When is a pandemic over?

譯者: Yuwei Duan 審譯者: Helen Chang

Consider this unfortunately familiar scenario.

考慮一下這個不幸的熟悉場景。

Several months ago a highly infectious, sometimes deadly respiratory virus

幾個月前，一種高度傳染性， 有時甚至是致命性的呼吸道病毒

infected humans for the first time.

首次向人類襲來。

It then proliferated faster than public health measures

然後快速擴散開來，

could contain it.

速度之快讓公共衛生系統措手不及。

Now the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared a pandemic,

現在世界衛生組織（WHO） 宣布它為「大流行」，

meaning that it’s spreading worldwide.

意味著病毒正在全球範圍蔓延。

The death toll is starting to rise and everyone is asking the same question:

死亡率開始上升， 每個人都在問相同的問題：

when will the pandemic end?

大流行什麼時候才會結束？

The WHO will likely declare the pandemic over

世界衛生組織宣布 大流行結束的前提是：

once the infection is mostly contained

全球基本控制住了感染，

and rates of transmission drop significantly throughout the world.

且傳播速度大幅降低。

But exactly when that happens depends on what global governments choose to do next.

但這一天何時到來取決於 各國政府接下來的應對措施。

They have three main options:

他們主要有三個選擇：

Race through it, Delay and Vaccinate, or Coordinate and Crush.

任其發展、延緩疫情並研製疫苗 或者共同合作並消滅病毒。

One is widely considered best, and it may not be the one you think.

有一個被廣泛認為是最佳選擇， 但可能並不是你預想的那一個。

In the first, governments and communities do nothing to halt the spread

第一個策略，政府和社區 不採取任何措施阻止病毒傳播，

and instead allow people to be exposed as quickly as possible.

而是儘快讓所有人都暴露在病毒之中。

Without time to study the virus,

他們沒有時間深入研究病毒，

doctors know little about how to save their patients,

醫生對於如何醫治病人知之甚少。

and hospitals reach peak capacity almost immediately.

醫院迅速到達收治極限。

Somewhere in the range of millions to hundreds of millions of people die,

either from the virus or the collapse of health care systems.

可能是死於病毒感染， 也可能是因為醫療系統的崩潰。

Soon the majority of people have been infected

很快，大多數人被感染，

and either perished or survived by building up their immune responses.

有的人喪命，

有的人因建立免疫反應而活了下來。

Around this point herd immunity kicks in,

此時，人們獲得了群體免疫，

where the virus can no longer find new hosts.

因為病毒找不到新的宿主，

So the pandemic fizzles out a short time after it began.

大流行沒多久就會結束。

But there’s another way to create herd immunity

不過，還有個方法能實現群體免疫，

without such a high cost of life.

且不需要犧牲這麼多人。

Let’s reset the clock to the moment the WHO declared the pandemic.

讓我們將時鐘撥回 世界衛生組織宣布大流行的時刻。

This time, governments and communities around the world

這個時候，世界各地的政府和社區

slow the spread of the virus to give research facilities time

共同努力減緩病毒的傳播

為研究機構研製疫苗爭取時間。

to produce a vaccine.

They buy this crucial time through tactics that may include widespread testing

為了贏得這段關鍵的時間點， 所採取的措施包括：

大範圍檢測以確認病毒攜帶者、

to identify carriers,

quarantining the infected and people they’ve interacted with,

隔離感染者和接觸者，

and physical distancing.

以及社交距離。

Even with these measures in place, the virus slowly spreads,

只要做出了這些正確的反應，

病毒就會減緩傳播速度，

causing up to hundreds of thousands of deaths.

最多導致數百或數千的死亡數。

Some cities get the outbreak under control and go back to business as usual,

有些城市控制住疫情並開始復工，

only to have a resurgence

只有在出現新的病例時 才會恢復社交距離。

and return to physical distancing when a new case passes through.

Within the next several years,

在接下來的幾年內，

one or possibly several vaccines become widely, and hopefully freely, available

一個或多個疫苗可能會廣泛 甚至免費投入使用。

thanks to a worldwide effort.

