Understanding the rise of China | Martin Jacques

2,401,560 views ・ 2011-01-24

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翻译人员: Angelia King 校对人员: Xu Jiang
00:15
The world is changing
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世界正在
00:17
with really remarkable speed.
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以惊人的速度飞快得改变着。
00:20
If you look at the chart at the top here,
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如果你看着这上方的图表,
00:22
you'll see that in 2025,
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你会看到在2025年,
00:24
these Goldman Sachs projections
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高盛投资公司的这些预测
00:26
suggest that the Chinese economy
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表明中国经济规模
00:28
will be almost the same size as the American economy.
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会和美国经济几乎相当。
00:31
And if you look at the chart
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如果看
00:34
for 2050,
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2050年的图表,
00:36
it's projected that the Chinese economy
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预测表明中国经济规模
00:39
will be twice the size of the American economy,
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将会是美国经济的两倍,
00:42
and the Indian economy will be almost the same size
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印度的经济规模将会和
00:44
as the American economy.
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美国的经济几乎持平。
00:47
And we should bear in mind here
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在这里,我们应该记住
00:49
that these projections were drawn up
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这些预测是在
00:51
before the Western financial crisis.
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西方经济危机之前做出的。
00:54
A couple of weeks ago,
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几周前,
00:56
I was looking at the latest projection
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我查看法国巴黎银行的
00:58
by BNP Paribas
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最近预测,
01:00
for when China
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中国在什么时候
01:03
will have a larger economy
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会超越美国经济,
01:05
than the United States.
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成为第一大经济体。
01:07
Goldman Sachs projected 2027.
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高盛投资公司预测2027年。
01:11
The post-crisis projection
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危机过后的预测
01:14
is 2020.
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是2020年。
01:17
That's just a decade away.
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这也不过只有10年的光景。
01:19
China is going to change the world
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中国将在两个基本方面上
01:23
in two fundamental respects.
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改变世界。
01:26
First of all,
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首先,
01:28
it's a huge developing country
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中国是一个幅员广大的发展中国家
01:30
with a population of 1.3 billion people,
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它有13亿人口,
01:34
which has been growing for over 30 years
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在过去30年间
01:37
at around 10 percent a year.
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它以每年10%左右的经济增长率发展。
01:39
And within a decade,
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在未来10年间,
01:41
it will have the largest economy in the world.
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它会有世界上最大的经济体。
01:45
Never before in the modern era
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在世界现代史中,以前从来都是发达国家
01:48
has the largest economy in the world
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还没有一个发展中的国家
01:51
been that of a developing country,
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变成了世界上
01:53
rather than a developed country.
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最大的经济体。
01:57
Secondly,
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第二,
01:59
for the first time in the modern era,
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在现代史中第一次
02:01
the dominant country in the world --
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在世界上,
02:03
which I think is what China will become --
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我认为中国会变成大国,
02:06
will be not from the West
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它有别于西方国家
02:09
and from very, very different civilizational roots.
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而它是从非常,非常不同的文明根源发展起的大国。
02:13
Now, I know it's a widespread assumption in the West
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现在我知道西方国家有一个普遍的假设
02:17
that as countries modernize,
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随着国家的现代化,
02:20
they also westernize.
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它们也会西方化。
02:22
This is an illusion.
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这是个幻想。
02:24
It's an assumption that modernity
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这是对于现代化
02:26
is a product simply of competition, markets and technology.
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仅仅是竞争,市场和技术的一种产品的假设。
02:29
It is not. It is also shaped equally
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中国的现代化不仅仅是这样的,也是由
02:31
by history and culture.
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历史和文化共同作用下形成的。
02:33
China is not like the West,
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中国不同于西方国家,
02:36
and it will not become like the West.
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它也不会变成和西方国家一样。
02:39
It will remain in very fundamental respects
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它会在非常基础的方面表现得
02:41
very different.
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非常不同。
02:43
Now the big question here is obviously,
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现在这的大问题明显是,
02:46
how do we make sense of China?
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我们该怎样认识中国?
02:48
How do we try to understand what China is?
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我们该怎样了解中国?
02:50
And the problem we have in the West at the moment, by and large,
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在西方我们现在的问题大体上
02:53
is that the conventional approach
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是传统的方法
02:55
is that we understand it really in Western terms,
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我们用西方的术语,用西方的观点来了解
02:57
using Western ideas.
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真正的中国。
03:00
We can't.
