Understanding the rise of China | Martin Jacques

2,404,520 views ใƒป 2011-01-24

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืžืชืจื’ื: Shahar Kaiser ืžื‘ืงืจ: Ido Dekkers
00:15
The world is changing
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ื”ืขื•ืœื ืžืฉืชื ื”
00:17
with really remarkable speed.
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ื‘ืžื”ื™ืจื•ืช ื™ื•ืฆืืช ื“ื•ืคืŸ.
00:20
If you look at the chart at the top here,
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ืื ืชื‘ื™ื˜ื• ื‘ืชืจืฉื™ื ืฉื ืžืฆื ื›ืืŸ ืœืžืขืœื”,
00:22
you'll see that in 2025,
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ืชืจืื• ืฉื‘ืฉื ืช 2025,
00:24
these Goldman Sachs projections
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ืชื—ื–ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœื“ืžืŸ-ืกืืงืก ืฉืœืคื ื™ื›ื
00:26
suggest that the Chinese economy
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ืžืฆื™ืขื•ืช ืฉื”ื›ืœื›ืœื” ื”ืกื™ื ื™ืช
00:28
will be almost the same size as the American economy.
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ืชื”ื™ื” ื›ืžืขื˜ ื–ื”ื” ื‘ื’ื•ื“ืœื” ืœื›ืœื›ืœื” ื”ืืžืจื™ืงื ื™ืช.
00:31
And if you look at the chart
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ื•ืื ืชื‘ื™ื˜ื• ื‘ืชืจืฉื™ื
00:34
for 2050,
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ืขื‘ื•ืจ 2050
00:36
it's projected that the Chinese economy
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ืฆืคื•ื™ ืฉื”ื›ืœื›ืœื” ื”ืกื™ื ื™ืช
00:39
will be twice the size of the American economy,
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ืชื”ื™ื” ื›ืคื•ืœื” ื‘ื’ื•ื“ืœื” ืžืžืงื‘ื™ืœืชื” ื”ืืžืจื™ืงื ื™ืช,
00:42
and the Indian economy will be almost the same size
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ื•ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื” ื”ื”ื•ื“ื™ืช, ืชื”ื™ื” ื›ืžืขื˜ ื‘ื’ื•ื“ืœ
00:44
as the American economy.
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ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื” ื”ืืžืจื™ืงืื™ืช.
00:47
And we should bear in mind here
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ื•ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœื–ื›ื•ืจ ื‘ื ืงื•ื“ื” ื–ื•,
00:49
that these projections were drawn up
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ืฉืชื—ื–ื™ื•ืช ืืœื• ื ื•ืฆืจื•
00:51
before the Western financial crisis.
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ืœืคื ื™ ื”ืžืฉื‘ืจ ื‘ื›ืœื›ืœื” ื”ืžืขืจื‘ื™ืช.
00:54
A couple of weeks ago,
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ืœืคื ื™ ืฉื‘ื•ืขื™ื™ื,
00:56
I was looking at the latest projection
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ืขื™ื™ื ืชื™ ื‘ืชื—ื–ื™ื•ืช ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช
00:58
by BNP Paribas
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ืฉืคื•ืจืกืžื• ืข"ื™ BNP Paribas
01:00
for when China
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ืฉืžื ืกื•ืช ืœื—ื–ื•ืช ืžืชื™ ื›ืœื›ืœืช ืกื™ืŸ
01:03
will have a larger economy
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ืชืขื‘ื•ืจ ื‘ื’ื•ื“ืœื”
01:05
than the United States.
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ืืช ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื” ื”ืืžืจื™ืงื ื™ืช.
01:07
Goldman Sachs projected 2027.
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ื’ื•ืœื“ืžืŸ ืกืืงืก ืฆื•ืคื™ื ืฉื–ื” ื™ืชืจื—ืฉ ื‘- 2027
01:11
The post-crisis projection
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ื”ืชื—ื–ื™ื•ืช ื”ืžืขื•ื“ื›ื ื•ืช ืœืื—ืจ ื”ืžืฉื‘ืจ
01:14
is 2020.
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ืฆื•ืคื•ืช ืฉื–ื” ื™ืงืจื” ื‘-2020.
01:17
That's just a decade away.
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ื–ื” ื‘ืกืš ื”ื›ืœ ืขืฉื•ืจ ืžื”ื™ื•ื.
01:19
China is going to change the world
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ืกื™ืŸ ื”ื•ืœื›ืช ืœืฉื ื•ืช ืืช ื”ืขื•ืœื
01:23
in two fundamental respects.
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ื‘ืฉื ื™ ืžื•ื‘ื ื™ื ืžื”ื•ืชื™ื™ื.
01:26
First of all,
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ืจืืฉื™ืช,
01:28
it's a huge developing country
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ื–ื• ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืžืชืคืชื—ืช ืขื ืงื™ืช
01:30
with a population of 1.3 billion people,
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ืขื ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ื” ืฉืœ 1.3 ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ืื ืฉื™ื,
01:34
which has been growing for over 30 years
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ืฉืœื ื”ืคืกื™ืงื” ืœื’ื“ื•ืœ ื‘- 30 ื”ืฉื ื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช.
01:37
at around 10 percent a year.
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ื‘ืขืจืš, ื‘-10 ืื—ื•ื–ื™ื ื‘ื›ืœ ืฉื ื”.
01:39
And within a decade,
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ื•ื‘ืชื•ืš ืขืฉื•ืจ,
01:41
it will have the largest economy in the world.
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ืกื™ืŸ ืชื”ื™ื” ื‘ืขืœืช ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื” ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœื” ื‘ืขื•ืœื.
01:45
Never before in the modern era
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ืžืขื•ืœื ื‘ืชื•ืœื“ื•ืช ื”ืขื™ื“ืŸ ื”ืžื•ื“ืจื ื™
01:48
has the largest economy in the world
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ืœื ื”ืชืจื—ืฉ ืžืฆื‘, ืฉื”ื›ืœื›ืœื” ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœื” ื‘ืขื•ืœื
01:51
been that of a developing country,
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ืชื”ื™ื” ื–ื• ืฉืœ ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืžืชืคืชื—ืช,
01:53
rather than a developed country.
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ื•ืœื ืฉืœ ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืžืคื•ืชื—ืช.
01:57
Secondly,
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ืฉื ื™ืช,
01:59
for the first time in the modern era,
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ืœืจืืฉื•ื ื” ื‘ืชื•ืœื“ื•ืช ื”ืขื™ื“ืŸ ื”ืžื•ื“ืจื ื™,
02:01
the dominant country in the world --
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ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื” ื”ื“ื•ืžื™ื ื ื˜ื™ืช ื‘ืขื•ืœื
02:03
which I think is what China will become --
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ืฉืœื“ืขืชื™, ืกื™ืŸ ืขืชื™ื“ื” ืœื”ื™ื•ืช,
02:06
will be not from the West
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ืœื ืชื”ื™ื” ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืžืขืจื‘ื™ืช
02:09
and from very, very different civilizational roots.
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ื•ื›ืŸ ืชื”ื™ื” ื‘ืขืœืช ืฉื•ืจืฉื™ ืชืจื‘ื•ืช ืฉื•ื ื™ื ืœื—ืœื˜ื™ืŸ.
02:13
Now, I know it's a widespread assumption in the West
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ืื ื™ ื™ื•ื“ืข ืฉื–ื• ืกื‘ืจื” ืจื•ื•ื—ืช ื‘ืžืขืจื‘
02:17
that as countries modernize,
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ืฉื›ืืฉืจ ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื”ื•ืคื›ื•ืช ืžื•ื“ืจื ื™ื•ืช ื™ื•ืชืจ,
02:20
they also westernize.
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ื”ืŸ ื’ื ื”ื•ืคื›ื•ืช ืžืขืจื‘ื™ื•ืช ื™ื•ืชืจ.
02:22
This is an illusion.
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ืืฉืœื™ื™ื”.
02:24
It's an assumption that modernity
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ื™ืฉื ื” ื”ื ื—ื” ืฉืงื™ื“ืžื”
02:26
is a product simply of competition, markets and technology.
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ื”ื™ื ืชื•ืฆืื” ืฉืœ ื™ืฉื™ืจื” ืฉืœ ืชื—ืจื•ืช, ืฉื•ืง ื—ื•ืคืฉื™ ื•ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื”.
02:29
It is not. It is also shaped equally
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ื”ื™ื ืœื; ื”ืงื™ื“ืžื” ืžืขื•ืฆื‘ืช ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ืฉื•ื•ื”
02:31
by history and culture.
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ื’ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ื”ื™ืกื˜ื•ืจื™ื” ื•ืชืจื‘ื•ืช.
02:33
China is not like the West,
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ืกื™ืŸ ื”ื™ื ืœื ื›ืžื• ื”ืžืขืจื‘,
02:36
and it will not become like the West.
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ื•ื”ื™ื ืœื ืชื”ืคื•ืš ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžืขืจื‘ื™ืช.
02:39
It will remain in very fundamental respects
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ืกื™ืŸ ืชื™ืฉืืจ, ื‘ืžื•ื‘ื ื™ื ื”ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ื™ื ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ
02:41
very different.
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ืฉื•ื ื” ืžืื•ื“.
02:43
Now the big question here is obviously,
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ืื ื›ืŸ, ื”ืฉืืœื” ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœื” ื‘ืจื•ืจื”,
02:46
how do we make sense of China?
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ืื™ืš ืื ื• ืžื‘ื™ื ื™ื ืืช ืกื™ืŸ?
02:48
How do we try to understand what China is?
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ืื™ืš ืื ื• ืžื ืกื™ื ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ืืช ืฉื”ื™ื ืกื™ืŸ?
02:50
And the problem we have in the West at the moment, by and large,
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ื•ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื”ื’ื•ืจืคืช ืฉื™ืฉื ื” ื›ืจื’ืข ื‘ืžืขืจื‘,
02:53
is that the conventional approach
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ื”ื™ื ืฉื”ื’ื™ืฉื” ื”ืžืกื•ืจืชื™ืช
02:55
is that we understand it really in Western terms,
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ืžืืคืฉืจืช ืœื ื• ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ื‘ืžื•ื ื—ื™ื ืžืขืจื‘ื™ื™ื
02:57
using Western ideas.
