Thomas Insel: Toward a new understanding of mental illness

194,382 views ・ 2013-04-16

TED


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00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Thu-Huong Ha
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Prevoditelj: Senzos Osijek Recezent: Mladen Barešić
00:12
So let's start with some good news,
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Počnimo s dobrim vijestima...
00:15
and the good news has to do with what do we know
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Dobra vijest ima veze s time što,
00:17
based on biomedical research
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na temelju biomedicinskih istraživanja,
00:20
that actually has changed the outcomes
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znamo o onome što je promijenilo ishode
00:23
for many very serious diseases?
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mnogih ozbiljnih bolesti?
00:26
Let's start with leukemia,
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Počnimo s leukemijom...
00:28
acute lymphoblastic leukemia, ALL,
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Akutna limfoblastična leukemija, ALL,
00:31
the most common cancer of children.
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najčešći je rak u djece.
00:33
When I was a student,
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Kada sam bio student,
00:35
the mortality rate was about 95 percent.
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stupanj smrtnosti bio je oko 95%.
00:39
Today, some 25, 30 years later, we're talking about
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Danas, nekih 25-30 godina kasnije, govorimo o
00:42
a mortality rate that's reduced by 85 percent.
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stupnju smrtnosti koji je smanjen za 85%.
00:46
Six thousand children each year
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Svake se godine šest tisuća djece
00:49
who would have previously died of this disease are cured.
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koja bi prije umrla od ove bolesti - izliječi.
00:53
If you want the really big numbers,
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Ako želite stvarno velike brojeve,
00:55
look at these numbers for heart disease.
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pogledajte brojeve u vezi s bolestima srca.
00:57
Heart disease used to be the biggest killer,
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Srčane bolesti bile su najveći ubojica,
00:59
particularly for men in their 40s.
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posebno muškaraca u njihovim 40-ima.
01:01
Today, we've seen a 63-percent reduction in mortality
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Danas vidimo 63%-tno smanjenje smrtnosti
01:04
from heart disease --
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uslijed srčanih bolesti.
01:06
remarkably, 1.1 million deaths averted every year.
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Izvanredno! 1,1 milijun smrtnih slučajeva izbjegnutih svake godine.
01:11
AIDS, incredibly, has just been named,
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AIDS je, nevjerojatno, tek prošlog mjeseca
01:14
in the past month, a chronic disease,
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nazvan kroničnom bolesti,
01:16
meaning that a 20-year-old who becomes infected with HIV
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što znači da se ne očekuje da će 20-godišnjak koji se zarazi HIV-om
01:19
is expected not to live weeks, months, or a couple of years,
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živjeti tjednima, mjesecima ili par godina,
01:23
as we said only a decade ago,
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kao što smo rekli prije samo jednog desetljeća,
01:25
but is thought to live decades,
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već se pretpostavlja da će živjeti desetljećima
01:28
probably to die in his '60s or '70s from other causes altogether.
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te vjerojatno umrijeti u svojim 60-ima ili 70-ima iz posve drugih razloga.
01:32
These are just remarkable, remarkable changes
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To su jednostavno izvanredne, izvanredne promjene
01:35
in the outlook for some of the biggest killers.
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u izgledima u slučaju nekih od najvećih ubojica.
01:38
And one in particular
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A jedan poseban,
01:40
that you probably wouldn't know about, stroke,
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za kojeg vjerojatno ne znate - moždani udar -
01:42
which has been, along with heart disease,
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koji je, zajedno sa srčanim udarom,
01:44
one of the biggest killers in this country,
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jedan od najvećih ubojica u ovoj zemlji,
01:46
is a disease in which now we know
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bolest je za koju danas znamo da,
01:48
that if you can get people into the emergency room
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dovedete li osobu do hitne službe
01:50
within three hours of the onset,
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unutar tri sata od početka napada,
01:53
some 30 percent of them will be able to leave the hospital
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oko 30% njih moći će napustiti bolnicu
01:55
without any disability whatsoever.
