The danger of science denial | Michael Specter

462,933 views ・ 2010-04-12

TED


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譯者: Geoff Chen 審譯者: Coco Shen
00:15
Let's pretend right here we have a machine.
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想像一下這裡有一臺機器,
00:18
A big machine, a cool, TED-ish machine,
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一臺巨大的、炫麗的、很 TED 的機器,
00:20
and it's a time machine.
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它是一個時間機器,
00:22
And everyone in this room has to get into it.
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在這房間裡的每一個人都要走進這個時間機器
00:24
And you can go backwards, you can go forwards;
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你可以選擇回到過去、或走向未來
00:26
you cannot stay where you are.
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你就是不能停在當下
00:28
And I wonder what you'd choose, because I've been asking my friends
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我在想你們會怎麼選,因為最近我問我朋友,
00:30
this question a lot lately and they all want to go back.
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他們的回答都是「回到過去」
00:33
I don't know. They want to go back before there were automobiles
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我不知道。他們想要回到沒有汽車、
00:35
or Twitter or "American Idol."
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沒有 Twitter 或《美國偶像》(American Idol)的年代
00:37
I don't know.
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我搞不懂
00:39
I'm convinced that there's some sort of pull
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我肯定他們心裡有種懷舊的情愫
00:41
to nostalgia, to wishful thinking.
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或是癡心妄想
00:43
And I understand that.
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這我能理解
00:45
I'm not part of that crowd, I have to say.
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但我必須承認,我跟他們不是同一掛的
00:48
I don't want to go back, and it's not because I'm adventurous.
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我不想回到過去,不是因為我喜歡冒險 --
00:50
It's because possibilities on this planet,
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而是因為,這個地球的可能性
00:52
they don't go back, they go forward.
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無法從過去獲得,你要向未來前進
00:54
So I want to get in the machine, and I want to go forward.
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也就是說,我想走進這個機器,走到未來
00:57
This is the greatest time there's ever been on this planet
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這個時代是最美好的時代,
01:00
by any measure that you wish to choose:
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不管你用何種方式來衡量,如:
01:02
health, wealth,
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健康、財富、
01:04
mobility, opportunity,
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流動性、機遇、
01:06
declining rates of disease ...
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患病率不斷下降
01:08
There's never been a time like this.
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從未有過這麼好的時代
01:10
My great-grandparents died, all of them,
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我的曾祖父母
01:12
by the time they were 60.
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在60歲的時候過世
01:14
My grandparents pushed that number to 70.
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我的祖父母多一些,他們在70多歲時離去
01:16
My parents are closing in on 80.
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我的父母過世時已經80幾歲了
01:18
So there better be
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所以,我希望我死去的時候
01:21
a nine at the beginning of my death number.
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是在一個9數字開頭左右的時候
01:24
But it's not even about people like us,
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但這並不只和我們有關
01:26
because this is a bigger deal than that.
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這關係著更多人的生命
01:29
A kid born in New Delhi today
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今天,在新德里出生的某個小孩
01:31
can expect to live as long as
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可以擁有100年前
01:33
the richest man in the world did 100 years ago.
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世界上最富有的人一樣長的壽命
01:35
Think about that, it's an incredible fact.
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你想想,這是個多麼了不起的事!
01:37
And why is it true?
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為什麼會出現這樣的事?
01:39
Smallpox. Smallpox killed billions
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是因為我們消滅了天花
01:41
of people on this planet.
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天花曾奪走地球上數以億計人的生命
01:43
It reshaped the demography of the globe
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它重塑了地球的人口結構
01:45
in a way that no war ever has.
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任何戰爭也無以比擬
01:47
It's gone. It's vanished.
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但今天,它消失了
01:49
We vanquished it. Puff.
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我們克服了它
01:51
In the rich world,
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在當今富裕世界裡
01:53
diseases that threatened millions of us just a generation ago
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那曾經威脅上個世代數百萬人的疾病
01:56
no longer exist, hardly.
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幾乎不再出現了
01:58
Diphtheria, rubella, polio ...
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白喉、德國麻疹、小兒麻痹......
02:00
does anyone even know what those things are?
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有人知道這些是什麼嗎?
02:03
Vaccines, modern medicine,
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疫苗、現代醫學、
02:06
our ability to feed billions of people,
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以及人類為數百萬人提供食品的能力
02:08
those are triumphs of the scientific method.
