Understanding the rise of China | Martin Jacques

2,400,404 views ・ 2011-01-24

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Prevoditelj: Davorin Jelačić Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG
00:15
The world is changing
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Svijet se mijenja
00:17
with really remarkable speed.
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zaista izvanrednom brzinom.
00:20
If you look at the chart at the top here,
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Ako pogledate na gornji dio grafikona,
00:22
you'll see that in 2025,
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vidjet ćete da za 2025. godinu,
00:24
these Goldman Sachs projections
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prognoze Goldman Sachsa
00:26
suggest that the Chinese economy
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predviđaju da će kinesko gospodarstvo
00:28
will be almost the same size as the American economy.
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gotovo dostići veličinu američkog gospodarstva.
00:31
And if you look at the chart
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A ako pogledate grafikon
00:34
for 2050,
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za 2050. godinu,
00:36
it's projected that the Chinese economy
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projekcija je da će kinesko gospodarstvo
00:39
will be twice the size of the American economy,
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biti dvostruko veće od američkog gospodarstva,
00:42
and the Indian economy will be almost the same size
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a indijsko će biti gotovo iste veličine
00:44
as the American economy.
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kao američko.
00:47
And we should bear in mind here
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Moramo ovdje voditi računa o tome
00:49
that these projections were drawn up
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da su ove prognoze nastale
00:51
before the Western financial crisis.
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prije zapadne financijske krize.
00:54
A couple of weeks ago,
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Prije nekoliko tjedana,
00:56
I was looking at the latest projection
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pogledao sam posljednju prognozu
00:58
by BNP Paribas
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koju je pripremio BNP Paribas
01:00
for when China
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o tome kada će Kina
01:03
will have a larger economy
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imati veće gospodarstvo
01:05
than the United States.
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od gospodarstva Sjedinjenih Država.
01:07
Goldman Sachs projected 2027.
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Goldman Sachs je predvidio da će to biti 2027.
01:11
The post-crisis projection
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Prognoza nakon krize
01:14
is 2020.
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kaže da će to biti 2020.
01:17
That's just a decade away.
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To je samo desetljeće od danas.
01:19
China is going to change the world
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Kina će promijeniti svijet
01:23
in two fundamental respects.
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na dva fundamentalna načina.
01:26
First of all,
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Prvo,
01:28
it's a huge developing country
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ona je ogromna zemlja u razvoju
01:30
with a population of 1.3 billion people,
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sa stanovništvom od 1,3 milijarde ljudi,
01:34
which has been growing for over 30 years
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koje već preko 30 godina raste
01:37
at around 10 percent a year.
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stopom od oko 10 posto na godinu.
01:39
And within a decade,
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I u narednih 10 godina,
01:41
it will have the largest economy in the world.
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imat će najveću ekonomiju na svijetu.
01:45
Never before in the modern era
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Nikada ranije u modernoj eri
01:48
has the largest economy in the world
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nije najveće gospodarstvo svijeta
01:51
been that of a developing country,
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bilo gospodarstvo zemlje u razvoju,
01:53
rather than a developed country.
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već je to bilo gospodarstvo neke razvijene zemlje.
01:57
Secondly,
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Drugo,
01:59
for the first time in the modern era,
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po prvi puta u moderno doba,
02:01
the dominant country in the world --
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dominantna država svijeta --
02:03
which I think is what China will become --
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što mislim da će Kina postati --
02:06
will be not from the West
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neće biti sa Zapada
02:09
and from very, very different civilizational roots.
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i potječe od jako, jako različitih civilizacijskih korijena.
02:13
Now, I know it's a widespread assumption in the West
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Znam da je na Zapadu široko rasprostranjeno uvjerenje
02:17
that as countries modernize,
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da modernizacijom zemalja,
02:20
they also westernize.
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one postaju više zapadnjačke.
02:22
This is an illusion.
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To je iluzija.
02:24
It's an assumption that modernity
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Misli se da je modernitet
02:26
is a product simply of competition, markets and technology.
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jednostavno proizvod konkurencije, tržišta i tehnologije.
02:29
It is not. It is also shaped equally
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Nije; jednako tako oblikuju ga
02:31
by history and culture.
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povijest i kultura.
02:33
China is not like the West,
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Kina nije poput Zapada,
02:36
and it will not become like the West.
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i neće ni postati poput Zapada.
02:39
It will remain in very fundamental respects
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U nekim fundamentalnim vidovima
02:41
very different.
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ostat će bitno drukčija.
02:43
Now the big question here is obviously,
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Očito je veliko pitanje ovdje,
02:46
how do we make sense of China?
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kako da shvatimo Kinu?
02:48
How do we try to understand what China is?
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Kako da pokušamo razumjeti što je Kina?
02:50
And the problem we have in the West at the moment, by and large,
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Problem koji trenutno imamo na Zapadu
02:53
is that the conventional approach
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je onaj konvencionalnog pristupa
02:55
is that we understand it really in Western terms,
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kojim Kinu razumijemo zapravo u zapadnjačkim okvirima,
02:57
using Western ideas.
