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Translator: Joseph Geni
Reviewer: Thu-Huong Ha
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譯者: illusion Hung
審譯者: Dat Tran
00:12
So let's start with some good news,
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讓我們用一些好消息來開始
00:15
and the good news has to do with what do we know
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這些好消息是我們
00:17
based on biomedical research
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基於在生物醫學研究裏
00:20
that actually has changed the outcomes
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一些確實改變了許多嚴重疾病的
00:23
for many very serious diseases?
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成果所得的資訊有關
00:26
Let's start with leukemia,
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我們從白血病談起
00:28
acute lymphoblastic leukemia, ALL,
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急性淋巴性白血病,簡稱ALL
00:31
the most common cancer of children.
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最常見的兒童癌症
00:33
When I was a student,
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在我學生時期
00:35
the mortality rate was about 95 percent.
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其死亡率約為 95%
00:39
Today, some 25, 30 years later, we're talking about
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25,30年後的今天
00:42
a mortality rate that's reduced by 85 percent.
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其死亡率已下降 85%
00:46
Six thousand children each year
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每年有6000名
00:49
who would have previously died of this disease are cured.
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過去將死於這種疾病的兒童獲得治癒
00:53
If you want the really big numbers,
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如果你想看到更顯著的進展
00:55
look at these numbers for heart disease.
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請看這些心臟病統計數據
00:57
Heart disease used to be the biggest killer,
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心臟病曾經是健康的頭號殺手
00:59
particularly for men in their 40s.
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尤其對40多歲的男性而言
01:01
Today, we've seen a 63-percent reduction in mortality
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今天,我們發現心臟病死亡率
01:04
from heart disease --
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已下降 63%
01:06
remarkably, 1.1 million deaths averted every year.
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每年死亡人數減少110萬,一個值得注意的數字
01:11
AIDS, incredibly, has just been named,
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上個月,愛滋病,難以置信的
01:14
in the past month, a chronic disease,
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被歸類為慢性疾病
01:16
meaning that a 20-year-old who becomes infected with HIV
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意味著遭受愛滋病毒感染的一個20歲年輕人
01:19
is expected not to live weeks, months, or a couple of years,
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將不僅存活幾星期,幾個月或幾年
01:23
as we said only a decade ago,
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如我們十年前所預期的
01:25
but is thought to live decades,
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而有機會存活數十年
01:28
probably to die in his '60s or '70s from other causes altogether.
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或許在60或70歲死於其他成因
01:32
These are just remarkable, remarkable changes
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這是相當驚人的改善
01:35
in the outlook for some of the biggest killers.
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對一些致命疾病的前景而言
01:38
And one in particular
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尤其是其中一種
01:40
that you probably wouldn't know about, stroke,
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你或許不知道-中風
01:42
which has been, along with heart disease,
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它通常伴隨心臟病
01:44
one of the biggest killers in this country,
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是我國死亡率最高的疾病之一
01:46
is a disease in which now we know
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現在我們知道,以這種疾病來說
01:48
that if you can get people into the emergency room
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如果能及時將病患者送入急診室
01:50
within three hours of the onset,
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在發病三小時內
01:53
some 30 percent of them will be able to leave the hospital
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約 30%的 病患者能平安出院
01:55
without any disability whatsoever.
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沒有任何後遺症
01:58
Remarkable stories,
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令人驚嘆的故事
02:01
good-news stories,
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人類的福音
02:03
all of which boil down to understanding
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這一切的結果是
02:06
something about the diseases that has allowed us
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瞭解某些關於疾病的資訊,使我們能
02:09
to detect early and intervene early.
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早期發現、早期處理
02:12
Early detection, early intervention,
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早期發現、早期處理
02:15
that's the story for these successes.
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這是人類對抗疾病的勝利史
02:18
Unfortunately, the news is not all good.
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不幸的是,並非全都是好消息
02:20
Let's talk about one other story
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我們談談另一個故事
02:23
which has to do with suicide.
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和自殺有關
02:24
Now this is, of course, not a disease, per se.
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這個,當然,本身並非疾病
02:27
It's a condition, or it's a situation
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而是導致死亡的
02:30
that leads to mortality.
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條件或情況
02:32
What you may not realize is just how prevalent it is.
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你或許不知道這種情形多麼普遍
02:35
There are 38,000 suicides each year in the United States.
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美國每年有38,000人自殺
02:39
That means one about every 15 minutes.
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意味著大約每15分鐘一位
02:42
Third most common cause of death amongst people
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它是15至25歲年齡層中
02:45
between the ages of 15 and 25.
