The danger of science denial | Michael Specter

462,641 views ・ 2010-04-12

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

Prevodilac: Ivana Korom Lektor: Sandra Gojic
00:15
Let's pretend right here we have a machine.
0
15260
3000
Hajde da se pravimo da ovde imamo mašinu,
00:18
A big machine, a cool, TED-ish machine,
1
18260
2000
veliku mašinu, kul TED-astu mašinu,
00:20
and it's a time machine.
2
20260
2000
koja je vremeplov.
00:22
And everyone in this room has to get into it.
3
22260
2000
I svi iz ove prostorije moraju da uđu u nju.
00:24
And you can go backwards, you can go forwards;
4
24260
2000
I možete ići nazad, možete ići napred;
00:26
you cannot stay where you are.
5
26260
2000
ne možete ostati gde ste.
00:28
And I wonder what you'd choose, because I've been asking my friends
6
28260
2000
Pitam se šta biste izabrali, jer u poslednje vreme često
00:30
this question a lot lately and they all want to go back.
7
30260
3000
postavljam ovo pitanje svojim prijateljima i svi žele da se vrate nazad.
00:33
I don't know. They want to go back before there were automobiles
8
33260
2000
Ne znam. Žele da odu nazad pre nego što je bilo automobila
00:35
or Twitter or "American Idol."
9
35260
2000
00:37
I don't know.
10
37260
2000
ili Twittera ili emisije "Američki idol".
00:39
I'm convinced that there's some sort of pull
11
39260
2000
Ne znam.
Ubeđen sam da postoji nešto što nas vuče
00:41
to nostalgia, to wishful thinking.
12
41260
2000
u nostalgiju, u maštanje.
00:43
And I understand that.
13
43260
2000
I razumem to.
00:45
I'm not part of that crowd, I have to say.
14
45260
3000
Nisam deo te gomile, moram priznati.
00:48
I don't want to go back, and it's not because I'm adventurous.
15
48260
2000
Ne želim da se vratim i to ne zato što sam avanturista -
00:50
It's because possibilities on this planet,
16
50260
2000
nego zato što mogućnosti na ovoj planeti
00:52
they don't go back, they go forward.
17
52260
2000
ne idu unazad, idu napred.
00:54
So I want to get in the machine, and I want to go forward.
18
54260
3000
Dakle, želim da uđem u vremeplov i odem napred.
00:57
This is the greatest time there's ever been on this planet
19
57260
3000
Ovo je do sada najbolje vreme na ovoj planeti
01:00
by any measure that you wish to choose:
20
60260
2000
po bilo kom kriterijumu koji odaberete:
01:02
health, wealth,
21
62260
2000
zdravlju, bogatstvu,
01:04
mobility, opportunity,
22
64260
2000
pokretljivosti, šansama,
01:06
declining rates of disease ...
23
66260
2000
opadajućoj stopi bolesti.
01:08
There's never been a time like this.
24
68260
2000
Nikada nije bilo ovakvo vreme.
01:10
My great-grandparents died, all of them,
25
70260
2000
Moji pradede i prababe su svi umrli
01:12
by the time they were 60.
26
72260
2000
do svojih šezdesetih.
01:14
My grandparents pushed that number to 70.
27
74260
2000
Moji babe i dede su pomerili taj broj do 70.
01:16
My parents are closing in on 80.
28
76260
2000
Moji roditelji se približavaju osamdesetim.
01:18
So there better be
29
78260
3000
Bolje da bude broj
01:21
a nine at the beginning of my death number.
30
81260
3000
9 na početku broja mojih godina smrti.
01:24
But it's not even about people like us,
31
84260
2000
Ali ne radi se ni o ljudima kao što smo mi,
01:26
because this is a bigger deal than that.
32
86260
3000
jer ovo je mnogo veće od toga.
01:29
A kid born in New Delhi today
33
89260
2000
Dete rođeno danas u Nju Delhiju
01:31
can expect to live as long as
34
91260
2000
može očekivati da će živeti isto
01:33
the richest man in the world did 100 years ago.
35
93260
2000
koliko i najbogatiji čovek sveta pre 100 godina.
01:35
Think about that, it's an incredible fact.
36
95260
2000
Razmislite o tome. To je neverovatna činjenica.
01:37
And why is it true?
37
97260
2000
A zašto je to istina?
01:39
Smallpox. Smallpox killed billions
38
99260
2000
Boginje. Boginje su ubile milijarde
01:41
of people on this planet.
39
101260
2000
ljudi na ovoj planeti.
01:43
It reshaped the demography of the globe
40
103260
2000
Preoblikovale su demografsku sliku planete
01:45
in a way that no war ever has.
41
105260
2000
kao nijedan rat.
01:47
It's gone. It's vanished.
42
107260
2000
Nestale su. Nema ih.
01:49
We vanquished it. Puff.
43
109260
2000
Pobedili smo ih. Puf.
01:51
In the rich world,
44
111260
2000
U bogatom svetu,
bolesti koje su pretile milionima ljudi samo pre jedne generacije
01:53
diseases that threatened millions of us just a generation ago
45
113260
3000
01:56
no longer exist, hardly.
46
116260
2000
više ne postoje, skoro uopšte.
01:58
Diphtheria, rubella, polio ...
47
118260
2000
Difterija, rubeola, poliomielitis...
02:00
does anyone even know what those things are?
48
120260
3000
zna li neko uopšte šta su te stvari?
02:03
Vaccines, modern medicine,
49
123260
3000
Vakcine, moderna medicina,
02:06
our ability to feed billions of people,
50
126260
2000
naša sposobnost da nahranimo milijarde ljudi,
02:08
those are triumphs of the scientific method.
