The optimism bias | Tali Sharot

552,095 views ・ 2012-05-14

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00:00
Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast
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翻译人员: Yi Shao 校对人员: Yu-Jia Wang
00:15
I'm going to talk to you about optimism --
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今天我讲演的主题是乐观——
00:18
or more precisely, the optimism bias.
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准确的说,乐观的偏见。
00:21
It's a cognitive illusion
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过去的几年中
00:22
that we've been studying in my lab for the past few years,
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我们都在实验室中研究这种认知错觉,
00:25
and 80 percent of us have it.
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百分之八十的人都有这种乐观偏见。
00:27
It's our tendency to overestimate
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我们倾向于高估
00:30
our likelihood of experiencing good events in our lives
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生活中发生好事的几率
00:33
and underestimate our likelihood of experiencing bad events.
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低估坏事发生的几率。
00:37
So we underestimate our likelihood of suffering from cancer,
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所以我们会低估我们患上癌症,
00:40
being in a car accident.
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遭遇车祸的几率。
00:41
We overestimate our longevity, our career prospects.
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在寿命和事业前景上,我们则会过于乐观。
00:44
In short, we're more optimistic than realistic,
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简而言之,我们过于乐观,不够现实
00:48
but we are oblivious to the fact.
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而且还浑然不觉。
00:50
Take marriage for example.
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以婚姻为例。
00:52
In the Western world, divorce rates are about 40 percent.
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在西方世界,离婚率大约是百分之四十。
00:56
That means that out of five married couples,
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也就是说每五对夫妇中,
00:59
two will end up splitting their assets.
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有两对最终要闹到分割财产。
01:02
But when you ask newlyweds about their own likelihood of divorce,
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但是如果你问新婚夫妇他们离婚的几率是多少的话,
01:05
they estimate it at zero percent.
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他们的估计是百分之零。
01:09
And even divorce lawyers, who should really know better,
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而且就连应该对这个问题有清醒认识的离婚律师
01:13
hugely underestimate their own likelihood of divorce.
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也会严重低估他们自己离婚的几率。
01:17
So it turns out that optimists are not less likely to divorce,
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实际上乐观主义者离婚的几率并不低,
01:20
but they are more likely to remarry.
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但再婚的几率比较高。
01:22
In the words of Samuel Johnson,
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用Samuel Johnson(英国作家)的话来说,
01:25
"Remarriage is the triumph of hope over experience."
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“再婚是希望战胜了经验。”
01:29
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:30
So if we're married, we're more likely to have kids.
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结婚之后很可能会生孩子。
01:35
And we all think our kids will be especially talented.
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我们都认为自己的孩子会才华横溢。
01:38
This, by the way, is my two-year-old nephew, Guy.
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顺便一提,这是我两岁的侄子Guy。
01:41
And I just want to make it absolutely clear
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我必须强调
01:43
that he's a really bad example of the optimism bias,
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用他来证明乐观偏见是一个非常糟糕的选择,
01:46
because he is in fact uniquely talented.
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因为事实上他确实拥有与众不同的才华。
01:49
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:50
And I'm not alone.
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我不是唯一一个这样想的人。
01:52
Out of four British people, three said
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四个英国人中有三个表示
01:54
that they were optimistic about the future of their own families.
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他们对自己家庭的未来感到乐观。
01:58
That's 75 percent.
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也就是百分之七十五。
02:00
But only 30 percent said
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不过只有百分之三十的人表示
02:02
that they thought families in general
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他们认为现在的家庭
02:05
are doing better than a few generations ago.
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比几十年前的家庭过的更好。
02:07
And this is a really important point,
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这一点非常重要,
02:09
because we're optimistic about ourselves,
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因为我们对自己,
02:11
we're optimistic about our kids,
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自己的孩子
02:13
we're optimistic about our families,
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和自己的家庭都很乐观,
02:14
but we're not so optimistic about the guy sitting next to us,
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然而对于坐在我们旁边的人,我们就没有那么乐观了,
02:18
and we're somewhat pessimistic
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而且我们对他人和国家的命运
02:20
about the fate of our fellow citizens and the fate of our country.
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甚至有些悲观。
02:24
But private optimism about our own personal future
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然而这种针对我们个人未来的个人化乐观
02:28
remains persistent.
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相当顽固。
02:30
And it doesn't mean that we think things will magically turn out okay,
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这并不意味着我们认为事情会变魔术一样莫名奇妙的顺利解决。
02:34
but rather that we have the unique ability to make it so.
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我们相信自己拥有取得成功的独特能力。
02:38
Now I'm a scientist, I do experiments.
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我是科学家,我做实验。
02:41
So to show you what I mean,
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所以为了说明我的观点,
02:43
I'm going to do an experiment here with you.
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我马上就和你们一起做一个实验。
02:45
So I'm going to give you a list of abilities and characteristics,
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我会列出一些能力和性格特点,
02:49
and I want you to think for each of these abilities
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我希望你们对照这个清单思考一下
02:52
where you stand relative to the rest of the population.
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自己的每一项能力处于人群中的什么位置。
02:56
The first one is getting along well with others.
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第一个是和他人和睦相处。
03:00
Who here believes they're at the bottom 25 percent?
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认为自己处于最差的百分之二十五的请举手。
03:06
Okay, that's about 10 people out of 1,500.
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好的,一千五百个人里面大概有十个人举手。
03:10
Who believes they're at the top 25 percent?
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认为自己处于最好的百分之二十五的呢?
03:14
That's most of us here.
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大多数人都举手了。
03:17
Okay, now do the same for your driving ability.
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好的,那再考量一下你的驾驶技术。
03:22
How interesting are you?
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你有趣吗?
03:24
How attractive are you?
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你迷人吗?
03:27
How honest are you?
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你诚实吗?
03:30
And finally, how modest are you?
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最后一个问题,你谦虚吗?
03:35
So most of us put ourselves above average
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所以多数人都认为自己的大部分能力
03:38
on most of these abilities.
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高于平均水平。
03:40
Now this is statistically impossible.
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但从统计学的角度上来说,这是不可能的。
03:42
We can't all be better than everyone else.
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不可能所有人都比其他人优秀。
03:45
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
03:47
But if we believe we're better than the other guy,
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但是如果我们相信自己比别人更优秀,
03:50
well that means that we're more likely to get that promotion, to remain married,
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这也就意味着我们认为自己更应该得到升职,婚姻美满,
03:54
because we're more social, more interesting.
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因为我们性格更有趣,更善于与人交往。
03:56
And it's a global phenomenon.
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这是一个国际性的现象。
03:58
The optimism bias has been observed
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我们可以在来自很多不同国家的人身上
04:01
in many different countries --
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找到乐观偏见——
04:03
in Western cultures, in non-Western cultures,
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无论他来自西方文化还是非西方文化,
04:06
in females and males,
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是男是女,
04:07
in kids, in the elderly.
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是孩子还是老人。
04:09
It's quite widespread.
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这种现象相当普遍。
04:11
But the question is, is it good for us?
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然而问题是,乐观偏见对我们有益吗?
04:14
So some people say no.
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有人认为没有好处。
04:17
Some people say the secret to happiness
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有人认为快乐的秘密就是
04:19
is low expectations.
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不要期望太高。
04:22
I think the logic goes something like this:
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他们的逻辑大概是这样的:
04:25
If we don't expect greatness,
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如果我们不期待成就什么伟业,
04:27
if we don't expect to find love and be healthy and successful,
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不期待找到爱人,身体健康,取得成功,
04:31
well we're not going to be disappointed when these things don't happen.
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我们得不到这些东西的时候也不会特别失望。
04:34
And if we're not disappointed when good things don't happen,
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如果好事没有到来我们却不失望
04:37
and we're pleasantly surprised when they do,
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那么好事发生的时候我们就得到了一个惊喜,
04:39
we will be happy.
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应该很开心。
04:41
So it's a very good theory,
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这个理论听起来很有道理,
04:43
but it turns out to be wrong for three reasons.
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但其实是错误的,原因有以下三点。
04:46
Number one: Whatever happens, whether you succeed or you fail,
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第一:无论成功还是失败,
04:50
people with high expectations always feel better.
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期望高的人都更加快乐。
04:54
Because how we feel when we get dumped or win employee of the month
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因为无论是失恋还是当选每月员工
04:58
depends on how we interpret that event.
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我们感觉如何取决于我们如何解读这一事件。
05:01
The psychologists Margaret Marshall and John Brown
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心理学家Margaret Marshall和John Brown
05:05
studied students with high and low expectations.
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完成了一项以期望值各异的学生为对象的研究。
05:08
And they found that when people with high expectations succeed,
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他们发现,当拥有高期望值的人成功的时候,
05:12
they attribute that success to their own traits.
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他们认为是自己的能力造就了这样的结果。
05:15
"I'm a genius, therefore I got an A,
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“我是天才,所以我得到了A,
05:17
therefore I'll get an A again and again in the future."
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因此我以后也会一直得A。“
05:20
When they failed, it wasn't because they were dumb,
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失败了也不代表他们愚蠢,
05:23
but because the exam just happened to be unfair.
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不过是考试恰巧不公平而已。
05:26
Next time they will do better.
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下一次他们一定会考好。
05:29
People with low expectations do the opposite.
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期望值低的人的思维正好相反。
05:32
So when they failed it was because they were dumb,
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失败是因为他们笨,
05:34
and when they succeeded
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成功则是
05:36
it was because the exam just happened to be really easy.
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因为考试恰巧特别简单。
05:39
Next time reality would catch up with them.
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下次他们就没这么幸运了。
05:42
So they felt worse.
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所以他们的感觉更糟糕。
05:44
Number two: Regardless of the outcome,
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第二:无论结果如何,
05:47
the pure act of anticipation makes us happy.
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心怀期待的感觉就让我们感到快乐。
05:51
The behavioral economist George Lowenstein
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行为经济学家George Lowenstein
05:54
asked students in his university
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请他的学生
05:56
to imagine getting a passionate kiss from a celebrity, any celebrity.
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想象和一位名人激情接吻,任何名人都可以。
06:00
Then he said, "How much are you willing to pay
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然后他问,”如果立刻就得到
06:03
to get a kiss from a celebrity
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和名人接吻的机会
06:05
if the kiss was delivered immediately,
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你愿意付多少钱?
06:07
in three hours, in 24 hours, in three days,
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三小时后呢?二十四小时后呢?三天后呢?
06:12
in one year, in 10 years?
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一年后呢?十年后呢?“
06:15
He found that the students were willing to pay the most
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他发现,三天后接吻,
06:18
not to get a kiss immediately,
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而非立刻接吻,
06:20
but to get a kiss in three days.
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价码最高。
06:23
They were willing to pay extra in order to wait.
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他们愿意为等待承担额外的费用。
06:27
Now they weren't willing to wait a year or 10 years;
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他们不愿意等一年或者十年;
06:30
no one wants an aging celebrity.
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没人希望亲吻一个人老珠黄的名人。
06:32
But three days seemed to be the optimum amount.
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不过三天似乎就是最合适的等待时间。
06:36
So why is that?
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为什么呢?
06:39
Well if you get the kiss now, it's over and done with.
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如果立刻就得到这个吻,美妙的时刻马上就结束了。
06:42
But if you get the kiss in three days,
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如果你三天后才会得到这个吻,
06:44
well that's three days of jittery anticipation, the thrill of the wait.
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这三天你都会因为期待而惴惴不安,因为等待而激动不已。
06:48
The students wanted that time
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学生们希望能有时间
06:50
to imagine where is it going to happen,
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想象接吻的方式
06:52
how is it going to happen.
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和发生的场景。
06:54
Anticipation made them happy.
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期待让他们感到快乐。
06:56
This is, by the way, why people prefer Friday to Sunday.
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顺便一提,相较于周日人们更喜欢周五也是同样的道理。
07:00
It's a really curious fact,
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这个现象非常有趣,
07:02
because Friday is a day of work and Sunday is a day of pleasure,
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因为周五是工作日,周日是休息日,
07:06
so you'd assume that people will prefer Sunday,
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所以人们似乎应该更喜欢周日,
07:09
but they don't.
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然而事实却不是这样。
07:10
It's not because they really, really like being in the office
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这并不是因为大家都喜欢呆在办公室里,
07:13
and they can't stand strolling in the park
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不能忍受在公园散步
07:15
or having a lazy brunch.
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或者享受一顿慵懒的早午餐。
07:17
We know that, because when you ask people
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这一点我们都明白,因为如果你问普通人
07:19
about their ultimate favorite day of the week,
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最喜欢一周之中的哪一天,
07:22
surprise, surprise, Saturday comes in at first,
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不出所料,星期六最受欢迎,
07:24
then Friday, then Sunday.
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其次是周五,再其次才是周日。
07:27
People prefer Friday
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人们喜欢周五是因为
07:29
because Friday brings with it the anticipation of the weekend ahead,
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周五会让你对眼前的周末
07:33
all the plans that you have.
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以及你的周末计划充满期待。
07:35
On Sunday, the only thing you can look forward to
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而周日你所能期待的只有
07:38
is the work week.
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新一周的工作。
07:40
So optimists are people who expect more kisses in their future,
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所以乐观主义者认为未来还有更多的亲吻的机会
07:45
more strolls in the park.
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更多在公园里散步的时间。
07:47
And that anticipation enhances their wellbeing.
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这种期待会提高他们的生活质量。
07:51
In fact, without the optimism bias,
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事实上,如果没有乐观偏见,
07:54
we would all be slightly depressed.
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我们都处于轻度抑郁的状态。
07:57
People with mild depression,
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轻度抑郁的人
07:59
they don't have a bias when they look into the future.
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展望未来的时候没有偏见。
08:02
They're actually more realistic than healthy individuals.
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事实上,他们比健康的人更加现实。
08:06
But individuals with severe depression,
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但是严重抑郁的人
08:08
they have a pessimistic bias.
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有悲观偏见。
08:10
So they tend to expect the future
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所以他们眼中的未来
08:12
to be worse than it ends up being.
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比实际更糟糕。
08:15
So optimism changes subjective reality.
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因此乐观可能改变主观现实。
08:18
The way we expect the world to be changes the way we see it.
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我们对世界的期待改变我们对世界的看法。
08:22
But it also changes objective reality.
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但它也会改变客观现实。
08:25
It acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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是一种可能因为人们的主观想法而客观实现的预言。
08:28
And that is the third reason
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这也就是降低期待不会让你快乐的
08:30
why lowering your expectations will not make you happy.
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第三个原因。
08:33
Controlled experiments have shown
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对照试验表明
08:35
that optimism is not only related to success,
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乐观不仅与成功有关,
08:38
it leads to success.
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更是成功的诱因。
08:40
Optimism leads to success in academia and sports and politics.
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在学术界、体坛和政坛,乐观能都带来成功。
08:44
And maybe the most surprising benefit of optimism is health.
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也许乐观带来的最出人意料的好处就是健康。
08:49
If we expect the future to be bright,
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对美好未来的期待
08:52
stress and anxiety are reduced.
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可以舒缓压力、缓解焦虑。
08:55
So all in all, optimism has lots of benefits.
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因此,乐观益处多多。
08:59
But the question that was really confusing to me was,
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然而对我来说最令人困惑的问题是
09:02
how do we maintain optimism in the face of reality?
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我们如何在现实面前保持乐观的心态?
09:07
As an neuroscientist, this was especially confusing,
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作为一位神经学家这个问题尤其难以理解,
09:10
because according to all the theories out there,
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因为根据现有的理论
09:13
when your expectations are not met, you should alter them.
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如果期望没有成真的话,人会做出相应的调整。
09:17
But this is not what we find.
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然而我们的发现却不是这样。
09:19
We asked people to come into our lab
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为了了解这一切的原理
09:22
in order to try and figure out what was going on.
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我们请普通人走进实验室参与实验。
09:25
We asked them to estimate their likelihood
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我们请他们估计自己
09:27
of experiencing different terrible events in their lives.
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在生活中经历各种不幸的几率。
09:30
So, for example, what is your likelihood of suffering from cancer?
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比如,你得癌症的几率是多大?
09:34
And then we told them the average likelihood
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然后我们告诉他,和他各方面条件相似的人
09:37
of someone like them to suffer these misfortunes.
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经历这种不幸事件的平均几率。
09:40
So cancer, for example, is about 30 percent.
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比如说,得癌症的几率是百分之三十。
09:43
And then we asked them again,
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然后我们请他们再次估计自己患病的几率,
09:46
"How likely are you to suffer from cancer?"
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“你得癌症的几率是多少?”
09:49
What we wanted to know was
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我们希望了解的是
09:51
whether people will take the information that we gave them
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人们是否接受我们给他们的数据
09:54
to change their beliefs.
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并调整他们的想法。
09:56
And indeed they did --
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他们确实这样做了——
09:58
but mostly when the information we gave them
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但主要是在我们给他们的数据优于
10:01
was better than what they expected.
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他们自己的估计的情况下。
10:04
So for example,
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因此,比如
10:05
if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer
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如果人一个人说,“我得癌症的几率
10:08
is about 50 percent,"
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大约是百分之五十,”
10:10
and we said, "Hey, good news.
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然而我们告诉他,“嗨,好消息。
10:13
The average likelihood is only 30 percent,"
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平均几率只有百分之三十,”
10:16
the next time around they would say,
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下一次再问他的时候他会说,
10:18
"Well maybe my likelihood is about 35 percent."
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“那么我患病的几率大约是百分之三十五。”
10:20
So they learned quickly and efficiently.
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所以他们快速高效的接受了信息。
10:23
But if someone started off saying,
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但是如果有人开始说,
10:26
"My average likelihood of suffering from cancer is about 10 percent,"
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“我患癌症的几率大约是百分之十,”
10:29
and we said, "Hey, bad news.
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然而我们告诉他,“嗨,坏消息。
10:32
The average likelihood is about 30 percent,"
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平均患病几率是百分之三十,“
10:35
the next time around they would say,
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第二次被问到的时候他会说,
10:37
"Yep. Still think it's about 11 percent."
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“好。我还是觉得在百分之十一左右。”
10:40
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
10:42
So it's not that they didn't learn at all -- they did --
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因此他们并不是完全不接受新信息——
10:45
but much, much less than when we gave them
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他们只是更愿意接受
10:47
positive information about the future.
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有关未来的积极乐观的信息。
10:50
And it's not that they didn't remember the numbers that we gave them;
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他们没有忘掉我们提供的数据;
10:53
everyone remembers that the average likelihood of cancer
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每个人都记得患癌症的平均几率是
10:56
is about 30 percent
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百分之三十左右
10:57
and the average likelihood of divorce is about 40 percent.
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离婚率是百分之四十左右。
11:00
But they didn't think that those numbers were related to them.
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但他们不认为这些数据与自己有关。
11:05
What this means is that warning signs such as these
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这意味着,此类预警信号的
11:09
may only have limited impact.
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功效有限。
11:12
Yes, smoking kills, but mostly it kills the other guy.
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是的,香烟是一大杀手,但只有其他人会因抽烟丧命。
11:16
What I wanted to know was
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我想了解的是
11:18
what was going on inside the human brain
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人脑中到底发生了什么
11:21
that prevented us from taking these warning signs personally.
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以至于我们无法把预警信号与自身联系起来。
11:25
But at the same time,
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但是
11:26
when we hear that the housing market is hopeful,
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如果我们听说房地产市场很火爆,
11:28
we think, "Oh, my house is definitely going to double in price."
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我们就会认为:“哦,我房子的价值肯定会翻番。”
11:32
To try and figure that out,
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为了了解其中的原理
11:34
I asked the participants in the experiment
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我请实验参与者
11:37
to lie in a brain imaging scanner.
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躺在脑部成像扫描仪中。
11:39
It looks like this.
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看起来就像这样。
11:41
And using a method called functional MRI,
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通过功能性核磁成像,
11:44
we were able to identify regions in the brain
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我们可以而找到大脑中
11:47
that were responding to positive information.
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对积极信息作出反应的区域。
11:50
One of these regions is called the left inferior frontal gyrus.
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左额下回就是这种区域之一。
11:54
So if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer is 50 percent,"
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因此如果有人说,“我患癌症的几率是百分之五十,”
11:57
and we said, "Hey, good news.
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而我们告诉他,“嗨,好消息。
11:59
Average likelihood is 30 percent,"
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平均几率是百分之三会,“
12:02
the left inferior frontal gyrus would respond fiercely.
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左额下回就会有明显的反应。
12:05
And it didn't matter if you're an extreme optimist, a mild optimist
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无论你是极端乐观、一般乐观
12:10
or slightly pessimistic,
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还是轻度悲观,
12:12
everyone's left inferior frontal gyrus
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无论是你是巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)还是伍迪·艾伦(Woody Allen),
12:14
was functioning perfectly well,
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每个人的左额下回
12:16
whether you're Barack Obama or Woody Allen.
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都运转正常。
12:19
On the other side of the brain,
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在大脑的另外一侧,
12:21
the right inferior frontal gyrus was responding to bad news.
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右额下回负责对坏消息做出反应。
12:25
And here's the thing: it wasn't doing a very good job.
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问题就是处在这里:右额下回没能尽忠职守。
12:29
The more optimistic you were,
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你越乐观,
12:31
the less likely this region was
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这一区域
12:34
to respond to unexpected negative information.
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对意外的消极信息的反应就越迟钝。
12:37
And if your brain is failing
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如果你的大脑
12:40
at integrating bad news about the future,
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无法接受有关未来的坏消息,
12:43
you will constantly leave your rose-tinted spectacles on.
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你对世界的看法一直都会比实际美好。
12:47
So we wanted to know, could we change this?
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因此,我们希望进一步了解,我们可以改变这种现象吗?
12:52
Could we alter people's optimism bias
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我们时候可以通过干涉这些区域的脑部活动
12:56
by interfering with the brain activity in these regions?
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来改变人们的乐观偏见呢?
13:00
And there's a way for us to do that.
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我们确实有办法做到。
13:02
This is my collaborator Ryota Kanai.
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这是我的合作伙伴Ryota Kanai。
13:05
And what he's doing is he's passing a small magnetic pulse
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他正在将微小的磁脉冲
13:09
through the skull of the participant in our study
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通过研究参与者的头骨
13:11
into their inferior frontal gyrus.
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传达到他们的额下回。
13:13
And by doing that,
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这样做
13:15
he's interfering with the activity of this brain region
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他可以影响该区域的脑活动
13:18
for about half an hour.
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大约半个小时。
13:19
After that everything goes back to normal, I assure you.
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此后一切恢复正常,我保证。
13:22
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
13:24
So let's see what happens.
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现在我们来看看接下来发生了什么。
13:27
First of all, I'm going to show you
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首先,这是
13:30
the average amount of bias that we see.
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一般的偏见水平。
13:32
So if I was to test all of you now,
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如果我现场测试你们,
13:35
this is the amount that you would learn
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你们接受的好消息
13:37
more from good news relative to bad news.
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就比坏消息多这么多。
13:40
Now we interfere with the region
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现在我们干扰
13:42
that we found to integrate negative information in this task,
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接受消极信息的区域
13:47
and the optimism bias grew even larger.
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乐观偏见就变得更加严重。
13:50
We made people more biased in the way that they process information.
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我们加重了人们处理信息时的偏见。
13:56
Then we interfered with the brain region
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然后我们干扰
13:59
that we found to integrate good news in this task,
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接受好消息的区域,
14:02
and the optimism bias disappeared.
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随后乐观偏见就消失了。
14:07
We were quite amazed by these results
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这样的结果让我们十分震惊
14:09
because we were able to eliminate
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因为我们可以去除
14:11
a deep-rooted bias in humans.
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一种根深蒂固的人类偏见。
14:14
And at this point we stopped and we asked ourselves,
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至此我们停下了脚步并扪心自问,
14:19
would we want to shatter the optimism illusion into tiny little bits?
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将乐观偏见彻底摧毁是一件好事吗?
14:24
If we could do that, would we want to take people's optimism bias away?
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如果可以实现,我们要夺走人们的乐观偏见吗?
14:29
Well I've already told you about all of the benefits of the optimism bias,
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我已经向你们介绍了乐观偏见的种种好处,
14:34
which probably makes you want to hold onto it for dear life.
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你们可能觉得它不可或缺。
14:38
But there are, of course, pitfalls,
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当然,乐观偏见也有它的缺陷,
14:40
and it would be really foolish of us to ignore them.
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而且忽略这些缺陷是十分不明智的。
14:43
Take for example this email I recieved
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比如,一位来自加州的消防员
14:47
from a firefighter here in California.
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给我发来这样一封电子邮件。
14:49
He says, "Fatality investigations for firefighters
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他说,”针对消防员的死伤调查
14:53
often include 'We didn't think the fire was going to do that,'
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常有这样的记述‘我们没有想到火灾中会出现这种情况,’
14:57
even when all of the available information
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然而事实上根据当时已有的信息
14:59
was there to make safe decisions."
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已经可以做出安全的决定了。“
15:01
This captain is going to use our findings on the optimism bias
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3874
这位队长希望用我们有关乐观偏见的研究结果
15:05
to try to explain to the firefighters
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2192
向消防员们解释
15:08
why they think the way they do,
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他们思考模式背后的原理,
15:10
to make them acutely aware of this very optimistic bias in humans.
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让他们意识到人类的这种乐观偏见。
15:17
So unrealistic optimism can lead to risky behavior,
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5119
因此不现实的乐观可能导致高风险行为、
15:22
to financial collapse, to faulty planning.
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经济崩溃、计划缺陷。
15:26
The British government, for example,
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例如,英国政府
15:28
has acknowledged that the optimism bias
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2674
承认乐观偏见
15:30
can make individuals more likely
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3287
会让人
15:34
to underestimate the costs and durations of projects.
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4026
低估各种项目所需耗费的金钱和时间。
15:38
So they have adjusted the 2012 Olympic budget
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4254
他们考虑乐观偏见以后
15:42
for the optimism bias.
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2111
调整了2012年奥运会的预算。
15:44
My friend who's getting married in a few weeks
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2187
我的一位朋友几周以后就要结婚了
15:46
has done the same for his wedding budget.
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2434
他也因为同样的原因调整了婚礼的预算。
15:49
And by the way, when I asked him about his own likelihood of divorce,
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3062
顺便一提,当我问他,他离婚的几率大概是多少时,
15:52
he said he was quite sure it was zero percent.
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他说他坚定的相信是百分之零。
15:55
So what we would really like to do,
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2417
所以我们所真正需要的
15:58
is we would like to protect ourselves from the dangers of optimism,
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4161
是在不成为乐观偏见的受害者的同时,
16:02
but at the same time remain hopeful,
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3228
保持内心充满希望的状态,
16:05
benefiting from the many fruits of optimism.
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2844
享受乐观带来的种种益处。
16:08
And I believe there's a way for us to do that.
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2804
我相信我们可以做到这一点。
16:11
The key here really is knowledge.
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2060
知识是这个问题的关键。
16:13
We're not born with an innate understanding of our biases.
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3311
我们不是生来就对人类的种种偏见有深入的认识,
16:16
These have to be identified by scientific investigation.
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3841
科学研究可以帮助我们识别这些偏见。
16:20
But the good news is that becoming aware of the optimism bias
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不过好消息是,认识乐观偏见
16:24
does not shatter the illusion.
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1775
并不会破坏这种错觉。
16:26
It's like visual illusions,
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1548
就像视觉错觉一样,
16:28
in which understanding them does not make them go away.
332
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明白原理并不会消除错觉。
16:31
And this is good because it means
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2237
值得欣慰的是,
16:33
we should be able to strike a balance,
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2473
我们可以找到平衡
16:36
to come up with plans and rules
335
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2427
制定计划和规则
16:38
to protect ourselves from unrealistic optimism,
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2783
不让自己成为不切实际的乐观的受害者,
16:41
but at the same time remain hopeful.
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3152
但同时保持内心充满希望的状态。
16:44
I think this cartoon portrays it nicely.
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我认为这幅卡通画很好的展示了这种观点。
16:48
Because if you're one of these pessimistic penguins up there
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3526
如果你是上面那些悲观的企鹅
16:51
who just does not believe they can fly,
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2119
根本不相信自己可以飞翔,
16:53
you certainly never will.
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2359
那你肯定永远也飞不起来。
16:56
Because to make any kind of progress,
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1831
我们必须有能力想象与现实不同的未来,
16:57
we need to be able to imagine a different reality,
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2350
相信我们的构想能够实现,
17:00
and then we need to believe that that reality is possible.
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3731
才能真正取得进展。
17:03
But if you are an extreme optimistic penguin
345
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3524
但是,如果你是一只极为乐观的企鹅
17:07
who just jumps down blindly hoping for the best,
346
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2762
听天由命的直接跳下悬崖,
17:10
you might find yourself in a bit of a mess when you hit the ground.
347
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4781
落地的时候场面恐怕不大好看。
17:15
But if you're an optimistic penguin
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1889
然而如果你是一只相信自己能飞
17:16
who believes they can fly,
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1796
的乐观企鹅
17:18
but then adjusts a parachute to your back
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2663
又背上了一个降落伞
17:21
just in case things don't work out exactly as you had planned,
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3017
以防事情的发展没有你想象的那么顺利,
17:24
you will soar like an eagle,
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你就会如雄鹰一般遨游天际,
17:26
even if you're just a penguin.
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3049
尽管你不过是只企鹅。
17:29
Thank you.
354
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谢谢。
17:31
(Applause)
355
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2936
(掌声)

Original video on YouTube.com
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