Understanding the rise of China | Martin Jacques

Translator: eva dovč Reviewer: Tilen Pigac - EFZG

The world is changing

Svet se spreminja,

with really remarkable speed.

z neverjetno hitrostjo.

If you look at the chart at the top here,

Če si ogledate tale graf tu,

you'll see that in 2025,

boste videli, da do leta 2025,

these Goldman Sachs projections

Goldman Sachs,

suggest that the Chinese economy

napoveduje, da bo kitajsko gospodarstvo

will be almost the same size as the American economy.

skoraj tako veliko kot ameriško.

And if you look at the chart

In, če si pogledate graf,

for 2050,

za leto 2050,

it's projected that the Chinese economy

napovedujejo, da bo kitajsko gospodarstvo,

will be twice the size of the American economy,

takrat dvakrat večje od ameriškega,

and the Indian economy will be almost the same size

medtem, ko bo indijsko gospodarstvo enako veliko,

as the American economy.

kot ameriško.

And we should bear in mind here

Ne smemo pa pozabiti,

that these projections were drawn up

da so bile te napovedi narejene,

before the Western financial crisis.

pred gospodarsko krizo na Zahodu.

A couple of weeks ago,

Pred nekaj tedni,

I was looking at the latest projection

sem si ogledoval zadnje napovedi,

by BNP Paribas

banke BNP Paribas,

for when China

kjer so napovedali,

will have a larger economy

kdaj bo kitajsko gospodarstvo,

than the United States.

večje od ameriškega.

Goldman Sachs projected 2027.

Goldman Sachs je napovedal leto 2027.

The post-crisis projection

Ponovna ocena po krizi,

is 2020.

je leto 2020.

That's just a decade away.

To je samo desetletje stran.

China is going to change the world

Kitajska bo spremenila svet,

in two fundamental respects.

v dveh odločilnih pogledih.

First of all,

Kot prvo,

it's a huge developing country

to je ogromna razvijajoča se država,

with a population of 1.3 billion people,

z 1,3 miljarde prebivalcev,

which has been growing for over 30 years

ki se s povprečno 10% rastjo,

at around 10 percent a year.

razvija že zadnjih 30 let.

And within a decade,

In v enem desetletju,

it will have the largest economy in the world.

bo to postalo največje gospodarstvo na svetu.

Never before in the modern era

Nikoli poprej v moderni dobi se še ni zgodilo,

has the largest economy in the world

da bi bilo največje gospodarstvo na svetu,

been that of a developing country,

gospodarstvo države v razvoju,

rather than a developed country.

in ne, razvite države.

Secondly,

Kot drugo,

for the first time in the modern era,

prvič v moderni dobi, bo prišlo do tega,

the dominant country in the world --

da dominantna sila,

which I think is what China will become --

kar bo, po mojem mnenju, kmalu Kitajska,

will be not from the West

ne bo država na Zahodu,

and from very, very different civilizational roots.

ampak bo to država z zelo drugačnim civilizacijskim ozadjem.

Now, I know it's a widespread assumption in the West

Torej, vem, da je na Zahodu precej razširjeno mišljenje,

that as countries modernize,

da se država, ko se razvija,

they also westernize.

istočasno tudi pozahodnji.

This is an illusion.

To je iluzija.

It's an assumption that modernity

Predvidevanje, da je modernost

is a product simply of competition, markets and technology.

zgolj produkt konkurence, trga in tehnologije.

It is not. It is also shaped equally

To ne drži; sočasno je tudi pod vplivi

by history and culture.

zgodovine in kulture.

China is not like the West,

Kitajska ni takšna kot Zahod,

and it will not become like the West.

in to niti nikoli ne bo postala.

It will remain in very fundamental respects

V najbolj osnovnih ozirih,

very different.

bo ostala drugačna.

Now the big question here is obviously,

No, veliko vprašanje tu je,

how do we make sense of China?

na kakšen način si Kitajsko razlagamo?

How do we try to understand what China is?

Kako jo lahko poskusimo razumeti?

And the problem we have in the West at the moment, by and large,

In problem, ki je na Zahodu zagotovo najbolj prisoten je,

is that the conventional approach

da si Kitajsko konvencionalno razlagamo,

is that we understand it really in Western terms,

znotraj predpostavk Zahoda,

using Western ideas.

v okviru Zahodnih idej.