51
128260
2000
to su dostignuća naučnih metoda.
02:10
And to my mind, the scientific method --
52
130260
2000
Po mom mišljenju, naučni metod,
02:12
trying stuff out,
53
132260
2000
isprobavanje stvari,
02:14
seeing if it works, changing it when it doesn't --
54
134260
3000
proveravanje da li rade, menjanje kad ne rade,
02:17
is one of the great accomplishments of humanity.
55
137260
2000
to je jedno od najvećih dostignuća čovečanstva.
02:19
So that's the good news.
56
139260
2000
Dakle, to su dobre vesti.
02:21
Unfortunately, that's all the good news
57
141260
2000
Nažalost, to je sve od dobrih vesti
02:23
because there are some other problems, and they've been mentioned many times.
58
143260
3000
jer postoje neki drugi problemi, koji su pominjani mnogo puta,
02:26
And one of them is that
59
146260
2000
a jedan je od njih je taj
02:28
despite all our accomplishments,
60
148260
2000
da uprkos mnogim dostignućima,
02:30
a billion people go to bed hungry
61
150260
2000
milijarda ljudi na svetu ide
02:32
in this world every day.
62
152260
2000
na spavanje gladna, svakog dana.
02:34
That number's rising, and it's rising really rapidly, and it's disgraceful.
63
154260
3000
Taj broj raste i raste veoma brzo i to je sramota.
02:37
And not only that, we've used our imagination
64
157260
3000
I ne samo to, iskoristili smo maštu
02:40
to thoroughly trash this globe.
65
160260
2000
da temeljno uništimo ovu planetu.
02:42
Potable water, arable land,
66
162260
2000
Vodovod, obradiva zemlja,
02:44
rainforests, oil, gas:
67
164260
2000
prašume, nafta, gas:
02:46
they're going away, and they're going away soon,
68
166260
3000
oni nestaju i nestaće uskoro
02:49
and unless we innovate our way out of this mess,
69
169260
3000
i ukoliko ne izmislimo izlaz iz tog haosa
02:52
we're going away too.
70
172260
2000
i mi ćemo nestati.
02:54
So the question is: Can we do that? And I think we can.
71
174260
3000
Znači, pitanje je: možemo li mi to? Ja mislim da možemo.
02:57
I think it's clear that we can make food
72
177260
2000
Mislim da je očigledno da možemo da napravimo hranu
02:59
that will feed billions of people without raping the land that they live on.
73
179260
3000
koja će nahraniti milijarde ljudi, bez silovanja zemlje na kojoj žive.
03:02
I think we can power this world with energy
74
182260
2000
Mislim da možemo da snabdemo svet energijom
03:04
that doesn't also destroy it.
75
184260
2000
koja ga u isto vreme ne uništava.
03:06
I really do believe that, and, no, it ain't wishful thinking.
76
186260
3000
Zaista verujem u to i ne, to nije maštanje.
03:09
But here's the thing that keeps me up at night --
77
189260
3000
Ali postoji nešto što me drži budnim noću -
03:12
one of the things that keeps me up at night:
78
192260
3000
jedna od stvari koje me drže budnim.
03:16
We've never needed progress in science more than we need it right now. Never.
79
196260
3000
Nikada nam napredak u nauci nije bio potrebniji nego sada,
03:19
And we've also never been in a position
80
199260
2000
a isto tako nismo nikada bili u poziciji
03:21
to deploy it properly in the way that we can today.
81
201260
2000
da je razvijemo na pravi način, kao što smo danas.
03:23
We're on the verge of amazing, amazing events
82
203260
3000
Na ivici smo neverovatnih događaja
03:26
in many fields,
83
206260
2000
na mnogim poljima.
03:28
and yet I actually think we'd have to go back
84
208260
2000
Ali opet, mislim da bismo morali da se vratimo
03:30
hundreds, 300 years, before the Enlightenment,
85
210260
3000
nazad stotinama godina, 300 godina, pre prosvetiteljstva,
03:33
to find a time when we battled progress,
86
213260
3000
da nađemo vreme kada smo se borili sa napretkom,
03:36
when we fought about these things
87
216260
2000
kada smo se borili za ove stvari
03:38
more vigorously, on more fronts, than we do now.
88
218260
3000
energičnije, na više frontova, nego što to činimo danas.
03:41
People wrap themselves in their beliefs,
89
221260
2000
Ljudi toliko urone u svoja uverenja
03:43
and they do it so tightly that you can't set them free.
90
223260
3000
i to tako snažno da ih ne možete osloboditi.
03:46
Not even the truth will set them free.
91
226260
2000
Ni istina ih ne može osloboditi.
03:48
And, listen, everyone's entitled to their opinion;
92
228260
3000
I slušajte, svako ima prava na svoje mišljenje;
03:51
they're even entitled to their opinion about progress.
93
231260
2000
čak i svoje mišljenje o napretku,
03:53
But you know what you're not entitled to?
94
233260
2000
ali znate na šta nemate prava?
03:55
You're not entitled to your own facts. Sorry, you're not.
95
235260
3000
Nemate prava na sopstvene činjenice. Žao mi je, nemate.
03:58
And this took me awhile to figure out.
96
238260
2000
Bilo mi je potrebno vremena da ovo shvatim.
04:00
About a decade ago, I wrote a story about vaccines
97
240260
2000
Pre nekih deset godina, pisao sam o vakcinama
04:02
for The New Yorker. A little story.
98
242260
2000
kratku priču, za "New Yorker".
04:04
And I was amazed to find opposition:
99
244260
2000
I bio sam zapanjen protivljenjima
04:06
opposition to what is, after all,
100
246260
3000
nečemu što je ipak
04:09
the most effective public health measure in human history.
