The optimism bias | Tali Sharot

551,354 views ใƒป 2012-05-14

TED


ูŠุฑุฌู‰ ุงู„ู†ู‚ุฑ ู†ู‚ุฑู‹ุง ู…ุฒุฏูˆุฌู‹ุง ููˆู‚ ุงู„ุชุฑุฌู…ุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ ุฃุฏู†ุงู‡ ู„ุชุดุบูŠู„ ุงู„ููŠุฏูŠูˆ.

00:00
Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast
0
0
7000
ุงู„ู…ุชุฑุฌู…: Issam B ุงู„ู…ุฏู‚ู‘ู‚: khalid marbou
00:15
I'm going to talk to you about optimism --
1
15408
3382
ุณุฃุญุฏุซูƒู… ุนู† ุงู„ุชูุงุคู„ -
00:18
or more precisely, the optimism bias.
2
18790
2483
ุฃูˆ ุจุดูƒู„ ุฃุฏู‚ุŒ ุงู„ู…ูŠู„ ู„ู„ุชูุงุคู„ .
00:21
It's a cognitive illusion
3
21273
1645
ุฅู†ู‡ ุนุจุงุฑุฉ ุนู† ูˆู‡ู… ุฐู‡ู†ูŠ
00:22
that we've been studying in my lab for the past few years,
4
22918
2742
ุนูƒูู†ุง ุนู„ู‰ ุฏุฑุงุณุชู‡ ููŠ ู…ุฎุชุจุฑูŠ ููŠ ุงู„ุณู†ูˆุงุช ุงู„ู‚ู„ูŠู„ุฉ ุงู„ู…ุงุถูŠุฉุŒ
00:25
and 80 percent of us have it.
5
25660
1735
ูˆ ูŠู…ู„ูƒู‡ 80% ู…ู†ุง.
00:27
It's our tendency to overestimate
6
27395
2734
ุฅู†ู‡ ู…ูŠู„ู†ุง ู„ู„ุฅูุฑุงุท ููŠ ุชู‚ุฏูŠุฑ
00:30
our likelihood of experiencing good events in our lives
7
30129
2923
ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุงู„ู…ุฑูˆุฑ ุจุธุฑูˆู ุญุณู†ุฉ ููŠ ุญูŠุงุชู†ุง
00:33
and underestimate our likelihood of experiencing bad events.
8
33052
4108
ูˆู„ู„ุชู‚ู„ูŠู„ ู…ู† ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุงู„ู…ุฑูˆุฑ ุจุธุฑูˆู ุณูŠุฆุฉ.
00:37
So we underestimate our likelihood of suffering from cancer,
9
37160
3017
ูู†ุญู† ู†ู‚ู„ู„ ุชู‚ุฏูŠุฑู†ุง ู„ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุฅุตุงุจุชู†ุง ุจุงู„ุณุฑุทุงู†ุŒ
00:40
being in a car accident.
10
40177
1506
ุฃูˆ ุงู„ูˆู‚ูˆุน ููŠ ุญุงุฏุซ ู…ุฑูˆุฑูŠ.
00:41
We overestimate our longevity, our career prospects.
11
41683
3186
ูˆ ู†ูุฑุท ููŠ ุชูˆู‚ุน ุนู…ุฑุทูˆูŠู„ุŒ ูˆ ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ ู…ู‡ู†ูŠ ุฒุงู‡ุฑ.
00:44
In short, we're more optimistic than realistic,
12
44869
3445
ุจุงุฎุชุตุงุฑุŒ ู†ุญู† ู…ุชูุงุฆู„ูˆู† ุฃูƒุซุฑ ู…ู…ุง ู†ุญู† ูˆุงู‚ุนูŠูˆู†ุŒ
00:48
but we are oblivious to the fact.
13
48314
2162
ูˆู„ูƒู†ู†ุง ุบุงูู„ูˆู† ุนู† ุงู„ุญู‚ูŠู‚ุฉ.
00:50
Take marriage for example.
14
50476
2227
ุฎุฐ ุงู„ุฒูˆุงุฌ ุนู„ู‰ ุณุจูŠู„ ุงู„ู…ุซุงู„.
00:52
In the Western world, divorce rates are about 40 percent.
15
52703
3534
ููŠ ุงู„ุนุงู„ู… ุงู„ุบุฑุจูŠุŒ ุชุตู„ ู†ุณุจุฉ ุงู„ุทู„ุงู‚ ุฅู„ู‰ 40 ููŠ ุงู„ู…ุงุฆุฉ ุชู‚ุฑูŠุจุงู‹.
00:56
That means that out of five married couples,
16
56237
3469
ู‡ุฐุง ูŠุนู†ูŠ ุฃู†ู‡ ู…ู† ูƒู„ ุฎู…ุณ ุฃุฒูˆุงุฌุŒ
00:59
two will end up splitting their assets.
17
59706
2721
ุณูŠู†ุชู‡ูŠ ุงู„ู…ุทุงู ุจุฅุซู†ูŠู† ู…ู†ู‡ู… ุฅู„ู‰ ุงู‚ุชุณุงู… ุฃู…ู„ุงูƒู‡ู…ุง.
01:02
But when you ask newlyweds about their own likelihood of divorce,
18
62427
3375
ูˆู„ูƒู† ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ุชุณุฃู„ ุงู„ุฃุฒูˆุงุฌ ุญุฏูŠุซูŠ ุงู„ุนู‡ุฏ ุนู† ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุทู„ุงู‚ู‡ู… ู‡ู… ุดุฎุตูŠุง
01:05
they estimate it at zero percent.
19
65802
3692
ูุฅู†ู‡ู… ูŠู‚ุฏุฑูˆู†ู‡ุง ุจู€ 0 ุจุงู„ู…ุงุฆุฉ.
01:09
And even divorce lawyers, who should really know better,
20
69494
3729
ุญุชู‰ ุงู„ู…ุญุงู…ูˆู† ุงู„ู…ุฎุชุตูˆู† ููŠ ุงู„ุทู„ุงู‚ุŒ ูˆ ุงู„ู…ูุชุฑุถ ุฃู† ูŠูƒูˆู†ูˆุง ุฃูƒุซุฑ ุงุทู„ุงุนุงุŒ
01:13
hugely underestimate their own likelihood of divorce.
21
73223
3849
ูŠู‚ู„ู„ูˆู† ุจุดูƒู„ ูƒุจูŠุฑ ู…ู† ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุทู„ุงู‚ู‡ู… ุดุฎุตูŠุง .
01:17
So it turns out that optimists are not less likely to divorce,
22
77072
3126
ุฅุฐุงู‹ุŒ ูŠุชุจูŠู† ุฃู†ู‘ ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุทู„ุงู‚ ุงู„ู…ุชูุงุฆู„ูŠูŠู† ู„ูŠุณุช ุฃู‚ู„ุŒ
01:20
but they are more likely to remarry.
23
80198
2530
ูˆู„ูƒู† ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุฒูˆุงุฌู‡ู… ู…ุฌุฏุฏุง ุฃูƒุจุฑ.
01:22
In the words of Samuel Johnson,
24
82728
2303
ูƒู…ุง ู‚ุงู„ ุณุงู…ูˆูŠู„ ุฌูˆู†ุณูˆู†ุŒ
01:25
"Remarriage is the triumph of hope over experience."
25
85031
3997
"ุงู„ุฒูˆุงุฌ ู…ุฌุฏุฏุง ู‡ูˆ ุงู†ุชุตุงุฑ ุงู„ุฃู…ู„ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุชุฌุฑุจุฉ".
01:29
(Laughter)
26
89028
1962
(ุถุญูƒ)
01:30
So if we're married, we're more likely to have kids.
27
90990
4574
ุฅุฐุงู‹ุŒ ุฅุฐุง ูƒู†ุง ู…ุชุฒูˆุฌูŠู† ูู…ู† ุงู„ู…ุฑุฌุญ ุฃู† ูŠูƒูˆู† ู„ุฏูŠู†ุง ุฃุทูุงู„.
01:35
And we all think our kids will be especially talented.
28
95564
3265
ูˆูƒู„ู†ุง ู†ุนุชู‚ุฏ ุจุฃู† ุฃุทูุงู„ู†ุง ุณูŠูƒูˆู†ูˆู† ู…ูˆู‡ูˆุจูŠู† ุจุดูƒู„ ุฎุงุต.
01:38
This, by the way, is my two-year-old nephew, Guy.
29
98829
2598
ู‡ุฐุงุŒ ุนู„ู‰ ููƒุฑุฉุŒ ู‡ูˆ ุงุจู† ุฃุฎูŠ "ุฌุงูŠ" ุฐูˆ ุงู„ุณู†ุชูŠู†.
01:41
And I just want to make it absolutely clear
30
101427
2375
ูˆุฃุฑูŠุฏ ุฃู† ุฃูˆุถู‘ุญ ุจุดูƒู„ ุชุงู…
01:43
that he's a really bad example of the optimism bias,
31
103802
2771
ุฃู†ู‡ู ู…ุซุงู„ ุณูŠู‘ุก ุชู…ุงู…ุงู‹ ุนู† ุงู„ู…ูŠู„ ู„ู„ุชูุงุฆู„ุŒ
01:46
because he is in fact uniquely talented.
32
106573
2812
ู„ุฃู†ู‡ ููŠ ุงู„ุญู‚ูŠู‚ุฉ ู…ูˆู‡ูˆุจ ุจุดูƒู„ ูุฑูŠุฏ ู…ู† ู†ูˆุนู‡.
01:49
(Laughter)
33
109385
1435
(ุถุญูƒ)
01:50
And I'm not alone.
34
110820
1607
ูˆุฃู†ุง ู„ุณุช ุงู„ูˆุญูŠุฏุฉ.
01:52
Out of four British people, three said
35
112427
2475
ู…ู† ูƒู„ ุฃุฑุจุนุฉ ุฃุดุฎุงุต ุจุฑูŠุทุงู†ูŠูŠู†ุŒ ุซู„ุงุซุฉ ู‚ุงู„ูˆุง
01:54
that they were optimistic about the future of their own families.
36
114902
3739
ุจุฃู†ู‡ู… ู…ุชูุงุฆู„ูˆู† ุจู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ ุนุงุฆู„ุงุชู‡ู….
01:58
That's 75 percent.
37
118641
1751
ุฃูŠ 75% ู…ู†ู‡ู….
02:00
But only 30 percent said
38
120392
2058
ูˆู„ูƒู† 30% ู…ู†ู‡ู… ูู‚ุท ู‚ุงู„ูˆุง
02:02
that they thought families in general
39
122450
2560
ุจุฃู†ู‡ู… ูŠุนุชู‚ุฏูˆู† ุจุดูƒู„ ุนุงู… ุฃู†ู‘ ุงู„ุนุงุฆู„ุงุช
02:05
are doing better than a few generations ago.
40
125010
2412
ุงู„ุขู† ุจูˆุถุน ุฃูุถู„ ู…ู†ู‡ ู…ู‚ุงุฑู†ุฉ ุจุจุถุน ุฃุฌูŠุงู„ ู…ุถุช.