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primjenjujući zapadnjačke ideje.
03:00
We can't.
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Ne možemo tako.
03:02
Now I want to offer you
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Želim vam ponuditi
03:04
three building blocks
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tri građevna elementa
03:06
for trying to understand what China is like,
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kojima ćemo pokušati shvatiti kakva je Kina --
03:09
just as a beginning.
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samo za početak.
03:11
The first is this:
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Prvi je taj,
03:13
that China is not really a nation-state.
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da Kina zapravo nije nacionalna država.
03:16
Okay, it's called itself a nation-state
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OK, ona se naziva nacionalnom državom
03:18
for the last hundred years,
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u posljednjih stotinu godina.
03:20
but everyone who knows anything about China
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Ali svi koji nešto znaju o Kini
03:22
knows it's a lot older than this.
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znaju da je puno starija od toga.
03:24
This was what China looked like with the victory of the Qin Dynasty
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Ovako je Kina izgledala nakon pobjede Qin dinastije
03:27
in 221 B.C. at the end of the warring-state period --
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221. pr.Kr. na kraju razdoblja zaraćene države --
03:30
the birth of modern China.
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to je rođenje moderne Kine.
03:32
And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China.
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I možete vidjeti usporedbu s granicama moderne Kine.
03:35
Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty,
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Ili odmah nakon toga, dinastija Han,
03:37
still 2,000 years ago.
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još uvijek prije 2.000 godina.
03:39
And you can see already it occupies
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I vidite da već zauzima
03:41
most of what we now know as Eastern China,
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većinu područja koje danas znamo kao istočnu Kinu,
03:43
which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then
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gdje je ogromna većina Kineza živjela u ono vrijeme,
03:46
and live now.
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a živi i danas.
03:48
Now what is extraordinary about this
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Ono što je ovdje izuzetno je to
03:50
is, what gives China its sense of being China,
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da ono što Kini daje osjećaj da je Kina,
03:53
what gives the Chinese
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što Kinezima daje osjećaj
03:56
the sense of what it is to be Chinese,
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što to znači biti Kinez,
03:59
comes not from the last hundred years,
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nije nastalo u posljednjih stotinu godina,
04:01
not from the nation-state period,
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nije nastalo u razdoblju nacionalne države,
04:03
which is what happened in the West,
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kako se to dogodilo na Zapadu,
04:06
but from the period, if you like,
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već u razdoblju, ako hoćete,
04:08
of the civilization-state.
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civilizacijske države.
04:10
I'm thinking here, for example,
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Ovdje mislim, primjerice,
04:13
of customs like ancestral worship,
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na običaje poput štovanja predaka,
04:16
of a very distinctive notion of the state,
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na sasvim posebno poimanje države,
04:19
likewise, a very distinctive notion of the family,
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također, na posebno poimanje obitelji,
04:22
social relationships like guanxi,
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društvene odnose kao što je guanxi,
04:24
Confucian values and so on.
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konfucijske vrijednosti, i tako dalje.
04:26
These are all things that come
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Sve to dolazi
04:28
from the period of the civilization-state.
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iz razdoblja civilizacijske države.
04:31
In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in the world,
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Drugim riječima, za razliku od zapadnih država i većine zemalja svijeta,
04:34
is shaped by its sense of civilization,
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Kina je oblikovana svojim osjećajem civilizacije,
04:37
its existence as a civilization-state,
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svojim postojanjem kao civilizacijska,
04:39
rather than as a nation-state.
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umjesto kao nacionalna država.
04:41
And there's one other thing to add to this, and that is this:
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Ovome treba dodati još nešto, a to je ovo:
04:44
Of course we know China's big, huge,
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Naravno da znamo da je Kina velika, ogromna,
04:46
demographically and geographically,
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demografski i zemljopisno,
04:49
with a population of 1.3 billion people.
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sa stanovništvom od 1,3 milijarde ljudi.
04:52
What we often aren't really aware of
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Ono čega često nismo doista svjesni
04:55
is the fact
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je činjenica
04:57
that China is extremely diverse
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da je Kina izuzetno različita
04:59
and very pluralistic,
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i vrlo pluralistička,
05:01
and in many ways very decentralized.
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i na mnoge načine vrlo decentralizirana.
05:03
You can't run a place on this scale simply from Beijing,
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Ne možete voditi zemlju ove veličine jednostavno iz Pekinga,
05:06
even though we think this to be the case.
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premda mi mislimo da je baš to slučaj.
05:09
It's never been the case.
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To nikada nije bio slučaj.
05:13
So this is China, a civilization-state,
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Dakle, ovo je Kina, civilizacijska država,
05:15
rather than a nation-state.
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a ne nacionalna država.
05:17
And what does it mean?
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Što to znači?
05:19
Well, I think it has all sorts of profound implications.
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Mislim da ovo ima najrazličitije duboke implikacije.
05:21
I'll give you two quick ones.
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Dat ću vam dva kratka primjera.
