The optimism bias | Tali Sharot

551,354 views ใƒป 2012-05-14

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

00:00
Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast
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๋ฒˆ์—ญ: JY Kang ๊ฒ€ํ† : Woo Hwang
00:15
I'm going to talk to you about optimism --
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์ €๋Š” ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์—๊ฒŒ ๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ๋งํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:18
or more precisely, the optimism bias.
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๋˜๋Š” ์ข€๋” ์ •ํ™•ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•˜๋ฉด, ๋‚™๊ด€์ฃผ์˜์  ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:21
It's a cognitive illusion
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์ด ๋ถ„์•ผ๋Š” ์ €ํฌ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์‹ค์—์„œ ์ง€๋‚œ ๋ช‡๋…„๊ฐ„ ์—ฐ๊ตฌํ•ด์˜จ
00:22
that we've been studying in my lab for the past few years,
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์ผ์ข…์˜ ์ธ์ง€์  ํ™˜์ƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:25
and 80 percent of us have it.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ 80%๊ฐ€ ๋‚™๊ด€์ฃผ์˜์  ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:27
It's our tendency to overestimate
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๊ทธ ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์ด๋ž€ ์ธ์ƒ์—์„œ ์ข‹์€ ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”
00:30
our likelihood of experiencing good events in our lives
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๊ณผ๋Œ€ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ , ๋‚˜์œ ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”
00:33
and underestimate our likelihood of experiencing bad events.
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๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ .
00:37
So we underestimate our likelihood of suffering from cancer,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋ณดํ†ต ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์•”์— ๊ฑธ๋ฆฌ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜,
00:40
being in a car accident.
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์ž๋™์ฐจ ์‚ฌ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ์ผ์–ด๋‚  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:41
We overestimate our longevity, our career prospects.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์˜ค๋ž˜์‚ฌ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ์žฅ๋ž˜ํฌ๋ง์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ์ข‹์€ ์ชฝ์œผ๋กœ๋งŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ฃ .
00:44
In short, we're more optimistic than realistic,
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์š”์ปจ๋Œ€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ํ˜„์‹ค์ ์ด๊ธฐ ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ๋” ๋‚™๊ด€์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:48
but we are oblivious to the fact.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์„ ์˜์‹ํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:50
Take marriage for example.
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๊ฒฐํ˜ผ์„ ์˜ˆ๋กœ ๋“ค์–ด ๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:52
In the Western world, divorce rates are about 40 percent.
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์„œ์–‘์—์„œ๋Š” ์ดํ˜ผ์œจ์ด ์•ฝ 40%์ •๋„ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:56
That means that out of five married couples,
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์ด๋ง์€ ๋‹ค์„ฏ์Œ์˜ ๋ถ€๋ถ€์ค‘ 2์Œ์€
00:59
two will end up splitting their assets.
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๊ฐˆ๋ผ์„ ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
01:02
But when you ask newlyweds about their own likelihood of divorce,
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์‹ ํ˜ผ๋ถ€๋ถ€์—๊ฒŒ ์ดํ˜ผ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ์งˆ๋ฌธํ•˜๋ฉด,
01:05
they estimate it at zero percent.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ „ํ˜€ ๊ทธ๋Ÿด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์€ ์—†๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋Œ€๋‹ตํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:09
And even divorce lawyers, who should really know better,
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์ดํ˜ผ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋” ์ž˜์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ดํ˜ผ ์ „๋ฌธ ๋ณ€ํ˜ธ์‚ฌ ์กฐ์ฐจ๋„
01:13
hugely underestimate their own likelihood of divorce.
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์ดํ˜ผ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ๋งค์šฐ ๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:17
So it turns out that optimists are not less likely to divorce,
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๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ๋‚™๊ด€์ฃผ์˜์ž๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•ด์„œ ์ดํ˜ผ์„ ๋œ ํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
01:20
but they are more likely to remarry.
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์˜คํžˆ๋ ค ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์žฌํ˜ผํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์ด ๋” ๋งŽ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:22
In the words of Samuel Johnson,
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์‚ฌ๋ฌด์—˜ ์กด์Šจ(์˜๊ตญ์˜ ์‹œ์ธ/ํ‰๋ก ๊ฐ€)์˜ ๋ง ์ค‘์—,
01:25
"Remarriage is the triumph of hope over experience."
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"์žฌํ˜ผ์€ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์—์„œ ๋‚˜์˜จ ํฌ๋ง์˜ ์Šน๋ฆฌ๋‹ค" ๋ผ๋Š” ๋ง์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:29
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
01:30
So if we're married, we're more likely to have kids.
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๊ฒฐํ˜ผ์„ ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋ฉด ์•„์ด๋“ค์„ ๊ฐ€์งˆ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋†’์ฃ .
01:35
And we all think our kids will be especially talented.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ž์‹๋“ค์ด ํŠน๋ณ„ํ•œ ์žฌ๋Šฅ์„ ๊ฐ€์กŒ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:38
This, by the way, is my two-year-old nephew, Guy.
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์ด ์•„์ด๋Š” 2์‚ด๋œ ์ œ ์‚ฌ๋‚ด ์กฐ์นด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:41
And I just want to make it absolutely clear
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์ด ์กฐ์นด ์• ๊ฐ€ ๋‚™๊ด€์ฃผ์˜์  ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์˜ ์•„์ฃผ ์•ˆ์ข‹์€ ์˜ˆ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„
01:43
that he's a really bad example of the optimism bias,
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๋ถ„๋ช…ํžˆ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€๋ฐ์š”.
01:46
because he is in fact uniquely talented.
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์ œ ์กฐ์นด๋Š” ๋…ํŠนํ•œ ์žฌ๋Šฅ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
01:49
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
01:50
And I'm not alone.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ € ํ˜ผ์ž๋งŒ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:52
Out of four British people, three said
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์˜๊ตญ์‚ฌ๋žŒ 4๋ช…์ค‘์— 3๋ช…์ด ์ž์‹  ๊ฐ€์กฑ์˜
01:54
that they were optimistic about the future of their own families.
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ๋‚™๊ด€์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:58
That's 75 percent.
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๊ทธ๊ฑด 75%๋‚˜ ๋˜์ฃ .
02:00
But only 30 percent said
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ๋‹จ์ง€ 30%๋งŒ์ด
02:02
that they thought families in general
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์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ด์ „ ์„ธ๋Œ€๋ณด๋‹ค
02:05
are doing better than a few generations ago.
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๊ฐ€์กฑ์ด ๋” ์ž˜์‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:07
And this is a really important point,
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์ด๊ฑด ์ •๋ง ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ ์ธ๋ฐ์š”.
