Ben Goldacre: Battling Bad Science

788,038 views ใƒป 2011-09-30

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Jeong-Lan Kinser ๊ฒ€ํ† : Bianca Lee
00:15
So I'm a doctor, but I kind of slipped sideways into research,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ์š”, ์ €๋Š” ์˜์‚ฌ๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ €๋Š” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ณ„๋กœ ๋ฏธ๋„๋Ÿฌ์ ธ ๋“ค์–ด์™€
00:18
and now I'm an epidemiologist.
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์ด์ œ๋Š” ์—ญํ•™์ž(epidemiologist)๊ฐ€ ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
00:20
And nobody really knows what epidemiology is.
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ๋Š” ์•„๋ฌด๋„ ์—ญํ•™์ด ๋ญ”์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ชฐ๋ผ์š”
00:22
Epidemiology is the science of how we know in the real world
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์—ญํ•™ (epidemiology)์€ ์ด ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ๋ฌด์–ธ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ์ด๋กœ์šด์ง€ ํ•ด๋กœ์šด์ง€
00:25
if something is good for you or bad for you.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ณผํ•™์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
00:27
And it's best understood through example
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ๋ง๋„ ์•ˆ๋˜๊ณ  ๊ดด์งœ๊ฐ™์€ ๋‰ด์Šค ํ—ค๋“œ๋ผ์ธ์˜ ๊ณผํ•™๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€
00:29
as the science of those crazy, wacky newspaper headlines.
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ž˜ ์ดํ•ด๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
00:34
And these are just some of the examples.
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์ด๊ฑด ๋ช‡๊ฐ€์ง€์˜ ์˜ˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
00:36
These are from the Daily Mail.
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์ด๊ฑด ๋ฐ์ผ๋ฆฌ ๋ฉ”์ผ (Daily Mail)์— ๋‚œ ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ชจ๋“  ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์€ ์ด๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๋น„์Šทํ•œ ์‹ ๋ฌธ์ด ์žˆ์ฃ 
00:38
Every country in the world has a newspaper like this.
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ์ด ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ์›€์ง์ด์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ๋ฌผ์ฒด๋“ค์„
00:40
It has this bizarre, ongoing philosophical project
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์•”์„ ์•ผ๊ธฐ์‹œํ‚ค๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๋ฐฉ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฌผ์ฒด๋กœ
00:43
of dividing all the inanimate objects in the world
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๋ถ„๋ฅ˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ธ ๊ดด์ƒํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ๋„ ์ง€์†์ ์ธ ์ฒ ํ•™ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
00:45
into the ones that either cause or prevent cancer.
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00:47
Here are some of the things they said cause cancer:
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์ตœ๊ทผ์— ์•”์„ ์•ผ๊ธฐ์‹œํ‚จ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•œ ๋ช‡๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:
์ดํ˜ผ, ์™€์ด-ํŒŒ์ด (Wi-Fi), ์„ธ๋ฉด๋„๊ตฌ, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ปคํ”ผ
00:50
divorce, Wi-Fi, toiletries and coffee.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์•”์„ ์˜ˆ๋ฐฉํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•œ ๋ช‡๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
00:52
Some things they say prevent cancer:
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๋นต๊ป์งˆ, ๊ณ ์ถ”, ๊ฐ์ดˆ, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ปคํ”ผ
00:54
crusts, red pepper, licorice and coffee.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ์ด๋ฏธ ๋ชจ์ˆœ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š”๊ฑธ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
00:56
So you can see there are contradictions.
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์ปคํ”ผ๋Š” ์•”์„ ์•ผ๊ธฐ์‹œํ‚ค๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์˜ˆ๋ฐฉํ•˜๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
00:58
Coffee both causes and prevents cancer.
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๊ณ„์† ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์ฝ์–ด๊ฐ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ,
01:00
As you start to read on, you can see
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01:01
that maybe there's some political valence behind some of this.
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์ด ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ์—๋Š” ์ •์น˜์  ๋ฒ ์ผ๊ฐ™์€๊ฒŒ ๋“œ๋ฆฌ์›Œ์ ธ ์žˆ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š”๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ๊ฒŒ๋˜์ฃ 
01:04
For women, housework prevents breast cancer,
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์—ฌ์„ฑ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”, ๊ฐ€์‚ฌ์ผ์ด ์œ ๋ฐฉ์•”์„ ์˜ˆ๋ฐฉํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ,
01:06
but for men, shopping could make you impotent.
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๋‚จ์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”, ์‡ผํ•‘์ด ๋ฐœ๊ธฐ๋ถ€์ „์„ ์ผ์œผํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:09
(Laughter)
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ์˜ ๊ณผํ•™์„ ํ›„๋ฒผ
01:10
So we know that we need to start unpicking the science behind this.
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์ž˜๋ชป์งœ์ง„ ๋ฐ”๋Š˜๋•€์„ ํ’€๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:15
And what I hope to show is that unpicking the evidence behind dodgy claims
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ณด์—ฌ๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€๊ฒƒ์€
์ฑ…๋žต์ ์ธ ์ฃผ์žฅ์„ ํ›„๋ฒผ ๋ฐ”๋Š˜๋•€์„ ํ‘ธ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ,
์ฑ…๋žต์ ์ธ ์ฃผ์žฅ ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ์˜ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ํ›„๋ฒผ ๋ฐ”๋Š˜๋•€์„ ํ‘ธ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€,
01:21
isn't a kind of nasty, carping activity;
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ํ˜•ํŽธ์—†์ด ํŠธ์ง‘์žก๋Š” ํ™œ๋™์˜ ์ข…๋ฅ˜๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค;
01:24
it's socially useful.
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ์‚ฌํšŒ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์œ ์šฉํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ,
01:26
But it's also an extremely valuable explanatory tool,
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๋˜ํ•œ ๊ทน๋„๋กœ ๊ฐ€์น˜์žˆ๋Š”
์„ค๋ช…์˜ ์ˆ˜๋‹จ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:30
because real science is about critically appraising the evidence
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์‹ค์ œ ๊ณผํ•™์€
๋ˆ„๊ตฐ๊ฐ€์˜ ์ง€์œ„๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ๋น„ํŒ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:33
for somebody else's position.
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๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ํ•™์ˆ  ์ €๋„์—์„œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์ผ์ด์ง€์š”
01:35
That's what happens in academic journals,
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๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ํ•™์ˆ  ์ปจํผ๋Ÿฐ์Šค์—์„œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์ผ์ด์ง€์š”
01:37
it's what happens at academic conferences --
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์ˆ˜์ˆ ํ›„ ํšŒ๋ณต์‹ค ๋ณ‘์‹ค์—์„œ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋Š” ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ดํ›„์˜ ์งˆ์˜์‘๋‹ต (Q&A) ์‹œ๊ฐ„์€
01:39
the Q&A session after a postdoc presents data is often a bloodbath.
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์ข…์ข… ํ”ผ๋ฐ”๋‹ค๋ฅผ ์ด๋ฃน๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:42
And nobody minds that; we actively welcome it.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์•„๋ฌด๋„ ๊ฐœ์˜์น˜ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ ๊ทน์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ทธ๊ฑธ ํ™˜์˜ํ•˜์ฃ 
01:44
It's like a consenting intellectual S&M activity.
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ๋งˆ์น˜ ์ง€์„ฑ์ ์ธ ๊ฐ€ํ•™ํ”ผํ•™์ฆ (Sado-Masochism) ํ™œ๋™์„ ๋™์˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:47
(Laughter)
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ณด์—ฌ๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ณ ์ž ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€
01:49
So what I'm going to show you is all of the main things,
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์ฆ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœํ•œ ์•ฝ์ œ์ธ
์ œ ํ•™๋ฌธ๋ถ„์•ผ ์›๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ฃผ์š” ํŠน์ง•๋“ค์˜ ์ „๋ถ€์ธ,
01:52
all of the main features of my discipline, evidence-based medicine.
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์ฃผ์š”์ ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:55
And I will talk you through all of these and demonstrate how they work,
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์ €๋Š” ์ด ๋ชจ๋“ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์˜ ์ „ ๊ณผ์ •์„ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•ด๋“œ๋ฆด ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ 
๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ž‘์šฉํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ๋ณด์—ฌ๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:59
exclusively using examples of people getting stuff wrong.
