The optimism bias | Tali Sharot

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Tatjana Jevdjic Lektor: Ivana Korom

I'm going to talk to you about optimism --

Govoriću vam o optimizmu --

or more precisely, the optimism bias.

ili preciznije o pristrasnosti optimizma.

It's a cognitive illusion

To je kognitivna iluzija

that we've been studying in my lab for the past few years,

koju proučavamo u mojoj laboratoriji poslednjih nekoliko godina

and 80 percent of us have it.

i ima je 80 posto nas.

It's our tendency to overestimate

To je naša sklonost da precenjujemo

our likelihood of experiencing good events in our lives

verovatnoću da nam se dese dobri događaji,

and underestimate our likelihood of experiencing bad events.

a potcenjujemo šanse da nam se dese loši.

So we underestimate our likelihood of suffering from cancer,

Potcenjujemo verovatnoću da ćemo oboleti od raka,

being in a car accident.

doživeti saobraćajnu nesreću.

We overestimate our longevity, our career prospects.

Precenjujemo svoju dugovečnost, svoje izglede u karijeri.

In short, we're more optimistic than realistic,

Ukratko, mi smo više optimistični nego realistični,

but we are oblivious to the fact.

ali toga nismo svesni.

Take marriage for example.

Uzmite na primer brak.

In the Western world, divorce rates are about 40 percent.

U zapadnom svetu stope razvoda su oko 40 posto.

That means that out of five married couples,

To znači da će se od pet venčanih parova

two will end up splitting their assets.

dva završiti podelom imovine.

But when you ask newlyweds about their own likelihood of divorce,

Ali kad upitate upravo venčane o verovatnoći da će da se razvedu,

they estimate it at zero percent.

oni procenjuju da je to nula posto.

And even divorce lawyers, who should really know better,

Čak i advokati za razvod, koji bi zaista trebalo da znaju bolje,

hugely underestimate their own likelihood of divorce.

u velikoj meri potcenjuju verovatnoću da se razvedu.

So it turns out that optimists are not less likely to divorce,

Ispada da optimisti nemaju manje šanse da se razvedu,

but they are more likely to remarry.

ali imaju veće šanse da se ponovo venčaju.

In the words of Samuel Johnson,

Prema rečima Semjuela Džonsona,

"Remarriage is the triumph of hope over experience."

"Ponovno venčanje je trijumf nade nad iskustvom."

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So if we're married, we're more likely to have kids.

Ako smo venčani, verovatnije je da ćemo imati decu.

And we all think our kids will be especially talented.

Svi mislimo da će naša deca biti posebno talentovana.

This, by the way, is my two-year-old nephew, Guy.

Ovo je moj dvogodišnji nećak, Gaj.

And I just want to make it absolutely clear

Da vam bude potpuno jasno,

that he's a really bad example of the optimism bias,

on je zaista loš primer ove pristrasnosti optimizma,

because he is in fact uniquely talented.

jer je u stvari jedinstveno talentovan.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And I'm not alone.

Ne mislim samo ja tako.

Out of four British people, three said

Od četiri Britanca, tri su rekla

that they were optimistic about the future of their own families.

da su optimistični po pitanju budućnosti svojih porodica.

That's 75 percent.

To je 75 posto.

But only 30 percent said

Ali je samo 30 posto reklo

that they thought families in general

da misle da je porodicama

are doing better than a few generations ago.

bolje sada nego pre nekoliko generacija.

And this is a really important point,

Ovo je zaista važno,

because we're optimistic about ourselves,

jer smo optimistični kad se radi o nama,

we're optimistic about our kids,

našoj deci,

we're optimistic about our families,

našim porodicama

but we're not so optimistic about the guy sitting next to us,

ali nismo tako mnogo optimistični kad se radi o osobi koja sedi do nas

and we're somewhat pessimistic

i nekako smo pesimistični

about the fate of our fellow citizens and the fate of our country.

kad se radi o sudbini naših sugrađana i naše zemlje.

But private optimism about our own personal future

Ali optimizam o našoj ličnoj budućnosti

remains persistent.

ostaje trajan.

