When ideas have sex | Matt Ridley

譯者: Lin Su-Wei(林書暐) 審譯者: Zhu Jie

When I was a student here in Oxford in the 1970s,

1970年，當我還是個牛津大學的學生時，

the future of the world was bleak.

全世界的未來是暗淡無光的。

The population explosion was unstoppable.

人口爆炸的情形我們擋不住，

Global famine was inevitable.

全球性的饑荒似乎無法避免。

A cancer epidemic caused by chemicals in the environment

環境中的化學殘留物造成癌症的蔓延，

was going to shorten our lives.

使我們的壽命減短。

The acid rain was falling on the forests.

酸雨落在森林裡。

The desert was advancing by a mile or two a year.

沙漠的範圍每年都擴張1到2英里。

The oil was running out,

石油就快被我們用完。

and a nuclear winter would finish us off.

核子冬天會把我們殺死。（註：全球發動核戰後的情景）

None of those things happened,

不過剛說的其實都沒有發生。

(Laughter)

（笑）

and astonishingly, if you look at what actually happened in my lifetime,

令人驚訝的是，若你好好觀察我有生之年發生了什麼事情，

the average per-capita income

目前地球上，

of the average person on the planet,

平均一個人的收入，

in real terms, adjusted for inflation,

經過通膨的調整，實際上

has tripled.

比以前成長了3倍。

Lifespan is up by 30 percent in my lifetime.

我的壽命比以前提升了30%。

Child mortality is down by two-thirds.

兒童死亡率下降了三分之二 。

Per-capita food production

平均一個人的食品生產量

is up by a third.

上升了三分之一。

And all this at a time when the population has doubled.

我們在人口暴增2倍的情況下發生這些事情。

How did we achieve that, whether you think it's a good thing or not?

怎麼做到的?不論你覺得這樣是好是壞，

How did we achieve that?

我們到底怎麼做到的?

How did we become

我們是如何變成

the only species

生活密度越高

that becomes more prosperous

就越興旺的

as it becomes more populous?

物種。

The size of the blob in this graph represents the size of the population,

圖中的顏色班點代表人口，

and the level of the graph

圖中的縱座標

represents GDP per capita.

表示人均國民生產毛額。

I think to answer that question

我想去回答

you need to understand

各位必須了解的疑問，

how human beings bring together their brains

人類是如何匯集他們的大腦，

and enable their ideas to combine and recombine,

並讓腦中的概念結合再結合，

to meet and, indeed, to mate.

使其互相連結，進一步來說，是繁衍。

In other words, you need to understand

換句話說，各位必須要了解的是

how ideas have sex.

這些概念是如何交配的?

I want you to imagine

希望各位可以想像一下，

how we got from making objects like this

我們是如何將畫面上的這個東西

to making objects like this.

變成像右邊這個東西。

These are both real objects.

這二個都是真實存在的東西。

One is an Acheulean hand axe from half a million years ago

一個是50萬年前阿舍利手斧，

of the kind made by Homo erectus.

由直立式猿人所製作；

The other is obviously a computer mouse.

另一個很明顯是電腦滑鼠。

They're both exactly the same size and shape to an uncanny degree.

這二個東西的大小跟形狀，相似到不可思議的境界。

I've tried to work out which is bigger,

我試著計算出這二者哪個較大，

and it's almost impossible.

但幾乎是不可能的。

And that's because they're both designed to fit the human hand.

那是因為，它們都是根據我們的手去設計的。

They're both technologies. In the end, their similarity is not that interesting.

它們都用了同樣的技術。最後，這二者的相似性就不是這麼令人感興趣了。

It just tells you they were both designed to fit the human hand.

相似性只不過是告訴各位，它們都是根據人手去設計的。

The differences are what interest me,

這二者差異性才是吸引我的地方。

because the one on the left was made to a pretty unvarying design

左邊的這個石器的設計樣貌維持了很長一段時間，

for about a million years --

大概用了一百萬年---

from one-and-a-half million years ago to half a million years ago.

約150萬年前到50萬年前這段時間在使用。

Homo erectus made the same tool

直立人猿製作這個器具

for 30,000 generations.

至少3萬個世代。

Of course there were a few changes,

當然中間可能會有一點點改變，

but tools changed slower than skeletons in those days.

但在這段時間裡，這個工具改變的速度比猿人的骨骼還要慢。

There was no progress, no innovation.