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這些都是科學法則的勝利
02:10
And to my mind, the scientific method --
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在我看來,科學方法
02:12
trying stuff out,
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就是不斷嘗試、
02:14
seeing if it works, changing it when it doesn't --
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檢驗、改變的過程
02:17
is one of the great accomplishments of humanity.
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它是人類最偉大的成就之一
02:19
So that's the good news.
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因此這些都是好消息
02:21
Unfortunately, that's all the good news
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但不幸的是,好消息就這麼多
02:23
because there are some other problems, and they've been mentioned many times.
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因為我們遇到其他一些難題,它們也被提過很多次
02:26
And one of them is that
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其中一個就是
02:28
despite all our accomplishments,
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儘管我們取得進步,
02:30
a billion people go to bed hungry
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但目前,世界上還有10億人挨餓著
02:32
in this world every day.
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每天,他們都忍受著饑餓的折磨
02:34
That number's rising, and it's rising really rapidly, and it's disgraceful.
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這數字還在上升,上升的速度很快,令人感到羞愧
02:37
And not only that, we've used our imagination
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除此之外,我們還使用自身的想像力
02:40
to thoroughly trash this globe.
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給地球帶來巨大的垃圾
02:42
Potable water, arable land,
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飲用水、可耕地、
02:44
rainforests, oil, gas:
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熱帶雨林、石油、天然氣:
02:46
they're going away, and they're going away soon,
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這些資源都在流失,並且即將消失殆盡
02:49
and unless we innovate our way out of this mess,
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除非我們懂得創新
02:52
we're going away too.
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否則我們也會跟著滅亡
02:54
So the question is: Can we do that? And I think we can.
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問題是: 我們做得到嗎? 我想我們可以
02:57
I think it's clear that we can make food
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我認為我們可以產出足以養活數十億人的糧食
02:59
that will feed billions of people without raping the land that they live on.
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而不會損害他們賴以維生的土地
03:02
I think we can power this world with energy
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我認為,我們可以找到對環境友善的能源
03:04
that doesn't also destroy it.
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而不會毀壞環境
03:06
I really do believe that, and, no, it ain't wishful thinking.
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我確實是這麼相信的,絕非一廂情願
03:09
But here's the thing that keeps me up at night --
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然而,有些事讓我輾轉難眠 --
03:12
one of the things that keeps me up at night:
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其中一個讓我徹夜難眠的事
03:16
We've never needed progress in science more than we need it right now. Never.
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在我們的歷史上,從來沒有如今天這般急需科技的進步。從來沒有。
03:19
And we've also never been in a position
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在歷史上,我們也從未有過今天這樣的時機,
03:21
to deploy it properly in the way that we can today.
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讓我們可以按照自己的意願使用這些科技
03:23
We're on the verge of amazing, amazing events
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在許多領域中,我們都正處於
03:26
in many fields,
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驚人發現的時刻
03:28
and yet I actually think we'd have to go back
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儘管如此,事實上,我認為我們必須回頭看看
03:30
hundreds, 300 years, before the Enlightenment,
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回到300年前,回到啓蒙時代以前
03:33
to find a time when we battled progress,
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只有在那個年代,才有人抵抗進步
03:36
when we fought about these things
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才有人比我們今天更加
03:38
more vigorously, on more fronts, than we do now.
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猛烈地抗拒科技的進步
03:41
People wrap themselves in their beliefs,
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人們總愛把自己放置於信仰裡
03:43
and they do it so tightly that you can't set them free.
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他們捆綁自己,使自己無法脫身
03:46
Not even the truth will set them free.
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即便是真理也無法使他們獲得自由
03:48
And, listen, everyone's entitled to their opinion;
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聽著,每個人都有權抱持他的觀點,
03:51
they're even entitled to their opinion about progress.
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他們甚至有權聲稱他們關於進步的意見
03:53
But you know what you're not entitled to?
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但你知道你沒有權利做什麽嗎?
03:55
You're not entitled to your own facts. Sorry, you're not.
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你無權堅稱你自己所知道的事實。抱歉,你就是無法。
03:58
And this took me awhile to figure out.
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我也是花了一段時間才領悟出來的
04:00
About a decade ago, I wrote a story about vaccines
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大約十年前,我在《紐約客》上寫一篇
04:02
for The New Yorker. A little story.
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關於疫苗的小故事
04:04
And I was amazed to find opposition:
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但我驚訝地發現,竟然有那麼多人反對我
04:06
opposition to what is, after all,
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他們反對的是
04:09
the most effective public health measure in human history.
