlook for some of the biggest killers.
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u prognozi kod nekih od najvećih uzročnika smrti.
01:38
And one in particular
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Posebno kod moždane kapi,
01:40
that you probably wouldn't know about, stroke,
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za koju možda ne znate
01:42
which has been, along with heart disease,
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da je bila jednako kao i srčane bolesti
01:44
one of the biggest killers in this country,
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jedan od najvećih uzročnika smrti u ovoj zemlji.
01:46
is a disease in which now we know
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To je bolest o kojoj sada znamo
01:48
that if you can get people into the emergency room
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da ako nastradalog možete da odvedete do hitne pomoći
01:50
within three hours of the onset,
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u roku od 3 sata od nastanka,
01:53
some 30 percent of them will be able to leave the hospital
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bolnicu će napustiti njih oko 30 procenata
01:55
without any disability whatsoever.
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bez bilo kakvog invaliditeta.
01:58
Remarkable stories,
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To su izvanredne priče,
02:01
good-news stories,
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dobre novosti,
02:03
all of which boil down to understanding
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koje dovode do razumevanja
02:06
something about the diseases that has allowed us
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nečega o bolestima što nam je omogućilo
02:09
to detect early and intervene early.
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da rano otkrivamo i da rano intervenišemo.
02:12
Early detection, early intervention,
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Rano otkrivanje, rana intervencija,
02:15
that's the story for these successes.
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to je priča o tim uspesima.
02:18
Unfortunately, the news is not all good.
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Nažalost, ta vest nije u svemu dobra.
02:20
Let's talk about one other story
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Pređimo na jednu drugu priču
02:23
which has to do with suicide.
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u vezi sa samoubistvima.
02:24
Now this is, of course, not a disease, per se.
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To, naravno, nije bolest sama po sebi.
02:27
It's a condition, or it's a situation
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To je stanje ili situacija
02:30
that leads to mortality.
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koja dovodi do smrti.
02:32
What you may not realize is just how prevalent it is.
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Ne znate možda koliko je raširena.
02:35
There are 38,000 suicides each year in the United States.
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U SAD je svake godine 38.000 samoubistava.
02:39
That means one about every 15 minutes.
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To znači jedno u približno svakih 15 minuta.
02:42
Third most common cause of death amongst people
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Treći najčešći uzrok smrti
02:45
between the ages of 15 and 25.
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u starosti između 15 i 25 godina.
02:48
It's kind of an extraordinary story when you realize
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To je neobična priča kada shvatite
02:50
that this is twice as common as homicide
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da je dvaput češća od ubistava
02:52
and actually more common as a source of death
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i u stvari, češći uzrok smrti
02:55
than traffic fatalities in this country.
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od saobraćajnih udesa, u ovoj zemlji.
02:58
Now, when we talk about suicide,
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Kada govorimo o samoubistvima,
03:01
there is also a medical contribution here,
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ovde postoji i doprinos medicine,
03:04
because 90 percent of suicides
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pošto je 90 procenata samoubistava
03:06
are related to a mental illness:
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vezano za mentalne bolesti:
03:08
depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia,
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depresiju, bipolarni poremećaj, šizofreniju, anoreksiju, graničnu ličnost.
03:11
anorexia, borderline personality. There's a long list
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Postoji dugačak spisak
03:14
of disorders that contribute,
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poremećaja koji tome doprinose
03:16
and as I mentioned before, often early in life.
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i kao što sam ranije spomenuo česta su u ranom životu.
03:20
But it's not just the mortality from these disorders.
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Ali kod tih poremećaja se ne radi samo o smrtnosti.
03:24
It's also morbidity.
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Radi se i o morbiditetu.