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我们不能这样。
03:02
Now I want to offer you
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现在我想给大家
03:04
three building blocks
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3个基础理由
03:06
for trying to understand what China is like,
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来试着了解中国
03:09
just as a beginning.
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只是起个头。
03:11
The first is this:
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首先是这个,
03:13
that China is not really a nation-state.
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中国事实上不是一个民族国家。
03:16
Okay, it's called itself a nation-state
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在过去的几百年,中国自称是一个
03:18
for the last hundred years,
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民族国家。
03:20
but everyone who knows anything about China
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但对中国很了解的人
03:22
knows it's a lot older than this.
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知道中国比这历史要悠久得多。
03:24
This was what China looked like with the victory of the Qin Dynasty
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中国是
03:27
in 221 B.C. at the end of the warring-state period --
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在公元前221年也就在战国时期的末期从秦朝一统江山起,
03:30
the birth of modern China.
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现代中国就诞生了。
03:32
And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China.
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你可以看到现代中国的边界线。
03:35
Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty,
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随之其后的汉朝,
03:37
still 2,000 years ago.
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还在2000年前。
03:39
And you can see already it occupies
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你可以看出中国已经占据
03:41
most of what we now know as Eastern China,
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我们现在所知的华东地区的大部分,
03:43
which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then
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绝大多数的中国人当时在那儿居住
03:46
and live now.
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现在还生活在那儿。
03:48
Now what is extraordinary about this
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这点非同寻常的
03:50
is, what gives China its sense of being China,
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是,它赋予了中国做为中国的意义,
03:53
what gives the Chinese
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也赋予了中国人
03:56
the sense of what it is to be Chinese,
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成为他们中国人的意义,
03:59
comes not from the last hundred years,
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这不是从过去几百年,
04:01
not from the nation-state period,
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也不是从民族国家开始形成这种认识,
04:03
which is what happened in the West,
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这跟西方发展也不一样,
04:06
but from the period, if you like,
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而这一阶段,如果你喜欢,
04:08
of the civilization-state.
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可以说是文明国家的阶段。
04:10
I'm thinking here, for example,
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我想到这儿,举个例子吧,
04:13
of customs like ancestral worship,
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传统习惯例如:对祖先的崇拜,
04:16
of a very distinctive notion of the state,
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非常有特色的国家概念,
04:19
likewise, a very distinctive notion of the family,
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诸如此类的,非常有特色的家庭观念,
04:22
social relationships like guanxi,
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社交关系如关系,
04:24
Confucian values and so on.
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儒家价值观等等。
04:26
These are all things that come
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所有这些事都来自于
04:28
from the period of the civilization-state.
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文明国家的阶段。
04:31
In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in the world,
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换言之,中国不像世界上的西方国家和多数国家,
04:34
is shaped by its sense of civilization,
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它由它自身文明所形成,
04:37
its existence as a civilization-state,
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它是作为一个文明国家
04:39
rather than as a nation-state.
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而不是一个民族国家而存在的。
04:41
And there's one other thing to add to this, and that is this:
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还有另一件事要加进来,这就是:
04:44
Of course we know China's big, huge,
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当然我们知道中国是幅员辽阔,人口众多,
04:46
demographically and geographically,
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在人口统计和地理上都是首屈一指,
04:49
with a population of 1.3 billion people.
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它有13亿人口。
04:52
What we often aren't really aware of
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我们常常没关注的
04:55
is the fact
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事实是
04:57
that China is extremely diverse
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中国也是极其多样化
04:59
and very pluralistic,
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和非常多元化的,
05:01
and in many ways very decentralized.
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在许多方面甚至权力是非常分散化的。
05:03
You can't run a place on this scale simply from Beijing,
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尽管我们认为不能仅从北京中央政府来管理这庞大规模的国家,
05:06
even though we think this to be the case.
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我们以为会是这样,
05:09
It's never been the case.
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但从来都不是这样。
05:13
So this is China, a civilization-state,
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所以这才是中国,一个文明国家,
05:15
rather than a nation-state.
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而不是一个民族国家。
05:17
And what does it mean?
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那这意味着什么呢?
05:19
Well, I think it has all sorts of profound implications.
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那么我想这有很多种深刻的含义。
05:21
I'll give you two quick ones.
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我会给你两个简短介绍。
05:23
The first is that
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第一个是
05:25
the most important political value for the Chinese
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中国人最主要的政治价值观
05:29
is unity,
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是统一,
05:31
is the maintenance
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用来维护
05:33
of Chinese civilization.