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人類史上最有效的公共衛生預防措施
04:12
I didn't know what to do,
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我當時不知該怎麼做
04:14
so I just did what I do: I wrote a story and I moved on.
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我就只做自己該做的。故事寫完,繼續搞其他事
04:17
And soon after that,
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不久之後,
04:20
I wrote a story about genetically engineered food.
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我寫了一個關於基因轉殖食物的文章
04:22
Same thing, only bigger.
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同樣地,我又收到大量的反對聲浪,比上次還要大
04:24
People were going crazy.
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人們簡直瘋了
04:26
So I wrote a story about that too,
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於是,我也就此寫了一篇文章
04:28
and I couldn't understand why
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我實在搞不懂
04:30
people thought this was "Frankenfoods,"
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為何人們會把這看作「科學怪人食物」?
04:32
why they thought moving molecules around
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我不理解: 為何人們會認為,以特定的方式移動生物分子
04:34
in a specific, rather than a haphazard way,
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而非按任意的方式,
04:37
was trespassing on nature's ground.
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就是在玩弄自然
04:40
But, you know, I do what I do. I wrote the story, I moved on.
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不過,你知道,我還是做我該做的。故事寫完,我就不管了。
04:42
I mean, I'm a journalist.
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我是個記者,
04:44
We type, we file, we go to dinner. It's fine.
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我們的工作就是打字、發表、吃飯,就這樣。
04:47
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
04:50
But these stories bothered me,
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但,這些故事還是困擾著我
04:52
and I couldn't figure out why, and eventually I did.
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我也不知道是什麼原因,直到後來我才知道爲什麽。
04:54
And that's because those fanatics that were driving me crazy
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因為,那些曾把我逼瘋的狂熱分子
04:57
weren't actually fanatics at all.
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事實上並非狂熱分子
04:59
They were thoughtful people, educated people, decent people.
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他們都是有想法的人、受過教育的人、正經人。
05:02
They were exactly like the people in this room.
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他們完全就像這房裡的所有人,
05:06
And it just disturbed me so much.
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這實在讓我傷透腦筋...
05:08
But then I thought, you know, let's be honest.
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但後來我想,不如打開天窗說亮話吧:
05:11
We're at a point in this world
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在我們今天所處的時代
05:13
where we don't have the same relationship to progress that we used to.
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我們與進步的關係已經不同於以往了,
05:16
We talk about it ambivalently.
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我們現在以一種矛盾的情緒談論它,
05:18
We talk about it in ironic terms with little quotes around it:
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我們以諷刺的口吻來引用進步:
05:20
"progress."
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“進步” (加上引號)
05:23
Okay, there are reasons for that, and I think we know what those reasons are.
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好吧,我想這是有原因的,我們也知道原因是什麼
05:26
We've lost faith in institutions,
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我們對於政府機構
05:28
in authority,
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已失去信任,
05:30
and sometimes in science itself,
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有時對科學本身也是,
05:32
and there's no reason we shouldn't have.
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我們確實有不信任的理由,
05:34
You can just say a few names
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說出幾個名字
05:36
and people will understand.
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你就知道原因為何了
05:38
Chernobyl, Bhopal, the Challenger,
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車諾比、博帕爾、挑戰者號、
05:41
Vioxx, weapons of mass destruction,
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Vioxx 抗關節炎藥、大規模殺傷性武器,
05:44
hanging chads.
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充滿太多爭議
05:46
You know, you can choose your list.
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你可以列出自己的清單
05:49
There are questions and problems
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我們過去深深確信的
05:51
with the people we used to believe were always right,
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現在都出問題了
05:53
so be skeptical.
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所以,還是保持懷疑吧
05:56
Ask questions, demand proof, demand evidence.
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詢問問題、要求證據、
05:59
Don't take anything for granted.
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千萬別凡事信以為真
06:01
But here's the thing: When you get proof,
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但要注意一點: 當你取得證據時
06:04
you need to accept the proof, and we're not that good at doing that.
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你必須接受那樣的證據。我們卻並不善於這麼做。
06:07
And the reason that I can say that is because
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究其原因,我認為
06:09
we're now in an epidemic of fear
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我們現在都得了一種恐懼傳染病
06:11
like one I've never seen and hope never to see again.
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一種我從未見過的、以後也不想再見的恐懼傳染病
06:14
About 12 years ago, there was a story published,
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大約十二年前,媒體報導一則消息
06:16
a horrible story,
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一個非常可怕的故事
06:18
that linked the epidemic of autism
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它把自閉症
06:21
to the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine shot.
