When ideas have sex | Matt Ridley

Prevoditelj: Matija Stepic Recezent: Antonija Burcul

When I was a student here in Oxford in the 1970s,

Kad sam bio student ovdje na Oxfordu sedamdesetih,

the future of the world was bleak.

budućnost svijeta bila je mračna.

The population explosion was unstoppable.

Eksplozija populacije bila je nezaustavljiva.

Global famine was inevitable.

Globalna glad bila je neizbježna.

A cancer epidemic caused by chemicals in the environment

Epidemija raka uzrokovana kemikalijama u okolišu

was going to shorten our lives.

skratila bi naše živote.

The acid rain was falling on the forests.

Kisele kiše padale su na šume.

The desert was advancing by a mile or two a year.

Pustinje su se širile milju ili dvije godišnje.

The oil was running out,

Ponestajalo je nafte.

and a nuclear winter would finish us off.

A nuklearna zima bi nas skončala.

None of those things happened,

Ništa od toga nije se dogodilo.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

and astonishingly, if you look at what actually happened in my lifetime,

I zapanjujuće, ako pogledate što se zapravo dogodilo za vrijeme mog života,

the average per-capita income

prosječni dohodak po glavi stanovnika

of the average person on the planet,

prosječne osobe na planeti,

in real terms, adjusted for inflation,

u realnim uvjetima, prilagođen inflacijom

has tripled.

se utrostručio.

Lifespan is up by 30 percent in my lifetime.

Životni vijek se povećao za 30% tijekom mog života.

Child mortality is down by two-thirds.

Stopa smrtnosti djece je pala za dvije trećine.

Per-capita food production

Proizvodnja hrane po glavi stanovnika

is up by a third.

se povećala za trećinu.

And all this at a time when the population has doubled.

I sve to u vrijeme kada se populacija udvostručila.

How did we achieve that, whether you think it's a good thing or not?

Kako smo to ostvarili -- nebitno mislite li da je to dobra ili loša stvar --

How did we achieve that?

Kako smo to ostvarili?

How did we become

Kako smo postali

the only species

jedina vrsta

that becomes more prosperous

koja postajući brojnija,

as it becomes more populous?

postaje naprednija?

The size of the blob in this graph represents the size of the population,

Veličina mjehura u ovom grafu predstavlja veličinu populacije.

and the level of the graph

Dok razina grafa

represents GDP per capita.

predstavlja BDP po stanovniku.

I think to answer that question

Da bismo odgovorili na to pitanje, mislim

you need to understand

da morate razumjeti

how human beings bring together their brains

kako ljudska bića spajaju svoje mozgove

and enable their ideas to combine and recombine,

i omogućavaju idejama da se kombiniraju i rekombiniraju.

to meet and, indeed, to mate.

da se susreću i, zaista, pare.

In other words, you need to understand

Drugim riječima, potrebno je da razumijete

how ideas have sex.

kako se ideje seksaju.

I want you to imagine

Želim da zamislite

how we got from making objects like this

kako smo dospjeli od izrade ovakvih predmeta

to making objects like this.

do izrade predmeta kao što je ovaj.

These are both real objects.

Oba predmeta su stvarni predmeti

One is an Acheulean hand axe from half a million years ago

Jedna je Acheuleanska ručna sjekira stara pola milijuna godina

of the kind made by Homo erectus.

izrađena od strane Homo erectusa.

The other is obviously a computer mouse.

Druga je očigledno računalni miš.

They're both exactly the same size and shape to an uncanny degree.

Oni su točno iste veličine i oblika do zapanjujuće razine.

I've tried to work out which is bigger,

Pokušao sam skužiti koji je veći,

and it's almost impossible.

skoro pa je nemoguće.

And that's because they're both designed to fit the human hand.

To je stoga što su oba dizajnirana da stanu u ljudsku šaku.

They're both technologies. In the end, their similarity is not that interesting.

Oba su tehnologije. Na kraju, njihova sličnost nije toliko zanimljiva.

It just tells you they were both designed to fit the human hand.