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ื•ื‘ืฉื™ืžื•ืฉ ื‘ืจืขื™ื•ื ื•ืช ืžืขืจื‘ื™ื™ื.
03:00
We can't.
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ืกืชื™ืจื” ืžืขืฆื ื”ื’ื“ืจืชื”.
03:02
Now I want to offer you
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ื‘ืจืฆื•ื ื™ ืœื”ืฆื™ืข ืœื›ื
03:04
three building blocks
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ืฉืœื•ืฉ ืื‘ื ื™ ื‘ื ื™ื™ืŸ
03:06
for trying to understand what China is like,
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ืฉื™ืกื™ื™ืขื• ืœื ื• ืœื ืกื•ืช ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ืžื”ื™ ืกื™ืŸ
03:09
just as a beginning.
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ืจืง ื›ื ืงื•ื“ืช ื”ืชื—ืœื”.
03:11
The first is this:
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ื ืชื—ื™ืœ ืžื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื”
03:13
that China is not really a nation-state.
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ืฉืกื™ืŸ ืื™ื ื ื” ื‘ืืžืช ืžื“ื™ื ืช ืœืื•ื.
03:16
Okay, it's called itself a nation-state
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ืื– ื ื›ื•ืŸ, ื”ื™ื ืงื•ืจืืช ืœืขืฆืžื” ืžื“ื™ื ืช ืœืื•ื
03:18
for the last hundred years,
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ื›ื‘ืจ ืžืื” ืฉื ื™ื.
03:20
but everyone who knows anything about China
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ืืš ื›ืœ ืžื™ ืฉื™ื•ื“ืข ื“ื‘ืจ ืื• ืฉื ื™ื™ื ืขืœ ืกื™ืŸ
03:22
knows it's a lot older than this.
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ื™ื•ื“ืข ืฉื–ื”ื• ืกื™ืคื•ืจ ืขืชื™ืง ืžื›ืš.
03:24
This was what China looked like with the victory of the Qin Dynasty
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ื›ืš ื ืจืื• ื’ื‘ื•ืœื•ืชื™ื” ืฉืœ ืกื™ืŸ ืœืื—ืจ ื ืฆื—ื•ื ื” ืฉืœ ืฉื•ืฉืœืช ืฆ'ื™ืŸ
03:27
in 221 B.C. at the end of the warring-state period --
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ื‘ืฉื ืช 221 ืœืคื ื™ ื”ืกืคื™ืจื”, ื‘ืกื•ืฃ ืชืงื•ืคืช ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื”ืœื•ื—ืžื•ืช -
03:30
the birth of modern China.
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ืœื™ื“ืช ืกื™ืŸ ื”ืžื•ื“ืจื ื™ืช.
03:32
And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China.
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ื•ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืจืื•ืชื” ืœืขื•ืžืช ื’ื‘ื•ืœื•ืช ืกื™ืŸ ื‘ืช ื–ืžื ื ื•.
03:35
Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty,
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ืื• ืžื™ื“ ืœืื—ืจื™ื”, ืฉื•ืฉืœืช ื”ืืŸ,
03:37
still 2,000 years ago.
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ื›ืœ ื–ื”, ืœืคื ื™ 2000 ืฉื ื™ื.
03:39
And you can see already it occupies
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ื•ื›ื‘ืจ ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื”ื™ื ื—ื•ืœืฉืช
03:41
most of what we now know as Eastern China,
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ืขืœ ืžืจื‘ื™ืช ืžืžื” ืฉืžื•ื›ืจ ื”ื™ื•ื ื›ืžื–ืจื— ืกื™ืŸ,
03:43
which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then
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ืฉืžืื›ืœืก ืืช ืžืจื‘ื™ืช ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ืช ืกื™ืŸ
03:46
and live now.
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ื‘ืขื‘ืจ ื•ื‘ื”ื•ื•ื”.
03:48
Now what is extraordinary about this
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ืžื” ืฉื™ื•ืฆื ื“ื•ืคืŸ ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื–ื”,
03:50
is, what gives China its sense of being China,
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ื”ื•ื ืฉืžื” ืฉื ื•ืชืŸ ืœืกื™ืŸ ืืช ืชื—ื•ืฉืช ื”ื™ื•ืชื” ืกื™ืŸ,
03:53
what gives the Chinese
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ืžื” ืฉื ื•ืชืŸ ืœืกื™ื ื™ื
03:56
the sense of what it is to be Chinese,
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ืืช ื”ื–ื”ื•ืช ืฉืœื”ื ื›ืกื™ื ื™ื,
03:59
comes not from the last hundred years,
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ืœื ืžื’ื™ืข ืžื—ืœื•ืŸ ื–ืžืŸ ืฉืœ ืžืื•ืช ืฉื ื™ื
04:01
not from the nation-state period,
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ืœื ืžืชืงื•ืคืช ืžื“ื™ื ืช ื”ืœืื•ื,
04:03
which is what happened in the West,
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ื›ืคื™ ืฉื”ืชืจื—ืฉ ื‘ืžืขืจื‘,
04:06
but from the period, if you like,
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ืืœื, ืื ืชืจืฆื•,
04:08
of the civilization-state.
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ืžืชืงื•ืคืชื” ื›ืžื“ื™ื ืช ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื”.
04:10
I'm thinking here, for example,
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘, ืฉื“ื•ื’ืžืื•ืช ืœื›ืš ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืจืื•ืช,
04:13
of customs like ancestral worship,
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ื‘ืžื ื”ื’ื™ื ื›ืžื• ืคื•ืœื—ืŸ ื”ืื‘ื•ืช ื”ืงื“ืžื•ื ื™ื,
04:16
of a very distinctive notion of the state,
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ื•ื›ืžื• ืชืคื™ืกื” ืžื•ื’ื“ืจืช ืžืื•ื“ ืฉืœ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื”,
04:19
likewise, a very distinctive notion of the family,
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ื•ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ื“ื•ืžื”, ืชืคื™ืกื” ืžื’ื•ื‘ืฉืช ื”ื™ื˜ื‘ ืฉืœ ื”ืžืฉืคื—ื”,
04:22
social relationships like guanxi,
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ืงืฉืจื™ื ื—ื‘ืจืชื™ื™ื ื›ื’ื•ืŸ ื’ื ื•ืงืกื™,
04:24
Confucian values and so on.
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ืขืจื›ื™ื ืงื•ื ืคื™ื•ืฆื™ื™ื ื•ื›ืš ื”ืœืื”.
04:26
These are all things that come
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ื›ืœ ืืœื”, ืžืงื•ืจื
04:28
from the period of the civilization-state.
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ืžืชืงื•ืคืช ืžื“ื™ื ืช ื”ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื”.
04:31
In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in the world,
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ื‘ืžื™ืœื™ื ืื—ืจื•ืช, ืกื™ืŸ, ื‘ืฉื•ื ื” ืžืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืžืขืจื‘ื™ื•ืช ื•ืžืจื•ื‘ ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื”ืขื•ืœื,
04:34
is shaped by its sense of civilization,
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ืžืขื•ืฆื‘ืช ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืชื—ื•ืฉื” ืฉืœ ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื”,
04:37
its existence as a civilization-state,
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ืงื™ื•ืžื” ื›ืžื“ื™ื ืช ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื”
04:39
rather than as a nation-state.
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ื•ืœื ื›ืžื“ื™ื ืช ืœืื•ื.
04:41
And there's one other thing to add to this, and that is this:
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ื•ื™ืฉ ื“ื‘ืจ ืื—ื“ ืœื”ื•ืกื™ืฃ ืขืœ ื›ืš, ื•ื”ื•ื:
04:44
Of course we know China's big, huge,
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืฉืกื™ืŸ ื’ื“ื•ืœื”, ืขืฆื•ืžื”.
04:46
demographically and geographically,
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ื“ืžื•ื’ืจืคื™ืช ื•ื’ื™ืื•ื’ืจืคื™ืช,
04:49
with a population of 1.3 billion people.
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ืขื ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ื” ืฉืœ 1.3 ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ืื ืฉื™ื.
04:52
What we often aren't really aware of
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ืžื” ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืคื—ื•ืช ืขืจื™ื ืืœื™ื•
04:55
is the fact
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ื”ื™ื ื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื”
04:57
that China is extremely diverse
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ืฉืกื™ืŸ ื”ื™ื ืžืื•ื“ ืžื’ื•ื•ื ืช
04:59
and very pluralistic,
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ื•ืžืื•ื“ ืคืœื•ืจืœื™ืกื˜ื™ืช,
05:01
and in many ways very decentralized.
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ื•ื‘ืžื•ื‘ื ื™ื ืจื‘ื™ื, ืžืื•ื“ ืžื‘ื•ื–ืจืช.
05:03
You can't run a place on this scale simply from Beijing,
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ืืชื” ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื ื”ืœ ื‘ืงื ื” ืžื™ื“ื” ื›ื–ื” ืžื‘ื™ื™ื’'ื™ื ื’.
05:06
even though we think this to be the case.
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ืœืžืจื•ืช ืฉืื ื• ืกื‘ื•ืจื™ื ืฉื–ื”ื• ื”ืžืฆื‘.
05:09
It's never been the case.
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ื–ื” ืžืขื•ืœื ืœื ื”ื™ื” ื›ืš.
05:13
So this is China, a civilization-state,
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ืื– ื–ื•ื”ื™ ืกื™ืŸ, ืžื“ื™ื ืช ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื”,
05:15
rather than a nation-state.
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ื•ืœื ืžื“ื™ื ืช ืœืื•ื.
05:17
And what does it mean?
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ื•ืžื” ื”ืžืฉืžืขื•ืช ืฉืœ ื›ืœ ื–ื”?
05:19
Well, I think it has all sorts of profound implications.
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ืื ื™ ืžืืžื™ืŸ ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื›ืš ื”ืฉืคืขื•ืช ืžื’ื•ื•ื ื•ืช ื•ืžืจื—ื™ืงื•ืช ืœื›ืช.
05:21
I'll give you two quick ones.