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和注射麻疹、腮腺炎、德國麻疹等疫苗連結在一起
06:24
Very scary.
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非常可怕
06:26
Tons of studies were done to see if this was true.
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爲了查明此事,人們展開大量研究
06:29
Tons of studies should have been done; it's a serious issue.
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是有必要做這些大量研究,因為那確實是一個嚴重的議題
06:32
The data came back.
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最後資料出來了
06:34
The data came back from the United States, from England,
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來自美國、英國、
06:36
from Sweden, from Canada,
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瑞典、加拿大的資料檢驗出同樣的結論:
06:38
and it was all the same: no correlation,
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自閉症和疫苗二者之間沒有關聯,
06:40
no connection, none at all.
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毫無聯繫,根本毫不相關
06:42
It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter
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但這個結果對大眾沒多大意義
06:44
because we believe anecdotes,
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因為我們相信小道消息,
06:46
we believe what we see, what we think we see,
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我們相信眼睛看到的、相信心裡所見到的、
06:48
what makes us feel real.
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相信那些讓我們覺得真實的東西
06:50
We don't believe a bunch of documents
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就是不相信一堆化驗資料
06:52
from a government official giving us data,
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不相信來自政府部門的檔案
06:54
and I do understand that, I think we all do.
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而我也理解這一點,我想我們所有人都理解這點
06:56
But you know what?
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可是你知道嗎?
06:58
The result of that has been disastrous.
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這導致了災難性的後果
07:00
Disastrous because here's a fact:
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說它災難,因為這裡有個事實:
07:03
The United States is one of the only countries in the world
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美國是世界上唯一一個
07:05
where the vaccine rate for measles is going down.
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麻疹接種率正在下降的國家
07:08
That is disgraceful,
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這實在令人羞愧
07:10
and we should be ashamed of ourselves.
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我們應該為此感到慚愧
07:12
It's horrible.
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這很可怕
07:14
What kind of a thing happened
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到底發生什麼事
07:16
that we could do that?
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才使我們這麼做?
07:18
Now, I understand it. I do understand it.
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現在,我明白了。真的明白了。
07:21
Because, did anyone have measles here?
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請問這裡有人得過麻疹嗎?
07:23
Has one person in this audience ever seen someone die of measles?
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你們當中,有人看過某人罹患麻疹死去嗎?
07:26
Doesn't happen very much.
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不經常發生吧
07:28
Doesn't happen in this country at all,
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事實上它也不會發生在這個國家
07:30
but it happened 160,000 times in the world last year.
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然而,過去一年裡,有十六萬人罹患麻疹而死去
07:32
That's a lot of death of measles --
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這是一個非常大量的麻疹致死率
07:34
20 an hour.
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基本上,每小時有20人因此死去
07:36
But since it didn't happen here, we can put it out of our minds,
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但因為它不在我們生活周遭,我們可以不管這件事
07:39
and people like Jenny McCarthy
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像 Jenny McCarthy 那樣的人
07:41
can go around preaching messages
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依然能夠在
07:43
of fear and illiteracy from platforms
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歐普拉和賴瑞·金的節目上
07:45
like "Oprah" and "Larry King Live."
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散播恐懼和無知的資訊
07:48
And they can do it because
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他們之所以這麼做
07:50
they don't link causation and correlation.
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是因為,他們沒有把原因與關聯性連結在一起
07:52
They don't understand that these things seem the same,
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他們不瞭解這些看起來似是而非的東西
07:55
but they're almost never the same.
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事實上從來都不是相同的東西
07:57
And it's something we need to learn, and we need to learn it really soon.
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我們必須從中汲取教訓,越早越好
08:00
This guy was a hero, Jonas Salk.
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這位先生是個英雄, Jonas Salk
08:03
He took one of the worst scourges of mankind away from us.
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他發明小兒麻痹的疫苗,使我們避免了最嚴重的禍害
08:06
No fear, no agony. Polio -- puff, gone.
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再也沒有恐懼,再也沒有痛楚,小兒麻痹消失了
08:09
That guy in the middle, not so much.
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中間那個男人就沒那麼風光了 (圖標: 恐怖分子)
08:12
His name is Paul Offit.
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他叫 Paul Offit
08:14
He just developed a rotavirus vaccine with a bunch of other people.