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bez ikakvih posljedica.
01:58
Remarkable stories,
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Izvanredne priče,
02:01
good-news stories,
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one sa sretnim završecima,
02:03
all of which boil down to understanding
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sve se svode na razumijevanje
02:06
something about the diseases that has allowed us
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nečega o bolestima, što nam je omogućilo
02:09
to detect early and intervene early.
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njihovo ranije otkrivanje i ranije djelovanje.
02:12
Early detection, early intervention,
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Ranije otkrivanje, ranije djelovanje -
02:15
that's the story for these successes.
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to je bilanca ovih uspjeha.
02:18
Unfortunately, the news is not all good.
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Nažalost, vijesti nisu u potpunosti dobre.
02:20
Let's talk about one other story
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Porazgovarajmo o jednoj drugoj priči,
02:23
which has to do with suicide.
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onoj vezanoj uz samoubojstvo.
02:24
Now this is, of course, not a disease, per se.
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Ono, naravno, samo po sebi nije bolest.
02:27
It's a condition, or it's a situation
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To je stanje, ili situacija
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that leads to mortality.
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koja vodi k smrti.
02:32
What you may not realize is just how prevalent it is.
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Ono čega možda niste svjesni jest koliko su ona rasprostranjena.
02:35
There are 38,000 suicides each year in the United States.
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Svake se godine u SAD-u dogodi 38.000 samoubojstava.
02:39
That means one about every 15 minutes.
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Znači, jedno samoubojstvo svakih 15 minuta.
02:42
Third most common cause of death amongst people
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Treći najčešći uzrok smrti ljudi
02:45
between the ages of 15 and 25.
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u dobi od 15 do 25 godina.
02:48
It's kind of an extraordinary story when you realize
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Nevjerojatna je to priča kad shvatite
02:50
that this is twice as common as homicide
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da je to dvaput češće od ubojstva
02:52
and actually more common as a source of death
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i, zapravo, puno češći uzrok smrti
02:55
than traffic fatalities in this country.
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no što su to prometne nesreće u ovoj zemlji.
02:58
Now, when we talk about suicide,
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Kada govorimo o samoubojstvima,
03:01
there is also a medical contribution here,
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njima doprinose i medicinski razlozi,
03:04
because 90 percent of suicides
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jer 90% samoubojstava
03:06
are related to a mental illness:
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povezano je s duševnim bolestima:
03:08
depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia,
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depresijom, bipolarnim poremećajem, shizofrenijom,
03:11
anorexia, borderline personality. There's a long list
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anoreksijom, graničnim poremećajem osobnosti. Dug je popis
03:14
of disorders that contribute,
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poremećaja koji doprinose,
03:16
and as I mentioned before, often early in life.
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kao što sam ranije spomenuo, često i u mlađoj dobi.
03:20
But it's not just the mortality from these disorders.
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Ali, ne radi se samo o smrtnosti uslijed ovih poremećaja.
03:24
It's also morbidity.
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Radi se i o pobolijevanju.
03:25
If you look at disability,
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Razmotrimo invalidnost
03:28
as measured by the World Health Organization
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koju Svjetska zdravstvena organizacija mjeri
03:30
with something they call the Disability Adjusted Life Years,
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nečime što oni nazivaju "Stopom izgubljenih godina zdravoga života".
03:33
it's kind of a metric that nobody would think of
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To je vrsta mjerenja kakvog se nitko ne bi dosjetio
03:35
except an economist,
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osim ekonomista,
03:37
except it's one way of trying to capture what is lost
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samo što je ovo jedan od načina da se otkrije što je izgubljeno
03:40
in terms of disability from medical causes,
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u smislu medicinski uzrokovane invalidnosti.