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ํŠน๋ณ„ํžˆ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ž˜๋ชป ์ดํ•ดํ•˜๋Š” ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•ด์„œ์š”
02:02
We'll start with the absolute weakest form of evidence known to man,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์•Œ๋ ค์ง„ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์ ˆ๋Œ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์•ฝํ•œ ํ˜•ํƒœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๊ฒ ๋Š”๋ฐ,
๊ทธ๊ฑด ๊ถŒ์œ„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:06
and that is authority.
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๊ณผํ•™์—์„œ๋Š”, ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์˜ ์ด๋ฆ„์— ๊ธ€์ž๊ฐ€ ๋ช‡๊ฐœ ๋“ค์–ด์žˆ๋Š”์ง€ ์ƒ๊ด€ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:08
In science, we don't care how many letters you have after your name --
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๊ณผํ•™์—์„œ๋Š”, ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์–ด๋–ค๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ฏฟ๋Š” ์ด์œ ๋ฅผ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:11
we want to know what your reasons are for believing something.
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๋ญ”๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ์ด๋“์ด ๋˜๋Š”์ง€โ™ช
02:14
How do you know that something is good for us or bad for us?
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ํ•ด๋กœ์šด์ง€ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์•„์‹ญ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
02:17
But we're also unimpressed by authority because it's so easy to contrive.
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๋˜ํ•œ ๊ถŒ์œ„๊ฐ€ ๋Œ€๋‹จํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋ฐ,
์™œ๋ƒ๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์‰ฝ๊ฒŒ ๊ณ ์•ˆ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ 
02:21
This is somebody called Dr. Gillian McKeith, PhD,
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์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ์งˆ๋ฆฌ์•ˆ ๋งฅํ‚ค์Šค (Gillian McKeith) ๋ฐ•์‚ฌ์ธ๋ฐ,
๋˜๋Š”, ๊ทธ๋…€์˜ ์˜๋ฃŒ๊ณ„์—์„œ์˜ ์™„์ „ํ•œ ํ˜ธ์นญ์€, ์งˆ๋ฆฌ์•ˆ ๋งฅํ‚ค์Šค(Gillian McKeith)์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:24
or, to give her full medical title, Gillian McKeith.
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
02:27
(Laughter)
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๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งํ•˜์ž๋ฉด, ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์—๋Š” ์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๊ณผ ๋น„์Šทํ•œ ์–ด๋–ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:30
Again, every country has somebody like this.
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๊ทธ๋…€๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ TV ์‹์ด์š”๋ฒ• ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:32
She is our TV diet guru.
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02:33
She has five series of prime-time television,
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๊ทธ๋…€๋Š” ํ…”๋ ˆ๋น„์ ผ ํ™ฉ๊ธˆ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋Œ€์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ 5๊ฐœ ์‹œ๋ฆฌ์ฆˆ๋ฅผ ํ™•๋ณดํ•ด
02:36
giving out very lavish and exotic health advice.
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ํ˜ธํ™”๋กญ๊ณ  ์ด๊ตญ์ ์ธ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•์กฐ์–ธ์„ ๋ฒ ํ’‰๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:39
She, it turns out, has a non-accredited correspondence course PhD
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ํŒ๋ช…์ด ๋‚œ๊ฒƒ์€, ๊ทธ๋…€๋Š” ์•„๋ฉ”๋ฆฌ์นด ์–ด๋”˜๊ฐ€์—์„œ ์ธ์ฆ๋ฐ›์ง€ ์•Š์€
ํ†ต์‹ ๊ณผ์ •์˜ ๋ฐ•์‚ฌํ•™์œ„๋ฅผ ๋•„์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:43
from somewhere in America.
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02:44
She also boasts that she's a certified professional member
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๊ทธ๋…€๋Š” ๋˜ํ•œ ๊ทธ๋…€๊ฐ€ ์•„์ฃผ ํ™”๋ คํ•˜๊ณ  ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กœ์šด
๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์˜์–‘ ์ƒ๋‹ด์ž ํ˜‘ํšŒ์˜
02:47
of the American Association of Nutritional Consultants,
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๊ณต์ธ ์ „๋ฌธ ํšŒ์›์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ž๋ž‘ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:49
which sounds very glamorous; you get a certificate.
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๋ชจ๋“ ๊ฒƒ์— ์ž๊ฒฉ์ฆ์„ ๋ฐ›์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:52
This one belongs to my dead cat, Hettie. She was a horrible cat.
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์ด ์ž๊ฒฉ์ฆ์€ ์ €์˜ ์ฃฝ์€ ๊ณ ์–‘์ด์ธ ํ—คํ‹ฐ (Hetti) ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ›์€ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋…€๋Š” ๋”์ฐํ•œ ๊ณ ์–‘์ด์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
๋ˆ„๊ตฌ๋‚˜ ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์„œ, ์–‘์‹์„ ์ ์–ด๋„ฃ๊ณ ,
02:55
You go to the website, fill out the form,
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๋ฏธํ™” 60 ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ์ง€๋ถˆํ•˜๋ฉด, ์šฐํŽธ์œผ๋กœ ๋„์ฐฉํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:57
give them $60, it arrives in the post.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋งŒ์ด ์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ๋ฐฑ์น˜๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ๋„ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:59
That's not the only reason we think this person is an idiot.
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๊ทธ๋…€๋Š” ๋˜ํ•œ ๋” ๋‚˜์•„๊ฐ€์„œ ๋งํ•˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ,
03:01
She also says things like eat lots of dark green leaves,
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์ง„๋…น์ƒ‰์˜ ์ดํŒŒ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋งŽ์ด ๋จน์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ,
03:04
they contain chlorophyll and really oxygenate your blood.
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ ์•ˆ์—๋Š” ์—ฝ๋ก์†Œ๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์ด ํฌํ•จ๋˜์„œ, ๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ํ”ผ๋ฅผ ์ •๋ง ์‚ฐํ™”์‹œํ‚จ๋‹ค๊ตฌ์š”
ํ•™๊ต ์ƒ๋ฌผํ•™์„ ๋งˆ์นœ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด๋ผ๋ฉด ๋ˆ„๊ตฌ๋ผ๋„ ๊ธฐ์–ตํ•˜๋“ฏ
03:07
And anybody who's done school biology remembers
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์—ฝ๋ก์†Œ์™€ ์—ฝ๋ก์ฒด๊ฐ€
03:09
that chlorophyll and chloroplasts only make oxygen in sunlight,
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ํ–‡๋น›์—์„œ๋งŒ ์‚ฐ์†Œ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ณ 
03:12
and it's quite dark in your bowels after you've eaten spinach.
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์‹œ๊ธˆ์น˜๋ฅผ ๋จน๊ณ ๋‚œ ๋‹ค์Œ์— ๋Œ€๋ณ€์€ ์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ ์ง„ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
๋‹ค์Œ, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ ์ ˆํ•œ ๊ณผํ•™, ์ ์ ˆํ•œ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
03:16
Next, we need proper science, proper evidence.
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03:18
So: "Red wine can help prevent breast cancer."
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ, "์ ํฌ๋„๋Š” ์œ ๋ฐฉ์•”์„ ์˜ˆ๋ฐฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."
์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ฐ์ผ๋ฆฌ ์˜๊ตญ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ์˜ ํ…”๋ ˆ๊ทธ๋ผํ”„์—์„œ ํ—ค๋“œ๋ผ์ธ์—์„œ ๋”ฐ์˜จ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
03:21
This is a headline from The Daily Telegraph in the UK.
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"ํ•˜๋ฃจ์— ์ ํฌ๋„์ฃผ ํ•œ์ž”์€ ์œ ๋ฐฉ์•” ์˜ˆ๋ฐฉ์— ๋„์›€์ด ๋œ๋‹ค."
03:23
"A glass of red wine a day could help prevent breast cancer."
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์•„๊ฐ€์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ฑฐ๊ธฐ์„œ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€
03:26
So you find this paper, and find that it is a real piece of science.