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他與其他一票同仁一起發明了輪狀病毒疫苗
08:16
It'll save the lives of 400 to 500,000 kids
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這疫苗每年可以在發展中國家
08:19
in the developing world every year.
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拯救四億五十萬孩子的生命
08:21
Pretty good, right?
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聽起來是好事,不是嗎?
08:23
Well, it's good, except that Paul goes around talking about vaccines
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確實很好,除了Paul 到處宣傳這一疫苗
08:25
and says how valuable they are
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說它有多好
08:27
and that people ought to just stop the whining.
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並稱人們從此可以告別苦楚
08:29
And he actually says it that way.
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他確實是這麼說的
08:31
So, Paul's a terrorist.
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於是,我們把 Paul 當成恐怖分子
08:34
When Paul speaks in a public hearing,
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當 Paul 公開作證時
08:36
he can't testify without armed guards.
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他身邊必須要有武裝保安
08:38
He gets called at home
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他在家裡會接到恐嚇電話
08:40
because people like to tell him
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因為,有人會跟他說
08:42
that they remember where his kids go to school.
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他們知道他孩子在哪上學
08:44
And why? Because Paul made a vaccine.
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為什麼? 因為 Paul 發明了一種疫苗
08:47
I don't need to say this, but vaccines are essential.
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我本不需要講這個的,但疫苗確實極其重要,
08:50
You take them away, disease comes back,
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一旦停止疫苗注射,疾病又會捲土重來,
08:52
horrible diseases. And that's happening.
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並且是非常可怕的疾病,這樣的事正在發生
08:55
We have measles in this country now.
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現在美國也出現麻疹了
08:57
And it's getting worse, and pretty soon kids
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而且情況越來越糟
08:59
are going to die of it again because it's just a numbers game.
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不久之後,就會有孩子罹患此病而死,因為這只是數字遊戲罷了
09:01
And they're not just going to die of measles.
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不僅僅是麻疹,
09:03
What about polio? Let's have that. Why not?
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還有小兒麻痹症呢! 誰敢說它不會重新出現?
09:05
A college classmate of mine wrote me a couple weeks ago and said
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幾個星期前,我的一位大學同學寫信給我說
09:08
she thought I was a little strident.
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她覺得我現在有點太張揚了
09:10
No one's ever said that before.
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以前沒人這麼說過
09:13
She wasn't going to vaccinate her kid against polio,
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她說她不打算給孩子接種小兒麻痹症疫苗
09:15
no way.
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絕對不會
09:17
Fine.
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好吧
09:19
Why? Because we don't have polio. And you know what?
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為什麼? 因為這個國家沒有小兒麻痹症。但你知道嗎?
09:21
We didn't have polio in this country yesterday.
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昨天,我們沒有這個傳染病
09:24
Today, I don't know, maybe a guy got on a plane in Lagos this morning,
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但今天? 我不知道,也許某人今早從 Lagos 上了飛機
09:27
and he's flying to LAX, right now he's over Ohio.
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飛到洛杉磯機場,現在差不多抵達俄亥俄州
09:29
And he's going to land in a couple of hours, he's going to rent a car,
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幾個小時後,他的飛機就要降落,他會租一輛車
09:32
and he's going to come to Long Beach,
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來到 Long Beach
09:34
and he's going to attend one of these fabulous TED dinners tonight.
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來到這裡參加今晚其中一場超棒的 TED 晚宴
09:37
And he doesn't know that he's infected with a paralytic disease,
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他不知道自己感染了小兒麻痹症
09:40
and we don't either because that's the way the world works.
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我們也不知道,因為這就是世界運作的方式
09:43
That's the planet we live on. Don't pretend it isn't.
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這就是地球運轉的方式。別假裝它不是。
09:46
Now, we love to wrap ourselves in lies. We love to do it.
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如今,我們喜歡相信謊言。我們超愛這麼做
09:49
Everyone take their vitamins this morning?
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你們每個人早上都吃了維他命嗎?
09:51
Echinacea, a little antioxidant
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或者紫錐花? 或是一點的抗氧化劑?
09:53
to get you going.
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吞了那些你才感覺比較清醒
09:55
I know you did because half of Americans do every day.
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你之所以這麼做,是因為每天有半數的美國人也這麼做
09:58
They take the stuff, and they take alternative medicines,
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他們會吃這些東西,也會吃替代藥物
10:01
and it doesn't matter how often
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而且不管我們都已經知道
10:03
we find out that they're useless.