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第三大死亡原因
02:48
It's kind of an extraordinary story when you realize
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這是令人震驚的故事,當你瞭解
02:50
that this is twice as common as homicide
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因此死亡的人數為謀殺的兩倍
02:52
and actually more common as a source of death
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事實上,以我國來說
02:55
than traffic fatalities in this country.
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這是比交通事故更常見的死因
02:58
Now, when we talk about suicide,
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現在,當我們談到自殺
03:01
there is also a medical contribution here,
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醫學上對這方面的研究亦有貢獻
03:04
because 90 percent of suicides
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因為 90% 的自殺
03:06
are related to a mental illness:
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是與精神疾病有關
03:08
depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia,
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憂鬱症、躁鬱症、精神分裂症
03:11
anorexia, borderline personality. There's a long list
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厭食症、邊緣型人格
03:14
of disorders that contribute,
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許多精神疾病與此有關
03:16
and as I mentioned before, often early in life.
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如我之前提過的
這些疾病往往發生於人生早期
03:20
But it's not just the mortality from these disorders.
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但自殺不僅與這些疾病的死亡率有關
03:24
It's also morbidity.
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也與其發病率有關
03:25
If you look at disability,
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如果觀察致殘程度
03:28
as measured by the World Health Organization
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根據世界衛生組織
03:30
with something they call the Disability Adjusted Life Years,
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以所謂的「傷殘調整生命年」所做的衡量
03:33
it's kind of a metric that nobody would think of
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沒人想到它會成為一種度量單位
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except an economist,
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除了經濟學家
03:37
except it's one way of trying to capture what is lost
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它是一種估算健康壽命損失的方法
03:40
in terms of disability from medical causes,
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藉由醫學因素導致的失能
03:43
and as you can see, virtually 30 percent
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如各位所見
03:46
of all disability from all medical causes
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在所有醫學因素導致的失能中,約30%
03:48
can be attributed to mental disorders,
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歸因於精神障礙
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neuropsychiatric syndromes.
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精神症狀
03:53
You're probably thinking that doesn't make any sense.
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你或許認為這並不合理
03:56
I mean, cancer seems far more serious.
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我的意思是,癌症似乎更加嚴重
03:58
Heart disease seems far more serious.
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心臟病似乎更加嚴重
04:01
But you can see actually they are further down this list,
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但各位可以看見
事實上它們位於這張列表下方
04:04
and that's because we're talking here about disability.
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因為我們所討論的是失能
04:07
What drives the disability for these disorders
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導致這些疾病產生失能情況的原因是什麽?
04:09
like schizophrenia and bipolar and depression?
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例如精神分裂症、躁鬱症和憂鬱症?
04:13
Why are they number one here?
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為何它們在這張列表中獨占鰲頭?
04:16
Well, there are probably three reasons.
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有三個可能原因
04:18
One is that they're highly prevalent.
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第一,這些疾病非常普遍
04:20
About one in five people will suffer from one of these disorders
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大約五分之一的人將罹患其中一種
04:23
in the course of their lifetime.
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在人生過程中
04:26
A second, of course, is that, for some people,
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第二,當然,對某些人來說
04:28
these become truly disabling,
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這會造成真正的失能
04:29
and it's about four to five percent, perhaps one in 20.
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比例約為4%~5%,或許20人中即有1人
04:33
But what really drives these numbers, this high morbidity,
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但真正造成這些數據、這種高罹患率
04:37
and to some extent the high mortality,
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以某種程度來說亦是高死亡率的原因
04:39
is the fact that these start very early in life.
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是在於這些疾病發生於人生早期
04:43
Fifty percent will have onset by age 14,
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50% 病患將在14歲前發病
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75 percent by age 24,
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75% 病患將在24歲前發病
04:49
a picture that is very different than what one would see
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這是截然不同的情形
04:53
if you're talking about cancer or heart disease,
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相較於癌症或心臟病
04:55
diabetes, hypertension -- most of the major illnesses
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糖尿病、高血壓等大多數主要疾病
04:59
that we think about as being sources of morbidity and mortality.
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即我們一般認為的罹病和死亡原因
05:03
These are, indeed, the chronic disorders of young people.
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這確實是屬於年輕人的慢性病
05:09
Now, I started by telling you that there were some good-news stories.
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現在,我以一些好消息作開場白
05:12
This is obviously not one of them.
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顯然這並非其中之一
05:13
This is the part of it that is perhaps most difficult,
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這或許是其中最難以啟齒的部分
05:16
and in a sense this is a kind of confession for me.
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以某種意義來說,這算是我的告解
05:19
My job is to actually make sure that we make progress
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我的工作是確保在這所有疾病上
05:24
on all of these disorders.