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中华文明。
05:35
You know, 2,000 years ago, Europe:
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大家知道,2000年前,欧洲:
05:38
breakdown -- the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire.
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灭亡,神圣罗马帝国[罗马帝国]的分裂。
05:41
It divided, and it's remained divided ever since.
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从那时到现在,它不断地分裂。
05:44
China, over the same time period,
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在同一时间段,中国
05:46
went in exactly the opposite direction,
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却有着完全相反的方向,
05:48
very painfully holding this huge civilization,
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非常艰难地维系着这种强大的统一文明,
05:51
civilization-state, together.
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把文明国家统一在一起。
05:54
The second
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第二
05:56
is maybe more prosaic,
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或许是更一般的例子
05:58
which is Hong Kong.
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香港的例子。
06:00
Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong
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大家是否记得香港
06:03
by Britain to China in 1997?
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在1997年从英国政府转交给中国政府?
06:05
You may remember
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大家能记得
06:07
what the Chinese constitutional proposition was.
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中国宪法体制是什么吗?
06:09
One country, two systems.
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一国两制。
06:11
And I'll lay a wager
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我会打赌
06:13
that barely anyone in the West believed them.
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在西方没有人会信这一套。
06:15
"Window dressing.
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“装饰门面。
06:17
When China gets its hands on Hong Kong,
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当中国政府接手香港,
06:19
that won't be the case."
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这不可能。”
06:21
Thirteen years on,
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13年来,
06:23
the political and legal system in Hong Kong
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香港现在的政治和司法体制
06:25
is as different now as it was in 1997.
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和1997年一样,但和中国大陆的有所不同。
06:28
We were wrong. Why were we wrong?
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我们都错了,为什么我们理解错了呢?
06:31
We were wrong because we thought, naturally enough,
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我们错是因为我们理所当然地
06:34
in nation-state ways.
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以民族国家角度思考。
06:36
Think of German unification, 1990.
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想想1990年德国统一。
06:38
What happened?
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发生什么了?
06:40
Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West.
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基本上东德被西德吞噬。
06:42
One nation, one system.
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一个国家,一个体制。
06:44
That is the nation-state mentality.
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这是民族国家的心态。
06:47
But you can't run a country like China,
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但是你不能用此来管理一个像中国这样的,
06:50
a civilization-state,
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一个文明国家,
06:52
on the basis of one civilization, one system.
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它建立在一种文明,一个体制上。
06:55
It doesn't work.
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这行不通。
06:57
So actually the response of China
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的确中国
07:00
to the question of Hong Kong --
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在香港问题上的回应
07:02
as it will be to the question of Taiwan --
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也是在台湾问题上的回应,
07:04
was a natural response:
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它是一个很自然的回应:
07:06
one civilization, many systems.
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一种文明,多种体制。
07:09
Let me offer you another building block
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让我来说另一个基础理由
07:11
to try and understand China --
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来试着了解中国
07:13
maybe not sort of a comfortable one.
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这或许是一个让人不舒服的理由。
07:16
The Chinese have a very, very different
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中国与其他大多数国家对
07:18
conception of race
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民族的概念
07:20
to most other countries.
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有非常,非常不同的理解。
07:23
Do you know,
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大家知道,
07:25
of the 1.3 billion Chinese,
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13亿中国人,
07:28
over 90 percent of them
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超过90%的中国人
07:30
think they belong to the same race,
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认为他们属于同一个民族,
07:33
the Han?
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汉族。
07:35
Now, this is completely different
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目前这与
07:37
from the world's [other] most populous countries.
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世界上其它人口众多的国家截然相反。
07:40
India, the United States,
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印度,美国,
07:42
Indonesia, Brazil --
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印度尼西亚,巴西,
07:45
all of them are multiracial.
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他们都是多民族的。
07:48
The Chinese don't feel like that.
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中国人没有感到过多民族。
07:51
China is only multiracial
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中国仅是
07:53
really at the margins.
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在边界线上有多种少数民族的人。
07:56
So the question is, why?
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那问题是,为什么?
07:58
Well the reason, I think, essentially
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好吧,我认为实质上,原因
08:00
is, again, back to the civilization-state.
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得再次追溯到这文明国家。
08:03
A history of at least 2,000 years,
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至少在2000年的历史长河中,
08:06
a history of conquest, occupation,
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征服,占领,
08:08
absorption, assimilation and so on,
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合并,同化等的历史
08:10
led to the process by which,
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随着时间的推移导致了
08:12
over time, this notion of the Han emerged --
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汉民族这概念的形成过程
08:15
of course, nurtured
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当然,这概念也孕育了
08:17
by a growing and very powerful sense
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增强了汉文化认同感
08:20
of cultural identity.