We can't.

Tega ne smemo.

Now I want to offer you

Zdaj vam bom pokazal,

three building blocks

tri gradbene stolpce,

for trying to understand what China is like,

da boste lažje razumeli kakšna je Kitajska --

just as a beginning.

za začetek.

The first is this:

Kot prvo,

that China is not really a nation-state.

Kitajska v bistvu ni nacionalna država.

Okay, it's called itself a nation-state

No, tako se je sicer večkrat poimenovala,

for the last hundred years,

v zadnjih stotih letih.

but everyone who knows anything about China

Vendar vsak, ki ima vsaj nekaj pojma o Kitajski,

knows it's a lot older than this.

ve, da je precej starejša kot toliko.

This was what China looked like with the victory of the Qin Dynasty

Takole je izgledalo kitajsko ozemlje v času prevlade dinastije Qin,

in 221 B.C. at the end of the warring-state period --

221 pr.n.št, ob koncu obdobja vojskujočih držav --

the birth of modern China.

to je rojstvo moderne Kitajske.

And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China.

In lahko jo primerjate z mejami današnje Kitajske.

Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty,

Ali pa, takoj za tem, dinastijo Han,

still 2,000 years ago.

še vedno 2.000 let nazaj.

And you can see already it occupies

In lahko vidite, da že takrat zaseda,

most of what we now know as Eastern China,

večino ozemlja, ki ga poznamo pod imenom vzhodna Kitajska,

which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then

kjer je že takrat, tako kot tudi danes,

and live now.

živela večina Kitajcev.

Now what is extraordinary about this

No, kar je najbolj zanimivo,

is, what gives China its sense of being China,

je to kaj Kitajsko naredi Kitajsko,

what gives the Chinese

in kaj da Kitajcem občutek,

the sense of what it is to be Chinese,

zavedanje, da so Kitajci,

comes not from the last hundred years,

in to ni prišlo v zadnjih stotih letih,

not from the nation-state period,

ne v obdobju nacionalne države,

which is what happened in the West,

kot se je to zgodilo na Zahodu,

but from the period, if you like,

ampak v obdobju, lahko bi rekli,

of the civilization-state.

civilizacijske države.

I'm thinking here, for example,

Tu imam v mislih, na primer,

of customs like ancestral worship,

obred čaščenja prednikov,

of a very distinctive notion of the state,

ki daje svojevrstno predstavo o državi,

likewise, a very distinctive notion of the family,

podobno, dajo posebno predstavo o družini,

social relationships like guanxi,

družbena razmerja kot so guanxi,

Confucian values and so on.

konfucijanske vrednote itd.

These are all things that come

To vse so stvari,

from the period of the civilization-state.

ki prihajajo iz obdobje civilizacijske države.

In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in the world,

Povedano drugače, Kitajsko, za razliko od Zahodnih in večine držav na svetu,

is shaped by its sense of civilization,

je izoblikovala ideja o civilizaciji,

its existence as a civilization-state,

ko je obstajala kot civilizacijska država

rather than as a nation-state.

in ne nacionalna država.

And there's one other thing to add to this, and that is this:

Potrebno pa je omeniti še nekaj drugega in to je:

Of course we know China's big, huge,

Seveda, vsi vemo, da je Kitajska velika, ogromna,

demographically and geographically,

v demografskem in geografskem smislu,

with a population of 1.3 billion people.

z 1,3 milijardami prebivalcev.

What we often aren't really aware of

Pogostokrat pa se ne zavedamo,

is the fact

dejstva,

that China is extremely diverse

da je Kitajska izjemno raznolika

and very pluralistic,

in pluralistična

and in many ways very decentralized.

ter v mnogih pogledih izjemno decentralizirana.

You can't run a place on this scale simply from Beijing,

Tako ogromen prostor preprosto ne morete obvladovati samo iz Pekinga,

even though we think this to be the case.

čeprav si ponavadi to tako predstavljamo.

It's never been the case.

Vendar to nikoli ni držalo.

So this is China, a civilization-state,

To je torej Kitajska, civilizacijska država

rather than a nation-state.

in ne nacionalna država.

And what does it mean?

In kaj to sploh pomeni?

