The danger of science denial | Michael Specter

462,933 views ・ 2010-04-12

TED


请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。

翻译人员: Tony Yet 校对人员: Angelia King
00:15
Let's pretend right here we have a machine.
0
15260
3000
让我们设想这里有一台机器,
00:18
A big machine, a cool, TED-ish machine,
1
18260
2000
它是一个很大的,很酷的,很TED的机器,
00:20
and it's a time machine.
2
20260
2000
它是一个时间机器。
00:22
And everyone in this room has to get into it.
3
22260
2000
这里每个人都要走进这个时间机器。
00:24
And you can go backwards, you can go forwards;
4
24260
2000
你可以选择返回过去或走到未来,
00:26
you cannot stay where you are.
5
26260
2000
就是不能停在当下。
00:28
And I wonder what you'd choose, because I've been asking my friends
6
28260
2000
我在想你们会怎么选,近来我问了我的朋友很多次这个问题,
00:30
this question a lot lately and they all want to go back.
7
30260
3000
他们的回答都是“回到过去”。
00:33
I don't know. They want to go back before there were automobiles
8
33260
2000
我不理解。他们说,要回到没有汽车、
00:35
or Twitter or "American Idol."
9
35260
2000
没有twitter或《美国偶像》的年代。
00:37
I don't know.
10
37260
2000
我真的不理解。
00:39
I'm convinced that there's some sort of pull
11
39260
2000
我敢肯定,这里必然是有一些怀旧的情愫
00:41
to nostalgia, to wishful thinking.
12
41260
2000
或者是痴心妄想。
00:43
And I understand that.
13
43260
2000
这我也能理解。
00:45
I'm not part of that crowd, I have to say.
14
45260
3000
但是我必须承认,我跟他们不是一伙的。
00:48
I don't want to go back, and it's not because I'm adventurous.
15
48260
2000
我不想回到过去,不是因为我喜欢冒险,
00:50
It's because possibilities on this planet,
16
50260
2000
而是因为这个地球上的可能性,
00:52
they don't go back, they go forward.
17
52260
2000
不是走到过去可以获得的,你要走到未来。
00:54
So I want to get in the machine, and I want to go forward.
18
54260
3000
也就是说,我想走进这个机器,走到未来。
00:57
This is the greatest time there's ever been on this planet
19
57260
3000
我们这个时代是最美好的时代,
01:00
by any measure that you wish to choose:
20
60260
2000
不管你用何种方式来衡量,如:
01:02
health, wealth,
21
62260
2000
健康、财富、
01:04
mobility, opportunity,
22
64260
2000
流动性、机遇、
01:06
declining rates of disease ...
23
66260
2000
患病率不断下降。
01:08
There's never been a time like this.
24
68260
2000
从来没有过这么好的时代。
01:10
My great-grandparents died, all of them,
25
70260
2000
我的曾祖父母
01:12
by the time they were 60.
26
72260
2000
在60岁的时候就死去了。
01:14
My grandparents pushed that number to 70.
27
74260
2000
我的祖父母70多岁就死了。
01:16
My parents are closing in on 80.
28
76260
2000
我的父母过世时是80几岁。
01:18
So there better be
29
78260
3000
我希望我死去的时候
01:21
a nine at the beginning of my death number.
30
81260
3000
是在一个9数字开头的时候。
01:24
But it's not even about people like us,
31
84260
2000
但这不仅仅是关乎我们这些人的事情,
01:26
because this is a bigger deal than that.
32
86260
3000
因为事实比我们自身大得多。
01:29
A kid born in New Delhi today
33
89260
2000
今天在新德里出生的一个小孩
01:31
can expect to live as long as
34
91260
2000
可以像100年前世界上最富的人
01:33
the richest man in the world did 100 years ago.
35
93260
2000
一样长寿命。
01:35
Think about that, it's an incredible fact.
36
95260
2000
大家认真想想。这是个很了不起的事实啊。
01:37
And why is it true?
37
97260
2000
为什么会出现这样的事实呢?
01:39
Smallpox. Smallpox killed billions
38
99260
2000
是因为我们消灭了天花。
01:41
of people on this planet.
39
101260
2000
天花曾夺去了地球上数以亿计的人的生命。
01:43
It reshaped the demography of the globe
40
103260
2000
它重塑了地球的人口布局,
01:45
in a way that no war ever has.
41
105260
2000
这是任何战争也无法相比的。
01:47
It's gone. It's vanished.
42
107260
2000
但今天它已被彻底消灭了。
01:49
We vanquished it. Puff.
43
109260
2000
是人类铲除了它。
01:51
In the rich world,
44
111260
2000
在当今的富有社会里
01:53
diseases that threatened millions of us just a generation ago
45
113260
3000
仅仅一代人之前还给数百万人的生命带来威胁的疾病已经
01:56
no longer exist, hardly.
46
116260
2000
几乎不再出现了。
01:58
Diphtheria, rubella, polio ...
47
118260
2000
白喉, 德国麻疹,小儿麻痹症都几乎不存在了。
02:00
does anyone even know what those things are?
48
120260
3000
你们知道这些名字是什么意思吗?
02:03
Vaccines, modern medicine,
49
123260
3000
疫苗和现代医学
02:06
our ability to feed billions of people,
50
126260
2000
以及人类为数百万人提供食品的能力,
02:08
those are triumphs of the scientific method.
51
128260
2000
这些都是科学方法的胜利。
02:10
And to my mind, the scientific method --
52
130260
2000
在我看来,科学方法
02:12
trying stuff out,
53
132260
2000
就是不断的尝试,
02:14
seeing if it works, changing it when it doesn't --
54
134260
3000
检验,改变的过程。
02:17
is one of the great accomplishments of humanity.
55
137260
2000
它本身也是人类最伟大的功绩之一。
02:19
So that's the good news.
56
139260
2000
所以这些都是好消息。
02:21
Unfortunately, that's all the good news
57
141260
2000
但不幸的是,好消息就这么多,
02:23
because there are some other problems, and they've been mentioned many times.
58
143260
3000
因为我们还遇到了其他一些难题,也被提到过很多次。
02:26
And one of them is that
59
146260
2000
其中一个就是,
02:28
despite all our accomplishments,
60
148260
2000
虽然我们取得了巨大的进步,
02:30
a billion people go to bed hungry
61
150260
2000
但是现在世界上还有10亿人吃不饱肚子,
02:32
in this world every day.
62
152260
2000
每天,他们都在忍受饥饿的折磨。
02:34
That number's rising, and it's rising really rapidly, and it's disgraceful.
63
154260
3000
这一数字还在上升,并且上升的速度很快。这是足以让我们丢脸的。
02:37
And not only that, we've used our imagination
64
157260
3000
不仅如此,人类的想象力
02:40
to thoroughly trash this globe.
65
160260
2000
还给地球带来了巨大的垃圾。
02:42
Potable water, arable land,
66
162260
2000
饮用水、可耕地、
02:44
rainforests, oil, gas:
67
164260
2000
热带雨林、石油、天然气,
02:46
they're going away, and they're going away soon,
68
166260
3000
这些资源都在消失,并且消失的速度也很快。
02:49
and unless we innovate our way out of this mess,
69
169260
3000
除非我们懂得去创新,
02:52
we're going away too.
70
172260
2000
否则我们就没有任何希望了。
02:54
So the question is: Can we do that? And I think we can.
71
174260
3000
问题是:我们做得到吗?我想我们可以做到。
02:57
I think it's clear that we can make food
72
177260
2000
我认为我们可以生产出足以养活数十亿人的粮食,
02:59
that will feed billions of people without raping the land that they live on.
73
179260
3000
而不会损害他们赖以生存的土地。
03:02
I think we can power this world with energy
74
182260
2000
我认为我们可以找到环境友好的能源
03:04
that doesn't also destroy it.
75
184260
2000
来供给世界能量。
03:06
I really do believe that, and, no, it ain't wishful thinking.
76
186260
3000
我确实是深信这样的理论的,这绝对不是臆想。
03:09
But here's the thing that keeps me up at night --
77
189260
3000
但我总是遇到让我晚上睡不着觉的事情。
03:12
one of the things that keeps me up at night:
78
192260
3000
这是其中一个让我晚上睡不着的事情。
03:16
We've never needed progress in science more than we need it right now. Never.
79
196260
3000
人类历史上从来没有象今天这样急需科技的进步
03:19
And we've also never been in a position
80
199260
2000
而历史上我们也从未有过像今天这样的时机,
03:21
to deploy it properly in the way that we can today.
81
201260
2000
我们可以按照我们的意愿去使用这些科技。
03:23
We're on the verge of amazing, amazing events
82
203260
3000
在许多领域,我们都站在了惊人发现的
03:26
in many fields,
83
206260
2000
时代。
03:28
and yet I actually think we'd have to go back
84
208260
2000
事实上,我认为我们需要往回看,
03:30
hundreds, 300 years, before the Enlightenment,
85
210260
3000
回到300年前,回到文艺复兴之前的年代,
03:33
to find a time when we battled progress,
86
213260
3000
只有在那个年代,才有人要抵抗进步,
03:36
when we fought about these things
87
216260
2000
才会有人比我们今天更加
03:38
more vigorously, on more fronts, than we do now.
88
218260
3000
猛烈的去反抗科技的进步。
03:41
People wrap themselves in their beliefs,
89
221260
2000
人们总是喜欢把自己放在自己的理念框架里,
03:43
and they do it so tightly that you can't set them free.
90
223260
3000
他们把自己包得那么死,往往无法脱身。
03:46
Not even the truth will set them free.
91
226260
2000
即使是听到了真理也不能使他们产生动摇。
03:48
And, listen, everyone's entitled to their opinion;
92
228260
3000
听着,每个人都可以坚持他的观点,
03:51
they're even entitled to their opinion about progress.
93
231260
2000
他们甚至可以坚持他们关于进步的观点,
03:53
But you know what you're not entitled to?
94
233260
2000
但你知道你不能坚持什么吗?
03:55
You're not entitled to your own facts. Sorry, you're not.
95
235260
3000
你不能只坚持你自己所知道的事实。真的,你不能。
03:58
And this took me awhile to figure out.
96
238260
2000
我也是花了一段时间才领悟出来的
04:00
About a decade ago, I wrote a story about vaccines
97
240260
2000
大约十年前,我给《纽约客》写了一个故事
04:02
for The New Yorker. A little story.
98
242260
2000
一个关于疫苗小故事。
04:04
And I was amazed to find opposition:
99
244260
2000
但我发现竟然有那么多人要反对我
04:06
opposition to what is, after all,
100
246260
3000
他们反对的是
04:09
the most effective public health measure in human history.
101
249260
3000
人类历史上最有效的公共卫生预防措施。
04:12
I didn't know what to do,
102
252260
2000
我真的不知该怎么做,
04:14
so I just did what I do: I wrote a story and I moved on.
103
254260
3000
我就只做自己该做的。故事写完,我就做别的事。
04:17
And soon after that,
104
257260
3000
不久之后,
04:20
I wrote a story about genetically engineered food.
105
260260
2000
我写了一个关于转基因食物的文章。
04:22
Same thing, only bigger.
106
262260
2000
又是收到了大量的反对,声浪大于上一次。
04:24
People were going crazy.
107
264260
2000
人们简直是发疯了。
04:26
So I wrote a story about that too,
108
266260
2000
于是我也就此写了一个文章,
04:28
and I couldn't understand why
109
268260
2000
我真的不能理解为何人们会把这理解为
04:30
people thought this was "Frankenfoods,"
110
270260
2000
“恶魔食物”,
04:32
why they thought moving molecules around
111
272260
2000
我不理解,为何人们会认为按照特定的方式
04:34
in a specific, rather than a haphazard way,
112
274260
3000
而非任意的方式,来搬运生物分子
04:37
was trespassing on nature's ground.
113
277260
3000
是在玩弄自然。
04:40
But, you know, I do what I do. I wrote the story, I moved on.
114
280260
2000
不过我还是只做我该做的。故事写完后,我就不管它了。
04:42
I mean, I'm a journalist.
115
282260
2000
我是个记者,
04:44
We type, we file, we go to dinner. It's fine.
116
284260
3000
我们的工作就是写文章,发表,吃饭,这就是我们的生活。
04:47
(Laughter)
117
287260
2000
(笑声)
04:50
But these stories bothered me,
118
290260
2000
但是这些见闻还是让我心里感到不舒服,
04:52
and I couldn't figure out why, and eventually I did.
119
292260
2000
我也不知道是什么原因,直到后来我才知道。
04:54
And that's because those fanatics that were driving me crazy
120
294260
3000
那些曾经把我逼疯的狂热分子
04:57
weren't actually fanatics at all.
121
297260
2000
事实上并非狂热分子
04:59
They were thoughtful people, educated people, decent people.
122
299260
3000
他们都是有想法的人,受过良好教育的人,正直的公民。
05:02
They were exactly like the people in this room.
123
302260
3000
他们就像这个房间里的人们。
05:06
And it just disturbed me so much.
124
306260
2000
这确实让我十分头疼,
05:08
But then I thought, you know, let's be honest.
125
308260
3000
后来我想,说实话:
05:11
We're at a point in this world
126
311260
2000
我们今天的时代对于进步的关系
05:13
where we don't have the same relationship to progress that we used to.
127
313260
3000
已经不同于往日了。
05:16
We talk about it ambivalently.
128
316260
2000
我们现在是以一种很疑惑的眼光来看待进步。
05:18
We talk about it in ironic terms with little quotes around it:
129
318260
2000
我们会以讽刺的口吻来谈论进步
05:20
"progress."
130
320260
2000
并且会加上引号:“进步”。
05:23
Okay, there are reasons for that, and I think we know what those reasons are.
131
323260
3000
我想是有原因的,我们也知道是什么原因。
05:26
We've lost faith in institutions,
132
326260
2000
我们对于民间机构,
05:28
in authority,
133
328260
2000
对政府,
05:30
and sometimes in science itself,
134
330260
2000
有时甚至是对科学,已经失去了信任,
05:32
and there's no reason we shouldn't have.
135
332260
2000
也许我们确实有不信任的理由。
05:34
You can just say a few names
136
334260
2000
讲出几个名字你就知道
05:36
and people will understand.
137
336260
2000
是什么原因了。
05:38
Chernobyl, Bhopal, the Challenger,
138
338260
3000
切尔诺贝利,博帕尔,挑战者号,
05:41
Vioxx, weapons of mass destruction,
139
341260
3000
还有Vioxx抗关节炎药, 大规模杀伤性武器,
05:44
hanging chads.
140
344260
2000
半打出的选票。
05:46
You know, you can choose your list.
141
346260
3000
我想大家可以在自己心中把这样一个清单列出来。
05:49
There are questions and problems
142
349260
2000
我们过去完全信任的永远是对的,
05:51
with the people we used to believe were always right,
143
351260
2000
现在都出问题了。
05:53
so be skeptical.
144
353260
2000
所以大家还是应当要有一点怀疑的态度。
05:56
Ask questions, demand proof, demand evidence.
145
356260
3000
要问几个问题,要索求证明和证据。
05:59
Don't take anything for granted.
146
359260
2000
凡事千万不能信以为真。
06:01
But here's the thing: When you get proof,
147
361260
3000
但有一点需要注意,当你获得证据的时候,
06:04
you need to accept the proof, and we're not that good at doing that.
148
364260
3000
你需要接受那样的证据,但我们并不善于这么做。
06:07
And the reason that I can say that is because
149
367260
2000
原因,我认为是
06:09
we're now in an epidemic of fear
150
369260
2000
我们现在都得了恐惧的传染病,
06:11
like one I've never seen and hope never to see again.
151
371260
3000
这样一种传染病之广度和深度是我从未经历的,更希望以后不会再次出现。
06:14
About 12 years ago, there was a story published,
152
374260
2000
12年前,媒体暴光了一则消息,
06:16
a horrible story,
153
376260
2000
那是一个非常可怕的消息,
06:18
that linked the epidemic of autism
154
378260
3000
它将自闭症
06:21
to the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine shot.
155
381260
3000
与接受麻疹、腮腺炎和风疹疫苗注射关联在一起。
06:24
Very scary.
156
384260
2000
确实很可怕。
06:26
Tons of studies were done to see if this was true.
157
386260
3000
于是有大量的研究围绕这一事件而展开。
06:29
Tons of studies should have been done; it's a serious issue.
158
389260
3000
确实有必要做这些研究,因为那确实是一个严重的事件。
06:32
The data came back.
159
392260
2000
最后数据出来了。
06:34
The data came back from the United States, from England,
160
394260
2000
来自美国、英国
06:36
from Sweden, from Canada,
161
396260
2000
瑞典、加拿大的数据验证了
06:38
and it was all the same: no correlation,
162
398260
2000
同样的结论,即自闭症和疫苗二者之间没有关联,
06:40
no connection, none at all.
163
400260
2000
没有任何联系,根本没有联系。
06:42
It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter
164
402260
2000
但这个结果对于大众而言没有太大意义。
06:44
because we believe anecdotes,
165
404260
2000
因为我们喜欢听小故事,
06:46
we believe what we see, what we think we see,
166
406260
2000
我们会相信我们眼睛看到的,相信我们内心认为我们看到的
06:48
what makes us feel real.
167
408260
2000
相信那些让我们觉得真实的事情。
06:50
We don't believe a bunch of documents
168
410260
2000
但就是不相信一堆的化验文件,
06:52
from a government official giving us data,
169
412260
2000
不相信来自政府部门的数据,
06:54
and I do understand that, I think we all do.
170
414260
2000
我也能理解这一点,我想我们所有人都有这样的心理。
06:56
But you know what?
171
416260
2000
但后果如何呢?
06:58
The result of that has been disastrous.
172
418260
2000
后果令人不堪设想,
07:00
Disastrous because here's a fact:
173
420260
3000
请听这个事实:
07:03
The United States is one of the only countries in the world
174
423260
2000
美国是世界上唯一一个
07:05
where the vaccine rate for measles is going down.
175
425260
3000
麻疹接种比例在下降的国家。
07:08
That is disgraceful,
176
428260
2000
这足以让我们感到羞辱,
07:10
and we should be ashamed of ourselves.
177
430260
2000
我们应当为此感到惭愧。
07:12
It's horrible.
178
432260
2000
这是很可怕的事情。
07:14
What kind of a thing happened
179
434260
2000
到底是因为什么
07:16
that we could do that?
180
436260
2000
才使得这样的事情发生?
07:18
Now, I understand it. I do understand it.
181
438260
3000
现在我明白了。真的明白了。
07:21
Because, did anyone have measles here?
182
441260
2000
请问这里有人得过麻疹吗?
07:23
Has one person in this audience ever seen someone die of measles?
183
443260
3000
你们当中有人看到别人因为患上了麻疹而死亡吗?
07:26
Doesn't happen very much.
184
446260
2000
不多、不多。
07:28
Doesn't happen in this country at all,
185
448260
2000
事实上它也不会发生在这个国家,
07:30
but it happened 160,000 times in the world last year.
186
450260
2000
但是,过去一年里,有16万人因为患有麻疹而死去。
07:32
That's a lot of death of measles --
187
452260
2000
这个数字是巨大的,
07:34
20 an hour.
188
454260
2000
基本是每个小时有20人因此而死去。
07:36
But since it didn't happen here, we can put it out of our minds,
189
456260
3000
但是因为它不是发生在我们身边,我们可以不管这事情,
07:39
and people like Jenny McCarthy
190
459260
2000
像Jenny McCarthy那样的人
07:41
can go around preaching messages
191
461260
2000
则依然能够在
07:43
of fear and illiteracy from platforms
192
463260
2000
奥普拉和拉里金的节目上
07:45
like "Oprah" and "Larry King Live."
193
465260
3000
传播他们的畏惧和无知信息。
07:48
And they can do it because
194
468260
2000
他们之所以这么做
07:50
they don't link causation and correlation.
195
470260
2000
是因为他们没有把原因与关联放在一起看。
07:52
They don't understand that these things seem the same,
196
472260
3000
他们也不知道,那些看上去一样的东西
07:55
but they're almost never the same.
197
475260
2000
事实上从来都不是一样的。
07:57
And it's something we need to learn, and we need to learn it really soon.
198
477260
3000
我们需要从中汲取经验教训,并且越早越好。
08:00
This guy was a hero, Jonas Salk.
199
480260
3000
这位叫Jonas Salk的男士是一个英雄。
08:03
He took one of the worst scourges of mankind away from us.
200
483260
3000
因为他发明了小儿麻痹症的疫苗使得人们避免了这最严重的灾难。
08:06
No fear, no agony. Polio -- puff, gone.
201
486260
3000
现在人们不需要去畏惧患上这一疾病了,也不会有患病带来的痛楚,小儿麻痹症消失了。
08:09
That guy in the middle, not so much.
202
489260
3000
中间那个男人就不是那么风光了。
08:12
His name is Paul Offit.
203
492260
2000
他叫Paul Offit。
08:14
He just developed a rotavirus vaccine with a bunch of other people.
204
494260
2000
他与其他几位研究者一道发明了轮状病毒疫苗。
08:16
It'll save the lives of 400 to 500,000 kids
205
496260
3000
这一疫苗每一年可以拯救发展中国家
08:19
in the developing world every year.
206
499260
2000
4亿50万孩子的生命。
08:21
Pretty good, right?
207
501260
2000
应当是好事,不是吗?
08:23
Well, it's good, except that Paul goes around talking about vaccines
208
503260
2000
确实是很好。这是Paul会四处跟人们讲这一疫苗,
08:25
and says how valuable they are
209
505260
2000
说它们有多好,
08:27
and that people ought to just stop the whining.
210
507260
2000
并称人们从此可以告别苦楚。
08:29
And he actually says it that way.
211
509260
2000
他确实是这么说的。
08:31
So, Paul's a terrorist.
212
511260
3000
因此,我们把Paul当成是恐怖主义分子。
08:34
When Paul speaks in a public hearing,
213
514260
2000
当Paul要公开作证的时候,
08:36
he can't testify without armed guards.
214
516260
2000
他身边必须要有武装保安。
08:38
He gets called at home
215
518260
2000
他在家里会接到恐吓电话
08:40
because people like to tell him
216
520260
2000
因为人们会跟他说
08:42
that they remember where his kids go to school.
217
522260
2000
他们知道他孩子在哪里上学。
08:44
And why? Because Paul made a vaccine.
218
524260
3000
为什么?因为Paul发明了一种疫苗。
08:47
I don't need to say this, but vaccines are essential.
219
527260
3000
我本不需要讲这个的,但疫苗确实是极其重要的。
08:50
You take them away, disease comes back,
220
530260
2000
一旦停止疫苗注射,疾病又会卷土重来,
08:52
horrible diseases. And that's happening.
221
532260
3000
并且是非常可怕的疾病,这样的事情正在发生。
08:55
We have measles in this country now.
222
535260
2000
现在美国也出现麻疹了。
08:57
And it's getting worse, and pretty soon kids
223
537260
2000
并且情况变得越来越糟糕,
08:59
are going to die of it again because it's just a numbers game.
224
539260
2000
不久,就会有孩子因为患上这个病而死,这只是一个数字问题。
09:01
And they're not just going to die of measles.
225
541260
2000
不仅仅是麻疹呢。
09:03
What about polio? Let's have that. Why not?
226
543260
2000
还有小儿麻痹症,谁敢说它不会重新出现?
09:05
A college classmate of mine wrote me a couple weeks ago and said
227
545260
3000
我的一位大学同学几周前给我写了一封信,
09:08
she thought I was a little strident.
228
548260
2000
她说我现在有点太过张扬了。
09:10
No one's ever said that before.
229
550260
3000
之前从来没有人这么说的。
09:13
She wasn't going to vaccinate her kid against polio,
230
553260
2000
她说她不打算给孩子接种小儿麻痹症疫苗。
09:15
no way.
231
555260
2000
肯定不会。
09:17
Fine.
232
557260
2000
好吧。
09:19
Why? Because we don't have polio. And you know what?
233
559260
2000
为什么?因为这个国家没有小儿麻痹症。但你知道吗?
09:21
We didn't have polio in this country yesterday.
234
561260
3000
我们昨天没有这个传染病。
09:24
Today, I don't know, maybe a guy got on a plane in Lagos this morning,
235
564260
3000
今天,我不知道,也许一位嘉宾从拉各斯上飞机,
09:27
and he's flying to LAX, right now he's over Ohio.
236
567260
2000
他的目的地是洛杉矶机场,现在已经到了俄亥俄州。
09:29
And he's going to land in a couple of hours, he's going to rent a car,
237
569260
3000
几个小时之后他就要到达地面,他会打车
09:32
and he's going to come to Long Beach,
238
572260
2000
来到长滩市,
09:34
and he's going to attend one of these fabulous TED dinners tonight.
239
574260
3000
来到这里参加其中一场TED晚宴。
09:37
And he doesn't know that he's infected with a paralytic disease,
240
577260
3000
他不知道自己是感染了小儿麻痹症,
09:40
and we don't either because that's the way the world works.
241
580260
3000
我们也不知道,这就是世界的事实。
09:43
That's the planet we live on. Don't pretend it isn't.
242
583260
3000
我们地球的事实就是这样的。不要以为不是。
09:46
Now, we love to wrap ourselves in lies. We love to do it.
243
586260
3000
我们喜欢相信谎言。我们都很喜欢这么做。
09:49
Everyone take their vitamins this morning?
244
589260
2000
你们每个人早上都吃了维他命片吗?
09:51
Echinacea, a little antioxidant
245
591260
2000
或者紫锥花,或者一点的抗氧化剂,
09:53
to get you going.
246
593260
2000
只有吃过那些你才感觉比较清醒。
09:55
I know you did because half of Americans do every day.
247
595260
3000
你之所以这么做,是因为每天有半数的美国人也这么做。
09:58
They take the stuff, and they take alternative medicines,
248
598260
3000
他们会吃这东西,,也会吃替代药物,
10:01
and it doesn't matter how often
249
601260
2000
尽管我们已经知道
10:03
we find out that they're useless.
250
603260
2000
这些东西实际上是无效的。
10:05
The data says it all the time.
251
605260
2000
数据就是这么说的。
10:07
They darken your urine. They almost never do more than that.
252
607260
3000
吃这些只会使得你的尿液变黑。除此以外,它们不起任何作用。
10:10
(Laughter)
253
610260
2000
(笑声)
10:12
It's okay, you want to pay 28 billion dollars for dark urine?