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ํ•œ์ชผ๊ฐ€๋ฆฌ์˜ ์‹ค์ œ ๊ณผํ•™์ด์ฃ 
03:29
It's a description of the changes in the behavior of one enzyme
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ์–ด๋–ค ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์†Œ์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฒค์น˜์œ„์˜ ์ ‘์‹œ์—๋‹ค๊ฐ€
03:32
when you drip a chemical extracted from some red grape skin
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์กฐ๊ธˆ์˜ ์ ํฌ๋„ ๊ป์งˆ์—์„œ ์ถ”์ถœํ•œ ํ™”ํ•™๋ฌผ์„
์•ฝ๊ฐ„์˜ ์•”์„ธํฌ์— ๋–จ์–ด๋œจ๋ ธ์„๋•Œ
03:36
onto some cancer cells
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03:37
in a dish on a bench in a laboratory somewhere.
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ํ•œ๊ฐœ์˜ ํšจ์†Œ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”์˜ ์„ค๋ช…์ด์ฃ 
03:40
And that's a really useful thing to describe in a scientific paper.
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ๊ณผํ•™์ ์ธ ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ์—
์„ค๋ช…ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ •๋ง๋กœ ์œ ์šฉํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ผ์ง€๋Š” ๋ชจ๋ฅด์ง€๋งŒ,
03:44
But on the question of your own personal risk of getting breast cancer
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๋งŒ์ผ ์ ํฌ๋„์ฃผ๋ฅผ ๋งˆ์‹œ๋ฉด
์œ ๋ฐฉ์•”์— ๊ฑธ๋ฆฌ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฐœ์ธ์  ์œ„ํ—˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์˜๋ฌธ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด
03:48
if you drink red wine,
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์•Œ๋ ค์ฃผ๋Š๋ƒ ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€ ์ ˆ๋Œ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ฝ”๋”ฑ์ง€ ๊ฐ™์ด ํ•˜์ฐฎ์€ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
03:49
it tells you absolutely bugger all.
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ, ํŒ๋ช…์ด ๋œ ๋ฐ”๋กœ๋Š”
03:51
Actually, it turns out that your risk of breast cancer
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๋งค๋ฒˆ ๋งˆ์‹œ๋Š” ์ˆ ์˜ ์–‘์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ
03:53
increases slightly with every amount of alcohol you drink.
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์œ ๋ฐฉ์•”์˜ ์œ„ํ—˜์€ ์•ฝ๊ฐ„์”ฉ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
03:56
So what we want are studies in real human people.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์›ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€ ์‹ค์ œ ์ธ๊ฐ„์—๊ฒŒ์„œ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ฃ 
04:00
And here's another example.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์˜ˆ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
04:02
This is from Britain's "leading" diet nutritionist in the Daily Mirror,
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ฐ์ผ๋ฆฌ ๋ฏธ๋Ÿฌ (Daily Mirror)์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์˜๊ตญ์˜ ์„ ๋ฐœ์  ์‹์ด์š”๋ฒ•๊ณผ ์˜์–‘์‚ฌ์ธ๋ฐ
๊ทธ๊ฑด ๋‘๋ฒˆ์งธ๋กœ ์ž˜ ํŒ”๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์‹ ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
04:06
our second-biggest selling newspaper.
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"2001๋…„์˜ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š”
04:08
"An Australian study in 2001 found that olive oil,
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๊ณผ์ผ, ์•ผ์ฑ„์™€ ๋‘๋ฅ˜์™€ ๋”๋ถˆ์–ด ์˜ฌ๋ฆฌ๋ธŒ์œ ๋ฅผ ์กฐํ•ฉํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€
04:10
in combination with fruits, vegetables and pulses,
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ํ”ผ๋ถ€ ๋…ธํ™”์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ธก์ •ํ• ๋งŒํ•œ ๋ณด๋กœ๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค"
04:12
offers measurable protection against skin wrinklings,"
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๊ทธ ๋‹ค์Œ์— ์‹ ๋ฌธ์ด ์กฐ์–ธ์„ ๋ฒ ํ‘ธ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€:
04:15
and give the advice:
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"๋งŒ์ผ ์˜ฌ๋ฆฌ๋ธŒ์œ ์™€ ์•ผ์ฑ„๋ฅผ ๋จน์œผ๋ฉด, ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ๋” ์ ์€ ํ”ผ๋ถ€์ฃผ๋ฆ„์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค"
04:16
"If you eat olive oil and vegetables, you'll have fewer wrinkles."
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ ๋Š” ์•„์ฃผ ์œ ์ตํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์‹ ๋ฌธ์„ ์ฐพ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
04:19
They helpfully tell you how to find the paper,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ทธ ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์œผ๋ฉด, ์•Œ๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ด€์ธก์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
04:22
and what you find is an observational study.
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๋ช…๋ฐฑํžˆ ๊ทธ ๋ˆ„๊ตฌ๋„
04:24
Obviously, nobody has been able to go back to 1930,
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1930๋…„๋Œ€๋กœ ๋˜๋Œ์•„๊ฐˆ ์ˆ˜ ์—†์ฃ 
์‚ฐ๋ถ€์ธ๊ณผ ๋ณ‘๋™ํ•˜๋‚˜์—์„œ ํƒœ์–ด๋‚œ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ์ฐพ์•„์„œ
04:27
get all the people born in one maternity unit,
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04:29
and half of them eat lots of fruit and veg and olive oil,
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๊ทธ๋“ค ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์€ ๋‹ค๋Ÿ‰์˜ ๊ณผ์ผ๊ณผ ์•ผ์ฑ„์™€ ์˜ฌ๋ฆฌ๋ธŒ์œ ๋ฅผ ๋จน๊ณ 
๊ทธ ๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์€ ๋งฅ๋„๋„๋“œ๋ฅผ ๋จน์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
04:32
half of them eat McDonald's,
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04:33
and then we see how many wrinkles you've got later.
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๊ทธ๋‹ค์Œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ณด๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ทธ ์ดํ›„์— ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋งŽ์€ ์ฃผ๋ฆ„์„ ์–ป๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ๋Š”์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ 
ํ˜„์žฌ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์–ด๋–ค ๋ชจ์Šต์ธ์ง€ ์Šค๋ƒ…์ƒท์„ ์ฐ์„ ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์–ด์š”
04:36
You have to take a snapshot of how people are now.
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์•Œ๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€, ๋ฌผ๋ก 
04:38
And what you find is, of course:
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์•ผ์ฑ„์™€ ์˜ฌ๋ฆฌ๋ธŒ์œ ๋ฅผ ๋จน๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋” ์ ์€ ์–‘์˜ ์ฃผ๋ฆ„์„ ์ง€๋…”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
04:40
people who eat veg and olive oil have fewer wrinkles.
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04:42
But that's because people who eat fruit and veg and olive oil are freaks --
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ณผ์ผ๊ณผ ์•ผ์ฑ„์™€ ์˜ฌ๋ฆฌ๋ธŒ์œ ๋ฅผ ๋จน๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€
๊ดด์งœ๋“ค์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ •์ƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ์˜ˆ์š”, ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
04:46
they're not normal, they're like you; they come to events like this.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ TED์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ด๋ฒคํŠธ์— ์˜ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
04:50
(Laughter)
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์‚ฌ์น˜์Šค๋Ÿฝ๊ณ , ๋ถ€์ž์ด๊ณ , ์˜ฅ์™ธ์˜ ์ง์—…์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š” ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด ์ ๊ณ ,
04:51
They're posh, they're wealthy, less likely to have outdoor jobs,
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์œก์ฒด ๋…ธ๋™์„ ํ•˜๋Š” ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด ์ ๊ณ ,
04:54
less likely to do manual labor,
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04:55
they have better social support, are less likely to smoke;
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๋” ๋‚˜์€ ์‚ฌํšŒ์ง€์›์„ ๋ฐ›๊ณ , ๋‹ด๋ฐฐ๋ฅผ ํ”ผ์šธ ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด ์ ์ฃ 
๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ „์ฒด์  ๋ฌด๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋งค๋ ฅ์ ์ด๊ณ , ์„œ๋กœ ๋งž๋ฌผ๋ ค์žˆ๋Š”
04:58
for a host of fascinating, interlocking
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์‚ฌํšŒ์ , ์ •์น˜์ , ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฌธํ™”์ ์ธ ์ด์œ ๋“ค๋กœ,
05:00
social, political and cultural reasons,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ํ”ผ๋ถ€ ์ฃผ๋ฆ„์„ ๊ฐ€์งˆ ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด ๋‚ฎ์ฃ 
05:02
they're less likely to have wrinkles.