03:43
and as you can see, virtually 30 percent
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Kao što vidite, gotovo 30%
03:46
of all disability from all medical causes
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svih invalidnosti uzrokovanih svim medicinskim uzrocima
03:48
can be attributed to mental disorders,
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može se pripisati psihičkim bolestima,
03:51
neuropsychiatric syndromes.
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neuropsihijatrijskim sindromima.
03:53
You're probably thinking that doesn't make any sense.
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Vjerojatno mislite kako to nema smisla.
03:56
I mean, cancer seems far more serious.
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Mislim, rak izgleda puno ozbiljnije...
03:58
Heart disease seems far more serious.
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Srčane bolesti čine se puno ozbiljnijima...
04:01
But you can see actually they are further down this list,
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No, možete vidjeti da su one niže na ovom popisu,
04:04
and that's because we're talking here about disability.
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što je razlog tome da ovdje govorimo o invaliditetima.
04:07
What drives the disability for these disorders
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Što je uzrok invaliditeta kod bolesti
04:09
like schizophrenia and bipolar and depression?
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poput shizofrenije, bipolarnosti i depresije?
04:13
Why are they number one here?
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Zašto su one prve na ovom popisu?
04:16
Well, there are probably three reasons.
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Vjerojatno postoje tri razloga...
04:18
One is that they're highly prevalent.
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Kao prvo, vrlo su raširene.
04:20
About one in five people will suffer from one of these disorders
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Otprilike svaka peta osoba bolovat će od jednog od ovih poremećaja
04:23
in the course of their lifetime.
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tijekom svog života.
04:26
A second, of course, is that, for some people,
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Drugi je razlog, naravno, taj što neke ljude
04:28
these become truly disabling,
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ove bolesti istinski onesposobljuju,
04:29
and it's about four to five percent, perhaps one in 20.
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i to iznosi oko 4-5%, možda 1 od 20.
04:33
But what really drives these numbers, this high morbidity,
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Međutim, ono što uistinu potiče ovakve razmjere, ovako visoko pobolijevanje,
04:37
and to some extent the high mortality,
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a donekle i visoku smrtnost,
04:39
is the fact that these start very early in life.
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činjenica je da se te bolesti očituju vrlo rano u životu.
04:43
Fifty percent will have onset by age 14,
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Bolest će se u 50% slučajeva pojaviti prije 14. godine,
04:46
75 percent by age 24,
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u 75% slučajeva prije 24. godine...
04:49
a picture that is very different than what one would see
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Poprilično različito od onoga što mislimo
04:53
if you're talking about cancer or heart disease,
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kada govorimo o raku ili o bolestima srca,
04:55
diabetes, hypertension -- most of the major illnesses
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o dijabetesu, visokom krvnom tlaku – o većini bolesti
04:59
that we think about as being sources of morbidity and mortality.
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koje smatramo glavnim izvorima pobolijevanja i smrtnosti.
05:03
These are, indeed, the chronic disorders of young people.
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One su doista kronični poremećaji u mladih ljudi.
05:09
Now, I started by telling you that there were some good-news stories.
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Započeo sam rekavši vam da postoje dobre vijesti.
05:12
This is obviously not one of them.
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Ovo očito nije jedna od njih.
05:13
This is the part of it that is perhaps most difficult,
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Ovo je možda najteži dio,
05:16
and in a sense this is a kind of confession for me.
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i, na neki način, moje priznanje.
05:19
My job is to actually make sure that we make progress
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Moj posao je, zapravo, osigurati napredak
05:24
on all of these disorders.
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u vezi sa svim ovim poremećajima.
05:26
I work for the federal government.
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Radim za federalnu vladu.
05:28
Actually, I work for you. You pay my salary.
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Zapravo, radim za vas. Vi me plaćate.
05:30
And maybe at this point, when you know what I do,
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Možda ćete u ovom trenutku, kada znate što radim,
05:33
or maybe what I've failed to do,
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ili možda ono što nisam uspio učiniti,
05:35
you'll think that I probably ought to be fired,
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pomisliti da bih vjerojatno trebao dobiti otkaz.