254
612260
3000
假如你愿意花280亿美元来获得一些黑色的尿液,
10:15
I'm totally with you.
255
615260
2000
我也没有反对。
10:17
(Laughter)
256
617260
2000
(笑声)
10:19
Dark urine. Dark.
257
619260
3000
是黑色的尿液,黑色的哦。
10:22
Why do we do that? Why do we do that?
258
622260
2000
为什么要这么做呢?为什么?
10:24
Well, I think I understand, we hate Big Pharma.
259
624260
2000
我想我也许能理解。我们这个国家药品行业非常庞大。
10:26
We hate Big Government. We don't trust the Man.
260
626260
2000
而我们都讨厌大政府,因为我们对那里面的人不信任。
10:28
And we shouldn't: Our health care system sucks.
261
628260
3000
但我们不一定要这么做。我们的医保体制很烂。
10:31
It's cruel to millions of people.
262
631260
2000
对于数百万的国民来讲,那是一个残酷体制
10:33
It's absolutely astonishingly cold
263
633260
3000
而对于那些能够支付起的人们来说
10:36
and soul-bending to those of us who can even afford it.
264
636260
3000
这也绝对是非常冷酷和无情的一种医疗体制。
10:39
So we run away from it, and where do we run?
265
639260
3000
于是我们就想办法逃离这样体制。逃到哪里去呢?
10:42
We leap into the arms of Big Placebo.
266
642260
2000
我们投入了安慰剂的巨大怀抱。
10:44
(Laughter)
267
644260
3000
(笑声)
10:47
That's fantastic. I love Big Placebo.
268
647260
2000
这个很精彩哦,我很喜欢安慰剂。
10:49
(Applause)
269
649260
5000
(掌声)
10:54
But, you know, it's really a serious thing
270
654260
3000
但是你要知道,这的确是个严重的事情
10:57
because this stuff is crap,
271
657260
2000
缘于这东西是一个破烂货,
10:59
and we spend billions of dollars on it.
272
659260
2000
但我们却花了数以亿计的银子来购买安慰剂。
11:01
And I have all sorts of little props here.
273
661260
3000
我这里带来了各种各样的样品。
11:04
None of it ... ginkgo, fraud;
274
664260
2000
它们当中没有一样是有效,不管是银杏果,
11:06
echinacea, fraud;
275
666260
2000
紫锥花,
11:08
acai -- I don't even know what that is
276
668260
2000
阿薩伊果,都是幌子。我甚至不知道这是什么,
11:10
but we're spending billions of dollars on it -- it's fraud.
277
670260
3000
但是我们就花了数十亿银子来购买它们,这是欺骗。
11:13
And you know what? When I say this stuff, people scream at me,
278
673260
2000
但你知道吗?当我说到这里的时候,人们会对我尖叫。
11:15
and they say, "What do you care? Let people do what they want to do.
279
675260
3000
他们会说,“你管什么闲事!让人们自己去做选择就行啦!
11:18
It makes them feel good."
280
678260
2000
吃安慰剂至少使人们内心感到舒服些啊!"
11:20
And you know what? You're wrong.
281
680260
2000
你晓得吗?你们错了。
11:22
Because I don't care
282
682260
2000
我是不会放在心里的。
11:24
if it's the secretary of HHS
283
684260
2000
假如美国健康与公共事业部部长
11:26
who's saying, "Hmm, I'm not going to take the evidence
284
686260
3000
说,“我才不管专家
11:29
of my experts on mammograms,"
285
689260
2000
所找到的关于乳房X线照片的证据呢"
11:31
or some cancer quack who wants to treat his patient
286
691260
3000
或者是一个癌症庸医想通过
11:34
with coffee enemas.
287
694260
2000
咖啡灌肠来医治他的病人。
11:36
When you start down the road
288
696260
2000
假如你相信信念和魔术
11:38
where belief and magic replace evidence and science,
289
698260
3000
而非证据与科学的话,
11:41
you end up in a place you don't want to be.
290
701260
2000
你最终只会去到一个你不想去到的地方。
11:43
You end up in Thabo Mbeki South Africa.
291
703260
2000
也许你最终会成为南非前领导人姆贝基。
11:45
He killed 400,000 of his people
292
705260
3000
他坚持相信
11:48
by insisting that beetroot,
293
708260
2000
甜菜根蒜和柠檬油
11:50
garlic and lemon oil
294
710260
2000
比起我们所知可延缓艾滋病的抗逆转录病毒药物对于治疗艾滋病
11:52
were much more effective than the antiretroviral drugs
295
712260
2000
更有效
11:54
we know can slow the course of AIDS.
296
714260
2000
这导致了40万人因为感染艾滋病而死亡。
11:56
Hundreds of thousands of needless deaths
297
716260
2000
成千上万的本不必要死亡的人们
11:58
in a country that has been plagued
298
718260
3000
因此而死。
12:01
worse than any other by this disease.
299
721260
2000
那里恰恰又是全球感染艾滋病最严重的地区。
12:03
Please, don't tell me
300
723260
2000
请不要跟我说这些事例是
12:05
there are no consequences to these things.
301
725260
2000
不会产生严重后果的。
12:07
There are. There always are.
302
727260
2000
后果是有的 ,总是会有的。
12:09
Now, the most mindless epidemic
303
729260
2000
现在,我们遇到的最无知的传染病
12:11
we're in the middle of right now
304
731260
2000
就是转基因作物
12:13
is this absurd battle
305
733260
2000
与有机精耕作物
12:15
between proponents of genetically engineered food
306
735260
3000
两个阵营之间的
12:18
and the organic elite.