And it doesn't mean that we think things will magically turn out okay,

To ne znači da mislimo da će stvari magično ispasti OK,

but rather that we have the unique ability to make it so.

već da imamo jedinstvenu sposobnost da ispadnu OK.

Now I'm a scientist, I do experiments.

Ja sam naučnica i eksperimentišem.

So to show you what I mean,

Da bih vam pokazala na šta mislim,

I'm going to do an experiment here with you.

sprovešću eksperiment ovde sa vama.

So I'm going to give you a list of abilities and characteristics,

Daću vam listu sposobnosti i osobina,

and I want you to think for each of these abilities

hoću da razmislite za svaku od ovih sposobnosti

where you stand relative to the rest of the population.

gde se nalazite u odnosu na ostatak populacije.

The first one is getting along well with others.

Prva je, kako se slažete sa drugima.

Who here believes they're at the bottom 25 percent?

Ko ovde veruje da je u donjih 25 posto?

Okay, that's about 10 people out of 1,500.

OK, to je oko 10 ljudi od 1 500.

Who believes they're at the top 25 percent?

Ko veruje da je u gornjih 25 posto?

That's most of us here.

To je većina ovde.

Okay, now do the same for your driving ability.

OK, sad uradimo isto za vašu vozačku sposobnost.

How interesting are you?

Koliko ste zanimljivi?

How attractive are you?

Koliko ste privlačni?

How honest are you?

Koliko ste iskreni?

And finally, how modest are you?

I konačno, koliko ste skromni?

So most of us put ourselves above average

Ispada da mnogi od nas misle da su iznad proseka

on most of these abilities.

u vezi sa većinom ovih sposobnosti.

Now this is statistically impossible.

Ovo je statistički nemoguće.

We can't all be better than everyone else.

Ne možemo svi biti bolji od svih ostalih.

(Laughter)

(smeh)

But if we believe we're better than the other guy,

Ali ako verujemo da smo bolji nego onaj drugi,

well that means that we're more likely to get that promotion, to remain married,

onda znači da je verovatnije da ćemo da dobijemo to unapređenje, da ostanemo u braku,

because we're more social, more interesting.

jer smo društveniji, zanimljiviji.

And it's a global phenomenon.

I to je globalni fenomen.

The optimism bias has been observed

Pristrasnost optimizma su posmatrali

in many different countries --

u mnogim državama --

in Western cultures, in non-Western cultures,

u zapadnim i ostalim kulturama,

in females and males,

među ženama i muškarcima,

in kids, in the elderly.

među decom, starima.

It's quite widespread.

Prilično je rasprostranjena.

But the question is, is it good for us?

Ali pitanje je, da li je to dobro za nas?

So some people say no.

Neki ljudi kažu da nije.

Some people say the secret to happiness

Neki kažu da je tajna sreće

is low expectations.

u malim očekivanjima.

I think the logic goes something like this:

Mislim da logika ide nekako ovako:

If we don't expect greatness,

ako ne očekujemo veliki uspeh,

if we don't expect to find love and be healthy and successful,

da ćemo naći ljubav, biti zdravi i uspešni,

well we're not going to be disappointed when these things don't happen.

tada nećemo biti razočarani kad se ove stvari ne dese.

And if we're not disappointed when good things don't happen,

Ako nismo razočarani kada se ne dese dobre stvari,

and we're pleasantly surprised when they do,

prijatno smo iznenađeni kad se dese,

we will be happy.

bićemo srećni.

So it's a very good theory,

To je veoma dobra teorija,

but it turns out to be wrong for three reasons.

ali ispada da je pogrešna zbog tri razloga.

Number one: Whatever happens, whether you succeed or you fail,

Prvi je: bez obzira šta da se desi, uspeh ili poraz,

people with high expectations always feel better.

ljudi sa velikim očekivanjima se uvek osećaju bolje.

Because how we feel when we get dumped or win employee of the month

Kako se osećamo kad nas šutnu ili kad osvojimo nagradu meseca,

depends on how we interpret that event.

zavisi od toga kako interpretiramo taj događaj.

The psychologists Margaret Marshall and John Brown

Psiholozi Margaret Maršal i Džon Braun

studied students with high and low expectations.

su proučavali studente sa velikim i malim očekivanjima.

