When is a pandemic over?

Prevodilac: Milena Petrovic Lektor: Milenka Okuka

Consider this unfortunately familiar scenario.

Razmotrimo ovaj, nažalost, poznati scenario.

Several months ago a highly infectious, sometimes deadly respiratory virus

Pre nekoliko meseci, visoko zarazan, ponekad smrtonosni respiratorni virus

infected humans for the first time.

po prvi put je zarazio ljude.

It then proliferated faster than public health measures

Zatim se razmnožio brže nego što su mere javnog zdravlja

could contain it.

mogle da ga obuzdaju.

Now the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared a pandemic,

Sada je Svetska zdravstvena organizacija, SZO, proglasila pandemiju,

meaning that it’s spreading worldwide.

što znači da se širi po celom svetu.

The death toll is starting to rise and everyone is asking the same question:

Broj žrtava je u porastu i svi se pitaju isto:

when will the pandemic end?

kada će se pandemija završiti?

The WHO will likely declare the pandemic over

SZO će najverovatnije proglasiti kraj pandemije

once the infection is mostly contained

onda kada infekcija uglavnom bude pod kontrolom

and rates of transmission drop significantly throughout the world.

i kada se stopa prenošenja značajno smanji širom sveta.

But exactly when that happens depends on what global governments choose to do next.

Ali kada će se to desiti zavisi od toga šta će svetske vlade učiniti sledeće.

They have three main options:

Imaju tri glavna izbora:

Race through it, Delay and Vaccinate, or Coordinate and Crush.

Izlaganje virusu, odlaganje i vakcinacija ili koordinacija i suzbijanje virusa.

One is widely considered best, and it may not be the one you think.

Jedan od njih se smatra najboljim izborom, i to možda nije onaj na koji ste mislili.

In the first, governments and communities do nothing to halt the spread

U prvom, vlade i zajednice ne čine ništa kako bi sprečile širenje zaraze

and instead allow people to be exposed as quickly as possible.

i dozvoljavaju ljudima da se izlože virusu što je brže moguće.

Without time to study the virus,

Nemajući puno vremena da izuče virus,

doctors know little about how to save their patients,

lekari znaju malo o tome kako da spasu svoje pacijente,

and hospitals reach peak capacity almost immediately.

i bolnice veoma brzo postaju popunjene.

Somewhere in the range of millions to hundreds of millions of people die,

Između miliona ili stotinu miliona ljudi umire,

either from the virus or the collapse of health care systems.

što od virusa, što od kolapsa zdravstvenih sistema.

Soon the majority of people have been infected

Uskoro većina ljudi postaje zaražena

and either perished or survived by building up their immune responses.

i oni umru ili prežive gradeći svoj imuni odgovor.

Around this point herd immunity kicks in,

Otprilike u ovom trenutku nastupa kolektivni imunitet,

where the virus can no longer find new hosts.

tako da virus ne može pronaći nove domaćine.

So the pandemic fizzles out a short time after it began.

Stoga, pandemija iščezava ubrzo nakon što je počela.

But there’s another way to create herd immunity

Ali postoji i drugi način za građenje grupnog imuniteta

without such a high cost of life.

bez velikog gubitka života.

Let’s reset the clock to the moment the WHO declared the pandemic.

Vratimo se na trenutak kada je SZO proglasila pandemiju.

This time, governments and communities around the world

Ovog puta, države i zajednice širom sveta

slow the spread of the virus to give research facilities time

usporavaju širenje virusa kako bi istraživački centri imali vremena

to produce a vaccine.

da naprave vakcinu.

They buy this crucial time through tactics that may include widespread testing

Kupuju dragoceno vreme putem taktika koje uključuju opsežno testiranje

to identify carriers,

kako bi našli nosioce,

quarantining the infected and people they’ve interacted with,

obolele smestili u karantin, kao i ljude s kojima su bili u kontaktu,

and physical distancing.

i fizičko distanciranje.

Even with these measures in place, the virus slowly spreads,

Čak i sa ovim merama, virus se polako širi,

causing up to hundreds of thousands of deaths.

uzrokujući stotine hiljada smrtnih slučajeva.

Some cities get the outbreak under control and go back to business as usual,

Neki gradovi drže širenje zaraze pod kontrolom i vraćaju se u normalu,

only to have a resurgence

sve do ponovnog izbijanja,

and return to physical distancing when a new case passes through.

kada se vraćaju fizičkom distanciranju pri pojavi novog slučaja.

Within the next several years,

U narednih nekoliko godina,

one or possibly several vaccines become widely, and hopefully freely, available

jedna ili više vakcina će postati naširoko dostupne, a nadamo se i besplatne,

thanks to a worldwide effort.

zahvaljujući naporima uloženim širom sveta.