02:07
And this is a really important point,
41
127422
2021
ูˆู‡ุฐู‡ ู†ู‚ุทุฉ ู…ู‡ู…ุฉ ุฌุฏุงู‹ุŒ
02:09
because we're optimistic about ourselves,
42
129443
1888
ู„ุฃู†ู†ุง ู…ุชูุงุฆู„ูˆู† ุจุฎุตูˆุต ุฃู†ูุณู†ุงุŒ
02:11
we're optimistic about our kids,
43
131331
1818
ู…ุชูุงุฆู„ูˆู† ุจุฎุตูˆุต ุฃุทูุงู„ู†ุงุŒ
02:13
we're optimistic about our families,
44
133149
1788
ู…ุชูุงุฆู„ูˆู† ุจุฎุตูˆุต ุนุงุฆู„ุงุชู†ุงุŒ
02:14
but we're not so optimistic about the guy sitting next to us,
45
134937
3183
ูˆู„ูƒู†ู†ุง ู„ุณู†ุง ู…ุชูุงุฆู„ูŠู† ุจู†ูุณ ุงู„ุดูƒู„ ุจุฎุตูˆุต ุงู„ุดุฎุต ุงู„ุฌุงู„ุณ ุจุฌูˆุงุฑู†ุงุŒ
02:18
and we're somewhat pessimistic
46
138120
2229
ูˆู…ุชุดุงุฆู…ูˆู† ุจุนุถ ุงู„ุดูŠุก
02:20
about the fate of our fellow citizens and the fate of our country.
47
140349
3879
ุจุฎุตูˆุต ู…ุตูŠุฑ ู…ูˆุงุทู†ูŠู†ุง ูˆู…ุตูŠุฑ ุจู„ุฏู†ุง.
02:24
But private optimism about our own personal future
48
144228
4036
ู„ูƒู† ุงู„ุชูุงุคู„ ุงู„ูุฑุฏูŠ ุจุฎุตูˆุต ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ู†ุง ุงู„ุฎุงุต
02:28
remains persistent.
49
148264
2011
ูŠุจู‚ู‰ ุฑุงุณุฎุง.
02:30
And it doesn't mean that we think things will magically turn out okay,
50
150275
4066
ูˆ ู‡ุฐุง ู„ุง ูŠุนู†ูŠ ุฃู†ู†ุง ู†ุนุชู‚ุฏ ุจุฃู† ุงู„ุฃู…ูˆุฑ ุณุชุชุญุณู† ุจุทุฑูŠู‚ุฉ ุณุญุฑูŠุฉุŒ
02:34
but rather that we have the unique ability to make it so.
51
154341
4032
ุจู„ ู†ุนุชู‚ุฏ ุจุฃู† ู„ุฏูŠู†ุง ุงู„ู‚ุฏุฑุฉ ุงู„ูุฑูŠุฏุฉ ุนู„ู‰ ุฌุนู„ู‡ุง ูƒุฐู„ูƒ.
02:38
Now I'm a scientist, I do experiments.
52
158373
2841
ุฃู†ุง ุจุงุญุซุฉุŒ ูˆุฃู‚ูˆู… ุจุชุฌุงุฑุจ.
02:41
So to show you what I mean,
53
161214
1792
ูˆู„ุฃูˆุถู‘ุญ ู„ูƒู… ู…ุง ุฃู‚ุตุฏุŒ
02:43
I'm going to do an experiment here with you.
54
163006
2802
ุณุฃู‚ูˆู… ุจุนู…ู„ ุชุฌุฑุจุฉ ู‡ู†ุง ู…ุนูƒู… .
02:45
So I'm going to give you a list of abilities and characteristics,
55
165808
3850
ุณุฃุนุทูŠูƒู… ู‚ุงุฆู…ุฉ ุชุญุชูˆูŠ ุนู„ู‰ ู‚ุฏุฑุงุชู ูˆ ูุตูุงุชุŒ
02:49
and I want you to think for each of these abilities
56
169658
2894
ูˆุฃุฑูŠุฏูƒู… ุฃู† ุชููƒุฑูˆุงุŒ ุจุฎุตูˆุต ูƒู„ ูˆุงุญุฏุฉ ู…ู† ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู‚ุฏุฑุงุชุŒ
02:52
where you stand relative to the rest of the population.
57
172552
4393
ุฃูŠู† ุชุชู…ูˆุถุนูˆู† ุจุงู„ู†ุณุจุฉ ู„ุจู‚ูŠุฉ ุงู„ุณูƒุงู†.
02:56
The first one is getting along well with others.
58
176945
3786
ุฃูˆู„ ูˆุงุญุฏุฉ ู‡ูŠ ุงู„ู…ู‚ุฏุฑุฉ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุฃู„ูุฉ (ุงู„ุชูุงู‡ู… ู…ุน ุงู„ุฃุฎุฑูŠู†)
03:00
Who here believes they're at the bottom 25 percent?
59
180731
5652
ู…ู† ู…ู†ูƒู… ู‡ู†ุง ูŠุนุชู‚ุฏ ุจุฃู†ู‡ ู…ู† ุจูŠู† ุงู„ู€ 25% ุงู„ุฃู‚ู„ ุญุธุงู‹ุŸ
03:06
Okay, that's about 10 people out of 1,500.
60
186383
4322
ุญุณู†ุงู‹ุŒ ู‡ุฐุง ุญูˆุงู„ูŠ 10 ุฃุดุฎุงุต ู…ู† ุจูŠู† 1500.
03:10
Who believes they're at the top 25 percent?
61
190705
4013
ู…ู† ูŠุนุชู‚ุฏ ุจุฃู†ู‡ ู…ู† ุจูŠู† ุงู„ู€ 25% ุงู„ุฃุนู„ู‰ ุญุธุงู‹ุŸ
03:14
That's most of us here.
62
194718
2710
ุฐู„ูƒ ู…ุนุธู…ู†ุง ู‡ู†ุง.
03:17
Okay, now do the same for your driving ability.
63
197428
4930
ุญุณู†ุงู‹ุŒ ุงู„ุขู† ุงูุนู„ูˆุง ุงู„ุฃู…ุฑ ู†ูุณู‡ ุจุงู„ู†ุณุจุฉ ู„ู„ู‚ุฏุฑุฉ ุนู„ู‰ ู‚ูŠุงุฏุฉ ุงู„ุณูŠุงุฑุฉ.
03:22
How interesting are you?
64
202358
2583
ู…ุง ู…ู‚ุฏุงุฑ ุฃู‡ู…ูŠุชูƒุŸ
03:24
How attractive are you?
65
204941
2844
ูˆ ู…ุง ู‚ุฏุฑ ุฌุงุฐุจูŠุชูƒุŸ
03:27
How honest are you?
66
207785
2954
ูˆูƒู… ุฃู†ุช ุดุฑูŠู ุงู„ุฎูู„ูู‚ุŸ
03:30
And finally, how modest are you?
67
210739
5000
ูˆุฃุฎูŠุฑุงู‹ุŒ ู…ุง ู‚ุฏุฑ ุชูˆุงุถุนูƒุŸ
03:35
So most of us put ourselves above average
68
215739
2688
ุฅุฐุงู‹ุŒ ู…ุนุธู…ู†ุง ูŠุตู†ู‘ู ู†ูุณู‡ ููˆู‚ ุงู„ู…ุนุฏู‘ู„
03:38
on most of these abilities.
69
218427
2029
ุจุงู„ู†ุณุจุฉ ู„ู…ุนุธู… ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู‚ุฏุฑุงุช.
03:40
Now this is statistically impossible.
70
220456
2131
ุญุณู†ุงู‹ุŒ ู‡ุฐุง ู…ุณุชุญูŠู„ ุฅุญุตุงุฆูŠุงู‹ .
03:42
We can't all be better than everyone else.
71
222587
3229
ู„ุง ูŠู…ูƒู† ุฃู† ูŠูƒูˆู† ุฌู…ูŠุนู†ุง ุฃูุถู„ ู…ู† ูƒู„ ุงู„ุฃูุฑุงุฏ ุงู„ุฃุฎุฑูŠู†.
03:45
(Laughter)
72
225816
1642
(ุถุญูƒ)
03:47
But if we believe we're better than the other guy,
73
227458
2677
ูˆู„ูƒู† ุฅุฐุง ุงุนุชู‚ุฏ ูƒู„ู‘ูŒ ู…ู†ุง ุฃู†ู‡ ุฃูุถู„ ู…ู† ุงู„ุดุฎุต ุงู„ุขุฎุฑุŒ
03:50
well that means that we're more likely to get that promotion, to remain married,
74
230135
4083
ูุฐู„ูƒ ูŠุนู†ูŠ ุฃู†ู‡ ู…ู† ุงู„ู…ุฑุฌู‘ุญ ุฃู† ู†ุญุตู„ ุนู„ู‰ ุชุฑู‚ูŠุฉุŒ ุฃู† ู†ุจู‚ู‰ ู…ุชุฒูˆุฌูŠู†ุŒ
03:54
because we're more social, more interesting.
75
234218
2598
ู„ุฃู†ู†ุง ุงุฌุชู…ุงุนูŠูˆู† ุฃูƒุซุฑุŒ ูˆ ุฃูƒุซุฑ ุฃู‡ู…ูŠุฉ.
03:56
And it's a global phenomenon.
76
236816
2163
ูˆุชู„ูƒ ุธุงู‡ุฑุฉ ุนุงู„ู…ูŠุฉ.
03:58
The optimism bias has been observed
77
238979
2468
ุงู„ู…ูŠู„ ู„ู„ุชูุงุฆู„ ู„ูˆุญุธ
04:01
in many different countries --
78
241447
1719
ููŠ ุนุฏุฉ ุฏูˆู„ ู…ุฎุชู„ูุฉ -
04:03
in Western cultures, in non-Western cultures,
79
243166
3104
ููŠ ุซู‚ุงูุงุช ุบุฑุจูŠุฉ ูˆุบูŠุฑ ุบุฑุจูŠุฉุŒ
04:06
in females and males,
80
246270
1506
ููŠ ุงู„ุฅู†ุงุซ ูˆุงู„ุฐูƒูˆุฑุŒ
04:07
in kids, in the elderly.
81
247776
1724
ููŠ ุงู„ุตุบุงุฑ ูˆุงู„ูƒุจุงุฑ.
04:09
It's quite widespread.
82
249500
1783
ุฅู†ู‡ ุฌุฏ ู…ู†ุชุดุฑ.
04:11
But the question is, is it good for us?
83
251283
3500
ูˆู„ูƒู† ุงู„ุณุคุงู„ ุงู„ุฐูŠ ูŠูุทุฑุญุŒ ู‡ู„ ู‡ูˆ ููŠ ุตุงู„ุญู†ุงุŸ
04:14
So some people say no.
84
254783
2454
ุจุนุถ ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ูŠู‚ูˆู„ูˆู† ู„ุง.
04:17
Some people say the secret to happiness
85
257237
2518
ุงู„ุจุนุถ ูŠู‚ูˆู„ ุณุฑ ุงู„ุณุนุงุฏุฉ
04:19
is low expectations.
86
259755
2753
ู‡ูˆ ุงู„ุชูˆู‚ุนุงุช ุงู„ู…ุชูˆุงุถุนุฉ.
04:22
I think the logic goes something like this:
87
262508
2504
ุฃุนุชู‚ุฏ ุฃู† ุงู„ู…ู†ุทู‚ ููŠ ุฐู„ูƒ ู‡ูˆ ูƒุงู„ุขุชูŠ:
04:25
If we don't expect greatness,
88
265012
2258
ุฅุฐุง ู„ู… ู†ุชูˆู‚ุน ุงู„ุนุธู…ุฉุŒ
04:27
if we don't expect to find love and be healthy and successful,
89
267270
3880
ุฅุฐุง ู„ู… ู†ุชูˆู‚ุน ุฃู† ู†ุฌุฏ ุงู„ุญุจ ูˆ ู†ูƒูˆู† ุจุตุญุฉ ุฌูŠุฏุฉ ูˆ ู†ุงุฌุญูŠูŠู†ุŒ
04:31
well we're not going to be disappointed when these things don't happen.
90
271150
3098
ู„ู† ูŠุฎูŠุจ ุฃู…ู„ู†ุง ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ู„ุง ุชุญุฏุซ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุฃุดุจุงุก.