307
738260
2000
愚蠢对抗。
12:20
It's an idiotic debate. It has to stop.
308
740260
2000
这也是一个愚蠢的争辩。我们必须停止这样的争辩了。
12:22
It's a debate about words, about metaphors.
309
742260
3000
因为争辩的只是字眼和隐喻本身。
12:25
It's ideology, it's not science.
310
745260
2000
是关于意识形态的争辩,而不是关于科学的争辩。
12:27
Every single thing we eat, every grain of rice,
311
747260
2000
我们吃进肚子里的每一样东西,每一颗饭,
12:29
every sprig of parsley,
312
749260
2000
每一根香菜,
12:31
every Brussels sprout
313
751260
2000
每根布鲁塞尔豆芽
12:33
has been modified by man.
314
753260
2000
都曾被人类改变过。
12:35
You know, there weren't tangerines in the garden of Eden.
315
755260
2000
因为在伊甸园里本来就没有橘子的,
12:37
There wasn't any cantaloupe. (Laughter)
316
757260
2000
也没有哈密瓜,
12:39
There weren't Christmas trees. We made it all.
317
759260
3000
更不会有圣诞树。都是人造出来的。
12:42
We made it over the last 11,000 years.
318
762260
3000
人类在过去一万一千年里造出了这些东西。
12:45
And some of it worked, and some of it didn't.
319
765260
2000
有些试验成功了,有些失败了。
12:47
We got rid of the stuff that didn't.
320
767260
2000
那些失败的尝试就被抛弃了。
12:49
Now we can do it in a more precise way --
321
769260
2000
而现在我们可以以一种更为精准的方式来做试验。
12:51
and there are risks, absolutely --
322
771260
2000
这肯定会有风险的。
12:53
but we can put something like vitamin A into rice,
323
773260
3000
但是我们可以把维他命A放到水稻的基因里,
12:56
and that stuff can help millions of people,
324
776260
3000
这将会拯救数百万人的生命,
12:59
millions of people, prolong their lives.
325
779260
3000
或者延长他们的寿命。
13:02
You don't want to do that?
326
782260
2000
你不愿做这样的努力吗?
13:04
I have to say, I don't understand it.
327
784260
3000
我只能说,我对此不理解。
13:07
We object to genetically engineered food.
328
787260
2000
我们不少人在反对转基因食物。
13:09
Why do we do that?
329
789260
2000
为什么呢?
13:11
Well, the things I constantly hear are:
330
791260
2000
我经常听到的理由是:
13:13
Too many chemicals,
331
793260
2000
(转基因食物)太多化学成分了,
13:15
pesticides, hormones,
332
795260
2000
太多农药、荷尔蒙,
13:17
monoculture, we don't want giant fields
333
797260
2000
单一化的生产,
13:19
of the same thing, that's wrong.
334
799260
2000
确实我们不希望数百亩的地都是生产同样的作物,那样不好。
13:21
We don't companies patenting life.
335
801260
2000
我们也不想让商业公司为新作物打上专利。
13:23
We don't want companies owning seeds.
336
803260
2000
我们也不想让大公司垄断种子。
13:25
And you know what my response to all of that is?
337
805260
2000
你能猜想我对这些反对意见的回应吗?
13:27
Yes, you're right. Let's fix it.
338
807260
3000
对,猜对了,让我们一起来解决这些问题。
13:30
It's true, we've got a huge food problem,
339
810260
2000
不错,我们遇到了非常严重的食品问题,
13:32
but this isn't science.
340
812260
2000
但这不是科学的问题。
13:34
This has nothing to do with science.
341
814260
2000
因为这与科学无关。
13:36
It's law, it's morality, it's patent stuff.
342
816260
3000
这是法律、伦理、专利法相关的问题。
13:39
You know science isn't a company.
343
819260
2000
要知道,科学并非一家公司,
13:41
It's not a country.
344
821260
2000
也不是一个国家,
13:43
It's not even an idea; it's a process.
345
823260
3000
甚至不是一个想法,它是一个过程。
13:46
It's a process, and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't,
346
826260
3000
这样的过程有时候取得成功,有时候失败,
13:49
but the idea that we should not allow
347
829260
3000
但因为我们畏惧
13:52
science to do its job
348
832260
2000
而认为我们不该让科学家去
13:54
because we're afraid,
349
834260
2000
做深入研究本职工作
13:56
is really very deadening,
350
836260
2000
是非常可怕的,
13:58
and it's preventing millions of people
351
838260
2000
这也会阻碍了数以百万计的人
14:00
from prospering.
352
840260
2000
走向繁荣。
14:02
You know, in the next 50 years
353
842260
2000
未来的50年
14:04
we're going to have to grow 70 percent more food than we do right now,
354
844260
3000
我们需要比现在种植
14:07
70 percent.
355
847260
2000
多70%的粮食。
14:09
This investment in Africa over the last 30 years.
356
849260
3000
这是我们过去30年在非洲投资的总计。
14:12
Disgraceful. Disgraceful.
357
852260
2000
这让我们很丢脸。
14:14
They need it, and we're not giving it to them.
358
854260
2000
那里的人需要这些,但我们偏偏不给。
14:16
And why? Genetically engineered food.