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ืื ื™ ืื“ื’ื™ื ืฉื ื™ื™ื ื‘ืงืฆืจื”.
05:23
The first is that
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ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ ื”ื•ื
05:25
the most important political value for the Chinese
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ื”ืขืจืš ื”ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ ื‘ืžืขืœื” ืขื‘ื•ืจ ื”ืกื™ื ื™ื
05:29
is unity,
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ื”ื•ื ื”ืื—ื“ื•ืช.
05:31
is the maintenance
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ื”ื•ื ื”ืชื—ื–ื•ืงื”
05:33
of Chinese civilization.
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ืฉืœ ื”ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื” ื”ืกื™ื ื™ืช.
05:35
You know, 2,000 years ago, Europe:
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ืืชื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื, ืœืคื ื™ 2000 ืฉื ื™ื, ืื™ืจื•ืคื”:
05:38
breakdown -- the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire.
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ื”ืชืžื•ื˜ื˜ื•ืช - ืคื™ืจื•ืงื” ืฉืœ ื”ืื™ืžืคืจื™ื” ื”ืจื•ืžื™ืช.
05:41
It divided, and it's remained divided ever since.
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ื”ื™ื ืคื•ืœื’ื”, ื•ื ืฉืืจื” ืžืคื•ืœื’ืช ืžืื– ื•ืขื“ ื”ื™ื•ื.
05:44
China, over the same time period,
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ืกื™ืŸ, ื‘ืื•ืชื• ืคืจืง ื–ืžืŸ,
05:46
went in exactly the opposite direction,
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ื”ืœื›ื” ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ื‘ื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ื”ื”ืคื•ืš,
05:48
very painfully holding this huge civilization,
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ื•ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ืžืœืืช ื›ืื‘, ื”ื—ื–ื™ืงื” ืืช ื”ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื” ื”ืื“ื™ืจื” ื”ื–ื•,
05:51
civilization-state, together.
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ื›ืžื“ื™ื ืช ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื” ืžืื•ื—ื“ืช.
05:54
The second
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ื”ื“ื•ื’ืžื” ื”ืฉื ื™ื™ื”
05:56
is maybe more prosaic,
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ื”ื™ื ืื•ืœื™ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืคืจื•ื–ืื™ืช,
05:58
which is Hong Kong.
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ื•ื”ื™ื ื”ื•ื ื’-ืงื•ื ื’.
06:00
Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong
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ื”ืื ืืชื ื–ื•ื›ืจื™ื ืืช ื”ื”ืขื‘ืจื” ืฉืœ ื”ื•ื ื’ ืงื•ื ื’,
06:03
by Britain to China in 1997?
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ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ื‘ืจื™ื˜ื ื™ื” ื‘ืฉื ืช 1997?
06:05
You may remember
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ื™ื™ืชื›ืŸ ื•ืืชื ื–ื•ื›ืจื™ื
06:07
what the Chinese constitutional proposition was.
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ืžื” ื”ื”ืฆืขื” ื”ื—ื•ืงืชื™ืช ื”ืกื™ื ื™ืช ื”ื™ื™ืชื”?
06:09
One country, two systems.
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ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืื—ืช, ืฉืชื™ ืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ืฉืœื˜ื•ืŸ.
06:11
And I'll lay a wager
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ื•ืื ื™ ืžื•ื›ืŸ ืœื”ืžืจ,
06:13
that barely anyone in the West believed them.
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ืฉื›ืžืขื˜ ืื™ืฉ ื‘ืžืขืจื‘ ืœื ื”ืืžื™ืŸ ืœื”ื.
06:15
"Window dressing.
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"ื“ื™ื‘ื•ืจื™ื ืฉืœ "ื—ืœื•ืŸ ืจืื•ื•ื”".
06:17
When China gets its hands on Hong Kong,
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ื›ืฉืกื™ืŸ ืชื ื™ื— ืืช ื™ื“ื™ื” ืขืœ ื”ื•ื ื’ ืงื•ื ื’
06:19
that won't be the case."
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ื–ื” ืœื ื™ื”ื™ื” ื”ืžืฆื‘".
06:21
Thirteen years on,
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ื•ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ื›ืขื‘ื•ืจ 13 ืฉื ื™ื,
06:23
the political and legal system in Hong Kong
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ื”ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืช ื•ื”ืžืฉืคื˜ื™ืช ื‘ื”ื•ื ื’ ืงื•ื ื’
06:25
is as different now as it was in 1997.
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ืฉื•ื ื” ื›ืคื™ ืฉื”ื™ื™ืชื” ื‘-1997.
06:28
We were wrong. Why were we wrong?
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ื˜ืขื™ื ื•. ื•ืžื“ื•ืข ื˜ืขื™ื ื•?
06:31
We were wrong because we thought, naturally enough,
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ื˜ืขื™ื ื• ื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉื—ืฉื‘ื ื•, ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ืžืชืงื‘ืœืช ืขืœ ื”ื“ืขืช,
06:34
in nation-state ways.
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ื‘ื“ืจืš ืžื—ืฉื‘ื” ืฉืœ ืžื“ื™ื ืช ืœืื•ื.
06:36
Think of German unification, 1990.
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ืชื—ืฉื‘ื• ืขืœ ืื™ื—ื•ื“ ื’ืจืžื ื™ื”, 1990.
06:38
What happened?
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ืžื” ืงืจื”?
06:40
Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West.
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ื‘ืขื™ืงืจื• ืฉืœ ื“ื‘ืจ, ื”ืžื–ืจื— ื ื‘ืœืข ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ื”ืžืขืจื‘.
06:42
One nation, one system.
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ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืื—ืช, ืœืื•ื ืื—ื“, ืžืขืจื›ืช ืฉืœื˜ื•ื ื™ืช ืื—ืช.
06:44
That is the nation-state mentality.
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื”ืžื ื˜ืœื™ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืžื“ื™ื ืช ื”ืœืื•ื.
06:47
But you can't run a country like China,
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ืื‘ืœ ืœื ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœื ื”ืœ ืžื“ื™ื ื” ื›ืกื™ืŸ,
06:50
a civilization-state,
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ืžื“ื™ื ืช ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื”,
06:52
on the basis of one civilization, one system.
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ืขืœ ื‘ืกื™ืก ืฉืœ ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื” ืื—ืช, ืžืขืจื›ืช ืื—ืช.
06:55
It doesn't work.
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ื–ื” ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืœื ืขื•ื‘ื“.
06:57
So actually the response of China
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ื›ืš ืฉืœืžืขืฉื” ืชื’ื•ื‘ืชื” ืฉืœ ืกื™ืŸ
07:00
to the question of Hong Kong --
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ืœื’ื‘ื™ ืกื•ื’ื™ื™ืช ื”ื•ื ื’-ืงื•ื ื’
07:02
as it will be to the question of Taiwan --
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ื›ืคื™ ืฉืชื”ื™ื” ืœืกื•ื’ื™ื™ืช ื˜ืื™ื•ื•ืืŸ
07:04
was a natural response:
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ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ืชื’ื•ื‘ื” ื˜ื‘ืขื™ืช:
07:06
one civilization, many systems.
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ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื” ืื—ืช, ื”ืจื‘ื” ืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ืฉืœื˜ื•ื ื™ื•ืช.
07:09
Let me offer you another building block
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ื”ืจืฉื• ืœื™ ืœื”ืฆื™ืข ืขื•ื“ ืื‘ืŸ ื‘ื ื™ื™ืŸ,
07:11
to try and understand China --
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ื‘ื›ื“ื™ ืœื ืกื•ืช ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ืืช ืกื™ืŸ -
07:13
maybe not sort of a comfortable one.
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ืื•ืœื™ ื ืงื•ื“ื” ืฉืื™ื ื” ื›ื” ื ื•ื—ื”.
07:16
The Chinese have a very, very different
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ืœืกื™ื ื™ื ืชืคื™ืกื” ืฉื•ื ื” ืžืื•ื“ ืžืื•ื“
07:18
conception of race
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ื‘ื›ืœ ื”ื ื•ื’ืข ืœื’ื–ืข
07:20
to most other countries.
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ื‘ื™ื—ืก ืœืžืจื‘ื™ืช ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืื—ืจื•ืช.
07:23
Do you know,
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ื”ืื ืืชื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื,
07:25
of the 1.3 billion Chinese,
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ื›ื™ ืžืชื•ืš 1.3 ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ืกื™ื ื™ื,
07:28
over 90 percent of them
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ืœืžืขืœื” ืž- 90% ืžื”ื
07:30
think they belong to the same race,
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ืกื‘ื•ืจื™ื ื›ื™ ื”ื ื‘ื ื™ ืื•ืชื• ื”ื’ื–ืข,
07:33
the Han?
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ื’ื–ืข ื”ื”ืืŸ.
07:35
Now, this is completely different
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ืชืคื™ืกื” ืฉื•ื ื” ืœื’ืžืจื™,
07:37
from the world's [other] most populous countries.
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ืžื–ื• ืฉืจื•ื•ื—ืช ื‘ื™ืชืจ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ืช ื”ืžืื•ื›ืœืกื•ืช ื‘ืขื•ืœื.
07:40
India, the United States,
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ื”ื•ื“ื•, ืืจืฆื•ืช ื”ื‘ืจื™ืช,
07:42
Indonesia, Brazil --
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ืื™ื ื“ื•ื ื–ื™ื”, ื‘ืจื–ื™ืœ --
07:45
all of them are multiracial.
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ื›ื•ืœืŸ ืจื‘ ื’ื–ืขื™ื•ืช.
07:48
The Chinese don't feel like that.
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ื”ืกื™ื ื™ื ืื™ื ื ื—ืฉื™ื ื›ืš.
07:51
China is only multiracial
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ืกื™ืŸ ื”ื™ื ืจื‘ ื’ื–ืขื™ืช ืจืง
07:53
really at the margins.
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ืœืžืขืฉื” ืจืง ื‘ืฉื•ืœื™ื”.
07:56
So the question is, why?
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ืœืคื™ื›ืš, ื”ืฉืืœื” ื”ื™ื ืžื“ื•ืข?