05:23
The first is that
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Prvi je
05:25
the most important political value for the Chinese
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da je za Kineze najveća politička vrijednost
05:29
is unity,
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jedinstvo,
05:31
is the maintenance
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održavanje
05:33
of Chinese civilization.
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kineske civilizacije.
05:35
You know, 2,000 years ago, Europe:
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Znate, prije 2.000 godina, u Europi:
05:38
breakdown -- the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire.
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slom, razmrvljenost Svetog Rimskog Carstva.
05:41
It divided, and it's remained divided ever since.
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Ono je podijeljeno i ostalo je podijeljeno od tada.
05:44
China, over the same time period,
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Kina se, u istom tom razdoblju,
05:46
went in exactly the opposite direction,
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kretala u potpuno obrnutom smjeru,
05:48
very painfully holding this huge civilization,
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bolno održavajući ovu ogromnu civilizaciju,
05:51
civilization-state, together.
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civilizacijsku državu, na okupu.
05:54
The second
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Drugi primjer je
05:56
is maybe more prosaic,
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možda prozaičniji,
05:58
which is Hong Kong.
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a to je Hong Kong.
06:00
Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong
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Sjećate li se britanske predaje Hong Konga
06:03
by Britain to China in 1997?
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Kini 1997. godine?
06:05
You may remember
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Možda ćete se sjetiti
06:07
what the Chinese constitutional proposition was.
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što je bio kineski ustavni prijedlog.
06:09
One country, two systems.
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Jedna zemlja, dva sustava.
06:11
And I'll lay a wager
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I kladit ću se
06:13
that barely anyone in the West believed them.
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da je jedva bilo ikoga na Zapadu tko im je vjerovao.
06:15
"Window dressing.
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"Šarena laža.
06:17
When China gets its hands on Hong Kong,
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Kad se Kina dočepa Hong Konga,
06:19
that won't be the case."
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neće biti tako."
06:21
Thirteen years on,
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13 godina nakon toga,
06:23
the political and legal system in Hong Kong
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politički i pravni sustav u Hong Kongu
06:25
is as different now as it was in 1997.
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jednako je različit danas kao što je bio i 1997.
06:28
We were wrong. Why were we wrong?
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Pogriješili smo. Zašto smo pogriješili?
06:31
We were wrong because we thought, naturally enough,
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Pogriješili smo jer smo mislili, prirodno,
06:34
in nation-state ways.
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u terminima nacionalnih država.
06:36
Think of German unification, 1990.
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Pomislite na njemačko ujedinjenje, 1990.
06:38
What happened?
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Što se dogodilo?
06:40
Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West.
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Pa, Istok je praktički bio progutan od Zapada.
06:42
One nation, one system.
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Jedna zemlja, jedan sustav.
06:44
That is the nation-state mentality.
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To je mentalitet nacionalne države.
06:47
But you can't run a country like China,
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Ali ne možete upravljati zemljom poput Kine,
06:50
a civilization-state,
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civilizacijskom državom,
06:52
on the basis of one civilization, one system.
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na načelu jedna civilizacija, jedan sustav.
06:55
It doesn't work.
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Ne funkcionira.
06:57
So actually the response of China
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Pa je, u stvari, kineski odgovor
07:00
to the question of Hong Kong --
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na pitanje Hong Konga --
07:02
as it will be to the question of Taiwan --
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kao što će biti i na pitanje Taiwana --
07:04
was a natural response:
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bio prirodan:
07:06
one civilization, many systems.
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jedna civilizacija, mnogo sustava.
07:09
Let me offer you another building block
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Dopustite da ponudim i drugi građevni blok
07:11
to try and understand China --
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u pokušaju da razumijemo Kinu --
07:13
maybe not sort of a comfortable one.
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možda ne tako ugodan.
07:16
The Chinese have a very, very different
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Kinezi imaju jako, jako različit
07:18
conception of race
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koncept rase
07:20
to most other countries.
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od većine drugih zemalja.
07:23
Do you know,
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Znate li da,
07:25
of the 1.3 billion Chinese,
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od 1,3 milijarde Kineza,
07:28
over 90 percent of them
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preko 90 posto njih
07:30
think they belong to the same race,
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misli da pripadaju istoj rasi,
07:33
the Han?
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rasi Han.
07:35
Now, this is completely different
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Ovo je potpuno drukčije
07:37
from the world's [other] most populous countries.
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od drugih zemalja s najbrojnijim stanovništvom.
07:40
India, the United States,
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Indija, Sjedinjene Države,
07:42
Indonesia, Brazil --
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Indonezija, Brazil --
07:45
all of them are multiracial.
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sve su višerasne.
07:48
The Chinese don't feel like that.
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Kinezi se ne osjećaju tako.
07:51
China is only multiracial
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Kina je višerasna
07:53
really at the margins.
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zapravo samo na rubovima.
07:56
So the question is, why?
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Pa je pitanje, zašto?
07:58
Well the reason, I think, essentially
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Mislim da je razlog, u suštini,
08:00
is, again, back to the civilization-state.