沒有進步，沒有創新。

It's an extraordinary phenomenon, but it's true.

這是一個多驚人的現象，不過這是真的。

Whereas the object on the right is obsolete after five years.

但右邊的這個東西，再過5年它就過時了。

And there's another difference too,

另一個不同點是，

which is the object on the left is made from one substance.

左邊的石器只用一種原料製成，

The object on the right is made from

右邊的滑鼠是

a confection of different substances,

用很多原料製作成的複雜產品，

from silicon and metal and plastic and so on.

像是矽、金屬、塑膠等等。

And more than that, it's a confection of different ideas,

滑鼠最不一樣的地方是，它是一個不同概念的的混合體，

the idea of plastic, the idea of a laser,

塑膠的概念，雷射光學的概念，

the idea of transistors.

電晶體的概念。

They've all been combined together in this technology.

這些概念被組合在一起成為這項科技。

And it's this combination,

這是一個結合體，

this cumulative technology, that intrigues me,

這累積的科技引起我的好奇心。

because I think it's the secret to understanding

因為我認為這其中的奧妙，

what's happening in the world.

可以用來解釋當今世界的發展。

My body's an accumulation of ideas too:

我的身體也是一種概念的累積，

the idea of skin cells, the idea of brain cells, the idea of liver cells.

皮膚細胞的概念，大腦細胞的概念，肝臟細胞的概念。

They've come together.

這些概念聚集在一起。

How does evolution do cumulative, combinatorial things?

人類的進化如何累積、組合?

Well, it uses sexual reproduction.

答案是利用了有性生殖。

In an asexual species, if you get two different mutations in different creatures,

一個無性生殖的物種，產生2個不同個體，且各為2種基因變異的結果，

a green one and a red one,

變異結果一種是綠色的，一種是紅色的，

then one has to be better than the other.

若其中一種的較能適應環境，

One goes extinct for the other to survive.

則另一種會滅絕，一種會繼續生存。

But if you have a sexual species,

但，若是個有性生殖的物種，

then it's possible for an individual

那一個個體是有可能

to inherit both mutations

從二個不同的血統中

from different lineages.

同時繼承到二邊的基因。

So what sex does is it enables the individual

因此'有性'，能使個體

to draw upon

吸收

the genetic innovations of the whole species.

整個物種的遺傳基因。

It's not confined to its own lineage.

這樣就不會只侷限於單一的血統。

What's the process that's having the same effect

既然'性'能讓生物特性進化，

in cultural evolution

那要經過怎樣的流程，

as sex is having in biological evolution?

才能讓文化的演進中有相同效果？

And I think the answer is exchange,

我想答案就是透過'交易'，

the habit of exchanging one thing for another.

透過將物品交易到另一個地方的手法。

It's a unique human feature.

這是人類特性獨特的地方。

No other animal does it.

沒有其他動物會這樣做。

You can teach them in the laboratory to do a little bit of exchange --

是可以在實驗室裡教動物一點簡單的交易手法。

and indeed there's reciprocity in other animals --

其他動物的確都會做出互惠的行為。

But the exchange of one object for another never happens.

但是將一個物品跟其他個體交換是從未發生的。

As Adam Smith said, "No man ever saw a dog

亞當斯密曾說：

make a fair exchange of a bone with another dog."

''沒人看過狗與狗公平交換骨頭。''

(Laughter)

（笑）

You can have culture without exchange.

沒有交易也會產生文化。

You can have, as it were, asexual culture.

像是所謂的無性文化（asexual culture）。

Chimpanzees, killer whales, these kinds of creatures, they have culture.

黑猩猩、殺人鯨等等，像這些哺乳類都有自己的文化。

They teach each other traditions

牠們會互相教導傳統慣例，

which are handed down from parent to offspring.

像是透過父母傳承給子女的這種方式。

In this case, chimpanzees teaching each other

舉個例，黑猩猩會互相教導

how to crack nuts with rocks.

如何用石頭敲碎核桃殼。

But the difference is

但不一樣的點在於，

that these cultures never expand, never grow,

這些文化從未擴大，從未成長，

never accumulate, never become combinatorial,

從未累積，也從來沒有組合過。

and the reason is because

其中的原因就是因為

there is no sex, as it were,

這些文化沒有'性'，

there is no exchange of ideas.