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取得進展
05:26
I work for the federal government.
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我為聯邦政府工作
05:28
Actually, I work for you. You pay my salary.
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事實上是為你們工作,你們付我薪水
05:30
And maybe at this point, when you know what I do,
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或許以這點來說,當你們知道我所做的事
05:33
or maybe what I've failed to do,
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或我無法做到的事之後
05:35
you'll think that I probably ought to be fired,
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你們會認為我應該被解僱
05:37
and I could certainly understand that.
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我當然明白這一點
05:39
But what I want to suggest, and the reason I'm here
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但我想提出的建議
和我來在這裡的原因是
05:41
is to tell you that I think we're about to be
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告訴你們,我認為我們應該以
05:45
in a very different world as we think about these illnesses.
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截然不同的觀點看待這些疾病
05:49
What I've been talking to you about so far is mental disorders,
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到目前為止
我一直使用精神障礙這個詞彙
05:52
diseases of the mind.
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精神方面的疾病
05:54
That's actually becoming a rather unpopular term these days,
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事實上,現今
這已成為一個相當不受歡迎詞彙
05:58
and people feel that, for whatever reason,
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人們認為-無論出於何種原因
06:00
it's politically better to use the term behavioral disorders
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原則上最好使用行為障礙這個詞彙
06:03
and to talk about these as disorders of behavior.
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稱這些疾病為行為障礙
06:07
Fair enough. They are disorders of behavior,
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確實,它們屬於行為障礙
06:09
and they are disorders of the mind.
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亦屬於精神障礙
06:11
But what I want to suggest to you
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但我想提出的建議是
06:14
is that both of those terms,
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這兩個詞彙
06:15
which have been in play for a century or more,
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使用超過一世紀的詞彙
06:18
are actually now impediments to progress,
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事實上阻礙了進展
06:21
that what we need conceptually to make progress here
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我們必須在觀念上取得的進展是
06:26
is to rethink these disorders as brain disorders.
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將這些疾病歸類為腦部障礙
06:31
Now, for some of you, you're going to say,
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現在,有些人會說
06:33
"Oh my goodness, here we go again.
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「天哪,又來了」
06:35
We're going to hear about a biochemical imbalance
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「我們將聽到關於生化失衡」
06:38
or we're going to hear about drugs
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「或關於藥物的知識」
06:39
or we're going to hear about some very simplistic notion
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「或聽到一些過度簡化的觀念」
06:44
that will take our subjective experience
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「將我們的主觀經驗」
06:47
and turn it into molecules, or maybe into some sort of
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「轉變成分子層面的理解,或某種」
06:53
very flat, unidimensional understanding
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「單純而簡要的概念」
06:56
of what it is to have depression or schizophrenia.
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「說明它與憂鬱症或精神分裂症的關係」
07:00
When we talk about the brain, it is anything but
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當我們談到大腦時,絕非
07:05
unidimensional or simplistic or reductionistic.
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單純、簡要或可簡化的概念
07:08
It depends, of course, on what scale
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當然,這取決於
07:11
or what scope you want to think about,
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你打算以何種層面或範圍思考
07:13
but this is an organ of surreal complexity,
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但大腦是一個相當複雜的器官
07:20
and we are just beginning to understand
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我們才剛開始瞭解
07:23
how to even study it, whether you're thinking about
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如何去研究它,無論你考量的是
07:25
the 100 billion neurons that are in the cortex
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皮層中上百億個神經元
07:28
or the 100 trillion synapses
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或上千億個
07:30
that make up all the connections.
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連接神經元的突觸
07:32
We have just begun to try to figure out
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我們才剛開始試著瞭解
07:36
how do we take this very complex machine
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如何研究這個複雜至極的機器
07:40
that does extraordinary kinds of information processing
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它能進行驚人的訊息處理程序
07:42
and use our own minds to understand
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用我們本身的大腦理解
07:45
this very complex brain that supports our own minds.
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這個掌控人類心智、複雜至極的大腦
07:49
It's actually a kind of cruel trick of evolution
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這可說是演化的殘酷把戲
07:51
that we simply don't have a brain
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我們並未擁有
07:55
that seems to be wired well enough to understand itself.
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聰明到足以理解它本身的大腦
07:58
In a sense, it actually makes you feel that
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以某種程度來說,它確實使你感到
08:00
when you're in the safe zone of studying behavior or cognition,
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當你處於學習行為或認知的安全區域時
08:03
something you can observe,
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你可觀察到某些東西
08:04
that in a way feels more simplistic and reductionistic
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以某種較為單純和直接的方式感受
08:07
than trying to engage this very complex, mysterious organ
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而非試著參與這個
複雜而神秘至極的器官運作
08:12
that we're beginning to try to understand.