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opet u civilizacijskoj državi.
08:03
A history of at least 2,000 years,
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Povijest posljednjih 2.000 godina,
08:06
a history of conquest, occupation,
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povijest osvajanja, zauzimanja,
08:08
absorption, assimilation and so on,
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usisavanja, asimilacije i tako dalje,
08:10
led to the process by which,
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vodilo je k procesu u kojem se,
08:12
over time, this notion of the Han emerged --
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vremenom, pojavio ovaj Han identitet --
08:15
of course, nurtured
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hranjen, naravno,
08:17
by a growing and very powerful sense
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rastućim i vrlo moćnim osjećajem
08:20
of cultural identity.
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kulturnog identiteta.
08:23
Now the great advantage of this historical experience
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Velika prednost ovog povijesnog iskustva
08:26
has been that, without the Han,
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bila je da se, bez Hana,
08:30
China could never have held together.
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Kina nikad ne bi održala na okupu.
08:32
The Han identity has been the cement
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Han identitet je bio cement
08:35
which has held this country together.
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koji je zemlju zadržao na okupu.
08:38
The great disadvantage of it
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Velika mana toga je u tome
08:40
is that the Han have a very weak conception
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da Han koncept ima vrlo slabu predodžbu
08:42
of cultural difference.
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o kulturnim različitostima.
08:44
They really believe
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Oni stvarno vjeruju
08:47
in their own superiority,
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u vlastitu superiornost,
08:49
and they are disrespectful
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i ne poštuju
08:51
of those who are not.
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one koji nisu Han.
08:53
Hence their attitude, for example,
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Otuda njihov odnos, na primjer,
08:55
to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans.
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prema Ujgurima i Tibetancima.
08:59
Or let me give you my third building block,
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Ili da vam predstavim i treći građevni element,
09:01
the Chinese state.
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kinesku državu.
09:03
Now the relationship
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Odnos između
09:05
between the state and society in China
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države i društva u Kini
09:08
is very different from that in the West.
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je vrlo različit od onoga na Zapadu.
09:12
Now we in the West
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Mi na Zapadu
09:14
overwhelmingly seem to think -- in these days at least --
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pretežno mislimo – ovih dana, barem --
09:16
that the authority and legitimacy of the state
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da su autoritet i legitimnost države
09:20
is a function of democracy.
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funkcija demokracije.
09:23
The problem with this proposition
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Problem s ovom pretpostavkom
09:25
is that the Chinese state
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je u tome da kineska država
09:29
enjoys more legitimacy
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uživa više legitimnosti
09:31
and more authority
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i više autoriteta
09:33
amongst the Chinese
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među Kinezima
09:36
than is true
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nego što to vrijedi
09:38
with any Western state.
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za bilo koju zapadnu državu.
09:42
And the reason for this
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Razlog za to
09:44
is because --
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je taj --
09:46
well, there are two reasons, I think.
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no, dva su razloga, mislim.
09:48
And it's obviously got nothing to do with democracy,
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I oni očito nemaju ništa s demokracijom,
09:50
because in our terms the Chinese certainly don't have a democracy.
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jer, u našem smislu riječi, Kinezi sigurno nemaju demokraciju.
09:53
And the reason for this is,
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Razlog je,
09:55
firstly, because the state in China
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prvo, u tome što je državi u Kini
09:58
is given a very special --
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dana vrlo posebna --
10:01
it enjoys a very special significance
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ona uživa poseban značaj
10:03
as the representative,
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kao zastupnik,
10:05
the embodiment and the guardian
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utjelovljenje i čuvar
10:08
of Chinese civilization,
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kineske civilizacije,
10:10
of the civilization-state.
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civilizacijske države.
10:13
This is as close as China gets
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Ovo je onoliko blizu duhovnoj ulozi
10:15
to a kind of spiritual role.
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koliko Kina uopće može biti.
10:19
And the second reason is because,
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A drugi razlog je u tome,
10:21
whereas in Europe
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dok se u Europi
10:23
and North America,
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i sjevernoj Americi,
10:25
the state's power is continuously challenged --
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državna moć neprestano osporava --
10:28
I mean in the European tradition,
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mislim na europsku tradiciju,
10:30
historically against the church,
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povijesno protiv crkve,
10:32
against other sectors of the aristocracy,
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protiv drugih dijelova aristokracije,
10:34
against merchants and so on --
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protiv trgovaca, i tako dalje --
10:36
for 1,000 years,
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tijekom 1.000 godina,
10:38
the power of the Chinese state
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moć kineske države
10:40
has not been challenged.
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nitko nije izazvao.
10:42
It's had no serious rivals.
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Nije imala ozbiljnih suparnika.
10:46
So you can see
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Tako vidite
10:48
that the way in which power has been constructed in China
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da je način na koji je moć uspostavljena u Kini
10:52
is very different from our experience
257
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jako različit od našeg iskustva
10:54
in Western history.
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u povijesti Zapada.
