When ideas have sex | Matt Ridley

Prevodilac: Ivana Korom Lektor: Sandra Gojic

When I was a student here in Oxford in the 1970s,

Kada sam bio student ovde u Oksfordu, sedamdesetih,

the future of the world was bleak.

budućnost sveta bila je maglovita.

The population explosion was unstoppable.

Eksplozija populacije bila je nezaustavljiva.

Global famine was inevitable.

Globalna glad bila je neizbežna.

A cancer epidemic caused by chemicals in the environment

Epidemija raka uzrokovanog hemikalijama iz sredine

was going to shorten our lives.

skratila bi naše živote.

The acid rain was falling on the forests.

Kisele kiše padale su u šumama.

The desert was advancing by a mile or two a year.

Pustinja se širila po 2-3 kilometara godišnje.

The oil was running out,

Nestajalo je nafte.

and a nuclear winter would finish us off.

A nuklearna zima bi nas sve dokrajčila.

None of those things happened,

Ništa od toga nije se desilo.

(Laughter)

(smeh)

and astonishingly, if you look at what actually happened in my lifetime,

I zapanjujuće, ako pogledate šta se jeste desilo tokom mog života,

the average per-capita income

prosečni individualni prihod

of the average person on the planet,

prosečne osobe na planeti,

in real terms, adjusted for inflation,

u realnim terminima, poravnato zbog inflacije,

has tripled.

utrostručio se.

Lifespan is up by 30 percent in my lifetime.

Životni vek je produžen 30% u toku mog života.

Child mortality is down by two-thirds.

Dečija smrtnost je smanjena za dve trećine.

Per-capita food production

Proizvodnja hrane po osobi

is up by a third.

povećana je za trećinu.

And all this at a time when the population has doubled.

I sve to u vremenu kada se populacija duplirala.

How did we achieve that, whether you think it's a good thing or not?

Kako smo to postigli - bilo da smatrate da je to dobra ili loša stvar -

How did we achieve that?

Kako smo to postigli?

How did we become

Kako smo postali

the only species

jedina vrsta

that becomes more prosperous

koja postajući brojnija,

as it becomes more populous?

postaje naprednija?

The size of the blob in this graph represents the size of the population,

Veličina kruga u ovom grafiku predstavlja veličinu populacije.

and the level of the graph

A nivo grafika predstavlja

represents GDP per capita.

BDP po osobi.

I think to answer that question

Da bismo odgovorili na to pitanje, mislim

you need to understand

da morate razumeti

how human beings bring together their brains

kako ljudi spajaju svoje mozgove

and enable their ideas to combine and recombine,

i omogućavaju svojim idejama da se kombinuju i prekombinuju,

to meet and, indeed, to mate.

da se sreću i pare.

In other words, you need to understand

Drugim rečima, potrebno je da razumete

how ideas have sex.

kako ideje upražnjavaju seks.

I want you to imagine

Želim da zamislite

how we got from making objects like this

kako smo dospeli od toga da pravimo ovakve predmete

to making objects like this.

do toga da pravimo ovakve.

These are both real objects.

Oba predmeta su pravi predmeti.

One is an Acheulean hand axe from half a million years ago

Ovo je [nejasno] ručna sekira od pre pola miliona godina,

of the kind made by Homo erectus.

vrsta koju je pravio Homo erectus.

The other is obviously a computer mouse.

Drugi je, očigledno, kompjuterski miš.

They're both exactly the same size and shape to an uncanny degree.

Oba su potpuno iste veličine i oblika, što je neverovatno.

I've tried to work out which is bigger,

Pokušao sam da shvatim koji je veći,

and it's almost impossible.

što je skoro nemoguće.

And that's because they're both designed to fit the human hand.

A to je zato što su oba napravljena da stanu u ljudsku šaku.

They're both technologies. In the end, their similarity is not that interesting.

Oba su tehnologije. Na kraju, nije njihova sličnost toliko interesantna.

It just tells you they were both designed to fit the human hand.

Samo vam govori da su oba napravljena da stanu u šaku.