03:25
If you look at disability,
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Ako pogledate na invalidnost,
03:28
as measured by the World Health Organization
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koju meri Svetska zdravstvena organizacija,
03:30
with something they call the Disability Adjusted Life Years,
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s nečim što nazivaju DALY (Godine života podešene prema invalidnosti),
03:33
it's kind of a metric that nobody would think of
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to je vrsta mere o kojoj niko ne bi ni pomislio
03:35
except an economist,
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osim ekonomista,
03:37
except it's one way of trying to capture what is lost
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osim toga to je jedan način kojim se pokušava uloviti izgubljeno
03:40
in terms of disability from medical causes,
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zbog invalidnosti iz zdravstvenih razloga,
03:43
and as you can see, virtually 30 percent
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i kao što možete videti, skoro 30 procenata
03:46
of all disability from all medical causes
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od svih zdravstvenih invalidnosti
03:48
can be attributed to mental disorders,
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može se pripisati mentalnim poremećajima,
03:51
neuropsychiatric syndromes.
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neuropsihijatrijskim sindromima.
03:53
You're probably thinking that doesn't make any sense.
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Verovatno mislite da to nema nikakvog smisla.
03:56
I mean, cancer seems far more serious.
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Mislim, rak deluje mnogo ozbiljnije.
03:58
Heart disease seems far more serious.
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Bolesti srca deluju mnogo ozbiljnije.
04:01
But you can see actually they are further down this list,
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Ali one su zapravo niže na listi, kao što vidite,
04:04
and that's because we're talking here about disability.
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i to je zbog toga što ovde govorimo o invalidnosti.
04:07
What drives the disability for these disorders
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Šta je pokretač invalidnosti kod tih poremećaja
04:09
like schizophrenia and bipolar and depression?
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kao što su šizofrenija, bipolarni poremećaj i depresija?
04:13
Why are they number one here?
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Zašto su one ovde na prvom mestu?
04:16
Well, there are probably three reasons.
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Verovatno postoje tri razloga.
04:18
One is that they're highly prevalent.
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Jedan je da su veoma raširene.
04:20
About one in five people will suffer from one of these disorders
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Otprilike jedan od pet ljudi oboleće od jedne vrste tih poremećaja
04:23
in the course of their lifetime.
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u toku svog života.
04:26
A second, of course, is that, for some people,
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Drugo je, da neke ljude
04:28
these become truly disabling,
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to, naravno, zaista ohromi,
04:29
and it's about four to five percent, perhaps one in 20.
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što se dešava u 4-5 procenata, možda jednom u 20.
04:33
But what really drives these numbers, this high morbidity,
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Ali ono što zaista utiče na te brojke, na taj visok morbiditet
04:37
and to some extent the high mortality,
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i do neke mere visoku smrtnost
04:39
is the fact that these start very early in life.
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to je činjenica da one nastaju vrlo rano u životu.
04:43
Fifty percent will have onset by age 14,
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Kod polovine će se pojaviti do 14. godine,
04:46
75 percent by age 24,
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kod 75 procenata do 24. godine,
04:49
a picture that is very different than what one would see
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što daje sasvim drugačiju sliku od one koja se vidi
04:53
if you're talking about cancer or heart disease,
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ako je reč o raku ili o bolestima srca,
04:55
diabetes, hypertension -- most of the major illnesses
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dijabetesu, hipertenziji - od većine glavnih bolesti
04:59
that we think about as being sources of morbidity and mortality.
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za koje mislimo da su izvori morbiditeta i smrtnosti.
05:03
These are, indeed, the chronic disorders of young people.
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To su u stvari hronični poremećaji mladih ljudi.
05:09
Now, I started by telling you that there were some good-news stories.
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Obratio sam vam se sa rečima da imam neke dobre vesti.
05:12
This is obviously not one of them.
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Ovo očito nije jedna od njih.
05:13
This is the part of it that is perhaps most difficult,
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Ovaj deo je možda najteži
05:16
and in a sense this is a kind of confession for me.
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i na neki način je jedna vrsta ispovesti za mene.
05:19
My job is to actually make sure that we make progress
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Moj posao se sastoji iz toga da zapravo osiguramo napredak
05:24
on all of these disorders.
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kod svih tih poremećaja.
05:26
I work for the federal government.
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Ja radim za saveznu vladu.
05:28
Actually, I work for you. You pay my salary.