07:58
Well the reason, I think, essentially
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ื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ืœื“ืขืชื™, ื‘ื™ืกื•ื“ื• ืฉืœ ื“ื‘ืจ,
08:00
is, again, back to the civilization-state.
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ื”ื™ื, ืฉื•ื‘, ื—ื–ืจื” ืืœ ืžื“ื™ื ืช ื”ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื”.
08:03
A history of at least 2,000 years,
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ื”ื™ืกื˜ื•ืจื™ื” ืฉืœ ืœืคื—ื•ืช 2000 ืฉื ื™ื,
08:06
a history of conquest, occupation,
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ื”ื™ืกื˜ื•ืจื™ื” ืฉืœ ื›ื™ื‘ื•ืฉ, ื”ืฉืชืœื˜ื•ืช,
08:08
absorption, assimilation and so on,
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ืงืœื™ื˜ื”, ื”ืชื‘ื•ืœืœื•ืช, ื•ื›ื“',
08:10
led to the process by which,
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ื”ื•ื‘ื™ืœื• ืœืชื”ืœื™ืš ืฉืขืœ ืคื™ื•,
08:12
over time, this notion of the Han emerged --
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ื‘ืžืจื•ืฆืช ื”ื–ืžืŸ, ื”ืื•ืžื” ื”ื–ื• - ื”ื”ืืŸ, ื ื•ืฆืจื” -
08:15
of course, nurtured
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ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ, ื”ื•ื–ื ื”
08:17
by a growing and very powerful sense
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ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืชื—ื•ืฉื” ื—ื–ืงื” ืžืื“
08:20
of cultural identity.
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ืฉืœ ื–ื”ื•ืช ืชืจื‘ื•ืชื™ืช.
08:23
Now the great advantage of this historical experience
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ื”ื™ืชืจื•ืŸ ื”ืžืฉืžืขื•ืชื™ ืฉืœ ื”ื ื™ืกื™ื•ืŸ ื”ื”ื™ืกื˜ื•ืจื™ ื”ื–ื”
08:26
has been that, without the Han,
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ื”ื™ื” ื‘ื›ืš ืฉืœื•ืœื ื”ื”ืืŸ,
08:30
China could never have held together.
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ืกื™ืŸ ืœืขื•ืœื ืœื ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ืžืกื•ื’ืœืช ืœื”ืฉืืจ ืžืื•ื—ื“ืช.
08:32
The Han identity has been the cement
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ื–ื”ื•ืช ื”ื”ืืŸ ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ื”ืžืœื˜
08:35
which has held this country together.
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ืืฉืจ ื”ื—ื–ื™ืง ืืช ื”ืืจืฅ ื”ื–ื• ืžืื•ื—ื“ืช.
08:38
The great disadvantage of it
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ื”ื—ืกืจื•ืŸ ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœ
08:40
is that the Han have a very weak conception
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ื”ื™ื” ื‘ื›ืš ืฉืœื”ืืŸ ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ืชืคื™ืกื” ื—ืœืฉื” ืžืื“
08:42
of cultural difference.
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ืœื’ื‘ื™ ืฉื•ื ื•ืช ืชืจื‘ื•ืชื™ืช.
08:44
They really believe
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ื”ื ืžืืžื™ื ื™ื ื‘ืืžืช
08:47
in their own superiority,
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ื‘ืขืœื™ื•ื ื•ืช ืฉืœื”ื,
08:49
and they are disrespectful
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ื•ื”ื ื—ืกืจื™ ื›ื‘ื•ื“
08:51
of those who are not.
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ืœืžื™ ืฉืื™ื ื• ืžืฉืชื™ื™ืš ืืœื™ื”ื.
08:53
Hence their attitude, for example,
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ืžื›ืš ื’ื™ืฉืชื, ืœืฉื ื“ื•ื’ืžื”,
08:55
to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans.
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ืœืื•ื™ื’ื•ืจื™ื (ืขื ื˜ื•ืจืงื™ ืžืžืจื›ื– ืืกื™ื”) ื•ื”ื˜ื™ื‘ื˜ื™ื.
08:59
Or let me give you my third building block,
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ืื• - ื”ืจืฉื• ืœื™ ืœื”ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืืช ืื‘ืŸ ื”ื‘ื ื™ื™ืŸ ื”ืฉืœื™ืฉื™ืช ืฉืœื™,
09:01
the Chinese state.
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ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื” ื”ืกื™ื ื™ืช.
09:03
Now the relationship
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ื™ื—ืกื™ื
09:05
between the state and society in China
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ื‘ื™ืŸ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื” ื•ื‘ื™ืŸ ื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ื‘ืกื™ืŸ
09:08
is very different from that in the West.
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ื”ื™ื ืฉื•ื ื” ืžืื“ ืžื”ืฆื•ืจื” ื”ืžืขืจื‘ื™ืช.
09:12
Now we in the West
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ืื ื›ืŸ, ื‘ืžืขืจื‘,
09:14
overwhelmingly seem to think -- in these days at least --
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ืžืงื•ื‘ืœ ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ืžื›ืจืขืช - ื‘ื™ืžื™ื ื• ืื ื• ืœื›ืœ ื”ืคื—ื•ืช -
09:16
that the authority and legitimacy of the state
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ืฉื”ืกืžื›ื•ืช ื•ื”ืœื’ื™ื˜ื™ืžืฆื™ื” ืฉืœ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื”
09:20
is a function of democracy.
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ื”ื™ื ืคื•ื ืงืฆื™ื” ืฉืœ ื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื”.
09:23
The problem with this proposition
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ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื‘ื”ื ื—ื” ื”ื–ื• ื”ื™ื
09:25
is that the Chinese state
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ื”ื™ื ืฉื”ืžื“ื™ื ื” ื”ืกื™ื ื™ืช
09:29
enjoys more legitimacy
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ื–ื•ื›ื” ืœื™ื•ืชืจ ืœื’ื™ื˜ื™ืžืฆื™ื”
09:31
and more authority
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ื•ื™ื•ืชืจ ืกืžื›ื•ืช
09:33
amongst the Chinese
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ื‘ืงืจื‘ ื”ืกื™ื ื™ื
09:36
than is true
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ื‘ื”ืฉื•ื•ืื”
09:38
with any Western state.
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ืœื›ืœ ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืžืขืจื‘ื™ืช.
09:42
And the reason for this
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ื•ื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ืœื›ืš
09:44
is because --
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ื”ื™ื ื‘ืฉืœ ื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื” --
09:46
well, there are two reasons, I think.
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ื™ืฉ ืฉืชื™ ืกื™ื‘ื•ืช, ืื ื™ ืกื‘ื•ืจ.
09:48
And it's obviously got nothing to do with democracy,
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ื•ื›ืฆืคื•ื™, ืื™ืŸ ืœื›ืš ืฉื•ื ืงืฉืจ ืœื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื”,
09:50
because in our terms the Chinese certainly don't have a democracy.
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ืฉื›ืŸ ื‘ืžื•ื ื—ื™ื ื•, ื‘ืกื™ืŸ ืื™ืŸ ื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื” ื›ืœืœ.
09:53
And the reason for this is,
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ื•ื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ืœื›ืš ื”ื™ื,
09:55
firstly, because the state in China
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ืจืืฉื™ืช, ื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉื”ืžื“ื™ื ื” ื‘ืกื™ืŸ
09:58
is given a very special --
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ืžืงื‘ืœืช ื™ื—ืก --
10:01
it enjoys a very special significance
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ื”ื™ื ืžืงื‘ืœืช ืžืฉืžืขื•ืช ืžื™ื•ื—ื“ืช ื‘ืžื™ื ื”
10:03
as the representative,
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ื‘ืขืฆื ื”ื™ื•ืชื” ื”ื™ื™ืฆื•ื’,
10:05
the embodiment and the guardian
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ื”ื”ืชื’ืœืžื•ืช ื•ื”ื”ืฉื’ื—ื”
10:08
of Chinese civilization,
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ืฉืœ ื”ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื” ื”ืกื™ื ื™ืช,
10:10
of the civilization-state.
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ืฉืœ ืžื“ื™ื ืช ื”ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื”.
10:13
This is as close as China gets
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื”ืงืจื‘ื” ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœื” ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ ืฉื™ืฉ ื‘ืกื™ืŸ
10:15
to a kind of spiritual role.
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ืœืžืฉื”ื• ืฉืงืฉื•ืจ ืœืชืคืงื™ื“ ืจื•ื—ื ื™.
10:19
And the second reason is because,
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ื•ื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ื”ืฉื ื™ื” ื”ื™ื ื‘ื›ืš,
10:21
whereas in Europe
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ืฉื‘ื–ืžืŸ ืฉื‘ืื™ืจื•ืคื”
10:23
and North America,
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ื•ืฆืคื•ืŸ ืืžืจื™ืงื”,
10:25
the state's power is continuously challenged --
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ื›ื•ื—ื” ืฉืœ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืžืื•ืชื’ืจ ื›ืœ ื”ืขืช -
10:28
I mean in the European tradition,
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ื›ื•ื•ื ืชื™ ื”ื™ื ืฉื‘ืžืกื•ืจืช ื”ืื™ืจื•ืคืื™ืช,
10:30
historically against the church,
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ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื”ื™ืกื˜ื•ืจื™ ื ื’ื“ ื”ื›ื ืกื™ื™ื”,
10:32
against other sectors of the aristocracy,
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ื ื’ื“ ืžื’ื–ืจื™ื ืฉืœ ื”ืืฆื•ืœื”,
10:34
against merchants and so on --
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ื ื’ื“ ืกื•ื—ืจื™ื ื•ื›ืŸ ื”ืœืื” --
10:36
for 1,000 years,
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ื‘ืžืฉืš 1000 ืฉื ื™ื,
10:38
the power of the Chinese state
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ื›ื•ื—ื” ืฉืœ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื” ื”ืกื™ื ื™ืช
10:40
has not been challenged.
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ืœื ืื•ืชื’ืจ.
10:42
It's had no serious rivals.
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ืœื ื”ื™ื• ืœื” ื™ืจื™ื‘ื™ื ืจืฆื™ื ื™ื™ื.