359
856260
3000
为什么?也是因为转基因食物。
14:19
We don't want to encourage people
360
859260
2000
我们不鼓励人们去
14:21
to eat that rotten stuff, like cassava for instance.
361
861260
3000
吃变坏的食物,比如变坏的木薯。
14:24
Cassava's something that half a billion people eat.
362
864260
2000
世界上有5000万人是靠吃木薯为生的。
14:26
It's kind of like a potato.
363
866260
2000
那是跟马铃薯比较像的一种作物。
14:28
It's just a bunch of calories. It sucks.
364
868260
2000
就只有卡路里,味道也不好。
14:30
It doesn't have nutrients, it doesn't have protein,
365
870260
2000
没有营养,也没有蛋白质,
14:32
and scientists are engineering
366
872260
2000
现在有科学家在尝试
14:34
all of that into it right now.
367
874260
2000
把这些加到木薯里。
14:36
And then people would be able to eat it and they'd be able to not go blind.
368
876260
3000
吃到这些经过改良的木薯的人就可以避免失明。
14:39
They wouldn't starve, and you know what?
369
879260
2000
也不会挨饿,你会了解到,
14:41
That would be nice. It wouldn't be Chez Panisse,
370
881260
3000
这是好事情。虽然比不上高档餐厅,
14:44
but it would be nice.
371
884260
2000
但也是好事。
14:48
And all I can say about this is:
372
888260
2000
我只能说,
14:50
Why are we fighting it?
373
890260
2000
为什么有些人要反对这个?
14:52
I mean, let's ask ourselves: Why are we fighting it?
374
892260
2000
请大家问问自己:我们为何要反对?
14:54
Because we don't want to move genes around?
375
894260
2000
因为我们不想移动基因组吗?
14:56
This is about moving genes around. It's not about chemicals.
376
896260
3000
这仅仅是移动了一些基因组,跟添加化学物质没有任何关联。
14:59
It's not about our ridiculous passion for hormones,
377
899260
3000
跟荷尔蒙也没有关系。
15:02
our insistence on having bigger food,
378
902260
2000
我们总是希望获得更大的食物,
15:04
better food, singular food.
379
904260
2000
更好的食物,更专一的食物。
15:06
This isn't about Rice Krispies,
380
906260
2000
这不是要造米酥,
15:08
this is about keeping people alive,
381
908260
2000
只是想让一些人活下来,
15:10
and it's about time we started to understand what that meant.
382
910260
3000
现在是时候我们认真理解这过程的含义了。
15:13
Because, you know something?
383
913260
2000
你知道吗?
15:15
If we don't, if we continue to act the way we're acting,
384
915260
3000
假如我们不这么做,而是坚持现在的做法,
15:18
we're guilty of something that I don't think we want to be guilty of:
385
918260
3000
我们未来将会因为一些我们不希望发生的事情而有负罪感,
15:21
high-tech colonialism.
386
921260
2000
那将是高科技的殖民主义。
15:23
There's no other way to describe what's going on here.
387
923260
2000
没有其他别的词语更合适于描述这一状况了。
15:25
It's selfish, it's ugly,
388
925260
2000
这是自私的,肮脏的,
15:27
it's beneath us,
389
927260
2000
这么做只会降低我们的尊严,
15:29
and we really have to stop it.
390
929260
3000
我们必须停止这么做。
15:32
So after this amazingly fun conversation,
391
932260
3000
好了,这样一场非常有趣的对话之后,
15:35
(Laughter)
392
935260
2000
(笑声)
15:37
you might want to say, "So, you still want to get in this
393
937260
2000
你也许会说,“你还会走进这一时间机器,
15:39
ridiculous time machine and go forward?"
394
939260
2000
并且驶向未来吗?”
15:41
Absolutely. Absolutely, I do.
395
941260
3000
那当然。我肯定会那么做。
15:44
It's stuck in the present right now,
396
944260
2000
这机器现在停在当下,
15:46
but we have an amazing opportunity.
397
946260
2000
但是我们遇到了非常好的机遇。
15:48
We can set that time machine on anything we want.
398
948260
3000
我们可以如愿任意设置时间机器。
15:51
We can move it where we want to move it,
399
951260
2000
想去那里就去那里,
15:53
and we're going to move it where we want to move it.
400
953260
2000
我们可以去到我们真正希望到达的地方。
15:55
We have to have these conversations and we have to think,
401
955260
3000
我们需要开展这样的对话,我们需要思考,
15:58
but when we get in the time machine and we go ahead,
402
958260
3000
当我们进入时间机器并且驶向未来时,
16:01
we're going to be happy we do.
403
961260
2000
我们会为我们的选择感到高兴。
16:03
I know that we can,
404
963260
2000
我相信我们可以,
16:05
and as far as I'm concerned,
405
965260
2000
而就我的理解,
16:07
that's something the world needs right now.
406
967260
3000
这就是世界现在所需要的东西。
16:10
(Applause)
407
970260
2000
谢谢大家
16:12
Thank you.
408
972260
3000
(掌声)
16:15
Thank you.
409
975260
2000
谢谢
16:17
Thank you. Thank you.
410
977260
4000
(掌声)
关于本网站

这个网站将向你介绍对学习英语有用的YouTube视频。你将看到来自世界各地的一流教师教授的英语课程。双击每个视频页面上显示的英文字幕,即可从那里播放视频。字幕会随着视频的播放而同步滚动。如果你有任何意见或要求,请使用此联系表与我们联系。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7