10:57
The result, by the way,
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Rezultat je, usput rečeno,
10:59
is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state.
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da Kinezi na vrlo različit način vide državu.
11:04
Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder,
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Dok je mi vidimo kao uljeza,
11:07
a stranger,
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stranca,
11:10
certainly an organ
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svakako kao organ
11:12
whose powers need to be limited
264
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čiju moć treba ograničiti
11:15
or defined and constrained,
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ili definirati i sputati,
11:17
the Chinese don't see the state like that at all.
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Kinezi uopće tako ne vide državu.
11:19
The Chinese view the state
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Kinezi vide državu
11:22
as an intimate -- not just as an intimate actually,
268
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kao blisku – ne samo blisku, zapravo,
11:25
as a member of the family --
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kao člana obitelji --
11:27
not just in fact as a member of the family,
270
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u stvari, ne samo ni kao člana obitelji,
11:29
but as the head of the family,
271
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već kao glavu obitelji,
11:31
the patriarch of the family.
272
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patrijarha obitelji.
11:33
This is the Chinese view of the state --
273
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To je kineski pogled na državu --
11:36
very, very different to ours.
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vrlo, vrlo različit od našeg.
11:38
It's embedded in society in a different kind of way
275
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On je uklopljen u društvo na različit način
11:41
to what is the case
276
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nego što je slučaj
11:43
in the West.
277
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na Zapadu.
11:45
And I would suggest to you that actually what we are dealing with here,
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Predložio bih vam da ono sa čime zapravo imamo posla ovdje,
11:48
in the Chinese context,
279
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u kineskom kontekstu,
11:51
is a new kind of paradigm,
280
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da je to nova paradigma,
11:53
which is different from anything
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koja je različita od bilo čega
11:55
we've had to think about in the past.
282
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o čemu smo morali razmišljati u prošlosti.
11:59
Know that China believes in the market and the state.
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Znajte da Kina vjeruje u tržište i državu.
12:02
I mean, Adam Smith,
284
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Mislim, Adam Smith je,
12:04
already writing in the late 18th century, said,
285
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još u kasnom 18. stoljeću, napisao,
12:07
"The Chinese market is larger and more developed
286
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"Kinesko tržište je veće i razvijenije
12:09
and more sophisticated
287
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i profinjenije
12:11
than anything in Europe."
288
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od bilo kojeg u Europi."
12:13
And, apart from the Mao period,
289
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I, ako izuzmemo razdoblje Mao,
12:15
that has remained more or less the case ever since.
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tako je ostalo, više ili manje, do danas.
12:17
But this is combined
291
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Ali to je kombinirano
12:19
with an extremely strong and ubiquitous state.
292
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s izuzetno snažnom i sveprisutnom državom.
12:23
The state is everywhere in China.
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Država je posvuda u Kini.
12:25
I mean, it's leading firms --
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Mislim, ona upravlja poduzećima,
12:27
many of them are still publicly owned.
295
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mnoga su još uvijek u javnom vlasništvu.
12:30
Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo,
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Privatne tvrtke, koliko god velike bile, poput tvrtke Lenovo,
12:33
depend in many ways on state patronage.
297
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na mnoge načine ovise o državnom patronatu.
12:35
Targets for the economy and so on
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Gospodarske ciljeve i ostalo
12:37
are set by the state.
299
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postavlja država.
12:39
And the state, of course, its authority flows into lots of other areas --
300
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I država, naravno, njezin autoritet ulazi u mnoga druga područja --
12:41
as we are familiar with --
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kao što smo upoznati --
12:43
with something like the one-child policy.
302
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poput politike rađanja samo jednog djeteta.
12:45
Moreover, this is a very old state tradition,
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Nadalje, ovo je vrlo stara državna tradicija,
12:48
a very old tradition of statecraft.
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vrlo stara tradicija umijeća upravljanja državom.
12:50
I mean, if you want an illustration of this,
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Mislim, ako želite ilustraciju ovoga,
12:53
the Great Wall is one.
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Kineski zid je jedna.
12:55
But this is another, this is the Grand Canal,
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Ali ovo je druga, Veliki Kanal,
12:57
which was constructed in the first instance
308
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prvi dio koji je izgrađen
12:59
in the fifth century B.C.
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u petom stoljeću pr.Kr.
13:01
and was finally completed
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i konačno je dovršen
13:03
in the seventh century A.D.
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u sedmom stoljeću n.e.
13:05
It went for 1,114 miles,
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Protezao se na 1.780 kilometara,
13:09
linking Beijing
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povezujući Peking
13:11
with Hangzhou and Shanghai.
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s Hangzhou i Šangajem.
13:14
So there's a long history
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Postoji, dakle, duga povijest
13:16
of extraordinary state infrastructural projects
316
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izvanrednih državnih infrastrukturnih projekata
13:19
in China,
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u Kini,
13:21
which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today,
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koja nam, pretpostavljam, pomaže objasniti ono što vidimo danas,
13:24
which is something like the Three Gorges Dam
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nešto poput brane Tri Klanca (Three Gorges Dam)
13:26
and many other expressions
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i mnogih drugih primjera
13:28
of state competence
321
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kompetentnosti države
13:30
within China.