To vam samo govori da su oba dizajnirana da stanu u ljudsku šaku.

The differences are what interest me,

Razlike su ono što me zanima.

because the one on the left was made to a pretty unvarying design

Zato što ovaj na lijevoj strani oko milijun godina

for about a million years --

nije mjenjao izgled -

from one-and-a-half million years ago to half a million years ago.

od prije milijun i pol godina do prije pola milijuna godina.

Homo erectus made the same tool

Homo erectus je izrađivao isti alat

for 30,000 generations.

kroz 30,000 generacija.

Of course there were a few changes,

Naravno, dogodile su se neke promjene,

but tools changed slower than skeletons in those days.

no alati su se mjenjali sporije od kostura tih dana.

There was no progress, no innovation.

Nije bilo napretka ni inovacije.

It's an extraordinary phenomenon, but it's true.

To je nevjerojatan fenomen, ali istinit.

Whereas the object on the right is obsolete after five years.

Dok su predmeti s desne strane zastarjeli nakon pet godina.

And there's another difference too,

Postoji i druga razlika također,

which is the object on the left is made from one substance.

predmet s lijeve strane je izrađen od jedne tvari.

The object on the right is made from

Predmet zdesna je izrađen

a confection of different substances,

od kombinacije različitih tvari,

from silicon and metal and plastic and so on.

od silicija i metala do plastike itd.

And more than that, it's a confection of different ideas,

I više od toga, to je skup različitih ideja,

the idea of plastic, the idea of a laser,

ideja plastike, ideja lasera,

the idea of transistors.

ideja tranzistora.

They've all been combined together in this technology.

Sve su one povezane u ovoj tehnologiji.

And it's this combination,

I to je ova kombinacija,

this cumulative technology, that intrigues me,

ova kumulativna tehnologija, koje me intrigira.

because I think it's the secret to understanding

Jer mislim da je u tome tajna razumijevanja

what's happening in the world.

onoga što se događa u svijetu.

My body's an accumulation of ideas too:

Moje tijelo je akumulacija ideja također,

the idea of skin cells, the idea of brain cells, the idea of liver cells.

ideja stanica kože, ideja moždanih stanica, ideja stanica jetre.

They've come together.

One su se spojile.

How does evolution do cumulative, combinatorial things?

Kako evolucija izvodi kumulativne, kombinirane stvari?

Well, it uses sexual reproduction.

Pa, koristi seksualnu reprodukciju.

In an asexual species, if you get two different mutations in different creatures,

Kod aseksualnih vrsta, ako dobijete dvije različite mutacije na različitim stvorenjima,

a green one and a red one,

zelenu i crvenu,

then one has to be better than the other.

onda jedna mora biti bolja od druge.

One goes extinct for the other to survive.

Jedna izumre kako bi druga preživjela.

But if you have a sexual species,

No ukoliko imate seksualnu vrstu,

then it's possible for an individual

onda je moguće da pojedinac

to inherit both mutations

nasljedi obje mutacije

from different lineages.

od različitih strana.

So what sex does is it enables the individual

Dakle, što seks čini je da omogućava pojedincu

to draw upon

da iskoristi

the genetic innovations of the whole species.

genetske inovacije cijele vrste.

It's not confined to its own lineage.

Nije ograničen na svoju lozu.

What's the process that's having the same effect

Koji proces ima isti učinak

in cultural evolution

u kulturnoj evoluciji

as sex is having in biological evolution?

kao što seks ima u biološkoj evoluciji?

And I think the answer is exchange,

Smatram da je odgovor razmjena,

the habit of exchanging one thing for another.

navika razmjene jedne stvari za drugu.

It's a unique human feature.

To je jedinstvena ljudska odlika.

No other animal does it.

Ni jedna druga životinja ju nema.

You can teach them in the laboratory to do a little bit of exchange --

U laboratoriju ih možete naučiti da pomalo razmjenjuju.

and indeed there's reciprocity in other animals --

I zaista postoji reciprocitet kod drugih životinja.

But the exchange of one object for another never happens.

Ali razmjena jednog predmeta za drugi nikada ne postoji.