10:46
So you can see
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ื•ื›ืš ืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืจืื•ืช
10:48
that the way in which power has been constructed in China
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ืฉื”ืื•ืคืŸ ื‘ื• ื”ื•ื‘ื ื” ื”ื›ื•ื— ื‘ืกื™ืŸ
10:52
is very different from our experience
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ื”ื™ื ื• ืฉื•ื ื” ืžืื“ ืžื”ื ืกื™ื•ืŸ ืฉืœื ื•
10:54
in Western history.
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ื‘ื”ื™ืกื˜ื•ืจื™ื” ื”ืžืขืจื‘ื™ืช.
10:57
The result, by the way,
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ื”ืชื•ืฆืื”, ื“ืจืš ืื’ื‘,
10:59
is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state.
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ื”ื™ื ืฉืœืกื™ื ื™ื ืชืคื™ืกื” ืฉื•ื ื” ืžืื“ ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื”.
11:04
Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder,
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ื‘ืขื•ื“ ืฉืื ื• ื ื•ื˜ื™ื ืœืจืื•ืช ืื•ืชื” ื›ืคื•ืœืฉื ื™ืช,
11:07
a stranger,
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ื–ืจื”,
11:10
certainly an organ
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ืžื›ืฉื™ืจ ืžืžืฉื™
11:12
whose powers need to be limited
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ืืฉืจ ื›ื•ื—ื•ืชื™ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžื•ื’ื‘ืœื™ื
11:15
or defined and constrained,
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ืื• ืžื•ื’ื“ืจื™ื ืื• ืžืจื•ืกื ื™ื,
11:17
the Chinese don't see the state like that at all.
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ื”ืกื™ื ื™ื ืœื ืจื•ืื™ื ืืช ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื” ื›ืš ื›ืœืœ ื•ืขื™ืงืจ.
11:19
The Chinese view the state
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ื”ืกื™ื ื™ื ื—ื•ื•ื™ื ืืช ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื”
11:22
as an intimate -- not just as an intimate actually,
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ื›ืื“ื ืงืจื•ื‘ - ืœื ืจืง ื›ืื“ื ืงืจื•ื‘, ืœืžืขืฉื”,
11:25
as a member of the family --
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ื›ื—ืœืง ืžื”ืžืฉืคื—ื” --
11:27
not just in fact as a member of the family,
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ืœื ืจืง, ืœืืžื™ืชื• ืฉืœ ื“ื‘ืจ, ื›ื—ืœืง ืžื”ืžืฉืคื—ื”,
11:29
but as the head of the family,
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ืืœื ืจืืฉ ื”ืžืฉืคื—ื”,
11:31
the patriarch of the family.
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ื”ืคื˜ืจื™ืืจืš ืฉืœ ื”ืžืฉืคื—ื”.
11:33
This is the Chinese view of the state --
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื ืงื•ื“ืช ื”ืžื‘ื˜ ืฉืœ ื”ืกื™ื ื™ื ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื” --
11:36
very, very different to ours.
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ืฉื•ื ื” ืžืื“ ืžืื“ ืžืฉืœื ื•.
11:38
It's embedded in society in a different kind of way
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ื”ื™ื ืžื•ื˜ืžืขืช ื‘ื—ื‘ืจื” ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ืฉื•ื ื”
11:41
to what is the case
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ืžื”ืื•ืคืŸ ืฉื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื ืจืื”
11:43
in the West.
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ื‘ืžืขืจื‘.
11:45
And I would suggest to you that actually what we are dealing with here,
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ื•ื”ื™ื™ืชื™ ืžืฆื™ืข ืฉืœืžืขืฉื”, ืžื” ืฉืื ื• ืžืชืžื•ื“ื“ื™ื ืื™ืชื• ื›ืืŸ,
11:48
in the Chinese context,
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ื‘ื”ืงืฉืจ ื”ืกื™ื ื™,
11:51
is a new kind of paradigm,
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ื”ื•ื ืกื•ื’ ืฉืœ ืคืจื“ื™ื’ืžื” ื—ื“ืฉื”,
11:53
which is different from anything
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ืฉืฉื•ื ื” ืžื›ืœ ื“ื‘ืจ
11:55
we've had to think about in the past.
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ืฉื—ืฉื‘ื ื• ืื•ื“ื•ืชื™ื• ื‘ืขื‘ืจ.
11:59
Know that China believes in the market and the state.
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ื“ืขื• ืฉืกื™ืŸ ืžืืžื™ื ื” ื‘ืฉื•ืง ื•ื‘ืžื“ื™ื ื”.
12:02
I mean, Adam Smith,
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ืื ื™ ืžืชื›ื•ื•ืŸ, ืื“ื ืกืžื™ืช',
12:04
already writing in the late 18th century, said,
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ื›ืชื‘ ื›ื‘ืจ ื‘ืฉืœื”ื™ ื”ืžืื” ื”-18,
12:07
"The Chinese market is larger and more developed
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"ื”ืฉื•ืง ื”ืกื™ื ื™ ื”ื•ื ื’ื“ื•ืœ ื•ืžืคื•ืชื— ื™ื•ืชืจ
12:09
and more sophisticated
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ื•ืžืชื•ื—ื›ื ื™ื•ืชืจ
12:11
than anything in Europe."
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ื‘ื™ื—ืก ืœื›ืœ ื“ื‘ืจ ื‘ืื™ืจื•ืคื”".
12:13
And, apart from the Mao period,
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ื•ืœืžืขื˜ ืชืงื•ืคืช ืžืื•,
12:15
that has remained more or less the case ever since.
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ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื ืฉืืจ ื ื›ื•ืŸ, ืคื—ื•ืช ืื• ื™ื•ืชืจ, ืžืื– ื•ืขื“ ืขืชื”.
12:17
But this is combined
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ืืš ื“ื‘ืจ ื–ื” ืžืฉื•ืœื‘
12:19
with an extremely strong and ubiquitous state.
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ื™ื—ื“ ืขื ืžื“ื™ื ื” ื—ื–ืงื” ืžืื“, ืฉื™ื“ื” ื‘ื›ืœ.
12:23
The state is everywhere in China.
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ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื” ื”ื™ื ื‘ื›ืœ ืžืงื•ื ื‘ืกื™ืŸ.
12:25
I mean, it's leading firms --
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ื›ื•ื•ื ืชื™ ื”ื™ื, ื”ื™ื ืžื ื”ืœืช ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช,
12:27
many of them are still publicly owned.
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ืจื‘ื•ืช ืžื”ืŸ ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ื‘ื‘ืขืœื•ืช ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจื™ืช.
12:30
Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo,
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ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืคืจื˜ื™ื•ืช, ื’ื“ื•ืœื•ืช ื›ื›ืœ ืฉื™ื”ื™ื•, ื›ืžื• ืœื ื•ื‘ื•,
12:33
depend in many ways on state patronage.
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ืชืœื•ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืžื™ื“ื” ืจื‘ื” ืขืœ ืคื˜ืจื•ื ื•ืช ืžื“ื™ื ื™ืช.
12:35
Targets for the economy and so on
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ื™ืขื“ื™ ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื”, ื•ื›ื™ื•ืฆื ื‘ื–ื”
12:37
are set by the state.
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ื ืงื‘ืขื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื”.
12:39
And the state, of course, its authority flows into lots of other areas --
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ื•ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื”, ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ, ืกืžื›ื•ืชื” ืžื—ืœื—ืœืช ืœืชื•ืš ืชื—ื•ืžื™ ื—ื™ื™ื ืจื‘ื™ื ืื—ืจื™ื --
12:41
as we are familiar with --
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ื›ืžื• ืฉืžื•ื›ืจ ืœื ื• --
12:43
with something like the one-child policy.
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ืขื ืžืฉื”ื• ื›ืžื• ืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ื”ื™ืœื“-ื”ืื—ื“.
12:45
Moreover, this is a very old state tradition,
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ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื–ื”, ื–ื•ื”ื™ ืžืกื•ืจืช ืžื“ื™ื ื™ืช ืขืชื™ืงื”,
12:48
a very old tradition of statecraft.
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ืžืกื•ืจืช ืฉืœื˜ื•ื ื™ืช ืขืชื™ืงื” ืžืื“.
12:50
I mean, if you want an illustration of this,
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ืื ื™ ืžืชื›ื•ื•ืŸ, ืื ืชืจืฆื• ื“ื•ื’ืžื” ืœื›ืš,
12:53
the Great Wall is one.
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ื”ื—ื•ืžื” ื”ืกื™ื ื™ืช ื”ื™ื ื“ื•ื’ืžื” ืื—ืช ืœื›ืš.
12:55
But this is another, this is the Grand Canal,
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ืืš ื™ืฉ ืขื•ื“, ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื”ืชืขืœื” ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœื” ืฉืœ ืกื™ืŸ,
12:57
which was constructed in the first instance
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ืืฉืจ ื‘ื ื™ื™ืชื” ื”ื—ืœื”
12:59
in the fifth century B.C.
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ื‘ืžืื” ื”ื—ืžื™ืฉื™ืช ืœืคื ื™ ื”ืกืคื™ืจื”.
13:01
and was finally completed
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ื•ื‘ื ื™ื™ืชื” ื”ื•ืฉืœืžื”
13:03
in the seventh century A.D.
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ื‘ืžืื” ื”ืฉื‘ื™ืขื™ืช ืœืกืคื™ืจื”.
13:05
It went for 1,114 miles,
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ื”ื™ื ื ื—ืคืจื” ืœืื•ืจืš 1800 ืง"ืž,
13:09
linking Beijing
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ืžื—ื‘ืจืช ืืช ื‘ื™ื™ื’'ื™ืŸ
13:11
with Hangzhou and Shanghai.
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ืขื ื”ืื ื’ื’'ื•ืื• ื•ืฉื ื—ืื™.