這些文化裡沒有交易的概念在。

Chimpanzee troops have different cultures in different troops.

一群黑猩猩跟另一群黑猩猩的文化會略有不同。

There's no exchange of ideas between them.

牠們之間沒有交易的概念在。

And why does exchange raise living standards?

那，為什麼交易能夠提昇生活水準？

Well, the answer came from David Ricardo in 1817.

這個問題的答案，大衛-李嘉圖在1817年時就說明了。

And here is a Stone Age version of his story,

他當時是用二個國家之間的交易情形來說明，

although he told it in terms of trade between countries.

現在我用石器時代版本的案例。

Adam takes four hours to make a spear and three hours to make an axe.

亞當做一支矛要4小時，一支斧要3小時。

Oz takes one hour to make a spear and two hours to make an axe.

奧茲做一支矛要1小時，一支斧要2小時。

So Oz is better at both spears and axes than Adam.

奧茲在矛與斧的製作速度上都優於亞當。

He doesn't need Adam.

他根本不需要亞當。

He can make his own spears and axes.

他大可自己製作矛跟斧。

Well no, because if you think about it,

但事情不是這樣的，想想看，

if Oz makes two spears and Adam make two axes,

如果奧茲做2支矛，亞當做2支斧，

and then they trade,

他們就可以交易了，

then they will each have saved an hour of work.

而且交易能使他們都少工作1個小時。

And the more they do this, the more true it's going to be,

他們做越多次，工作時數就少越多。

because the more they do this, the better Adam is going to get at making axes

因為若他們做越多次，對亞當最有利的就是只做斧頭，

and the better Oz is going to get at making spears.

而對奧茲最有利的就是只做矛。

So the gains from trade are only going to grow.

這樣一來透過交易的好處就變多了。

And this is one of the beauties of exchange,

這就是交易美妙的地方，

is it actually creates the momentum

交易居然成了

for more specialization,

專業化的原動力，

which creates the momentum for more exchange and so on.

而專業化又再驅使人做更多的交易。

Adam and Oz both saved an hour of time.

亞當跟奧茲都省下一個小時。

That is prosperity, the saving of time

用更少的時間去滿足需求，

in satisfying your needs.

這就是繁榮的象徵。

Ask yourself how long you would have to work

各位可捫心自問，

to provide for yourself

你需要工作多久

an hour of reading light this evening to read a book by.

才能換得在晚上點亮1小時的閱讀燈來看書？。

If you had to start from scratch, let's say you go out into the countryside.

假設你一無所有要從頭打拼，回到了鄉下。

You find a sheep. You kill it. You get the fat out of it.

你找到了一支羊，宰了牠，然後得到牠身上的脂肪。

You render it down. You make a candle, etc. etc.

然後你把脂肪萃取成油，做成蠟燭之類的東西。

How long is it going to take you? Quite a long time.

這件事情你要花多久時間完成？要超級久。

How long do you actually have to work

以當今在英國工作一天所得的薪水，

to earn an hour of reading light

要工作多久

if you're on the average wage in Britain today?

才能賺到點亮閱讀燈1小時的錢？

And the answer is about half a second.

答案是0.5秒。

Back in 1950,

退到1950年，

you would have had to work for eight seconds on the average wage

在那時候的薪資水準下，你必須工作8秒

to acquire that much light.

才能點亮1小時的燈。

And that's seven and a half seconds of prosperity that you've gained

所以現在你比以前多賺了7.5秒。

since 1950, as it were,

從1950年來算的確是如此。

because that's seven and a half seconds in which you can do something else,

因為多出來的這7.5秒，你可以做其他的事情。

or you can acquire another good or service.

或者你可以去換取別的商品或服務。

And back in 1880,

退到1880年，

it would have been 15 minutes

當時的薪資水準下

to earn that amount of light on the average wage.

想賺到一樣的光量就得工作15秒。

Back in 1800,

退到1800年，

you'd have had to work six hours

你必須去工作6個小時

to earn a candle that could burn for an hour.

才能賺到一支能點1小時的蠟燭。

In other words, the average person on the average wage

換句話說，1800年時平均一個人的薪水

could not afford a candle in 1800.

根本就買不起一根蠟燭。

Go back to this image of the axe and the mouse,

回到剛剛的斧頭和滑鼠，

and ask yourself: "Who made them and for who?"