The differences are what interest me,

Mene interesuje razlika.

because the one on the left was made to a pretty unvarying design

Jer ovaj sa leve strane oko milion godina

for about a million years --

nije menjao izgled -

from one-and-a-half million years ago to half a million years ago.

od pre milion ipo godina do pre pola miliona godina.

Homo erectus made the same tool

Homo erectus je pravio isti alat

for 30,000 generations.

kroz 30,000 generacija.

Of course there were a few changes,

Naravno da je bilo nekih izmena,

but tools changed slower than skeletons in those days.

ali alati su se u to vreme menjali sporije od skeleta.

There was no progress, no innovation.

Nije bilo napretka, inovacije.

It's an extraordinary phenomenon, but it's true.

To je neverovatan fenomen, ali je istinit.

Whereas the object on the right is obsolete after five years.

Dok predmet sa desne strane izlazi iz mode posle pet godina.

And there's another difference too,

Postoji još jedna razlika,

which is the object on the left is made from one substance.

a to je da je predmet sa desne strane napravljen od jednog materijala.

The object on the right is made from

Predmet sa desne strane je napravljen

a confection of different substances,

iz kombinacije različitih materijala,

from silicon and metal and plastic and so on.

od silikona i metala do plastike itd.

And more than that, it's a confection of different ideas,

I više od toga, to je skup različitih ideja,

the idea of plastic, the idea of a laser,

ideje plastike, ideje lasera,

the idea of transistors.

ideje tranzistora.

They've all been combined together in this technology.

Sve su one povezane u ovoj tehnologiji.

And it's this combination,

I ova kombinacija,

this cumulative technology, that intrigues me,

ova kumulativna tehnologija mene interesuje.

because I think it's the secret to understanding

Jer mislim da je u tome tajna razumevanja

what's happening in the world.

onoga što se dešava u svetu.

My body's an accumulation of ideas too:

I moje telo je skup ideja, takođe,

the idea of skin cells, the idea of brain cells, the idea of liver cells.

ideje kožnih ćelija, ideje moždanih ćelija, ideje ćelija u jetri.

They've come together.

One su se spojile.

How does evolution do cumulative, combinatorial things?

Kako evolucija pravi kumulativne, kombinovane stvari?

Well, it uses sexual reproduction.

Pa, koristi seksualnu reprodukciju.

In an asexual species, if you get two different mutations in different creatures,

Kod aseksualnih vrsta, ako imate dve različite mutacije kod različitih stvorenja,

a green one and a red one,

zelenog i crvenog,

then one has to be better than the other.

onda jedan mora biti bolji od drugog.

One goes extinct for the other to survive.

Jedan izumre da bi drugi preživeo.

But if you have a sexual species,

Ali ako imate seksualnu vrstu,

then it's possible for an individual

onda je moguće da individua

to inherit both mutations

nasledi obe mutacije

from different lineages.

od različitih strana.

So what sex does is it enables the individual

Znači seks omogućava individui

to draw upon

da izvuče

the genetic innovations of the whole species.

genetske inovacije cele vrste.

It's not confined to its own lineage.

Nije ograničena na svoju lozu.

What's the process that's having the same effect

Koji proces ima isti efekat

in cultural evolution

u kulturnoj evoluciji,

as sex is having in biological evolution?

kao što seks ima u biološkoj evoluciji?

And I think the answer is exchange,

Mislim da je odgovor razmena,

the habit of exchanging one thing for another.

navika razmene jedne stvari za drugu.

It's a unique human feature.

To je jedinstvena ljudska osobina.

No other animal does it.

Nijedna druga životinja to ne čini.

You can teach them in the laboratory to do a little bit of exchange --

U laboratoriji ih možete naučiti da pomalo razmenjuju.

and indeed there's reciprocity in other animals --

I naravno da postoji reciprocitet kod drugih životinja.

But the exchange of one object for another never happens.

Ali razmena jednog objekta za drugi nikada ne postoji.