05:37
and I could certainly understand that.
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To svakako mogu razumjeti.
05:39
But what I want to suggest, and the reason I'm here
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Ali, ono što želim predložiti, i razlog zašto sam ovdje jest
05:41
is to tell you that I think we're about to be
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reći vam da mislim da ćemo uskoro biti
05:45
in a very different world as we think about these illnesses.
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u veoma drugačijem svijetu, što se ovih bolesti tiče.
05:49
What I've been talking to you about so far is mental disorders,
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Dosad sam vam govorio o mentalnim poremećajima,
05:52
diseases of the mind.
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o bolestima uma.
05:54
That's actually becoming a rather unpopular term these days,
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Danas to, zapravo, postaje prilično nepopularan izraz
05:58
and people feel that, for whatever reason,
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i ljudi misle da je, iz kojeg god razloga,
06:00
it's politically better to use the term behavioral disorders
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politički korektnije koristiti izraz "ponašajni poremećaji"
06:03
and to talk about these as disorders of behavior.
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i govoriti o njima kao o poremećajima ponašanja.
06:07
Fair enough. They are disorders of behavior,
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Pošteno. Oni jesu poremećaji ponašanja,
06:09
and they are disorders of the mind.
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i oni jesu poremećaji uma.
06:11
But what I want to suggest to you
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Međutim, ono što vam želim predložiti je
06:14
is that both of those terms,
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to da oba ova izraza,
06:15
which have been in play for a century or more,
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koja koristimo i dulje od stoljeća,
06:18
are actually now impediments to progress,
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zapravo danas priječe napredak.
06:21
that what we need conceptually to make progress here
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Ono što moramo pojmovno učiniti da bismo uznapredovali jest
06:26
is to rethink these disorders as brain disorders.
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promisliti o ovim poremećajima kao o poremećajima mozga.
06:31
Now, for some of you, you're going to say,
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Neki od vas će reći:
06:33
"Oh my goodness, here we go again.
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„O moj Bože, evo ga opet.
06:35
We're going to hear about a biochemical imbalance
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Slušat ćemo o biokemijskoj neravnoteži,
06:38
or we're going to hear about drugs
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ili o lijekovima,
06:39
or we're going to hear about some very simplistic notion
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ili o veoma pojednostavljenom shvaćanju
06:44
that will take our subjective experience
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koje će pretvoriti naše subjektivno iskustvo
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and turn it into molecules, or maybe into some sort of
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u molekule, ili možda u neku vrstu
06:53
very flat, unidimensional understanding
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vrlo plošnog, jednodimenzionalnog shvaćanja
06:56
of what it is to have depression or schizophrenia.
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što znači imati depresiju ili shizofreniju.
07:00
When we talk about the brain, it is anything but
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Kada govorimo o mozgu, on je sve samo ne
07:05
unidimensional or simplistic or reductionistic.
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jednodimenzionalan, pojednostavljen ili redukcionistički.
07:08
It depends, of course, on what scale
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Ovisi, naravno, o tome na kojoj razini
07:11
or what scope you want to think about,
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ili u kolikom opsegu želite razmišljati...
07:13
but this is an organ of surreal complexity,
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No, mozak je organ nadrealne složenosti.
07:20
and we are just beginning to understand
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Tek počinjemo shvaćati
07:23
how to even study it, whether you're thinking about
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kako ga uopće proučavati, bilo da mislimo o
07:25
the 100 billion neurons that are in the cortex
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100 milijardi neurona u kori velikog mozga,
07:28
or the 100 trillion synapses
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ili o 100 bilijuna sinapsi
07:30
that make up all the connections.
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koje sve povezuju.