101
249260
3000
najefektnija mera javnog zdravlja u ljudskoj istoriji.
04:12
I didn't know what to do,
102
252260
2000
Nisam znao šta da radim,
04:14
so I just did what I do: I wrote a story and I moved on.
103
254260
3000
pa sam uradio ono što i radim, napisao priču i nastavio.
04:17
And soon after that,
104
257260
3000
Ubrzo posle toga
04:20
I wrote a story about genetically engineered food.
105
260260
2000
napisao sam priču o genetski modifikovanoj hrani.
04:22
Same thing, only bigger.
106
262260
2000
Ista stvar, samo veća.
04:24
People were going crazy.
107
264260
2000
Ljudi su ludeli.
04:26
So I wrote a story about that too,
108
266260
2000
Pa sam i o tome napisao priču
04:28
and I couldn't understand why
109
268260
2000
i nisam mogao da razumem zašto
04:30
people thought this was "Frankenfoods,"
110
270260
2000
su ljudi mislili da je to "frankenhrana",
04:32
why they thought moving molecules around
111
272260
2000
zašto misle da je razmeštanje molekula
04:34
in a specific, rather than a haphazard way,
112
274260
3000
na određen, a ne na slučajan način,
04:37
was trespassing on nature's ground.
113
277260
3000
prelaženje granica prirode.
04:40
But, you know, I do what I do. I wrote the story, I moved on.
114
280260
2000
Ali, znate, ja radim ono što radim. Napisao sam priču, nastavio sam.
04:42
I mean, I'm a journalist.
115
282260
2000
Mislim, ja sam novinar;
04:44
We type, we file, we go to dinner. It's fine.
116
284260
3000
mi kucamo, sačuvamo, odemo na večeru, sve je super.
04:47
(Laughter)
117
287260
2000
(Smeh)
04:50
But these stories bothered me,
118
290260
2000
Ali te priče mi nisu dale mira,
04:52
and I couldn't figure out why, and eventually I did.
119
292260
2000
nisam mogao da shvatim zašto, ali na kraju sam shvatio.
04:54
And that's because those fanatics that were driving me crazy
120
294260
3000
A to je zato što ti fanatici koji su me izluđivali
04:57
weren't actually fanatics at all.
121
297260
2000
ustvari uopšte nisu fanatici.
04:59
They were thoughtful people, educated people, decent people.
122
299260
3000
To su brižni ljudi, obrazovani, pristojni.
05:02
They were exactly like the people in this room.
123
302260
3000
Jednaki ljudima iz ove prostorije.
05:06
And it just disturbed me so much.
124
306260
2000
To me je mnogo uznemiravalo.
05:08
But then I thought, you know, let's be honest.
125
308260
3000
ali onda sam pomislio, budimo iskreni:
05:11
We're at a point in this world
126
311260
2000
nalazimo se u momentu
05:13
where we don't have the same relationship to progress that we used to.
127
313260
3000
u kome nemamo isti odnos prema napretku kao što smo imali.
05:16
We talk about it ambivalently.
128
316260
2000
Pričamo o tome sa ambivalencijom.
05:18
We talk about it in ironic terms with little quotes around it:
129
318260
2000
Pričamo o tome ironično, sa navodnicima:
05:20
"progress."
130
320260
2000
"Napredak".
05:23
Okay, there are reasons for that, and I think we know what those reasons are.
131
323260
3000
OK, postoje razlozi za to i mislim da znamo koji su.
05:26
We've lost faith in institutions,
132
326260
2000
Izgubili smo veru u institucije,
05:28
in authority,
133
328260
2000
u autoritet,
05:30
and sometimes in science itself,
134
330260
2000
ponekad i u samu nauku,
05:32
and there's no reason we shouldn't have.
135
332260
2000
i zašto i ne bismo.
05:34
You can just say a few names
136
334260
2000
Možete navesti nekoliko imena
05:36
and people will understand.
137
336260
2000
i ljudi će razumeti.
05:38
Chernobyl, Bhopal, the Challenger,
138
338260
3000
Černobil, Bopal, "Challenger",
05:41
Vioxx, weapons of mass destruction,
139
341260
3000
Vioxx (lek za artritis), oružje masovnog uništenja,
05:44
hanging chads.
140
344260
2000
birački listići.
05:46
You know, you can choose your list.
141
346260
3000
Mislim, možete sami napraviti svoju listu.
05:49
There are questions and problems
142
349260
2000
Postoje pitanja i problemi
05:51
with the people we used to believe were always right,
143
351260
2000
u vezi s ljudima za koje smo mislili da su uvek u pravu.
05:53
so be skeptical.
144
353260
2000
Pa budite skeptični.
05:56
Ask questions, demand proof, demand evidence.
145
356260
3000
Postavljajte pitanja, zahtevajte dokaze, zahtevajte činjenice.
05:59
Don't take anything for granted.
146
359260
2000
Ne uzimajte ništa zdravo za gotovo.
06:01
But here's the thing: When you get proof,
147
361260
3000
Ali stvar je u sledećem: kada dobijete dokaz,
06:04
you need to accept the proof, and we're not that good at doing that.
148
364260
3000
morate ga prihvatiti, a u tome nismo baš tako dobri.
06:07
And the reason that I can say that is because
149
367260
2000
Ovo govorim iz razloga
06:09
we're now in an epidemic of fear
150
369260
2000
što se sada nalazimo u epidemiji straha
06:11
like one I've never seen and hope never to see again.
151
371260
3000
kakvu nikada nisam video i nadam se da više neću ni videti.