Well, I think it has all sorts of profound implications.

Mislim, da ima to celo vrsto pomembnih posledic.

I'll give you two quick ones.

Naštel vam bom dve takojšnji.

The first is that

Prva je ta,

the most important political value for the Chinese

da je najbolj pomembna politična vrednota za Kitajce,

is unity,

enotnost,

is the maintenance

torej ohranitev,

of Chinese civilization.

kitajske civilizacije.

You know, 2,000 years ago, Europe:

Pomislite na Evropo pred 2.000 leti:

breakdown -- the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire.

propadanje in razpad Svetega rimskega cesarstva.

It divided, and it's remained divided ever since.

Razdelilo se je in ta delitev ostaja še danes.

China, over the same time period,

Kitajska, je v istem času,

went in exactly the opposite direction,

krenila v popolno nasprotno smer,

very painfully holding this huge civilization,

ko je na zelo boleč način,

civilization-state, together.

ohranjala koncept civilizacijske države.

The second

Druga,

is maybe more prosaic,

je morda bolj predvidljiva,

which is Hong Kong.

v mislih imam Hong Kong.

Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong

Ali se spominjate, ko so Kitajci leta 1997,

by Britain to China in 1997?

ponovno priključili Hong Kong, ki je bil nekaj časa britanski?

You may remember

Morda se spominjate,

what the Chinese constitutional proposition was.

kaj je bil kitajski ustavni predlog.

One country, two systems.

Ena država, dva sistema.

And I'll lay a wager

In stavim,

that barely anyone in the West believed them.

da je malokdo na Zahodu takrat verjel, da jim bo uspelo.

"Window dressing.

”To je le krinka.

When China gets its hands on Hong Kong,

Ko bo Kitajska ponovno dobila Hong Kong,

that won't be the case."

bo to nekaj povsem drugega".

Thirteen years on,

13 let kasneje,

the political and legal system in Hong Kong

je politični in pravni sistem v Hong Kongu,

is as different now as it was in 1997.

še vedno tako drugačen od kitajskeg kot l.1997.

We were wrong. Why were we wrong?

Motili smo se. Zakaj smo se motili?

We were wrong because we thought, naturally enough,

Zato, ker smo razmišljali, povsem logično,

in nation-state ways.

v okviru nacionalne države.

Think of German unification, 1990.

Pomislite na združitev Nemčije leta 1990.

What happened?

Kaj se je zgodilo?

Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West.

No, Zahod je enostavno pogoltnil Vzhod.

One nation, one system.

Ena država, en sistem.

That is the nation-state mentality.

To je mentaliteta nacionalne države.

But you can't run a country like China,

Ampak, države kot je Kitajska,

a civilization-state,

civilizacijske države,

on the basis of one civilization, one system.

ne morete voditi po principu ena civilizacija, en sistem.

It doesn't work.

To ne gre.

So actually the response of China

In tako je bil odgovor Kitajske,

to the question of Hong Kong --

na problem s Hong Kongom --

as it will be to the question of Taiwan --

nekoč bo to tudi problem s Tajvanom --

was a natural response:

povsem naraven odziv:

one civilization, many systems.

ena civilizacija, več sistemov.

Let me offer you another building block

Naj vam omenim še en gradbeni stolpec,

to try and understand China --

ki vam bo pojasnil Kitajsko --

maybe not sort of a comfortable one.

ta morda ni tako prijeten.

The Chinese have a very, very different

Kitajci imajo zelo različen način,

conception of race

dojemanja rase,

to most other countries.

drugačen od večine drugih držav.

Do you know,

Ali veste,

of the 1.3 billion Chinese,

da od 1,3. milijarde Kitajcev,

over 90 percent of them

več kot 90%,

think they belong to the same race,

misli, da pripada isti rasi,

the Han?

to je Han.

Now, this is completely different

To je povsem drugačno,

from the world's [other] most populous countries.

kot v drugih gosto naseljenih državah.

India, the United States,

Indija, ZDA,

Indonesia, Brazil --

Indonezija, Brazilija --

all of them are multiracial.

vse so izrazito multirasne.

The Chinese don't feel like that.

Kitajci ne čutijo tega.

China is only multiracial

Kitajska je večrasna,

really at the margins.

samo ob mejah.