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u Kini.
13:32
So there we have three building blocks
323
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To su, eto, tri građevna bloka
13:35
for trying to understand the difference that is China --
324
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kojima pokušavamo shvatiti različitost koju predstavlja Kina --
13:38
the civilization-state,
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civilizacijska država,
13:41
the notion of race
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shvaćanje rase
13:43
and the nature of the state
327
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i priroda države
13:45
and its relationship to society.
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i njezin međuodnos s društvom.
13:48
And yet we still insist, by and large,
329
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Pa ipak i dalje ustrajemo, uglavnom,
13:51
in thinking that we can understand China
330
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u razmišljanju da Kinu možemo shvatiti
13:55
by simply drawing on Western experience,
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jednostavno koristeći zapadnjačko iskustvo,
13:58
looking at it through Western eyes,
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gledajući na nju zapadnjačkim očima,
14:01
using Western concepts.
333
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koristeći zapadnjačke koncepte.
14:03
If you want to know why
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Ako želite znati zašto
14:05
we unerringly seem to get China wrong --
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izgleda da nepogrešivo pogrešno shvaćamo Kinu --
14:08
our predictions about what's going to happen to China are incorrect --
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naše prognoze o tome što će se dogoditi u Kini su netočne --
14:11
this is the reason.
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to je razlog.
14:15
Unfortunately, I think,
338
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Na žalost, mislim,
14:17
I have to say that I think
339
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moram reći da mislim
14:20
attitude towards China
340
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da je stav prema Kini
14:22
is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality.
341
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mentalitet malog Zapadnjaka.
14:25
It's kind of arrogant.
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Na određeni način je arogantan.
14:27
It's arrogant in the sense
343
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Arogantan u smislu
14:29
that we think that we are best,
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da mislimo da smo najbolji,
14:31
and therefore we have the universal measure.
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i stoga imamo univerzalno mjerilo vrijednosti.
14:35
And secondly, it's ignorant.
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I drugo, to je stav neznanja.
14:37
We refuse to really address
347
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Odbijamo se doista posvetiti
14:40
the issue of difference.
348
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problemu različitosti.
14:42
You know, there's a very interesting passage
349
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Znate, ima jedan zanimljiv odlomak
14:44
in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian.
350
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u knjizi Paula Cohena, američkog povjesničara.
14:47
And Paul Cohen argues
351
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Paul Cohen argumentira
14:50
that the West thinks of itself
352
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da Zapad o sebi misli
14:54
as probably the most cosmopolitan
353
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kao o kulturi koja je
14:56
of all cultures.
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vjerojatno najkozmopolitskija od svih.
14:58
But it's not.
355
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Ali nije.
15:00
In many ways,
356
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U mnogim pogledima,
15:02
it's the most parochial,
357
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ona je zatvorenija,
15:04
because for 200 years,
358
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jer je tijekom 200 godina,
15:07
the West has been so dominant in the world
359
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Zapad bio toliko dominantan u svijetu
15:10
that it's not really needed
360
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da mu nije zapravo trebalo
15:12
to understand other cultures,
361
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razumjeti druge kulture,
15:15
other civilizations.
362
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druge civilizacije.
15:17
Because, at the end of the day,
363
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Zato što je mogao, kad se crta podvuče,
15:19
it could, if necessary by force,
364
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ako je bilo nužno,
15:22
get its own way.
365
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i silom provesti svoju volju.
15:24
Whereas those cultures --
366
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Dok su druge kulture --
15:26
virtually the rest of the world, in fact,
367
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doslovno ostatak svijeta, u stvari --
15:29
which have been in a far weaker position, vis-a-vis the West --
368
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koje su bile u slabijem položaju prema Zapadu,
15:32
have been thereby forced to understand the West,
369
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bile prisiljene razumjeti Zapad,
15:35
because of the West's presence in those societies.
370
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zbog prisustva Zapada u njihovim društvima.
15:38
And therefore, they are, as a result,
371
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I stoga je posljedica toga,
15:41
more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West.
372
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da su u mnogim pogledima više kozmopolitske od Zapada.
15:44
I mean, take the question of East Asia.
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Mislim, uzmite istočnu Aziju.
15:46
East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc. --
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Istočna Azija: Japan, Koreja, Kina, itd. --
15:49
a third of the world's population lives there.
375
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trećina svjetskog stanovništva živi ondje,
15:51
Now the largest economic region in the world.
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u danas najvećoj ekonomskoj regiji svijeta.
15:53
And I'll tell you now,
377
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I reći ću vam sada,
15:55
that East Asianers, people from East Asia,
378
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da istočni Azijci, ljudi iz istočne Azije,
15:57
are far more knowledgeable
379
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znaju puno više
15:59
about the West
380
959260
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o Zapadu
16:01
than the West is about East Asia.
381
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nego što Zapad zna o istočnoj Aziji.