06:14
About 12 years ago, there was a story published,
152
374260
2000
Pre oko 12 godina objavljena je priča,
06:16
a horrible story,
153
376260
2000
užasna priča,
06:18
that linked the epidemic of autism
154
378260
3000
koja je povezala epidemiju autizma
06:21
to the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine shot.
155
381260
3000
sa vakcinom protiv malih boginja, zauški i rubeole.
06:24
Very scary.
156
384260
2000
Veoma strašno.
06:26
Tons of studies were done to see if this was true.
157
386260
3000
Gomile studija je urađeno da se proveri istinitost ovoga.
06:29
Tons of studies should have been done; it's a serious issue.
158
389260
3000
Trebalo je uraditi mnogo studija; ovo je ozbiljna stvar.
06:32
The data came back.
159
392260
2000
Stigli su podaci.
06:34
The data came back from the United States, from England,
160
394260
2000
Stigli su podaci iz Sjedinjenih Država, iz Engleske,
06:36
from Sweden, from Canada,
161
396260
2000
Švedske, Kanade
06:38
and it was all the same: no correlation,
162
398260
2000
i svi su bili isti, nema korelacije,
06:40
no connection, none at all.
163
400260
2000
ne postoji uopšte nikakva veza.
06:42
It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter
164
402260
2000
To nije bitno. Nije bitno
06:44
because we believe anecdotes,
165
404260
2000
jer mi verujemo u anegdote,
06:46
we believe what we see, what we think we see,
166
406260
2000
verujemo u ono što vidimo, u ono što mislimo da vidimo,
06:48
what makes us feel real.
167
408260
2000
što čini da se osećamo stvarno.
06:50
We don't believe a bunch of documents
168
410260
2000
Ne verujemo u gomile dokumenata
06:52
from a government official giving us data,
169
412260
2000
u kojima nam vladini službenici daju podatke
06:54
and I do understand that, I think we all do.
170
414260
2000
i to zaista razumem, mislim da svi razumemo.
06:56
But you know what?
171
416260
2000
Ali znate šta?
06:58
The result of that has been disastrous.
172
418260
2000
Rezultat toga je katastrofalan,
07:00
Disastrous because here's a fact:
173
420260
3000
katastrofalan, jer evo činjenice:
07:03
The United States is one of the only countries in the world
174
423260
2000
Sjedinjene Države su jedna od malo država na svetu
07:05
where the vaccine rate for measles is going down.
175
425260
3000
u kojoj stopa vakcinacije protiv malih boginja opada.
07:08
That is disgraceful,
176
428260
2000
To je sramota
07:10
and we should be ashamed of ourselves.
177
430260
2000
i trebalo bi da se stidimo sebe.
07:12
It's horrible.
178
432260
2000
To je užasno.
07:14
What kind of a thing happened
179
434260
2000
Šta se desilo
07:16
that we could do that?
180
436260
2000
pa da uradimo to.
07:18
Now, I understand it. I do understand it.
181
438260
3000
Ja to razumem. Zaista razumem.
07:21
Because, did anyone have measles here?
182
441260
2000
Jer, da li neko ovde ima boginje?
07:23
Has one person in this audience ever seen someone die of measles?
183
443260
3000
Da li je neko iz ove publike video da je neko umro od boginja?
07:26
Doesn't happen very much.
184
446260
2000
To se ne dešava baš mnogo.
07:28
Doesn't happen in this country at all,
185
448260
2000
U ovoj zemlji se uopšte ne dešava,
07:30
but it happened 160,000 times in the world last year.
186
450260
2000
ali desilo se 160 000 puta u svetu prošle godine.
07:32
That's a lot of death of measles --
187
452260
2000
To je mnogo smrti od boginja,
07:34
20 an hour.
188
454260
2000
20 na sat.
07:36
But since it didn't happen here, we can put it out of our minds,
189
456260
3000
Ali pošto se nije desilo ovde, možemo da ne mislimo na to,
07:39
and people like Jenny McCarthy
190
459260
2000
a ljudi kao Dženi Mekarti
07:41
can go around preaching messages
191
461260
2000
mogu da idu okolo i šire poruke
07:43
of fear and illiteracy from platforms
192
463260
2000
straha i neznanja sa mesta
07:45
like "Oprah" and "Larry King Live."
193
465260
3000
kao što su "Opra" ili "Leri King uživo".
07:48
And they can do it because
194
468260
2000
A to mogu da rade
07:50
they don't link causation and correlation.
195
470260
2000
jer ne povezuju uzročnost i korelaciju.
07:52
They don't understand that these things seem the same,
196
472260
3000
Ne razumeju da ove stvari izgledaju isto,
07:55
but they're almost never the same.
197
475260
2000
ali skoro nikada nisu iste.
07:57
And it's something we need to learn, and we need to learn it really soon.
198
477260
3000
I to je nešto što moramo da naučimo i to vrlo brzo.
08:00
This guy was a hero, Jonas Salk.
199
480260
3000
Ovaj momak je bio heroj, Džonas Salk.
08:03
He took one of the worst scourges of mankind away from us.
200
483260
3000
On je uklonio jednu od najvećih muka čovečanstva.
08:06
No fear, no agony. Polio -- puff, gone.
201
486260
3000
Nema straha, agonije, poliomielitis - puf, nestao.
08:09
That guy in the middle, not so much.
202
489260
3000
Taj lik u sredini i nije toliko uspeo.
08:12
His name is Paul Offit.
203
492260
2000
Zove se Pol Ofit.
08:14
He just developed a rotavirus vaccine with a bunch of other people.
204
494260
2000
On je sa gomilom drugih ljudi samo pronašao vakcinu za rotavirus.