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Zapravo radim za vas, vi mi dajete platu.
05:30
And maybe at this point, when you know what I do,
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I možda ćete sada, kada znate šta radim
05:33
or maybe what I've failed to do,
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ili možda šta sam propustio da uradim,
05:35
you'll think that I probably ought to be fired,
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pomisliti da bi trebalo da me otpuste
05:37
and I could certainly understand that.
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i ja bih to sigurno mogao da razumem.
05:39
But what I want to suggest, and the reason I'm here
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Ali ono što želim da sugerišem i razlog zbog čega sam ovde,
05:41
is to tell you that I think we're about to be
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to je da vam kažem da mislim da smo skoro zašli
05:45
in a very different world as we think about these illnesses.
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u sasvim drugačiji svet ako razmišljamo o tim bolestima.
05:49
What I've been talking to you about so far is mental disorders,
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Ono o čemu sam vam do sada govorio su mentalni poremećaji,
05:52
diseases of the mind.
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bolesti uma.
05:54
That's actually becoming a rather unpopular term these days,
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To, zapravo postaje prilično nepopularan izraz ovih dana
05:58
and people feel that, for whatever reason,
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i ljudi osećaju, iz bilo kog razloga,
06:00
it's politically better to use the term behavioral disorders
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da je politički bolje da se koristi izraz poremećaji ponašanja
06:03
and to talk about these as disorders of behavior.
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i da se o tome govori kao o poremećajima u ponašanju.
06:07
Fair enough. They are disorders of behavior,
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Pošteno. To jesu poremećaji ponašanja
06:09
and they are disorders of the mind.
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i jesu poremećaji uma.
06:11
But what I want to suggest to you
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Ali ono što bih voleo da predložim
06:14
is that both of those terms,
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to je da su oba ova pojma,
06:15
which have been in play for a century or more,
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koja su u igri sto godina ili više,
06:18
are actually now impediments to progress,
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sada u stvari prepreke za ostvarivanje napretka,
06:21
that what we need conceptually to make progress here
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a napredak koji treba ovde idejno da napravimo
06:26
is to rethink these disorders as brain disorders.
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je da ponovno premislimo o tim poremećajima kao o moždanim poremećajima.
06:31
Now, for some of you, you're going to say,
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Neki od vas će sada reći:
06:33
"Oh my goodness, here we go again.
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"O bože, evo nas opet.
06:35
We're going to hear about a biochemical imbalance
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sada ćemo slušati o biohemijskoj neravnoteži
06:38
or we're going to hear about drugs
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ili ćemo slušati o lekovima
06:39
or we're going to hear about some very simplistic notion
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ili ćemo čuti vrlo uprošćenu misao
06:44
that will take our subjective experience
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koja će naše subjektivno iskustvo
06:47
and turn it into molecules, or maybe into some sort of
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pretvoriti u molekule ili možda u neke vrste
06:53
very flat, unidimensional understanding
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veoma jednostranog razumevanja
06:56
of what it is to have depression or schizophrenia.
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o tome šta to znači imati depresiju ili šizofreniju."
07:00
When we talk about the brain, it is anything but
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Kada govorimo o mozgu, to može biti sve drugo
07:05
unidimensional or simplistic or reductionistic.
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samo ne može biti jednostrano, ni uprošćeno, ni redukovano.
07:08
It depends, of course, on what scale
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Zavisi, naravno, na kom nivou
07:11
or what scope you want to think about,
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ili u kom obimu želite da razmišljate,
07:13
but this is an organ of surreal complexity,
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ali to je organ nadrealističke složenosti
07:20
and we are just beginning to understand
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i mi smo tek na početku razumevanja
07:23
how to even study it, whether you're thinking about
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čak i toga kako da ga proučavamo, da li kao
07:25
the 100 billion neurons that are in the cortex
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100 milijardi neurona smeštenih u korteksu
07:28
or the 100 trillion synapses
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ili 100 biliona sinapsi
07:30
that make up all the connections.
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koje čine sve spojeve.