As Adam Smith said, "No man ever saw a dog

Kao što je Adam Smit rekao, "Još nijedan čovek nije video

make a fair exchange of a bone with another dog."

psa kako pravedno razmenjuje kosku sa drugim psom."

(Laughter)

(smeh)

You can have culture without exchange.

Možete imati kulturu bez razmene.

You can have, as it were, asexual culture.

Možete imati aseksualnu kulturu.

Chimpanzees, killer whales, these kinds of creatures, they have culture.

Šimpanze, kitovi ubice, ta stvorenja imaju kulturu.

They teach each other traditions

Jedni druge uče tradicijama

which are handed down from parent to offspring.

koje se prenose sa roditelja na potomke.

In this case, chimpanzees teaching each other

U ovom slučaju, šimpanze uče jedni druge

how to crack nuts with rocks.

da razbijaju orahe kamenjem.

But the difference is

Ali razlika je u tome

that these cultures never expand, never grow,

što se ove kulture nikada ne šire, ne rastu,

never accumulate, never become combinatorial,

ne akumuliraju, nikada ne postanu proizvodna.

and the reason is because

A razlog tome je što

there is no sex, as it were,

nema sekaa, na neki način,

there is no exchange of ideas.

nema razmene ideja.

Chimpanzee troops have different cultures in different troops.

Porodice šimpanzi imaju različite kulture u različitim porodicama.

There's no exchange of ideas between them.

Među njima nema razmene ideja.

And why does exchange raise living standards?

A zašto razmena podiže životne standarde?

Well, the answer came from David Ricardo in 1817.

Pa, odgovor je dao Dejvid Rikardo, 1817. godine.

And here is a Stone Age version of his story,

Postoji verzija ove priče iz kamenog doba,

although he told it in terms of trade between countries.

mada se njegova odnosi na međudržavnu razmenu.

Adam takes four hours to make a spear and three hours to make an axe.

Adamu je potrebno 4 sata da napravi koplje, a 3 da napravi sekiru.

Oz takes one hour to make a spear and two hours to make an axe.

Ozu je potreban jedan sat da napravi koplje i dva za sekiru.

So Oz is better at both spears and axes than Adam.

Znači Oz je u obe stvari bolji od Adama.

He doesn't need Adam.

Adam mu nije potreban.

He can make his own spears and axes.

Može sam da pravi svoja koplja i sekire.

Well no, because if you think about it,

Ali ne, jer ako razmislite,

if Oz makes two spears and Adam make two axes,

ako Oz pravi dva koplja, a Adam dve sekire,

and then they trade,

i onda se menjaju,

then they will each have saved an hour of work.

svaki će uštedeti po sat vremena posla.

And the more they do this, the more true it's going to be,

Što više to rade, ovo će biti tačnije.

because the more they do this, the better Adam is going to get at making axes

Jer što više to rade, Adam će biti bolji u izradi sekira,

and the better Oz is going to get at making spears.

a Oz će napredovati u izradi koplja.

So the gains from trade are only going to grow.

Znači dobici od razmene će da rastu.

And this is one of the beauties of exchange,

Ovo je jedna od lepota razmene,

is it actually creates the momentum

ona zapravo stvara priliku

for more specialization,

za još više specijalizacije,

which creates the momentum for more exchange and so on.

koja stvara priliku za više razmene i tako dalje.

Adam and Oz both saved an hour of time.

I Adam i Oz uštede po sat vremena.

That is prosperity, the saving of time

To je napredak, ušteda vremena

in satisfying your needs.

u zadovoljavanju potreba.

Ask yourself how long you would have to work

Zapitajte se koliko dugo biste morali da radite

to provide for yourself

da biste sebi obezbedili

an hour of reading light this evening to read a book by.

sat vremena svetla za čitanje knjige večeras.

If you had to start from scratch, let's say you go out into the countryside.

Da morate da počnete od nule, recimo morate da odete u prirodu.

You find a sheep. You kill it. You get the fat out of it.

Nađete ovcu. Ubijete je. Uzmete njenu mast.