07:32
We have just begun to try to figure out
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Tek smo počeli pokušavati iznaći načine
07:36
how do we take this very complex machine
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kako razumjeti taj veoma složeni stroj
07:40
that does extraordinary kinds of information processing
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koji na izvanredne načine procesira informacije,
07:42
and use our own minds to understand
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i kako upotrijebiti naš um da bismo razumjeli
07:45
this very complex brain that supports our own minds.
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taj vrlo složeni mozak koji podržava naše vlastite misli.
07:49
It's actually a kind of cruel trick of evolution
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Doista je okrutan evolucijski trik
07:51
that we simply don't have a brain
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što jednostavno nemamo mozak
07:55
that seems to be wired well enough to understand itself.
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udešen dovoljno dobro da bi razumio samoga sebe.
07:58
In a sense, it actually makes you feel that
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Na neki način, čini se da
08:00
when you're in the safe zone of studying behavior or cognition,
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kada ste u sigurnoj zoni proučavanja ponašanja ili spoznavanja,
08:03
something you can observe,
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nečega što možete promatrati,
08:04
that in a way feels more simplistic and reductionistic
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to se na neki način čini pojednostavljenijim i reduciranijim
08:07
than trying to engage this very complex, mysterious organ
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od pokušaja da se pozabavimo ovim vrlo složenim, zagonetnim organom
08:12
that we're beginning to try to understand.
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kojega tek započinjemo pokušavati shvaćati.
08:15
Now, already in the case of the brain disorders
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U slučaju moždanih poremećaja
08:18
that I've been talking to you about,
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o kojima sam vam govorio -
08:20
depression, obsessive compulsive disorder,
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depresije, opsesivno-kompulzivnog poremećaja,
08:22
post-traumatic stress disorder,
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posttraumatskog stresnog poremećaja -
08:25
while we don't have an in-depth understanding
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iako ne razumijemo u potpunosti
08:27
of how they are abnormally processed
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o kakvim se abnormalnim procesima radi,
08:31
or what the brain is doing in these illnesses,
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ili kako se mozak ponaša kod ovih bolesti,
08:33
we have been able to already identify
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uspjeli smo dosad identificirati
08:36
some of the connectional differences, or some of the ways
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neke od razlika u poveznicama, ili neke od oblika
08:39
in which the circuitry is different
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po kojima se razlikuju "sklopovlja"
08:41
for people who have these disorders.
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kod ljudi s takvim poremećajima.
08:43
We call this the human connectome,
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To zovemo ljudski konektom...
08:45
and you can think about the connectome
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Možete ga zamisliti
08:47
sort of as the wiring diagram of the brain.
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kao živčani dijagram mozga.
08:49
You'll hear more about this in a few minutes.
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Čut ćete više o tome za nekoliko minuta...
08:51
The important piece here is that as you begin to look
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Ovdje je važno da kada počnete promatrati
08:54
at people who have these disorders, the one in five of us
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ljude s ovakvim poremećajima - svakog petog među nama
08:58
who struggle in some way,
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koji na neki način pati -
09:00
you find that there's a lot of variation
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otkrit ćete mnogo raznolikosti
09:02
in the way that the brain is wired,
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u strukturi mozga.
09:06
but there are some predictable patterns, and those patterns
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No, postoje neki predvidljivi uzorci, i ti su uzorci
09:08
are risk factors for developing one of these disorders.
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rizični čimbenici u razvitku jednog od ovih poremećaja.
09:12
It's a little different than the way we think about brain disorders
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Ovo se malo razlikuje od toga kako zamišljamo moždane poremećaje
09:15
like Huntington's or Parkinson's or Alzheimer's disease
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poput Huntingtonove, Parkinsonove ili Alzheimerove bolesti,
09:18
where you have a bombed-out part of your cortex.
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kod kojih je uništen dio moždane kore.
09:20
Here we're talking about traffic jams, or sometimes detours,
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Ovdje govorimo o prometnim gužvama, ponekad i o obilaženjima,
09:23
or sometimes problems with just the way that things are connected
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a ponekad o problemima zbog toga kako su neke stvari povezane,
09:26
and the way that the brain functions.