07:32
We have just begun to try to figure out
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Tek smo započeli da odgonetamo
07:36
how do we take this very complex machine
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kako da se latimo ove veoma složene mašine
07:40
that does extraordinary kinds of information processing
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koja obrađuje informacije na izvanredne načine
07:42
and use our own minds to understand
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i koristi naše sopstvene umove da razume
07:45
this very complex brain that supports our own minds.
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taj zapleteni mozak koji je potpora našim sopstvenim mislima.
07:49
It's actually a kind of cruel trick of evolution
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To je zapravo vrsta okrutnog evolucijskog trika
07:51
that we simply don't have a brain
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da jednostavno nemamo mozak
07:55
that seems to be wired well enough to understand itself.
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koji bi bio dovoljno dobro spojen da bi se sam razumeo.
07:58
In a sense, it actually makes you feel that
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Na neki način vas on zapravo nagoni,
08:00
when you're in the safe zone of studying behavior or cognition,
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da, kada ste na sigurnom području proučavanja ponašanja ili saznanja,
08:03
something you can observe,
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nečega što možete da promatrate,
08:04
that in a way feels more simplistic and reductionistic
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da se to na neki način čini jednostavnijim i redukovanijim,
08:07
than trying to engage this very complex, mysterious organ
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nego pokušavanje da se bavite ovim veoma složenim, tajanstvenim organom
08:12
that we're beginning to try to understand.
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koji počinjemo da pokušavamo da razumemo.
08:15
Now, already in the case of the brain disorders
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Dakle, u slučaju moždanih poremećaja
08:18
that I've been talking to you about,
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o kojima sam vam već pričao,
08:20
depression, obsessive compulsive disorder,
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depresiji, opsesivno kompulsivnom poremećaju,
08:22
post-traumatic stress disorder,
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posttraumatskom stresnom poremećaju,
08:25
while we don't have an in-depth understanding
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iako nemamo produbljeno, suštinsko razumevanje
08:27
of how they are abnormally processed
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kako se oni nenormalno obrađuju
08:31
or what the brain is doing in these illnesses,
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ili šta mozak radi kod tih bolesti,
08:33
we have been able to already identify
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uspeli smo već da identifikujemo
08:36
some of the connectional differences, or some of the ways
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neke razlike u spojevima ili neke načine
08:39
in which the circuitry is different
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na koje su tokovi različiti
08:41
for people who have these disorders.
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kod ljudi s tim poremećajima.
08:43
We call this the human connectome,
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Mi to nazivamo ljudski konektom
08:45
and you can think about the connectome
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i možete ga zamisliti
08:47
sort of as the wiring diagram of the brain.
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kao neku vrstu šeme za povezivanje mozga.
08:49
You'll hear more about this in a few minutes.
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Čućete više o tome za nekoliko minuta.
08:51
The important piece here is that as you begin to look
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Ovde je važan deo da kada počnete da posmatrate
08:54
at people who have these disorders, the one in five of us
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ljude s ovim poremećajima, jednog od nas petoro
08:58
who struggle in some way,
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koji se na neki način bori,
09:00
you find that there's a lot of variation
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otkrivate da postoje mnoge varijacije
09:02
in the way that the brain is wired,
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u načinu na koji je mozak povezan,
09:06
but there are some predictable patterns, and those patterns
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ali da postoje i predvidljivi uzorci i oni
09:08
are risk factors for developing one of these disorders.
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faktori rizika za razvoj jednog od ovih poremećaja.
09:12
It's a little different than the way we think about brain disorders
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To je malo drugačije od načina mišljenja o poremećajima mozga
09:15
like Huntington's or Parkinson's or Alzheimer's disease
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kao što su Hantingtonova ili Parkinsonova ili Alchajmerova bolest
09:18
where you have a bombed-out part of your cortex.
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gde imate porušeni deo vaše moždane kore.
09:20
Here we're talking about traffic jams, or sometimes detours,
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Ovde je reč o zastoju u saobraćaju ili ponekad o zaobilaznicama
09:23
or sometimes problems with just the way that things are connected
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ili je ponekad problem samo u načinu kako su stvari povezane
09:26
and the way that the brain functions.