13:14
So there's a long history
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ื›ืš ืฉื™ืฉ ื”ื™ืกื˜ื•ืจื™ื” ืืจื•ื›ื”
13:16
of extraordinary state infrastructural projects
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ืฉืœ ืชื›ื ื™ื•ืช ืชืฉืชื™ืช ื™ื•ืฆืื•ืช ืžืŸ ื”ื›ืœืœ
13:19
in China,
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ื‘ืกื™ืŸ,
13:21
which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today,
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ืฉืžืกื™ื™ืขื•ืช ืœื ื• ืœื”ืกื‘ื™ืจ ืืช ืžื” ืฉืื ื• ืจื•ืื™ื ื›ื™ื•ื,
13:24
which is something like the Three Gorges Dam
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ืฉื–ื”ื• ืžืฉื”ื• ื›ืžื• ืกื›ืจ ืฉืœื•ืฉืช ื”ืขืจื•ืฆื™ื
13:26
and many other expressions
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ื•ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื™ื™ื ืจื‘ื™ื ื ื•ืกืคื™ื
13:28
of state competence
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ืฉืœ ื™ื›ื•ืœื•ืชื™ื” ืฉืœ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื”
13:30
within China.
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ื‘ืชื•ืš ืกื™ืŸ.
13:32
So there we have three building blocks
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ื•ื”ื ื” ืœืคื ื™ื ื• ืฉืœื•ืฉ ืื‘ื ื™ ื‘ื ื™ื™ืŸ
13:35
for trying to understand the difference that is China --
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ื‘ื ืกื™ื•ืŸ ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ืืช ื”ืฉื•ื ื™ ืฉื‘ืกื™ืŸ -
13:38
the civilization-state,
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ืžื“ื™ื ืช ื”ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื”,
13:41
the notion of race
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ืชืคื™ืกืช ื”ื’ื–ืข
13:43
and the nature of the state
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ื•ื˜ื‘ืขื” ืฉืœ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื”
13:45
and its relationship to society.
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ื•ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ื™ื—ืกื™ื ืฉืœื” ืขื ื”ื—ื‘ืจื”.
13:48
And yet we still insist, by and large,
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ื•ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ืื ื• ืžืชืขืงืฉื™ื, ืจื•ื‘ ื”ื–ืžืŸ,
13:51
in thinking that we can understand China
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ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืฉืื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ืืช ืกื™ืŸ
13:55
by simply drawing on Western experience,
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ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ื”ืกืชืžื›ื•ืช ืขืœ ื ืกื™ื•ืŸ ืžืขืจื‘ื™,
13:58
looking at it through Western eyes,
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ื”ืชื‘ื•ื ื ื•ืช ืขืœื™ื” ื“ืจืš ืขื™ื ื™ื™ื ืžืขืจื‘ื™ื•ืช,
14:01
using Western concepts.
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ื‘ืฉื™ืžื•ืฉ ื‘ืชืคื™ืกื•ืช ืžืขืจื‘ื™ื•ืช.
14:03
If you want to know why
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ืื ื‘ืจืฆื•ื ื›ื ืœื“ืขืช ืžื“ื•ืข
14:05
we unerringly seem to get China wrong --
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ืื ื• ืžืžืฉื™ื›ื™ื ื‘ืขืงืฉื ื•ืช ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ืืช ืกื™ืŸ ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืฉื’ื•ื™ --
14:08
our predictions about what's going to happen to China are incorrect --
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ื”ืชื—ื–ื™ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื• ืœื’ื‘ื™ ืžื” ืฉืขืชื™ื“ ืœื”ืชืจื—ืฉ ื‘ืกื™ืŸ ื”ืŸ ืฉื’ื•ื™ื•ืช --
14:11
this is the reason.
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื”ืกื™ื‘ื”.
14:15
Unfortunately, I think,
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ืœืฆืขืจื™ ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘,
14:17
I have to say that I think
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ืขืœื™ ืœื”ื•ื“ื•ืช ืฉืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘
14:20
attitude towards China
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ืฉื”ื’ื™ืฉื” ื›ืœืคื™ ืกื™ืŸ
14:22
is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality.
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ื”ื™ื ื’ื™ืฉื” ืฉืœ ืžื ื˜ืœื™ื•ืช ืžืขืจื‘ื™ืช ืงื˜ื ื”.
14:25
It's kind of arrogant.
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ื”ื™ื ื‘ืžื™ื“ืช ืžื” ื–ื—ื•ื—ื”.
14:27
It's arrogant in the sense
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ื”ื™ื ื–ื—ื•ื—ื” ื‘ืžื•ื‘ืŸ ื–ื”
14:29
that we think that we are best,
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ืฉืื ื• ืกื‘ื•ืจื™ื ืฉืื ื• ื”ื˜ื•ื‘ื™ื ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ,
14:31
and therefore we have the universal measure.
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ื•ืœืคื™ื›ืš ื‘ื ื• ืžืฆื•ื™ ืงื ื” ื”ืžื™ื“ื” ื”ืื•ื ื™ื‘ืจืกืืœื™.
14:35
And secondly, it's ignorant.
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ื•ืฉื ื™ืช, ื”ื™ื ื’ื™ืฉื” ืฉืœ ื‘ื•ืจื•ืช.
14:37
We refuse to really address
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ืื ื• ืžืžืื ื™ื ืœืชืช ื”ืชื™ื™ื—ืกื•ืช ืืžื™ืชื™ืช
14:40
the issue of difference.
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ืœื ื•ืฉื ืฉืœ ืฉื•ื ื™.
14:42
You know, there's a very interesting passage
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ืืชื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื, ื™ืฉื ื” ืคื™ืกืงื” ืžืขื ื™ื™ื ืช
14:44
in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian.
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ื‘ืกืคืจื• ืฉืœ ืคื•ืœ ื›ื”ืŸ, ื”ื”ื™ืกื˜ื•ืจื™ื•ืŸ ื”ืืžืจื™ืงืื™.
14:47
And Paul Cohen argues
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ื•ืคื•ืœ ื›ื”ืŸ ื˜ื•ืขืŸ
14:50
that the West thinks of itself
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ืฉื”ืžืขืจื‘ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืขืœ ืขืฆืžื•
14:54
as probably the most cosmopolitan
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ื›ืขืœ ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ืงื•ืกืžื•ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ
14:56
of all cultures.
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ืžื›ืœ ืฉืืจ ื”ืชืจื‘ื•ื™ื•ืช.
14:58
But it's not.
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ืืš ื”ื•ื ืœื.
15:00
In many ways,
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ื‘ืžื•ื‘ื ื™ื ืจื‘ื™ื,
15:02
it's the most parochial,
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ื”ื•ื ืฆืจ ื”ืื•ืคืงื™ื ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ,
15:04
because for 200 years,
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ืฉื›ืŸ ื‘ืžืฉืš 200 ืฉื ื™ื,
15:07
the West has been so dominant in the world
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ื”ืžืขืจื‘ ื”ื™ื” ื›ื” ื“ื•ืžื™ื ื ื˜ื™ ื‘ืขื•ืœื
15:10
that it's not really needed
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ืฉืื™ืŸ ื”ื•ื ื–ืงื•ืง ื›ืœืœ
15:12
to understand other cultures,
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ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ืชืจื‘ื•ื™ื•ืช ืื—ืจื•ืช,
15:15
other civilizations.
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ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื•ืช ืื—ืจื•ืช.
15:17
Because, at the end of the day,
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ืฉื›ืŸ, ื‘ืกื•ืคื• ืฉืœ ื™ื•ื
15:19
it could, if necessary by force,
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ื”ื•ื ื™ื›ื•ืœ, ืื ืฆืจื™ืš ื’ื ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื›ื•ื—,
15:22
get its own way.
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ืœื”ืฉื™ื’ ืืช ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื‘ื“ืจื›ื• ืฉืœื•.
15:24
Whereas those cultures --
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ื›ืืฉืจ ื”ืชืจื‘ื•ื™ื•ืช ื”ืื—ืจื•ืช --
15:26
virtually the rest of the world, in fact,
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ื‘ืขืฆื ื›ืœ ืฉืืจ ื”ืขื•ืœื, ืœืžืขืฉื” -
15:29
which have been in a far weaker position, vis-a-vis the West --
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ืืฉืจ ื”ื™ื• ื‘ืขืžื“ื” ื ื—ื•ืชื” ื™ื•ืชืจ, ืžื•ืœ ื”ืžืขืจื‘,
15:32
have been thereby forced to understand the West,
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ื ืืœืฆื•, ื‘ืขืœ ื›ืจื—ืŸ, ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ืืช ื”ืžืขืจื‘,
15:35
because of the West's presence in those societies.
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ื‘ืฉืœ ื ื•ื›ื—ื•ืชื• ืฉืœ ื”ืžืขืจื‘ ื‘ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืฉืœื”ืŸ.
15:38
And therefore, they are, as a result,
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ื•ื‘ืฉืœ ื›ืš, ื”ืชื•ืฆืื” ื”ื™ื ืฉื”ืŸ
15:41
more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West.
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ื™ื•ืชืจ ืงื•ืกืžื•ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืฆื•ืจื•ืช ืจื‘ื•ืช ืžื”ืžืขืจื‘.
15:44
I mean, take the question of East Asia.
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ืœืžืฉืœ, ืงื—ื• ืืช ืฉืืœืช ืžื–ืจื— ืืกื™ื”.
15:46
East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc. --
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ืžื–ืจื— ืืกื™ื”: ื™ืคืŸ, ืงื•ืจื™ืื”, ืกื™ืŸ, ื•ื›ื“'. --
15:49
a third of the world's population lives there.
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ืฉืœื™ืฉ ืžืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ืช ื”ืขื•ืœื ืžืชื’ื•ืจืจืช ืฉื,
15:51
Now the largest economic region in the world.
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ื›ื™ื•ื ื”ืื–ื•ืจ ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื™ ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœ ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ ื‘ืขื•ืœื.
15:53
And I'll tell you now,
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ื•ืื•ืžืจ ืœื›ื ืขืชื”,
15:55
that East Asianers, people from East Asia,
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ืฉืžื–ืจื— ืืกื™ื™ืชื™ื, ืื ืฉื™ื ืžืžื–ืจื— ืืกื™ื”,
15:57
are far more knowledgeable
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ื”ื ื™ื“ืขื ื™ื ื’ื“ื•ืœื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ
15:59
about the West
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ืื•ื“ื•ืช ื”ืžืขืจื‘
16:01
than the West is about East Asia.