So the question is, why?

Vprašanje pa je, zakaj?

Well the reason, I think, essentially

Mislim, da je razlog za to, v bistvu,

is, again, back to the civilization-state.

spet potrebno poiskati v pojmu civilizacijske države.

A history of at least 2,000 years,

V toku zgodovine vsaj 2.000 let,

a history of conquest, occupation,

v času osvajanj, okupacij,

absorption, assimilation and so on,

absorbcije, asimilacije itd,

led to the process by which,

se je sprožil proces,

over time, this notion of the Han emerged --

identitete ljudstva Han --

of course, nurtured

ki je, seveda rasla,

by a growing and very powerful sense

ob naraščajoči in prevladujoči

of cultural identity.

kulturni identiteti.

Now the great advantage of this historical experience

Glavna prednost takšne zgodovinske izkušnje je bila,

has been that, without the Han,

da brez tega ljudstvu Han,

China could never have held together.

Kitajske nikakor ne bi uspelo obdržati skupaj.

The Han identity has been the cement

Han identiteta je delovala kot cement,

which has held this country together.

ki je državo obdržal skupaj.

The great disadvantage of it

Velika pomanjkljivost pa je,

is that the Han have a very weak conception

da ima ljudstvo Han zelo šibek koncept,

of cultural difference.

kulturne raznolikosti.

They really believe

Pravzaprav verjamejo predvsem

in their own superiority,

da so superiorno ljudstvo

and they are disrespectful

zato so do drugačnih,

of those who are not.

pogosto nepoštljivi.

Hence their attitude, for example,

Pomislite, na primer,

to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans.

na njihov odnos do Ujgurov in Tibetancev.

Or let me give you my third building block,

Naj vam razložim še tretji gradbeni stolpec,

the Chinese state.

to je kitajska državna uprava.

Now the relationship

Razmerje,

between the state and society in China

med državno upravo in družbo na Kitajskem,

is very different from that in the West.

je precej drugačno od tistega kar poznamo na Zahodu.

Now we in the West

Mi tukaj na Zahodu,

overwhelmingly seem to think -- in these days at least --

pogosto radi mislimo -- predvsem v zadnjem času,

that the authority and legitimacy of the state

da je avtoriteta in legitimnost države,

is a function of democracy.

funkcija vsake demokracije.

The problem with this proposition

Problem s to predpostavko pa je,

is that the Chinese state

da ima kitajska državna uprava,

enjoys more legitimacy

mnogo več legitimnosti,

and more authority

in avtoritete,

amongst the Chinese

med Kitajci,

than is true

kot pa katerakoli država,

with any Western state.

na Zahodu.

And the reason for this

Razlog za to,

is because --

pa najdemo v tem,

well, there are two reasons, I think.

no, v bistvu, mislim, da sta tu dva razloga.

And it's obviously got nothing to do with democracy,

Več kot očitno pa to nima nikakršne veze z demokracijo,

because in our terms the Chinese certainly don't have a democracy.

ker po naših standardih Kitajska vsekakor ne velja za demokracijo.

And the reason for this is,

In razlog za to je,

firstly, because the state in China

ko prvo, da ima kitajska državna uprava,

is given a very special --

posebno vlogo --

it enjoys a very special significance

lasti si prav posebno vlogo,

as the representative,

kot predstavnica,

the embodiment and the guardian

utelešenje in varuh,

of Chinese civilization,

kitajske civilizacije,

of the civilization-state.

civilizacijske države.

This is as close as China gets

To je na Kitajskem najbližje pojmu,

to a kind of spiritual role.

duhovne vloge.

And the second reason is because,

Drugi razlog pa je,

whereas in Europe

da kot se v Evropi,

and North America,

in Severni Ameriki,

the state's power is continuously challenged --

zgodi, da državna uprava postane izzvana --

I mean in the European tradition,

mislim, v evropski tradiciji,

historically against the church,

so tako izzvali cerkev,

against other sectors of the aristocracy,

in druge sektorje aristokracije,

against merchants and so on --

izzvali so trgovce itd,

for 1,000 years,

tako v zadnjih 1.000 letih,

the power of the Chinese state

kitajska državna uprava,

has not been challenged.

ni bila izzvana prav od nikogar.