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我們正開始試著瞭解它
08:15
Now, already in the case of the brain disorders
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現在,以腦部障礙為例
08:18
that I've been talking to you about,
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如演講中提及的
08:20
depression, obsessive compulsive disorder,
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憂鬱症、強迫症
08:22
post-traumatic stress disorder,
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創傷後壓力症候群
08:25
while we don't have an in-depth understanding
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我們尚無法深入瞭解
08:27
of how they are abnormally processed
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其運作的異常之處
08:31
or what the brain is doing in these illnesses,
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或大腦和這些疾病的關係
08:33
we have been able to already identify
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我們已能確定
08:36
some of the connectional differences, or some of the ways
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一些連接上的差異,或某些
08:39
in which the circuitry is different
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通訊線路上的差異
08:41
for people who have these disorders.
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對罹患這些疾病的人來說
08:43
We call this the human connectome,
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我們稱之為人類連接組
08:45
and you can think about the connectome
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你可以將連接組想成
08:47
sort of as the wiring diagram of the brain.
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類似大腦接線圖
08:49
You'll hear more about this in a few minutes.
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你將在幾分鐘內聽見更多相關敘述
08:51
The important piece here is that as you begin to look
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其中一個重要關鍵是,當你開始觀察
08:54
at people who have these disorders, the one in five of us
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罹患這些疾病的人,我們當中的五分之一
08:58
who struggle in some way,
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以某種程度來說正與其抗爭
09:00
you find that there's a lot of variation
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你將發現其中存在許多變化
09:02
in the way that the brain is wired,
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以大腦接線方式而言
09:06
but there are some predictable patterns, and those patterns
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但其中存在一些可預測的模式,這些模式
09:08
are risk factors for developing one of these disorders.
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對這些疾病的發展來說是危險因素
09:12
It's a little different than the way we think about brain disorders
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這與我們對腦部障礙的認知稍有不同
09:15
like Huntington's or Parkinson's or Alzheimer's disease
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例如亨丁頓氏症
帕金森氏症或阿爾海默症
09:18
where you have a bombed-out part of your cortex.
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其原因在於大腦皮層某部分受到損害
09:20
Here we're talking about traffic jams, or sometimes detours,
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我們所談論的是
線路阻塞,有時是繞道而行
09:23
or sometimes problems with just the way that things are connected
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有時問題僅在於線路連接方式
09:26
and the way that the brain functions.
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及大腦運作方式
09:27
You could, if you want, compare this to,
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如果有興趣,你可以將它與
09:31
on the one hand, a myocardial infarction, a heart attack,
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心肌梗塞、心臟病發作比較
09:34
where you have dead tissue in the heart,
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其原因在於心臟組織壞死
09:35
versus an arrhythmia, where the organ simply isn't functioning
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想比與心律不整,器官無法正常運作
09:39
because of the communication problems within it.
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因為其中存在通訊問題
09:41
Either one would kill you; in only one of them
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兩者均足以致命
但你僅能在其中一種當中
09:43
will you find a major lesion.
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發現主要病變
09:46
As we think about this, probably it's better to actually go
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當我們思考這一點時,或許最好
09:49
a little deeper into one particular disorder, and that would be schizophrenia,
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稍微深入探討
某種特定疾病,即精神分裂症
09:52
because I think that's a good case
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因為我認為這是很好的例子
09:54
for helping to understand why thinking of this as a brain disorder matters.
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有助於理解為何可將其視為一種腦部障礙
09:58
These are scans from Judy Rapoport and her colleagues
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這是 Judy Rapoport 和她同事所做的掃描圖
10:02
at the National Institute of Mental Health
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來自美國國家心理衛生研究院
10:04
in which they studied children with very early onset schizophrenia,
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他們研究罹患早發性精神分裂症的兒童
10:07
and you can see already in the top
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你可以看見上方圖片中
10:09
there's areas that are red or orange, yellow,
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已出現紅色、橙色或黃色區域
10:11
are places where there's less gray matter,
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這是灰質較少的地方
10:14
and as they followed them over five years,
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他們追蹤這些兒童五年
10:15
comparing them to age match controls,
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將他們與同齡的控制組比較
10:17
you can see that, particularly in areas like
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你可以看見
尤其在這些區域當中,例如
10:19
the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex
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前額葉皮質
10:21
or the superior temporal gyrus, there's a profound loss of gray matter.