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也使其变得非常强大,具有深远意义。
08:23
Now the great advantage of this historical experience
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现在这历史经验的巨大优势
08:26
has been that, without the Han,
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呈现出来,没有汉民族,
08:30
China could never have held together.
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中国永远不可能连为一体。
08:32
The Han identity has been the cement
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汉民族文化认同一直
08:35
which has held this country together.
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把这个国家粘合在一起。
08:38
The great disadvantage of it
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它的巨大的劣势
08:40
is that the Han have a very weak conception
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是汉民族对文化差异
08:42
of cultural difference.
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有很少的认知概念。
08:44
They really believe
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他们真正相信
08:47
in their own superiority,
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他们自身汉族文化的优越性,
08:49
and they are disrespectful
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他们不尊重
08:51
of those who are not.
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那些不同民族的差异性。
08:53
Hence their attitude, for example,
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因此, 举个例子,比如他们对待
08:55
to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans.
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回族和藏族的态度。
08:59
Or let me give you my third building block,
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让我给出第三个基础理由,
09:01
the Chinese state.
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中国式的国家。
09:03
Now the relationship
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现在在中国
09:05
between the state and society in China
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国家和社会间的关系
09:08
is very different from that in the West.
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非常不同于西方的那种关系。
09:12
Now we in the West
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在西方我们
09:14
overwhelmingly seem to think -- in these days at least --
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绝大多数人似乎认为--至少在最近
09:16
that the authority and legitimacy of the state
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国家的权威和合法性
09:20
is a function of democracy.
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是民主的一个功能。
09:23
The problem with this proposition
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有关这问题
09:25
is that the Chinese state
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是中国这个国家
09:29
enjoys more legitimacy
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对中国人民享有更多合法性
09:31
and more authority
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和更多权威性
09:33
amongst the Chinese
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09:36
than is true
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比起
09:38
with any Western state.
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任何西方国家,它都是事实。
09:42
And the reason for this
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这个的原因
09:44
is because --
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是因为
09:46
well, there are two reasons, I think.
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我认为有两个理由。
09:48
And it's obviously got nothing to do with democracy,
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中国很明显与民主无关,
09:50
because in our terms the Chinese certainly don't have a democracy.
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因为依我们来看,中国完全称不上是民主。
09:53
And the reason for this is,
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这个理由是,
09:55
firstly, because the state in China
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首先,因为在中国,国家
09:58
is given a very special --
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是一个非常特别有所指的,
10:01
it enjoys a very special significance
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它享有一个非常特别的意义
10:03
as the representative,
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作为中华文明的代表,
10:05
the embodiment and the guardian
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体现
10:08
of Chinese civilization,
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和捍卫者,
10:10
of the civilization-state.
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也是代表中国国家的代表,化身和捍卫者。
10:13
This is as close as China gets
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这也接近中国有种
10:15
to a kind of spiritual role.
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精神象征的作用。
10:19
And the second reason is because,
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第二个理由是因为,
10:21
whereas in Europe
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反之在欧洲,
10:23
and North America,
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北美洲,
10:25
the state's power is continuously challenged --
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国家的权力不断受到挑战。
10:28
I mean in the European tradition,
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我指在欧洲历史传统,
10:30
historically against the church,
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历史上反对教堂,
10:32
against other sectors of the aristocracy,
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反对其它各种贵族阶级,
10:34
against merchants and so on --
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反对商人等等
10:36
for 1,000 years,
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有1000年历史,
10:38
the power of the Chinese state
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中国国家的权力
10:40
has not been challenged.
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从来没被挑战过。
10:42
It's had no serious rivals.
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它没有真正的对手可抗衡。
10:46
So you can see
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所以大家可以看到
10:48
that the way in which power has been constructed in China
256
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在中国已经建立的权力的方式
10:52
is very different from our experience
257
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与我们西方历史的经验
10:54
in Western history.
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非常不同。
10:57
The result, by the way,
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顺便提一下,结果
10:59
is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state.
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是中国人看待国家有非常不同的视角。
11:04
Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder,
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鉴于我们倾向于把国家看作是一个入侵者,
11:07
a stranger,
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一个陌生人,
11:10
certainly an organ
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当然是一个组织
11:12
whose powers need to be limited
264
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它的权力需要被限制
11:15
or defined and constrained,
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或被界定和约束,
11:17
the Chinese don't see the state like that at all.
266
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中国人可一点都不这样看待国家。
11:19
The Chinese view the state
267
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中国人视国家
11:22
as an intimate -- not just as an intimate actually,
268
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作为一个亲密的朋友,也不止是作为一个密友,
11:25
as a member of the family --
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作为家庭里的一员,
11:27
not just in fact as a member of the family,
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事实上也不止是家里一员,
11:29
but as the head of the family,
271
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而是一家之长,
11:31
the patriarch of the family.
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家庭里的家长。
11:33
This is the Chinese view of the state --
273
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这是从中国视角来看待国家,
11:36
very, very different to ours.
274
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和我们的截然不同。
11:38
It's embedded in society in a different kind of way
275
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根植于中国社会的案例
11:41
to what is the case
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与我们在西方的社会例证
11:43
in the West.
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是完全不同的。
11:45
And I would suggest to you that actually what we are dealing with here,
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我给大家的建议是我们的确要了解
11:48
in the Chinese context,
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在中国背景下,
11:51
is a new kind of paradigm,
280
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这是一种新的范例,
11:53
which is different from anything
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它与
11:55
we've had to think about in the past.
282
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我们过去曾想过的范例是不同的。
11:59
Know that China believes in the market and the state.
283
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要知道中国人相信市场和国有。
12:02
I mean, Adam Smith,
284
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2000
我指,亚当·斯密
12:04
already writing in the late 18th century, said,
285
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3000
在18世纪晚期已经著书,说过,
12:07
"The Chinese market is larger and more developed
286
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“中国市场比起欧洲的任何一个市场,
12:09
and more sophisticated
287
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它都是较大的,较为发达的
12:11
than anything in Europe."
288
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也是较为复杂的。”
12:13
And, apart from the Mao period,
289
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除了毛泽东时代,
12:15
that has remained more or less the case ever since.
290
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中国市场大体是如上的例证。
12:17
But this is combined
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但这也是
12:19
with an extremely strong and ubiquitous state.
292
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在一个极强大和无处不在的国家做后盾。
12:23
The state is everywhere in China.
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国家就是中国的一切。
12:25
I mean, it's leading firms --
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我指,它引领着公司,
12:27
many of them are still publicly owned.
295
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他们中的许多公司还是国企所有。
12:30
Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo,
296
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私有企业,不管它们有多大,像Lenovo联想,
12:33
depend in many ways on state patronage.
297
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2000
在很多方面也依赖于国家的资助。
12:35
Targets for the economy and so on
298
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国家设置了经济目标
12:37
are set by the state.
299
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2000
等等。
12:39
And the state, of course, its authority flows into lots of other areas --
300
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2000
当然,国家的权威也穿插在许多其他方面
12:41
as we are familiar with --
301
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比如我们所述熟悉的
12:43
with something like the one-child policy.
302
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独生子女政策。
12:45
Moreover, this is a very old state tradition,
303
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此外,中国是一个非常古老的传统国家,
12:48
a very old tradition of statecraft.
304
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有一个非常古老传统的治国纲领。
12:50
I mean, if you want an illustration of this,
305
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如果你想搞明白这样的例子,
12:53
the Great Wall is one.
306
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长城就是其中一个。
12:55
But this is another, this is the Grand Canal,
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但这有另一个,这是(京杭)大运河,
12:57
which was constructed in the first instance
308
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它起初是
12:59
in the fifth century B.C.
309
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在公元前5世纪被建造的
13:01
and was finally completed
310
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在公元7世纪时
13:03
in the seventh century A.D.
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它最终竣工。
13:05
It went for 1,114 miles,
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它有1114英里,
13:09
linking Beijing
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链接北京
13:11
with Hangzhou and Shanghai.
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到杭州和上海。
13:14
So there's a long history
315
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2000
在中国,
13:16
of extraordinary state infrastructural projects
316
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3000
非凡的国家大型基础建设的历史
13:19
in China,
317
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2000
由来已久,
13:21
which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today,
318
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3000
我认为这也帮助我们来了解我们今天所看到的,
13:24
which is something like the Three Gorges Dam
319
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例如三峡大坝工程
13:26
and many other expressions
320
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和许多中国其它的
13:28
of state competence
321
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国家工程
13:30
within China.
322
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业绩。
13:32
So there we have three building blocks
323
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3000
所以这3个组成部分
13:35
for trying to understand the difference that is China --
324
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3000
让我们了解中国的不同--
13:38
the civilization-state,
325
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3000
文明国家,
13:41
the notion of race
326
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民族的概念
13:43
and the nature of the state
327
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和国家的属性
13:45
and its relationship to society.
328
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以及它和社会的关系。
13:48
And yet we still insist, by and large,
329
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总地说来,我们还一直坚持
13:51
in thinking that we can understand China
330
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4000
认为我们仅从西方经验的视角
13:55
by simply drawing on Western experience,
331
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3000
就能理解中国
13:58
looking at it through Western eyes,
332
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3000
通过西方人视角
14:01
using Western concepts.
333
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2000
使用西方理念来看透中国。
14:03
If you want to know why
334
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如果你想知道
14:05
we unerringly seem to get China wrong --
335
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3000
我们为什么对中国有错误的认识
14:08
our predictions about what's going to happen to China are incorrect --
336
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3000
我们对在中国发生的事情的预言为什么也是不正确的
14:11
this is the reason.
337
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4000
这上所述就是原因。
14:15
Unfortunately, I think,
338
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2000
不幸的是我认为,
14:17
I have to say that I think
339
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3000
我得说我认为
14:20
attitude towards China
340
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对中国的态度
14:22
is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality.
341
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3000
是西方人的一种心态做崇。
14:25
It's kind of arrogant.
342
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2000
这是傲慢的心态。
14:27
It's arrogant in the sense
343
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就傲慢的心态而言
14:29
that we think that we are best,
344
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我们认为我们是最好的,
14:31
and therefore we have the universal measure.
345
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3000
因此我们有普世的评判标准。
14:35
And secondly, it's ignorant.
346
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其次,这是无知的。
14:37
We refuse to really address
347
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我们拒绝真正承认
14:40
the issue of difference.
348
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2000
问题的不同面。
14:42
You know, there's a very interesting passage
349
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2000
大家知道,美国历史学家保罗·柯文(Paul Cohen)的书里(《在中国发现历史——中国中心观在美国的兴起》)
14:44
in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian.
350
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3000
有一段非常有意思的话。
14:47
And Paul Cohen argues
351
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保罗·柯文讲到
14:50
that the West thinks of itself
352
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4000
西方认为它自身文化
14:54
as probably the most cosmopolitan
353
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2000
好比是所有文化里最具有国际化的
14:56
of all cultures.
354
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2000
文化。
14:58
But it's not.
355
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2000
但事实不是。
15:00
In many ways,
356
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2000
在许多方面,
15:02
it's the most parochial,
357
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2000
它是最狭隘的,
15:04
because for 200 years,
358
904260
3000
因为200年来,
15:07
the West has been so dominant in the world
359
907260
3000
西方一直主宰世界
15:10
that it's not really needed
360
910260
2000
它不必
15:12
to understand other cultures,
361
912260
3000
去了解其他文化,
15:15
other civilizations.
362
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2000
其他文明。
15:17
Because, at the end of the day,
363
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2000
因为,到头来,
15:19
it could, if necessary by force,
364
919260
3000
必要时可动武,
15:22
get its own way.
365
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2000
彰显其自身文化。
15:24
Whereas those cultures --
366
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2000
反之这些其它文化
15:26
virtually the rest of the world, in fact,
367
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3000
几乎在世界其它地区的,事实上,
15:29
which have been in a far weaker position, vis-a-vis the West --
368
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3000
面对西方文化,它们一直处于相对较弱的地位,
15:32
have been thereby forced to understand the West,
369
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3000
从而也一直被迫来了解西方文化,
15:35
because of the West's presence in those societies.
370
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3000
因为西方文化在这些社会有影响力的原因。
15:38
And therefore, they are, as a result,
371
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3000
所以,结果是它们
15:41
more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West.
372
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3000
在许多方面比起西方更国际化。
15:44
I mean, take the question of East Asia.
373
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我们来谈谈东亚的问题。
15:46
East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc. --
374
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3000
东亚:日本,韩国,中国等等--
15:49
a third of the world's population lives there.
375
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2000
世界上三分之一人口住在那边,
15:51
Now the largest economic region in the world.
376
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2000
现在是全球最大的经济区域。
15:53
And I'll tell you now,
377
953260
2000
现在我会告诉你,
15:55
that East Asianers, people from East Asia,
378
955260
2000
东亚人,东亚的人们,
15:57
are far more knowledgeable
379
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2000
对西方的认识程度
15:59
about the West
380
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2000
比起
16:01
than the West is about East Asia.