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i toga kako mozak funkcionira.
09:27
You could, if you want, compare this to,
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Ako želite, možete to usporediti,
09:31
on the one hand, a myocardial infarction, a heart attack,
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s infarktom miokarda, srčanim udarom,
09:34
where you have dead tissue in the heart,
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kod kojega je dio srčanog tkiva mrtav,
09:35
versus an arrhythmia, where the organ simply isn't functioning
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naspram aritmije, kod koje organ jednostavno ne funkcionira
09:39
because of the communication problems within it.
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zbog komunikacijskih problema unutar njega.
09:41
Either one would kill you; in only one of them
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I jedan i drugi će vas ubiti, no samo u jednom
09:43
will you find a major lesion.
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pronaći ćete veliku leziju.
09:46
As we think about this, probably it's better to actually go
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Dok razmišljamo o ovome, vjerojatno je, zapravo, bolje
09:49
a little deeper into one particular disorder, and that would be schizophrenia,
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zadubiti se malo u određeni poremećaj, recimo, u shizofreniju.
09:52
because I think that's a good case
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Mislim da je ona dobar primjer
09:54
for helping to understand why thinking of this as a brain disorder matters.
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koji će nam pomoći razumjeti zašto je važno smatrati je moždanim poremećajem.
09:58
These are scans from Judy Rapoport and her colleagues
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Ovo su snimke Judy Rapoport i njezinih kolega
10:02
at the National Institute of Mental Health
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iz Nacionalnog instituta za mentalno zdravlje,
10:04
in which they studied children with very early onset schizophrenia,
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na kojima su proučavali djecu s vrlo rano manifestiranom shizofrenijom.
10:07
and you can see already in the top
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Na samom vrhu možete uočiti
10:09
there's areas that are red or orange, yellow,
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područja koja su crvena, narančasta, žuta...
10:11
are places where there's less gray matter,
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Na tim mjestima manjka sive tvari.
10:14
and as they followed them over five years,
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Pratili su ih tijekom 5 godina i
10:15
comparing them to age match controls,
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uspoređivali s kontrolnom dobnom skupinom.
10:17
you can see that, particularly in areas like
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Možete vidjeti, posebno u područjima poput
10:19
the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex
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dorzolateralnog prefrontalnog korteksa
10:21
or the superior temporal gyrus, there's a profound loss of gray matter.
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ili gornjeg temporalnog girusa... Popriličan je gubitak sive tvari!
10:26
And it's important, if you try to model this,
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I važno je, pokušate li ovo nekako uobličiti,
10:27
you can think about normal development
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zamislite normalan razvoj
10:29
as a loss of cortical mass, loss of cortical gray matter,
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kao gubitak moždane mase, gubitak sive tvari...
10:33
and what's happening in schizophrenia is that you overshoot that mark,
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Ono što se kod shizofrenije zbiva jest prevelik gubitak.
10:36
and at some point, when you overshoot,
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I jednom, kad previše tvari propadne,
10:38
you cross a threshold, and it's that threshold
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prijeđete granicu, a radi se o pragu
10:41
where we say, this is a person who has this disease,
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na kojemu kažemo da je osoba oboljela,
10:44
because they have the behavioral symptoms
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jer pokazuje ponašajne simptome
10:47
of hallucinations and delusions.
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poput halucinacija i deluzija.
10:49
That's something we can observe.
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To možemo promatrati.
10:50
But look at this closely and you can see that actually they've crossed a different threshold.
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Međutim, pažljivije pogledajte i vidjet ćete da su prešli različite pragove.
10:56
They've crossed a brain threshold much earlier,
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Prešli su moždani prag mnogo ranije,
10:59
that perhaps not at age 22 or 20,
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ne u 22. ili 20. godini,
11:02
but even by age 15 or 16 you can begin to see
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već i u 15. ili 16. može se zamijetiti
11:05
the trajectory for development is quite different
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da je razvojni tok poprilično različit
11:07
at the level of the brain, not at the level of behavior.
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na razini mozga, ne na razini ponašanja.
11:11
Why does this matter? Well first because,
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Zašto je to važno? Pa, najprije zato što je
11:13
for brain disorders, behavior is the last thing to change.
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kod moždanih poremećaja ponašanje zadnje koje se mijenja.
11:16
We know that for Alzheimer's, for Parkinson's, for Huntington's.
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To nam je poznato kod Alzheimerove, Parkinsonove i Huntingtonove bolesti.
11:19
There are changes in the brain a decade or more
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U mozgu se promjene zbivaju i više od desetljeća
11:21
before you see the first signs of a behavioral change.
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prije no što zamijetite prve znakove promjena u ponašanju.
11:26
The tools that we have now allow us to detect
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Današnja nam tehnologija dopušta da otkrijemo
11:29
these brain changes much earlier, long before the symptoms emerge.
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te moždane promjene puno ranije, puno prije no što se simptomi pojave.
11:34
But most important, go back to where we started.
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Ali najvažnije, vratimo se na početak.
11:37
The good-news stories in medicine
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Dobre su vijesti u medicini
11:40
are early detection, early intervention.
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rana dijagnostika, rano djelovanje.
11:43
If we waited until the heart attack,
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Kad bismo čekali sve do srčanog udara,
11:47
we would be sacrificing 1.1 million lives
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žrtvovali bismo 1,1 milijun života
11:51
every year in this country to heart disease.
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svake godine u ovoj zemlji.
11:53
That is precisely what we do today
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Upravo to činimo danas
11:56
when we decide that everybody with one of these brain disorders,
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kad odlučimo da svatko s jednim od ovih moždanih poremećaja,
12:00
brain circuit disorders, has a behavioral disorder.
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poremećaja moždanih sklopova, ima poremećaj ponašanja.
12:03
We wait until the behavior becomes manifest.
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Čekamo da se ponašanje manifestira.
12:06
That's not early detection. That's not early intervention.
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To nije rana dijagnostika. To nije rano djelovanje.
12:11
Now to be clear, we're not quite ready to do this.
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Da raščistimo - nismo još uvijek posve spremni za ovo.
12:13
We don't have all the facts. We don't actually even know
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Ne raspolažemo svim činjenicama. Ne znamo čak ni
12:16
what the tools will be,
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kakve ćemo alate koristiti,
12:19
nor what to precisely look for in every case to be able
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niti što ćemo točno svaki put tražiti
12:23
to get there before the behavior emerges as different.
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kako bismo djelovali prije no što se ponašanje promijeni.
12:27
But this tells us how we need to think about it,
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Ali, ovo nam govori kako trebamo razmišljati,
12:30
and where we need to go.
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i kamo bismo trebali krenuti.
12:31
Are we going to be there soon?
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Hoćemo li uskoro stići onamo?
12:33
I think that this is something that will happen
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Mislim da će se to dogoditi
12:35
over the course of the next few years, but I'd like to finish
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tijekom sljedećih nekoliko godina... Ali, želio bih završiti
12:38
with a quote about trying to predict how this will happen
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s citatom o nastojanju da se predvidi kako će se to dogoditi,
12:41
by somebody who's thought a lot about changes
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mišlju nekoga tko je puno razmišljao o promjenama
12:43
in concepts and changes in technology.
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u pojmovima i u promjenama u tehnologijama.
12:45
"We always overestimate the change that will occur
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„Uvijek precjenjujemo promjenu koja će se dogoditi
12:48
in the next two years and underestimate
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u sljedeće dvije godine, a podcjenjujemo
12:50
the change that will occur in the next 10." -- Bill Gates.
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promjenu koja će se dogoditi u sljedećih deset.“ (Bill Gates)
12:54
Thanks very much.
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Puno hvala.
12:55
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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