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事實上這些東西是無效的
10:05
The data says it all the time.
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資料是這麼說的
10:07
They darken your urine. They almost never do more than that.
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吃這些只會使得你的尿液顏色變深。除此以外,它們起不了任何作用
10:10
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:12
It's okay, you want to pay 28 billion dollars for dark urine?
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假如你願意花280億美元獲得一些深色尿液,
10:15
I'm totally with you.
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我一點也不反對
10:17
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:19
Dark urine. Dark.
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深色的尿液,深色...
10:22
Why do we do that? Why do we do that?
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我們幹嘛這麼做? 為什麼要做這些?
10:24
Well, I think I understand, we hate Big Pharma.
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嗯,我想我能理解,我們都討厭大藥商
10:26
We hate Big Government. We don't trust the Man.
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我們都討厭大政府,我們不信任這些人
10:28
And we shouldn't: Our health care system sucks.
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而我們也不需要。我們的健保系統很爛
10:31
It's cruel to millions of people.
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對幾百萬人來說,這是一個殘酷的系統
10:33
It's absolutely astonishingly cold
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而對於那些能夠支付起的人們來說
10:36
and soul-bending to those of us who can even afford it.
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這也絕對是一個非常冷酷無情的系統
10:39
So we run away from it, and where do we run?
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於是我們就想辦法逃離。但要逃到哪裡去呢?
10:42
We leap into the arms of Big Placebo.
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我們投入巨大安慰劑的懷抱之中。
10:44
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:47
That's fantastic. I love Big Placebo.
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了不起。我喜歡大安慰劑。
10:49
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
10:54
But, you know, it's really a serious thing
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但你知道,這真是一件嚴重的事
10:57
because this stuff is crap,
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因為這東西是一個爛貨
10:59
and we spend billions of dollars on it.
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但我們卻花了數以億計的美元來購買安慰劑
11:01
And I have all sorts of little props here.
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我也帶來了各種各樣的樣品
11:04
None of it ... ginkgo, fraud;
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它們當中,沒有一樣是有效的,無論是銀杏、
11:06
echinacea, fraud;
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紫錐花、
11:08
acai -- I don't even know what that is
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巴西紫莓...都沒用。我甚至不知道這是什麼,
11:10
but we're spending billions of dollars on it -- it's fraud.
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但我們花數十億美元購買它們,這簡直是詐騙
11:13
And you know what? When I say this stuff, people scream at me,
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但你知道嗎? 當我說到這時,人們對我大吼
11:15
and they say, "What do you care? Let people do what they want to do.
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他們說:「你管他們幹嘛? 讓人們做自己要做的事就好啦,
11:18
It makes them feel good."
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這至少讓他們心裡感到舒服啊。」
11:20
And you know what? You're wrong.
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但你知道嗎? 你錯了。
11:22
Because I don't care
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因為我一點也不在乎
11:24
if it's the secretary of HHS
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假使美國健康與公共事業部部長
11:26
who's saying, "Hmm, I'm not going to take the evidence
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說:「呃,我才不管專家
11:29
of my experts on mammograms,"
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找到的關於乳房X線照片的證據呢,」
11:31
or some cancer quack who wants to treat his patient
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或是一個癌症庸醫想通過
11:34
with coffee enemas.
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咖啡灌腸來醫治他的病人。
11:36
When you start down the road
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假如你相信信仰和魔術
11:38
where belief and magic replace evidence and science,
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而非證據與科學的話,
11:41
you end up in a place you don't want to be.
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你最終只會來到一個你不想去的地方
11:43
You end up in Thabo Mbeki South Africa.
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你最終會來到姆貝基的南非 (Thabo Mbeki: 南非前總統)
11:45
He killed 400,000 of his people
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對於治療愛滋病,他因為堅信
11:48
by insisting that beetroot,
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甜菜、蒜頭、和檸檬油
11:50
garlic and lemon oil
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比我們所知的可延緩愛滋病的
11:52
were much more effective than the antiretroviral drugs
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抗逆轉錄病毒藥物更有效
11:54
we know can slow the course of AIDS.
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而殺死了40萬人
11:56
Hundreds of thousands of needless deaths
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成千上萬的人
11:58
in a country that has been plagued
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因此而死
12:01
worse than any other by this disease.
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那裡剛好又是全球愛滋病最為蔓延的地區
12:03
Please, don't tell me
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請別告訴我
12:05
there are no consequences to these things.
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這些不會產生嚴重後果
12:07
There are. There always are.