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或顳葉顳上回,存在嚴重的灰質喪失情況
10:26
And it's important, if you try to model this,
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這十分重要,如果你試著將其模式化
10:27
you can think about normal development
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你可將正常發展視為
10:29
as a loss of cortical mass, loss of cortical gray matter,
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皮質喪失、灰質喪失的過程
10:33
and what's happening in schizophrenia is that you overshoot that mark,
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精神分裂症的情況則是超越這個標度
10:36
and at some point, when you overshoot,
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在某個時刻,當超越這個標度時
10:38
you cross a threshold, and it's that threshold
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相當於跨越一個門檻,而這個門檻
10:41
where we say, this is a person who has this disease,
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即是我們對這些精神分裂症患者的定義
10:44
because they have the behavioral symptoms
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因為他們開始出現行為症狀
10:47
of hallucinations and delusions.
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例如幻覺和妄想
10:49
That's something we can observe.
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這是我們可觀察到的部分
10:50
But look at this closely and you can see that actually they've crossed a different threshold.
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但仔細觀察這張圖,你可以看見
事實上他們跨越了另一道門檻
10:56
They've crossed a brain threshold much earlier,
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他們在相當早期即跨越大腦的門檻
10:59
that perhaps not at age 22 or 20,
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也許不是在22或20歲
11:02
but even by age 15 or 16 you can begin to see
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而是在15或16歲,你可以開始看見
11:05
the trajectory for development is quite different
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其發展軌跡截然不同
11:07
at the level of the brain, not at the level of behavior.
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以大腦層面而言,而非行為層面
11:11
Why does this matter? Well first because,
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為何這十分重要?好,主要原因是
11:13
for brain disorders, behavior is the last thing to change.
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對腦部障礙來說
行為是最後發生改變的部分
11:16
We know that for Alzheimer's, for Parkinson's, for Huntington's.
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我們知道阿茲海默症
帕金森氏症、亨丁頓症皆是如此
11:19
There are changes in the brain a decade or more
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大腦發生變化十年或更長時間後
11:21
before you see the first signs of a behavioral change.
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才能看見行為改變的最初跡象
11:26
The tools that we have now allow us to detect
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目前的工具可使我們早期檢測
11:29
these brain changes much earlier, long before the symptoms emerge.
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這些腦部的變化,遠早於症狀的出現
11:34
But most important, go back to where we started.
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但最重要的是,回到演講開頭部分
11:37
The good-news stories in medicine
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醫學上的福音是
11:40
are early detection, early intervention.
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早期發現、早期處理
11:43
If we waited until the heart attack,
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如果等到心臟病發作
11:47
we would be sacrificing 1.1 million lives
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我國每年將因心臟病
11:51
every year in this country to heart disease.
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損失110萬人的生命
11:53
That is precisely what we do today
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這正是我們目前的處境
11:56
when we decide that everybody with one of these brain disorders,
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當我們確定每位擁有其中一種腦部障礙
12:00
brain circuit disorders, has a behavioral disorder.
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大腦線路異常的病患
都將發生行為障礙時
12:03
We wait until the behavior becomes manifest.
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卻等到行為發生變化才著手處理
12:06
That's not early detection. That's not early intervention.
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這並非早期發現、早期處理
12:11
Now to be clear, we're not quite ready to do this.
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坦白說,我們尚未準備好進行這件事
12:13
We don't have all the facts. We don't actually even know
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我們還不明白所有事實
事實上我們甚至不知道
12:16
what the tools will be,
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可使用什麼工具
12:19
nor what to precisely look for in every case to be able
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或如何精確檢測所有病例
12:23
to get there before the behavior emerges as different.
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在行為發生改變前先行處理
12:27
But this tells us how we need to think about it,
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但這讓我們明白
思索這一點的必要性
12:30
and where we need to go.
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及需要努力的方向
12:31
Are we going to be there soon?
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我們是否很快就能達成目標?
12:33
I think that this is something that will happen
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我認為將會有所進展
12:35
over the course of the next few years, but I'd like to finish
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在未來幾年內,但我想
12:38
with a quote about trying to predict how this will happen
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引用一句話作結語
試著預測未來發展的情形
12:41
by somebody who's thought a lot about changes
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這句話來自某位
12:43
in concepts and changes in technology.
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對觀念和科技變化擁有精闢見解的人
12:45
"We always overestimate the change that will occur
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「我們總是高估」
12:48
in the next two years and underestimate
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「未來兩年將發生的變化,低估」
12:50
the change that will occur in the next 10." -- Bill Gates.
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「未來十年將發生的變化」-比爾‧蓋茲
12:54
Thanks very much.
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十分感謝
12:55
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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