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i načinu na koji mozak funkcioniše.
09:27
You could, if you want, compare this to,
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Mogli biste to uporediti, ako želite,
09:31
on the one hand, a myocardial infarction, a heart attack,
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s infarktom miokarda, srčanim udarom, na jednoj strani,
09:34
where you have dead tissue in the heart,
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gde imate odumrlo tkivo u srcu,
09:35
versus an arrhythmia, where the organ simply isn't functioning
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naspram aritmije, gde organ jednostavno ne funkcioniše
09:39
because of the communication problems within it.
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zbog unutrašnjih komunikacijskih problema.
09:41
Either one would kill you; in only one of them
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U oba slučaja biste mogli umreti; a samo u jednom od njih
09:43
will you find a major lesion.
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naći ćete veliko oštećenje.
09:46
As we think about this, probably it's better to actually go
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Kada razmišljamo o tome, možda je bolje da se, u stvari,
09:49
a little deeper into one particular disorder, and that would be schizophrenia,
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malo udubimo u jedan određeni poremećaj, u šizofreniju,
09:52
because I think that's a good case
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jer mislim da je to dobar primer koji doprinosi razumevanju
09:54
for helping to understand why thinking of this as a brain disorder matters.
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zašto je bitno da se razmišlja o tome kao o moždanom poremećaju.
09:58
These are scans from Judy Rapoport and her colleagues
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Ovo su snimci skenera Džudi Rapoport i njenih kolega
10:02
at the National Institute of Mental Health
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na Nacionalnom institutu za mentalno zdravlje
10:04
in which they studied children with very early onset schizophrenia,
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na kojima su proučavali decu s veoma ranom pojavom šizofrenije,
10:07
and you can see already in the top
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i već možete videti u gornjem delu
10:09
there's areas that are red or orange, yellow,
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područja koja su crvena ili narandžasta, žuta,
10:11
are places where there's less gray matter,
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to su mesta u kojima je manje sivih ćelija,
10:14
and as they followed them over five years,
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i kako su ih pratili u periodu od 5 godina,
10:15
comparing them to age match controls,
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upoređivali ih s odgovarajućim kontrolnim starosnim uzorcima,
10:17
you can see that, particularly in areas like
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10:19
the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex
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možete videti da posebno u predelima
kao što je dorzolateralni prefrontalni deo korteksa
10:21
or the superior temporal gyrus, there's a profound loss of gray matter.
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ili superiorni temporalni girus postoji temeljan gubitak sivih ćelija.
10:26
And it's important, if you try to model this,
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I to je važno, ako pokušate da ovo modelirate,
10:27
you can think about normal development
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10:29
as a loss of cortical mass, loss of cortical gray matter,
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možete da razmišljate o normalnom razvoju
kao o procesu u kome se gubi masa moždane kore, sive ćelije korteksa,
10:33
and what's happening in schizophrenia is that you overshoot that mark,
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i šta se dešava kod šizofrenije je to da preskačete normalne granice
10:36
and at some point, when you overshoot,
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i u nekoj tački, kada preskočite
10:38
you cross a threshold, and it's that threshold
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prelazite prag, a prag je taj
10:41
where we say, this is a person who has this disease,
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gde kažemo, ovo je osoba koja ima tu bolest,
10:44
because they have the behavioral symptoms
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zato što oni imaju simptome u ponašanju,
10:47
of hallucinations and delusions.
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halucinacije i privide.
10:49
That's something we can observe.
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To je nešto što možemo promatrati.
10:50
But look at this closely and you can see that actually they've crossed a different threshold.
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Ako pogledate izbliza i možete videti da su zapravo prešli različite pragove.
10:56
They've crossed a brain threshold much earlier,
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Oni su prešli moždani prag mnogo ranije
10:59
that perhaps not at age 22 or 20,
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možda ne u starosti od 22 ili 20 godina
11:02
but even by age 15 or 16 you can begin to see
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nego već u starosti od 15 ili 16 počinjete da uočavate
11:05
the trajectory for development is quite different
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da je razvojna putanja sasvim različita
11:07
at the level of the brain, not at the level of behavior.