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ืžืืฉืจ ื”ืžืขืจื‘ ืขืœ ืžื–ืจื— ืืกื™ื”.
16:05
Now this point is very germane, I'm afraid,
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ื›ืขืช, ื ืงื•ื“ื” ื–ื• ื”ื™ื ืงืจื™ื˜ื™ืช, ืœืฆืขืจื™,
16:08
to the present.
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ืœื”ื•ื•ื”.
16:10
Because what's happening? Back to that chart at the beginning,
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ืžืคื ื™ ืฉืžื” ืฉืžืชืจื—ืฉ -- ื—ื–ืจื” ืืœ ื”ืชืจืฉื™ืžื™ื ื‘ื”ืชื—ืœื” --
16:13
the Goldman Sachs chart.
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ื”ืชืจืฉื™ื ืฉืœ ื’ื•ืœื“ืžืŸ ืกืืงืก.
16:15
What is happening
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ืžื” ืฉืžืชืจื—ืฉ
16:17
is that, very rapidly in historical terms,
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ื”ื•ื ืฉื‘ืžื”ื™ืจื•ืช ืจื‘ื”, ื‘ืžื•ื ื—ื™ื ื”ื™ืกื˜ื•ืจื™ื™ื,
16:20
the world is being driven
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ื”ืขื•ืœื ืžื•ื ืข
16:23
and shaped,
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ื•ืžืขื•ืฆื‘,
16:25
not by the old developed countries,
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ืœื ื‘ื™ื“ื™ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื”ืžืคื•ืชื—ื•ืช ื”ื™ืฉื ื•ืช,
16:27
but by the developing world.
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ืืœื ื‘ื™ื“ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื ื”ืžืชืคืชื—.
16:29
We've seen this
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ืจืื™ื ื• ื–ืืช
16:31
in terms of the G20
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ื‘ืžื•ื ื—ื™ื ืฉืœ ื”-G20 -
16:33
usurping very rapidly the position of the G7,
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ื”ืฉืชืœื˜ื•ืช ืžื”ื™ืจื” ืžืื“ ืขืœ ื”ืžืงื•ืžื•ืช ื‘-G7,
16:36
or the G8.
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ืื• ื”-G8.
16:40
And there are two consequences of this.
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ื•ื™ืฉื ืŸ ืฉืชื™ ื”ืฉืœื›ื•ืช ืœื›ืš.
16:43
First, the West
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ืจืืฉื™ืช, ื”ืžืขืจื‘,
16:45
is rapidly losing
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ืžืคืกื™ื“ ื‘ืžื”ื™ืจื•ืช
16:47
its influence in the world.
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ืืช ื”ืฉืคืขืชื• ืขืœ ื”ืขื•ืœื.
16:49
There was a dramatic illustration of this actually a year ago --
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ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ืœื›ืš ื”ื“ื’ืžื” ื˜ื•ื‘ื”, ืœืžืขืฉื”, ืœืคื ื™ ืฉื ื” -
16:52
Copenhagen, climate change conference.
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ืงื•ืคื ื”ื’ืŸ, ื”ื•ืขื™ื“ื” ืœืžืฉื‘ืจ ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ื”ืืงืœื™ื.
16:54
Europe was not at the final negotiating table.
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ืื™ืจื•ืคื” ืœื ื ื›ื—ื” ื‘ืฉื•ืœื—ืŸ ื”ื“ื™ื•ื ื™ื ื”ืกื•ืคื™.
16:56
When did that last happen?
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ืžืชื™ ื–ื” ืงืจื” ื‘ืคืขื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื”?
16:58
I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago.
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ืื ื™ ืžื•ื›ืŸ ืœื”ืชืขืจื‘ ืฉื–ื” ื”ื™ื”, ื›ื›ืœ ื”ื ืจืื”, ืœืคื ื™ ื›ืžืืชื™ื™ื ืฉื ื”.
17:01
And that is what is going to happen in the future.
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ื•ื–ื” ืžื” ืฉื™ืชืจื—ืฉ ื’ื ื‘ืขืชื™ื“.
17:04
And the second implication
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ื•ื”ื”ืฉืœื›ื” ื”ืฉื ื™ื™ื”
17:06
is that the world will inevitably, as a consequence,
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ื”ื™ื ืฉื”ืขื•ืœื, ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื‘ืœืชื™ ื ืžื ืข, ื›ืชื•ืฆืื” ืžื›ืš,
17:09
become increasingly unfamiliar to us,
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ื™ื”ืคื•ืš ืœื”ื™ื•ืช, ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ื”ื•ืœื›ืช ื•ื’ื•ื‘ืจืช, ืคื—ื•ืช ืžื•ื›ืจ ืœื ื•,
17:13
because it'll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories
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ืฉื›ืŸ ื”ื•ื ื™ืขื•ืฆื‘ ื‘ื™ื“ื™ ืชืจื‘ื•ื™ื•ืช ื•ืื™ืจื•ืขื™ื ื”ื™ืกื˜ื•ืจื™ื™ื
17:16
that we are not really familiar with,
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ืืฉืจ ืื™ื ื ืžื•ื›ืจื™ื ืœื ื•,
17:19
or conversant with.
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ื•ืื™ื ื ื• ื‘ืงื™ืื™ื ื‘ื”ื.
17:21
And at last, I'm afraid -- take Europe;
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ื•ืœื‘ืกื•ืฃ, ืœืฆืขืจื™ -- ืงื—ื• ืืช ืื™ืจื•ืคื”,
17:23
America is slightly different --
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ืืžืจื™ืงื” ืžืขื˜ ืฉื•ื ื” ื‘ื›ืš --
17:25
but Europeans by and large, I have to say,
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ืืš ื”ืื™ืจื•ืคืื™ื, ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžื•ื‘ื”ืง, ืขืœื™ ืœื•ืžืจ,
17:28
are ignorant,
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ื”ื ื‘ื•ืจื™ื,
17:31
are unaware
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ื”ื ืื™ื ื ืžื•ื“ืขื™ื
17:33
about the way the world is changing.
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ืขืœ ื”ืื•ืคืŸ ื‘ื• ื”ืขื•ืœื ืžืฉืชื ื”.
17:36
Some people -- I've got an English friend in China,
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ื›ืžื” ืื ืฉื™ื -- ื™ืฉ ืœื™ ื—ื‘ืจ ืื ื’ืœื™ ื‘ืกื™ืŸ,
17:39
and he said, "The continent is sleepwalking into oblivion."
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ื•ื”ื•ื ืืžืจ: "ื”ื™ื‘ืฉืช ืฆื•ืขื“ืช ืกื”ืจื•ืจื™ืช ืืœ ืขื‘ืจ ืชื”ื•ื ื”ื ืฉื™ื™ื”".
17:44
Well, maybe that's true,
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ืื•ืœื™ ื–ื” ื ื›ื•ืŸ,
17:46
maybe that's an exaggeration.
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ืื•ืœื™ ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื”ื’ื–ืžื”.
17:48
But there's another problem which goes along with this --
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ืืš ื™ืฉื ื” ื‘ืขื™ื” ืฉื”ื•ืœื›ืช ื™ื“ ื‘ื™ื“ ืขื ื–ื” --
17:51
that Europe is increasingly out of touch with the world --
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ืฉืื™ืจื•ืคื” ืžืชื ืชืงืช ืื˜ ืื˜ ืžื”ืขื•ืœื --
17:54
and that is a sort of
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ื•ื–ื”ื• ืกื•ื’ ืฉืœ
17:57
loss of a sense of the future.
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ืื‘ื“ืŸ ืฉืœ ืชื—ื•ืฉืช ื”ืขืชื™ื“.
17:59
I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future
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ืื ื™ ืžืชื›ื•ื•ืŸ, ื”ื™ื• ื™ืžื™ื ืฉืื™ืจื•ืคื”, ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ, ื ื™ื•ื•ื˜ื” ืืช ื”ืขืชื™ื“
18:02
in its confidence.
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ื‘ื‘ื˜ื—ื•ื ื”.
18:04
Take the 19th century, for example.
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ืงื—ื• ืœื“ื•ื’ืžื” ืืช ื”ืžืื” ื”-19.
18:07
But this, alas, is no longer true.
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ืืš ื–ืืช, ืœืžืฆืขืจ, ื›ื‘ืจ ืื™ื ื ื” ื”ืืžืช.
18:10
If you want to feel the future, if you want to taste the future,
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ืื ื‘ืจืฆื•ื ื›ื ืœื—ื•ืฉ ื‘ืขืชื™ื“, ื•ืื ื‘ืจืฆื•ื ื›ื ืœื˜ืขื•ื ืžืŸ ื”ืขืชื™ื“,
18:13
try China -- there's old Confucius.
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ื ืกื• ืืช ืกื™ืŸ -- ื”ื ื” ืงื•ื ืคื•ืฆื™ื•ืก ื”ื–ืงืŸ.
18:16
This is a railway station
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ืชื—ื ืช ืจื›ื‘ืช
18:18
the likes of which you've never seen before.
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ืฉื›ืžื•ืชื” ื˜ืจื ื™ืฆื ืœื›ื ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ืœืจืื•ืช.
18:20
It doesn't even look like a railway station.
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ื”ื™ื ืืฃ ืœื ื ืจืื™ืช ื›ืชื—ื ืช ืจื›ื‘ืช.
18:22
This is the new [Wuhan] railway station
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ืชื—ื ืช ื”ืจื›ื‘ืช ื”ื—ื“ืฉื” ืฉืœ ื’ื•ืื ื’ื’'ื•ืื•
18:24
for the high-speed trains.
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ื‘ืขื‘ื•ืจ ืจื›ื‘ื•ืช ืžื”ื™ืจื•ืช.
18:26
China already has a bigger network
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ืœืกื™ืŸ ื›ื‘ืจ ืขืชื” ื™ืฉ ืจืฉืช ื’ื“ื•ืœื” ื™ื•ืชืจ
18:28
than any other country in the world
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ืžืืฉืจ ื›ืœ ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืื—ืจืช ื‘ืขื•ืœื
18:30
and will soon have more than all the rest of the world put together.