04:34
And if we're not disappointed when good things don't happen,
91
274248
3408
ูˆุฅุฐุง ู„ู… ู†ุตุจ ุจุฎูŠุจุฉ ุฃู…ู„ ู„ุนุฏู… ุญุฏูˆุซ ุงู„ุฎูŠุฑุŒ
04:37
and we're pleasantly surprised when they do,
92
277656
1979
ูˆู†ุชูุงุฌุฃ ูู†ุณุฑู‘ ุจุญุฏูˆุซู‡ุงุŒ
04:39
we will be happy.
93
279635
1781
ุนู†ุฏู‡ุง ุณู†ูƒูˆู† ุณุนุฏุงุก.
04:41
So it's a very good theory,
94
281416
1702
ุญุณู†ุงู‹ุŒ ุฅู†ู‡ุง ู†ุธุฑูŠุฉ ุฌูŠุฏุฉ ุฌุฏุงู‹ุŒ
04:43
but it turns out to be wrong for three reasons.
95
283118
3027
ูˆู„ูƒู† ูŠุชุจูŠู† ุฃู†ู‡ุง ุฎุงุทุฆุฉ ู„ุซู„ุงุซ ุฃุณุจุงุจ.
04:46
Number one: Whatever happens, whether you succeed or you fail,
96
286145
4615
ุฃูˆู„ุงู‹: ุจุบุถ ุงู„ู†ุธุฑ ุนู…ู‘ุง ูŠุญุตู„ ุŒ ุณูˆุงุก ู†ุฌุญุช ุฃู… ุฃุฎูู‚ุชุŒ
04:50
people with high expectations always feel better.
97
290760
3858
ุฃุตุญุงุจ ุงู„ุชูˆู‚ุนุงุช ุงู„ุนุงู„ูŠุฉ ู‡ู… ุฃูƒุซุฑ ุงุฑุชูŠุงุญุงู‹.
04:54
Because how we feel when we get dumped or win employee of the month
98
294618
3932
ู„ุฃู† ู…ุง ู†ุดุนุฑ ุจู‡ ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ูŠุชุฎู„ู‘ู‰ ุนู†ุง ุฃุญุจุชู†ุง ุฃูˆ ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ู†ููˆุฒ ุจุดู‡ุงุฏุฉ "ุฃุญุณู† ู…ูˆุธู ููŠ ุงู„ุดู‡ุฑ"
04:58
depends on how we interpret that event.
99
298550
3030
ูŠุนุชู…ุฏ ุนู„ู‰ ูƒูŠููŠุฉ ุชูุณูŠุฑู†ุง ู„ุฐู„ูƒ ุงู„ุญุฏุซ.
05:01
The psychologists Margaret Marshall and John Brown
100
301580
4050
ุนุงู„ู…ุง ุงู„ู†ูุณ ู…ุงุฑุฌุฑูŠุช ู…ุงุฑุดุงู„ ูˆ ุฌูˆู† ุจุฑุงูˆู†
05:05
studied students with high and low expectations.
101
305630
2994
ุฏุฑุณุง ุทูู„ุงุจุง ุฐูˆูŠ ุชูˆู‚ุนุงุช ุนุงู„ูŠุฉ ูˆ ู…ู†ุฎูุถุฉ.
05:08
And they found that when people with high expectations succeed,
102
308624
4184
ููˆุฌุฏุง ุฃู†ู‡ ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ูŠู†ุฌุญ ุฃุตุญุงุจ ุงู„ุชูˆู‚ุนุงุช ุงู„ุนุงู„ูŠุฉุŒ
05:12
they attribute that success to their own traits.
103
312808
2910
ูุฅู†ู‡ู… ุจู†ุณุจูˆู† ุฐู„ูƒ ุงู„ู†ุฌุงุญ ุฅู„ู‰ ุตูุงุชู‡ู… ุงู„ูุฑุฏูŠุฉ.
05:15
"I'm a genius, therefore I got an A,
104
315718
2196
ุฃู†ุง ุนุจู‚ุฑูŠุŒ ู„ุฐู„ูƒ ุญุตู„ุช ุนู„ู‰ ุฏุฑุฌุฉ ุงู„ุชู…ูŠู‘ุฒุŒ
05:17
therefore I'll get an A again and again in the future."
105
317914
2675
ูˆ ู„ุฐู„ูƒ ุณุฃุญุตู„ ุนู„ูŠู‡ุง ู…ุฑุงุช ูˆู…ุฑุงุช ุฃุฎุฑู‰ ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ุงู‹."
05:20
When they failed, it wasn't because they were dumb,
106
320589
2973
ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ุฃุฎูู‚ูˆุงุŒ ู„ู… ูŠูƒู† ุฐู„ูƒ ู„ุฃู†ู‡ู… ูƒุงู†ูˆุง ุฃุบุจูŠุงุกุŒ
05:23
but because the exam just happened to be unfair.
107
323562
3173
ุจู„ ูู‚ุท ู„ุฃู† ุงู„ุงุฎุชุจุงุฑ ูƒุงู† ุบูŠุฑ ุนุงุฏู„ุงู‹.
05:26
Next time they will do better.
108
326735
2283
ููŠ ุงู„ู…ุฑุฉ ุงู„ู‚ุงุฏู…ุฉ ุณูŠูƒูˆู† ุฃุฏุงุคู‡ู… ุฃูุถู„.
05:29
People with low expectations do the opposite.
109
329018
3077
ุฃุตุญุงุจ ุงู„ุชูˆู‚ุนุงุช ุงู„ู…ู†ุฎูุถุฉ ูŠูุนู„ูˆู† ุงู„ุนูƒุณ.
05:32
So when they failed it was because they were dumb,
110
332095
2832
ูู„ู…ู‘ุง ุฃุฎูู‚ูˆุง ูƒุงู† ุฐู„ูƒ ุจุณุจุจ ุบุจุงุฆู‡ู…
05:34
and when they succeeded
111
334927
1500
ูˆุนู†ุฏู…ุง ู†ุฌุญูˆุง
05:36
it was because the exam just happened to be really easy.
112
336427
3317
ูƒุงู† ุฐู„ูƒ ู„ุฃู†ู‡ ุชุตุงุฏู ูˆูƒุงู† ุงู„ุงุฎุชุจุงุฑ ุณู‡ู„ุงู‹.
05:39
Next time reality would catch up with them.
113
339744
2401
ููŠ ุงู„ู…ุฑุฉ ุงู„ู‚ุงุฏู…ุฉ ุณูŠุณุชุฏุฑูƒู‡ู… ุงู„ูˆุงู‚ุน.
05:42
So they felt worse.
114
342145
2073
ูˆู„ุฐู„ูƒ ูŠุณุชุงุก ุดุนูˆุฑู‡ู….
05:44
Number two: Regardless of the outcome,
115
344218
3240
ุซุงู†ูŠุงู‹ุŒ ุจุบุถ ุงู„ู†ุธุฑ ุนู† ุงู„ู…ุขู„ุŒ
05:47
the pure act of anticipation makes us happy.
116
347458
4047
ู…ุฌุฑุฏ ุงู„ุชุฑู‚ู‘ุจ ูŠุฌุนู„ู†ุง ุณุนุฏุงุก.
05:51
The behavioral economist George Lowenstein
117
351505
3176
ุนุงู„ู… ุงู„ุณู„ูˆูƒ ุงู„ุงู‚ุชุตุงุฏูŠ ุฌูˆุฑุฌ ู„ูˆููŠู†ุณุชูŠู†
05:54
asked students in his university
118
354681
1719
ุณุฃู„ ุทู„ุงุจุง ููŠ ุฌุงู…ุนุชู‡
05:56
to imagine getting a passionate kiss from a celebrity, any celebrity.
119
356400
4362
ุฃู† ูŠุชุฎูŠู„ูˆุง ุงู„ุญุตูˆู„ ุนู„ู‰ ู‚ุจู„ุฉ ุญุงุฑุฉ ู…ู† ุฃุญุฏ ุงู„ู…ุดุงู‡ูŠุฑุŒ ุฃูŠู‘ุง ูƒุงู†.
06:00
Then he said, "How much are you willing to pay
120
360762
2885
ูˆุจุนุฏ ุฐู„ูƒ ุณุฃู„ู‡ู… : "ูƒู… ู…ู† ุงู„ู…ุงู„ ุฃู†ุชู… ู…ุณุชุนุฏูˆู† ุฃู† ุชุฏูุนูˆุง
06:03
to get a kiss from a celebrity
121
363647
1988
ู„ุชุญุตู„ูˆุง ุนู„ู‰ ู‚ุจู„ุฉ ู…ู† ุฃุญุฏ ุงู„ู…ุดุงู‡ูŠุฑ
06:05
if the kiss was delivered immediately,
122
365635
2227
ู„ูˆ ุฃู†ู‡ ู‚ุจู‘ู„ูƒู… ุญุงู„ุงู‹ุŸ
06:07
in three hours, in 24 hours, in three days,
123
367862
5023
ุจุนุฏ 3 ุณุงุนุงุชุŸ ุจุนุฏ 24 ุณุงุนุฉุŸ ุจุนุฏ ุซู„ุงุซุฉ ุฃูŠุงู…ุŸ
06:12
in one year, in 10 years?
124
372885
2433
ุจุนุฏ ุณู†ุฉุŸ ูˆุจุนุฏ 10 ุณู†ูŠู†ุŸ
06:15
He found that the students were willing to pay the most
125
375318
3130
ูˆุฌุฏ ุฃู†ู‘ ุงู„ุทู„ุงุจ ูƒุงู†ูˆุง ู…ุณุชุนุฏูŠู† ู„ุฏูุน ุฃูƒุจุฑ ู‚ุฏุฑ ู…ู† ุงู„ู…ุงู„
06:18
not to get a kiss immediately,
126
378448
1999
ู„ุง ู„ู„ุญุตูˆู„ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ู‚ุจู„ุฉ ุญุงู„ุงู‹ุŒ
06:20
but to get a kiss in three days.
127
380447
2980
ู„ูƒู† ู„ู„ุญุตูˆู„ ุนู„ูŠู‡ุง ุจุนุฏ ุซู„ุงุซุฉ ุฃูŠุงู….
06:23
They were willing to pay extra in order to wait.
128
383427
4247
ูƒุงู†ูˆุง ุนู„ู‰ ุงุณุชุนุฏุงุฏู ู„ุฏูุน ุงู„ู…ุฒูŠุฏ ุญุชู‰ ูŠู†ุชุธุฑูˆุง.
06:27
Now they weren't willing to wait a year or 10 years;
129
387674
3003
ุญุณู†ุงู‹ุŒ ู„ู… ูŠูƒูˆู†ูˆุง ู…ุณุชุนุฏูŠู† ู„ู„ุงู†ุชุธุงุฑ ู„ุณู†ุฉ ุฃูˆ ู„ุนุดุฑ ุณู†ูˆุงุช.
06:30
no one wants an aging celebrity.
130
390677
1421
ู„ุง ุฃุญุฏ ูŠุฑุบุจ ููŠ ู…ุดู‡ูˆุฑู ููŠ ุดูŠุฎูˆุฎุชู‡.
06:32
But three days seemed to be the optimum amount.
131
392098
4789
ูˆู„ูƒู† ุจุฏุง ุฃู† ุซู„ุงุซุฉ ุฃูŠุงู… ู‡ูŠ ุงู„ู‚ุฏุฑ ุงู„ุฃู…ุซู„.
06:36
So why is that?
132
396887
2303
ูู„ู…ุงุฐุง ุงู„ุฃู…ูˆุฑู‡ูŠ ู‡ูƒุฐุงุŸ
06:39
Well if you get the kiss now, it's over and done with.
133
399190
3424
ุฅุฐุง ุญุตู„ุช ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ู‚ุจู„ุฉ ุงู„ุขู†ุŒ ูุงู„ุฃู…ุฑ ุงู†ุชู‡ู‰ ูˆ ููุฑุบ ู…ู†ู‡.