02:09
because we're optimistic about ourselves,
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ธ์ƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋‚™๊ด€์ ์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:11
we're optimistic about our kids,
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์ž์‹๋“ค์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ๋‚™๊ด€์ ์ด๊ณ ,
02:13
we're optimistic about our families,
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๊ฐ€์กฑ๋“ค์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋„ ๋‚™๊ด€์ ์ด์ง€๋งŒ,
02:14
but we're not so optimistic about the guy sitting next to us,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์˜†์— ์•‰์•„์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋‚™๊ด€์ ์ด์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ 
02:18
and we're somewhat pessimistic
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ตญ๋ฏผ์˜ ์šด๋ช…์ด๋‚˜, ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์šด๋ช…์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”
02:20
about the fate of our fellow citizens and the fate of our country.
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๋‹ค์†Œ ๋น„๊ด€์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:24
But private optimism about our own personal future
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ฐœ์ธ์ ์ธ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์€
02:28
remains persistent.
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๊พธ์ค€ํžˆ ์กด์žฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:30
And it doesn't mean that we think things will magically turn out okay,
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์„ธ์ƒ์ผ๋“ค์ด ๋งˆ๋ฒ•์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ์ข‹๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ”๋€๋‹ค๋Š”๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
02:34
but rather that we have the unique ability to make it so.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๋…ํŠนํ•œ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
02:38
Now I'm a scientist, I do experiments.
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์ž, ์ €๋Š” ๊ณผํ•™์ž์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์‹คํ—˜์„ ํ•ด๋ดค์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:41
So to show you what I mean,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋งํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ๋“œ๋ฆฌ๋ ค๊ณ 
02:43
I'm going to do an experiment here with you.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์‹  ๋ถ„๋“ค๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์‹คํ—˜์„ ํ•ด๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:45
So I'm going to give you a list of abilities and characteristics,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ๊ณผ ์„ฑ๊ฒฉ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฆฌ์ŠคํŠธ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์—ฌ๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ณ ,
02:49
and I want you to think for each of these abilities
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๊ทธ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ๋“ค์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๊ณผ
02:52
where you stand relative to the rest of the population.
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๋น„๊ตํ•ด์„œ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด์ฃผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:56
The first one is getting along well with others.
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์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋Š” ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๊ณผ ์ž˜ ์–ด์šธ๋ฆฌ๋Š๋ƒ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:00
Who here believes they're at the bottom 25 percent?
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„ ์ค‘ ํ•˜์œ„ 25%์— ์†ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์‹œ๋Š” ๋ถ„์€ ๋ˆ„๊ตฌ์‹ ๊ฐ€์š”?
03:06
Okay, that's about 10 people out of 1,500.
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๋„ค, 1,500๋ถ„์ค‘์—์„œ ๋Œ€๋žต 10๋ถ„์ •๋„ ๋˜์‹œ๋Š”๊ตฐ์š”.
03:10
Who believes they're at the top 25 percent?
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์ƒ์œ„ 25%์— ์†ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์‹œ๋Š” ๋ถ„์€์š”?
03:14
That's most of us here.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์‹ ๋ถ„ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์ด๋„ค์š”.
03:17
Okay, now do the same for your driving ability.
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์ข‹์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ์šด์ „๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋„ ๊ฐ™์€ ์‹คํ—˜์„ ํ•ด๋ณด์ฃ .
03:22
How interesting are you?
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์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๊ด€์‹ฌ์ด ์žˆ์œผ์‹ ๊ฐ€์š”?
03:24
How attractive are you?
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์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๊ด€์‹ฌ์„ ๋„๋‚˜์š”?
03:27
How honest are you?
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์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์†”์งํ•˜์„ธ์š”?
03:30
And finally, how modest are you?
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๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๊ฒธ์†ํ•˜์„ธ์š”?
03:35
So most of us put ourselves above average
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์— ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€
03:38
on most of these abilities.
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ํ‰๊ท ์ด์ƒ์˜ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:40
Now this is statistically impossible.
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์ด๊ฑด ํ†ต๊ณ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:42
We can't all be better than everyone else.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๋ณด๋‹ค ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋‚˜์„์ˆ˜๋Š” ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:45
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
03:47
But if we believe we're better than the other guy,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋›ฐ์–ด๋‚˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฏฟ๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด,
03:50
well that means that we're more likely to get that promotion, to remain married,
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์Šน์ง„ํ•  ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด ๋†’๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๊ฒฐํ˜ผ์„ ๊ณ„์† ์œ ์ง€ํ•  ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด ๋†’๋‹ค๋Š”๊ฑธ ์˜๋ฏธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:54
because we're more social, more interesting.
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ๋” ์‚ฌํšŒ์ ์ด๊ณ  ๊ด€์‹ฌ์ด ๋งŽ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
03:56
And it's a global phenomenon.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์„ธ๊ณ„์ ์ธ ํ˜„์ƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:58
The optimism bias has been observed
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๋‚™๊ด€์ฃผ์˜์  ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์€
04:01
in many different countries --
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๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ๋‚˜๋ผ์—์„œ ๊ด€์ฐฐ๋˜์–ด์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. --
04:03
in Western cultures, in non-Western cultures,
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์„œ์–‘์˜ ๋ฌธํ™”, ๋น„์„œ์–‘๊ถŒ์˜ ๋ฌธํ™”์—์„œ,
04:06
in females and males,
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์—ฌ์„ฑ๊ณผ ๋‚จ์„ฑ์˜ ๋ฌธํ™”์—์„œ,
04:07
in kids, in the elderly.
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์•„์ด๋“ค๊ณผ ์„ฑ์ธ ๋ฌธํ™”์—์„œ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ .
04:09
It's quite widespread.
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์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ ๋„๋ฆฌ ํผ์ ธ์žˆ๋Š” ํ˜„์ƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:11
But the question is, is it good for us?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์„ ํ•ด๋ณด์ฃ . "์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ์ข‹์€ ํ˜„์ƒ์ธ๊ฐ€์š”?"
04:14
So some people say no.
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์–ด๋–ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:17
Some people say the secret to happiness
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์–ด๋–ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ํ–‰๋ณต์˜ ๋น„๊ฒฐ์€
04:19
is low expectations.
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๊ธฐ๋Œ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋‚ฎ์„๋•Œ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:22
I think the logic goes something like this:
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๊ทธ ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ๊ฑฐ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค :
04:25
If we don't expect greatness,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋Œ€๋‹จํ•œ๊ฑธ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด,
04:27
if we don't expect to find love and be healthy and successful,
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์‚ฌ๋ž‘์„ ์ฐพ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜, ๊ฑด๊ฐ•ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์„ฑ๊ณตํ•˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด,
04:31
well we're not going to be disappointed when these things don't happen.
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๊ธฐ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ์ด๋ฃจ์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„ ์‹ค๋งํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:34
And if we're not disappointed when good things don't happen,
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์ข‹์€์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜์ง€ ์•Š์„๋•Œ ์‹ค๋งํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด,
04:37
and we're pleasantly surprised when they do,
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๊ธฐ์œ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์ฆ๊ฒ๊ฒŒ ๋†€๋ž„๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:39
we will be happy.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํ–‰๋ณตํ•ด์ง€์ฃ .
04:41
So it's a very good theory,
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋‹จํ•œ ์ด๋ก ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:43
but it turns out to be wrong for three reasons.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ๋Š” 3๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ด์œ ๋กœ ์ž˜๋ชป๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:46
Number one: Whatever happens, whether you succeed or you fail,
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์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ: ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์„ฑ๊ณต์„ ํ•˜๋“  ์‹คํŒจ๋ฅผ ํ•˜๋“ ,
04:50
people with high expectations always feel better.
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๋†’์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ํ•ญ์ƒ ํ–‰๋ณตํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋Š๋‚๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:54
Because how we feel when we get dumped or win employee of the month
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์‹ค์—ฐ๋‹นํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ด๋‹ฌ์˜ ์šฐ์ˆ˜์‚ฌ์›์œผ๋กœ ๋ฝ‘ํ˜”์„ ๋•Œ ๋Š๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฐ์ •์€
04:58
depends on how we interpret that event.
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๊ทธ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์„ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์„ํ•˜๋Š๋ƒ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋‹ค๋ฅด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:01
The psychologists Margaret Marshall and John Brown
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์‹ฌ๋ฆฌํ•™์ž ๋งˆ๊ฐ€๋ › ๋งˆ์ƒฌ๊ณผ ์กด ๋ธŒ๋ผ์šด์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋†’๊ณ  ๋‚ฎ์€
05:05
studied students with high and low expectations.
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ํ•™์ƒ๋“ค์„ ๋ฐ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:08
And they found that when people with high expectations succeed,
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๋†’์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์„ฑ๊ณตํ•˜๋ฉด
05:12
they attribute that success to their own traits.
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๊ทธ ์„ฑ๊ณต์€ ์ž์‹ ์ด ์ž˜ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋กœ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:15
"I'm a genius, therefore I got an A,
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"๋‚˜๋Š” ์ฒœ์žฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ A ํ•™์ ์„ ๋ฐ›์•˜์–ด์š”."
05:17
therefore I'll get an A again and again in the future."
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"๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ๋‹ค์Œ์—๋„ ๊ณ„์†ํ•ด์„œ Aํ•™์ ์„ ๋ฐ›์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."
05:20
When they failed, it wasn't because they were dumb,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์„ฑ์ ์ด ์•ˆ์ข‹์œผ๋ฉด, ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ทธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ๋ฉ์ฒญํ•ด์„œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:23
but because the exam just happened to be unfair.
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๋Œ€์‹  ์‹œํ—˜์— ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:26
Next time they will do better.
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๋‹ค์Œ์— ๊ทธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ž˜ ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:29
People with low expectations do the opposite.
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๊ธฐ๋Œ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋‚ฎ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€๋กœ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:32
So when they failed it was because they were dumb,
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์„ฑ์ ์ด ์•ˆ์ข‹์œผ๋ฉด ์ž์‹ ์ด ๋ฐ”๋ณด์—ฌ์„œ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:34
and when they succeeded
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์„ฑ์ ์ด ์ž˜ ๋‚˜์˜ค๋ฉด,
05:36
it was because the exam just happened to be really easy.
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์‹œํ—˜์ด ์ •๋ง ์‰ฌ์› ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ฃ .
05:39
Next time reality would catch up with them.
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๋‹ค์Œ์—๋Š” ํ˜„์‹ค์ด ๊ทธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ๋ฐœ๋ชฉ์„ ์žก์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:42
So they felt worse.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋” ์•ˆ์ข‹๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ฃ .
05:44
Number two: Regardless of the outcome,
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๋‘๋ฒˆ์งธ: ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์— ์ƒ๊ด€์—†์ด,
05:47
the pure act of anticipation makes us happy.
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๋ญ”๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ํ–‰์œ„๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์„ ํ–‰๋ณตํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:51
The behavioral economist George Lowenstein
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ํ–‰๋™ ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ž ์กฐ์ง€ ๋กœ์œˆ์Šคํ‹ด์€
05:54
asked students in his university
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๋Œ€ํ•™์ƒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์œ ๋ช… ์—ฐ์˜ˆ์ธ์ด ํ‚ค์Šค๋ฅผ ํ•ด์ฃผ๋Š”
05:56
to imagine getting a passionate kiss from a celebrity, any celebrity.
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์ƒ์ƒ์„ ํ•ด๋ณด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ฃผ๋ฌธํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:00
Then he said, "How much are you willing to pay
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ, "๊ทธ ์—ฐ์˜ˆ์ธ์ด ํ‚ค์Šค๋ฅผ ํ•ด์ฃผ๋Š” ๋Œ“๊ฐ€๋กœ
06:03
to get a kiss from a celebrity
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์–ผ๋งˆ๋ฅผ ์ง€๋ถˆ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‚˜์š”?"
06:05
if the kiss was delivered immediately,
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"๋งŒ์•ฝ์— ํ‚ค์Šค๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ํ•ด์ค€๋‹ค๋ฉด?"
06:07
in three hours, in 24 hours, in three days,
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"3์‹œ๊ฐ„, 24์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด๋‚˜ 3์ผ์•ˆ์— ํ•ด์ค€๋‹ค๋ฉด?"
06:12
in one year, in 10 years?
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"1๋…„์ด๋‚˜ 10๋…„์•ˆํ•ด ํ•ด์ค€๋‹ค๋ฉด์š”?"
06:15
He found that the students were willing to pay the most
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๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ํ•™์ƒ๋“ค์ด
06:18
not to get a kiss immediately,
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ํ‚ค์Šค๋ฅผ ํ•ด์ฃผ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์— ์ง€๋ถˆํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ 
06:20
but to get a kiss in three days.
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3์ผ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ํ‚ค์Šคํ•ด์ฃผ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ“๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ์ง€๋ถˆํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:23
They were willing to pay extra in order to wait.
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ํ•™์ƒ๋“ค์€ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ถ”๊ฐ€๋น„์šฉ๋„ ์ง€๋ถˆํ•  ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:27
Now they weren't willing to wait a year or 10 years;
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1๋…„์ด๋‚˜ 10๋…„์„ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ฆด ์˜์‚ฌ๋Š” ์—†์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:30
no one wants an aging celebrity.
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์•„๋ฌด๋„ ๋‚˜์ด๋“  ์—ฐ์˜ˆ์ธ์€ ์ข‹์•„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:32
But three days seemed to be the optimum amount.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ 3์ผ์€ ์•„์ฃผ ์ ์ ˆํ•œ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ์–‘์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:36
So why is that?
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์™œ ๊ทธ๋Ÿด๊นŒ์š”?
06:39
Well if you get the kiss now, it's over and done with.
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์ง€๊ธˆ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ํ‚ค์Šค๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์œผ๋ฉด, ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋๋‚˜๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ฃ .
06:42
But if you get the kiss in three days,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ 3์ผ์„ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ฆฌ๋ฉด,
06:44
well that's three days of jittery anticipation, the thrill of the wait.
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๊ทธ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ฆผ์€ ์ดˆ์กฐํ•จ๊ณผ ์Šค๋ฆด์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ฆผ์„ ๋Š๋‚๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:48
The students wanted that time
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ํ•™์ƒ๋“ค์€ ์ผ์–ด๋‚  ์ผ๋“ค์„ ์ƒ์ƒํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ
06:50
to imagine where is it going to happen,
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๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์ข‹์•„ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:52
how is it going to happen.
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์–ด๋–ค์ผ๋“ค์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ ๊นŒ ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
06:54
Anticipation made them happy.
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์˜ˆ์ƒ์ด ๊ทธ๋“ค์„ ํ–‰๋ณตํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:56
This is, by the way, why people prefer Friday to Sunday.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ผ์š”์ผ๋ณด๋‹ค ๊ธˆ์š”์ผ์„ ๋” ์„ ํ˜ธํ•˜๋Š” ์ด์œ ์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:00
It's a really curious fact,
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์ด๊ฑด ์ •๋ง ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กœ์šด ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:02
because Friday is a day of work and Sunday is a day of pleasure,
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ธˆ์š”์ผ์€ ๊ทผ๋ฌด์ผ์ด๊ณ  ์ผ์š”์ผ์€ ํœด๋ฌด์ผ์ธ๋ฐ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
07:06
so you'd assume that people will prefer Sunday,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ผ์š”์ผ์„ ๋” ์„ ํ˜ธํ• ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
07:09
but they don't.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:10
It's not because they really, really like being in the office
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ํ˜„์ƒ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ •๋ง๋กœ ์‚ฌ๋ฌด์‹ค์„ ์ข‹์•„ํ•ด์„œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:13
and they can't stand strolling in the park
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ํ•œ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๊ณต์›์„ ์‚ฐ์ฑ…ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
07:15
or having a lazy brunch.
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๋Šฆ์€ ์•„์นจ ๊ฒธ ์ ์‹ฌ์„ ๋จน์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋„ ์•„๋‹Œ๋ฐ ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:17
We know that, because when you ask people
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ
07:19
about their ultimate favorite day of the week,
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ข‹์•„ํ•˜๋Š” ์š”์ผ์„ ๋ฌผ์–ด๋ณด๋ฉด,
07:22
surprise, surprise, Saturday comes in at first,
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๋†€๋ž๊ฒŒ๋„, ํ† ์š”์ผ์ด ์ œ์ผ ๋จผ์ €์ด๊ณ ,
07:24
then Friday, then Sunday.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ธˆ์š”์ผ, ์ผ์š”์ผ ์ˆœ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:27
People prefer Friday
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ž์‹ ์ด ์„ธ์šด ๊ณ„ํš๊ณผ
07:29
because Friday brings with it the anticipation of the weekend ahead,
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์ฃผ๋ง์„ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋Š”
07:33
all the plans that you have.
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๊ธˆ์š”์ผ์„ ์„ ํ˜ธํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
07:35
On Sunday, the only thing you can look forward to
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์ผ์š”์ผ์— ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
07:38
is the work week.
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๋‹ค๊ฐ€์˜ค๋Š” ๊ทผ๋ฌด์ผ๋“ค์ด์ฃ .
07:40
So optimists are people who expect more kisses in their future,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋‚™๊ด€์ฃผ์˜์ž๋“ค์€ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ์‹œ์ ์— ํ•˜๋Š” ํ‚ค์Šค๋‚˜
07:45
more strolls in the park.
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๊ณต์› ์‚ฐ์ฑ…์„ ๋” ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:47
And that anticipation enhances their wellbeing.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ์›ฐ๋น™์„ ์ฆ์ง„์‹œํ‚ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:51
In fact, without the optimism bias,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ๋‚™๊ด€์ฃผ์˜์  ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์ด ์—†์œผ๋ฉด,
07:54
we would all be slightly depressed.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์กฐ๊ธˆ ์šฐ์šธํ•ด ์งˆ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:57
People with mild depression,
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๊ฒฝ๋ฏธํ•œ ์šฐ์šธ์ฆ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€
07:59
they don't have a bias when they look into the future.
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ์ƒ๊ฐํ• ๋•Œ ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:02
They're actually more realistic than healthy individuals.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ํ˜„์‹ค์ ์ด์ฃ .
08:06
But individuals with severe depression,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์‹ฌํ•œ ์šฐ์šธ์ฆ์„ ์•“๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€
08:08
they have a pessimistic bias.
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๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:10
So they tend to expect the future
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๊ฐ€ ์ง€๊ธˆ ๋๋‚˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ๋ณด๋‹ค
08:12
to be worse than it ends up being.
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๋” ์•ˆ์ข‹์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:15
So optimism changes subjective reality.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์ด ์ฃผ๊ด€์ ์ธ ํ˜„์‹ค์„ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:18
The way we expect the world to be changes the way we see it.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์„ธ์ƒ์ด ์กด์žฌํ•˜๋„๋ก ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ์„ธ์ƒ์„ ๋ณด๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ๋ฐ”๊ฟ‰๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:22
But it also changes objective reality.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์€ ๊ฐ๊ด€์ ์ธ ํ˜„์‹ค๋„ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:25
It acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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์ž๊ธฐ์ถฉ์กฑ์˜ˆ์–ธ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘์šฉํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:28
And that is the third reason
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์„ธ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์ด์œ ๊ฐ€ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:30
why lowering your expectations will not make you happy.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์น˜๋ฅผ ๋‚ฎ์ถ”๋Š”๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์Šค์Šค๋กœ๋ฅผ ํ–‰๋ณตํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:33
Controlled experiments have shown
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๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฐ ์‹คํ—˜๋“ค์—์„œ
08:35
that optimism is not only related to success,
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๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์€ ์„ฑ๊ณต๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จ๋  ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
08:38
it leads to success.
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์„ฑ๊ณต์„ ์ด๋Œ๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:40
Optimism leads to success in academia and sports and politics.
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๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์€ ํ•™๊ณ„, ์Šคํฌ์ธ , ์ •์น˜ ๋ถ„์•ผ์—์„œ๋„ ์„ฑ๊ณต์„ ์ด๋Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:44
And maybe the most surprising benefit of optimism is health.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์•„๋งˆ ๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋†€๋ผ์šด ์ž‡์ ์€ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•์ผ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:49
If we expect the future to be bright,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ํ•˜๋ฉด,
08:52
stress and anxiety are reduced.
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์ŠคํŠธ๋ ˆ์Šค์™€ ํ™”๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:55
So all in all, optimism has lots of benefits.
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๋Œ€์ฒด๋กœ ๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์€ ๋งŽ์€ ์žฅ์ ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ .
08:59
But the question that was really confusing to me was,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ €๋ฅผ ํ˜ผ๋ž€์Šค๋Ÿฝ๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋Š” ์งˆ๋ฌธ์€,
09:02
how do we maintain optimism in the face of reality?
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"ํ˜„์‹ค์„ ์ง๋ฉดํ•œ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋‚™๊ด€์ ์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ" ๋ผ๋Š” ์งˆ๋ฌธ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:07
As an neuroscientist, this was especially confusing,
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์‹ ๊ฒฝ๊ณผํ•™์ž๋กœ์จ, ์ด ์งˆ๋ฌธ์ด ํŠนํžˆ ํ˜ผ๋ž€์Šค๋Ÿฌ์› ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:10
because according to all the theories out there,
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์ด๋ก ์— ์˜ํ•˜๋ฉด,
09:13
when your expectations are not met, you should alter them.
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๊ธฐ๋Œ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ์ถฉ์กฑ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์„๋•Œ, ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์น˜๋ฅผ ์กฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
09:17
But this is not what we find.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์•Œ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:19
We asked people to come into our lab
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์ €ํฌ๋Š” ๋ฌด์Šจ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š”์ง€ ์•Œ์•„๋ณด๋ ค๊ณ 
09:22
in order to try and figure out what was going on.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์‹ค๋กœ ๋ถˆ๋ €์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:25
We asked them to estimate their likelihood
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์ธ์ƒ์—์„œ ์•ˆ์ข‹์€ ์ผ์„ ๊ฒฝํ—˜ํ• 
09:27
of experiencing different terrible events in their lives.
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๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ์˜ˆ์ƒํ•ด๋ณด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•ด๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:30
So, for example, what is your likelihood of suffering from cancer?
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ๋“ค์–ด, ์•”์— ๊ฑธ๋ฆด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์€ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋ ๊นŒ์š”?
09:34
And then we told them the average likelihood
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๋ถˆ์šด์„ ๊ฒช๊ฒŒ๋˜๋Š”
09:37
of someone like them to suffer these misfortunes.
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ํ‰๊ท ์ ์ธ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ์•Œ๋ ค์ฃผ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:40
So cancer, for example, is about 30 percent.
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด ์•”์€ ์•ฝ 30%์˜ ๋ฐœ๋ณ‘ ํ™•๋ฅ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:43
And then we asked them again,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋‹ค์‹œ ์งˆ๋ฌธํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:46
"How likely are you to suffer from cancer?"
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"์•”์— ๊ฑธ๋ฆด ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์„ธ์š”?"
09:49
What we wanted to know was
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์ €ํฌ๊ฐ€ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์—ˆ๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์€
09:51
whether people will take the information that we gave them
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ „ํ•ด์ค€ ๊ทธ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜
09:54
to change their beliefs.
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ํ‰์†Œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๋„๋ก ์‚ฌ์šฉ ํ–ˆ๋Š๋ƒ ์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:56
And indeed they did --
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค --
09:58
but mostly when the information we gave them
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ์ €ํฌ๊ฐ€ ์ œ๊ณตํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋Š”
10:01
was better than what they expected.
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๊ทธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ์ข‹์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:04
So for example,
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ๋“ค์–ด,
10:05
if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer
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๋ˆ„๊ตฐ๊ฐ€, "์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•”์— ๊ฑธ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์€
10:08
is about 50 percent,"
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์•ฝ 50%์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋ฉด,
10:10
and we said, "Hey, good news.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” "๊ทธ๊ฑฐ ์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์ด๋„ค์š”. "
10:13
The average likelihood is only 30 percent,"
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"ํ‰๊ท  ๋ฐœ๋ณ‘๋ฅ ์ด ๊ฒจ์šฐ 30%์ธ๋ฐ ๋ง์ด์ฃ ."
10:16
the next time around they would say,
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๋‹ค์Œ์— ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€,
10:18
"Well maybe my likelihood is about 35 percent."
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"์•„๋งˆ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•”์— ๊ฑธ๋ฆฌ ํ™•๋ฅ ์€ 35%์ •๋„ ์ผ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค" ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:20
So they learned quickly and efficiently.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ฆ‰์‹œ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํšจ์œจ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐฐ์›๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:23
But if someone started off saying,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ˆ„๊ตฐ๊ฐ€,
10:26
"My average likelihood of suffering from cancer is about 10 percent,"
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"์ €์˜ ํ‰๊ท  ์•” ๋ฐœ๋ณ‘๋ฅ ์€ ์•ฝ 10%์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ,
10:29
and we said, "Hey, bad news.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ "์ด๋Ÿฐ, ์•ˆ์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์ด๊ตฐ์š”."
10:32
The average likelihood is about 30 percent,"
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"ํ‰๊ท ์ด 30% ์ธ๋ฐ์š”." ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:35
the next time around they would say,
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๋‹ค์Œ๋ฒˆ์— ๊ทธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€
10:37
"Yep. Still think it's about 11 percent."
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"์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ 11%๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:40
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
10:42
So it's not that they didn't learn at all -- they did --
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๊ทธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ „ํ˜€ ๋ฐฐ์šด๊ฒŒ ์—†๋‹ค๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. -- ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ๋Š” ํ•™์Šต๋˜์—ˆ์ฃ  --
10:45
but much, much less than when we gave them
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ €ํฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์คฌ์„ ๋•Œ ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š”
10:47
positive information about the future.
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ํ›จ์”ฌ ์ ๊ฒŒ ๋ฐฐ์šฐ๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:50
And it's not that they didn't remember the numbers that we gave them;
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ €ํฌ๊ฐ€ ์•Œ๋ ค์ค€ ๊ทธ ์ˆซ์ž๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ์–ต๋ชปํ–ˆ๋˜๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:53
everyone remembers that the average likelihood of cancer
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๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ํ‰๊ท  ๋ฐœ๋ณ‘๋ฅ ์ด ์•ฝ 30%์ •๋„
10:56
is about 30 percent
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๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ธฐ์–ตํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:57
and the average likelihood of divorce is about 40 percent.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ดํ˜ผ๋ฅ ์€ ํ‰๊ท  40%๋ผ๊ณ  ๊ธฐ์–ตํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:00
But they didn't think that those numbers were related to them.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ ์ˆซ์ž๊ฐ€ ์ž๊ธฐ์™€ ์—ฐ๊ด€์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ ๋Š” ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋˜๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
11:05
What this means is that warning signs such as these
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์ด์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ  ๋ฌธ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์•„์ฃผ ์ œํ•œ์ ์ธ
11:09
may only have limited impact.
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์˜ํ–ฅ๋งŒ์„ ์ค€๋‹ค๋Š”๊ฒƒ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:12
Yes, smoking kills, but mostly it kills the other guy.
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"๋„ค, ํก์—ฐ์€ ํ•ด๋กญ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์—๊ฒŒ ํ•ด๋กญ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค." ๋ผ๋Š” ์‹์ด์ฃ .
11:16
What I wanted to know was
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์—ˆ๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์€
11:18
what was going on inside the human brain
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๊ฐœ์ธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ๋ฌธ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ๋ฐฉํ•ดํ•˜๋Š”
11:21
that prevented us from taking these warning signs personally.
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์ธ๊ฐ„์˜ ๋‡Œ์†์—์„œ ๋ฌด์Šจ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ๋Š๋ƒ ์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:25
But at the same time,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋™์‹œ์—,
11:26
when we hear that the housing market is hopeful,
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์ฃผํƒ์‹œ์žฅ์ด ํฌ๋ง์ ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋ง์„ ๋“ค์—ˆ์„ ๋•Œ,
11:28
we think, "Oh, my house is definitely going to double in price."
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” "๋‚ด ์ง‘๊ฐ’์ด ๋‘๋ฐฐ๋Š” ๋˜๊ฒ ๊ตฐ." ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:32
To try and figure that out,
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์™œ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ์•Œ์•„๋ณด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด,
11:34
I asked the participants in the experiment
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์‹คํ—˜์˜ ์ฐธ์—ฌ์ž๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋‡Œ ์˜์ƒ ์Šค์บ๋„ˆ์•ˆ์—์„œ
11:37
to lie in a brain imaging scanner.
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๊ฑฐ์ง“๋ง์„ ํ•˜๋„๋ก ํ•ด๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:39
It looks like this.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ชจ์Šต์ธ๋ฐ์š”.
11:41
And using a method called functional MRI,
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๊ธฐ๋Šฅ์„ฑ ์ž๊ธฐ๊ณต๋ช…์˜์ƒ๋ฒ•์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถˆ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ํ†ตํ•ด์„œ,
11:44
we were able to identify regions in the brain
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๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ์ •๋ณด์— ๋ฐ˜์‘ํ•˜๋Š”
11:47
that were responding to positive information.
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๋‡Œ์˜ ์ผ๋ถ€๋ถ„์„ ํ™•์ธ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:50
One of these regions is called the left inferior frontal gyrus.
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์ขŒ์ธก ํ•˜์ „๋‘ํšŒ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถˆ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ถ€๋ถ„์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:54
So if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer is 50 percent,"
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๋ˆ„๊ตฐ๊ฐ€, "์ €์˜ ์•” ๋ฐœ๋ณ‘๋ฅ ์€ 50%์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋ฉด,
11:57
and we said, "Hey, good news.
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์ €ํฌ๊ฐ€ "์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์ด๋„ค์š”."
11:59
Average likelihood is 30 percent,"
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"ํ‰๊ท ์ด 30%์ธ๋ฐ ๋ง์ด์ฃ ."๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋Š”๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
12:02
the left inferior frontal gyrus would respond fiercely.
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์ขŒ์ธก ํ•˜์ „๋‘ํšŒ๋Š” ๊ฐ•๋ ฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ˜์‘ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:05
And it didn't matter if you're an extreme optimist, a mild optimist
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๋งค์šฐ ๋˜๋Š” ๋‹ค์†Œ ๋‚™๊ด€์ ์ด๊ฑฐ๋‚˜, ์•ฝ๊ฐ„ ๋น„๊ด€์ ์ธ ๋ถ„๋“ค๋“ 
12:10
or slightly pessimistic,
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์ƒ๊ด€ ์—†์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:12
everyone's left inferior frontal gyrus
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๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์˜ ์ขŒ์ธก ํ•˜์ „๋‘ํšŒ๋Š”
12:14
was functioning perfectly well,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ๋ฐ”๋ฝ ์˜ค๋ฐ”๋งˆ ์ด๋˜ ์šฐ๋”” ์•Œ๋ Œ์ด๋˜
12:16
whether you're Barack Obama or Woody Allen.
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์™„๋ฒฝํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ž˜ ์ž‘๋™ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:19
On the other side of the brain,
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๋‡Œ์˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์ƒ์—์„œ๋Š”
12:21
the right inferior frontal gyrus was responding to bad news.
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์šฐ์ธก ํ•˜์ „๋‘ํšŒ๊ฐ€ ์ข‹์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์†Œ์‹์— ๋ฐ˜์‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:25
And here's the thing: it wasn't doing a very good job.
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์ด๋ถ€๋ถ„์ธ๋ฐ์š”. ์•„์ฃผ ์ž˜ ์ž‘๋™ํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:29
The more optimistic you were,
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๋” ๋‚™๊ด€์ ์ผ์ˆ˜๋ก
12:31
the less likely this region was
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์ด ๋ถ€๋ถ„์€ ์˜ˆ์ƒ์น˜ ๋ชปํ•œ ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ์ •๋ณด์—
12:34
to respond to unexpected negative information.
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๋ฐ˜์‘ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:37
And if your brain is failing
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‡Œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ
12:40
at integrating bad news about the future,
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์ •๋ฆฌํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
12:43
you will constantly leave your rose-tinted spectacles on.
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์ด์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๊ณ„์† ๋นจ๊ฐ„์ƒ‰์œผ๋กœ ๋‚จ๊ฒŒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:47
So we wanted to know, could we change this?
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €ํฌ๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ฐ”๊ฟ€ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„์ง€ ๊ถ๊ธˆํ•ด ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:52
Could we alter people's optimism bias
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์ด ๋ถ€๋ถ„์—์„œ ๋‡Œ์˜ ํ™œ๋™์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ฃผ์–ด
12:56
by interfering with the brain activity in these regions?
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ๋‚™๊ด€์ฃผ์˜์  ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์„ ์กฐ์ • ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊นŒ์š”?
13:00
And there's a way for us to do that.
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ํ•œ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:02
This is my collaborator Ryota Kanai.
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์ด๋ถ„์€ ์ œ ๋™๋ฃŒ ๋ฃŒํƒ€ ์นธ๋‚˜์ด์ธ๋ฐ์š”.
13:05
And what he's doing is he's passing a small magnetic pulse
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์ด๋ถ„์€ ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ €ํฌ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์˜ ์ฐธ๊ฐ€์ž์˜
13:09
through the skull of the participant in our study
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๋‘๊ฐœ๊ณจ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ž‘์€ ์ž๊ธฐ์žฅ ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋ฅผ
13:11
into their inferior frontal gyrus.
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ํ•˜์ „๋‘ํšŒ๋กœ ๋ณด๋‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ชจ์Šต์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:13
And by doing that,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•จ์œผ๋กœ ํ•ด์„œ,
13:15
he's interfering with the activity of this brain region
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์•ฝ 30๋ถ„๋™์•ˆ ๋‡Œ์˜ ์ผ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ํ™œ๋™์„
13:18
for about half an hour.
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๊ฐ„์„ญํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
13:19
After that everything goes back to normal, I assure you.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‚˜์„œ ๋ชจ๋“ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ •์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„์˜ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žฅ๋‹ดํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:22
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
13:24
So let's see what happens.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ๋ฌด์Šจ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ๋Š”์ง€ ๋ณผ๊นŒ์š”.
13:27
First of all, I'm going to show you
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์šฐ์„  ์ €ํฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ณด๋Š”
13:30
the average amount of bias that we see.
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ํ‰๊ท ์ ์ธ ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์˜ ์–‘์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ๋“œ๋ฆด๊ป˜์š”.
13:32
So if I was to test all of you now,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๊ธˆ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„ ๋ชจ๋‘๋ฅผ ์‹คํ—˜ํ•ด ๋ณธ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
13:35
this is the amount that you would learn
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์ด์ •๋„๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์œ ์†Œ์‹ ๋Œ€๋น„ ์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
13:37
more from good news relative to bad news.
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์–ป๊ฒŒ๋˜๋Š” ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์˜ ์–‘์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:40
Now we interfere with the region
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํ•˜์ „๋‘ํšŒ๋ฅผ ์ž๊ทนํ•ด์„œ
13:42
that we found to integrate negative information in this task,
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๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ •๋ฆฌํ•˜๋ฉด,
13:47
and the optimism bias grew even larger.
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๋‚™๊ด€์  ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์ด ํ›จ์”ฌ ์ปค์ง€๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:50
We made people more biased in the way that they process information.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €ํฌ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ๋” ํŽธํ–ฅ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:56
Then we interfered with the brain region
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์„ ์ •๋ฆฌํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ๋ ค์ง„ ์ด ๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜
13:59
that we found to integrate good news in this task,
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๋‡Œํ™œ๋™์„ ๊ฐ„์„ญํ•˜์—ฌ
14:02
and the optimism bias disappeared.
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๋‚™๊ด€์ฃผ์˜์  ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์„ ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง€๊ฒŒ ํ•ด๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:07
We were quite amazed by these results
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์ €ํฌ๋Š” ์ธ๊ฐ„์—๊ฒŒ
14:09
because we were able to eliminate
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๋ฟŒ๋ฆฌ ๊นŠ์ด ์‹ฌ์–ด์ ธ ์žˆ๋˜ ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์„
14:11
a deep-rooted bias in humans.
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์ œ๊ฑฐ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๊ธฐ์— ๋งค์šฐ ๋†€๋ผ์› ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:14
And at this point we stopped and we asked ourselves,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ๋ฉˆ์ถ”๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์ž์‹ ์—๊ฒŒ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์„ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:19
would we want to shatter the optimism illusion into tiny little bits?
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"๋‚™๊ด€์  ํ™˜์ƒ์„ ์ •๋ง ์ž‘์€ ์กฐ๊ฐ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์›ํ• ๊นŒ์š”?"
14:24
If we could do that, would we want to take people's optimism bias away?
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"๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋‚™๊ด€์  ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์„ ๋‚ ๋ ค ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์„๊นŒ?"
14:29
Well I've already told you about all of the benefits of the optimism bias,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฒŒ์จ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์—๊ฒŒ ๋‚™๊ด€์  ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์˜ ์žฅ์ ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:34
which probably makes you want to hold onto it for dear life.
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์•„๋งˆ๋„ ํ‰์ƒ ๊ฐ„์งํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ•  ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์ด์ฃ .
14:38
But there are, of course, pitfalls,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ฌผ๋ก  ์œ„ํ—˜์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:40
and it would be really foolish of us to ignore them.
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๊ทธ๊ฑธ ๊ฐ„๊ณผํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์ •๋ง ์–ด๋ฆฌ์„์€ ์ผ์ผ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:43
Take for example this email I recieved
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์บ˜๋ฆฌํฌ๋‹ˆ์•„์— ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์†Œ๋ฐฉ๊ด€์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ฐ›์€
14:47
from a firefighter here in California.
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์ด๋ฉ”์ผ์„ ์˜ˆ๋กœ ๋“ค์–ด๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:49
He says, "Fatality investigations for firefighters
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์†Œ๋ฐฉ๊ด€์˜ ์‚ฌ๋ง์ž ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ก์—๋Š” ์ข…์ข… ์ด๋Ÿฐ๊ฒŒ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:53
often include 'We didn't think the fire was going to do that,'
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"์•ˆ์ „ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”"
14:57
even when all of the available information
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"๋ชจ๋“  ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ "
14:59
was there to make safe decisions."
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"ํ™”์žฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ ์ค„์„ ๋ชฐ๋ž์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."
15:01
This captain is going to use our findings on the optimism bias
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์ด ํŒ€์žฅ๋‹˜์€ ์™œ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„
15:05
to try to explain to the firefighters
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์‚ฌ์šฉํ–ˆ๋Š”์ง€ ์†Œ๋ฐฉ๊ด€๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ
15:08
why they think the way they do,
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์ €ํฌ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:10
to make them acutely aware of this very optimistic bias in humans.
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์ธ๊ฐ„์ด ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋‚™๊ด€์ฃผ์˜์  ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์„ ์•„์ฃผ ์ •ํ™•ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ธ์ง€ํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
15:17
So unrealistic optimism can lead to risky behavior,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋น„ํ˜„์‹ค์ ์ธ ๋‚™๊ด€์ฃผ์˜๋Š” ๊ธˆ์œต ์œ„๊ธฐ๋‚˜
15:22
to financial collapse, to faulty planning.
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๊ธฐํš ๋ถ€์‹ค๋“ฑ์˜ ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•œ ํ–‰๋™์„ ๋‚ณ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:26
The British government, for example,
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ๋“ค์–ด, ์˜๊ตญ์ •๋ถ€๋Š”
15:28
has acknowledged that the optimism bias
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๋‚™๊ด€์ฃผ์˜์  ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด
15:30
can make individuals more likely
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ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์˜ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„๊ณผ ๋น„์šฉ์„ ๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ
15:34
to underestimate the costs and durations of projects.
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๋งŒ๋“ค ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋งŽ๋‹ค๋Š”๊ฒƒ์„ ์ฃผ์ง€ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:38
So they have adjusted the 2012 Olympic budget
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ 2012๋…„ ์˜ฌ๋ฆผํ”ฝ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์„
15:42
for the optimism bias.
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๋‚™๊ด€์ฃผ์˜์  ํŽธ๊ฒฌ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์กฐ์ •์„ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:44
My friend who's getting married in a few weeks
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๋ช‡์ฃผํ›„์— ๊ฒฐํ˜ผํ•  ์ œ ์นœ๊ตฌ๋„
15:46
has done the same for his wedding budget.
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๊ฒฐํ˜ผ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์„ ๋˜‘๊ฐ™์€ ์ด์œ ๋กœ ์กฐ์ •ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:49
And by the way, when I asked him about his own likelihood of divorce,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ๊ทธ ์นœ๊ตฌ์—๊ฒŒ ์ดํ˜ผํ•  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ๋ฌผ์—ˆ๋”๋‹ˆ,
15:52
he said he was quite sure it was zero percent.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์€ ์—†๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ž์‹ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋Œ€๋‹ตํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:55
So what we would really like to do,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €ํฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€๊ฒƒ์€
15:58
is we would like to protect ourselves from the dangers of optimism,
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๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์˜ ์œ„ํ—˜์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์ž์‹ ์„ ๋ฐฉ์–ดํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:02
but at the same time remain hopeful,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์œผ๋กœ ์–ป์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”
16:05
benefiting from the many fruits of optimism.
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์žฅ์ ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ํฌ๋ง์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๋‚จ์•„์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:08
And I believe there's a way for us to do that.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ์š”.
16:11
The key here really is knowledge.
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๊ทธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์˜ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ ์€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ง€์‹์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:13
We're not born with an innate understanding of our biases.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ง€์‹์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ํƒœ์–ด ๋‚˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:16
These have to be identified by scientific investigation.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ํŽธ๊ฒฌ๋“ค์€ ๊ณผํ•™์ ์ธ ์กฐ์‚ฌ์— ์˜ํ•ด ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌ๋˜์–ด์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:20
But the good news is that becoming aware of the optimism bias
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์€ ๋‚™๊ด€์ฃผ์˜์  ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์ด
16:24
does not shatter the illusion.
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ํ™˜์ƒ์„ ๊นจ์ง€๋Š” ๋ชปํ•˜๋Š”๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ธ์‹ํ•ด ๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:26
It's like visual illusions,
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์ด๊ฑด ๋งˆ์น˜ ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์„ ์ดํ•ดํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ ํ•ด์„œ
16:28
in which understanding them does not make them go away.
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์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง€์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ์ฐฉ์‹œํ˜„์ƒ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
16:31
And this is good because it means
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋น„ํ˜„์‹ค์ ์ธ ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
16:33
we should be able to strike a balance,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋ณดํ˜ธํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ
16:36
to come up with plans and rules
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๊ณ„ํš๊ณผ ๊ทœ์น™์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
16:38
to protect ourselves from unrealistic optimism,
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๊ท ํ˜•์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ•ด์•ผํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์ข‹์€ ๊ฒƒ์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:41
but at the same time remain hopeful.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋™์‹œ์— ํฌ๋ง์œผ๋กœ ๋‚จ๋Š”๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
16:44
I think this cartoon portrays it nicely.
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์ด ๋งŒํ™”๊ฐ€ ์ด๋Ÿฐ์ ์„ ์ž˜ ๋ฌ˜์‚ฌํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:48
Because if you're one of these pessimistic penguins up there
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๋งŒํ™” ๊ฐ™์€ ๋‚ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„
16:51
who just does not believe they can fly,
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๋ฏฟ์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ํŽญ๊ท„๋“ค์ด๋ผ๋ฉด,
16:53
you certainly never will.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ๊ฒฐ์ฝ” ๋‚ ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:56
Because to make any kind of progress,
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์–ด๋–ค์‹์œผ๋กœ๋“  ์ง„์ „์ด ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—,
16:57
we need to be able to imagine a different reality,
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํ˜„์‹ค์„ ์ƒ์ƒํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š”๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
17:00
and then we need to believe that that reality is possible.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํ˜„์‹ค์€ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฏฟ์–ด์•ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:03
But if you are an extreme optimistic penguin
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ข‹๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ๋ˆˆ๊ฐ๊ณ 
17:07
who just jumps down blindly hoping for the best,
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๋›ฐ์–ด ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทน๋‹จ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚™๊ด€์ ์ธ ํŽญ๊ท„์ด๋ผ๋ฉด,
17:10
you might find yourself in a bit of a mess when you hit the ground.
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๋•…์— ๋–จ์–ด์กŒ์„๋•Œ ์ข€ ์ •์‹  ์—†์„๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:15
But if you're an optimistic penguin
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ๋‚ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š”
17:16
who believes they can fly,
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๋ณดํ†ต์˜ ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ํŽญ๊ท„์ด๋ผ๋ฉด,
17:18
but then adjusts a parachute to your back
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๊ณ„ํšํ•œ๋ฐ๋กœ ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์„ ๋•Œ๋ฅผ ๋Œ€๋น„ํ•ด์„œ
17:21
just in case things don't work out exactly as you had planned,
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๋“ฑ์— ๋‚™ํ•˜์‚ฐ์„ ๋ฉ”๋‹ฌ๊ณ 
17:24
you will soar like an eagle,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค์€ ํŽญ๊ท„์ด์ง€๋งŒ ๋…์ˆ˜๋ฆฌ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
17:26
even if you're just a penguin.
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ํฌํšจํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋‚ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์ฃ .
17:29
Thank you.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:31
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)

Original video on YouTube.com
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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