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ์•ผ์ฑ„์™€ ์˜ฌ๋ฆฌ๋ธŒ์œ ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
05:04
That doesn't mean it's the vegetables or olive oil.
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
05:06
(Laughter)
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด์ƒ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ์›ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์‹คํ—˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
05:08
So ideally, what you want to do is a trial.
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05:10
People think they're familiar with the idea of a trial.
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๋ชจ๋‘๋‹ค ์ž์‹ ๋“ค์ด ์‹คํ—˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฐœ๋…์— ์นœ์ˆ™ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
์‹คํ—˜์€ ์•„์ฃผ ์˜ค๋ž˜๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์‹คํ—˜์€ ๋‹ค๋‹ˆ์—˜์„œ 1์žฅ 12์ ˆ์— ๋‚˜์˜ค๋Š” ์„ฑ๊ฒฝ์ฑ…์—์„œ์˜€์ฃ 
05:13
Trials are old; the first one was in the Bible, Daniel 1:12.
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ์•„์ฃผ ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ๋ฐ๋ ค๋‹ค๊ฐ€, ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๋ฅด๊ณ ,
05:16
It's straightforward: take a bunch of people, split them in half,
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ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ๊ทธ๋ฃน์„ ํ•œ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ณ , ๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€ ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ๊ทธ๋ฃน์„ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ณ 
05:19
treat one group one way, the other group, the other way.
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์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์•ฝ๊ฐ„ ํ๋ฅธํ›„, ๊ทธ๋“ค์„ ์ถ”์ ํ•ด์„œ
05:21
A while later, you see what happened to each of them.
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๊ทธ๋“ค ๊ฐ๊ฐ์—๊ฒŒ ๋ฌด์Šจ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ๋Š”์ง€ ์•Œ์•„๋ณด๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์‹คํ—˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ•ด๋“œ๋ฆฌ๋ ค ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ
05:24
I'm going to tell you about one trial,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ง€๋‚œ 10๋…„๋™์•ˆ ์˜๊ตญ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ ๋‰ด์Šค ๋ฏธ๋””์•„์—์„œ
05:26
which is probably the most well-reported trial
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ํ•„๊ฒฝ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ž˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ๋œ ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ์ผ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
05:28
in the UK news media over the past decade.
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์ด๊ฑด ์ƒ์„ ์˜ค์ผ ์•ฝ์˜ ์‹คํ—˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
05:30
This is the trial of fish oil pills.
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๊ทธ ์ฃผ์žฅ์€ ์ƒ์„ ์œ ์•ฝ์ด ์ค‘์‹ฌ์ด ๋˜๋Š” ์–ด๋ฆฐ์ด๋“ค์˜
05:32
The claim: fish oil pills improve school performance and behavior
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ํ•™๊ต ์ˆ˜ํ–‰๊ณผ ํ–‰๋™์„ ํ–ฅ์ƒ์‹œ์ผฐ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
05:35
in mainstream children.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ๋งํ•˜๊ธธ, "์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์‹คํ—˜์„ ๋งˆ์ณค์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
05:36
They said, "We did a trial.
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05:37
All the previous ones were positive, this one will be too."
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์ด์ „์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‹คํ—˜๋“ค์ด ๊ธ์ •์ ์ด์—ˆ๊ณ , ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด ์‹คํ—˜๋„ ๊ธ์ •์ ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€์š”"
๊ทธ ๋ง์€ ํ•ญ์ƒ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ์šธ๋ฆฐ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ์•„์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
05:40
That should ring alarm bells:
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์‹คํ—˜์˜ ๋Œ€๋‹ต์„ ์ด๋ฏธ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด, ๊ทธ ์‹คํ—˜์€ ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•„์•ผ ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ 
05:42
if you know the answer to your trial, you shouldn't be doing one.
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๋””์ž์ธ์œผ๋กœ ๊ทธ ์‹คํ—˜์„ ์กฐ์ž‘ํ–ˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜,
05:45
Either you've rigged it by design,
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05:46
or you've got enough data so there's no need to randomize people anymore.
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์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์–ด์„œ ๋”์ด์ƒ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ์ž„์˜์ถ”์ถœํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ์‹คํ—˜์—์„œ ํ•˜๋ ค ํ–ˆ๋˜๊ฒƒ์€ ์ด๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
05:50
So this is what they were going to do in their trial:
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05:52
They were taking 3,000 children,
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3,000 ๋ช…์˜ ์–ด๋ฆฐ์ด๋“ค์„ ๋ฐ๋ ค๋‹ค๊ฐ€,
05:54
they were going to give them these huge fish oil pills, six of them a day,
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๋งŽ์€ ์ƒ์„ ์˜ค์ผ ์•ฝ์„ ์ค„ ์˜ˆ์ •์ด์—ˆ์ฃ ,
ํ•˜๋ฃจ์— 6๊ฐœ์”ฉ,
05:58
and then, a year later, measure their school exam performance
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  1๋…„ํ›„, ํ•™์ƒ๋“ค์˜ ํ•™๊ต์‹œํ—˜ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰์„ ์ธก์ •ํ•˜๋ ค๋Š” ์˜ˆ์ •์ด์—ˆ๊ณ 
06:01
and compare their performance
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์ด ํ•™๊ต ์‹œํ—˜ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰์„
06:03
against what they predicted their exam performance would have been
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๋งŒ์ผ ํ•™์ƒ๋“ค์ด ์•ฝ์„ ๋จน์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค๋ฉด
ํ•™์ƒ๋“ค์˜ ์‹œํ—˜์ˆ˜ํ–‰์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ๋˜์—ˆ์Œ์งํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๋น„๊ตํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:06
if they hadn't had the pills.
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06:08
Now, can anybody spot a flaw in this design?
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์ด ๋””์ž์ธ์— ํ—›์ ์„ ์งš์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ๊ณ„์‹ ๊ฐ€์š”?
06:11
(Laughter)
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์ž„์ƒ์‹คํ—˜๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋ก  ๊ต์ˆ˜๋Š”
06:12
And no professors of clinical trial methodology
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06:14
are allowed to answer this question.
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์ด ์งˆ๋ฌธ์— ๋Œ€๋‹ตํ•˜๋„๋ก ํ—ˆ๋ฝ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:16
So there's no control group.
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ํ†ต์ œ๊ฐ€ ์—†์–ด์š”; ํ†ต์ œ ๊ทธ๋ฃน์ด ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค;
06:18
But that sounds really techie, right? That's a technical term.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋“ค๋ฆฌ์ฃ 
๊ทธ๊ฑด ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ ์ธ ์šฉ์–ด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:21
The kids got the pills, and their performance improved.
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์–ด๋ฆฐ์ด๋“ค์ด ์•ฝ์„ ๋จน์—ˆ๊ณ , ๊ทธ ๋‹ค์Œ์— ๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰์ด ํ–ฅ์ƒ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:24
What else could it possibly be if it wasn't the pills?
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๋งŒ์ผ ๊ทธ ์•ฝ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์–ด๋–ค๊ฒƒ์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
๊ทธ ์•„์ด๋“ค์ด ์ž๋ผ๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ํ๋ฅด๋ฉด์„œ ๋ฐœ๋‹ฌํ•˜์ง€์š”
06:28
They got older; we all develop over time.
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06:30
And of course, there's the placebo effect,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฌผ๋ก , ํ”Œ๋ผ์‹œ๋ณด (placebo) ํšจ๊ณผ๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:32
one of the most fascinating things in the whole of medicine.
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์ด ํ”Œ๋ผ์‹œ๋ณด(placebo)ํšจ๊ณผ๋Š” ์ œ์•ฝ์˜ ์ „์ฒด์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋งค๋ ฅ์ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์ค‘์˜ ํ•˜๋‚˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
๊ทธ๊ฑด ์•ฝ์„๋จน์–ด์„œ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰๊ณผ ๊ณ ํ†ต์ด ๋” ๋‚˜์•„์ง€๋Š”๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ์˜ˆ์š”
06:35
It's not just taking a pill and performance or pain improving;
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋ฏฟ์Œ๊ณผ ์˜ˆ์ƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:38
it's about our beliefs and expectations, the cultural meaning of a treatment.
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ์น˜๋ฃŒ์˜ ๋ฌธํ™”์ ์ธ ์˜๋ฏธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ํ•œ ์ข…๋ฅ˜์˜ ํ”Œ๋ผ์‹œ๋ณด (placebo) ํšจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ๊ฒƒ์— ๋น„๊ตํ•œ
06:42
And this has been demonstrated in a whole raft of fascinating studies
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๋Œ€๋‹จํžˆ ๋งŽ์€ ๋งค๋ ฅ์ ์ธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋“ค์—์„œ ์ œ์‹œ๋˜์–ด์ง„ ๋ฐ” ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:45
comparing one kind of placebo against another.
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06:47
So we know, for example,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š”, ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด, ํ•˜๋ฃจ์— ๋‘๊ฐœ์˜ ์„คํƒ•์•ฝ์ด
06:48
that two sugar pills a day are a more effective treatment
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ํ•œ๊ฐœ์˜ ์„คํƒ•์•ฝ๋ณด๋‹ค ์œ„๊ถค์–‘์„ ์ œ๊ฑฐํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ
06:51
for gastric ulcers
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๋” ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์ธ ์ง€๋ฃŒ๋ฒ•์ด๋ผ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ์ง€์š”
06:52
than one sugar pill.
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๋‘๊ฐœ์˜ ์„คํƒ•์•ฝ์€ ํ•œ๊ฐœ์˜ ์„คํƒ•์•ฝ์„ ์ด๊น๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:54
Two sugar pills a day beats one a day.
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ํ„ฐ๋ฌด๋‹ˆ์—†๊ณ  ํ—ˆ๋ฌด๋งน๋ž‘ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ทธ๊ฑด ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
06:56
That's an outrageous and ridiculous finding, but it's true.
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06:58
We know from three different studies on three different types of pain
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์„ธ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ข…๋ฅ˜์˜ ๊ณ ํ†ต์—์„œ ์„ธ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ข…๋ฅ˜์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์•„๋Š”๋ฐ
๊ทธ๊ฑด ์†Œ๊ธˆ๋ฌผ ์ฃผ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์„คํƒ•์•ฝ์„ ๋ณต์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค,
07:02
that a saltwater injection is a more effective treatment
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๊ทธ ์•ˆ์— ์•ฝ์ด ๋“ค์–ด ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ฐ€์งœ ์•ฝ์„ ๋ณต์šฉํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์ด ๋” ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
07:04
than a sugar pill, a dummy pill with no medicine in it,
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07:07
not because the injection or pills do anything physically to the body,
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๊ทธ ์ฃผ์‚ฌ๋‚˜ ์•ฝ์ด ์‹ ์ฒด์— ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์–ด๋–ค ์ž‘์šฉ์„ ํ•ด์„œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
07:10
but because an injection feels like a much more dramatic intervention.
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๊ทธ ์ฃผ์‚ฌ๋Š” ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ๊ทน์ ์ธ ๊ฐœ์ž…์œผ๋กœ ๋Š๊ปด์ง€๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋ฏฟ์Œ๊ณผ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ€
07:14
So we know that our beliefs and expectations can be manipulated,
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์กฐ์ž‘๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑธ ์••๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
07:17
which is why we do trials where we control against a placebo,
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ”Œ๋ผ์‹œ๋ณด์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ํ†ต์ œํ•˜์—ฌ
์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์€ ์ง„์งœ ์น˜๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›๊ณ 
07:21
where one half of the people get the real treatment,
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์€ ํ”Œ๋ผ์‹œ๋ณด(placebo) ์น˜๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›๋Š”
07:23
and the other half get placebo.
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์‹คํ—˜์„ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ด์œ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
07:25
But that's not enough.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•„์š”
07:28
What I've just shown you are examples
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ง‰ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๊ป˜ ๋ณด์—ฌ๋“œ๋ฆฐ๊ฒƒ์€
07:30
of the very simple and straightforward ways
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์ €๋„๋ฆฌ์ŠคํŠธ์™€ ์Œ์‹ ๋ณด์กฐ์•ฝํ’ˆ ํ–‰์ƒ์ธ๊ณผ
07:32
that journalists and food supplement pill peddlers and naturopaths
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์‹ ๊ฒฝ์ฆํ™˜์ž๋“ค์ด
07:35
can distort evidence for their own purposes.
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๊ทธ๋“ค ์ž์‹ ์˜ ๋ชฉ์ ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ์™œ๊ณก์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์•„์ฃผ ๋‹จ์ˆœํ•˜๊ณ  ์ง์ ‘์ ์ธ ์˜ˆ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
07:38
What I find really fascinating
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•œ ์ •๋ง ๋งค๋ ฅ์ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์€
07:40
is that the pharmaceutical industry uses exactly the same kinds
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์ œ์•ฝ ์‚ฐ์—…์€
์ •ํ™•ํžˆ ๋˜‘๊ฐ™์€ ์†์ž„์ˆ˜์™€ ์ฑ…๋žต์ด์ง€๋งŒ,
07:43
of tricks and devices,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์˜ ์•ฝ๊ฐ„ ๋” ์„ธ๋ จ๋œ ํŒ์„
07:45
but slightly more sophisticated versions of them,
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07:47
in order to distort the evidence they give to doctors and patients,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์˜์‚ฌ๋“ค๊ณผ ํ™˜์ž๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๋Š” ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ์™œ๊ณกํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ 
๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ์น˜๋ช…์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
07:51
and which we use to make vitally important decisions.
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07:53
So firstly, trials against placebo:
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋จผ์ €, ์‹คํ—˜์€ ํ”Œ๋ผ์‹œ๋ณด (placebo)์— ๋ฐ˜ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:
๋ชจ๋“ ์ด๋“ค์ด ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๊ทธ ์‹คํ—˜์€
07:56
everybody thinks a trial should be a comparison
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์•ฝ์„ ํ”Œ๋ผ์‹œ๋ณด(placebo)์— ๋ฐ˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๋น„๊ต์—ฌ์•ผํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑธ ์•ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
07:58
of your new drug against placebo.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๋Œ€๋‹จํžˆ ๋งŽ์€ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ ๊ทธ๊ฑด ์˜ณ์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
08:00
But in a lot of situations that's wrong;
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์™œ๋ƒ๋ฉด ์ข…์ข… ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๋ฏธ ํ˜„์žฌ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋Œ€๋‹จํžˆ ์ข‹์€ ์น˜๋ฃŒ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์–ด์„œ
08:02
often, we already have a good treatment currently available.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋Œ€์•ˆ ์น˜๋ฃŒ๊ฐ€
08:05
So we don't want to know that your alternative new treatment
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์ „๋ฌด์ธ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋‚ซ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑธ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
08:08
is better than nothing,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋Œ€์•ˆ์น˜๋ฃŒ๊ฐ€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ข‹์€ ์น˜๋ฃŒ์ธ์ง€ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
08:09
but that it's better than the best available treatment we have.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ, ๋ฐ˜๋ณตํ•ด์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด
08:12
And yet, repeatedly, you consistently see people doing trials
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์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ํ”Œ๋ผ์‹œ๋ณด(placebo)์— ๋ฐ˜ํ•ด์„œ ์‹คํ—˜์„ ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
08:15
still against placebo.
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08:16
And you can get licensed to bring your drug to market
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์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š” ์ €๊ฐ™์€ ์˜์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ์“ธ๋ชจ์—†๋Š”
08:18
with only data showing that it's better than nothing,
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์ „๋ฌดํ•œ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋‚ซ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋Š” ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋ฉด
๋ˆ„๊ตฌ๋“  ์ž๊ฒฉ์ฆ์„ ๋ฐ›์•„์„œ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์•ฝ์„ ์‹œ์žฅ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์ ธ๊ฐˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
08:21
which is useless for a doctor like me trying to make a decision.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋งŒ์ด ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์กฐ์ž‘ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
08:24
But that's not the only way you can rig your data.
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๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์•ฝ์— ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ
08:26
You can also rig your data
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๋น„๊ตํ•˜๋Š” ์•ฝ์„ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ํ๊ธฐ๋ฌผ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ
08:28
by making the thing you compare your new drug against
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์กฐ์ž‘ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
08:30
really rubbish.
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08:31
You can give the competing drug in too low a dose,
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๊ฒฝ์Ÿํ•˜๋Š” ์•ฝ์˜ 1ํšŒ ๋ณต์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์•„์ฃผ ์กฐ๊ธˆ๋งŒ ์ค˜์„œ
์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ ์ ˆํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์น˜๋ฃŒ๋ฐ›์ง€ ์•Š๊ฒŒ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
08:34
so people aren't properly treated.