It's had no serious rivals.

Nikoli ni imela močnih nasprotnikov.

So you can see

Lahko opazite,

that the way in which power has been constructed in China

da je način, kako je Kitajska postala močna,

is very different from our experience

povsem drugačen od tega,

in Western history.

ki ga poznamo na Zahodu.

The result, by the way,

Posledično, mimogrede,

is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state.

Kitajci vlogo države dojemajo na drug način kot mi.

Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder,

V državi vidimo predvsem vlogo vsiljivca,

a stranger,

tujca,

certainly an organ

in pa predvsem kot organ,

whose powers need to be limited

čigar vlogo je potrebno omejiti,

or defined and constrained,

definirati in zajeziti;

the Chinese don't see the state like that at all.

Kitajci vidijo nekaj čisto drugega.

The Chinese view the state

Kitajci državo dojemajo,

as an intimate -- not just as an intimate actually,

kot bližnjo -- ne samo kot bližnjo,

as a member of the family --

kot članico družine --

not just in fact as a member of the family,

pa tudi ne samo kot članico družine,

but as the head of the family,

ampak kot glavo družine,

the patriarch of the family.

kot starosto.

This is the Chinese view of the state --

Tako Kitajci dojemajo državo --

very, very different to ours.

na povsem drugačen način kot jo mi.

It's embedded in society in a different kind of way

Država je pri njih vpletena v družbo na drugačen način,

to what is the case

kot pa to velja,

in the West.

za Zahod.

And I would suggest to you that actually what we are dealing with here,

In to s čimer imamo opravka sedaj,

in the Chinese context,

v kontekstu Kitajske,

is a new kind of paradigm,

je nova predpostavka,

which is different from anything

ki je zelo drugačna od vsega,

we've had to think about in the past.

kar poznamo iz preteklosti.

Know that China believes in the market and the state.

Vedite, da Kitajska verjame predvsem v trg in državo.

I mean, Adam Smith,

Mislim, Adam Smith,

already writing in the late 18th century, said,

ki je že v 18. stoletju dejal:

"The Chinese market is larger and more developed

”Kitajski trg je večji in bolj razvit,

and more sophisticated

in bolj prefinjen,

than anything in Europe."

kot karkoli v Evropi”.

And, apart from the Mao period,

In, z izjemo Maotovega obdobja,

that has remained more or less the case ever since.

je to držalo skoraj brez presledka od takrat.

But this is combined

In to v kombinaciji,

with an extremely strong and ubiquitous state.

z močno in povsod navzočo državo.

The state is everywhere in China.

Država je na Kitajskem prisotna povsod.

I mean, it's leading firms --

Mislim, številna najuspešnejša podjetja,

many of them are still publicly owned.

so še vedno v državni lasti.

Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo,

Privatna podjetja, ne glede na njihovo velikost, kot Lenovo,

depend in many ways on state patronage.

pa so v mnogih pogledih odvisni od državnega pokroviteljstva.

Targets for the economy and so on

Gospodarske kvote in druge reči,

are set by the state.

vse to določi država.

And the state, of course, its authority flows into lots of other areas --

In država, seveda, ima avtoriteto tudi na mnogih drugih področjih --

as we are familiar with --

kot vsi dobro vemo --

with something like the one-child policy.

recimo politika enega otroka.

Moreover, this is a very old state tradition,

To pa je tudi stara tradicija,

a very old tradition of statecraft.

umetnosti vodenja države.

I mean, if you want an illustration of this,

Mislim, dober primer tega,

the Great Wall is one.

je Veliki kitajski zid.

But this is another, this is the Grand Canal,

Ampak tu so še drugi, na primer, Veliki prekop,

which was constructed in the first instance

ki so ga začeli graditi,

in the fifth century B.C.

že 500 let pr.n.št,

and was finally completed

in je bil dokončno zgrajen,

in the seventh century A.D.

v 7. stoletju.

It went for 1,114 miles,

Dolg je bil 1.792 kilometrov,

linking Beijing

povezoval pa je Peking,

with Hangzhou and Shanghai.

z mesti Hangzhou in Šanghaj.