16:05
Now this point is very germane, I'm afraid,
382
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Ta je činjenica, bojim se,
16:08
to the present.
383
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vrlo bitna za sadašnjost.
16:10
Because what's happening? Back to that chart at the beginning,
384
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Jer što se događa? Vratimo se na grafikon s početka --
16:13
the Goldman Sachs chart.
385
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grafikon Goldman Sachsa.
16:15
What is happening
386
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Što se događa je to
16:17
is that, very rapidly in historical terms,
387
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da se, vrlo brzo u povijesnim okvirima,
16:20
the world is being driven
388
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svijet kreće
16:23
and shaped,
389
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i oblikuje,
16:25
not by the old developed countries,
390
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ne od strane starih razvijenih zemalja,
16:27
but by the developing world.
391
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već od zemalja u razvoju.
16:29
We've seen this
392
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Vidjeli smo to
16:31
in terms of the G20
393
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na primjeru skupine G20 --
16:33
usurping very rapidly the position of the G7,
394
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3000
koja vrlo brzo preuzima položaj skupine G7,
16:36
or the G8.
395
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ili skupine G8.
16:40
And there are two consequences of this.
396
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A to ima dvije posljedice.
16:43
First, the West
397
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Prvo, Zapad
16:45
is rapidly losing
398
1005260
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brzo gubi
16:47
its influence in the world.
399
1007260
2000
svoj utjecaj u svijetu.
16:49
There was a dramatic illustration of this actually a year ago --
400
1009260
3000
Ima dramatičan primjer ovoga otprije godinu dana --
16:52
Copenhagen, climate change conference.
401
1012260
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Kopenhagen, konferencija o klimatskim promjenama.
16:54
Europe was not at the final negotiating table.
402
1014260
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Europa nije bila za posljednjim pregovaračkim stolom.
16:56
When did that last happen?
403
1016260
2000
Kada se tako što posljednji put dogodilo?
16:58
I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago.
404
1018260
3000
Kladio bih se da je to bilo prije 200 godina.
17:01
And that is what is going to happen in the future.
405
1021260
3000
To je ono što će se događati u budućnosti.
17:04
And the second implication
406
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A druga implikacija je ta
17:06
is that the world will inevitably, as a consequence,
407
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da će nam svijet neizbježno, kao posljedica ovoga,
17:09
become increasingly unfamiliar to us,
408
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postajati sve više i više nepoznat,
17:13
because it'll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories
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jer će ga oblikovati kulture i iskustva i povijest
17:16
that we are not really familiar with,
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koje nam zapravo nisu bliske,
17:19
or conversant with.
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niti o njima znamo.
17:21
And at last, I'm afraid -- take Europe;
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I napokon, bojim se – pogledajte Europu,
17:23
America is slightly different --
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Amerika je malo drugačija --
17:25
but Europeans by and large, I have to say,
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ali Europljani uglavnom, moram reći,
17:28
are ignorant,
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nisu upoznati,
17:31
are unaware
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niti svjesni
17:33
about the way the world is changing.
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načina na koji se svijet mijenja.
17:36
Some people -- I've got an English friend in China,
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Neki ljudi – imam prijatelja Engleza u Kini,
17:39
and he said, "The continent is sleepwalking into oblivion."
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koji kaže, „Kontinent u snu hoda prema zaboravu."
17:44
Well, maybe that's true,
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Pa, možda je to točno,
17:46
maybe that's an exaggeration.
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a možda je pretjerivanje.
17:48
But there's another problem which goes along with this --
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Ali tu je još jedan problem povezan s ovim --
17:51
that Europe is increasingly out of touch with the world --
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da Europa sve više gubi dodir sa svijetom --
17:54
and that is a sort of
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i to je na neki način
17:57
loss of a sense of the future.
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gubitak osjećaja budućnosti.
17:59
I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future
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Mislim, Europa je nekad upravljala budućnošću
18:02
in its confidence.
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u svom samopouzdanju.
18:04
Take the 19th century, for example.
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Pogledajte, na primjer, 19. stoljeće.
18:07
But this, alas, is no longer true.
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Ali ovo, avaj, nije više istina.
18:10
If you want to feel the future, if you want to taste the future,
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Ako želite osjetiti budućnost, ako želite okusiti budućnost,
18:13
try China -- there's old Confucius.
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probajte u Kini – tamo je stari Konfucije.
18:16
This is a railway station
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Ovo je željeznički kolodvor
18:18
the likes of which you've never seen before.
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kakav još nikada niste vidjeli.
18:20
It doesn't even look like a railway station.
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Čak i ne izgleda poput kolodvora.
18:22
This is the new [Wuhan] railway station
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Ovo je novi kolodvor Guangzhou
18:24
for the high-speed trains.
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za visokobrzinske vlakove.
18:26
China already has a bigger network
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Kina već ima veću željezničku mrežu
18:28
than any other country in the world
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od bilo koje zemlje svijeta
18:30
and will soon have more than all the rest of the world put together.
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i uskoro će imati veću od svih zemalja svijeta zajedno.
18:34
Or take this: now this is an idea,
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Ili pogledajte ovo: Ovo je samo ideja,
18:36
but it's an idea to be tried out shortly
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ali to je ideja koju će uskoro isprobati
18:39
in a suburb of Beijing.
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u predgrađu Pekinga.
18:41
Here you have a megabus,
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Ovdje vidite mega autobus,
18:44
on the upper deck carries about 2,000 people.
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na gornjoj platformi prima 2.000 ljudi.
18:47
It travels on rails
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Putuje po tračnicama
18:49
down a suburban road,
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na cesti u predgrađu,
18:51
and the cars travel underneath it.
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a automobili voze ispod njega.
18:54
And it does speeds of up to about 100 miles an hour.
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Postiže brzinu od oko 160 kilometara na sat.
18:57
Now this is the way things are going to move,
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Na ovaj način će se stvari odvijati,
19:00
because China has a very specific problem,
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jer Kina ima vrlo specifičan problem,
19:02
which is different from Europe
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koji je različit od problema u Europi
19:04
and different from the United States:
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i od problema u Sjedinjenim Državama.
19:06
China has huge numbers of people and no space.
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Kina ima ogroman broj ljudi, a nema prostora.
19:09
So this is a solution to a situation
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Pa je ovo rješenje za situaciju
19:11
where China's going to have
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u kojoj će Kina imati
19:13
many, many, many cities
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mnogo, mnogo, mnogo gradova
19:15
over 20 million people.
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s više od 20 milijuna stanovnika.
19:17
Okay, so how would I like to finish?
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OK, kako bih želio završiti?
19:20
Well, what should our attitude be
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Dakle, kakav bi naš stav trebao biti
19:23
towards this world
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prema svijetu
19:26
that we see
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koji se, kako vidimo,
19:28
very rapidly developing
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razvija vrlo brzo
19:30
before us?
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pred našim očima?
19:33
I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it.
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Mislim da će biti dobrih stvari i loših stvari u njemu.
19:36
But I want to argue, above all,
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Ali ono što želim iznijeti je, iznad svega,
19:38
a big-picture positive for this world.
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makro plan, pozitivan za taj svijet.
19:43
For 200 years,
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Tijekom 200 godina,
19:45
the world was essentially governed
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svijetom je, u suštini, upravljao
19:51
by a fragment of the human population.
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tek dio svjetskog stanovništva.
19:55
That's what Europe and North America represented.
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To je ono što su predstavljale Europa i sjeverna Amerika.
19:59
The arrival of countries
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Dolazak zemalja
20:01
like China and India --
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poput Kine i Indije --
20:03
between them 38 percent of the world's population --
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samo na njih dvije otpada 38 posto svjetskog stanovništva --
20:05
and others like Indonesia and Brazil and so on,
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i drugih, poput Indonezije, Brazila i tako dalje,
20:11
represent the most important single act
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predstavlja najvažniji pojedinačni čin
20:14
of democratization
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demokratizacije
20:16
in the last 200 years.
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u proteklih 200 godina.
20:18
Civilizations and cultures,
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Civilizacije i kulture,
20:20
which had been ignored, which had no voice,
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koje su bile ignorirane, koje nisu imale glasa,
20:23
which were not listened to, which were not known about,
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koje se nije slušalo, o kojima se nije znalo,
20:25
will have a different sort
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imat će drugačiju
20:27
of representation in this world.
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zastupljenost u tom svijetu.
20:30
As humanists, we must welcome, surely,
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Kao humanisti, svakako moramo pozdraviti
20:32
this transformation,
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ovu transformaciju.
20:34
and we will have to learn
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I morat ćemo učiti
20:36
about these civilizations.
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o tim civilizacijama.
20:38
This big ship here
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Na ovom velikom brodu ovdje
20:41
was the one sailed in by Zheng He
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plovio je Zheng He
20:43
in the early 15th century
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u ranom 15. stoljeću
20:45
on his great voyages
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na svojim velikim putovanjima
20:47
around the South China Sea, the East China Sea
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po Južnokineskom moru, Istočnokineskom moru
20:50
and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa.
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i poprijeko Indijskog oceana prema istočnoj Africi.
20:53
The little boat in front of it
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Brodić ispred njega
20:57
was the one in which, 80 years later,
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je onaj na kojem je, 80 godina kasnije,
20:59
Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic.
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Christopher Columbus preplovio Atlantik.
21:02
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
21:04
Or, look carefully
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Ili, pogledajte pažljivo
21:06
at this silk scroll
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ovaj svileni svitak
21:08
made by ZhuZhou
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kojega je načinio ZhuZhou
21:11
in 1368.
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godine 1368.
21:14
I think they're playing golf.
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Mislim da igraju golf.
21:16
Christ, the Chinese even invented golf.
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Kriste, Kinezi su čak i golf izmislili.
21:19
Welcome to the future. Thank you.
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Dobrodošli u budućnost. Hvala vam.
21:22
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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