You render it down. You make a candle, etc. etc.

Rastopite je. Napravite sveću, itd, itd.

How long is it going to take you? Quite a long time.

Koliko će vam vremena biti potrebno za to? Prilično.

How long do you actually have to work

Koliko zaista morate da radite

to earn an hour of reading light

da biste zaradili sat vremena svetla za čitanje,

if you're on the average wage in Britain today?

ako imate prosečnu britanksu platu danas?

And the answer is about half a second.

Odgovor je oko pola sekunde.

Back in 1950,

Pedesetih bi

you would have had to work for eight seconds on the average wage

bilo potrebno da radite osam sekundi uz prosečnu platu

to acquire that much light.

da biste dobili toliko svetla.

And that's seven and a half seconds of prosperity that you've gained

To je sedam ipo sekundi napretka koje ste dobili.

since 1950, as it were,

Od 1950., recimo.

because that's seven and a half seconds in which you can do something else,

Jer to je sedam ipo sekundi u toku kojih možete uraditi nešto drugo.

or you can acquire another good or service.

Ili možete nabaviti drugu stvar ili uslugu.

And back in 1880,

A davne 1880.,

it would have been 15 minutes

bilo je potrebno 15 minuta

to earn that amount of light on the average wage.

da se zaradi ta količina svetla, uz prosečnu platu.

Back in 1800,

U devetnaestom veku

you'd have had to work six hours

morali ste da radite šest sati

to earn a candle that could burn for an hour.

da biste zaradili sveću koja gori sat vremena.

In other words, the average person on the average wage

Drugim rečima, prosečna osoba sa prosečnom platom

could not afford a candle in 1800.

nije mogla da priušti sveću 1800.

Go back to this image of the axe and the mouse,

Vratite se na ovu sliku sekire i miša,

and ask yourself: "Who made them and for who?"

i zapitajte se: "Ko ih je napravio i za koga?"

The stone axe was made by someone for himself.

Kamenu sekiru je neko napravio za sebe.

It was self-sufficiency.

To je bila nezavisnost.

We call that poverty these days.

Ovih dana to zovemo siromaštvo.

But the object on the right

Ali predmet sa desne strane

was made for me by other people.

su za mene napravili drugi ljudi.

How many other people?

Koliko drugih ljudi?

Tens? Hundreds? Thousands?

Desetine? Stotine? Hiljade?

You know, I think it's probably millions.

Znate, mislim da su verovatno milioni.

Because you've got to include the man who grew the coffee,

Jer morate da uračunate čoveka koji je uzgajao kafu,

which was brewed for the man who was on the oil rig,

koja je pripremljena za čoveka na naftnoj bušotini,

who was drilling for oil, which was going to be made into the plastic, etc.

koji je vadio naftu koja će se pretvoriti u plastiku, itd.

They were all working for me,

Svi su radili za mene,

to make a mouse for me.

da meni naprave miša.

And that's the way society works.

I na taj način funkcioniše društvo.

That's what we've achieved as a species.

To smo, kao vrsta, postigli.

In the old days, if you were rich,

U stara vremena, ako ste bili bogati,

you literally had people working for you.

bukvalno ste imali ljude koji su radili za vas.

That's how you got to be rich; you employed them.

Tako ste postajali bogati; zapošljavali ste ih.

Louis XIV had a lot of people working for him.

Luj XIV je imao puno ljudi koji su radili za njega.

They made his silly outfits, like this,

Pravili su mu smešnu odoru, kao ovu.

(Laughter)

(smeh)

and they did his silly hairstyles, or whatever.

I pravili su mu smešne frizure, ili štagod.

He had 498 people

Imao je 498 ljudi koji

to prepare his dinner every night.

su mu spremali večeru svako veče.

But a modern tourist going around the palace of Versailles

Ali moderni turista koji ide okolo po Versaju

and looking at Louis XIV's pictures,

i gleda slike Luja XIV

he has 498 people doing his dinner tonight too.

takođe ima 498 ljudi koji mu pripremaju večeru.