And they found that when people with high expectations succeed,

Otkrili su da kad ljudi sa velikim očekivanjima uspeju,

they attribute that success to their own traits.

oni taj uspeh pripisuju svojim osobinama.

"I'm a genius, therefore I got an A,

"Ja sam genijalac, zato sam dobio desetku,

therefore I'll get an A again and again in the future."

zbog toga ću je ponovo dobiti."

When they failed, it wasn't because they were dumb,

Kad nisu uspeli, to se nije desilo zato što su glupi,

but because the exam just happened to be unfair.

već zato što je ispit bio nefer.

Next time they will do better.

Sledeći put će uraditi bolje.

People with low expectations do the opposite.

Ljudi sa malim očekivanjima upravo rade suprotno.

So when they failed it was because they were dumb,

Kad ne uspeju, to je zato što su bili glupi,

and when they succeeded

a kad uspeju,

it was because the exam just happened to be really easy.

to je zato što je ispit bio zaista lak.

Next time reality would catch up with them.

Svet realnosti bi ih sustigao sledeći put.

So they felt worse.

Zbog toga su se lošije osećali.

Number two: Regardless of the outcome,

Drugo: bez obzira na ishod,

the pure act of anticipation makes us happy.

samo iščekivanje nas čini srećnim.

The behavioral economist George Lowenstein

Bihevioralni ekonomista Džordž Lovenstin

asked students in his university

je pitao studente svog univerziteta

to imagine getting a passionate kiss from a celebrity, any celebrity.

da zamisle da ih neka slavna ličnost strasno poljubi.

Then he said, "How much are you willing to pay

Tad je pitao: "Koliko ste spremni da platite

to get a kiss from a celebrity

da bi vas slavna osoba poljubila

if the kiss was delivered immediately,

ako će vas poljubiti odmah,

in three hours, in 24 hours, in three days,

za tri sata, za 24 sata, za tri dana,

in one year, in 10 years?

za godinu dana, za 10 godina?"

He found that the students were willing to pay the most

Otkrio je da su studenti spremni da plate najviše

not to get a kiss immediately,

ne da dobiju poljubac odmah,

but to get a kiss in three days.

već da ga dobiju za tri dana.

They were willing to pay extra in order to wait.

Spremni su da plate više da bi sačekali.

Now they weren't willing to wait a year or 10 years;

Nisu bili spremni da čekaju godinu dana ili 10 godina;

no one wants an aging celebrity.

niko ne voli ostarelu zvezdu.

But three days seemed to be the optimum amount.

Ali tri dana je izgledalo optimalno.

So why is that?

Zašto je to tako?

Well if you get the kiss now, it's over and done with.

Ako poljubac dobiješ sada, on je odmah gotov.

But if you get the kiss in three days,

Ali ako dobiješ poljubac za tri dana,

well that's three days of jittery anticipation, the thrill of the wait.

onda je to tri dana nestrpljivog iščekivanja, uzbuđenje zbog čekanja.

The students wanted that time

Studenti su hteli to vreme

to imagine where is it going to happen,

da bi zamislili gde će to dogoditi,

how is it going to happen.

kako će se dogoditi.

Anticipation made them happy.

Iščekivanje ih je učinilo srećnim.

This is, by the way, why people prefer Friday to Sunday.

Zbog ovog ljudi više vole petak nego nedelju.

It's a really curious fact,

To je zaista neobično,

because Friday is a day of work and Sunday is a day of pleasure,

jer petak je radni dan, a nedelja je dan za zadovoljstvo,

so you'd assume that people will prefer Sunday,

tako da biste pretpostavili da ljudi više vole nedelju,

but they don't.

ali nije tako.

It's not because they really, really like being in the office

Ne zato što ljudi stvarno vole da budu u kancelariji

and they can't stand strolling in the park

i ne vole šetnju u parku

or having a lazy brunch.

ili da doručkuju natenane.

We know that, because when you ask people

To znamo, jer kad pitate ljude

about their ultimate favorite day of the week,

koji im je omiljeni dan u nedelji,

surprise, surprise, Saturday comes in at first,

subota je prva,

then Friday, then Sunday.

pa petak, pa nedelja.