Once 40-90% of the population has received it—

Onda kada 40 do 90 odsto populacije bude primilo vakcinu,

the precise amount varying based on the virus—

tačan broj varira zavisno od virusa,

herd immunity kicks in, and the pandemic fizzles out.

kolektivni imunitet nastupa i pandemija iščezava.

Let’s rewind the clock one more time, to consider the final strategy:

Vratimo se još jednom na početak, i razmotrimo i poslednju strategiju:

Coordinate and Crush.

koordinacija i suzbijanje virusa.

The idea here is to simultaneously starve the virus, everywhere,

Ideja ovde je istovremeno iscrpljivanje virusa svuda u svetu,

through a combination of quarantine, social distancing, and restricting travel.

putem karantina, fizičkog distanciranja, i ograničavanja putovanja.

The critical factor is to synchronize responses.

Ključan faktor je usklađivanje odziva.

In a typical pandemic, when one country is peaking,

Tokom tipične pandemije, kada u jednoj zemlji imamo vrhunac,

another may be getting its first cases.

u drugoj se tek javljaju prvi slučajevi.

Instead of every leader responding to what’s happening in their jurisdiction,

Umesto da svaki vođa odgovara za ono što je pod njegovom nadležnošću,

here everyone must treat the world as the giant interconnected system it is.

ovde svako mora da se ophodi prema svetu, kao prema velikom povezanom sistemu.

If coordinated properly, this could end a pandemic in just a few months,

Ako se sve uskladi kako treba, može brzo da dođe do kraja pandemije

with low loss of life.

sa malim brojem izgubljenih života.

But unless the virus is completely eradicated— which is highly unlikely—

Ukoliko virus nije potpuno iskorenjen, što je malo verovatno,

there will be risks of it escalating to pandemic levels once again.

postojaće rizik od ponovnog izbijanja pandemije.

And factors like animals carrying and transmitting the virus

I faktori poput životinja koje nose i prenose virus

might undermine our best efforts altogether.

mogu da podriju naše najbolje napore.

So which strategy is best for this deadly, infectious respiratory virus?

Dakle, koja je strategija najbolja za ovaj smrtonosni, zarazni respiratorni virus?

Racing through it is a quick fix, but would be a global catastrophe,

Izlaganje virusu je brzo rešenje, ali bi to bila globalna katastrofa,

and may not work at all if people can be reinfected.

i možda uopšte neće delovati ukoliko ljudi mogu opet da se zaraze.

Crushing the virus through Coordination alone is also enticing for its speed,

Suzbijanje virusa samo putem koordinacije zvuči primamljivo zbog brzine,

but only reliable with true and nearly impossible global cooperation.

ali jedino je pouzdano sa istinskom i gotovo nemogućom svetskom saradnjom.

That’s why vaccination, assisted by as much global coordination as possible,

Zato se vakcinacija, uz pomoć što je više moguće globalne koordinacije,

is generally considered to be the winner;

uopšteno smatra pobednikom;

it’s the slow, steady, and proven option in the race.

to je spor, stabilan i dokazan izbor u ovoj trci.

Even if the pandemic officially ends before a vaccine is ready,

Čak i ako se pandemija zvanično završi pre nego što je vakcina spremna,

the virus may reappear seasonally, so vaccines will continue to protect people.

virus se može pojaviti sezonski, stoga će vakcine nastaviti da štite ljude.

And although it may take years to create,

I, iako mogu proći godine dok se vakcina ne napravi,

disruptions to most people’s lives won’t necessarily last the full duration.

narušavanje ljudskih života neće nužno trajati sve vreme.

Breakthroughs in treatment and prevention of symptoms

Otkrića u lečenju i prevenciji simptoma

can make viruses much less dangerous,

mogu da učine viruse manje opasnim,

and therefore require less extreme containment measures.

što će samim tim zahtevati blaže mere zaštite.

Take heart: the pandemic will end.

Budite uvereni: pandemija će se završiti.

Its legacy will be long-lasting, but not all bad;

Njeno nasleđe će biti dugotrajno, ali ne u potpunosti loše;

the breakthroughs, social services, and systems we develop

otkrića, socijalne službe i sistemi koje razvijamo

can be used to the betterment of everyone.

mogu poslužiti za dobrobit svih nas.

And if we take inspiration from the successes

I, ako budemo inspirisani našim uspesima

and lessons from the failures,

i učimo iz naših neuspeha,

we can keep the next potential pandemic so contained

moći ćemo da sledeću potencijalnu pandemiju držimo pod kontrolom

that our children’s children won’t even know its name.

tako da joj deca naše dece neće čak ni ime znati.