As Adam Smith said, "No man ever saw a dog

Kao što je Adam Smith rekao, "Još nitko nije vidio

make a fair exchange of a bone with another dog."

psa kako pravedno razmjenjuje kost sa drugim psom."

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

You can have culture without exchange.

Možete imati kulturu bez razmjene.

You can have, as it were, asexual culture.

Također možete imati i aseksualnu kulturu.

Chimpanzees, killer whales, these kinds of creatures, they have culture.

Čimpanze, kitovi ubojice, takva stvorenja imaju kulturu.

They teach each other traditions

Jedni druge uče tradicijama

which are handed down from parent to offspring.

koje se prenose sa roditelja na potomke.

In this case, chimpanzees teaching each other

U ovom slučaju, čimpanze uče jedni druge

how to crack nuts with rocks.

kako razbijati orahe kamenjem.

But the difference is

Ali razlika je u tome

that these cultures never expand, never grow,

što se ove kulture nikad ne šire, ne rastu,

never accumulate, never become combinatorial,

ne akumuliraju, nikada ne postanu proizvodne.

and the reason is because

A razlog tome je što

there is no sex, as it were,

nema seksa, na neki način,

there is no exchange of ideas.

nema razmjene ideja.

Chimpanzee troops have different cultures in different troops.

Porodice čimpanzi imaju različite kulture u različitim porodicama.

There's no exchange of ideas between them.

Među njima nema razmjene ideja.

And why does exchange raise living standards?

A zašto razmjena podiže životni standard?

Well, the answer came from David Ricardo in 1817.

Pa, odgovor je dao David Ricardo, 1817. godine.

And here is a Stone Age version of his story,

Postoji verzija ove priče iz kamenog doba,

although he told it in terms of trade between countries.

makar se njegova odnosi na međudržavnu razmjenu.

Adam takes four hours to make a spear and three hours to make an axe.

Adamu je potrebno 4 sata da napravi koplje, a 3 da napravi sjekiru.

Oz takes one hour to make a spear and two hours to make an axe.

Ozu je potreban jedan sat da napravi koplje i dva sata za sjekiru.

So Oz is better at both spears and axes than Adam.

Znači Oz je u obje stvari bolji od Adama.

He doesn't need Adam.

Adam mu nije potreban.

He can make his own spears and axes.

Može sam napraviti svoja koplja i sjekire.

Well no, because if you think about it,

Ustvari ne. Jer ako razmislite,

if Oz makes two spears and Adam make two axes,

ako Oz napravi dva koplja, a Adam dvije sjekire,

and then they trade,

i onda se mijenjaju,

then they will each have saved an hour of work.

svaki će uštedjeti sat vremena posla.

And the more they do this, the more true it's going to be,

Što više to rade, ovo će biti točnije.

because the more they do this, the better Adam is going to get at making axes

Jer što više to rade, Adam će biti bolji u izradi sjekira,

and the better Oz is going to get at making spears.

a Oz će napredovati u izradi koplja.

So the gains from trade are only going to grow.

Znači korist od razmjene će samo rasti.

And this is one of the beauties of exchange,

I to je jedna od ljepota razmjene,

is it actually creates the momentum

jer ona zapravo stvara priliku

for more specialization,

za još više specijalizacije,

which creates the momentum for more exchange and so on.

koja stvara priliku za još više razmjene i tako dalje.

Adam and Oz both saved an hour of time.

I Adam i Oz uštede po sat vremena.

That is prosperity, the saving of time

To je napredak, ušteda vremena

in satisfying your needs.

u zadovoljavanju potreba.

Ask yourself how long you would have to work

Zapitajte se koliko dugo biste morali raditi

to provide for yourself

da biste sebi omogućili

an hour of reading light this evening to read a book by.

sat vremena svjetla za čitanje knjige večeras.

If you had to start from scratch, let's say you go out into the countryside.

Kad bi morali početi od nule, recimo morate otići u prirodu.

You find a sheep. You kill it. You get the fat out of it.

Naći ovcu. Ubiti je. Uzeti njenu mast.