08:16
It'll save the lives of 400 to 500,000 kids
205
496260
3000
To spašava živote 400, 500 000 dece
08:19
in the developing world every year.
206
499260
2000
u zemljama u razvoju svake godine.
08:21
Pretty good, right?
207
501260
2000
Prilično dobro, zar ne?
08:23
Well, it's good, except that Paul goes around talking about vaccines
208
503260
2000
Pa dobro je, ali Pol ide okolo i priča o vakcinama
08:25
and says how valuable they are
209
505260
2000
i o tome koliko su vredne
08:27
and that people ought to just stop the whining.
210
507260
2000
i da bi ljudi trebalo da prestanu s kukanjem.
08:29
And he actually says it that way.
211
509260
2000
To kaže baš na taj način.
08:31
So, Paul's a terrorist.
212
511260
3000
Dakle, Pol je terorista.
08:34
When Paul speaks in a public hearing,
213
514260
2000
Kada Pol govori na javnom saslušanju,
08:36
he can't testify without armed guards.
214
516260
2000
ne može da svedoči bez naoružanih čuvara.
08:38
He gets called at home
215
518260
2000
Zovu ga kući
08:40
because people like to tell him
216
520260
2000
jer ljudi vole da mu kažu
08:42
that they remember where his kids go to school.
217
522260
2000
da znaju gde njegova deca idu u školu.
08:44
And why? Because Paul made a vaccine.
218
524260
3000
A zašto? Jer je Pol napravio vakcinu.
08:47
I don't need to say this, but vaccines are essential.
219
527260
3000
Ne moram ovo da kažem, ali vakcine su potrebne.
08:50
You take them away, disease comes back,
220
530260
2000
Ako ih ukinete, bolesti se vrate,
08:52
horrible diseases. And that's happening.
221
532260
3000
užasne bolesti i to se dešava.
08:55
We have measles in this country now.
222
535260
2000
Sada u ovoj zemlji imamo boginje.
08:57
And it's getting worse, and pretty soon kids
223
537260
2000
I pogoršava se i uskoro će deca
08:59
are going to die of it again because it's just a numbers game.
224
539260
2000
opet početi da umiru od njih jer je to igra brojeva.
09:01
And they're not just going to die of measles.
225
541260
2000
I neće umreti samo od boginja.
09:03
What about polio? Let's have that. Why not?
226
543260
2000
Šta je sa poliom? Uzmimo i to. Što da ne?
09:05
A college classmate of mine wrote me a couple weeks ago and said
227
545260
3000
Jedna koleginica sa fakulteta mi je pisala pre par nedelja
09:08
she thought I was a little strident.
228
548260
2000
i rekla je da sam malo kreštav.
09:10
No one's ever said that before.
229
550260
3000
Niko to pre nije rekao.
09:13
She wasn't going to vaccinate her kid against polio,
230
553260
2000
Ona nije nameravala da vakciniše svoje dete protiv polia.
09:15
no way.
231
555260
2000
Nema šanse.
09:17
Fine.
232
557260
2000
Dobro.
09:19
Why? Because we don't have polio. And you know what?
233
559260
2000
Zašto? Zato što toga nema kod nas. I znate šta?
09:21
We didn't have polio in this country yesterday.
234
561260
3000
Nije ga bilo juče.
09:24
Today, I don't know, maybe a guy got on a plane in Lagos this morning,
235
564260
3000
Danas, ne znam, možda je neki tip jutros seo u avion u Lagosu
09:27
and he's flying to LAX, right now he's over Ohio.
236
567260
2000
i sleteće u Los Anđeles, upravo sada je iznad Ohaja.
09:29
And he's going to land in a couple of hours, he's going to rent a car,
237
569260
3000
Sleteće za nekoliko sati, iznajmiti auto
09:32
and he's going to come to Long Beach,
238
572260
2000
i doći će u Long Bič
09:34
and he's going to attend one of these fabulous TED dinners tonight.
239
574260
3000
i prisustvovaće jednoj od ovih divnih TED večera večeras.
09:37
And he doesn't know that he's infected with a paralytic disease,
240
577260
3000
I on ne zna da je inficiran parališućom bolešću,
09:40
and we don't either because that's the way the world works.
241
580260
3000
a ne znamo ni mi, jer svet tako funkcioniše.
09:43
That's the planet we live on. Don't pretend it isn't.
242
583260
3000
Na takvoj planeti živimo. Ne pretvarajte se da nije tako.
09:46
Now, we love to wrap ourselves in lies. We love to do it.
243
586260
3000
Sad, mi volimo da se umotavamo u laži. Obožavamo.
09:49
Everyone take their vitamins this morning?
244
589260
2000
Da li ste svi uzeli vitamine jutros?
09:51
Echinacea, a little antioxidant
245
591260
2000
Malo antioksidanta,
09:53
to get you going.
246
593260
2000
da vas pokrenu?
09:55
I know you did because half of Americans do every day.
247
595260
3000
Znam da jeste, jer polovina Amerikanaca ih uzima svakog dana.
09:58
They take the stuff, and they take alternative medicines,
248
598260
3000
Uzimaju te stvari i uzimaju alternativne lekove,
10:01
and it doesn't matter how often
249
601260
2000
nebitno koliko puta
10:03
we find out that they're useless.
250
603260
2000
otkrijemo da su beskorisni.
10:05
The data says it all the time.
251
605260
2000
Podaci to stalno govore.
10:07
They darken your urine. They almost never do more than that.
252
607260
3000
Oni potamnjuju vaš urin. Skoro nikad ne rade više od toga.