06:42
But if you get the kiss in three days,
134
402614
1950
ุฃู…ู‘ุง ุฅู† ูƒู†ุช ุณุชุญุตู„ ุนู„ูŠู‡ุง ุจุนุฏ ุซู„ุงุซุฉ ุฃูŠุงู…ุŒ
06:44
well that's three days of jittery anticipation, the thrill of the wait.
135
404564
4154
ูุชู„ูƒ ุซู„ุงุซุฉ ุฃูŠุงู… ู…ู† ุงู„ุฅุณุชุจุงู‚ ุงู„ู…ุชูˆุชุฑุŒ ูˆู…ู† ู†ุดูˆุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุชุธุงุฑ.
06:48
The students wanted that time
136
408718
1869
ุฃุฑุงุฏ ุงู„ุทู„ุงุจ ุฐู„ูƒ ุงู„ูˆู‚ุช
06:50
to imagine where is it going to happen,
137
410587
2381
ู„ูƒูŠ ูŠุชุฎูŠู„ูˆุง ุฃูŠู† ุณุชุญุตู„
06:52
how is it going to happen.
138
412968
1629
ูˆูƒูŠู ุณุชุญุตู„.
06:54
Anticipation made them happy.
139
414597
2211
ุฌุนู„ู‡ู… ุงู„ุงุณุชุจุงู‚ ุณุนุฏุงุก.
06:56
This is, by the way, why people prefer Friday to Sunday.
140
416808
3869
ูˆุฐู„ูƒุŒ ุนู„ู‰ ููƒุฑุฉุŒ ุณุจุจ ุชูุถูŠู„ ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ู„ูŠูˆู… ุงู„ุฌู…ุนุฉ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุฃุญุฏ.
07:00
It's a really curious fact,
141
420677
2083
ู‡ุฐุง ูุนู„ุง ูˆุงู‚ุน ุบุฑูŠุจุŒ
07:02
because Friday is a day of work and Sunday is a day of pleasure,
142
422760
3417
ู„ุฃู† ุงู„ุฌู…ุนุฉ ูŠูˆู… ุนู…ู„ ูˆ ุงู„ุฃุญุฏ ูŠูˆู… ุงุณุชู…ุชุงุนุŒ
07:06
so you'd assume that people will prefer Sunday,
143
426177
2904
ูู„ุฃูˆู„ ูˆู‡ู„ุฉ ูŠููุชุฑูŽุถ ุฃู†ู‘ ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ูŠูุถู‘ู„ูˆู† ูŠูˆู… ุงู„ุฃุญุฏุŒ
07:09
but they don't.
144
429081
1721
ูˆู„ูƒู†ู‡ู… ู„ุง ูŠูุถู„ูˆู†ู‡.
07:10
It's not because they really, really like being in the office
145
430802
2875
ู„ุง ู„ุฅู†ู‡ู… ูุนู„ุง ูŠุนุดู‚ูˆู† ุงู„ุชูˆุงุฌุฏ ุจุงู„ู…ูƒุชุจ
07:13
and they can't stand strolling in the park
146
433677
1967
ูˆ ู„ุง ูŠุทูŠู‚ูˆู† ุงู„ุชุฌูˆุงู„ ููŠ ุงู„ู…ุชู†ุฒู‡ุงุช
07:15
or having a lazy brunch.
147
435644
1661
ุฃูˆ ุชุชุงูˆู„ ูˆุฌุจุฉ ูุทูˆุฑ ู…ุชุฃุฎุฑุฉ ุจุชูƒุงุณู„.
07:17
We know that, because when you ask people
148
437305
2136
ู†ุนู„ู… ู‡ุฐุง ู„ุฃู†ู‡ ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ุชุณุฃู„ ุงู„ู†ุงุณ
07:19
about their ultimate favorite day of the week,
149
439441
2704
ุนู† ูŠูˆู…ู‡ู… ุงู„ู…ูุถู„ ููŠ ุงู„ุฃุณุจูˆุน ุฏูˆู† ู…ู†ุงุฒุนุŒ
07:22
surprise, surprise, Saturday comes in at first,
150
442145
2820
ู…ูุงุฌุฆุฉ ! ูŠุญู„ ูŠูˆู… ุงู„ุณุจุช ุฃูˆู„ุงู‹ุŒ
07:24
then Friday, then Sunday.
151
444965
2920
ุซู… ูŠูˆู… ุงู„ุฌู…ุนุฉ ูˆ ูŠู„ูŠู‡ ูŠูˆู… ุงู„ุฃุญุฏ.
07:27
People prefer Friday
152
447885
1869
ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ูŠูุถู„ูˆู† ูŠูˆู… ุงู„ุฌู…ุนุฉ
07:29
because Friday brings with it the anticipation of the weekend ahead,
153
449754
3964
ู„ุฃู† ูŠูˆู… ุงู„ุฌู…ุนุฉ ูŠุฌู„ุจ ู…ุนู‡ ุงุณุชุจุงู‚ุง ู„ู†ู‡ุงูŠุฉ ุงู„ุฃุณุจูˆุน ุงู„ู…ู‚ุจู„
07:33
all the plans that you have.
154
453718
1917
ูˆู…ุง ุญูˆู‰ ู…ู† ุชุฑุชูŠุจุงุช.
07:35
On Sunday, the only thing you can look forward to
155
455635
2704
ููŠ ูŠูˆู… ุงู„ุฃุญุฏุŒ ุงู„ุฃู…ุฑ ุงู„ูˆุญูŠุฏ ุงู„ุฐูŠ ุชุชุทู„ุน ุฅู„ูŠู‡
07:38
is the work week.
156
458339
2254
ู‡ูˆ ุฃุณุจูˆุน ู…ู† ุงู„ุนู…ู„.
07:40
So optimists are people who expect more kisses in their future,
157
460593
4877
ูุงู„ู…ุชูุงุฆู„ูˆู† ู‡ู… ุฃู†ุงุณ ูŠุชุฑู‚ุจูˆู† ู‚ุจู„ุงุช ุฃูƒุซุฑ ุจุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ุŒ
07:45
more strolls in the park.
158
465470
1921
ูˆุฌูˆู„ุงุช ุฃูƒุซุฑ ููŠ ุงู„ู…ุชู†ุฒู‡ุงุช.
07:47
And that anticipation enhances their wellbeing.
159
467391
3907
ูˆูŠุฏุนู… ุฐุงูƒ ุงู„ุงุณุชุจุงู‚ ุฑุงุญุชู‡ู… ุงู„ู†ูุณูŠุฉ.
07:51
In fact, without the optimism bias,
160
471298
2964
ููŠ ุงู„ุญู‚ูŠู‚ุฉุŒ ู…ู† ุฏูˆู† ุงู„ู…ูŠู„ ู„ู„ุชูุงุคู„ุŒ
07:54
we would all be slightly depressed.
161
474262
2750
ู‚ุฏ ูŠุนุชุฑูŠู†ุง ุดูŠุฆ ู…ู† ุงู„ุฅุญุจุงุท.
07:57
People with mild depression,
162
477012
2267
ุงู„ุฃุดุฎุงุต ุงู„ุฐูŠู† ู„ุฏูŠู‡ู… ุฅุญุจุงุท ู…ุนุชุฏู„ุŒ
07:59
they don't have a bias when they look into the future.
163
479279
2979
ู„ูŠุณ ู„ุฏูŠู‡ู… ุฃูŠู‘ ู…ูŠู„ ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ูŠู†ุธุฑูˆู† ุฅู„ูŠ ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„.
08:02
They're actually more realistic than healthy individuals.
164
482258
4222
ู‡ู… ุฃุดุฎุงุต ูˆุงู‚ุนูŠูˆู† ุฃูƒุซุฑ ู…ู†ู‡ู… ุฐูˆูŠ ุณู„ูˆูƒ ุตุญู‘ูŠ.
08:06
But individuals with severe depression,
165
486480
2101
ู„ูƒู† ุงู„ุฃุดุฎุงุต ุงู„ุฐูŠู† ู„ุฏูŠู‡ู… ุฅุญุจุงุท ุดุฏูŠุฏุŒ
08:08
they have a pessimistic bias.
166
488581
1829
ูŠู…ู„ูƒูˆู† ู…ูŠู„ุงู‹ ู„ู„ุชุดุงุคู….
08:10
So they tend to expect the future
167
490410
2463
ูู‡ู… ูŠู…ูŠู„ูˆู† ู„ุชูˆู‚ุน ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ู
08:12
to be worse than it ends up being.
168
492873
2477
ุฃุณูˆุก ู…ู…ุง ุณูŠุญุตู„ ููŠ ู†ู‡ุงูŠุฉ ุงู„ู…ุทุงู.
08:15
So optimism changes subjective reality.
169
495350
3243
ูุงู„ุชุดุงุคู… ูŠุบูŠู‘ุฑ ุงู„ูˆุงู‚ุน ุงู„ุฐุงุชูŠ.
08:18
The way we expect the world to be changes the way we see it.
170
498593
3750
ุงู„ุทุฑูŠู‚ุฉ ุงู„ุชูŠ ู†ุชูˆู‚ุน ุฃู† ูŠูƒูˆู† ุนู„ูŠู‡ุง ุงู„ุนุงู„ู… ุชูุบูŠู‘ุฑ ุงู„ุทุฑูŠู‚ุฉ ุงู„ุชูŠ ู†ุฑุงู‡ ุจู‡ุง.
08:22
But it also changes objective reality.
171
502343
3242
ู„ูƒู†ู‡ุง ุชุบูŠู‘ุฑ ุงู„ูˆุงู‚ุน ุงู„ู…ูˆุถูˆุนูŠ.
08:25
It acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy.
172
505585
2727
ุชุนู…ู„ ูˆ ูƒุฃู†ู‡ุง ุฑุคูŠุง ู‚ุฏ ุชุญู‚ู‚ุช ูุนู„ุงู‹.
08:28
And that is the third reason
173
508312
2068
ูˆ ู‡ุฐุง ู‡ูˆ ุงู„ุณุจุจ ุงู„ุซุงู„ุซ
08:30
why lowering your expectations will not make you happy.
174
510380
3180
ุงู„ุฐูŠ ู…ู† ุฃุฌู„ู‡ ู„ุง ูŠุฌุนู„ูƒ ุชู‚ู„ูŠู„ ุงู„ุชูˆู‚ุนุงุช ุณุนูŠุฏุงู‹.
08:33
Controlled experiments have shown
175
513560
1835
ุจูŠู‘ู†ุช ุงู„ุชุฌุงุฑุจ ุงู„ู…ุชุญูƒู‘ู… ููŠู‡ุง
08:35
that optimism is not only related to success,
176
515395
2917
ุจุฃู† ุงู„ุชูุงุคู„ ู„ุง ูŠุฑุชุจุท ูู‚ุท ุจุงู„ู†ุฌุงุญุŒ
08:38
it leads to success.
177
518312
1807
ุจู„ ูŠู‚ูˆุฏ ุฅู„ูŠู‡.
08:40
Optimism leads to success in academia and sports and politics.
178
520119
4870
ูŠู‚ูˆุฏ ุงู„ุชูุงุคู„ ู†ุญูˆ ุงู„ู†ุฌุงุญ ููŠ ุงู„ู…ูŠุฏุงู† ุงู„ุฃูƒุงุฏูŠู…ูŠ ูˆ ุงู„ุฑูŠุงุถูŠ ูˆ ุงู„ุณูŠุงุณูŠ.
08:44
And maybe the most surprising benefit of optimism is health.
179
524989
4475
ูˆู‚ุฏ ุชูƒูˆู† ุงู„ูุงุฆุฏุฉ ุงู„ุฃูƒุซุฑ ู…ูุงุฌุฆุฉ ู„ู„ู†ุฌุงุญ ู‡ูŠ ุงู„ุตุญุฉ.