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ื•ื‘ืงืจื•ื‘ ื™ื”ื™ื” ืœื” ืืฃ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื›ืœ ืฉืืจ ื”ืขื•ืœื ื™ื—ื“ื™ื•.
18:34
Or take this: now this is an idea,
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ืื• ืจืื• ืืช ื–ื”: ื–ื”ื• ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ,
18:36
but it's an idea to be tried out shortly
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ืืš ื–ื”ื• ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ืืฉืจ ื™ื ื•ืกื” ื‘ืงืจื•ื‘
18:39
in a suburb of Beijing.
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ื‘ืคืจื‘ืจื™ ื‘ื™ื™ื’'ื™ื ื’.
18:41
Here you have a megabus,
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ื”ื ื” ืœืคื ื™ื›ื ืžื’ื”-ืื•ื˜ื•ื‘ื•ืก,
18:44
on the upper deck carries about 2,000 people.
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ื‘ืจืฆื™ืฃ ื”ืขืœื™ื•ืŸ ื”ื•ื ื ื•ืฉื ื›-2000 ืื ืฉื™ื.
18:47
It travels on rails
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ื”ื•ื ื ื•ืกืข ืขืœ ืžืกื™ืœื”
18:49
down a suburban road,
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ื‘ื›ื‘ื™ืฉื™ ื”ืคืจื‘ืจื™ื,
18:51
and the cars travel underneath it.
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ื•ื”ืžื›ื•ื ื™ื•ืช ื‘ื›ื‘ื™ืฉ ื ื•ืกืขื•ืช ืชื—ืชื™ื•.
18:54
And it does speeds of up to about 100 miles an hour.
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ื•ื”ื•ื ืžืื™ืฅ ืœืžื”ื™ืจื•ืช ืฉืœ ื›-160 ืงืž"ืฉ.
18:57
Now this is the way things are going to move,
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ื•ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื”ื“ืจืš ื‘ื” ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืขืชื™ื“ื™ื ืœื ื•ืข,
19:00
because China has a very specific problem,
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ื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉืœืกื™ืŸ ื™ืฉ ื‘ืขื™ื” ืกืคืฆื™ืคื™ืช,
19:02
which is different from Europe
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ืฉื”ื™ื ืฉื•ื ื” ืžืื™ืจื•ืคื”
19:04
and different from the United States:
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ื•ืฉื•ื ื” ืžืืจืฆื•ืช ื”ื‘ืจื™ืช.
19:06
China has huge numbers of people and no space.
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ื‘ืกื™ืŸ ื™ืฉ ืžืกืคืจ ืขืฆื•ื ืฉืœ ืื ืฉื™ื ื•ื—ืกืš ื‘ืžืจื—ื‘.
19:09
So this is a solution to a situation
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ื•ื–ื”ื• ืคืชืจื•ืŸ ืœืžืฆื‘
19:11
where China's going to have
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ืฉื‘ื• ืœืกื™ืŸ ื™ื”ื™ื•
19:13
many, many, many cities
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ื”ืžื•ืŸ ื”ืžื•ืŸ ื”ืžื•ืŸ ืขืจื™ื
19:15
over 20 million people.
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ื™ื•ืชืจ ืž-20 ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ืื ืฉื™ื.
19:17
Okay, so how would I like to finish?
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ืื•ืงื™ื™, ืื– ืื™ืš ืืจืฆื” ืœืกื™ื™ื?
19:20
Well, what should our attitude be
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ืžื” ื”ื’ื™ืฉื” ืฉืœื ื• ืืžื•ืจื” ืœื”ื™ื•ืช
19:23
towards this world
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ื›ืœืคื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื ื”ื–ื”
19:26
that we see
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ืฉืื ื• ืจื•ืื™ื
19:28
very rapidly developing
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ืžืชืคืชื— ื‘ืžื”ื™ืจื•ืช ืื“ื™ืจื”
19:30
before us?
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ืœื ื’ื“ ืขื™ื ื™ื ื•?
19:33
I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it.
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ืื ื• ืกื‘ื•ืจ ื›ื™ ื™ื”ื™ื• ืœื›ืš ื”ืฉืœื›ื•ืช ื˜ื•ื‘ื•ืช ื•ื™ื”ื™ื• ืœื›ืš ื”ืฉืœื›ื•ืช ืจืขื•ืช.
19:36
But I want to argue, above all,
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ืืš ืื ื™ ืžื‘ืงืฉ ืœื˜ืขื•ืŸ, ืžืขืœ ื”ื›ืœ,
19:38
a big-picture positive for this world.
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ืขืœ ืชืžื•ื ื” ื—ื™ื•ื‘ื™ืช ืžืื“ ื‘ืขื‘ื•ืจ ื”ืขื•ืœื.
19:43
For 200 years,
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ื‘ืžืฉืš 200 ืฉื ื™ื,
19:45
the world was essentially governed
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ื”ืขื•ืœื ื ืฉืœื˜, ืœืžืขืฉื”,
19:51
by a fragment of the human population.
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ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ื—ืœืงื™ืง ืžืื›ื•ืœื•ืกื™ื™ืช ื”ืขื•ืœื.
19:55
That's what Europe and North America represented.
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ื”ื—ืœืง ืฉืื•ืชื• ืžื™ื™ืฆื’ื•ืช ืื™ืจื•ืคื” ื•ืืจืฆื•ืช ื”ื‘ืจื™ืช.
19:59
The arrival of countries
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ื”ื”ื’ืขื” ืฉืœ ืืจืฆื•ืช
20:01
like China and India --
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ื›ืžื• ืกื™ืŸ ื•ื”ื•ื“ื• --
20:03
between them 38 percent of the world's population --
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ืฉื‘ื”ืŸ 38% ืžืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ืช ื”ืขื•ืœื --
20:05
and others like Indonesia and Brazil and so on,
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ื•ื ื•ืกืคื•ืช ื›ืžื• ืื™ื ื“ื•ื ื–ื™ื” ื•ื‘ืจื–ื™ืœ ื•ื›ืŸ ื”ืœืื”,
20:11
represent the most important single act
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ืžื™ื™ืฆื’ื•ืช ืืช ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื™ ื”ื—ืฉื•ื‘ ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ
20:14
of democratization
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ืฉืœ ื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื–ืฆื™ื”
20:16
in the last 200 years.
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ื‘-200 ื”ืฉื ื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช.
20:18
Civilizations and cultures,
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ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื•ืช ื•ืชืจื‘ื•ื™ื•ืช,
20:20
which had been ignored, which had no voice,
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ืืฉืจ ื”ืชืขืœืžื• ืžื”ืŸ, ืฉื”ื™ื• ื—ืกืจื•ืช ืงื•ืœ,
20:23
which were not listened to, which were not known about,
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ืืฉืจ ืœื ื”ืงืฉื™ื‘ื• ืœืงื•ืœืŸ, ืืฉืจ ืœื ื™ื“ืขื• ืื•ื“ื•ืชืŸ,
20:25
will have a different sort
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ืขืชื™ื“ื•ืช ืœื–ื›ื•ืช
20:27
of representation in this world.
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ื‘ื™ื™ืฆื•ื’ ื—ื“ืฉ ื‘ืขื•ืœื.
20:30
As humanists, we must welcome, surely,
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ื›ื”ื•ืžื ื™ืกื˜ื™ื, ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœืงื‘ืœ, ื‘ื•ื•ื“ืื™,
20:32
this transformation,
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ืืช ื”ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ื”ื–ื”.
20:34
and we will have to learn
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ื•ื™ื”ื™ื” ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœืœืžื•ื“
20:36
about these civilizations.
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ืขืœ ื”ืฆื™ื•ื•ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื•ืช ื”ืœืœื•.
20:38
This big ship here
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ื”ืกืคื™ื ื” ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœื” ื›ืืŸ
20:41
was the one sailed in by Zheng He
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ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ื–ื• ืฉื”ืคืœื™ื’ื” ื‘ืคื™ืงื•ื“ื• ืฉืœ ื’'ื ื’-ื—ื”
20:43
in the early 15th century
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ื‘ืชื—ื™ืœืช ื”ืžืื” ื”-15
20:45
on his great voyages
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ื‘ืžืกืขื• ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœ
20:47
around the South China Sea, the East China Sea
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ืกื‘ื™ื‘ ื™ื ืกื™ืŸ ื”ื“ืจื•ืžื™, ื™ื ืกื™ืŸ ื”ืžื–ืจื—ื™
20:50
and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa.
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ื•ืœืื•ืจืš ื”ืื•ืงื™ื™ื ื•ืก ื”ื”ื•ื“ื™, ืืœ ืžื–ืจื— ืืคืจื™ืงื”.
20:53
The little boat in front of it
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ื”ืกื™ืจื” ื”ืงื˜ื ื” ืฉืœืคื ื™ื”
20:57
was the one in which, 80 years later,
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ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ื”ืกืคื™ื ื”, ืฉืฉืžื•ื ื™ื ืฉื ื” ืœืื—ืจ ืžื›ืŸ,
20:59
Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic.
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ื›ืจื™ืกื˜ื•ืคืจ ืงื•ืœื•ืžื‘ื•ืก ื—ืฆื” ื‘ื” ืืช ื”ืื•ืงื™ื™ื ื•ืก ื”ืื˜ืœื ื˜ื™.
21:02
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
21:04
Or, look carefully
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ืื•, ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื• ื”ื™ื˜ื‘
21:06
at this silk scroll
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ืžื’ื™ืœืช ืžืฉื™
21:08
made by ZhuZhou
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ืฉืฆื•ื™ื™ืจื” ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ื’'ื•ื’'ื•
21:11
in 1368.
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ื‘ืฉื ืช 1368.
21:14
I think they're playing golf.
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉื”ื ืžืฉื—ืงื™ื ื’ื•ืœืฃ.
21:16
Christ, the Chinese even invented golf.
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ืืœื•ื”ื™ื, ื”ืกื™ื ื™ื ืืคื™ืœื• ื”ืžืฆื™ืื• ืืช ื”ื’ื•ืœืฃ.
21:19
Welcome to the future. Thank you.
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ื‘ืจื•ื›ื™ื ื”ื‘ืื™ื ืœืขืชื™ื“. ืชื•ื“ื” ืœื›ื.
21:22
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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