You render it down. You make a candle, etc. etc.

Rastopiti ju. Napraviti svijeću, itd.

How long is it going to take you? Quite a long time.

Koliko će vam vremena trebati za to? Prilično.

How long do you actually have to work

Koliko zaista morate raditi

to earn an hour of reading light

da biste zaradili sat vremena svjetla za čitanje,

if you're on the average wage in Britain today?

ako imate prosječnu britansku plaću danas?

And the answer is about half a second.

Odgovor je oko pola sekunde.

Back in 1950,

Pedesetih bi

you would have had to work for eight seconds on the average wage

bilo potrebno raditi osam sekundi sa prosječnom plaćom

to acquire that much light.

da biste dobili toliko svjetla.

And that's seven and a half seconds of prosperity that you've gained

To je sedam i pol sekundi napretka koje ste dobili.

since 1950, as it were,

Od 1950., recimo.

because that's seven and a half seconds in which you can do something else,

Jer to je sedam i pol sekundi u toku kojih možete raditi nešto drugo.

or you can acquire another good or service.

Ili možete nabaviti drugu stvar ili uslugu.

And back in 1880,

A davne 1880.,

it would have been 15 minutes

bilo je potrebno 15 minuta

to earn that amount of light on the average wage.

da se zaradi tolika količina svjetla, sa prosječnom plaćom.

Back in 1800,

U devetnaestom stoljeću

you'd have had to work six hours

morali ste raditi šest sati

to earn a candle that could burn for an hour.

da biste zaradili svijeću koja gori sat vremena.

In other words, the average person on the average wage

Drugim riječima, prosječna osoba sa prosječnom plaćom

could not afford a candle in 1800.

nije si mogla priuštiti svijeću 1800.

Go back to this image of the axe and the mouse,

Vratite se na ovu sliku sjekire i miša,

and ask yourself: "Who made them and for who?"

i zapitajte se: "Tko ih je napravio i za koga?"

The stone axe was made by someone for himself.

Kamenu sjekiru je netko napravio za sebe.

It was self-sufficiency.

To je bila nezavisnost.

We call that poverty these days.

Ovih dana to zovemo siromaštvo.

But the object on the right

Ali predmet s desne strane

was made for me by other people.

su za mene napravili drugi ljudi.

How many other people?

Koliko drugih ljudi?

Tens? Hundreds? Thousands?

Desetine? Stotine? Tisuće?

You know, I think it's probably millions.

Znate, mislim da su vjerojatno milijuni.

Because you've got to include the man who grew the coffee,

Jer morate uračunati čovjeka koji je uzgojio kavu,

which was brewed for the man who was on the oil rig,

koja je pripremljena za čovjeka na naftnoj bušotini,

who was drilling for oil, which was going to be made into the plastic, etc.

koji je vadio naftu koja će se pretvoriti u plastiku, itd.

They were all working for me,

Svi su radili za mene,

to make a mouse for me.

kako bi meni napravili miša.

And that's the way society works.

I to je način na koji funkcionira društvo.

That's what we've achieved as a species.

To smo, kao vrsta, postigli.

In the old days, if you were rich,

U stara vremena, ako ste bili bogati,

you literally had people working for you.

doslovno ste imali ljude koji su radili za vas.

That's how you got to be rich; you employed them.

Tako ste postajali bogati; zapošljavali ste ih.

Louis XIV had a lot of people working for him.

Luj XIV je imao puno ljudi koji su radili za njega.

They made his silly outfits, like this,

Pravili su smiješnu odjeću, kao ovu.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

and they did his silly hairstyles, or whatever.

I pravili su mu smiješne frizure, ili štogod.

He had 498 people

Imao je 498 ljudi koji

to prepare his dinner every night.

su mu spremali večeru svaku večer.

But a modern tourist going around the palace of Versailles

Ali moderni turist koji hoda okolo po Versaillesu

and looking at Louis XIV's pictures,

i gleda slike Luja XIV

he has 498 people doing his dinner tonight too.

također ima 498 ljudi koji mu pripremaju večeru.