一切多虧了全球各國的努力，

Once 40-90% of the population has received it—

一旦 40% 到 90% 的人接種了疫苗——

the precise amount varying based on the virus—

herd immunity kicks in, and the pandemic fizzles out.

人們獲得群體免疫， 大流行漸漸結束。

Let’s rewind the clock one more time, to consider the final strategy:

讓我們再次把時間往回撥， 看看最後一個策略：

Coordinate and Crush.

共同合作，消滅病毒。

The idea here is to simultaneously starve the virus, everywhere,

通過隔離、社交距離和限制出行 相結合的方法。

through a combination of quarantine, social distancing, and restricting travel.

在全球各地同時「餓死」病毒。

The critical factor is to synchronize responses.

策略的關鍵在於世界各地的同步響應。

In a typical pandemic, when one country is peaking,

在典型的病毒大流行時， 當一個國家的疫情到達峰值時，

another may be getting its first cases.

其它國家可能剛開始第一個病例。

Instead of every leader responding to what’s happening in their jurisdiction,

不能讓各國的領導 僅僅處理本國範圍內的疫情，

here everyone must treat the world as the giant interconnected system it is.

而應該將世界視作 一個相互連結的整體。

If coordinated properly, this could end a pandemic in just a few months,

如果各國配合地好， 大流行就能在幾個月內結束，

with low loss of life.

死亡率也大大降低。

But unless the virus is completely eradicated— which is highly unlikely—

但是除非病毒完全根除—— 這個情況出現機率很低

there will be risks of it escalating to pandemic levels once again.

否則大流行出現反彈的可能性很高。

And factors like animals carrying and transmitting the virus

動物攜帶和傳播病毒的因素

might undermine our best efforts altogether.

可能會讓我們共同的努力前功盡棄。

So which strategy is best for this deadly, infectious respiratory virus?

所以哪個策略對於這個致命的 傳染性呼吸道病毒最合適呢？

Racing through it is a quick fix, but would be a global catastrophe,

任其發展是可以快速結束疫情， 但是會導致全球性的災難。

and may not work at all if people can be reinfected.

而且如果可能人類遭受二次感染， 這個方法完全無效。

Crushing the virus through Coordination alone is also enticing for its speed,

but only reliable with true and nearly impossible global cooperation.

而且只有在真正的、近乎不可能的 全球合作情況下才有可能成功。

That’s why vaccination, assisted by as much global coordination as possible,

這就是為什麼盡可能全球協同發展疫苗

is generally considered to be the winner;

通常被認為贏面最大。

it’s the slow, steady, and proven option in the race.

這是與病毒抗爭中緩慢、堅實 並且被證實的選項。

Even if the pandemic officially ends before a vaccine is ready,

即使疫情在疫苗完成前結束，

the virus may reappear seasonally, so vaccines will continue to protect people.

And although it may take years to create,

即使需要耗費數年才能完成，

disruptions to most people’s lives won’t necessarily last the full duration.

但是疫情對於人類生活的破壞影響 並不會一直存在。

Breakthroughs in treatment and prevention of symptoms

治療方面的突破進展以及症狀的預防

can make viruses much less dangerous,

可以大幅降低病毒的危險性，

and therefore require less extreme containment measures.

因此無需採取那麼極端的手段。

Take heart: the pandemic will end.

請牢記於心：疫情大流行終將結束。

Its legacy will be long-lasting, but not all bad;

雖然它的影響一直存在， 但不全都是壞事；

the breakthroughs, social services, and systems we develop

突破性進展、社會服務 和我們努力改善的系統

can be used to the betterment of everyone.

可以造福於所有人。

And if we take inspiration from the successes

如果我們從成功 和失敗的教訓中獲得啟發，

and lessons from the failures,

we can keep the next potential pandemic so contained

對於下一個潛在的疫情，

我們能讓子孫的子孫 在知道病毒的名字之前就控制住。

that our children’s children won’t even know its name.