10:10
(Laughter)
253
610260
2000
(Smeh)
10:12
It's okay, you want to pay 28 billion dollars for dark urine?
254
612260
3000
U redu je, ako želite da plaćate 28 milijardi dolara za taman urin,
10:15
I'm totally with you.
255
615260
2000
potpuno vas podržavam.
10:17
(Laughter)
256
617260
2000
(Smeh)
10:19
Dark urine. Dark.
257
619260
3000
Taman urin. Taman.
10:22
Why do we do that? Why do we do that?
258
622260
2000
Zašto to radimo? Zašto?
10:24
Well, I think I understand, we hate Big Pharma.
259
624260
2000
Pa, mislim da razumem, mrzimo velike farmaceute.
10:26
We hate Big Government. We don't trust the Man.
260
626260
2000
Mrzimo veliku vladu. Ne verujemo čoveku.
10:28
And we shouldn't: Our health care system sucks.
261
628260
3000
I ne bi ni trebalo. Naš zdravstveni sistem je loš.
10:31
It's cruel to millions of people.
262
631260
2000
Surov je prema milionima ljudi.
10:33
It's absolutely astonishingly cold
263
633260
3000
Potpuno je zaprepašćujuće hladan
10:36
and soul-bending to those of us who can even afford it.
264
636260
3000
i surov prema nama koji možemo da ga priuštimo.
10:39
So we run away from it, and where do we run?
265
639260
3000
Tako da onda bežimo od njega, a gde bežimo?
10:42
We leap into the arms of Big Placebo.
266
642260
2000
Skačemo u ruke velikog placeba.
10:44
(Laughter)
267
644260
3000
(Smeh)
10:47
That's fantastic. I love Big Placebo.
268
647260
2000
To je fantastično. Obožavam veliki placebo.
10:49
(Applause)
269
649260
5000
(Aplauz)
10:54
But, you know, it's really a serious thing
270
654260
3000
Ali znate, to je ozbiljna stvar,
10:57
because this stuff is crap,
271
657260
2000
jer te stvari su sranje,
10:59
and we spend billions of dollars on it.
272
659260
2000
a mi trošimo milijarde dolara na to.
11:01
And I have all sorts of little props here.
273
661260
3000
Imam svakakve stvari ovde.
11:04
None of it ... ginkgo, fraud;
274
664260
2000
Ništa od toga - ginko, prevara,
11:06
echinacea, fraud;
275
666260
2000
biljni lek protiv gripe, prevara,
11:08
acai -- I don't even know what that is
276
668260
2000
akai, ne znam ni šta je to
11:10
but we're spending billions of dollars on it -- it's fraud.
277
670260
3000
ali trošimo milijarde dolara na njega, to je prevara.
11:13
And you know what? When I say this stuff, people scream at me,
278
673260
2000
I znate šta? Kada to kažem ljudi viču na mene,
11:15
and they say, "What do you care? Let people do what they want to do.
279
675260
3000
i kažu, "Šta tebe briga? Pusti ljude da rade šta žele,
11:18
It makes them feel good."
280
678260
2000
osećaju se dobro zbog toga."
11:20
And you know what? You're wrong.
281
680260
2000
I znate šta? Niste u pravu.
11:22
Because I don't care
282
682260
2000
Jer ne zanima me
11:24
if it's the secretary of HHS
283
684260
2000
i da je sekretar za zdravstvo
11:26
who's saying, "Hmm, I'm not going to take the evidence
284
686260
3000
taj koji kaže: "Hmm, neću poslušati dokaze
11:29
of my experts on mammograms,"
285
689260
2000
svojih stručnjaka za mamograme",
11:31
or some cancer quack who wants to treat his patient
286
691260
3000
ili neki šarlatan za rak koji želi da leči svog pacijenta
11:34
with coffee enemas.
287
694260
2000
klistirom od kafe.
11:36
When you start down the road
288
696260
2000
Kada krenete putem
11:38
where belief and magic replace evidence and science,
289
698260
3000
na kom verovanja i magija zamenjuju dokaze i nauku,
11:41
you end up in a place you don't want to be.
290
701260
2000
završite na mestu gde ne želite da budete.
11:43
You end up in Thabo Mbeki South Africa.
291
703260
2000
Završite u Tabo Mbeki u Južnoj Africi.
11:45
He killed 400,000 of his people
292
705260
3000
On je ubio 400 000 ljudi svog naroda
11:48
by insisting that beetroot,
293
708260
2000
insistirajući da su koren repe,
11:50
garlic and lemon oil
294
710260
2000
beli luk i ulje od limuna
11:52
were much more effective than the antiretroviral drugs
295
712260
2000
mnogo efektniji nego antiretrovirus
11:54
we know can slow the course of AIDS.
296
714260
2000
za koji znamo da može da uspori tok SIDE.
11:56
Hundreds of thousands of needless deaths
297
716260
2000
Stotine hiljada bespotrebnih smrti
11:58
in a country that has been plagued
298
718260
3000
u zemlji koja je zaražena
12:01
worse than any other by this disease.
299
721260
2000
ovom bolešću više nego ijedna druga.
12:03
Please, don't tell me
300
723260
2000
Molim vas nemojte mi reći
12:05
there are no consequences to these things.
301
725260
2000
da nema posledica ovakvih stvari.
12:07
There are. There always are.
302
727260
2000
Ima ih. Uvek ih ima.
12:09
Now, the most mindless epidemic
303
729260
2000
Sad, najbezumnija epidemija u kojoj se trenutno nalazimo
12:11
we're in the middle of right now
304
731260
2000
12:13
is this absurd battle
305
733260
2000
je ova apsurdna borba
12:15
between proponents of genetically engineered food
306
735260
3000
između zagovornika genetski modifikovane hrane
12:18
and the organic elite.
307
738260
2000
i elite organske hrane.
12:20
It's an idiotic debate. It has to stop.
308
740260
2000
To je idiotska rasprava. Mora da prestane.
12:22
It's a debate about words, about metaphors.
309
742260
3000
To je rasprava o rečima, o metaforama.
12:25
It's ideology, it's not science.
310
745260
2000
To je ideologija, ne nauka.
12:27
Every single thing we eat, every grain of rice,
311
747260
2000
Svaku stvar koju jedemo, svako zrno pirinča,
12:29
every sprig of parsley,
312
749260
2000
svaki listić peršuna,
12:31
every Brussels sprout
313
751260
2000
svaki prokelj
12:33
has been modified by man.
314
753260
2000
je čovek već izmenio.
12:35
You know, there weren't tangerines in the garden of Eden.
315
755260
2000
Znate, u rajskom vrtu nisu postojale mandarine.
12:37
There wasn't any cantaloupe. (Laughter)
316
757260
2000
Nisu postojale dinje.
12:39
There weren't Christmas trees. We made it all.
317
759260
3000
Nije bilo božićnih jelki. Mi smo sve to napravili.
12:42
We made it over the last 11,000 years.
318
762260
3000
Napravili smo sve to u toku poslednjih 11 000 godina.
12:45
And some of it worked, and some of it didn't.
319
765260
2000
Nešto je uspelo, nešto nije.
12:47
We got rid of the stuff that didn't.
320
767260
2000
Otarasili smo se stvari koje nisu uspele.
12:49
Now we can do it in a more precise way --
321
769260
2000
Sada to možemo da činimo još preciznije.
12:51
and there are risks, absolutely --
322
771260
2000
Postoje rizici, naravno.
12:53
but we can put something like vitamin A into rice,
323
773260
3000
Ali možemo staviti vitamin A u pirinač
12:56
and that stuff can help millions of people,
324
776260
3000
i to može pomoći milionima ljudi,
12:59
millions of people, prolong their lives.
325
779260
3000
milionima ljudi može produžiti život.
13:02
You don't want to do that?
326
782260
2000
Ne želite to da radite?
13:04
I have to say, I don't understand it.
327
784260
3000
Moram reći da ne razumem.
13:07
We object to genetically engineered food.
328
787260
2000
Protivimo se genetskom modifikovanju hrane.
13:09
Why do we do that?
329
789260
2000
Zašto to činimo?
13:11
Well, the things I constantly hear are:
330
791260
2000
Pa, stvari koje stalno čujem su:
13:13
Too many chemicals,
331
793260
2000
previše hemikalija,
13:15
pesticides, hormones,
332
795260
2000
pesticidi, hormoni,
13:17
monoculture, we don't want giant fields
333
797260
2000
monokulture, ne želimo ogromna polja
13:19
of the same thing, that's wrong.
334
799260
2000
iste stvati, to je pogrešno.
13:21
We don't companies patenting life.
335
801260
2000
Ne želimo da kompanije patentiraju život.
13:23
We don't want companies owning seeds.
336
803260
2000
Ne želimo da kompanije poseduju semena.
13:25
And you know what my response to all of that is?
337
805260
2000
I znate koji je moj odgovor na sve to?
13:27
Yes, you're right. Let's fix it.
338
807260
3000
Da, u pravu ste. Hajde da to popravimo.
13:30
It's true, we've got a huge food problem,
339
810260
2000
Istina je, imamo ogroman problem sa hranom,
13:32
but this isn't science.
340
812260
2000
ali ovo nije nauka.
13:34
This has nothing to do with science.
341
814260
2000
To nema nikakve veze sa naukom.
13:36
It's law, it's morality, it's patent stuff.
342
816260
3000
To je zakon, moral, stvar patenta.
13:39
You know science isn't a company.
343
819260
2000
Znate nauka nije neka kompanija.
13:41
It's not a country.
344
821260
2000
To nije država.
13:43
It's not even an idea; it's a process.
345
823260
3000
Nije čak ni ideja; to je proces.
13:46
It's a process, and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't,
346
826260
3000
To je proces i nekada uspeva, nekada ne,
13:49
but the idea that we should not allow
347
829260
3000
ali ideja da ne treba da dozvolimo
13:52
science to do its job
348
832260
2000
da nauka radi svoj posao
13:54
because we're afraid,
349
834260
2000
jer se plašimo,
13:56
is really very deadening,
350
836260
2000
je stvarno vrlo smrtonosna
13:58
and it's preventing millions of people
351
838260
2000
i sprečava da milioni ljudi napreduju.
14:00
from prospering.
352
840260
2000
14:02
You know, in the next 50 years
353
842260
2000
Znate, u narednih 50 godina
14:04
we're going to have to grow 70 percent more food than we do right now,
354
844260
3000
moraćemo da gajimo 70% više hrane nego sada,
14:07
70 percent.
355
847260
2000
70%.
14:09
This investment in Africa over the last 30 years.
356
849260
3000
Ovo je ulaganje u Afriku u poslednjih 30 godina.
14:12
Disgraceful. Disgraceful.
357
852260
2000
Sramotno. Sramotno.
14:14
They need it, and we're not giving it to them.
358
854260
2000
Njima je to potrebno, a mi im ne dajemo.
14:16
And why? Genetically engineered food.
359
856260
3000
Zašto? Genetski modifikovana hrana.
14:19
We don't want to encourage people
360
859260
2000
Ne želimo da podstičemo ljude
14:21
to eat that rotten stuff, like cassava for instance.
361
861260
3000
da jedu te užasne stvari, kao što je maniok na primer.
14:24
Cassava's something that half a billion people eat.
362
864260
2000
Maniok je nešto što jede pola milijarde ljudi.
14:26
It's kind of like a potato.
363
866260
2000
Liči na krompir.
14:28
It's just a bunch of calories. It sucks.
364
868260
2000
Samo gomila kalorija. Odvratno je.
14:30
It doesn't have nutrients, it doesn't have protein,
365
870260
2000
Nema ništa hranljivo, proteine,
14:32
and scientists are engineering
366
872260
2000
a naučnici upravo
14:34
all of that into it right now.
367
874260
2000
ubacuju sve to unutra.
14:36
And then people would be able to eat it and they'd be able to not go blind.
368
876260
3000
I onda će ljudi moći to da jedu, a da ne oslepe.
14:39
They wouldn't starve, and you know what?
369
879260
2000
Neće gladovati, i znate šta?
14:41
That would be nice. It wouldn't be Chez Panisse,
370
881260
3000
To bi bilo lepo.
Ne bi bilo kao u fensi restoranu, ali bi bilo lepo.
14:44
but it would be nice.
371
884260
2000
14:48
And all I can say about this is:
372
888260
2000
I sve što ja imam da kažem o tome je:
14:50
Why are we fighting it?
373
890260
2000
zašto se borimo protiv toga?
14:52
I mean, let's ask ourselves: Why are we fighting it?
374
892260
2000
Mislim, zapitajmo se: zašto se opiremo tome?
14:54
Because we don't want to move genes around?
375
894260
2000
Zato što ne želimo da premeštamo gene?
14:56
This is about moving genes around. It's not about chemicals.
376
896260
3000
Ovde se radi o pomeranju gena. Ne radi se o hemikalijama.
14:59
It's not about our ridiculous passion for hormones,
377
899260
3000
Ne radi se o našoj smešnoj strasti za hormonima,
15:02
our insistence on having bigger food,
378
902260
2000
našem nastojanju da imamo veću hranu,
15:04
better food, singular food.
379
904260
2000
bolju hranu, jedinstvenu hranu.
15:06
This isn't about Rice Krispies,
380
906260
2000
Ne radi se o pahuljicama,
15:08
this is about keeping people alive,
381
908260
2000
radi se o održavanju ljudi u životu,
15:10
and it's about time we started to understand what that meant.
382
910260
3000
i vreme je da počnemo da razumevamo šta to znači.
15:13
Because, you know something?
383
913260
2000
Jer, znate šta?
15:15
If we don't, if we continue to act the way we're acting,
384
915260
3000
Ako nastavimo da se ponašamo kako se ponašamo,
15:18
we're guilty of something that I don't think we want to be guilty of:
385
918260
3000
bićemo krivi za nešto za šta mislim da ne želimo da budemo krivi,
15:21
high-tech colonialism.
386
921260
2000
tehničku kolonizaciju.
15:23
There's no other way to describe what's going on here.
387
923260
2000
Ne postoji drugačiji način da se opiše ono što se dešava.
15:25
It's selfish, it's ugly,
388
925260
2000
Sebično je, ružno je,
15:27
it's beneath us,
389
927260
2000
to je ispod našeg nivoa
15:29
and we really have to stop it.
390
929260
3000
i zaista moramo to da zaustavimo.
15:32
So after this amazingly fun conversation,
391
932260
3000
Dakle, posle ove neverovatno zabavne prezentacije,
15:35
(Laughter)
392
935260
2000
(Smeh)
15:37
you might want to say, "So, you still want to get in this
393
937260
2000
možda ćete poželeti da kažete, "Znači, i dalje želiš
15:39
ridiculous time machine and go forward?"
394
939260
2000
da se ukrcaš u taj smešni vremeplov i ideš napred?"
15:41
Absolutely. Absolutely, I do.
395
941260
3000
Apsolutno. Apsolutno, želim.
15:44
It's stuck in the present right now,
396
944260
2000
Trenutno je zaglavljen u sadašnjosti,
15:46
but we have an amazing opportunity.
397
946260
2000
ali imamo neverovatnu mogućnost.
15:48
We can set that time machine on anything we want.
398
948260
3000
Možemo podesiti taj vremeplov na šta god želimo.
15:51
We can move it where we want to move it,
399
951260
2000
Možemo ga pomerati kuda god želimo,
15:53
and we're going to move it where we want to move it.
400
953260
2000
i pomerićemo ga kuda želimo.
15:55
We have to have these conversations and we have to think,
401
955260
3000
Moramo voditi ovakve razgovore i moramo misliti,
15:58
but when we get in the time machine and we go ahead,
402
958260
3000
ali kada uđemo u vremeplov i krenemo napred
16:01
we're going to be happy we do.
403
961260
2000
bićemo srećni zbog toga.
16:03
I know that we can,
404
963260
2000
Znam da možemo
16:05
and as far as I'm concerned,
405
965260
2000
i što se mene tiče,
16:07
that's something the world needs right now.
406
967260
3000
to je nešto što je svetu potrebno upravo sada.
16:10
(Applause)
407
970260
2000
Hvala vam.
16:12
Thank you.
408
972260
3000
(Aplauz)
16:15
Thank you.
409
975260
2000
Hvala vam.
16:17
Thank you. Thank you.
410
977260
4000
(Aplauz)
About this website

This site will introduce you to YouTube videos that are useful for learning English. You will see English lessons taught by top-notch teachers from around the world. Double-click on the English subtitles displayed on each video page to play the video from there. The subtitles scroll in sync with the video playback. If you have any comments or requests, please contact us using this contact form.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7