So there's a long history

Tako imamo tudi dolgo zgodovino,

of extraordinary state infrastructural projects

megalomanskih infrastrukturnih projektov,

in China,

na Kitajskem,

which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today,

kar pa nam pomaga razjasniti tudi današnjo situacijo,

which is something like the Three Gorges Dam

in projekte kot je jez treh sotesk

and many other expressions

ter mnoge druge dokaze,

of state competence

državne zmogljivosti,

within China.

znotraj Kitajske.

So there we have three building blocks

In tako imamo tri gradbene stolpce,

for trying to understand the difference that is China --

ki nam pomagajo razložiti drugačno Kitajsko --

the civilization-state,

civilizacijska država,

the notion of race

koncept rase

and the nature of the state

in naravnanost državne uprave

and its relationship to society.

ter njena vloga v družbi.

And yet we still insist, by and large,

In vendar v veliki meri še vedno vztrajamo,

in thinking that we can understand China

pri mišljenju, da Kitajsko lahko razumemo,

by simply drawing on Western experience,

skozi izkušnjo na Zahodu,

looking at it through Western eyes,

ko jo gledamo skozi oči Zahodnjaka,

using Western concepts.

ko uporabljamo koncepte Zahoda.

If you want to know why

Če hočete vedeti,

we unerringly seem to get China wrong --

zakaj, brez izjem, Kitajsko napačno interpretiramo --

our predictions about what's going to happen to China are incorrect --

zakaj so naša predvidevanja o tem kaj se bo zgodilo s Kitajsko napačna,

this is the reason.

to je glavni razlog za to.

Unfortunately, I think,

Na žalost,

I have to say that I think

mislim, da je tako,

attitude towards China

da je naš odnos do Kitajske,

is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality.

odsev mišljenja nekega malega Zahodnjaka.

It's kind of arrogant.

Gre za vrsto arogance.

It's arrogant in the sense

Arogance, v tem smislu,

that we think that we are best,

da mislimo, da smo najboljši

and therefore we have the universal measure.

in, da imamo pravico, da postavimo univerzalna merila.

And secondly, it's ignorant.

Kot drugo, gre tudi za ignoranco.

We refuse to really address

Nočemo se zares soočiti s tem,

the issue of difference.

kaj pomeni drugačnost.

You know, there's a very interesting passage

Veste, obstaja zelo zanimiv odlomek o tem,

in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian.

v knjigi Paula Cohena, ameriškega zgodovinarja.

And Paul Cohen argues

V njej Paul Cohen razlaga,

that the West thinks of itself

kako si Zahod domišlja,

as probably the most cosmopolitan

da je najbolj kozmopolitska kultura,

of all cultures.

na svetu.

But it's not.

Ampak to ni.

In many ways,

V mnogih pogledih,

it's the most parochial,

je zelo ozkogled,

because for 200 years,

saj je bil zadnjih 200 let,

the West has been so dominant in the world

Zahod najbolj dominantna sila na svetu,

that it's not really needed

zato niti ni čutil potrebe,

to understand other cultures,

da bi razumel druge kulture,

other civilizations.

druge civilizacije.

Because, at the end of the day,

Kajti, konec koncev,

it could, if necessary by force,

je, če je bilo potrebno tudi s silo,

get its own way.

dosegel kar je hotel.

Whereas those cultures --

Medtem, ko so druge kulture --

virtually the rest of the world, in fact,

v bistvu cel preostali svet --

which have been in a far weaker position, vis-a-vis the West --

ki so bile v primerjavi z Zahodom vedno v slabšem položaju,

have been thereby forced to understand the West,

so bile prisiljene razumeti Zahod,

because of the West's presence in those societies.

zaradi vloge Zahoda v teh družbah.

And therefore, they are, as a result,

In zaradi tega so, posledično,

more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West.

te kulture v mnogih pogledih bolj kozmopolitske od Zahoda.

I mean, take the question of East Asia.

Vzemite, na primer, Vzhodno Azijo.

East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc. --

Vzhodna Azija: Japonska, Koreja, Kitajska itd --

a third of the world's population lives there.

tam živi tretjina svetovne populacije,

Now the largest economic region in the world.

in je zdaj največja gospodarska cona na svetu.

And I'll tell you now,

In povem vam,

that East Asianers, people from East Asia,

državljani držav Vzhodne Azije,

are far more knowledgeable

vejo veliko več

about the West

o Zahodu,

than the West is about East Asia.

kot pa ve Zahod o Vzhodni Aziji.