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後果是有的 ,終究會有
12:09
Now, the most mindless epidemic
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現在,我們所遇到最無知的傳染病
12:11
we're in the middle of right now
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就是基因轉殖作物
12:13
is this absurd battle
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與有機菁英食品
12:15
between proponents of genetically engineered food
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兩個陣營之間的
12:18
and the organic elite.
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愚蠢對抗
12:20
It's an idiotic debate. It has to stop.
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這也是一個愚蠢的爭論,我們必須停止。
12:22
It's a debate about words, about metaphors.
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因為這個辯論只是針對字眼和隱喻
12:25
It's ideology, it's not science.
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是關於意識形態的爭辯,而不是科學。
12:27
Every single thing we eat, every grain of rice,
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我們吃進肚子裡的每一樣東西,每一顆穀物或飯粒
12:29
every sprig of parsley,
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每一根香菜
12:31
every Brussels sprout
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每一顆球芽甘欖菜
12:33
has been modified by man.
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都曾被人類改變過
12:35
You know, there weren't tangerines in the garden of Eden.
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你知道,在伊甸園裡本來是沒有橘子的、
12:37
There wasn't any cantaloupe. (Laughter)
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沒有哈密瓜、
12:39
There weren't Christmas trees. We made it all.
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更不會有聖誕樹,這些都是人造出來的
12:42
We made it over the last 11,000 years.
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人類在過去一萬一千年裡造出了這些東西
12:45
And some of it worked, and some of it didn't.
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有些實驗成功,有些失敗
12:47
We got rid of the stuff that didn't.
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那些失敗的嘗試就被拋棄
12:49
Now we can do it in a more precise way --
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而現在我們可以以一種更為精確的方式來做實驗
12:51
and there are risks, absolutely --
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這絕對會有風險
12:53
but we can put something like vitamin A into rice,
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但我們可以把維他命A置入水稻裡,
12:56
and that stuff can help millions of people,
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這會幫助數百萬人
12:59
millions of people, prolong their lives.
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延長他們的壽命
13:02
You don't want to do that?
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你不願做這件事嗎?
13:04
I have to say, I don't understand it.
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我必須說,我實在搞不懂。
13:07
We object to genetically engineered food.
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我們反對基因作物
13:09
Why do we do that?
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為什麼?
13:11
Well, the things I constantly hear are:
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嗯,我經常聽到的理由是:
13:13
Too many chemicals,
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含有太多化學成分、
13:15
pesticides, hormones,
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太多農藥、荷爾蒙、
13:17
monoculture, we don't want giant fields
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單一作物、我們不要巨大單一的農田
13:19
of the same thing, that's wrong.
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確實,那樣不好
13:21
We don't companies patenting life.
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我們不想讓大公司申請作物專利
13:23
We don't want companies owning seeds.
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我們也不想讓大公司壟斷種子
13:25
And you know what my response to all of that is?
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你知道我對所有這些意見的回應是什麽嗎?
13:27
Yes, you're right. Let's fix it.
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對,猜對了,我們一起來解決這些問題
13:30
It's true, we've got a huge food problem,
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的確,我們遇到一個非常嚴重的食物問題,
13:32
but this isn't science.
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但這不是科學,
13:34
This has nothing to do with science.
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這與科學無關
13:36
It's law, it's morality, it's patent stuff.
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這是法律、倫理、專利法的問題
13:39
You know science isn't a company.
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要知道,科學並非一家公司,
13:41
It's not a country.
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也不是一個國家,
13:43
It's not even an idea; it's a process.
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甚至不是一個想法,它是一個過程
13:46
It's a process, and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't,
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這過程有時成功,有時失敗,
13:49
but the idea that we should not allow
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但由於我們畏懼
13:52
science to do its job
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而認為我們不該讓科學家
13:54
because we're afraid,
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去做深入研究工作的這個想法
13:56
is really very deadening,
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是非常可怕的,
13:58
and it's preventing millions of people
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這也會阻礙數百萬人
14:00
from prospering.
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走向繁榮
14:02
You know, in the next 50 years
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你知道嗎? 未來的五十年
14:04
we're going to have to grow 70 percent more food than we do right now,
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我們需要比現在種植
14:07
70 percent.
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70%更多的糧食
14:09
This investment in Africa over the last 30 years.
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這是過去三十年在非洲的農業投資總額
14:12
Disgraceful. Disgraceful.
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令人慚愧,令人慚愧
14:14
They need it, and we're not giving it to them.
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他們需要,我們卻偏偏不給
14:16
And why? Genetically engineered food.
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為什麼? 因為那是基因食物
14:19
We don't want to encourage people
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我們不鼓勵人們去
14:21
to eat that rotten stuff, like cassava for instance.
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吃腐爛的食物,比如,壞掉的木薯
14:24
Cassava's something that half a billion people eat.
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世界上有五千萬人是靠吃木薯為生的
14:26
It's kind of like a potato.
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那是一種類似馬鈴薯的作物
14:28
It's just a bunch of calories. It sucks.
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就只有一堆卡路里,非常難吃
14:30
It doesn't have nutrients, it doesn't have protein,
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沒有營養,也沒有蛋白質,
14:32
and scientists are engineering
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而現在,有科學家正嘗試
14:34
all of that into it right now.
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把這些營養素加到木薯裡
14:36
And then people would be able to eat it and they'd be able to not go blind.
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吃到這些改良木薯的人就以避免失明
14:39
They wouldn't starve, and you know what?
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也不再挨餓。你知道嗎?
14:41
That would be nice. It wouldn't be Chez Panisse,
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這是好事。雖然比不上 Chez Panisse (高檔餐廳)
14:44
but it would be nice.
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但也是好事一樁
14:48
And all I can say about this is:
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我只能說,
14:50
Why are we fighting it?
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為什麼我們要反對呢?
14:52
I mean, let's ask ourselves: Why are we fighting it?
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請大家問問自己: 我們為何要反對?
14:54
Because we don't want to move genes around?
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因為我們不想移動基因組嗎?
14:56
This is about moving genes around. It's not about chemicals.
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這只是移動一些基因組罷了,不是添加化學物質
14:59
It's not about our ridiculous passion for hormones,
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跟我們荒謬熱愛的荷爾蒙也毫無瓜葛
15:02
our insistence on having bigger food,
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我們總是要求獲得更大的食物、
15:04
better food, singular food.
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更好的食物、更專一的食物
15:06
This isn't about Rice Krispies,
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這和 Rice Krispies (棉花糖米香) 無關,
15:08
this is about keeping people alive,
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而是試著讓人活下來
15:10
and it's about time we started to understand what that meant.
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現在是我們認真理解這件事的時刻了
15:13
Because, you know something?
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因為,你知道嗎?
15:15
If we don't, if we continue to act the way we're acting,
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假如我們不這麼做,而是堅持現在的做法,
15:18
we're guilty of something that I don't think we want to be guilty of:
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我們未來將會因為一些我們不希望發生的事情而感到負罪感
15:21
high-tech colonialism.
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高科技殖民主義
15:23
There's no other way to describe what's going on here.
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沒有其他別的詞語更合適於描述這一狀況了
15:25
It's selfish, it's ugly,
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這是自私的、骯髒的
15:27
it's beneath us,
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使我們變得卑劣
15:29
and we really have to stop it.
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我們必須停止這麼做
15:32
So after this amazingly fun conversation,
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好了,在這麼一場超級有趣的對話之後,
15:35
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
15:37
you might want to say, "So, you still want to get in this
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你也許會說:「你還想走進這臺荒謬的時間機器,
15:39
ridiculous time machine and go forward?"
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駛入未來嗎?」
15:41
Absolutely. Absolutely, I do.
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那當然,我絕對會那麼做。
15:44
It's stuck in the present right now,
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這機器現在停在當下,
15:46
but we have an amazing opportunity.
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但我們遇到非常好的機會
15:48
We can set that time machine on anything we want.
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我們可以按自己的意願設置時間機器
15:51
We can move it where we want to move it,
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想去哪就去哪
15:53
and we're going to move it where we want to move it.
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我們可以抵達我們真正要去的地方
15:55
We have to have these conversations and we have to think,
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我們需要開展對話,我們需要思考,
15:58
but when we get in the time machine and we go ahead,
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當我們進入時間機器,並且走向未來時,
16:01
we're going to be happy we do.
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我們會為我們的選擇感到高興,
16:03
I know that we can,
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我相信我們可以,
16:05
and as far as I'm concerned,
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而就我的理解,
16:07
that's something the world needs right now.
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這就是現在世界所需要的東西。
16:10
(Applause)
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謝謝大家
16:12
Thank you.
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(掌聲)
16:15
Thank you.
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謝謝
16:17
Thank you. Thank you.
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(掌聲)
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