They're in bistros and cafes and restaurants

Oni su u bistroima i kafićima i restoranima

and shops all over Paris,

i prodavaonicama širom Pariza.

and they're all ready to serve you at an hour's notice with an excellent meal

I svi su spremni da vas u roku od sat vremena usluže odličnim jelima

that's probably got higher quality

koja su vjerojatno kvalitetnija

than Louis XIV even had.

od bilo kojih Lujevih.

And that's what we've done, because we're all working for each other.

I to smo postigli, jer svi radimo jedni za druge.

We're able to draw upon specialization and exchange

U mogućnosti smo napredovati iz usavršavanja i razmjene

to raise each other's living standards.

kako bismo jedni drugima podigli životni standard.

Now, you do get other animals working for each other too.

Sad, imate i druge životinje koje rade jedne za druge.

Ants are a classic example; workers work for queens and queens work for workers.

Mravi su klasičan primjer; radnici rade za maticu, matica radi za radnike.

But there's a big difference,

Ali postoji velika razlika,

which is that it only happens within the colony.

a to je da se to događa samo unutar kolonije.

There's no working for each other across the colonies.

Među kolonijama oni ne rade jedni za druge.

And the reason for that is because there's a reproductive division of labor.

Razlog tomu je reproduktivna podjela rada.

That is to say, they specialize with respect to reproduction.

To znači da se specijaliziraju u odnosu na reprodukciju.

The queen does it all.

Matica radi sve.

In our species, we don't like doing that.

Mi u našoj vrsti to ne volimo.

It's the one thing we insist on doing for ourselves, is reproduction.

Reprodukcija je jedna stvar koju volimo raditi za sebe.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Even in England, we don't leave reproduction to the Queen.

Čak i u Engleskoj ne prepuštamo reprodukciju kraljici.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

So when did this habit start?

Znači, kad je počela ova navika?

And how long has it been going on? And what does it mean?

I koliko dugo traje? I što znači?

Well, I think, probably, the oldest version of this

Pa, ja mislim da je vjerojatno najstarija verzija ovoga

is probably the sexual division of labor.

podjela posla na seksualnoj osnovi.

But I've got no evidence for that.

Ali nemam dokaza za to.

It just looks like the first thing we did

Samo izgleda kao da je prva stvar koju smo napravili

was work male for female and female for male.

to da muškarci rade za žene i žene za muškarce.

In all hunter-gatherer societies today,

U svim današnjim lovačko-sakupljačkim društvima

there's a foraging division of labor

postoji hranidbena podjela rada

between, on the whole, hunting males and gathering females.

između, generalno, muškaraca koji love i žena koje sakupljaju.

It isn't always quite that simple,

Nije uvijek baš tako jednostavno.

but there's a distinction between

Ali postoji razlika između

specialized roles for males and females.

specijaliziranih uloga između muškaraca i žena.

And the beauty of this system

A ljepota ovog sistema je

is that it benefits both sides.

u tome što pogoduje objema stranama.

The woman knows

Žena zna,

that, in the Hadzas' case here --

u slučaju Hadze ovdje -

digging roots to share with men in exchange for meat --

iskopavaju korijenje kako bi ih podijelile s muškarcima u zamjenu za meso -

she knows that all she has to do to get access to protein

ona zna da, da bi došla do proteina

is to dig some extra roots and trade them for meat.

mora samo iskopati malo više korijenja i razmjeniti ih za meso.

And she doesn't have to go on an exhausting hunt

I ne mora ići u iscrpljujući lov

and try and kill a warthog.

i pokuša ubiti divlju svinju.

And the man knows that he doesn't have to do any digging

A muškarac zna da ne mora kopati

to get roots.

kako bi došao do korijenja.

All he has to do is make sure that when he kills a warthog

On se samo treba pobrinuti da je svinja koju ubije

it's big enough to share some.

dovoljno velika za podjelu.

And so both sides raise each other's standards of living

Tako obje strane podižu životni standard jedna drugoj,

through the sexual division of labor.

putem seksualne podjele rada.