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๊ฒฝ์Ÿํ•˜๋Š” ์•ฝ์˜ 1ํšŒ ๋ณต์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์•„์ฃผ ๋งŽ์ด ์ค˜์„œ
08:36
You can give the competing drug in too high a dose,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋ถ€์ž‘์šฉ์ด ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
08:38
so people get side effects.
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08:39
And this is exactly what happened
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์ •์‹ ๋ถ„์—ด์ฆ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ
08:41
with antipsychotic medication for schizophrenia.
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ํ•ญ์ •์‹ ๋ณ‘์•ฝ์— ์ผ์–ด๋‚œ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ๊ทธ ์ผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
08:43
Twenty years ago, a new generation of antipsychotic drugs were brought in;
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20๋…„์ „์—, ํ•ญ ์ •์‹ ๋ณ‘์•ฝ์˜ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์„ธ๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ๋„์ž…๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ 
์•ฝ์†์€ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์—๋Š” ๋” ์ ์€ ๋ถ€์ž‘์šฉ์ด ์žˆ์„๊ฑฐ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
08:47
the promise was they would have fewer side effects.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ด ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์•ฝ์„
08:50
So people set about doing trials of the new drugs against the old drugs.
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์˜ค๋ž˜๋œ ์•ฝ์— ๋ฐ˜ํ•ด์„œ ์‹คํ—˜ํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ์ฐฉ์ˆ˜ํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
08:53
But they gave the old drugs in ridiculously high doses:
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์˜ค๋ž˜๋œ ์•ฝ์—๋Š” ํ„ฐ๋ฌด๋‹ˆ์—†์ด ๋†’์€ 1ํšŒ ๋ณต์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์„,
ํ• ๋กœํŽ˜๋ฆฌ๋Œ(holoperidol) ์„ ํ•˜๋ฃจ์— 20๋ฐ€๋ฆฌ๊ทธ๋žจ์”ฉ ์ฃผ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
08:56
20 milligrams a day of haloperidol.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ด๋ฏธ ์ •ํ•ด์ง„ ๊ฒฐ๋ก ์ด์—ˆ์ฃ ,
08:58
And it's a foregone conclusion if you give a drug at that high a dose,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋†’์€ 1ํšŒ ๋ณต์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์˜ ์•ฝ์„ ์ฃผ๋ฉด
09:01
it will have more side effects, and your new drug will look better.
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๋” ๋งŽ์€ ๋ถ€์ž‘์šฉ์ด ์žˆ์„๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ  ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์•ฝ์ด ๋” ์ข‹๊ฒŒ ๋ณด์ด๊ฒ ์ง€์š”
10๋…„์ „, ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กญ๊ฒŒ๋„ ์—ญ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์Šค์Šค๋กœ ๋ฐ˜๋ณตํ•˜์ฃ 
09:05
Ten years ago, history repeated itself,
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์ตœ์ดˆ์˜ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์„ธ๋Œ€์˜ ํ•œ์ •์‹ ๋ณ‘ ์•ฝ์ด์—ˆ๋˜, ๋ฆฌ์ŠคํŽ˜๋ฆฌ๋ˆ(risperidone) ์ด
09:07
when risperidone, the first of the new-generation antipsychotic drugs,
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๋ณต์ œ๊ถŒ์ด ๋ฐฉ๋ฉด๋˜์–ด์„œ, ๋ˆ„๊ตฌ๋ผ๋„ ๋ณต์ œํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
09:10
came off copyright, so anybody could make copies.
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09:12
Everybody wanted to show their drug was better than risperidone,
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๋ชจ๋“ ์ด๊ฐ€ ์ž๊ธฐ๋“ค์˜ ์•ฝ์ด ๋ฆฌ์ŠคํŽ˜๋ฆฌ๋ˆ(risperidone)๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋‚ซ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๊ธธ ๋ฐ”๋žฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐœ์˜ ์‹คํ—˜์ด ํ•˜๋ฃจ์— 8 ๋ฐ€๋ฆฌ๊ทธ๋žจ (milligrams)์„ ๋ฆฌ์ŠคํŽ˜๋ฆฌ๋ˆ(risperidone)์— ๋ฐ˜ํ•ด์„œ
09:15
so you see trials comparing new antipsychotic drugs
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ํ•ญ์ •์‹ ๋ณ‘ ์•ฝ์— ๋ฐ˜ํ•ด์„œ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
09:18
against risperidone at eight milligrams a day.
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๋‹ค์‹œ๋งํ•˜๋ฉด, ์ •์‹ ์ด์ƒ์˜ 1ํšŒ ๋ณต์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๊ณ , ๋ถˆ๋ฒ•์ ์ธ 1ํšŒ ๋ณต์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ์ง€๋งŒ,
09:20
Again, not an insane dose, not an illegal dose,
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์ •์ƒ์˜ ์•„์ฃผ ๋†’์€ ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ๋ฒ”์œ„์— ์žˆ์ฃ 
09:22
but very much at the high end of normal.
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๋ฐ˜๋“œ์‹œ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์•ฝ์ด ๋” ์ข‹๊ฒŒ ๋ณด์ด๋„๋ก ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
09:24
So you're bound to make your new drug look better.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ทธ๊ฑด ์‚ฐ์—…๊ธฐ๊ธˆ์˜ ์‹คํ—˜์ด ์ „์ฒด์ ์œผ๋กœ
09:27
And so it's no surprise that overall,
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09:29
industry-funded trials are four times more likely
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๋…๋ฆฝ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ง€์›๋ฐ›์€ ์‹คํ—˜๋ณด๋‹ค
๋„ค ๋ฐฐ๊ฐ€ ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋‚ณ์„ ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€
09:32
to give a positive result
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09:33
than independently sponsored trials.
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์ „ํ˜€ ๋†€๋ž„๋งŒํ•œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ด ์•„๋‹Œ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ 
09:36
But -- and it's a big but --
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ (but)--๋˜ ๊ทธ๊ฑด ์•„์ฃผ ํฐ ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ (but: ์ด ๋‹จ์–ด๋Š” ๊ถ๋‘ฅ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋‹จ์–ด, butt๊ณผ ๋ฐœ์Œ์ด ๊ฐ™์€ ๋™์Œ์ด์˜์–ด) ์ธ๋ฐ
09:39
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
ํŒ๋ช…๋œ ๋ฐ”๋กœ๋Š”,
09:42
it turns out,
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09:43
when you look at the methods used by industry-funded trials,
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์‚ฐ์—…๊ธฐ๊ธˆ์˜ ์‹คํ—˜์— ์ด์šฉ๋œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ๋ณด๋ฉด
๋…๋ฆฝ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ง€์›๋ฐ›์€ ์‹คํ—˜๋ณด๋‹ค
09:47
that they're actually better than independently sponsored trials.
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๋” ๋‚ซ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
09:50
And yet, they always manage to get the result that they want.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ์—๋„, ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ํ•ญ์ƒ ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์›ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์–ป๋„๋ก ๊ด€๋ฆฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
09:53
So how does this work?
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ž‘์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ ๋ญ˜๊นŒ์š”?
09:54
(Laughter)
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์ด ์ด์ƒํ•œ ํ˜„์ƒ์„ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•  ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ ๋ฌด์—‡์ผ๊นŒ์š”?
09:56
How can we explain this strange phenomenon?
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09:58
Well, it turns out that what happens
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์–ด๋–ค์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š”์ง€ ํŒ๋ช…์ด ๋œ๊ฒƒ์€
10:00
is the negative data goes missing in action;
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๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ํ–‰๋ฐฉ๋ถˆ๋ช…์ด ๋˜๋Š”๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
10:02
it's withheld from doctors and patients.
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ์˜์‚ฌ๋“ค๊ณผ ํ™˜์ž๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ์„œ ์–ต์ œ๋‹นํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
10:04
And this is the most important aspect of the whole story.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์ „์ฒด์ ์ธ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์š”์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
๊ทธ๊ฑด ์ฆ๊ฑฐ ํ”ผ๋ผ๋ฏธ๋“œ์˜ ๊ผญ๋Œ€๊ธฐ์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
10:07
It's at the top of the pyramid of evidence.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ง„์ •์œผ๋กœ ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์ธ์ง€ ์•„๋‹Œ์ง€ ์ธ์ง€ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
10:09
We need to have all of the data on a particular treatment
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ํŠน์ •ํ•œ ์น˜๋ฃŒ์—์„œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์ž…์ˆ˜ํ•ด์•ผ๋งŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
10:12
to know whether or not it really is effective.
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์•ฝ๊ฐ„์˜ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ํ–‰๋ฐฉ๋ถˆ๋ช…์ด ๋˜์—ˆ๋Š”์ง€ ์•„๋‹Œ์ง€๋ฅผ
10:14
There are two different ways you can spot whether some data has gone missing.
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์ ์ฐ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” 2 ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™์„ ์ด์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ณ , ๋˜๋Š” ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ง€์š”
10:18
You can use statistics or you can use stories.
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10:20
I prefer statistics, so that's what I'll do first.
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์ €๋Š” ๊ฐœ์ธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ™•๋ฅ ์„ ์„ ํ˜ธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ทธ๊ฑธ ๋จผ์ € ํ•˜๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
10:22
This is a funnel plot.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๊น”๋Œ€๊ธฐ ํ”Œ๋กฏ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถ€๋ฅด๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
10:24
A funnel plot is a very clever way of spotting
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์ด ๊น”๋Œ€๊ธฐ ํ”Œ๋กฏ์€ ๋งŒ์ผ ์ž‘์€ ๋ถ€์ •์  ์‹คํ—˜์ด ํ–‰๋ฐฉ๋ถˆ๋ช…์ด ๋œ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง„ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ
10:26
if small negative trials have disappeared, have gone missing in action.
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์ ์ฐ๋Š” ์•„์ฃผ ์˜๋ฆฌํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
10:29
This is a graph of all of the trials done on a particular treatment.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ํŠน์ •ํ•œ ์น˜๋ฃŒ์—์„œ ํ–‰ํ•ด์ง„
๋ชจ๋“  ์‹คํ—˜์˜ ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
10:33
As you go up towards the top of the graph,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„์˜ ์œ„์ชฝ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ฌ๋ผ๊ฐ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ
10:35
what you see is each dot is a trial.
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๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ฐ๊ฐ์˜ ์ ์ด ์‹คํ—˜์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
10:37
As you go up, those are bigger trials, so they've got less error;
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์œ„๋กœ ์˜ฌ๋ผ๊ฐ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ, ๊ทœ๋ชจ๊ฐ€ ๋” ํฐ ์‹คํ—˜์—๋Š”, ๋” ์ ์€ ์˜ค๋ฅ˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
10:40
they're less likely to be randomly false positives or negatives.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ๋ฌด์ž‘์œ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž˜๋ชป๋œ ๊ธ์ •์ ์ด ๋  ํ™•๋ฅ ๊ณผ, ๋ฌด์ž‘์œ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž˜๋ชป๋œ ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ด ๋  ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด ์ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:43
So they all cluster together.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๊ทธ๋ฃน ์ง€์–ด์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
10:45
The big trials are closer to the true answer.
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ํฐ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ์‹คํ—˜์€ ์ฐธ ๋Œ€๋‹ต์— ๊ฐ€๊น์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
10:47
Then as you go further down at the bottom,
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๊ทธ๋‹ค์Œ ๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ์˜ ์•„๋ž˜์ชฝ์œผ๋กœ ๋” ๋‚ด๋ ค๊ฐ€๋ฉด,
10:49
what you can see is, on this side, spurious false negatives,
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๋ณด์ด๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€ ์ด์ชฝ ์œ„์—, ์œ„์กฐ์˜ ํ‹€๋ฆฐ ๋ถ€์ •์  ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๊ณ 
10:52
and over on this side, spurious false positives.
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์ด์ชฝ ์œ„์—, ์œ„์กฐ์˜ ํ‹€๋ฆฐ ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
๋งŒ์ผ ์ถœํŒ์˜ ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์ด ์žˆ๋Š”๊ฒฝ์šฐ,
10:55
If there is publication bias,
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์ž‘์€ ๋ถ€์ •์  ์‹คํ—˜์ด ํ–‰๋ฐฉ๋ถˆ๋ช…์ด ๋œ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ
10:57
if small negative trials have gone missing in action,
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10:59
you can see it on one of these graphs.
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์ด ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์—์„œ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
11:01
So you see here that the small negative trials
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€
11:03
that should be on the bottom left have disappeared.
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์•„๋ž˜ ์™ผ์ชฝ์—์„œ ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง„ ์ž‘์€ ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ์‹คํ—˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ถœํŒํŽธ๊ฒฌ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ
11:06
This is a graph demonstrating the presence of publication bias
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์ถœํŒํŽธ๊ฒฌ์˜ ํ˜„์กด์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜๋Š” ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
11:09
in studies of publication bias.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์—๋Š” ๊ทธ๊ฑด ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ํ‰์ƒ ๋“ฃ๊ฒŒ ๋ 
11:11
And I think that's the funniest epidemiology joke you will ever hear.
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ์›ƒ๊ธฐ๋Š” ์—ญํ•™ ๋†๋‹ด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
11:14
(Laughter)
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ํ™•๋ฅ ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ฆ๋ช…ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
11:15
That's how you can prove it statistically.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋Š” ์–ด๋–จ๊นŒ์š”?
11:17
But what about stories?
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11:18
Well, they're heinous, they really are.
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๊ธ€์Ž„์š” ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ฐ€์ฆ์Šค๋Ÿฝ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ๊ทธ๊ฑด ์ •๋ง ๊ทธ๋ž˜์š”
11:20
This is a drug called reboxetine.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ ˆ๋ณต์„ธํ‹ด(reboxetine)์ด๋ผ ๋ถ€๋ฅด๋Š” ์•ฝ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
11:22
This is a drug which I, myself, have prescribed to patients.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ œ ์ž์‹ ์ด ํ™˜์ž๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์ฒ˜๋ฐฉํ•œ ์•ฝ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
์ €๋Š” ์•„์ฃผ ๊ดด์ƒํ•œ ์˜์‚ฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
11:25
And I'm a very nerdy doctor.
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11:26
I hope I go out of my way
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์ €๋Š” ์ œ ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ฑด ์‹œ๋„ํ•ด๋ณด๊ณ  ์ฝ์–ด์„œ ๋ชจ๋“  ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ฝ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ•˜์ง€์š”
11:27
to try and read and understand all the literature.
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์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์‹คํ—˜์„ ์ฝ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์‹คํ—˜๋“ค์€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๊ธ์ •์ ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
11:30
I read the trials on this.
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11:31
They were all positive, all well-conducted.
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์‹คํ—˜๋“ค์€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ž˜ ์‹คํ–‰๋˜์—ˆ์–ด์š”. ์ €๋Š” ํ—›์ ์„ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
11:33
I found no flaw.
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๋ถˆํ–‰ํ•˜๊ฒŒ๋„, ํŒ๋ช…๋œ๊ฒƒ์€,
11:35
Unfortunately, it turned out, that many of these trials were withheld.
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์ด ์‹คํ—˜์ค‘ ๋งŽ์€ ์ˆซ์ž๊ฐ€ ์–ต์ œ๋˜์—ˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
11:38
In fact, 76 percent of all of the trials that were done on this drug
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์‚ฌ์‹ค, ์ด ์•ฝ์œผ๋กœ ํ–‰ํ•ด์กŒ๋˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‹คํ—˜์˜
76ํผ์„ผํŠธ๊ฐ€
์˜์‚ฌ์™€ ํ™˜์ž๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ์„œ ์–ต์ œ๋˜์—ˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
11:43
were withheld from doctors and patients.
276
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์ž, ์ด์ œ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณผ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ,
11:45
Now if you think about it,
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11:46
if I tossed a coin a hundred times,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋™์ „์„ 100๋ฒˆ ๋˜์ ธ์„œ
11:48
and I'm allowed to withhold from you the answers half the times,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์—๊ฒŒ์„œ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜๋งŒํผ์˜ ๊ทธ ๋Œ€๋‹ต์„
์–ต์ œํ•˜๋„๋ก ํ—ˆ๋ฝ๋ฐ›์•˜๋‹ค๋ฉด
11:52
then I can convince you that I have a coin with two heads.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ์ €๋Š” ๋จธ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋‘๊ฐœ์žˆ๋Š” ๋™์ „์ด ์ œ๊ฒŒ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ 
์„ค๋“ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
11:56
If we remove half of the data,
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๋งŒ์ผ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์˜ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์„ ์ œ๊ฑฐํ•  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ,
11:58
we can never know what the true effect size of these medicines is.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์˜์•ฝ์˜ ์‹ค์ œ ํšจ๊ณผ์ •๋„๋ฅผ ์ ˆ๋Œ€๋กœ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์‚ฐ๋ฐœ์ ์ธ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
12:02
And this is not an isolated story.
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ํ•ญ์šฐ์šธ์ฆ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์‹คํ—˜ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ „๋ถ€์˜ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์ •๋„๋Š” ์–ต์ œ๋˜์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
12:04
Around half of all of the trial data on antidepressants has been withheld,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ทธ ์ด์ƒ์„ ๋„˜์–ด์„ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
12:08
but it goes way beyond that.
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12:09
The Nordic Cochrane Group were trying to get ahold of the data on that
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๋…ธ๋ฅดํ‹ฑ ์ฝ”ํฌ๋ ˆ์ธ ๊ทธ๋ฃน (Nordic Cochrane Group)์€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ
๋ชจ๋‘ ์ˆ˜์ง‘ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ž…์ˆ˜์— ๋…ธ๋ ฅํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
12:12
to bring it all together.
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์ฝ”ํฌ๋ ˆ์ธ ๊ทธ๋ฃน(Cochrane Group)์€ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ์ด๋ผ๋„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ง„ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ „๋ถ€์˜
12:14
The Cochrane Groups are an international nonprofit collaboration
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์กฐ์ง์ ์ธ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๋Š” ๊ตญ์ œ์  ๋น„์˜๋ฆฌ ํ˜‘๋™๋‹จ์ฒด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
12:17
that produce systematic reviews
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12:18
of all of the data that has ever been shown.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์‹คํ—˜ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์˜ ์ „๋ณด์— ์ ‘๊ทผํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
12:20
And they need to have access to all of the trial data.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ์„œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์–ต์ œํ•˜๊ณ 
12:23
But the companies withheld that data from them.
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12:25
So did the European Medicines Agency --
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์œ ๋Ÿฝ ์ œ์•ฝ ๋Œ€๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ๊ด€ (European Medicines Agency)๋„
3๋…„๋™์•ˆ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
12:28
for three years.
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12:29
This is a problem that is currently lacking a solution.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ํ˜„์žฌ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ์ฑ…์„ ๊ฒฐ์—ฌํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
12:32
And to show how big it goes, this is a drug called Tamiflu,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ์–ด๋Š์ •๋„๊ฐ€ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ€๋Š”์ง€ ๋ณด์—ฌ๋“œ๋ฆฌ์ž๋ฉด, ์ด๊ฒƒ์€
12:35
which governments around the world
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์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ์ •๋ถ€๋“ค์ด ๋ช‡์‹ญ์–ต์˜ ๋ˆ์„ ์ผ๋˜
12:37
have spent billions and billions of dollars on.
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์•„๋ฏธํ”Œ๋ฃจ (Tamiflu)๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š” ์•ฝ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ด ์•ฝ์ด ๋…๊ฐ ํ•ฉ๋ณ‘์ฆ์˜
12:40
And they spend that money on the promise that this is a drug
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๋น„์œจ์„ ์ค„์—ฌ์ค„๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์•ฝ์†์—์„œ
12:43
which will reduce the rate of complications with flu.
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๊ทธ ๋ˆ์„ ์”๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ช‡์‹œ๊ฐ„์œผ๋กœ ๋…๊ฐ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์„ ์ค„์ด๋Š”
12:46
We already have the data
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12:47
showing it reduces the duration of your flu by a few hours.
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๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋Š” ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์ด๋ฏธ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ €๋Š” ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ฐœ์˜์น˜ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ฐœ์˜์น˜ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
12:50
But I don't care about that, governments don't care.
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ๋…๊ฐ์„ ์•“์œผ์‹ ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์•„์ฃผ ์ฃ„์†กํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ๋”์ฐํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š”๊ฑธ ์•Œ์ง€์š”
12:52
I'm sorry if you have the flu, I know it's horrible,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์˜ ๋…๊ฐ ์ฆ์ƒ์˜ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์„
12:55
but we're not going to spend billions of dollars
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ํ•œ๋‚˜์ ˆ๋กœ ์ค„์ด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋…ธ๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์‹ญ์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ
12:57
trying to reduce the duration of your flu symptoms by half a day.
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์†Œ๋น„ํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์„๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
13:00
We prescribe these drugs.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ฃฝ์Œ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋Š” ํ๋ ด์˜
13:01
We stockpile them for emergencies
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ํ•ฉ๋ณ‘์ฆ์˜ ์ˆซ์ž๋ฅผ ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์ค„์ผ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์ดํ•ด์—์„œ
13:03
on the understanding they'll reduce the number of complications,
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์ด ์•ฝ๋“ค์„ ์ฒ˜๋ฐฉํ•˜๊ณ , ๋น„์ƒ์‹œ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋น„์ถ•ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
13:06
which means pneumonia and death.
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์ด ์ „์—ผ์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ์งˆ๋ณ‘์„, ์ดํƒˆ๋ฆฌ์•„์— ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ๋‘”, ์ฝ”ํฌ๋ ˆ์ธ ๊ทธ๋ฃน(Cochrane Group)์ด
13:08
The infectious diseases Cochrane Group, which are based in Italy,
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์ด ์•ฝ์ด ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์ธ์ง€ ์•„๋‹Œ์ง€์˜
13:11
has been trying to get the full data in a usable form
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์™„์ „ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ์ œ์•ฝํšŒ์‚ฌ์—์„œ ๋‚˜์˜จ
13:15
out of the drug companies,
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์ด์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ํ˜•ํƒœ์˜
13:16
so they can make a full decision
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13:18
about whether this drug is effective or not,
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์™„์ „ํ•œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์ž…์ˆ˜ํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ๋…ธ๋ ฅํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
13:20
and they've not been able to get that information.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ž…์ˆ˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์—†์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
13:23
This is undoubtedly the single biggest ethical problem
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์˜์‹ฌํ•  ๋ฐ” ์—†์ด
์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ์ œ์•ฝ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ๋‹น๋ฉดํ•œ
13:28
facing medicine today.
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ๋‹จ ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ๋„๋•์  ๋ฌธ์ œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์ •๋ณด๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€์žฌ๋œ ์ƒํƒœ์—์„œ๋Š”
13:31
We cannot make decisions in the absence of all of the information.
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์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
13:37
So it's a little bit difficult from there
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ๊ฒฐ๋ก ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฑธ๋กœ ๋Œ๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ์—๋Š”
13:40
to spin in some kind of positive conclusion.
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์•ฝ๊ฐ„ ํž˜์ด ๋“ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ์ €๋Š” ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•˜๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:
13:45
But I would say this:
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13:48
I think that sunlight
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์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์—๋Š” ํ–‡์‚ด์ด
13:51
is the best disinfectant.
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์‚ด๊ท ์ œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ชจ๋“ ์ผ๋“ค์ด ๋ช…๋ฐฑํ•œ ์‹œ์•ผ์—์„œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ ,
13:54
All of these things are happening in plain sight,
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13:56
and they're all protected by a force field of tediousness.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ์ „๋ถ€ ๋”ฐ๋ถ„ํ•จ์˜ ๋™๋ ฅ ๋ถ„์•ผ๋กœ
๋ชจ๋‘ ๋ณดํ˜ธ๋ฐ›์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
14:01
And I think, with all of the problems in science,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ €๋Š”, ๊ณผํ•™์—์„œ์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜,
์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋Š”
14:04
one of the best things that we can do
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14:05
is to lift up the lid, finger around at the mechanics
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๋šœ๊ป‘์„ ๋“ค์–ด์˜ฌ๋ ค
์—ญํ•™์˜ ์ฃผ๋ณ€์— ์†์„ ๋Œ€๊ณ  ๋‚ด๋ถ€๋ฅผ ์‘์‹œํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
14:08
and peer in.
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๋Œ€๋‹จํžˆ ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
14:10
Thank you very much.
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14:11
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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