你會問自己：是誰做出這些東西？又是為了誰而作？

The stone axe was made by someone for himself.

這石斧是某人為了自己而自製。

It was self-sufficiency.

這叫自給自足。

We call that poverty these days.

對這樣的生活我們稱為貧窮。

But the object on the right

但右邊這個滑鼠

was made for me by other people.

是其他人為了我而作的。

How many other people?

這些人的數量有多少？

Tens? Hundreds? Thousands?

10位？上百？上千？

You know, I think it's probably millions.

我想人數大約是數百萬。

Because you've got to include the man who grew the coffee,

因為你必須把很多人算進去--

which was brewed for the man who was on the oil rig,

像是所種的咖啡會被鑽油平台上的工人拿去泡的咖啡農；

who was drilling for oil, which was going to be made into the plastic, etc.

還有那利用工人鑽出來的油去做出塑膠的人，諸如此類。

They were all working for me,

這些人都為我工作，

to make a mouse for me.

為了我做出一個滑鼠。

And that's the way society works.

這是人類社會工作的方式。

That's what we've achieved as a species.

身為人類這個物種，這是我們已經做到的。

In the old days, if you were rich,

在很久以前的年代，如果你很有錢，

you literally had people working for you.

會有人幫你工作。

That's how you got to be rich; you employed them.

這就是你如何變有錢的；你僱用這些人。

Louis XIV had a lot of people working for him.

路易十六有一堆人幫他工作。

They made his silly outfits, like this,

這些人為他做了這件超蠢的外套。

(Laughter)

（笑）

and they did his silly hairstyles, or whatever.

這些人也幫他做了這超蠢的髮型，還有很多東西等等

He had 498 people

當時有498個人

to prepare his dinner every night.

負責幫他做晚餐。

But a modern tourist going around the palace of Versailles

但一位現代觀光客到凡爾賽遊覽，

and looking at Louis XIV's pictures,

觀賞路易十六的這幅畫，

he has 498 people doing his dinner tonight too.

這觀光客同樣也有498個人幫他準備晚餐。

They're in bistros and cafes and restaurants

這些人是在全巴黎的

and shops all over Paris,

小酒吧、咖啡店、餐廳、商店工作。

and they're all ready to serve you at an hour's notice with an excellent meal

這些人隨時都能在一個小時內

that's probably got higher quality

提供出非常精緻的餐點，

than Louis XIV even had.

這些餐點可能還比路易十六吃的還棒。

And that's what we've done, because we're all working for each other.

我們能做到這件事，就是因為我們互相工作。

We're able to draw upon specialization and exchange

我們能夠利用專業化與交易，

to raise each other's living standards.

來互相提昇生活水準。

Now, you do get other animals working for each other too.

你會發覺，有其他生物也會互相工作。

Ants are a classic example; workers work for queens and queens work for workers.

螞蟻就是典型的例子。工蟻為蟻后工作，蟻后為工蟻工作。

But there's a big difference,

但是這跟人類的差太多了，

which is that it only happens within the colony.

因為螞蟻的互相工作只限於同一個聚落裡。

There's no working for each other across the colonies.

牠們不會跨聚落的互相工作。

And the reason for that is because there's a reproductive division of labor.

另一個理由，因為螞蟻是「生殖性的分工體系」。

That is to say, they specialize with respect to reproduction.

意思是說，牠們的分工是取決於生殖能力。

The queen does it all.

繁殖就由蟻后完全負責。

In our species, we don't like doing that.

我們人類這個物種不會這樣做。

It's the one thing we insist on doing for ourselves, is reproduction.

因為我們最想要讓自己來的事情，就是繁殖。

(Laughter)

（笑）

Even in England, we don't leave reproduction to the Queen.

即使在英國，我們也不會把繁殖的工作交給女王。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

So when did this habit start?

所以這個行為是什麼時候開始的？（指互相工作）

And how long has it been going on? And what does it mean?

這行為持續多久了？這有什麼含意？

Well, I think, probably, the oldest version of this

嗯，我認為人類最古老的互相工作版本，

is probably the sexual division of labor.

應該是從性別分工開始。

But I've got no evidence for that.

但我沒有證據可以證實。

It just looks like the first thing we did

只是看起來，我們剛開始，

was work male for female and female for male.