When did this happen? We don't know, but it's possible

Kad se ovo dogodilo? Ne znamo, ali je moguće

that Neanderthals didn't do this.

da neandertalci ovo nisu radili.

They were a highly cooperative species.

Oni su kao vrsta puno surađivali.

They were a highly intelligent species.

Bili su jako inteligentni.

Their brains on average, by the end, were bigger than yours and mine

Njihovi mozgovi su u prosjeku bili veći od vašeg

in this room today.

i mog danas.

They were imaginative. They buried their dead.

Bili su maštoviti. Sahranjivali su mrtve.

They had language, probably,

Vjerojatno su imali jezik,

because we know they had the FOXP2 gene of the same kind as us,

jer znamo da su imali gen FOXP2 iste vrste kao i mi,

which was discovered here in Oxford.

koji je otkriven ovdje u Oxfordu.

And so it looks like they probably had linguistic skills.

I izgleda da su vjerojatno imali lingvističke vještine.

They were brilliant people. I'm not dissing the Neanderthals.

Bili su briljantni ljudi. Ne podcjenjujem neandertalce.

But there's no evidence

Ali ne postoje dokazi

of a sexual division of labor.

seksualne podjele rada.

There's no evidence of gathering behavior by females.

Ne postoje dokazi sakupljačkog ponašanja žena.

It looks like the females were cooperative hunters with the men.

Izgleda da su žene bile kooperativni lovci sa muškarcima.

And the other thing there's no evidence for

A druga stvar za koju ne postoje dokazi

is exchange between groups,

je međugrupna razmjena.

because the objects that you find in Neanderthal remains,

Zato jer predmeti koje nađete u ostatcima neandertalaca,

the tools they made,

alati koje su pravili,

are always made from local materials.

uvijek su izrađeni od lokalnih materijala.

For example, in the Caucasus

Na primjer, na Kavkazu

there's a site where you find local Neanderthal tools.

postoji mjesto gdje možete naći lokalne alate neandertalaca.

They're always made from local chert.

Uvijek su izrađeni od lokalnog kamena.

In the same valley there are modern human remains

U istoj dolini postoje ostatci modernog čovjeka

from about the same date, 30,000 years ago,

iz otprilike istog perioda, prije 30,000 godina.

and some of those are from local chert,

I neki od njih su od lokalnog kamena,

but more -- but many of them are made

ali više -- mnogo njih je

from obsidian from a long way away.

od opsidijana s jako udaljenog područja.

And when human beings began

Kad su ljudska bića počela

moving objects around like this,

premještati ovakve predmete uokolo,

it was evidence that they were exchanging between groups.

to je bio dokaz da je postojala razmjena između grupa.

Trade is 10 times as old as farming.

Razmjena je 10 puta starija od poljoprivrede.

People forget that. People think of trade as a modern thing.

Ljudi to zaboravljaju. Ljudi misle da je trgovina suvremena stvar.

Exchange between groups has been going on

Razmjena između grupa se odvija

for a hundred thousand years.

stotinama tisuća godina.

And the earliest evidence for it crops up

A rani dokaz za to se pojavljuje

somewhere between 80 and 120,000 years ago in Africa,

negdje između 80 i 120,000 godina prije u Africi,

when you see obsidian and jasper and other things

kada vidite da opsidijan, jaspis i druge stvari

moving long distances in Ethiopia.

prelaze velike udaljenosti u Etiopiji.

You also see seashells --

Također vidite morske školjke --

as discovered by a team here in Oxford --

kao što je otkrio i jedan tim ovdje u Oxfordu --

moving 125 miles inland

koje putuju 200 kilometara u unutrašnjost

from the Mediterranean in Algeria.

sa Mediterana u Alžir.

And that's evidence that people

I to je dokaz da su ljudi

have started exchanging between groups.

započeli razmjenu između grupa.

And that will have led to specialization.

I to će dovesti do specijalizacije.

How do you know that long-distance movement

Kako znate da putovanje prema udaljenim destinacijama

means trade rather than migration?

znači razmjenu prije nego migraciju?