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na nivou mozga, ali ne i na nivou ponašanja.
11:11
Why does this matter? Well first because,
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Zbog čega je to važno?
Prvo zbog toga što, kod moždanih poremećaja,
11:13
for brain disorders, behavior is the last thing to change.
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ponašanje je poslednja stvar koja se promeni.
11:16
We know that for Alzheimer's, for Parkinson's, for Huntington's.
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Mi to znamo za Alchajmerovu, Parkinsonovu, Hantingtonovu bolest.
11:19
There are changes in the brain a decade or more
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Promene u mozgu postoje deceniju ili više
11:21
before you see the first signs of a behavioral change.
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pre nego što se primete prvi znaci promena u ponašanju.
11:26
The tools that we have now allow us to detect
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Instrumenti koje sada imamo dozvoljavaju nam da otkrijemo
11:29
these brain changes much earlier, long before the symptoms emerge.
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ove moždane promene mnogo ranije, mnogo pre nego što se simptomi pojave.
11:34
But most important, go back to where we started.
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Ali, za ono što je najvažnije, vratimo se na početak.
11:37
The good-news stories in medicine
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Dobre vesti iz medicine
11:40
are early detection, early intervention.
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su rana otkrića, rane intervencije.
11:43
If we waited until the heart attack,
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Da smo čekali do srčanog udara,
11:47
we would be sacrificing 1.1 million lives
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svake godine bi u ovoj zemlji stradalo
11:51
every year in this country to heart disease.
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više od milion života od bolesti srca.
11:53
That is precisely what we do today
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To je tačno to što radimo danas
11:56
when we decide that everybody with one of these brain disorders,
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kada se odlučujemo da svaki oboleli od jednog od tih moždanih poremećaja,
12:00
brain circuit disorders, has a behavioral disorder.
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poremećaja moždanog toka, ima poremećaj ponašanja.
12:03
We wait until the behavior becomes manifest.
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Mi čekamo dok se ponašanje ne ispolji.
12:06
That's not early detection. That's not early intervention.
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To nije rano otkrivanje. To nije rana intervencija.
12:11
Now to be clear, we're not quite ready to do this.
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Sada da razjasnim, mi još nismo sasvim spremni da to radimo.
12:13
We don't have all the facts. We don't actually even know
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Nemamo sve činjenice.
Zapravo još ne znamo ni kakvi će biti instrumenti,
12:16
what the tools will be,
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12:19
nor what to precisely look for in every case to be able
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niti tačno šta da tražimo u svakom primeru da bismo mogli
12:23
to get there before the behavior emerges as different.
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dopreti tamo pre nego što se pojave promene u ponašanju.
12:27
But this tells us how we need to think about it,
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Ali ovo nam govori koliko je nužno da o tome razmišljamo
12:30
and where we need to go.
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i gde treba da idemo.
12:31
Are we going to be there soon?
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Da li ćemo uskoro u tome biti?
12:33
I think that this is something that will happen
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Mislim da je to nešto što će se dogoditi
12:35
over the course of the next few years, but I'd like to finish
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za sledećih par godina, ali bih voleo da završim
12:38
with a quote about trying to predict how this will happen
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citatom o pokušaju predviđanja kako će se to dogoditi,
12:41
by somebody who's thought a lot about changes
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nekoga ko je mnogo razmišljao
12:43
in concepts and changes in technology.
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o idejnim i tehnološkim promenama:
12:45
"We always overestimate the change that will occur
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"Mi uvek precenjujemo promene koje će se dogoditi
12:48
in the next two years and underestimate
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u sledeće dve godine i potcenjujemo
12:50
the change that will occur in the next 10." -- Bill Gates.
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promene koje će se dogoditi u sledećih 10." - Bil Gejts
12:54
Thanks very much.
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Mnogo vam hvala.
12:55
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
About this website

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