08:49
If we expect the future to be bright,
180
529464
3325
ุฅุฐุง ุชูˆู‚ุนู†ุง ุฃู† ูŠูƒูˆู† ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ ุจุฑู‘ุงู‚ุงุŒ
08:52
stress and anxiety are reduced.
181
532789
2740
ูŠู‚ู‘ู„ ุงู„ุชูˆุชุฑ ูˆุงู„ู‚ู„ู‚.
08:55
So all in all, optimism has lots of benefits.
182
535529
4220
ูˆ ู…ุฌู…ู„ุงู‹ุŒ ููŠ ุงู„ุชูุงุคู„ ูƒุซูŠุฑูŒ ู…ู† ุงู„ููˆุงุฆุฏ.
08:59
But the question that was really confusing to me was,
183
539749
3011
ู„ูƒู† ุงู„ุณุคุงู„ ุงู„ุฐูŠ ุฌุนู„ู†ูŠ ูุนู„ุง ููŠ ุญูŠุฑุฉ ู…ู† ุฃู…ุฑูŠุŒ
09:02
how do we maintain optimism in the face of reality?
184
542760
4669
ู‡ูˆ ูƒูŠู ู†ุจู‚ูŠ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุชูุงุคู„ ููŠ ู…ูˆุงุฌู‡ุฉ ุงู„ูˆุงู‚ุนุŸ
09:07
As an neuroscientist, this was especially confusing,
185
547429
3018
ูƒู…ุฎุชุตุฉ ููŠ ุนู„ู… ุงู„ุฃุนุตุงุจุŒ ูƒุงู† ู‡ุฐุง ุฌุฏู‘ ู…ุฑุจูƒุŒ
09:10
because according to all the theories out there,
186
550447
2896
ู„ุฃู†ู‡ ูˆุจุญุณุจ ูƒู„ ุงู„ู†ุธุฑูŠุงุช ุงู„ุดุงุฆุนุฉุŒ
09:13
when your expectations are not met, you should alter them.
187
553343
4188
ุฅุฐุง ู„ู… ุชุชุญู‚ู‚ ุชูˆู‚ุนุงุชูƒุŒ ูุนู„ูŠูƒ ุจุชุบูŠูŠุฑู‡ุง.
09:17
But this is not what we find.
188
557531
1552
ู„ูƒู† ู„ูŠุณ ู‡ุฐุง ู…ุง ู†ุฌุฏ.
09:19
We asked people to come into our lab
189
559083
3483
ุทู„ุจู†ุง ู…ู† ุฃุดุฎุงุต ุงู„ุญุถูˆุฑ ุฅู„ู‰ ู…ุฎุจุฑู†ุง
09:22
in order to try and figure out what was going on.
190
562566
2810
ูƒูŠ ู†ุญุงูˆู„ ุฃู† ู†ุชุนุฑู ุนู„ู‰ ู…ุง ูŠุฌุฑูŠ.
09:25
We asked them to estimate their likelihood
191
565376
2547
ุทู„ุจู†ุง ู…ู†ู‡ู… ุฃู† ูŠู‚ุฏุฑูˆุง ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ
09:27
of experiencing different terrible events in their lives.
192
567923
2504
ุฎูˆุถู‡ู… ู…ุฎุชู„ู ุงู„ุฃุญุฏุงุซ ุงู„ู…ุคู„ู…ุฉ ููŠ ุญูŠุงุชู‡ู….
09:30
So, for example, what is your likelihood of suffering from cancer?
193
570427
4375
ุนู„ู‰ ุณุจูŠู„ ุงู„ู…ุซุงู„ุŒ "ู…ุง ู‡ูŠ ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุฅุตุงุจุชูƒู… ุจู…ุฑุถ ุงู„ุณุฑุทุงู†ุŸ"
09:34
And then we told them the average likelihood
194
574802
2352
ูˆุจุนุฏู‡ุง ุฃุฎุจุฑู†ุงู‡ู… ุจุงู„ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุงู„ู…ุชูˆุณุทุฉ
09:37
of someone like them to suffer these misfortunes.
195
577154
2981
ุจุฃู† ุชุญู„ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู…ุตุงุฆุจ ุจุดุฎุตู ู…ุซู„ูู‡ู…
09:40
So cancer, for example, is about 30 percent.
196
580135
3565
ูู…ุซู„ุงู‹ุŒ ุญูˆุงู„ูŠ 30% ู„ู…ุฑุถ ุงู„ุณุฑุทุงู†.
09:43
And then we asked them again,
197
583700
2935
ุซู… ุณุฃู„ู†ุงู‡ู… ู…ุฌุฏู‘ุฏู‹ุงุŒ
09:46
"How likely are you to suffer from cancer?"
198
586635
2875
"ู…ุง ู‡ูŠ ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุฅุตุงุจุชูƒู… ุจู…ุฑุถ ุงู„ุณุฑุทุงู†ุŸ"
09:49
What we wanted to know was
199
589510
2248
ู…ุง ุฃุฑุฏู†ุง ู…ุนุฑูุชู‡
09:51
whether people will take the information that we gave them
200
591758
2669
ู‡ูˆ ู…ุง ุฅุฐุง ูƒุงู† ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ุณูŠุฃุฎุฐูˆู† ููŠ ุงู„ุงุนุชุจุงุฑ ุงู„ู…ุนู„ูˆู…ุฉ ุงู„ุชูŠ ุฃุนุทูŠู†ุงู‡ู…
09:54
to change their beliefs.
201
594427
2131
ู„ูŠุบูŠุฑูˆุง ู…ุนุชู‚ุฏุงุชู‡ู….
09:56
And indeed they did --
202
596558
2369
ูˆ ูุนู„ุงู‹ ู‚ุงู…ูˆุง ุจุฐู„ูƒ -
09:58
but mostly when the information we gave them
203
598927
2581
ู„ูƒู† ุบุงู„ุจุงู‹ ู„ู…ู‘ุง ูƒุงู†ุช ุงู„ู…ุนู„ูˆู…ุฉ ุงู„ุชูŠ ุฃุนุทุงูŠู†ุงู‡ู…
10:01
was better than what they expected.
204
601508
2831
ุฃุญุณู† ู…ู…ู‘ุง ุชูˆู‚ุนูˆุง.
10:04
So for example,
205
604339
1361
ูู…ุซู„ุงู‹
10:05
if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer
206
605700
2910
ุฅุฐุง ู‚ุงู„ ุฃุญุฏู‡ู…: "ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุฅุตุงุจุชูŠ ุจุงู„ุณุฑุทุงู†
10:08
is about 50 percent,"
207
608610
2381
ุญูˆุงู„ูŠ 50 %"ุŒ
10:10
and we said, "Hey, good news.
208
610991
2521
ูˆ ู‚ู„ู†ุง ู„ู‡: "ุฅุณู…ุน! ุฎุจุฑูŒ ุณุงุฑ..
10:13
The average likelihood is only 30 percent,"
209
613512
2581
ู…ุชูˆุณุท ุงู„ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ู‡ูˆ ูู‚ุท 30%"ุŒ
10:16
the next time around they would say,
210
616093
2046
ููŠ ุงู„ูƒุฑู‘ุฉ ุงู„ุชุงู„ูŠุฉ ุณูŠู‚ูˆู„:
10:18
"Well maybe my likelihood is about 35 percent."
211
618139
2715
"ุญุณู†ู‹ุงุŒ ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุฅุตุงุจุชูŠ ู‡ูŠ ุญูˆุงู„ูŠ 35%".
10:20
So they learned quickly and efficiently.
212
620854
2636
ูู‚ุฏ ุชุนู„ู‘ู…ูˆุง ุจุณุฑุนุฉ ูˆ ูุนุงู„ูŠุฉ.
10:23
But if someone started off saying,
213
623490
2550
ู„ูƒู† ุฅุฐุง ู‚ุงู„ ุฃุญุฏู‡ู… ุฃูˆู„ ู…ุง ู‚ุงู„ุŒ
10:26
"My average likelihood of suffering from cancer is about 10 percent,"
214
626040
3403
"ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุฅุตุงุจุชูŠ ุจุงู„ุณุฑุทุงู† ู‡ูŠ ุญูˆุงู„ูŠ 10%"ุŒ
10:29
and we said, "Hey, bad news.
215
629443
2692
ูˆ ู‚ู„ู†ุง: "ุฅุณู…ุน! ุฎุจุฑู‹ ุบูŠุฑ ุณุงุฑ.
10:32
The average likelihood is about 30 percent,"
216
632135
3073
ู…ุชูˆุณุท (ุชู„ูƒ) ุงู„ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ู‡ูˆ ูู‚ุท 30%"
10:35
the next time around they would say,
217
635208
2058
ููŠ ุงู„ูƒุฑุฉ ุงู„ุชุงู„ูŠุฉ ุณูŠู‚ูˆู„:
10:37
"Yep. Still think it's about 11 percent."
218
637266
3119
" ุขู‡. ู„ุง ุฃุฒุงู„ ุฃุธู†ู‡ุง 11%"
10:40
(Laughter)
219
640385
1690
(ุถุญูƒ)
10:42
So it's not that they didn't learn at all -- they did --
220
642075
3319
ูุงู„ุฃู…ุฑ ู„ูŠุณ ูƒูˆู†ู‡ู… ู„ู… ูŠุชุนู„ู…ูˆุง ุจุชุงุชู‹ุง - ู‚ุงู…ูˆุง ุจุฐู„ูƒ -
10:45
but much, much less than when we gave them
221
645394
2336
ู„ูƒู† ุจุฏุฑุฌุฉ ุฃู‚ู„ู‘ุŒ ุฃู‚ู„ู‘ ุจูƒุซูŠุฑ ู…ู† ู„ู…ู‘ุง ุฃุนุทูŠู†ุงู‡ู…
10:47
positive information about the future.
222
647730
2473
ู…ุนู„ูˆู…ุฉ ุฅูŠุฌุงุจูŠุฉ ุนู† ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„.
10:50
And it's not that they didn't remember the numbers that we gave them;
223
650203
3034
ูˆ ู„ูŠุณ ุงู„ุฃู…ุฑ ูƒูˆู†ู‡ู… ู„ู… ูŠุชุฐูƒุฑูˆุง ุงู„ุฃุฑู‚ุงู… ุงู„ุชูŠ ุฃุนุทูŠู†ุงู‡ู…ุŒ
10:53
everyone remembers that the average likelihood of cancer
224
653237
3073
ุงู„ูƒู„ ูŠุชุฐูƒุฑ ุฃู†ู‘ ู…ุชูˆุณุท ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุงู„ุฅุตุงุจุฉ ุจุงู„ุณุฑุทุงู†
10:56
is about 30 percent
225
656310
1500
ู‡ูˆ ุญูˆุงู„ูŠ 30%
10:57
and the average likelihood of divorce is about 40 percent.
226
657810
2779
ู…ุชูˆุณุท ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุงู„ุทู„ุงู‚ ู‡ูˆ 40%.
11:00
But they didn't think that those numbers were related to them.
227
660589
4631
ู„ูƒู†ู‡ู… ู„ู… ูŠุนุชู‚ุฏูˆุง ุฃู† ุชุนู†ูŠู‡ู… ุชู„ูƒ ุงู„ุฃุฑู‚ุงู….
11:05
What this means is that warning signs such as these
228
665220
4148
ู…ุง ูŠุนู†ูŠู‡ ุฐู„ูƒ ุฃู† ุฅุดุงุฑุงุชู ู…ุญุฐู‘ุฑุฉู ูƒู‡ุฐู‡
11:09
may only have limited impact.
229
669368
2892
ู‚ุฏ ูŠูƒูˆู† ุฃุซุฑู‡ุง ุฌุฏ ู…ุญุฏูˆุฏ.
11:12
Yes, smoking kills, but mostly it kills the other guy.