Now this point is very germane, I'm afraid,

To, na žalost,

to the present.

velja še danes.

Because what's happening? Back to that chart at the beginning,

Namreč, kaj se dogaja? Nazaj k grafu na začetku --

the Goldman Sachs chart.

grafu Goldman Sachs.

What is happening

Dogaja se to,

is that, very rapidly in historical terms,

da se glede na zgodovino,

the world is being driven

svet zelo hitro spreminja,

and shaped,

in oblikuje,

not by the old developed countries,

ne zaradi razvitih držav,

but by the developing world.

ampak držav v razvoju.

We've seen this

Temu smo bili pri priča,

in terms of the G20

pri pojavu G20 --

usurping very rapidly the position of the G7,

ki je zelo hitro nadomestil položaj G7,

or the G8.

oziroma G8.

And there are two consequences of this.

Zato obstajata dve posledici.

First, the West

Prvič, Zahod,

is rapidly losing

skokovito izgublja,

its influence in the world.

svoj vpliv v svetu.

There was a dramatic illustration of this actually a year ago --

Dramatičnemu prikazu tega smo bili lahko priča leto nazaj --

Copenhagen, climate change conference.

v Copenhagnu, na konferenci o klimatskih spremembah.

Europe was not at the final negotiating table.

Takrat Evropa ni bila glavna za pogojevalsko mizo.

When did that last happen?

Kdaj se je to zgodilo nazadnje?

I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago.

Upam si trditi, da pred več kot 200 leti.

And that is what is going to happen in the future.

In to se bo dogajalo tudi v prihodnosti.

And the second implication

In drugič,

is that the world will inevitably, as a consequence,

posledično bo svet neizogibno postal,

become increasingly unfamiliar to us,

vedno bolj neprepoznaven,

because it'll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories

oblikovale ga bodo namreč kulture, izkušnje in zgodovina,

that we are not really familiar with,

ki so nam tuje,

or conversant with.

v katerih nismo domači.

And at last, I'm afraid -- take Europe;

In nazadnje, bojim se, da -- poglejte Evropo,

America is slightly different --

Amerika je drug primer --

but Europeans by and large, I have to say,

ampak Evropejci, v večini, moram reči,

are ignorant,

so ignorantni,

are unaware

ne zavedajo se,

about the way the world is changing.

da se svet spreminja.

Some people -- I've got an English friend in China,

Nekateri ljudje -- na Kitajskem živi moj prijatelj Anglež,

and he said, "The continent is sleepwalking into oblivion."

ki je rekel, ”Stara celina v spanju koraka v pozabo”.

Well, maybe that's true,

Morda to drži,

maybe that's an exaggeration.

morda je to pretiravanje.

But there's another problem which goes along with this --

Hkrati pa se je pojavil še nov problem --

that Europe is increasingly out of touch with the world --

to, da je Evropa vedno manj v stiku s tem kaj se dogaja po svetu --

and that is a sort of

in to je neke vrste,

loss of a sense of the future.

izguba občutka o prihodnosti.

I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future

Mislim, Evropa je nekoč, seveda, narekovala prihodnost,

in its confidence.

s svojo samozavestjo.

Take the 19th century, for example.

Spomnite se, recimo, 19. stoletja.

But this, alas, is no longer true.

Ampak, zdaj to preprosto ne drži več.

If you want to feel the future, if you want to taste the future,

Če hočete občutiti prihodnost, če jo hočete okusiti,

try China -- there's old Confucius.

poskusite s Kitajsko -- tole je stari mojster Konfucij.

This is a railway station

Tole je železniška postaja,

the likes of which you've never seen before.

takšna, kot je še niste videli.

It doesn't even look like a railway station.

In niti ne izgleda kot železniška postaja.

This is the new [Wuhan] railway station

To je nova železniška postaja mesta Guangzhou,

for the high-speed trains.

namenjena hitrim vlakom.

China already has a bigger network

Kitajska ima že zdaj večje omrežje,

than any other country in the world

kot katerakoli druga država na svetu,

and will soon have more than all the rest of the world put together.

in kmalu bo omrežje večje kot vsa ostala omrežja skupaj.