就是男性為女性工作，女性也為男性工作。

In all hunter-gatherer societies today,

今日，在採獵者的聚落裡（以打獵和採集為生），

there's a foraging division of labor

那是一種以覓食來分工的體系，

between, on the whole, hunting males and gathering females.

大致上分為男性狩獵者和女性採集者。

It isn't always quite that simple,

當然不是都能這麼簡單地區分。

but there's a distinction between

不過這是男女之間分工的

specialized roles for males and females.

主要區分方式。

And the beauty of this system

而這種系統的美妙之處，

is that it benefits both sides.

就是男女兩邊都有受益。

The woman knows

在這個哈扎人的例子中（註：Hadza，坦桑尼亞的原住民），

that, in the Hadzas' case here --

這個女人

digging roots to share with men in exchange for meat --

知道要去挖植物根莖，以便跟男人換肉品，

she knows that all she has to do to get access to protein

她知道想獲得更多蛋白質食品，

is to dig some extra roots and trade them for meat.

就必須挖更多的根莖品去跟男人換肉。

And she doesn't have to go on an exhausting hunt

她不需要耗盡體力去打獵，

and try and kill a warthog.

或是去殺疣豬。

And the man knows that he doesn't have to do any digging

男人也知道他們不需要

to get roots.

挖土找根莖食品。

All he has to do is make sure that when he kills a warthog

他只需要確保，當他獵捕到疣豬時，

it's big enough to share some.

這隻疣豬夠大有辦法分給別人。

And so both sides raise each other's standards of living

所以這男女雙方都因為性別分工，

through the sexual division of labor.

而提昇彼此的生活水準。

When did this happen? We don't know, but it's possible

人類什麼時候開始這樣做？我們不知道，但是

that Neanderthals didn't do this.

尼安德塔人就沒這樣做。

They were a highly cooperative species.

牠們是種高度合作的物種。

They were a highly intelligent species.

他們是有高度智能的物種。

Their brains on average, by the end, were bigger than yours and mine

到目前為止，他們的大腦

in this room today.

比這間會議室的你我都還要大。

They were imaginative. They buried their dead.

牠們很有想像力。牠們會火葬死者。

They had language, probably,

牠們可能用語言溝通，

because we know they had the FOXP2 gene of the same kind as us,

因為我們跟牠們都有一種FOXP2基因，

which was discovered here in Oxford.

是由牛津大學研究發現的。

And so it looks like they probably had linguistic skills.

這個基因讓牠們有語言能力。

They were brilliant people. I'm not dissing the Neanderthals.

牠們是種傑出的人種。我並不是輕視尼安德塔人。

But there's no evidence

但是，真的沒有任何證據

of a sexual division of labor.

顯示牠們有男女分工的跡象。

There's no evidence of gathering behavior by females.

沒任何證據說明女性就負責採集。

It looks like the females were cooperative hunters with the men.

看起來像是女性會跟男性一起出外打獵。

And the other thing there's no evidence for

另一件事就是，沒有證據顯示

is exchange between groups,

牠們群體之間會做交易。

because the objects that you find in Neanderthal remains,

因為從尼安德塔人留下的物品發現，

the tools they made,

牠們製作的器具，

are always made from local materials.

原料都是從當地取得的。

For example, in the Caucasus

舉例來說，在高加索山那一帶，

there's a site where you find local Neanderthal tools.

附近發現了尼安德塔人的物品。

They're always made from local chert.

牠們用當地的燧石製作。

In the same valley there are modern human remains

在同一個山洞裡，也有現代人的遺物，

from about the same date, 30,000 years ago,

幾乎同一個時段，大約三萬年前。

and some of those are from local chert,

現代人所遺留下來的物品有些是用燧石製作，

but more -- but many of them are made

但是有更多的物品

from obsidian from a long way away.

是用非常非常遙遠的地區才有的黑耀石。

And when human beings began

當人類開始

moving objects around like this,

到處轉移這些物品時，

it was evidence that they were exchanging between groups.

也證明了群體之間會作交易。

Trade is 10 times as old as farming.

地球上出現交易的時間，比農耕早了10倍。

People forget that. People think of trade as a modern thing.

但我們都忘了。我們都以為交易是現代的產物。

Exchange between groups has been going on

群體之間的交易行為，

for a hundred thousand years.