They're in bistros and cafes and restaurants

Oni su u bistroima i kafeima i restoranima

and shops all over Paris,

i prodavnicama širom Pariza.

and they're all ready to serve you at an hour's notice with an excellent meal

I svi su spremni da vas u roku od sat vremena usluže odličnim jelima

that's probably got higher quality

koja su verovatno kvalitetnija

than Louis XIV even had.

od bilo kojih Lujevih.

And that's what we've done, because we're all working for each other.

I to smo postigli, jer svi radimo jedni za druge.

We're able to draw upon specialization and exchange

U mogućnosti smo da napredujemo iz usavršavanja i razmene

to raise each other's living standards.

kako bismo jedni drugima podigli životni standard.

Now, you do get other animals working for each other too.

Sad, imate i druge životinje koje rade jedne za druge.

Ants are a classic example; workers work for queens and queens work for workers.

Mravi su klasičan primer; radnici rade za maticu, matica radi za radnike.

But there's a big difference,

Ali postoji velika razlika,

which is that it only happens within the colony.

a to je da se to dešava samo unutar kolonije.

There's no working for each other across the colonies.

Među kolonijama oni ne rade jedni za druge.

And the reason for that is because there's a reproductive division of labor.

Razlog tome je reproduktivna podela rada.

That is to say, they specialize with respect to reproduction.

To znači da se specijalizuju u odnosu na reprodukciju.

The queen does it all.

Matica radi sve.

In our species, we don't like doing that.

Mi u našoj vrsti ne volimo to.

It's the one thing we insist on doing for ourselves, is reproduction.

Reprodukcija je jedna stvar koju volimo da radimo za sebe.

(Laughter)

(smeh)

Even in England, we don't leave reproduction to the Queen.

Čak i u Engleskoj ne prepuštamo reprodukciju kraljici.

(Applause)

(aplauz)

So when did this habit start?

Znači, kada je počela ova navika?

And how long has it been going on? And what does it mean?

I koliko dugo traje? I šta znači?

Well, I think, probably, the oldest version of this

Pa, ja mislim da je verovatno najstarija verzija ovoga

is probably the sexual division of labor.

podela posla na seksualnoj osnovi.

But I've got no evidence for that.

Ali nemam dokaza za to.

It just looks like the first thing we did

Samo izgleda kao da je prva stvar koju smo uradili

was work male for female and female for male.

to da muškarci rade za žene i žene za muškarce.

In all hunter-gatherer societies today,

U svim današnjim lovačko-sakupljačkim društvima

there's a foraging division of labor

postoji lovačka podela rada

between, on the whole, hunting males and gathering females.

između, generalno, muškaraca koji love i žena koje sakupljaju.

It isn't always quite that simple,

Nije uvek tako jednostavno.

but there's a distinction between

Ali postoji razlika između

specialized roles for males and females.

specijalizovanih uloga između muškaraca i žena.

And the beauty of this system

A lepota ovog sistema je

is that it benefits both sides.

u tome što pogoduje obema stranama.

The woman knows

Žena zna,

that, in the Hadzas' case here --

u slučaju Hadze ovde -

digging roots to share with men in exchange for meat --

iskopavaju korenje da podele s muškarcima u zamenu za meso -

she knows that all she has to do to get access to protein

ona zna da, da bi došla do proteina

is to dig some extra roots and trade them for meat.

treba samo da iskopa malo više korenja i razmeni ih za meso.

And she doesn't have to go on an exhausting hunt

I ne mora da ide u iscrpljujući lov

and try and kill a warthog.

i pokušava da ubije divlju svinju.

And the man knows that he doesn't have to do any digging

A muškarac zna da ne mora uopšte da kopa

to get roots.

da bi došao do korenja.

All he has to do is make sure that when he kills a warthog

On samo treba da se postara da je svinja koju ubije

it's big enough to share some.

dovoljno velika da može da je podeli.

And so both sides raise each other's standards of living

Tako obe strane dižu životni standard jedna drugoj,

through the sexual division of labor.

putem seksualne podele rada.

When did this happen? We don't know, but it's possible

Kada se ovo desilo? Ne znamo, ali je moguće

that Neanderthals didn't do this.

da neandertalci ovo nisu radili.

They were a highly cooperative species.

Oni su kao vrsta mnogo sarađivali.

They were a highly intelligent species.

Bili su veoma inteligentni.

Their brains on average, by the end, were bigger than yours and mine

Njihovi mozgovi su u proseku bili veći od vašeg

in this room today.

i mog danas.

They were imaginative. They buried their dead.

Bili su maštoviti. Sahranjivali su mrtve.

They had language, probably,

Verovatno su imali jezik,

because we know they had the FOXP2 gene of the same kind as us,

jer znamo da su imali gen FOXP2 iste vrste kao i mi,

which was discovered here in Oxford.

koji je otkriven ovde u Oksfordu.

And so it looks like they probably had linguistic skills.

I izgleda da su verovatno imali lingvističke veštine.

They were brilliant people. I'm not dissing the Neanderthals.

Bili su izuzetni ljudi. Ne nipodaštavam neandertalce.

But there's no evidence

Ali ne postoje dokazi

of a sexual division of labor.

seksualne podele rada.

There's no evidence of gathering behavior by females.

Ne postoji dokaz sakupljačkog ponašanja žena.

It looks like the females were cooperative hunters with the men.

Izgleda da su žene bile lovci kao i muškarci.

And the other thing there's no evidence for

A druga stvar za koju ne postoje dokazi

is exchange between groups,

je međugrupna razmena.

because the objects that you find in Neanderthal remains,

Jer predmeti koji se nalaze u ostacima neandertalaca,

the tools they made,

alati koje su pravili,

are always made from local materials.

uvek su od lokalnih materijala.

For example, in the Caucasus

Na primer, na Kavkazu

there's a site where you find local Neanderthal tools.

postoji mesto gde možete naći lokalne alate neandertalaca.

They're always made from local chert.

Uvek su izrađeni od lokalnog kamena.

In the same valley there are modern human remains

U istoj dolini ima ostataka novih ljudskih ostataka

from about the same date, 30,000 years ago,

iz otprilike istog perioda, pre 30.000 godina.

and some of those are from local chert,

I neki od njih jesu od lokalnog kamena,

but more -- but many of them are made

ali više - mnogo njih je

from obsidian from a long way away.

od opsidijana od pre mnogo godina.

And when human beings began

A kada su ljudska bića počela

moving objects around like this,

da premeštaju ovakve predmete,

it was evidence that they were exchanging between groups.

to je dokaz da je postojala razmena među grupama.

Trade is 10 times as old as farming.

Razmena je 10 puta starija od ratarstva.

People forget that. People think of trade as a modern thing.

Ljudi to zaboravljaju. Ljudi misle da je to savremena stvar.

Exchange between groups has been going on

Razmena među grupama se odvija

for a hundred thousand years.

stotinama hiljada godina.

And the earliest evidence for it crops up

A rani dokaz za to pojavljuje se

somewhere between 80 and 120,000 years ago in Africa,

negde pre između 80 i 120.000 u Africi,

when you see obsidian and jasper and other things

gde vidite da opsidijan i jaspis i druge stvari

moving long distances in Ethiopia.

prelaze velike razdaljine u Etiopiji.

You also see seashells --

Takođe vidite morske školjke -

as discovered by a team here in Oxford --

kao što je i jedan tim ovde u Oksfordu otkrio -

moving 125 miles inland

koje putuju 200 kilometara u unutrašnjost,

from the Mediterranean in Algeria.

sa Mediterana u Alžir.

And that's evidence that people

I to su dokazi da su ljudi

have started exchanging between groups.

počeli da razmenjuju među grupama.

And that will have led to specialization.

I to će dovesti do specijalizacije.

How do you know that long-distance movement

Kako znate da dugo putovanje

means trade rather than migration?

znači razmenu, a ne migraciju?

Well, you look at modern hunter gatherers like aboriginals,

Pa, pogledate moderne lovce skupljače kao što su Aboridžini,

who quarried for stone axes at a place called Mount Isa,

koji kopaju kamen za sekire na planini Isa,

which was a quarry owned by the Kalkadoon tribe.

a to je kamenolom koji drži pleme Kalkadun.

They traded them with their neighbors

Menjali su se sa susedima

for things like stingray barbs,

za stvari kao što su strele od raža.

and the consequence was that stone axes

A posledica toga je da su sekire

ended up over a large part of Australia.

završile na udaljenom kraju Australije.

So long-distance movement of tools

Dakle, daleko pomeranje alata

is a sign of trade, not migration.

je znak razmene, a ne migracije.

What happens when you cut people off from exchange,

Šta se dešava kada ljudima uskratite razmenu,

from the ability to exchange and specialize?

mogućnost da razmenjuju i da se usavršavaju?

And the answer is that

Odgovor je,

not only do you slow down technological progress,

ne samo da usporite tehnološki napredak,

you can actually throw it into reverse.

nego možete i da ga unazadite.

An example is Tasmania.

Primer je Tasmanija.

When the sea level rose and Tasmania became an island 10,000 years ago,

Kada se nivo mora digao i Tasmanija postala ostrvo, pre 10.000 godina,

the people on it not only experienced

ljudi su doživeli

slower progress than people on the mainland,

ne samo sporiji napredak nego ljudi na kopnu,

they actually experienced regress.

nego čak i nazadovanje.

They gave up the ability to make stone tools

Izgubili su sposobnost da prave alate od kostiju

and fishing equipment and clothing

i opremu za pecanje i odeću,

because the population of about 4,000 people

jer populacija od 4000 ljudi

was simply not large enough

nije dovoljno velika

to maintain the specialized skills

da održi specijalizovane veštine

necessary to keep the technology they had.

koje su potrebne da se zadrži tehnologija koju su imali.

It's as if the people in this room were plonked on a desert island.

Kao kad bi ljude iz ove sobe stavili na pusto ostrvo.

How many of the things in our pockets

Koliko stvari iz vaših džepova

could we continue to make after 10,000 years?

bismo nastavili da proizvodimo posle 10.000 godina?

It didn't happen in Tierra del Fuego --

To se nije desilo na Tijera del Fuegu -

similar island, similar people.

slično ostrvo, slični ljudi.

The reason: because Tierra del Fuego

Razlog, Tijera del Fuego

is separated from South America by a much narrower straight,

je odvojen od Južne Amerike mnogo užim prolazom.

and there was trading contact across that straight

Postojao je trgovinski kontakt duž prolaza

throughout 10,000 years.

tokom 10.000 godina.

The Tasmanians were isolated.

Tasmanijci su bili izolovani.

Go back to this image again

Vratite se ponovo na ovu sliku

and ask yourself, not only who made it and for who,

i zapitajte se, ne samo ko je ovo napravio i za koga,

but who knew how to make it.

nego i ko je znao kako da to napravi.

In the case of the stone axe, the man who made it knew how to make it.

U slučaju kamene sekire, čovek koji ju je napravio znao je kako.

But who knows how to make a computer mouse?

Ali ko zna kako da napravi kompjuterski miš?

Nobody, literally nobody.

Niko, bukvalno niko.

There is nobody on the planet who knows how to make a computer mouse.

Niko na planeti ne zna da napravi miš za kompjuter.

I mean this quite seriously.

Potpuno ozbiljno mislim ovo.

The president of the computer mouse company doesn't know.

Predsednik kompanije za miševe ne zna.

He just knows how to run a company.

On samo zna da vodi kompaniju.

The person on the assembly line doesn't know

Osoba na proizvodnoj liniji ne zna,

because he doesn't know how to drill an oil well

jer ne zna kako se kopa nafta

to get oil out to make plastic, and so on.

da bi se od nje napravila plastika itd.

We all know little bits, but none of us knows the whole.