Or take this: now this is an idea,

Ali pa: no, to je samo ideja,

but it's an idea to be tried out shortly

ampak ideja, ki jo bodo kmalu preizkusili,

in a suburb of Beijing.

v predmestju Pekinga.

Here you have a megabus,

Tu imate megabus,

on the upper deck carries about 2,000 people.

ki na zgornjem krovu prevaža kar 2.000 ljudi.

It travels on rails

Potuje po tirnicah,

down a suburban road,

po predmestnih cestah,

and the cars travel underneath it.

in avtomobili vozijo pod njim.

And it does speeds of up to about 100 miles an hour.

Vozi se lahko s hitrostjo do 100 milj na uro.

Now this is the way things are going to move,

Tako se bodo odvijale stvari v prihodnosti,

because China has a very specific problem,

ko se bo Kitajska soočala s svojim problemom,

which is different from Europe

drugačnem od tega kar pozna Evropa,

and different from the United States:

ali ZDA.

China has huge numbers of people and no space.

Kitajska ima ogromno ljudi in nič prostora.

So this is a solution to a situation

Zato je to rešitev za situacijo,

where China's going to have

ko bo Kitajska imela,

many, many, many cities

zelo, zelo veliko mest,

over 20 million people.

z več kot 20 milijoni ljudi.

Okay, so how would I like to finish?

Dobro, in kako bi rad zaključil?

Well, what should our attitude be

Kakšen naj bi bil torej naš odnos,

towards this world

do sveta,

that we see

ki se zdaj,

very rapidly developing

bliskovito razvija,

before us?

pred našimi očmi?

I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it.

Mislim, da to zajema tako pozitivne, kot pa tudi negativne posledice.

But I want to argue, above all,

Vendar, predvsem bi rad zagovarjal,

a big-picture positive for this world.

odnos, kjer bi pozitivno gledali na svet.

For 200 years,

Zadnjih 200 let,

the world was essentially governed

je svet v celoti vodila,

by a fragment of the human population.

frakcija celotne svetovne populacije.

That's what Europe and North America represented.

To sta predstavljali Evropa in Severna Amerika.

The arrival of countries

Prihod držav,

like China and India --

kot sta Kitajska in Indija --

between them 38 percent of the world's population --

ki predstavljata 38% celotne svetovne populacije --

and others like Indonesia and Brazil and so on,

in drugih držav, kot sta Indonezija, Brazilija ter druge,

represent the most important single act

predstavljajo najpomembnejše dejanje,

of democratization

demokratizacije,

in the last 200 years.

v zadnjih 200 letih.

Civilizations and cultures,

Civilizacije in kulture,

which had been ignored, which had no voice,

ki so bile ignorirane, ki so bile brez zagovornikov,

which were not listened to, which were not known about,

ki jih nihče ni slišal, niti ni nihče vedel zanje,

will have a different sort

bodo v prihodnosti imele,

of representation in this world.

povsem drugačno vlogo v svetu.

As humanists, we must welcome, surely,

Kot humanisti, moramo to pozdraviti,

this transformation,

to preobrazbo.

and we will have to learn

In morali se bomo poučiti,

about these civilizations.

o teh civilizacijah.

This big ship here

Velika ladja tu,

was the one sailed in by Zheng He

je ladja, ki jo je vodil Zheng He,

in the early 15th century

v začetku 15. stoletja,

on his great voyages

na svojih velikih potovanjih,

around the South China Sea, the East China Sea

v južnokitajskem morju, vzhodnokitajskem morju,

and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa.

in čez Indijski ocean do Vzhodne Afrike.

The little boat in front of it

Mala ladja pred njo,

was the one in which, 80 years later,

je tista, ki jo je, 80 let kasneje,

Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic.

Krištof Kolumb popeljal čez Atlantik.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Or, look carefully

Ali pa, pozorno si poglejte,

at this silk scroll

svileni zavitek,

made by ZhuZhou

ki ga je naredil Zhu Zhou,

in 1368.

leta 1368.

I think they're playing golf.

Izgleda, kot da igrajo golf.

Christ, the Chinese even invented golf.

Kristus, Kitajci so izumili celo golf.

Welcome to the future. Thank you.

Dobrodošli v prihodnosti. Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplavz)