Understanding the rise of China | Martin Jacques

2,400,404 views ・ 2011-01-24

TED


请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。

翻译人员: Angelia King 校对人员: Xu Jiang
00:15
The world is changing
0
15260
2000
世界正在
00:17
with really remarkable speed.
1
17260
3000
以惊人的速度飞快得改变着。
00:20
If you look at the chart at the top here,
2
20260
2000
如果你看着这上方的图表,
00:22
you'll see that in 2025,
3
22260
2000
你会看到在2025年,
00:24
these Goldman Sachs projections
4
24260
2000
高盛投资公司的这些预测
00:26
suggest that the Chinese economy
5
26260
2000
表明中国经济规模
00:28
will be almost the same size as the American economy.
6
28260
3000
会和美国经济几乎相当。
00:31
And if you look at the chart
7
31260
3000
如果看
00:34
for 2050,
8
34260
2000
2050年的图表,
00:36
it's projected that the Chinese economy
9
36260
3000
预测表明中国经济规模
00:39
will be twice the size of the American economy,
10
39260
3000
将会是美国经济的两倍,
00:42
and the Indian economy will be almost the same size
11
42260
2000
印度的经济规模将会和
00:44
as the American economy.
12
44260
3000
美国的经济几乎持平。
00:47
And we should bear in mind here
13
47260
2000
在这里,我们应该记住
00:49
that these projections were drawn up
14
49260
2000
这些预测是在
00:51
before the Western financial crisis.
15
51260
3000
西方经济危机之前做出的。
00:54
A couple of weeks ago,
16
54260
2000
几周前,
00:56
I was looking at the latest projection
17
56260
2000
我查看法国巴黎银行的
00:58
by BNP Paribas
18
58260
2000
最近预测,
01:00
for when China
19
60260
3000
中国在什么时候
01:03
will have a larger economy
20
63260
2000
会超越美国经济,
01:05
than the United States.
21
65260
2000
成为第一大经济体。
01:07
Goldman Sachs projected 2027.
22
67260
4000
高盛投资公司预测2027年。
01:11
The post-crisis projection
23
71260
3000
危机过后的预测
01:14
is 2020.
24
74260
3000
是2020年。
01:17
That's just a decade away.
25
77260
2000
这也不过只有10年的光景。
01:19
China is going to change the world
26
79260
4000
中国将在两个基本方面上
01:23
in two fundamental respects.
27
83260
3000
改变世界。
01:26
First of all,
28
86260
2000
首先,
01:28
it's a huge developing country
29
88260
2000
中国是一个幅员广大的发展中国家
01:30
with a population of 1.3 billion people,
30
90260
4000
它有13亿人口,
01:34
which has been growing for over 30 years
31
94260
3000
在过去30年间
01:37
at around 10 percent a year.
32
97260
2000
它以每年10%左右的经济增长率发展。
01:39
And within a decade,
33
99260
2000
在未来10年间,
01:41
it will have the largest economy in the world.
34
101260
4000
它会有世界上最大的经济体。
01:45
Never before in the modern era
35
105260
3000
在世界现代史中,以前从来都是发达国家
01:48
has the largest economy in the world
36
108260
3000
还没有一个发展中的国家
01:51
been that of a developing country,
37
111260
2000
变成了世界上
01:53
rather than a developed country.
38
113260
3000
最大的经济体。
01:57
Secondly,
39
117260
2000
第二,
01:59
for the first time in the modern era,
40
119260
2000
在现代史中第一次
02:01
the dominant country in the world --
41
121260
2000
在世界上,
02:03
which I think is what China will become --
42
123260
3000
我认为中国会变成大国,
02:06
will be not from the West
43
126260
3000
它有别于西方国家
02:09
and from very, very different civilizational roots.
44
129260
4000
而它是从非常,非常不同的文明根源发展起的大国。
02:13
Now, I know it's a widespread assumption in the West
45
133260
4000
现在我知道西方国家有一个普遍的假设
02:17
that as countries modernize,
46
137260
3000
随着国家的现代化,
02:20
they also westernize.
47
140260
2000
它们也会西方化。
02:22
This is an illusion.
48
142260
2000
这是个幻想。
02:24
It's an assumption that modernity
49
144260
2000
这是对于现代化
02:26
is a product simply of competition, markets and technology.
50
146260
3000
仅仅是竞争,市场和技术的一种产品的假设。
02:29
It is not. It is also shaped equally
51
149260
2000
中国的现代化不仅仅是这样的,也是由
02:31
by history and culture.
52
151260
2000
历史和文化共同作用下形成的。
02:33
China is not like the West,
53
153260
3000
中国不同于西方国家,
02:36
and it will not become like the West.
54
156260
3000
它也不会变成和西方国家一样。
02:39
It will remain in very fundamental respects
55
159260
2000
它会在非常基础的方面表现得
02:41
very different.
56
161260
2000
非常不同。
02:43
Now the big question here is obviously,
57
163260
3000
现在这的大问题明显是,
02:46
how do we make sense of China?
58
166260
2000
我们该怎样认识中国?
02:48
How do we try to understand what China is?
59
168260
2000
我们该怎样了解中国?
02:50
And the problem we have in the West at the moment, by and large,
60
170260
3000
在西方我们现在的问题大体上
02:53
is that the conventional approach
61
173260
2000
是传统的方法
02:55
is that we understand it really in Western terms,
62
175260
2000
我们用西方的术语,用西方的观点来了解
02:57
using Western ideas.
63
177260
3000
真正的中国。
03:00
We can't.
64
180260
2000
我们不能这样。
03:02
Now I want to offer you
65
182260
2000
现在我想给大家
03:04
three building blocks
66
184260
2000
3个基础理由
03:06
for trying to understand what China is like,
67
186260
3000
来试着了解中国
03:09
just as a beginning.
68
189260
2000
只是起个头。
03:11
The first is this:
69
191260
2000
首先是这个,
03:13
that China is not really a nation-state.
70
193260
3000
中国事实上不是一个民族国家。
03:16
Okay, it's called itself a nation-state
71
196260
2000
在过去的几百年,中国自称是一个
03:18
for the last hundred years,
72
198260
2000
民族国家。
03:20
but everyone who knows anything about China
73
200260
2000
但对中国很了解的人
03:22
knows it's a lot older than this.
74
202260
2000
知道中国比这历史要悠久得多。
03:24
This was what China looked like with the victory of the Qin Dynasty
75
204260
3000
中国是
03:27
in 221 B.C. at the end of the warring-state period --
76
207260
3000
在公元前221年也就在战国时期的末期从秦朝一统江山起,
03:30
the birth of modern China.
77
210260
2000
现代中国就诞生了。
03:32
And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China.
78
212260
3000
你可以看到现代中国的边界线。
03:35
Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty,
79
215260
2000
随之其后的汉朝,
03:37
still 2,000 years ago.
80
217260
2000
还在2000年前。
03:39
And you can see already it occupies
81
219260
2000
你可以看出中国已经占据
03:41
most of what we now know as Eastern China,
82
221260
2000
我们现在所知的华东地区的大部分,
03:43
which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then
83
223260
3000
绝大多数的中国人当时在那儿居住
03:46
and live now.
84
226260
2000
现在还生活在那儿。
03:48
Now what is extraordinary about this
85
228260
2000
这点非同寻常的
03:50
is, what gives China its sense of being China,
86
230260
3000
是,它赋予了中国做为中国的意义,
03:53
what gives the Chinese
87
233260
3000
也赋予了中国人
03:56
the sense of what it is to be Chinese,
88
236260
3000
成为他们中国人的意义,
03:59
comes not from the last hundred years,
89
239260
2000
这不是从过去几百年,
04:01
not from the nation-state period,
90
241260
2000
也不是从民族国家开始形成这种认识,
04:03
which is what happened in the West,
91
243260
3000
这跟西方发展也不一样,
04:06
but from the period, if you like,
92
246260
2000
而这一阶段,如果你喜欢,
04:08
of the civilization-state.
93
248260
2000
可以说是文明国家的阶段。
04:10
I'm thinking here, for example,
94
250260
3000
我想到这儿,举个例子吧,
04:13
of customs like ancestral worship,
95
253260
3000
传统习惯例如:对祖先的崇拜,
04:16
of a very distinctive notion of the state,
96
256260
3000
非常有特色的国家概念,
04:19
likewise, a very distinctive notion of the family,
97
259260
3000
诸如此类的,非常有特色的家庭观念,
04:22
social relationships like guanxi,
98
262260
2000
社交关系如关系,
04:24
Confucian values and so on.
99
264260
2000
儒家价值观等等。
04:26
These are all things that come
100
266260
2000
所有这些事都来自于
04:28
from the period of the civilization-state.
101
268260
3000
文明国家的阶段。
04:31
In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in the world,
102
271260
3000
换言之,中国不像世界上的西方国家和多数国家,
04:34
is shaped by its sense of civilization,
103
274260
3000
它由它自身文明所形成,
04:37
its existence as a civilization-state,
104
277260
2000
它是作为一个文明国家
04:39
rather than as a nation-state.
105
279260
2000
而不是一个民族国家而存在的。
04:41
And there's one other thing to add to this, and that is this:
106
281260
3000
还有另一件事要加进来,这就是:
04:44
Of course we know China's big, huge,
107
284260
2000
当然我们知道中国是幅员辽阔,人口众多,
04:46
demographically and geographically,
108
286260
3000
在人口统计和地理上都是首屈一指,
04:49
with a population of 1.3 billion people.
109
289260
3000
它有13亿人口。
04:52
What we often aren't really aware of
110
292260
3000
我们常常没关注的
04:55
is the fact
111
295260
2000
事实是
04:57
that China is extremely diverse
112
297260
2000
中国也是极其多样化
04:59
and very pluralistic,
113
299260
2000
和非常多元化的,
05:01
and in many ways very decentralized.
114
301260
2000
在许多方面甚至权力是非常分散化的。
05:03
You can't run a place on this scale simply from Beijing,
115
303260
3000
尽管我们认为不能仅从北京中央政府来管理这庞大规模的国家,
05:06
even though we think this to be the case.
116
306260
3000
我们以为会是这样,
05:09
It's never been the case.
117
309260
3000
但从来都不是这样。
05:13
So this is China, a civilization-state,
118
313260
2000
所以这才是中国,一个文明国家,
05:15
rather than a nation-state.
119
315260
2000
而不是一个民族国家。
05:17
And what does it mean?
120
317260
2000
那这意味着什么呢?
05:19
Well, I think it has all sorts of profound implications.
121
319260
2000
那么我想这有很多种深刻的含义。
05:21
I'll give you two quick ones.
122
321260
2000
我会给你两个简短介绍。
05:23
The first is that
123
323260
2000
第一个是
05:25
the most important political value for the Chinese
124
325260
4000
中国人最主要的政治价值观
05:29
is unity,
125
329260
2000
是统一,
05:31
is the maintenance
126
331260
2000
用来维护
05:33
of Chinese civilization.
127
333260
2000
中华文明。
05:35
You know, 2,000 years ago, Europe:
128
335260
3000
大家知道,2000年前,欧洲:
05:38
breakdown -- the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire.
129
338260
3000
灭亡,神圣罗马帝国[罗马帝国]的分裂。
05:41
It divided, and it's remained divided ever since.
130
341260
3000
从那时到现在,它不断地分裂。
05:44
China, over the same time period,
131
344260
2000
在同一时间段,中国
05:46
went in exactly the opposite direction,
132
346260
2000
却有着完全相反的方向,
05:48
very painfully holding this huge civilization,
133
348260
3000
非常艰难地维系着这种强大的统一文明,
05:51
civilization-state, together.
134
351260
3000
把文明国家统一在一起。
05:54
The second
135
354260
2000
第二
05:56
is maybe more prosaic,
136
356260
2000
或许是更一般的例子
05:58
which is Hong Kong.
137
358260
2000
香港的例子。
06:00
Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong
138
360260
3000
大家是否记得香港
06:03
by Britain to China in 1997?
139
363260
2000
在1997年从英国政府转交给中国政府?
06:05
You may remember
140
365260
2000
大家能记得
06:07
what the Chinese constitutional proposition was.
141
367260
2000
中国宪法体制是什么吗?
06:09
One country, two systems.
142
369260
2000
一国两制。
06:11
And I'll lay a wager
143
371260
2000
我会打赌
06:13
that barely anyone in the West believed them.
144
373260
2000
在西方没有人会信这一套。
06:15
"Window dressing.
145
375260
2000
“装饰门面。
06:17
When China gets its hands on Hong Kong,
146
377260
2000
当中国政府接手香港,
06:19
that won't be the case."
147
379260
2000
这不可能。”
06:21
Thirteen years on,
148
381260
2000
13年来,
06:23
the political and legal system in Hong Kong
149
383260
2000
香港现在的政治和司法体制
06:25
is as different now as it was in 1997.
150
385260
3000
和1997年一样,但和中国大陆的有所不同。
06:28
We were wrong. Why were we wrong?
151
388260
3000
我们都错了,为什么我们理解错了呢?
06:31
We were wrong because we thought, naturally enough,
152
391260
3000
我们错是因为我们理所当然地
06:34
in nation-state ways.
153
394260
2000
以民族国家角度思考。
06:36
Think of German unification, 1990.
154
396260
2000
想想1990年德国统一。
06:38
What happened?
155
398260
2000
发生什么了?
06:40
Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West.
156
400260
2000
基本上东德被西德吞噬。
06:42
One nation, one system.
157
402260
2000
一个国家,一个体制。
06:44
That is the nation-state mentality.
158
404260
3000
这是民族国家的心态。
06:47
But you can't run a country like China,
159
407260
3000
但是你不能用此来管理一个像中国这样的,
06:50
a civilization-state,
160
410260
2000
一个文明国家,
06:52
on the basis of one civilization, one system.
161
412260
3000
它建立在一种文明,一个体制上。
06:55
It doesn't work.
162
415260
2000
这行不通。
06:57
So actually the response of China
163
417260
3000
的确中国
07:00
to the question of Hong Kong --
164
420260
2000
在香港问题上的回应
07:02
as it will be to the question of Taiwan --
165
422260
2000
也是在台湾问题上的回应,
07:04
was a natural response:
166
424260
2000
它是一个很自然的回应:
07:06
one civilization, many systems.
167
426260
3000
一种文明,多种体制。
07:09
Let me offer you another building block
168
429260
2000
让我来说另一个基础理由
07:11
to try and understand China --
169
431260
2000
来试着了解中国
07:13
maybe not sort of a comfortable one.
170
433260
3000
这或许是一个让人不舒服的理由。
07:16
The Chinese have a very, very different
171
436260
2000
中国与其他大多数国家对
07:18
conception of race
172
438260
2000
民族的概念
07:20
to most other countries.
173
440260
3000
有非常,非常不同的理解。
07:23
Do you know,
174
443260
2000
大家知道,
07:25
of the 1.3 billion Chinese,
175
445260
3000
13亿中国人,
07:28
over 90 percent of them
176
448260
2000
超过90%的中国人
07:30
think they belong to the same race,
177
450260
3000
认为他们属于同一个民族,
07:33
the Han?
178
453260
2000
汉族。
07:35
Now, this is completely different
179
455260
2000
目前这与
07:37
from the world's [other] most populous countries.
180
457260
3000
世界上其它人口众多的国家截然相反。
07:40
India, the United States,
181
460260
2000
印度,美国,
07:42
Indonesia, Brazil --
182
462260
3000
印度尼西亚,巴西,
07:45
all of them are multiracial.
183
465260
3000
他们都是多民族的。
07:48
The Chinese don't feel like that.
184
468260
3000
中国人没有感到过多民族。
07:51
China is only multiracial
185
471260
2000
中国仅是
07:53
really at the margins.
186
473260
3000
在边界线上有多种少数民族的人。
07:56
So the question is, why?
187
476260
2000
那问题是,为什么?
07:58
Well the reason, I think, essentially
188
478260
2000
好吧,我认为实质上,原因
08:00
is, again, back to the civilization-state.
189
480260
3000
得再次追溯到这文明国家。
08:03
A history of at least 2,000 years,
190
483260
3000
至少在2000年的历史长河中,
08:06
a history of conquest, occupation,
191
486260
2000
征服,占领,
08:08
absorption, assimilation and so on,
192
488260
2000
合并,同化等的历史
08:10
led to the process by which,
193
490260
2000
随着时间的推移导致了
08:12
over time, this notion of the Han emerged --
194
492260
3000
汉民族这概念的形成过程
08:15
of course, nurtured
195
495260
2000
当然,这概念也孕育了
08:17
by a growing and very powerful sense
196
497260
3000
增强了汉文化认同感
08:20
of cultural identity.
197
500260
3000
也使其变得非常强大,具有深远意义。
08:23
Now the great advantage of this historical experience
198
503260
3000
现在这历史经验的巨大优势
08:26
has been that, without the Han,
199
506260
4000
呈现出来,没有汉民族,
08:30
China could never have held together.
200
510260
2000
中国永远不可能连为一体。
08:32
The Han identity has been the cement
201
512260
3000
汉民族文化认同一直
08:35
which has held this country together.
202
515260
3000
把这个国家粘合在一起。
08:38
The great disadvantage of it
203
518260
2000
它的巨大的劣势
08:40
is that the Han have a very weak conception
204
520260
2000
是汉民族对文化差异
08:42
of cultural difference.
205
522260
2000
有很少的认知概念。
08:44
They really believe
206
524260
3000
他们真正相信
08:47
in their own superiority,
207
527260
2000
他们自身汉族文化的优越性,
08:49
and they are disrespectful
208
529260
2000
他们不尊重
08:51
of those who are not.
209
531260
2000
那些不同民族的差异性。
08:53
Hence their attitude, for example,
210
533260
2000
因此, 举个例子,比如他们对待
08:55
to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans.
211
535260
3000
回族和藏族的态度。
08:59
Or let me give you my third building block,
212
539260
2000
让我给出第三个基础理由,
09:01
the Chinese state.
213
541260
2000
中国式的国家。
09:03
Now the relationship
214
543260
2000
现在在中国
09:05
between the state and society in China
215
545260
3000
国家和社会间的关系
09:08
is very different from that in the West.
216
548260
3000
非常不同于西方的那种关系。
09:12
Now we in the West
217
552260
2000
在西方我们
09:14
overwhelmingly seem to think -- in these days at least --
218
554260
2000
绝大多数人似乎认为--至少在最近
09:16
that the authority and legitimacy of the state
219
556260
4000
国家的权威和合法性
09:20
is a function of democracy.
220
560260
3000
是民主的一个功能。
09:23
The problem with this proposition
221
563260
2000
有关这问题
09:25
is that the Chinese state
222
565260
4000
是中国这个国家
09:29
enjoys more legitimacy
223
569260
2000
对中国人民享有更多合法性
09:31
and more authority
224
571260
2000
和更多权威性
09:33
amongst the Chinese
225
573260
3000
09:36
than is true
226
576260
2000
比起
09:38
with any Western state.
227
578260
3000
任何西方国家,它都是事实。
09:42
And the reason for this
228
582260
2000
这个的原因
09:44
is because --
229
584260
2000
是因为
09:46
well, there are two reasons, I think.
230
586260
2000
我认为有两个理由。
09:48
And it's obviously got nothing to do with democracy,
231
588260
2000
中国很明显与民主无关,
09:50
because in our terms the Chinese certainly don't have a democracy.
232
590260
3000
因为依我们来看,中国完全称不上是民主。
09:53
And the reason for this is,
233
593260
2000
这个理由是,
09:55
firstly, because the state in China
234
595260
3000
首先,因为在中国,国家
09:58
is given a very special --
235
598260
3000
是一个非常特别有所指的,
10:01
it enjoys a very special significance
236
601260
2000
它享有一个非常特别的意义
10:03
as the representative,
237
603260
2000
作为中华文明的代表,
10:05
the embodiment and the guardian
238
605260
3000
体现
10:08
of Chinese civilization,
239
608260
2000
和捍卫者,
10:10
of the civilization-state.
240
610260
3000
也是代表中国国家的代表,化身和捍卫者。
10:13
This is as close as China gets
241
613260
2000
这也接近中国有种
10:15
to a kind of spiritual role.
242
615260
3000
精神象征的作用。
10:19
And the second reason is because,
243
619260
2000
第二个理由是因为,
10:21
whereas in Europe
244
621260
2000
反之在欧洲,
10:23
and North America,
245
623260
2000
北美洲,
10:25
the state's power is continuously challenged --
246
625260
3000
国家的权力不断受到挑战。
10:28
I mean in the European tradition,
247
628260
2000
我指在欧洲历史传统,
10:30
historically against the church,
248
630260
2000
历史上反对教堂,
10:32
against other sectors of the aristocracy,
249
632260
2000
反对其它各种贵族阶级,
10:34
against merchants and so on --
250
634260
2000
反对商人等等
10:36
for 1,000 years,
251
636260
2000
有1000年历史,
10:38
the power of the Chinese state
252
638260
2000
中国国家的权力
10:40
has not been challenged.
253
640260
2000
从来没被挑战过。
10:42
It's had no serious rivals.
254
642260
3000
它没有真正的对手可抗衡。
10:46
So you can see
255
646260
2000
所以大家可以看到
10:48
that the way in which power has been constructed in China
256
648260
4000
在中国已经建立的权力的方式
10:52
is very different from our experience
257
652260
2000
与我们西方历史的经验
10:54
in Western history.
258
654260
3000
非常不同。
10:57
The result, by the way,
259
657260
2000
顺便提一下,结果
10:59
is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state.
260
659260
4000
是中国人看待国家有非常不同的视角。
11:04
Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder,
261
664260
3000
鉴于我们倾向于把国家看作是一个入侵者,
11:07
a stranger,
262
667260
3000
一个陌生人,
11:10
certainly an organ
263
670260
2000
当然是一个组织
11:12
whose powers need to be limited
264
672260
3000
它的权力需要被限制
11:15
or defined and constrained,
265
675260
2000
或被界定和约束,
11:17
the Chinese don't see the state like that at all.
266
677260
2000
中国人可一点都不这样看待国家。
11:19
The Chinese view the state
267
679260
3000
中国人视国家
11:22
as an intimate -- not just as an intimate actually,
268
682260
3000
作为一个亲密的朋友,也不止是作为一个密友,
11:25
as a member of the family --
269
685260
2000
作为家庭里的一员,
11:27
not just in fact as a member of the family,
270
687260
2000
事实上也不止是家里一员,
11:29
but as the head of the family,
271
689260
2000
而是一家之长,
11:31
the patriarch of the family.
272
691260
2000
家庭里的家长。
11:33
This is the Chinese view of the state --
273
693260
3000
这是从中国视角来看待国家,
11:36
very, very different to ours.
274
696260
2000
和我们的截然不同。
11:38
It's embedded in society in a different kind of way
275
698260
3000
根植于中国社会的案例
11:41
to what is the case
276
701260
2000
与我们在西方的社会例证
11:43
in the West.
277
703260
2000
是完全不同的。
11:45
And I would suggest to you that actually what we are dealing with here,
278
705260
3000
我给大家的建议是我们的确要了解
11:48
in the Chinese context,
279
708260
3000
在中国背景下,
11:51
is a new kind of paradigm,
280
711260
2000
这是一种新的范例,
11:53
which is different from anything
281
713260
2000
它与
11:55
we've had to think about in the past.
282
715260
3000
我们过去曾想过的范例是不同的。
11:59
Know that China believes in the market and the state.
283
719260
3000
要知道中国人相信市场和国有。
12:02
I mean, Adam Smith,
284
722260
2000
我指,亚当·斯密
12:04
already writing in the late 18th century, said,
285
724260
3000
在18世纪晚期已经著书,说过,
12:07
"The Chinese market is larger and more developed
286
727260
2000
“中国市场比起欧洲的任何一个市场,
12:09
and more sophisticated
287
729260
2000
它都是较大的,较为发达的
12:11
than anything in Europe."
288
731260
2000
也是较为复杂的。”
12:13
And, apart from the Mao period,
289
733260
2000
除了毛泽东时代,
12:15
that has remained more or less the case ever since.
290
735260
2000
中国市场大体是如上的例证。
12:17
But this is combined
291
737260
2000
但这也是
12:19
with an extremely strong and ubiquitous state.
292
739260
4000
在一个极强大和无处不在的国家做后盾。
12:23
The state is everywhere in China.
293
743260
2000
国家就是中国的一切。
12:25
I mean, it's leading firms --
294
745260
2000
我指,它引领着公司,
12:27
many of them are still publicly owned.
295
747260
3000
他们中的许多公司还是国企所有。
12:30
Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo,
296
750260
3000
私有企业,不管它们有多大,像Lenovo联想,
12:33
depend in many ways on state patronage.
297
753260
2000
在很多方面也依赖于国家的资助。
12:35
Targets for the economy and so on
298
755260
2000
国家设置了经济目标
12:37
are set by the state.
299
757260
2000
等等。
12:39
And the state, of course, its authority flows into lots of other areas --
300
759260
2000
当然,国家的权威也穿插在许多其他方面
12:41
as we are familiar with --
301
761260
2000
比如我们所述熟悉的
12:43
with something like the one-child policy.
302
763260
2000
独生子女政策。
12:45
Moreover, this is a very old state tradition,
303
765260
3000
此外,中国是一个非常古老的传统国家,
12:48
a very old tradition of statecraft.
304
768260
2000
有一个非常古老传统的治国纲领。
12:50
I mean, if you want an illustration of this,
305
770260
3000
如果你想搞明白这样的例子,
12:53
the Great Wall is one.
306
773260
2000
长城就是其中一个。
12:55
But this is another, this is the Grand Canal,
307
775260
2000
但这有另一个,这是(京杭)大运河,
12:57
which was constructed in the first instance
308
777260
2000
它起初是
12:59
in the fifth century B.C.
309
779260
2000
在公元前5世纪被建造的
13:01
and was finally completed
310
781260
2000
在公元7世纪时
13:03
in the seventh century A.D.
311
783260
2000
它最终竣工。
13:05
It went for 1,114 miles,
312
785260
4000
它有1114英里,
13:09
linking Beijing
313
789260
2000
链接北京
13:11
with Hangzhou and Shanghai.
314
791260
3000
到杭州和上海。
13:14
So there's a long history
315
794260
2000
在中国,
13:16
of extraordinary state infrastructural projects
316
796260
3000
非凡的国家大型基础建设的历史
13:19
in China,
317
799260
2000
由来已久,
13:21
which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today,
318
801260
3000
我认为这也帮助我们来了解我们今天所看到的,
13:24
which is something like the Three Gorges Dam
319
804260
2000
例如三峡大坝工程
13:26
and many other expressions
320
806260
2000
和许多中国其它的
13:28
of state competence
321
808260
2000
国家工程
13:30
within China.
322
810260
2000
业绩。
13:32
So there we have three building blocks
323
812260
3000
所以这3个组成部分
13:35
for trying to understand the difference that is China --
324
815260
3000
让我们了解中国的不同--
13:38
the civilization-state,
325
818260
3000
文明国家,
13:41
the notion of race
326
821260
2000
民族的概念
13:43
and the nature of the state
327
823260
2000
和国家的属性
13:45
and its relationship to society.
328
825260
3000
以及它和社会的关系。
13:48
And yet we still insist, by and large,
329
828260
3000
总地说来,我们还一直坚持
13:51
in thinking that we can understand China
330
831260
4000
认为我们仅从西方经验的视角
13:55
by simply drawing on Western experience,
331
835260
3000
就能理解中国
13:58
looking at it through Western eyes,
332
838260
3000
通过西方人视角
14:01
using Western concepts.
333
841260
2000
使用西方理念来看透中国。
14:03
If you want to know why
334
843260
2000
如果你想知道
14:05
we unerringly seem to get China wrong --
335
845260
3000
我们为什么对中国有错误的认识
14:08
our predictions about what's going to happen to China are incorrect --
336
848260
3000
我们对在中国发生的事情的预言为什么也是不正确的
14:11
this is the reason.
337
851260
4000
这上所述就是原因。
14:15
Unfortunately, I think,
338
855260
2000
不幸的是我认为,
14:17
I have to say that I think
339
857260
3000
我得说我认为
14:20
attitude towards China
340
860260
2000
对中国的态度
14:22
is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality.
341
862260
3000
是西方人的一种心态做崇。
14:25
It's kind of arrogant.
342
865260
2000
这是傲慢的心态。
14:27
It's arrogant in the sense
343
867260
2000
就傲慢的心态而言
14:29
that we think that we are best,
344
869260
2000
我们认为我们是最好的,
14:31
and therefore we have the universal measure.
345
871260
3000
因此我们有普世的评判标准。
14:35
And secondly, it's ignorant.
346
875260
2000
其次,这是无知的。
14:37
We refuse to really address
347
877260
3000
我们拒绝真正承认
14:40
the issue of difference.
348
880260
2000
问题的不同面。
14:42
You know, there's a very interesting passage
349
882260
2000
大家知道,美国历史学家保罗·柯文(Paul Cohen)的书里(《在中国发现历史——中国中心观在美国的兴起》)
14:44
in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian.
350
884260
3000
有一段非常有意思的话。
14:47
And Paul Cohen argues
351
887260
3000
保罗·柯文讲到
14:50
that the West thinks of itself
352
890260
4000
西方认为它自身文化
14:54
as probably the most cosmopolitan
353
894260
2000
好比是所有文化里最具有国际化的
14:56
of all cultures.
354
896260
2000
文化。
14:58
But it's not.
355
898260
2000
但事实不是。
15:00
In many ways,
356
900260
2000
在许多方面,
15:02
it's the most parochial,
357
902260
2000
它是最狭隘的,
15:04
because for 200 years,
358
904260
3000
因为200年来,
15:07
the West has been so dominant in the world
359
907260
3000
西方一直主宰世界
15:10
that it's not really needed
360
910260
2000
它不必
15:12
to understand other cultures,
361
912260
3000
去了解其他文化,
15:15
other civilizations.
362
915260
2000
其他文明。
15:17
Because, at the end of the day,
363
917260
2000
因为,到头来,
15:19
it could, if necessary by force,
364
919260
3000
必要时可动武,
15:22
get its own way.
365
922260
2000
彰显其自身文化。
15:24
Whereas those cultures --
366
924260
2000
反之这些其它文化
15:26
virtually the rest of the world, in fact,
367
926260
3000
几乎在世界其它地区的,事实上,
15:29
which have been in a far weaker position, vis-a-vis the West --
368
929260
3000
面对西方文化,它们一直处于相对较弱的地位,
15:32
have been thereby forced to understand the West,
369
932260
3000
从而也一直被迫来了解西方文化,
15:35
because of the West's presence in those societies.
370
935260
3000
因为西方文化在这些社会有影响力的原因。
15:38
And therefore, they are, as a result,
371
938260
3000
所以,结果是它们
15:41
more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West.
372
941260
3000
在许多方面比起西方更国际化。
15:44
I mean, take the question of East Asia.
373
944260
2000
我们来谈谈东亚的问题。
15:46
East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc. --
374
946260
3000
东亚:日本,韩国,中国等等--
15:49
a third of the world's population lives there.
375
949260
2000
世界上三分之一人口住在那边,
15:51
Now the largest economic region in the world.
376
951260
2000
现在是全球最大的经济区域。
15:53
And I'll tell you now,
377
953260
2000
现在我会告诉你,
15:55
that East Asianers, people from East Asia,
378
955260
2000
东亚人,东亚的人们,
15:57
are far more knowledgeable
379
957260
2000
对西方的认识程度
15:59
about the West
380
959260
2000
比起
16:01
than the West is about East Asia.
381
961260
4000
西方国家对东亚的认识程度要深的多。
16:05
Now this point is very germane, I'm afraid,
382
965260
3000
现在我恐怕这个观点到现在还是非常
16:08
to the present.
383
968260
2000
有影响的。
16:10
Because what's happening? Back to that chart at the beginning,
384
970260
3000
因为发生的变化吗?回到开始的图表--
16:13
the Goldman Sachs chart.
385
973260
2000
高盛投资公司的图表。
16:15
What is happening
386
975260
2000
当前发生的
16:17
is that, very rapidly in historical terms,
387
977260
3000
是,在历史上非常迅速,
16:20
the world is being driven
388
980260
3000
世界不是
16:23
and shaped,
389
983260
2000
被老旧的发达国家
16:25
not by the old developed countries,
390
985260
2000
所驱动和塑造,
16:27
but by the developing world.
391
987260
2000
而是被发展中新兴国家。
16:29
We've seen this
392
989260
2000
我们看到这个
16:31
in terms of the G20
393
991260
2000
G20二十国集团
16:33
usurping very rapidly the position of the G7,
394
993260
3000
它非常迅速地抢占G7七国集团
16:36
or the G8.
395
996260
3000
或者G8八国集团的地位。
16:40
And there are two consequences of this.
396
1000260
3000
同时这有两个结果。
16:43
First, the West
397
1003260
2000
第一,西方
16:45
is rapidly losing
398
1005260
2000
正快速地失去
16:47
its influence in the world.
399
1007260
2000
它在全球的影响。
16:49
There was a dramatic illustration of this actually a year ago --
400
1009260
3000
一年前就有一个戏剧性的例证证明这个观点
16:52
Copenhagen, climate change conference.
401
1012260
2000
哥本哈根,气候变化会议。
16:54
Europe was not at the final negotiating table.
402
1014260
2000
欧洲没有出现在最后讨论谈判桌上。
16:56
When did that last happen?
403
1016260
2000
上次欧洲置之事外是在什么时候?
16:58
I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago.
404
1018260
3000
我敢打赌约在200年前也发生同样的事。
17:01
And that is what is going to happen in the future.
405
1021260
3000
在未来这还会发生。
17:04
And the second implication
406
1024260
2000
第二个含义
17:06
is that the world will inevitably, as a consequence,
407
1026260
3000
是世界将不可避免地
17:09
become increasingly unfamiliar to us,
408
1029260
4000
急剧变化,对我们来说很陌生,
17:13
because it'll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories
409
1033260
3000
因为世界被我们所不熟悉的或者不精通的文化,
17:16
that we are not really familiar with,
410
1036260
3000
经验和历史
17:19
or conversant with.
411
1039260
2000
所重塑。
17:21
And at last, I'm afraid -- take Europe;
412
1041260
2000
最后,我恐怕,拿欧洲来说,
17:23
America is slightly different --
413
1043260
2000
美国是有点不同的
17:25
but Europeans by and large, I have to say,
414
1045260
3000
但大体上,我得说欧洲人
17:28
are ignorant,
415
1048260
3000
是无知的,
17:31
are unaware
416
1051260
2000
他们没有意识到
17:33
about the way the world is changing.
417
1053260
3000
世界上正在发生的改变。
17:36
Some people -- I've got an English friend in China,
418
1056260
3000
有人,我有一个在中国的英国朋友,
17:39
and he said, "The continent is sleepwalking into oblivion."
419
1059260
3000
他说,“旧大陆在梦游似的会被遗忘。”
17:44
Well, maybe that's true,
420
1064260
2000
好吧,恐怕是对的,
17:46
maybe that's an exaggeration.
421
1066260
2000
恐怕这有点夸张。
17:48
But there's another problem which goes along with this --
422
1068260
3000
但另一问题随之产生
17:51
that Europe is increasingly out of touch with the world --
423
1071260
3000
欧洲正在日益与世界脱节
17:54
and that is a sort of
424
1074260
3000
这是一种
17:57
loss of a sense of the future.
425
1077260
2000
对未来感的缺失。
17:59
I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future
426
1079260
3000
当然,我指欧洲曾自信地
18:02
in its confidence.
427
1082260
2000
引领未来。
18:04
Take the 19th century, for example.
428
1084260
3000
拿19世纪来举例。
18:07
But this, alas, is no longer true.
429
1087260
3000
唉,但这已经风光不在。
18:10
If you want to feel the future, if you want to taste the future,
430
1090260
3000
如果你想感知未来,如果你想感触未来,
18:13
try China -- there's old Confucius.
431
1093260
3000
看看中国,这是古代的孔子。
18:16
This is a railway station
432
1096260
2000
这是一个火车站
18:18
the likes of which you've never seen before.
433
1098260
2000
这是你以前从未看到过的。
18:20
It doesn't even look like a railway station.
434
1100260
2000
它看上去不像是火车站。
18:22
This is the new [Wuhan] railway station
435
1102260
2000
这是为了高速列车行驶而新建的
18:24
for the high-speed trains.
436
1104260
2000
广州火车站。
18:26
China already has a bigger network
437
1106260
2000
中国已经比起全球其他国家
18:28
than any other country in the world
438
1108260
2000
有更多的铁路网
18:30
and will soon have more than all the rest of the world put together.
439
1110260
4000
不久就会超过全球铁路网总和。
18:34
Or take this: now this is an idea,
440
1114260
2000
举个例子:现在这是个想法,
18:36
but it's an idea to be tried out shortly
441
1116260
3000
但这想法不久就会
18:39
in a suburb of Beijing.
442
1119260
2000
在北京郊区实现。
18:41
Here you have a megabus,
443
1121260
3000
这儿会有一辆超级公交,
18:44
on the upper deck carries about 2,000 people.
444
1124260
3000
在公交上层会承载2000人。
18:47
It travels on rails
445
1127260
2000
它会沿着郊区的路上轨道
18:49
down a suburban road,
446
1129260
2000
行驶,
18:51
and the cars travel underneath it.
447
1131260
3000
车辆可以在它下面穿行。
18:54
And it does speeds of up to about 100 miles an hour.
448
1134260
3000
它的时速可达每小时约100英里。
18:57
Now this is the way things are going to move,
449
1137260
3000
现在这个就是未来交通方式,
19:00
because China has a very specific problem,
450
1140260
2000
因为中国有非常具体问题,
19:02
which is different from Europe
451
1142260
2000
它有别于欧洲
19:04
and different from the United States:
452
1144260
2000
和美国。
19:06
China has huge numbers of people and no space.
453
1146260
3000
中国人口众多,但很少空间。
19:09
So this is a solution to a situation
454
1149260
2000
所以当
19:11
where China's going to have
455
1151260
2000
中国将会有
19:13
many, many, many cities
456
1153260
2000
越来越多的城市
19:15
over 20 million people.
457
1155260
2000
超过2000万人口时,这会是应对这种情况的解决方案。
19:17
Okay, so how would I like to finish?
458
1157260
3000
好吧,那么我会怎样来做结论呢?
19:20
Well, what should our attitude be
459
1160260
3000
那么,我们应该以怎样态度
19:23
towards this world
460
1163260
3000
来面对这个
19:26
that we see
461
1166260
2000
呈现在我们面前
19:28
very rapidly developing
462
1168260
2000
飞速发展的
19:30
before us?
463
1170260
2000
世界?
19:33
I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it.
464
1173260
3000
我认为关于此事,这会有好的方面也会有坏的方面。
19:36
But I want to argue, above all,
465
1176260
2000
但首先,我想指出
19:38
a big-picture positive for this world.
466
1178260
3000
这世界所展现的是一幅积极正面的蓝图。
19:43
For 200 years,
467
1183260
2000
200年来,
19:45
the world was essentially governed
468
1185260
6000
世界基本上
19:51
by a fragment of the human population.
469
1191260
4000
是被人类的一部分人所管辖。
19:55
That's what Europe and North America represented.
470
1195260
4000
这是以欧洲和北美为代表的。
19:59
The arrival of countries
471
1199260
2000
新兴国家的崛起
20:01
like China and India --
472
1201260
2000
像中国和印度
20:03
between them 38 percent of the world's population --
473
1203260
2000
它们占世界人口的百分之三十八
20:05
and others like Indonesia and Brazil and so on,
474
1205260
3000
和其他国家如印度尼西亚和巴西等等,
20:11
represent the most important single act
475
1211260
3000
他们代表了在过去200年间最重要的人类活动
20:14
of democratization
476
1214260
2000
民主化
20:16
in the last 200 years.
477
1216260
2000
进程。
20:18
Civilizations and cultures,
478
1218260
2000
曾被
20:20
which had been ignored, which had no voice,
479
1220260
3000
忽视,没有发言权的文明和文化,
20:23
which were not listened to, which were not known about,
480
1223260
2000
人们对此不了解,没听说过的文明和文化,
20:25
will have a different sort
481
1225260
2000
它们将会在这世界上以与众不同地
20:27
of representation in this world.
482
1227260
3000
声音代言它们自身。
20:30
As humanists, we must welcome, surely,
483
1230260
2000
作为人道主义者,我们必定要欢迎
20:32
this transformation,
484
1232260
2000
这种转型。
20:34
and we will have to learn
485
1234260
2000
我们还得学习
20:36
about these civilizations.
486
1236260
2000
这些文明。
20:38
This big ship here
487
1238260
3000
这儿的大船
20:41
was the one sailed in by Zheng He
488
1241260
2000
是在15世纪早期郑和
20:43
in the early 15th century
489
1243260
2000
下西洋时
20:45
on his great voyages
490
1245260
2000
航行的船,
20:47
around the South China Sea, the East China Sea
491
1247260
3000
它穿过中国东海,南海
20:50
and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa.
492
1250260
3000
然后穿行印度洋到达东非。
20:53
The little boat in front of it
493
1253260
4000
这前面的小船
20:57
was the one in which, 80 years later,
494
1257260
2000
是80年后,
20:59
Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic.
495
1259260
3000
克里斯托弗·哥伦布穿行大西洋的船只。
21:02
(Laughter)
496
1262260
2000
(笑声)
21:04
Or, look carefully
497
1264260
2000
或仔细看看
21:06
at this silk scroll
498
1266260
2000
这幅
21:08
made by ZhuZhou
499
1268260
3000
ZhuZhou朱周(音译)
21:11
in 1368.
500
1271260
3000
在1368年创作的绢轴国画。
21:14
I think they're playing golf.
501
1274260
2000
我认为他们在打高尔夫。
21:16
Christ, the Chinese even invented golf.
502
1276260
3000
上帝啊,竟然是中国人发明了高尔夫球。
21:19
Welcome to the future. Thank you.
503
1279260
3000
欢迎来到未来。谢谢。
21:22
(Applause)
504
1282260
3000
(掌声)
关于本网站

这个网站将向你介绍对学习英语有用的YouTube视频。你将看到来自世界各地的一流教师教授的英语课程。双击每个视频页面上显示的英文字幕,即可从那里播放视频。字幕会随着视频的播放而同步滚动。如果你有任何意见或要求,请使用此联系表与我们联系。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7