People prefer Friday

Ljudi više vole petak

because Friday brings with it the anticipation of the weekend ahead,

jer petak donosi sa sobom i iščekivanje dolazećeg vikenda,

all the plans that you have.

svih planova koje imate.

On Sunday, the only thing you can look forward to

Nedeljom, jedina stvar kojoj se možete radovati

is the work week.

je radna nedelja.

So optimists are people who expect more kisses in their future,

Optimisti su ljudi koji očekuju više poljubaca u svojoj budućnosti,

more strolls in the park.

više šetnji u parku.

And that anticipation enhances their wellbeing.

I to iščekivanje je dobro za njih.

In fact, without the optimism bias,

U stvari bez pristrasnosti optimizma,

we would all be slightly depressed.

svi bismo bili pomalo depresivni.

People with mild depression,

Ljudi sa umerenom depresijom,

they don't have a bias when they look into the future.

nemaju predrasude kad pogledaju u budućnost.

They're actually more realistic than healthy individuals.

U stvari su realističniji nego zdravi ljudi.

But individuals with severe depression,

Ali osobe sa ozbiljnom depresijom,

they have a pessimistic bias.

imaju pristrasnost pesimizma.

So they tend to expect the future

Oni očekuju da će budućnost

to be worse than it ends up being.

biti gora nego što će zaista biti.

So optimism changes subjective reality.

Optimizam menja subjektivnu stvarnost.

The way we expect the world to be changes the way we see it.

Ono što očekujemo da će biti, menja naš pogled na svet.

But it also changes objective reality.

Ali isto tako menja objektivnu stvarnost.

It acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

To je kao ispunjavanje proročanstva.

And that is the third reason

Tu je i treći razlog

why lowering your expectations will not make you happy.

zašto vas smanjivanje očekivanja neće učiniti srećnim.

Controlled experiments have shown

Kontrolisani eksperimenti su pokazali

that optimism is not only related to success,

da optimizam nije samo povezan sa uspehom,

it leads to success.

on vodi ka uspehu.

Optimism leads to success in academia and sports and politics.

Optimizam vodi ka uspehu u školi, sportovima i politici.

And maybe the most surprising benefit of optimism is health.

Možda je zdravlje najviše iznenađujuća korist od optimizma.

If we expect the future to be bright,

Ako očekujemo da budućnost bude svetla,

stress and anxiety are reduced.

stres i anksioznost su smanjeni.

So all in all, optimism has lots of benefits.

Sve u svemu, optimizam ima mnogo prednosti.

But the question that was really confusing to me was,

Pitanje koje me je zbunjivalo je

how do we maintain optimism in the face of reality?

kako zadržati optimizam u stvarnosti?

As an neuroscientist, this was especially confusing,

Kao neuronaučnici, ovo je bilo posebno zbunjujuće,

because according to all the theories out there,

jer prema svim teorijama koje postoje,

when your expectations are not met, you should alter them.

kad se ne ostvare tvoja očekivanja, treba da ih promeniš.

But this is not what we find.

Ali ovo nije ono što nalazimo.

We asked people to come into our lab

Doveli smo ljude u našu laboratoriju

in order to try and figure out what was going on.

da bismo pokušali da procenimo šta se dešava.

We asked them to estimate their likelihood

Pitali smo ih da procene verovatnoću

of experiencing different terrible events in their lives.

da im se dese razni grozni događaji.

So, for example, what is your likelihood of suffering from cancer?

Na primer, koja je verovatnoća da ćeš oboleti od raka?

And then we told them the average likelihood

Tad bismo im saopštili prosečnu verovatnoću

of someone like them to suffer these misfortunes.

da neko kao oni to doživi.

So cancer, for example, is about 30 percent.

Tako je za rak verovatnoća oko 30 posto.

And then we asked them again,

I zatim smo ih ponovo pitali:

"How likely are you to suffer from cancer?"

"Kolika je šansa da vi dobijete rak?"

What we wanted to know was

Ono što smo hteli da znamo je

whether people will take the information that we gave them

da li će ljudi primiti informaciju koju smo im dali

to change their beliefs.

da bi promenili svoje uverenje.

And indeed they did --

Zaista i jesu --

but mostly when the information we gave them

ali uglavnom kad je informacija koju smo im dali

was better than what they expected.

bila bolja od onog što su oni očekivali.