Well, you look at modern hunter gatherers like aboriginals,

Pa, pogledate moderne lovce sakupljače kao što su Aboridžini,

who quarried for stone axes at a place called Mount Isa,

koji kopaju kamen za sjekire na planini Isa,

which was a quarry owned by the Kalkadoon tribe.

a to je kamenolom koji drži pleme Kalkadoon.

They traded them with their neighbors

Mjenjali su se sa susjedima

for things like stingray barbs,

za predmete kao što su strijele od ražina repa.

and the consequence was that stone axes

A posljedica toga je da su kamene sjekire

ended up over a large part of Australia.

završile na većem dijelu Australije.

So long-distance movement of tools

Dakle, kretanje alata udaljenim krajevima

is a sign of trade, not migration.

je znak trgovine, a ne migracije

What happens when you cut people off from exchange,

Što se događa kada ljudima uskratite razmjenu,

from the ability to exchange and specialize?

od mogućnosti razmjene i specijalizacije?

And the answer is that

Odgovor je,

not only do you slow down technological progress,

ne samo da usporite tehnološki napredak,

you can actually throw it into reverse.

nego ga možete i unazaditi.

An example is Tasmania.

Primjer je Tasmanija.

When the sea level rose and Tasmania became an island 10,000 years ago,

Kad se nivo mora podigao, i Tasmanija je postala otok, prije 10,000 godina

the people on it not only experienced

ljudi na otoku, ne samo da su iskusili

slower progress than people on the mainland,

sporiji napredak od ljudi na kopnu,

they actually experienced regress.

nego su ustvari nazadovali.

They gave up the ability to make stone tools

Izgubili su sposobnost izrade alata od kostiju

and fishing equipment and clothing

te opreme za pecanje i odijevanje

because the population of about 4,000 people

zato jer populacija od negdje 4,000 ljudi

was simply not large enough

jednostavno nije bila dovoljno velika

to maintain the specialized skills

da održi specijalizirane vještine

necessary to keep the technology they had.

koje su potrebne da se zadrži tehnologija koju su imali.

It's as if the people in this room were plonked on a desert island.

To je kao da se ljude iz ove prostorije stavi na pusti otok.

How many of the things in our pockets

Koliko stvari iz naših džepova

could we continue to make after 10,000 years?

bi mogli nastaviti proizvoditi nakon 10,000 godina?

It didn't happen in Tierra del Fuego --

To se nije dogodilo u Tierri del Fuego --

similar island, similar people.

sličan otok, slični ljudi.

The reason: because Tierra del Fuego

Razlog je taj što je otok Tierra del Fuego

is separated from South America by a much narrower straight,

odvojen od Južne Amerike mnogo užim prolazom.

and there was trading contact across that straight

Postojala je trgovinska veza duž prolaza

throughout 10,000 years.

tokom 10,000 godina.

The Tasmanians were isolated.

Tasmanijanci su bili izolirani

Go back to this image again

Vratite se ponovno na ovu sliku

and ask yourself, not only who made it and for who,

i zapitajte se, ne samo tko ju je napravio i za koga,

but who knew how to make it.

već tko je znao kako to napraviti.

In the case of the stone axe, the man who made it knew how to make it.

U slučaju kamene sjekire, čovjek koji ju je napravio znao je kako.

But who knows how to make a computer mouse?

Ali tko zna kako napraviti računalni miš?

Nobody, literally nobody.

Nitko, doslovno nitko.

There is nobody on the planet who knows how to make a computer mouse.

Ne postoji nitko na planeti tko zna napraviti računalni miš.

I mean this quite seriously.

Ovo mislim potpuno ozbiljno.

The president of the computer mouse company doesn't know.

Predsjednik tvrtke za izradu računalnih miševa ne zna.

He just knows how to run a company.

On samo zna kako voditi tvrtku.

The person on the assembly line doesn't know

Osoba na proizvodnoj liniji ne zna,

because he doesn't know how to drill an oil well

jer ne zna kako iskopati naftu

to get oil out to make plastic, and so on.

da bi se od nje napravila plastika, itd.

We all know little bits, but none of us knows the whole.

Svi znamo po malo, ali nitko od nas ne zna sve.

I am of course quoting from a famous essay

Naravno citiram čuveni esej

by Leonard Read, the economist in the 1950s,

od Leonarda Reada, ekonomista iz pedesetih,

called "I, Pencil"

naziva "Ja, olovka"

in which he wrote about how a pencil came to be made,

u kojem je napisao kako nastaje olovka,

and how nobody knows even how to make a pencil,

i kako nitko ne zna kako se pravi olovka,

because the people who assemble it don't know how to mine graphite,

jer ljudi koji je sastavljaju ne znaju kako vaditi grafit.

and they don't know how to fell trees and that kind of thing.

I ne znaju kako rušiti drveće i takve stvari.

And what we've done in human society,

I ono što smo učinili kroz društvo,

through exchange and specialization,

kroz razmjenu i specijalizaciju,

is we've created

je da smo stvorili

the ability to do things that we don't even understand.

sposobnost izrade stvari koje ni ne razumijemo.

It's not the same with language.

Nije isto sa jezikom.

With language we have to transfer ideas

U jeziku moramo prenositi ideje

that we understand with each other.

koje razumijemo, jedni s drugima.

But with technology,

No sa tehnologijom,

we can actually do things that are beyond our capabilities.

možemo raditi stvari iznad naših sposobnosti.

We've gone beyond the capacity of the human mind

Izašli smo izvan granica ljudskog uma,

to an extraordinary degree.

do nevjerojatnog nivoa.

And by the way,

I usput,

that's one of the reasons that I'm not interested

to je jedan od razloga zašto me ne zanima

in the debate about I.Q.,

debatiranje o I.Q.

about whether some groups have higher I.Q.s than other groups.

o tome ima li neka grupa veći I.Q. od druge.

It's completely irrelevant.

To je potpuno nebitno.

What's relevant to a society

Ono što je bitno za društvo

is how well people are communicating their ideas,

je koliko dobro ljudi prenose svoje ideje,

and how well they're cooperating,

te koliko dobro surađuju,

not how clever the individuals are.

a ne koliko su njihovi pojedinci pametni.

So we've created something called the collective brain.

Dakle stvorili smo nešto zvano kolektivni mozak.

We're just the nodes in the network.

Mi smo samo čvorovi u mreži.

We're the neurons in this brain.

Mi smo neuroni u tom mozgu.

It's the interchange of ideas,

Razmjena ideja,

the meeting and mating of ideas between them,

susretanje i parenje ideja između njih samih,

that is causing technological progress,

je to što dovodi do tehnološkog napretka,

incrementally, bit by bit.

postepeno, malo po malo.

However, bad things happen.

Međutim, loše stvari se događaju.

And in the future, as we go forward,

Te u budućnosti, kako napredujemo

we will, of course, experience terrible things.

iskusit ćemo, naravno užasne stvari.

There will be wars; there will be depressions;

Bit će ratova, bit će depresija,

there will be natural disasters.

biti će prirodnih katastrofa.

Awful things will happen in this century, I'm absolutely sure.

Užasne stvari će se dogoditi u ovom stoljeću, uvjeren sam u to.

But I'm also sure that, because of the connections people are making,

Ali također sam siguran da, zbog veza koje ljudi prave,

and the ability of ideas

i sposobnosti i ideja

to meet and to mate

da se susreću i pare

as never before,

kao nikad prije.

I'm also sure

Također sam siguran

that technology will advance,

da će tehnologija napredovati,

and therefore living standards will advance.

te tako životni standard rasti.

Because through the cloud,

Jer kroz oblak,

through crowd sourcing,

kroz grupno vođenje,

through the bottom-up world that we've created,

kroz vertikalni svijet koji smo stvorili,

where not just the elites but everybody

gdje ne samo elite, već svi mogu

is able to have their ideas

imati svoje ideje

and make them meet and mate,

te učiniti da se susreću i pare,

we are surely accelerating the rate of innovation.

zasigurno ubrzavamo tempo inovacija.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)