早在十萬年前就開始了。

And the earliest evidence for it crops up

甚至還發現非洲的某些地方，

somewhere between 80 and 120,000 years ago in Africa,

在80萬到120萬年前就有這種跡象，

when you see obsidian and jasper and other things

發現黑耀石和碧玉和其他礦石，

moving long distances in Ethiopia.

都是遠從衣索匹亞運來的。

You also see seashells --

你也能發現貝殼--

as discovered by a team here in Oxford --

由牛津的研究團隊所發現--

moving 125 miles inland

從阿爾及利亞的地中海地區

from the Mediterranean in Algeria.

被送到125英哩遠的內陸地區（約201公里）。

And that's evidence that people

這也顯示人們

have started exchanging between groups.

開始和不同群體做交易。

And that will have led to specialization.

這將帶動專業化的行為。

How do you know that long-distance movement

要如何分辨這些物品的長距離移動是因為交易，

means trade rather than migration?

而不是遷徙所導致？

Well, you look at modern hunter gatherers like aboriginals,

嗯，像澳洲土著這種採獵者，

who quarried for stone axes at a place called Mount Isa,

他們從伊莎山開採石斧用的礦石（註：位於澳洲東北）。

which was a quarry owned by the Kalkadoon tribe.

一個叫卡卡度的部落擁有一個開採場（註：Kalkadoon）。

They traded them with their neighbors

這部落的人會用礦石來和鄰居做交易，

for things like stingray barbs,

像是交易魟魚的尾刺。

and the consequence was that stone axes

這尾刺裝在石斧上，

ended up over a large part of Australia.

結果這種石斧成為澳洲各地最常見的器具。

So long-distance movement of tools

所以這種器具的長距離移動

is a sign of trade, not migration.

就是交易的徵兆，而非移民導致。

What happens when you cut people off from exchange,

如果切斷人與人的交易行為會怎樣？

from the ability to exchange and specialize?

切斷交易和專業化會怎樣？

And the answer is that

答案是

not only do you slow down technological progress,

不只是科技的進步會變得緩慢，

you can actually throw it into reverse.

事實上還有可能退步。

An example is Tasmania.

舉一個塔斯曼尼亞島的例子（澳洲南部的小島）。

When the sea level rose and Tasmania became an island 10,000 years ago,

塔斯曼尼亞島在一萬年前，海平面上升後，

the people on it not only experienced

居住在上面的人，

slower progress than people on the mainland,

發展的進度還不只是慢於大陸上的人，

they actually experienced regress.

實際上他們還開始退步。

They gave up the ability to make stone tools

他們放棄了用骨頭做工具的能力，

and fishing equipment and clothing

還有製作釣魚器具、縫紉，

because the population of about 4,000 people

因為上面僅僅四千人的人口，

was simply not large enough

沒有足夠數量

to maintain the specialized skills

能維持專業性技能，

necessary to keep the technology they had.

以便成為他們的技術。

It's as if the people in this room were plonked on a desert island.

若現在這房間裡有些人被扔到荒島上，

How many of the things in our pockets

那這些人口袋裡的東西，

could we continue to make after 10,000 years?

有多少能夠在一萬年後還能持續製作的？

It didn't happen in Tierra del Fuego --

這種事情就沒發生在火地島上（註：位於阿根廷南方）。

similar island, similar people.

類似的島嶼，類似的人。

The reason: because Tierra del Fuego

理由是因為

is separated from South America by a much narrower straight,

火地島跟南美大陸只相隔了一條非常狹窄的海峽。

and there was trading contact across that straight

上面的居民跨過海峽做交易接觸

throughout 10,000 years.

整整有一萬年的歷史。

The Tasmanians were isolated.

而塔斯曼尼亞島就完全是個孤島。

Go back to this image again

讓我們再回到這張圖片，

and ask yourself, not only who made it and for who,

問問自己，不只是這東西是誰做的和為誰做，

but who knew how to make it.

還要問，誰知道怎麼做。

In the case of the stone axe, the man who made it knew how to make it.

在這個石斧的例子中，這個人知道如何製作這個石斧。

But who knows how to make a computer mouse?

但是現在誰知道滑鼠要怎麼製作？

Nobody, literally nobody.

沒人，基本上沒人知道。

There is nobody on the planet who knows how to make a computer mouse.

在這個地球上真的沒人知道滑鼠要怎麼製作。

I mean this quite seriously.

我是很嚴肅地講這件事情。

The president of the computer mouse company doesn't know.