381
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4000
西方国家对东亚的认识程度要深的多。
16:05
Now this point is very germane, I'm afraid,
382
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3000
现在我恐怕这个观点到现在还是非常
16:08
to the present.
383
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2000
有影响的。
16:10
Because what's happening? Back to that chart at the beginning,
384
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3000
因为发生的变化吗?回到开始的图表--
16:13
the Goldman Sachs chart.
385
973260
2000
高盛投资公司的图表。
16:15
What is happening
386
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2000
当前发生的
16:17
is that, very rapidly in historical terms,
387
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3000
是,在历史上非常迅速,
16:20
the world is being driven
388
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3000
世界不是
16:23
and shaped,
389
983260
2000
被老旧的发达国家
16:25
not by the old developed countries,
390
985260
2000
所驱动和塑造,
16:27
but by the developing world.
391
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2000
而是被发展中新兴国家。
16:29
We've seen this
392
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2000
我们看到这个
16:31
in terms of the G20
393
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2000
G20二十国集团
16:33
usurping very rapidly the position of the G7,
394
993260
3000
它非常迅速地抢占G7七国集团
16:36
or the G8.
395
996260
3000
或者G8八国集团的地位。
16:40
And there are two consequences of this.
396
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同时这有两个结果。
16:43
First, the West
397
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2000
第一,西方
16:45
is rapidly losing
398
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2000
正快速地失去
16:47
its influence in the world.
399
1007260
2000
它在全球的影响。
16:49
There was a dramatic illustration of this actually a year ago --
400
1009260
3000
一年前就有一个戏剧性的例证证明这个观点
16:52
Copenhagen, climate change conference.
401
1012260
2000
哥本哈根,气候变化会议。
16:54
Europe was not at the final negotiating table.
402
1014260
2000
欧洲没有出现在最后讨论谈判桌上。
16:56
When did that last happen?
403
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2000
上次欧洲置之事外是在什么时候?
16:58
I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago.
404
1018260
3000
我敢打赌约在200年前也发生同样的事。
17:01
And that is what is going to happen in the future.
405
1021260
3000
在未来这还会发生。
17:04
And the second implication
406
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2000
第二个含义
17:06
is that the world will inevitably, as a consequence,
407
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3000
是世界将不可避免地
17:09
become increasingly unfamiliar to us,
408
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4000
急剧变化,对我们来说很陌生,
17:13
because it'll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories
409
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3000
因为世界被我们所不熟悉的或者不精通的文化,
17:16
that we are not really familiar with,
410
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3000
经验和历史
17:19
or conversant with.
411
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2000
所重塑。
17:21
And at last, I'm afraid -- take Europe;
412
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2000
最后,我恐怕,拿欧洲来说,
17:23
America is slightly different --
413
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2000
美国是有点不同的
17:25
but Europeans by and large, I have to say,
414
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3000
但大体上,我得说欧洲人
17:28
are ignorant,
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是无知的,
17:31
are unaware
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他们没有意识到
17:33
about the way the world is changing.
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世界上正在发生的改变。
17:36
Some people -- I've got an English friend in China,
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有人,我有一个在中国的英国朋友,
17:39
and he said, "The continent is sleepwalking into oblivion."
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他说,“旧大陆在梦游似的会被遗忘。”
17:44
Well, maybe that's true,
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好吧,恐怕是对的,
17:46
maybe that's an exaggeration.
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恐怕这有点夸张。
17:48
But there's another problem which goes along with this --
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但另一问题随之产生
17:51
that Europe is increasingly out of touch with the world --
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欧洲正在日益与世界脱节
17:54
and that is a sort of
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这是一种
17:57
loss of a sense of the future.
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对未来感的缺失。
17:59
I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future
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当然,我指欧洲曾自信地
18:02
in its confidence.
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引领未来。
18:04
Take the 19th century, for example.
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拿19世纪来举例。
18:07
But this, alas, is no longer true.
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唉,但这已经风光不在。
18:10
If you want to feel the future, if you want to taste the future,
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如果你想感知未来,如果你想感触未来,
18:13
try China -- there's old Confucius.
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看看中国,这是古代的孔子。
18:16
This is a railway station
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这是一个火车站
18:18
the likes of which you've never seen before.
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这是你以前从未看到过的。
18:20
It doesn't even look like a railway station.
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它看上去不像是火车站。
18:22
This is the new [Wuhan] railway station
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这是为了高速列车行驶而新建的
18:24
for the high-speed trains.