Svi znamo po malo, ali niko od nas ne zna sve.

I am of course quoting from a famous essay

Naravno, citiram čuveni esej

by Leonard Read, the economist in the 1950s,

Leonarda Rida, ekonomiste iz pedesetih,

called "I, Pencil"

koji se zove "Ja, olovka"

in which he wrote about how a pencil came to be made,

u kom je pisao o nastanku olovke,

and how nobody knows even how to make a pencil,

i kako niko ne zna kako se pravi olovka,

because the people who assemble it don't know how to mine graphite,

jer ljudi koji je sastavljaju ne znaju kako da vade grafit.

and they don't know how to fell trees and that kind of thing.

I ne znaju kako da obaraju drveće i takve stvari.

And what we've done in human society,

A u društvu smo,

through exchange and specialization,

kroz razmenu i specijalizaciju

is we've created

stvorili

the ability to do things that we don't even understand.

sposobnost da radimo stvari koje ni ne razumemo.

It's not the same with language.

Nije isto sa jezikom.

With language we have to transfer ideas

U jeziku moramo da prenosimo ideje

that we understand with each other.

koje jedni s drugima razumemo.

But with technology,

Ali sa tehnologijom,

we can actually do things that are beyond our capabilities.

možemo da radimo stvari koje su iznad naših sposobnosti.

We've gone beyond the capacity of the human mind

Otišli smo iznad kapaciteta ljudskog uma,

to an extraordinary degree.

do neverovatnog nivoa.

And by the way,

I usput,

that's one of the reasons that I'm not interested

to je jedan od razloga zašto

in the debate about I.Q.,

me ne ineteresuje rasprava o IQ,

about whether some groups have higher I.Q.s than other groups.

o tome da li neke grupe imaju viši IQ od nekih drugih.

It's completely irrelevant.

To je potpuno nebitno.

What's relevant to a society

Ono što je bitno za društvo

is how well people are communicating their ideas,

je koliko dobro ljudi prenose svoje ideje,

and how well they're cooperating,

i koliko dobro sarađuju,

not how clever the individuals are.

a ne koliko su njihovi pojedinci pametni.

So we've created something called the collective brain.

Dakle stvorili smo kolektivni mozak.

We're just the nodes in the network.

Mi smo samo čvorovi u mreži.

We're the neurons in this brain.

Mi smo neuroni u tom mozgu.

It's the interchange of ideas,

A razmena ideja,

the meeting and mating of ideas between them,

susretanje i parenje ideja uzrokuje

that is causing technological progress,

tehnološki napredak

incrementally, bit by bit.

postepeno, malo po malo.

However, bad things happen.

Međutim, loše stvari se dešavaju.

And in the future, as we go forward,

I u budućnosti, kako napredujemo,

we will, of course, experience terrible things.

iskusićemo, naravno, užasne stvari.

There will be wars; there will be depressions;

Biće ratova; biće depresija;

there will be natural disasters.

biće prirodnih katastrofa.

Awful things will happen in this century, I'm absolutely sure.

Potpuno sam siguran da će se užasne stvari desiti u ovom veku.

But I'm also sure that, because of the connections people are making,

Ali takođe sam siguran da, zbog veza koje ljudi prave,

and the ability of ideas

i sposobnosti ideja

to meet and to mate

da se susreću i pare,

as never before,

kao nikada pre,

I'm also sure

siguran sam da

that technology will advance,

će tehnologija napredovati,

and therefore living standards will advance.

i zbog toga će i životni standardi napredovati.

Because through the cloud,

Jer kroz oblake,

through crowd sourcing,

kroz grupno izvođenje,

through the bottom-up world that we've created,

kroz vertikalni svet koji smo stvorili,

where not just the elites but everybody

gde ne samo elita, nego svi mogu

is able to have their ideas

da imaju ideje

and make them meet and mate,

i da se one sreću i pare,

we are surely accelerating the rate of innovation.

zasigurno ubrzavamo tempo inovacija.

Thank you.

Hvala vam

(Applause)

(aplauz)