So for example,

Na primer,

if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer

ako je neko rekao: "Moja šansa da obolim od raka

is about 50 percent,"

je oko 50 posto",

and we said, "Hey, good news.

mi bismo rekli: "Hej, dobre vesti.

The average likelihood is only 30 percent,"

Prosečna verovatnoća je samo 30 posto",

the next time around they would say,

sledeći put oni bi rekli:

"Well maybe my likelihood is about 35 percent."

"Pa možda je moja verovatnoća oko 35 posto."

So they learned quickly and efficiently.

Dakle, učili su brzo i efikasno.

But if someone started off saying,

Ali ako bi neko počeo sa:

"My average likelihood of suffering from cancer is about 10 percent,"

"Moja šansa da obolim od raka je oko 10 posto",

and we said, "Hey, bad news.

a mi na to: "Hej, loše vesti.

The average likelihood is about 30 percent,"

Prosečna šansa je oko 30 posto",

the next time around they would say,

sledeći put oni bi rekli:

"Yep. Still think it's about 11 percent."

"Da. I dalje mislim da je oko 11 posto."

(Laughter)

(smeh)

So it's not that they didn't learn at all -- they did --

Nije da oni nisu naučili uopšte -- naprotiv --

but much, much less than when we gave them

ali mnogo manje nego kad smo im dali

positive information about the future.

pozitivnu informaciju o budućnosti.

And it's not that they didn't remember the numbers that we gave them;

Nije da nisu upamtili brojeve koje smo im dali;

everyone remembers that the average likelihood of cancer

svako zapamti da je prosečna šansa za rak

is about 30 percent

oko 30 posto

and the average likelihood of divorce is about 40 percent.

i prosečna verovatnoća za razvod oko 40 posto.

But they didn't think that those numbers were related to them.

Ali oni ne misle da se ovi brojevi odnose na njih.

What this means is that warning signs such as these

Ovo znači da ovakvi znaci upozorenja

may only have limited impact.

mogu imati samo ograničen uticaj.

Yes, smoking kills, but mostly it kills the other guy.

Pušenje ubija, ali uglavnom nekog drugog.

What I wanted to know was

Ono šta sam htela da saznam je

what was going on inside the human brain

šta se dešava unutar ljudskog mozga,

that prevented us from taking these warning signs personally.

što nas je sprečilo da shvatimo ova upozorenja lično.

But at the same time,

Ali u isto vreme,

when we hear that the housing market is hopeful,

kad čujemo da je prodaja kuća krenula,

we think, "Oh, my house is definitely going to double in price."

mislimo: "Moja kuća će definitivno dostići duplu cenu."

To try and figure that out,

Pokušavajući da to shvatim,

I asked the participants in the experiment

pitala sam učesnike eksperimenta

to lie in a brain imaging scanner.

da im uradimo skener mozga.

It looks like this.

To izgleda ovako.

And using a method called functional MRI,

Koristeći MRI metod,

we were able to identify regions in the brain

bili smo u stanju da identifikujemo regione u mozgu

that were responding to positive information.

koji su odgovarali na pozitivne informacije.

One of these regions is called the left inferior frontal gyrus.

Jedan od ovih regiona je nazvan donja leva čeona vijuga.

So if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer is 50 percent,"

Ako je neko rekao: "Moja šansa da obolim od raka je 50 posto",

and we said, "Hey, good news.

a mi: "Hej, dobre vesti.

Average likelihood is 30 percent,"

Prosečna verovatnoća je 30 posto",

the left inferior frontal gyrus would respond fiercely.

donja leva čeona vijuga bi odgovorila snažno.

And it didn't matter if you're an extreme optimist, a mild optimist

Nije imalo veze s tim da li ste ekstremni optimista, umereni optimista

or slightly pessimistic,

ili pomalo pesimista,

everyone's left inferior frontal gyrus

svačija donja leva čeona vijuga

was functioning perfectly well,

je funkcionisala savršeno dobro,

whether you're Barack Obama or Woody Allen.

bez obzira da li ste Barak Obama ili Vudi Alen.

On the other side of the brain,

Na drugoj strani mozga,

the right inferior frontal gyrus was responding to bad news.

donja desna čeona vijuga je reagovala na loše vesti.

And here's the thing: it wasn't doing a very good job.

I tu ima sledeća stvar - ona nije radila dobar posao.

The more optimistic you were,

Što ste optimističniji,

the less likely this region was

manja je verovatnoća da ovaj region

to respond to unexpected negative information.

odgovori na neočekivane negativne informacije.

And if your brain is failing

Ako vaš mozak zakazuje

at integrating bad news about the future,

u prihvatanju loših vesti o budućnosti,

you will constantly leave your rose-tinted spectacles on.

konstantno ćete nositi roze obojene naočare.

So we wanted to know, could we change this?

Tako da smo hteli da saznamo, da li možemo ovo da promenimo.

Could we alter people's optimism bias

Možemo li promeniti ljudsku pristrasnost optimizma

by interfering with the brain activity in these regions?

ometanjem moždanih aktivnosti u ovim regijama?

And there's a way for us to do that.

Postoji način na koji to radimo.

This is my collaborator Ryota Kanai.

Ovo je moj saradnik Rijota Kanai.

And what he's doing is he's passing a small magnetic pulse

Sa malim magnetnim impulsima on prolazi

through the skull of the participant in our study

kroz lobanju učesnika naše studije

into their inferior frontal gyrus.

u njihove donje čeone vijuge.

And by doing that,

I radeći ovo,

he's interfering with the activity of this brain region

utiče na aktivnost ove regije mozga

for about half an hour.

oko pola sata.

After that everything goes back to normal, I assure you.

Posle toga sve ide nazad u normalu, uveravam vas.

(Laughter)

(smeh)

So let's see what happens.

Da vidmo šta se dešava.

First of all, I'm going to show you

Prvo, pokazaću vam

the average amount of bias that we see.

prosečnu veličinu pristrasnosti koju vidimo.

So if I was to test all of you now,

Ako treba sve sad da vas testiram

this is the amount that you would learn

ovoliko biste saznali

more from good news relative to bad news.

više od dobrih vesti u odnosu na loše vesti.

Now we interfere with the region

Sad utičemo na regiju

that we found to integrate negative information in this task,

za koju smo saznali da je zadužena za negativne informacije u ovom zadatku,

and the optimism bias grew even larger.

i optimizam raste još više.

We made people more biased in the way that they process information.

Učinili smo ljude pristrasnijima prema tome kako obrađuju informaciju.

Then we interfered with the brain region

Zatim smo uticali na oblast mozga

that we found to integrate good news in this task,

za koju smo pronašli da je zadužena za dobre vesti u zadatku,

and the optimism bias disappeared.

i pristrasnost optimizma je nestala.

We were quite amazed by these results

Bili smo baš zadivljeni ovim rezultatima

because we were able to eliminate

jer smo mogli da eliminišemo

a deep-rooted bias in humans.

duboko usađenu pristrasnost ljudi.

And at this point we stopped and we asked ourselves,

I na ovoj tački smo stali i upitali smo se,

would we want to shatter the optimism illusion into tiny little bits?

da li bismo želeli da razbijemo optimističku iluziju?

If we could do that, would we want to take people's optimism bias away?

Kad bismo mogli, da li bismo želeli da uništimo ljudsku pristrasnost optimizma?

Well I've already told you about all of the benefits of the optimism bias,

Već smo vam rekli o svim koristima pristrasnosti optimizma,

which probably makes you want to hold onto it for dear life.

koje verovatno čine da želite je zadržite zauvek.

But there are, of course, pitfalls,

Ali tu postoje zamke

and it would be really foolish of us to ignore them.

i bilo bi zaista glupo da ih ignorišemo.

Take for example this email I recieved

Uzmite na primer ovaj mail koji sam primila

from a firefighter here in California.

od vatrogasca ovde u Kaliforniji.

He says, "Fatality investigations for firefighters

On kaže: "Istrage smrtnih slučajeva vatrogasaca

often include 'We didn't think the fire was going to do that,'

često navode 'Nismo mislili da će vatra to da uradi',

even when all of the available information

i čak kad su tu sve informacije

was there to make safe decisions."

da bi se donele sigurne odluke."

This captain is going to use our findings on the optimism bias

Ovaj kapetan će da uzme svoje nalaze o pristrasnosti optimizma

to try to explain to the firefighters

da bi pokušao da objasni vatrogascima

why they think the way they do,

zašto oni tako razmišljaju,

to make them acutely aware of this very optimistic bias in humans.

da bi ih uverio o pristrasnosti optimizma.

So unrealistic optimism can lead to risky behavior,

Nerealni optimizam može da vodi do rizičnog ponašanja,

to financial collapse, to faulty planning.

do finansijskog kolapsa, do pogrešnog planiranja.

The British government, for example,

Britanska vlada je na primer,

has acknowledged that the optimism bias

objavila da pristrasnost optimizma

can make individuals more likely

može da napravi da pojedinci više

to underestimate the costs and durations of projects.

potcenjuju troškove i trajanje projekata.

So they have adjusted the 2012 Olympic budget

Tako da su oni prilagodili Olimpijski budžet za 2012.

for the optimism bias.

pristrasnosti optimizma.

My friend who's getting married in a few weeks

Moj prijatelj koji se ženi za par sedmica

has done the same for his wedding budget.

je uradio isto to za svoj svadbeni budžet.

And by the way, when I asked him about his own likelihood of divorce,

Kad sam ga pitala koliko ima šanse da se razvede,

he said he was quite sure it was zero percent.

rekao je da je potpuno siguran da je to nula posto.

So what we would really like to do,

Ono što bismo u stvari želeli da uradimo je

is we would like to protect ourselves from the dangers of optimism,

da se zaštitimo od opasnosti optimizma,

but at the same time remain hopeful,

ali u isto vreme da se nadamo,

benefiting from the many fruits of optimism.

koristeći dobrobiti optimizma.

And I believe there's a way for us to do that.

Verujem da postoji način da to uradimo.

The key here really is knowledge.

Stvarni ključ je znanje.

We're not born with an innate understanding of our biases.

Mi nismo rođeni sa unutrašnjim razumevanjem svojih pristrasnosti.

These have to be identified by scientific investigation.

One moraju biti identifikovane naučnim istraživanjem.

But the good news is that becoming aware of the optimism bias

Dobre vesti su da biti svestan o pristrasnosti optimizma

does not shatter the illusion.

ne razbija iluziju.

It's like visual illusions,

Kao vizualne iluzije,

in which understanding them does not make them go away.

u kojima njihovo razumevanje ne čini da one nestanu.

And this is good because it means

I to je dobro, jer to znači

we should be able to strike a balance,

da bi trebalo da možemo da odredimo pravi balans,

to come up with plans and rules

da postavimo planove i pravila

to protect ourselves from unrealistic optimism,

kako bismo se zaštitili od nerealnog optimizma,

but at the same time remain hopeful.

ali u isto vreme i da se nadamo.

I think this cartoon portrays it nicely.

Mislim da ovaj crtež to lepo opisuje.

Because if you're one of these pessimistic penguins up there

Ako ste jedan od ovih pesimističnih pingvina ovde gore

who just does not believe they can fly,

koji jednostavno ne veruje da može da leti,

you certainly never will.

svakako nikad i nećete.

Because to make any kind of progress,

Da bi se napravio bilo kakav napredak,

we need to be able to imagine a different reality,

treba da možemo da zamislimo drugačiju realnost

and then we need to believe that that reality is possible.

i onda treba da verujemo da je ta realnost moguća.

But if you are an extreme optimistic penguin

Ali ako ste ekstremno optimističan pingvin,

who just jumps down blindly hoping for the best,

koji samo slepo skače nadajući se najboljem,

you might find yourself in a bit of a mess when you hit the ground.

možete se naći u haosu kad udarite u zemlju.

But if you're an optimistic penguin

Ali ako ste optimističan pingvin

who believes they can fly,

koji veruje da može da leti,

but then adjusts a parachute to your back

pa onda podesite padobran na svojim leđima

just in case things don't work out exactly as you had planned,

samo za slučaj da se stvari ne dese tačno onako kako ste planirali,

you will soar like an eagle,

poletećete kao orao,

even if you're just a penguin.

čak iako ste samo pingvin.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(aplauz)