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广州火车站。
18:26
China already has a bigger network
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中国已经比起全球其他国家
18:28
than any other country in the world
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有更多的铁路网
18:30
and will soon have more than all the rest of the world put together.
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不久就会超过全球铁路网总和。
18:34
Or take this: now this is an idea,
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举个例子:现在这是个想法,
18:36
but it's an idea to be tried out shortly
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但这想法不久就会
18:39
in a suburb of Beijing.
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在北京郊区实现。
18:41
Here you have a megabus,
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这儿会有一辆超级公交,
18:44
on the upper deck carries about 2,000 people.
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在公交上层会承载2000人。
18:47
It travels on rails
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它会沿着郊区的路上轨道
18:49
down a suburban road,
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行驶,
18:51
and the cars travel underneath it.
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车辆可以在它下面穿行。
18:54
And it does speeds of up to about 100 miles an hour.
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它的时速可达每小时约100英里。
18:57
Now this is the way things are going to move,
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现在这个就是未来交通方式,
19:00
because China has a very specific problem,
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因为中国有非常具体问题,
19:02
which is different from Europe
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它有别于欧洲
19:04
and different from the United States:
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和美国。
19:06
China has huge numbers of people and no space.
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中国人口众多,但很少空间。
19:09
So this is a solution to a situation
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所以当
19:11
where China's going to have
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中国将会有
19:13
many, many, many cities
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越来越多的城市
19:15
over 20 million people.
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超过2000万人口时,这会是应对这种情况的解决方案。
19:17
Okay, so how would I like to finish?
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好吧,那么我会怎样来做结论呢?
19:20
Well, what should our attitude be
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那么,我们应该以怎样态度
19:23
towards this world
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来面对这个
19:26
that we see
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呈现在我们面前
19:28
very rapidly developing
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飞速发展的
19:30
before us?
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世界?
19:33
I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it.
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我认为关于此事,这会有好的方面也会有坏的方面。
19:36
But I want to argue, above all,
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但首先,我想指出
19:38
a big-picture positive for this world.
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这世界所展现的是一幅积极正面的蓝图。
19:43
For 200 years,
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200年来,
19:45
the world was essentially governed
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世界基本上
19:51
by a fragment of the human population.
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是被人类的一部分人所管辖。
19:55
That's what Europe and North America represented.
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这是以欧洲和北美为代表的。
19:59
The arrival of countries
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新兴国家的崛起
20:01
like China and India --
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像中国和印度
20:03
between them 38 percent of the world's population --
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它们占世界人口的百分之三十八
20:05
and others like Indonesia and Brazil and so on,
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和其他国家如印度尼西亚和巴西等等,
20:11
represent the most important single act
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他们代表了在过去200年间最重要的人类活动
20:14
of democratization
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民主化
20:16
in the last 200 years.
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进程。
20:18
Civilizations and cultures,
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曾被
20:20
which had been ignored, which had no voice,
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忽视,没有发言权的文明和文化,
20:23
which were not listened to, which were not known about,
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人们对此不了解,没听说过的文明和文化,
20:25
will have a different sort
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它们将会在这世界上以与众不同地
20:27
of representation in this world.
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声音代言它们自身。
20:30
As humanists, we must welcome, surely,
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作为人道主义者,我们必定要欢迎
20:32
this transformation,
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这种转型。
20:34
and we will have to learn
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我们还得学习
20:36
about these civilizations.
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这些文明。
20:38
This big ship here
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这儿的大船
20:41
was the one sailed in by Zheng He
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是在15世纪早期郑和
20:43
in the early 15th century
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下西洋时
20:45
on his great voyages
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航行的船,
20:47
around the South China Sea, the East China Sea
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它穿过中国东海,南海
20:50
and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa.
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然后穿行印度洋到达东非。
20:53
The little boat in front of it
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这前面的小船
20:57
was the one in which, 80 years later,
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是80年后,
20:59
Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic.
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克里斯托弗·哥伦布穿行大西洋的船只。
21:02
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
21:04
Or, look carefully
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或仔细看看
21:06
at this silk scroll
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这幅
21:08
made by ZhuZhou
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ZhuZhou朱周(音译)
21:11
in 1368.
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在1368年创作的绢轴国画。
21:14
I think they're playing golf.
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我认为他们在打高尔夫。
21:16
Christ, the Chinese even invented golf.
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上帝啊,竟然是中国人发明了高尔夫球。
21:19
Welcome to the future. Thank you.
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欢迎来到未来。谢谢。
21:22
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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