230
672260
4159
ู†ุนู…ุŒ ุงู„ุชุฏุฎูŠู† ูŠุคุฏูŠ ุฅู„ู‰ ุงู„ู…ูˆุชุŒ ูˆ ู„ูƒู†ู‡ ูŠู‚ุชู„ ุดุฎุตู‹ุง ุขุฎุฑ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุฃุฑุฌุญ.
11:16
What I wanted to know was
231
676419
1883
ู…ุง ุฃุฑุฏุช ู…ุนุฑูุชู‡ ู‡ูˆ
11:18
what was going on inside the human brain
232
678302
2860
ู…ุง ูƒุงู† ูŠุฏูˆุฑ ุจุงู„ุฐู‡ู† ุงู„ุจุดุฑูŠ
11:21
that prevented us from taking these warning signs personally.
233
681162
4094
ูˆูŠู…ู†ุนู‡ ู…ู† ุงู„ุฃุฎุฐ ุจู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุฅุดุงุฑุงุช ุงู„ู…ุญุฐุฑุฉ ุดุฎุตูŠู‘ุงู‹.
11:25
But at the same time,
234
685256
1487
ู„ูƒู† ููŠ ู†ูุณ ุงู„ูˆู‚ุชุŒ
11:26
when we hear that the housing market is hopeful,
235
686743
1978
ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ู†ุณู…ุน ุจุฃู†ู‘ ุงู„ุชูˆู‚ุนุงุช ุจุฎุตูˆุต ุณูˆู‚ ุงู„ุนู‚ุงุฑุฌูŠุฏุฉุŒ
11:28
we think, "Oh, my house is definitely going to double in price."
236
688721
4116
ู†ุฎู…ู‘ู† : "ุญุณู†ุงู‹ุŒ ุณูŠุชุถุงุนู ุณุนุฑ ู…ู†ุฒู„ูŠ ุจุงู„ุชุฃูƒูŠุฏ".
11:32
To try and figure that out,
237
692837
2085
ู…ู† ุฃุฌู„ ุงุณุชุจูŠุงู† ุฐู„ูƒุŒ
11:34
I asked the participants in the experiment
238
694922
2473
ุทู„ุจุช ู…ู† ุงู„ู…ุดุงุฑูƒูŠู† ููŠ ุงู„ุชุฌุฑุจุฉ
11:37
to lie in a brain imaging scanner.
239
697395
2161
ุฃู† ูŠุณุชู„ู‚ูˆุง ุฏุงุฎู„ ู…ุงุณุญ ู…ุตูˆุฑ ู„ู„ุฏู…ุงุบ.
11:39
It looks like this.
240
699556
1527
ุฅู†ู‡ ูŠุดุจู‡ ู‡ุฐุง.
11:41
And using a method called functional MRI,
241
701083
3031
ูˆ ุจุงู„ุงุนุชู…ุงุฏ ุนู„ู‰ ุทุฑูŠู‚ุฉ ุชุณู…ู‰ ุจู€"ุงู„ุชุตูˆูŠุฑ ุงู„ูˆุธูŠููŠ ุนุจุฑ ุงู„ุฑู†ูŠู† ุงู„ู…ุบู†ุงุทูŠุณูŠ"
11:44
we were able to identify regions in the brain
242
704114
3606
ุชู…ูƒู†ู‘ุง ู…ู† ุงู„ุชุนุฑู ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ู…ู†ุงุทู‚ ุฏุงุฎู„ ุงู„ุฏู…ุงุบ
11:47
that were responding to positive information.
243
707720
2817
ุงู„ุชูŠ ูƒุงู†ุช ุชุณุชุฌูŠุจ ู„ู„ู…ุนู„ูˆู…ุงุช ุงู„ุฅูŠุฌุงุจูŠุฉ.
11:50
One of these regions is called the left inferior frontal gyrus.
244
710537
3579
ูˆุงุญุฏุฉ ู…ู† ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู…ู†ุงุทู‚ ุชุณู…ู‰ ุงู„ุชู‘ูŽู„ู’ููŠูู ุงู„ุฌูŽุจู’ู‡ููŠู‘ู ุงู„ุณูู„ูŠ ุงู„ุฃูŠุณุฑ.
11:54
So if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer is 50 percent,"
245
714116
3788
ูุฅุฐุง ู‚ุงู„ ุฃุญุฏูŒ "ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุฅุตุงุจุชูŠ ุจุงู„ุณุฑุทุงู† ู‡ูŠ 50%"ุŒ
11:57
and we said, "Hey, good news.
246
717904
1856
ูˆ ู‚ู„ู†ุง "ุฅุณู…ุน! ุฎุจุฑ ุณุงุฑ.
11:59
Average likelihood is 30 percent,"
247
719760
2290
ู…ุชูˆุณุท ุงู„ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ู‡ูˆ 30%".
12:02
the left inferior frontal gyrus would respond fiercely.
248
722050
3572
ุณูŠุณุชุฌูŠุจ ุงู„ุชู„ููŠู ุงู„ุฌุจู‡ูŠ ุงู„ุณูู„ูŠ ุงู„ุฃูŠุณุฑ ุจุดุฑุงุณุฉ.
12:05
And it didn't matter if you're an extreme optimist, a mild optimist
249
725622
4732
ูˆ ู„ุง ูุฑู‚ ุฅู† ูƒู†ุช ู…ุชูุงุฆู„ุง ู…ุชุทุฑูุง ุฃูˆ ู…ุนุชุฏู„ุง
12:10
or slightly pessimistic,
250
730354
1821
ุฃูˆ ู…ุชุดุงุฆู…ุง ู‚ู„ูŠู„ุง
12:12
everyone's left inferior frontal gyrus
251
732175
2585
ูุงู„ุชู„ููŠู ุงู„ุฌุจู‡ูŠ ุงู„ุณูู„ูŠ ุงู„ุฃูŠุณุฑ ู„ูƒู„ู‘ู ู…ู†ู‡ู…
12:14
was functioning perfectly well,
252
734760
1844
ูŠุนู…ู„ ุจุดูƒู„ ุฌูŠุฏ ุชู…ุงู…ู‹ุงุŒ
12:16
whether you're Barack Obama or Woody Allen.
253
736604
2906
ุณูˆุงุกู‹ุง ุฃูƒู†ุช ุจุงุฑุงูƒ ุฃูˆุจุงู…ุง ุฃูˆ ูˆูˆุฏูŠ ุฃู„ู†.
12:19
On the other side of the brain,
254
739510
1644
ููŠ ุงู„ุฌู‡ุฉ ุงู„ุฃุฎุฑู‰ ู…ู† ุงู„ุฏู…ุงุบุŒ
12:21
the right inferior frontal gyrus was responding to bad news.
255
741154
4786
ูƒุงู† ุงู„ุชู„ููŠู ุงู„ุฌุจู‡ูŠ ุงู„ุณูู„ูŠ ุงู„ุฃูŠู…ู† ูŠุณุชุฌูŠุจ ู„ู„ุฃุฎุจุงุฑุงู„ุณูŠุฆุฉ.
12:25
And here's the thing: it wasn't doing a very good job.
256
745940
3726
ูˆ ู‡ู†ุง ุชูƒู…ู† ุงู„ู…ุณุฃู„ุฉ: ู„ู… ูŠูƒู† ูŠุคุฏูŠ ู…ู‡ู…ุชู‡ ุนู„ู‰ ูˆุฌุฉ ุฌูŠู‘ุฏ.
12:29
The more optimistic you were,
257
749666
2015
ูƒู„ู‘ู…ุง ูƒู†ุช ุฃูƒุซุฑ ุชูุงุคู„ุงู‹ุŒ
12:31
the less likely this region was
258
751681
2337
ูƒู„ู…ุง ู‚ู„ู‘ ุงุญุชู…ุงู„ ุฃู† ุชู‚ูˆู… ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู…ู†ุทู‚ุฉ
12:34
to respond to unexpected negative information.
259
754018
2982
ุจุงู„ุงุณุชุฌุงุจุฉ ู„ู„ุฃุฎุจุงุฑ ุงู„ุณู„ุจูŠุฉ ุบูŠุฑ ุงู„ู…ู†ุชุธุฑุฉ.
12:37
And if your brain is failing
260
757000
3058
ูˆ ุฅู† ุชุนุทู‘ู„ ุนู…ู„ ุงู„ุฏู…ุงุบ
12:40
at integrating bad news about the future,
261
760058
3225
ุนู† ุงู„ุชู‚ุงุท ุงู„ุฃุฎุจุงุฑ ุงู„ุณูŠุฆุฉ ุงู„ู…ุชุนู„ู‚ุฉ ุจุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ุŒ
12:43
you will constantly leave your rose-tinted spectacles on.
262
763283
4623
ุณุชุฏุน ู…ูŽุดุงู‡ูุฏูŽูƒูŽ ุงู„ูˆุฑุฏูŠุฉ ุชุฎุทุฑ ุนู„ูŠูƒ ุจุงู†ุชุธุงู….
12:47
So we wanted to know, could we change this?
263
767906
4969
ูุฃุฑุฏู†ุง ู…ุนุฑูุฉ ู‡ู„ ุจุฅู…ูƒุงู†ู†ุง ุชุบูŠูŠุฑ ู‡ุฐุงุŸ
12:52
Could we alter people's optimism bias
264
772875
3443
ู‡ู„ ูŠู…ูƒู†ู†ุง ุฃู† ู†ุญูˆู‘ุฑู…ูŠู„ ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ู„ู„ุชูุงุคู„
12:56
by interfering with the brain activity in these regions?
265
776318
3932
ุจุงู„ุชุฏุฎู„ ููŠ ุงู„ู†ุดุงุท ุงู„ุฏู…ุงุบูŠ ููŠ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู…ู†ุงุทู‚ุŸ
13:00
And there's a way for us to do that.
266
780250
2595
ูˆู‡ู†ุงูƒ ูˆุณูŠู„ุฉ ุชุณู…ุญ ู„ู†ุง ุจูุนู„ ุฐู„ูƒ.
13:02
This is my collaborator Ryota Kanai.
267
782845
2627
ู‡ุฐุง ุฃุญุฏ ุงู„ุนุงู…ู„ูŠู† ููŠ ู…ุฎุจุฑู†ุง ุฑูˆูŠุงุชุง ูƒุงู†ุงูŠูŠ
13:05
And what he's doing is he's passing a small magnetic pulse
268
785472
3955
ูˆู…ุง ูŠูุนู„ู‡ ู‡ูˆ ุชู…ุฑูŠุฑ ู†ุจุถู ู…ุบู†ุงุทูŠุณูŠู‘
13:09
through the skull of the participant in our study
269
789427
2119
ุนุจุฑ ุฌู…ุฌู…ุฉ ุงู„ู…ุดุงุฑูƒูŠู† ููŠ ุฏุฑุงุณุชู†ุง
13:11
into their inferior frontal gyrus.
270
791546
2245
ู†ุญูˆ ุชู„ููŠูู‡ู… ุงู„ุฌุจู‡ูŠ ุงู„ุณูู„ูŠ.
13:13
And by doing that,
271
793791
1927
ูˆุจู‡ุฐุงุŒ
13:15
he's interfering with the activity of this brain region
272
795718
2904
ูู‡ูˆ ูŠุชู‘ุฏุฎู„ ููŠ ู†ุดุงุท ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู…ู†ุทู‚ุฉ ู…ู† ุงู„ุฏู…ุงุบ
13:18
for about half an hour.
273
798622
1215
ู„ู…ุฏุฉ ู†ุตู ุงู„ุณุงุนุฉ ุชู‚ุฑูŠุจุง.
13:19
After that everything goes back to normal, I assure you.
274
799837
2921
ุฃูุทู…ุฆู†ูƒู… ุฃู†ู‘ ูƒู„ู‘ ุดูŠุก ูŠุฑุฌุน ุฅู„ู‰ ูˆุถุนู‡ ุงู„ุนุงุฏูŠ ุจุนุฏู‡ุง.
13:22
(Laughter)
275
802758
1993
(ุถุญูƒ)
13:24
So let's see what happens.
276
804751
3154
ูู„ู†ู†ุธุฑ ู…ุงุฐุง ูŠุญุฏุซ.
13:27
First of all, I'm going to show you
277
807905
2097
ุจุฏุงูŠุฉู‹ุŒ ุณูˆู ุฃุฑูŠูƒู…
13:30
the average amount of bias that we see.
278
810002
2704
ู…ุนุฏู„ ู…ู‚ุฏุงุฑ ุงู„ู…ูŠู„ ุงู„ุฐูŠ ู†ู„ุงุญุธู‡
13:32
So if I was to test all of you now,
279
812706
2823
ูู„ูˆ ุฃู†ูŠ ู‚ู…ุช ุงู„ุขู† ุจุงุฎุชุจุงุฑูƒู… ุฌู…ูŠุนุงู‹ุŒ
13:35
this is the amount that you would learn
280
815529
1794
ู‡ุฐุง ู‡ูˆ ู…ู‚ุฏุงุฑู…ุง ู‚ุฏ ุชุชุนู„ู…ูˆู†ู‡
13:37
more from good news relative to bad news.
281
817323
3120
ุจุดูƒู„ู ุฃูƒุจุฑ ู…ู† ุงู„ุฃุฎุจุงุฑ ุงู„ุณุงุฑุฉ ู…ู‚ุงุฑู†ุฉู‹ ุจุงู„ุฃุฎุจุงุฑ ุงู„ุณูŠุฆุฉ.
13:40
Now we interfere with the region
282
820443
2484
ูˆ ุงู„ุขู† ู†ุชุฏู‘ุฎู„ ููŠ ุงู„ู…ู†ุทู‚ุฉ
13:42
that we found to integrate negative information in this task,
283
822927
4467
ุงู„ุชูŠ ูˆุฌุฏู†ุง ุจุฃู†ู‡ุง ุชู„ุชู‚ุท ุงู„ุฃุฎุจุงุฑ ุงู„ุณูŠุฆุฉ ููŠ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู…ูŽู‡ู…ุฉุŒ
13:47
and the optimism bias grew even larger.
284
827394
3564
ูุงุฑุชูุน ู…ู‚ุฏุงุฑ ุงู„ู…ูŠู„ ู„ู„ุชูุงุคู„ ุฃูƒุซุฑ.
13:50
We made people more biased in the way that they process information.
285
830958
5470
ู„ู‚ุฏ ุฌุนู„ู†ุง ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ุฃูƒุซุฑ ู…ูŠู„ุง ููŠ ุฃุณู„ูˆุจ ู…ุนุงู„ุฌุชู‡ู… ู„ู„ู…ุนู„ูˆู…ุงุช.
13:56
Then we interfered with the brain region
286
836428
2897
ุซู…ู‘ ุชุฏุฎู„ู†ุง ููŠ ุงู„ู…ู†ุทู‚ุฉ
13:59
that we found to integrate good news in this task,
287
839325
3518
ุงู„ุชูŠ ูˆุฌุฏู†ุง ุจุฃู†ู‡ุง ุชู„ุชู‚ุท ุงู„ุฃุฎุจุงุฑ ุงู„ุฌูŠุฏุฉ ููŠ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู…ูŽู‡ู…ุฉุŒ
14:02
and the optimism bias disappeared.
288
842843
4471
ูุงุฎุชูู‰ ุงู„ู…ูŠู„ ู„ู„ุชูุงุคู„.
14:07
We were quite amazed by these results
289
847314
2008
ู„ู‚ุฏ ุฏูู‡ุดู†ุง ุชู…ุงู…ุงู‹ ู„ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู†ุชุงุฆุฌ
14:09
because we were able to eliminate
290
849322
2192
ู„ุฃู†ู‘ู†ุง ุชู…ูƒู†ู‘ุง ู…ู† ุฅู‚ุตุงุก
14:11
a deep-rooted bias in humans.
291
851514
3196
ู…ูŠู„ู ุฅู†ุณุงู†ูŠู‘ ู…ุชุฌุฐู‘ุฑู.
14:14
And at this point we stopped and we asked ourselves,
292
854710
4773
ูˆู‡ุง ู‡ู†ุง ุชูˆู‚ู‘ูู†ุง ู„ู†ุณุฃู„ ุฃู†ูุณู†ุงุŒ
14:19
would we want to shatter the optimism illusion into tiny little bits?
293
859483
5102
ุฃู†ุฑุบุจ ููŠ ุชุญุทูŠู… ูˆู‡ู… ุงู„ุชูุงุคู„ ู‚ูุทุนุงู‹ ู‚ูุทุนุงู‹ุŸ
14:24
If we could do that, would we want to take people's optimism bias away?
294
864585
5044
ุฅู† ุฃู…ูƒู†ู†ุง ุฐู„ูƒุŒ ุฃู†ุฑุบุจ ููŠ ุงู†ุชุฒุงุน ู…ูŠู„ ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ู„ู„ุชูุงุคู„ุŸ
14:29
Well I've already told you about all of the benefits of the optimism bias,
295
869629
4600
ุญุณู†ุงู‹ ู„ู‚ุฏ ุณุจู‚ ูˆุฃู† ุฐูƒุฑุช ู„ูƒู… ูƒู„ ู…ุฒุงูŠุง ุงู„ู…ูŠู„ ู„ู„ุชูุงุคู„ุŒ
14:34
which probably makes you want to hold onto it for dear life.
296
874229
4321
ูˆุงู„ุชูŠ ู‚ุฏ ุชุฌุนู„ูƒู… ุชุชุดุจุซูˆู† ุจู‡ุŒ
14:38
But there are, of course, pitfalls,
297
878550
2085
ู„ูƒู† ุชูˆุฌุฏ ู„ู‡ ุนูŠูˆุจูŒ
14:40
and it would be really foolish of us to ignore them.
298
880635
3120
ู„ุง ู†ุชุฌุงู‡ู„ู‡ุง ุฅู„ุงู‘ ุณูู‡ุงู‹.
14:43
Take for example this email I recieved
299
883755
3546
ูู„ู†ุฃุฎุฐ ุนู„ู‰ ุณุจูŠู„ ุงู„ู…ุซุงู„ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุฑุณุงู„ุฉ ุงู„ุฅู„ูƒุชุฑูˆู†ูŠุฉ ุงู„ุชูŠ ุชู„ู‚ูŠุชู‡ุง
14:47
from a firefighter here in California.
300
887301
2694
ู…ู† ุฑุฌู„ ุฅุทูุงุกู ู‡ู†ุง ุจูƒุงู„ููˆุฑู†ูŠุง.
14:49
He says, "Fatality investigations for firefighters
301
889995
3304
ูŠู‚ูˆู„: "ููŠ ุงู„ุชุญู‚ูŠู‚ุงุช ุญูˆู„ ุญุงู„ุงุช ูˆูุงุฉ ุฑุฌุงู„ ุงู„ุฅุทูุงุก
14:53
often include 'We didn't think the fire was going to do that,'
302
893299
4142
ุบุงู„ุจุงู‹ ู…ุง ู†ุณู…ุน ุฃู‚ูˆุงู„ุงู‹ ู…ุซู„ "ู„ู… ู†ูƒู† ู†ุชูˆู‚ุน ุจุฃู† ุชูุนู„ ุงู„ู†ุงุฑ ุฐู„ูƒ"ุŒ
14:57
even when all of the available information
303
897441
2302
ุญุชู‰ ูˆ ู„ูˆ ูƒุงู†ุช ูƒู„ ุงู„ู…ุนู„ูˆู…ุงุช ุงู„ู…ุชูˆูุฑุฉ
14:59
was there to make safe decisions."
304
899743
2255
ู‚ุฏ ุชุณู…ุญ ุจุงุชุฎุงุฐ ู‚ุฑุงุฑุงุช ุขู…ู†ุฉ".
15:01
This captain is going to use our findings on the optimism bias
305
901998
3874
ุณูŠุณุชุนู…ู„ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ูƒุงุจุชู† ุงูƒุชุดุงูู†ุง ุญูˆู„ ุงู„ู…ูŠู„ ู„ู„ุชูุงุคู„
15:05
to try to explain to the firefighters
306
905872
2192
ู„ูŠุญุงูˆู„ ุฃู† ูŠุดุฑุญ ู„ุฑุฌุงู„ ุงู„ุฅุทูุงุก
15:08
why they think the way they do,
307
908064
2209
ู„ู…ุงุฐุง ูŠููƒู‘ุฑูˆู† ุจุงู„ุทุฑูŠู‚ุฉ ุงู„ุชูŠ ูŠููƒู‘ุฑูˆู† ุจู‡ุงุŒ
15:10
to make them acutely aware of this very optimistic bias in humans.
308
910273
7126
ู„ุชูˆุนูŠุชู‡ู… ู…ู† ุบูŠุฑ ู„ุจุณู ุจู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู…ูŠู„ ู„ู„ุชูุงุคู„ ุงู„ุดุฏูŠุฏ ููŠ ุงู„ุฅู†ุณุงู†.
15:17
So unrealistic optimism can lead to risky behavior,
309
917399
5119
ูุงู„ุชูุงุคู„ ุบูŠุฑ ุงู„ูˆุงู‚ุนูŠ ู‚ุฏ ูŠุคุฏูŠ ุฅู„ู‰ ุณู„ูˆูƒ ู…ุชู‡ูˆุฑุŒ
15:22
to financial collapse, to faulty planning.
310
922518
3638
ุฅู„ู‰ ุฅูู„ุงุณู ู…ุงู„ูŠู‘ุŒ ุฅู„ู‰ ุชุฎุทูŠุทู ุฎุงุทุฆ.
15:26
The British government, for example,
311
926156
2138
ุงู„ุญูƒูˆู…ุฉ ุงู„ุจุฑูŠุทุงู†ูŠุฉุŒ ุนู„ู‰ ุณุจูŠู„ ุงู„ู…ุซุงู„ุŒ
15:28
has acknowledged that the optimism bias
312
928294
2674
ุงุนุชุฑูุช ุจุฃู†ู‘ ุงู„ู…ูŠู„ ู„ู„ุชูุงุคู„
15:30
can make individuals more likely
313
930968
3287
ู‚ุฏ ูŠุฌุนู„ ุงู„ุฃูุฑุงุฏ ุฃูƒุซุฑุนุฑุถุฉู‹
15:34
to underestimate the costs and durations of projects.
314
934255
4026
ู„ุชู‚ูŠูŠู… ุชูƒุงู„ูŠู ูˆ ู…ุฏุฉ ุงู„ู…ุดุงุฑูŠุน ุจุตูุฉ ุฃุฏู†ู‰ ู…ู…ุง ุชุชุทู„ุจ.
15:38
So they have adjusted the 2012 Olympic budget
315
938281
4254
ูู‚ุฏ ู‚ุงู…ูˆุง ุจุชุนุฏูŠู„ ู…ูŠุฒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุงู„ุฃู„ุนุงุจ ุงู„ุฃูˆู„ู…ุจูŠุฉ 2012
15:42
for the optimism bias.
316
942535
2111
ุจุงุนุชุจุงุฑ ุงู„ู…ูŠู„ ู„ู„ุชูุงุคู„.
15:44
My friend who's getting married in a few weeks
317
944646
2187
ุตุฏูŠู‚ูŠ ุงู„ู…ู‚ุจู„ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุฒูˆุงุฌ ููŠ ุบุถูˆู† ุจุถุนุฉ ุฃุณุงุจูŠุน
15:46
has done the same for his wedding budget.
318
946833
2434
ู‚ุงู… ุจู†ูุณ ุงู„ุดูŠุก ุจุงู„ู†ุณุจุฉ ู„ู…ูŠุฒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุฒูุงูู‡.
15:49
And by the way, when I asked him about his own likelihood of divorce,
319
949267
3062
ูˆุนู„ู‰ ุณุจูŠู„ ุงู„ุฐูƒุฑุŒ ู„ู…ู‘ุง ุณุฃู„ุชู‡ ุนู† ุฅู…ูƒุงู†ูŠุฉ ุทู„ุงู‚ู‡ ุดุฎุตูŠู‘ุงุŒ
15:52
he said he was quite sure it was zero percent.
320
952329
3560
ู‚ุงู„ ุฃู†ู‡ ู…ุชุฃูƒุฏูŒ ุชู…ุงู…ุง ุจุฃู†ู‡ุง ุตูุฑ ุจุงู„ู…ุงุฆุฉ.
15:55
So what we would really like to do,
321
955889
2417
ูู…ุง ู†ุฑูŠุฏ ูุนู„ู‡ ุญู‚ูŠู‚ุฉู‹ุŒ
15:58
is we would like to protect ourselves from the dangers of optimism,
322
958306
4161
ู‡ูˆ ุฃู† ู†ุญู…ูŠ ุฃู†ูุณู†ุง ู…ู† ู…ุฎุงุทุฑ ุงู„ุชูุงุคู„ุŒ
16:02
but at the same time remain hopeful,
323
962467
3228
ู„ูƒู†ุŒ ููŠ ู†ูุณ ุงู„ูˆู‚ุช ู†ุจู‚ู‰ ู…ุชูุงุฆู„ูŠู†ุŒ
16:05
benefiting from the many fruits of optimism.
324
965695
2844
ูู†ุณุชููŠุฏ ุจุฐู„ูƒ ู…ู† ุซู…ุฑุงุช ุงู„ุชูุงุคู„ ุงู„ุนุฏูŠุฏุฉ.
16:08
And I believe there's a way for us to do that.
325
968539
2804
ูˆ ุฃุนุชู‚ุฏ ุฃู† ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ุฃุณู„ูˆุจุง ูŠู…ูƒู‘ู†ู†ุง ู…ู† ูุนู„ ุฐู„ูƒ.
16:11
The key here really is knowledge.
326
971343
2060
ุงู„ู…ูุชุงุญ ู‡ู†ุง ู‡ูˆ ุงู„ู…ุนุฑูุฉ.
16:13
We're not born with an innate understanding of our biases.
327
973403
3311
ู†ุญู† ู„ู… ู†ูˆู„ุฏ ุจูู‡ู…ู ูุทุฑูŠู‘ ู„ู…ูŠูˆู„ุงุชู†ุง.
16:16
These have to be identified by scientific investigation.
328
976714
3841
ุฅู†ู‡ุง ุชุญุชุงุฌ ุฅู„ู‰ ุฃุจุญุงุซู ุนู„ู…ูŠุฉ ุชุจูŠู‘ู†ู‡ุง ู„ู†ุง.
16:20
But the good news is that becoming aware of the optimism bias
329
980555
4184
ู„ูƒู† ุงู„ุจุดุฑู‰ ู‡ูŠ ุฃู† ุงูƒุชุณุงุจ ุงู„ูˆุนูŠ ุจุงู„ู…ูŠู„ ู„ู„ุชูุงุคู„
16:24
does not shatter the illusion.
330
984739
1775
ู„ุง ูŠุญุทู‘ู… ุงู„ูˆู‡ู….
16:26
It's like visual illusions,
331
986514
1548
ุฅู†ู‡ ูƒุงู„ุฃูˆู‡ุงู… ุงู„ุจุตุฑูŠุฉุŒ
16:28
in which understanding them does not make them go away.
332
988062
3490
ุญูŠุซ ุฃู†ู‘ ูู‡ู…ู‡ุง ู„ุง ูŠุฒูŠู„ู‡ุง.
16:31
And this is good because it means
333
991552
2237
ูˆ ู‡ุฐุง ุฌูŠู‘ุฏ ู„ุฃู†ู‡ ูŠุนู†ูŠ
16:33
we should be able to strike a balance,
334
993789
2473
ุฃู†ู‘ู†ุง ูŠุฌุจ ุฃู† ู†ุชูˆุตู‘ู„ ุฅู„ู‰ ุชูˆุงุฒู†ู
16:36
to come up with plans and rules
335
996262
2427
ู„ูƒูŠ ู†ูˆุฌูุฏ ู…ุฎุทุทุงุช ูˆ ู‚ูˆุงุนุฏู‹ุง
16:38
to protect ourselves from unrealistic optimism,
336
998689
2783
ู†ุญู…ูŠ ุจู‡ุง ุฃู†ูุณู†ุง ู…ู† ุงู„ุชูุงูˆู„ ุบูŠุฑ ุงู„ูˆุงู‚ุนูŠุŒ
16:41
but at the same time remain hopeful.
337
1001472
3152
ู„ูƒู† ู†ูุจู‚ูŠ ุนู„ู‰ ุขู…ุงู„ู†ุง ููŠ ู†ูุณ ุงู„ูˆู‚ุช.
16:44
I think this cartoon portrays it nicely.
338
1004624
3424
ุฃุนุชู‚ุฏ ุฃู†ู‘ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ูƒุงุฑูŠูƒุงุชูŠุฑ ูŠุตูˆู‘ุฑ ุงู„ู…ุณุฃู„ุฉ ุจู„ุทุงูุฉ.
16:48
Because if you're one of these pessimistic penguins up there
339
1008048
3526
ู„ุฃู†ู‘ูƒ ู„ูˆ ูƒู†ุช ุฃุญุฏ ุชู„ูƒ ุงู„ุจุทุงุฑูŠู‚ ุงู„ู…ุชุดุงุฆู…ุฉ
16:51
who just does not believe they can fly,
340
1011574
2119
ุงู„ุฐูŠ ู„ุง ูŠูƒุงุฏ ูŠุตุฏู‘ู‚ ุฃู†ู‡ุง ู„ุง ุชุทูŠุฑุŒ
16:53
you certainly never will.
341
1013693
2359
ูุจุงู„ุชุฃูƒูŠุฏ ู„ู† ุชุณุชุทูŠุน ุฐู„ูƒ ุฃุจุฏู‹ุง.
16:56
Because to make any kind of progress,
342
1016052
1831
ู„ุฃู†ู‘ู‡ ู…ู† ุฃุฌู„ ุงู„ุชู‚ุฏู… ุจุฃูŠ ุดูƒู„ู ู…ู† ุงู„ุฃุดูƒุงู„ุŒ
16:57
we need to be able to imagine a different reality,
343
1017883
2350
ู†ุญุชุงุฌ ุฃู† ู†ูƒูˆู† ู‚ุงุฏุฑูŠู† ุนู„ู‰ ุชุตูˆู‘ุฑ ูˆุงู‚ุน ู…ุบุงูŠุฑุŒ
17:00
and then we need to believe that that reality is possible.
344
1020233
3731
ูˆ ุญูŠู†ู‡ุง ู†ุญุชุงุฌ ุฃู† ู†ุคู…ู† ุจุฃู† ุฐู„ูƒ ุงู„ูˆุงู‚ุน ู…ู…ูƒู†.
17:03
But if you are an extreme optimistic penguin
345
1023974
3524
ู„ูƒู† ู„ูˆ ูƒู†ุช ุจุทุฑูŠู‚ุงู‹ ุดุฏูŠุฏ ุงู„ุชูุงุคู„
17:07
who just jumps down blindly hoping for the best,
346
1027498
2762
ูŠู‚ูุฒ ูู‚ุท ูˆุนูŠู†ุงู‡ ู…ุบู…ุถุชุงู† ุนู„ู‰ ุฃู…ู„ ุงู„ุฃูุถู„ุŒ
17:10
you might find yourself in a bit of a mess when you hit the ground.
347
1030260
4781
ูู‚ุฏ ุชุฌุฏ ู†ูุณูƒ ููŠ ูˆุฑุทุฉ ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ุชุตุทุฏู… ุจุงู„ุฃุฑุถ.
17:15
But if you're an optimistic penguin
348
1035041
1889
ู„ูƒู† ู„ูˆ ูƒู†ุช ุจุทุฑูŠู‚ู‹ุง ู…ุชูุงุฆู„ุงู‹
17:16
who believes they can fly,
349
1036930
1796
ูŠุนุชู‚ุฏ ุฃู†ู‘ ุจุฅู…ูƒุงู†ู‡ ุฃู† ูŠุทูŠุฑุŒ
17:18
but then adjusts a parachute to your back
350
1038726
2663
ู„ูƒู†ูƒ ุชุตุทุญุจ ู…ุธู„ู‘ุฉู‹ ุนู„ู‰ ุธู‡ุฑูƒ
17:21
just in case things don't work out exactly as you had planned,
351
1041389
3017
ุงุญุชูŠุงุทุงู‹ ููŠ ุญุงู„ุฉ ุฅุฐุง ู…ุง ุณุงุฑุช ุงู„ุฃู…ูˆุฑ ุนู„ู‰ ุฎู„ุงู ู…ุง ุฎุทู‘ุทุชู‡ุŒ
17:24
you will soar like an eagle,
352
1044406
1863
ูุณุชุฑุชูุน ุนุงู„ูŠู‘ุงู‹ ูƒุงู„ุตู‚ุฑุŒ
17:26
even if you're just a penguin.
353
1046269
3049
ุญุชู‰ ูˆ ุฅู† ูƒู†ุช ู…ุฌุฑู‘ุฏ ุจุทุฑูŠู‚ู‹
17:29
Thank you.
354
1049318
1762
ุดูƒุฑุงู‹ ู„ูƒู….
17:31
(Applause)
355
1051080
2936
(ุชุตููŠู‚)

Original video on YouTube.com
ุญูˆู„ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู…ูˆู‚ุน

ุณูŠู‚ุฏู… ู„ูƒ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู…ูˆู‚ุน ู…ู‚ุงุทุน ููŠุฏูŠูˆ YouTube ุงู„ู…ููŠุฏุฉ ู„ุชุนู„ู… ุงู„ู„ุบุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ. ุณุชุฑู‰ ุฏุฑูˆุณ ุงู„ู„ุบุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ ุงู„ุชูŠ ูŠุชู… ุชุฏุฑูŠุณู‡ุง ู…ู† ู‚ุจู„ ู…ุฏุฑุณูŠู† ู…ู† ุงู„ุฏุฑุฌุฉ ุงู„ุฃูˆู„ู‰ ู…ู† ุฌู…ูŠุน ุฃู†ุญุงุก ุงู„ุนุงู„ู…. ุงู†ู‚ุฑ ู†ู‚ุฑู‹ุง ู…ุฒุฏูˆุฌู‹ุง ููˆู‚ ุงู„ุชุฑุฌู…ุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ ุงู„ู…ุนุฑูˆุถุฉ ุนู„ู‰ ูƒู„ ุตูุญุฉ ููŠุฏูŠูˆ ู„ุชุดุบูŠู„ ุงู„ููŠุฏูŠูˆ ู…ู† ู‡ู†ุงูƒ. ูŠุชู… ุชู…ุฑูŠุฑ ุงู„ุชุฑุฌู…ุงุช ุจุงู„ุชุฒุงู…ู† ู…ุน ุชุดุบูŠู„ ุงู„ููŠุฏูŠูˆ. ุฅุฐุง ูƒุงู† ู„ุฏูŠูƒ ุฃูŠ ุชุนู„ูŠู‚ุงุช ุฃูˆ ุทู„ุจุงุช ุŒ ูŠุฑุฌู‰ ุงู„ุงุชุตุงู„ ุจู†ุง ุจุงุณุชุฎุฏุงู… ู†ู…ูˆุฐุฌ ุงู„ุงุชุตุงู„ ู‡ุฐุง.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7