就連滑鼠公司的總裁都不會知道。

He just knows how to run a company.

他只知道如何經營公司。

The person on the assembly line doesn't know

組裝線上的人也不知道，

because he doesn't know how to drill an oil well

因為他不知道如何鑽油井，

to get oil out to make plastic, and so on.

然後把石油製作成塑膠，諸如此類的東西。

We all know little bits, but none of us knows the whole.

我們都只了解一小部分，但是沒人知道從頭到尾的製作方式。

I am of course quoting from a famous essay

我要引用一篇非常有名的文章，

by Leonard Read, the economist in the 1950s,

由經濟學家李奧那多-里德，在1950年所寫的（註：Leonard Read），

called "I, Pencil"

這文章叫'我，鉛筆'（註：I, Pencil）。

in which he wrote about how a pencil came to be made,

文章內容主要是說，一支鉛筆被製造的過程，

and how nobody knows even how to make a pencil,

還有如何讓人知道筆的製造過程，

because the people who assemble it don't know how to mine graphite,

因為負責組裝的人不會知道如何採石墨礦。

and they don't know how to fell trees and that kind of thing.

他們也不會知道如何砍樹等等之類事情。

And what we've done in human society,

但是我們透過人類社會中的

through exchange and specialization,

交易和專業化，

is we've created

讓我們能有

the ability to do things that we don't even understand.

不懂整套流程也能做出物品的能力。

It's not the same with language.

這跟語言不一樣。

With language we have to transfer ideas

我們得把腦中的概念轉換成語言

that we understand with each other.

才能了解彼此的概念。

But with technology,

但是在科技上，

we can actually do things that are beyond our capabilities.

我們可以做出超出我們產能的物品。

We've gone beyond the capacity of the human mind

人類的思維能力已經被我們

to an extraordinary degree.

超越到一個不可思議的程度。

And by the way,

另一方面，

that's one of the reasons that I'm not interested

這也是我沒有興趣去爭論有關'智商'的

in the debate about I.Q.,

理由之一。

about whether some groups have higher I.Q.s than other groups.

像是某些人的智商比某些人高的這種問題。

It's completely irrelevant.

這完全不實際。

What's relevant to a society

跟我們人類社會相關的事情應該是

is how well people are communicating their ideas,

人們要如何好好傳遞腦中的概念，

and how well they're cooperating,

還有如何讓這些概念互相合作，

not how clever the individuals are.

而非是一個人有多聰明。

So we've created something called the collective brain.

我們已經創造出所謂的'集體大腦'（collective brain）。

We're just the nodes in the network.

我們都是在網絡上的一個節點。

We're the neurons in this brain.

在這大腦中我們只是其中一個神經元。

It's the interchange of ideas,

在裡面會做概念的交換，

the meeting and mating of ideas between them,

然後兩兩會做結合和交配繁衍，

that is causing technological progress,

這就會引起技術的進步，

incrementally, bit by bit.

逐步地，一點一滴地進步。

However, bad things happen.

然而，不好的事情就發生了。

And in the future, as we go forward,

當我們往未來邁進時，

we will, of course, experience terrible things.

當然會遇到一些挫敗。

There will be wars; there will be depressions;

可能會發生戰爭、可能會經濟蕭條、

there will be natural disasters.

可能會有天然災害。

Awful things will happen in this century, I'm absolutely sure.

這個世紀一定會發生一些可怕的事情，這我可以保證。

But I'm also sure that, because of the connections people are making,

但我同時也可以保證，人與人的連結

and the ability of ideas

會讓概念結合與交配繁衍的能力，

to meet and to mate

達到

as never before,

前所未有的境界。

I'm also sure

我也保證

that technology will advance,

科技將會進步，

and therefore living standards will advance.

因此我們的生活水準會再上升。

Because through the cloud,

透過雲端科技、

through crowd sourcing,

透過眾包（註：企業利用網路分配工作、發現創意等等）、

through the bottom-up world that we've created,

透過這個由上而下的世界，

where not just the elites but everybody

我們創造的不只是菁英，

is able to have their ideas

任何人都能將他們腦中的概念

and make them meet and mate,

互相結合並交配繁衍，

we are surely accelerating the rate of innovation.

我們一定會加快創新的速度。

Thank you.

感謝各位的聆聽。

(Applause)

（掌聲）