When is a pandemic over?

翻译人员: Richel Liu 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

Consider this unfortunately familiar scenario.

考虑一下这个对所有人来说 都很不幸却又熟悉的情景。

Several months ago a highly infectious, sometimes deadly respiratory virus

几个月前，一种传染性极强， 且有可能致命的呼吸道病毒

infected humans for the first time.

首次席卷了人类社会。

It then proliferated faster than public health measures

其传播速度之快， 让各个公共健康防疫系统

could contain it.

措手不及。

Now the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared a pandemic,

现在，世界卫生组织（WHO） 宣布疫情升级至 “大流行”，

meaning that it’s spreading worldwide.

意味着病毒已在世界各地蔓延。

The death toll is starting to rise and everyone is asking the same question:

死亡人数开始上升的同时， 每个人都在问同样的问题：

大流行什么时候结束？

when will the pandemic end?

The WHO will likely declare the pandemic over

世界卫生组织 宣布大流行结束的前提是，

once the infection is mostly contained

疫情得到一定的控制，

and rates of transmission drop significantly throughout the world.

并且在全世界范围内 传播速度出现大幅下降。

But exactly when that happens depends on what global governments choose to do next.

但是准确的结束时间取决于 全球政府下一步的应对策略。

They have three main options:

他们主要有三种选择：

Race through it, Delay and Vaccinate, or Coordinate and Crush.

任其发展、延缓疫情并研制疫苗， 或者全球协作以消灭病毒。

One is widely considered best, and it may not be the one you think.

其中一种被公认为最佳手段， 而它很可能出乎你的意料。

In the first, governments and communities do nothing to halt the spread

第一个策略，政府和社区 不采取任何应对扩散的措施，

and instead allow people to be exposed as quickly as possible.

而是尽快让所有人都暴露于病毒之中。

Without time to study the virus,

但由于来不及对病毒进行深入的研究，

doctors know little about how to save their patients,

医生对如何救治患者都感到束手无策，

and hospitals reach peak capacity almost immediately.

医院的患者收治量会迅速饱和。

Somewhere in the range of millions to hundreds of millions of people die,

接着会有数百万， 甚至数以亿计的人

either from the virus or the collapse of health care systems.

死于病毒感染， 或者医疗系统过载导致的崩溃。

Soon the majority of people have been infected

很快，大多数人都被病毒感染，

and either perished or survived by building up their immune responses.

有的没能挺过去， 有的则存活下来且获得了病毒免疫。

Around this point herd immunity kicks in,

这时候，群体免疫开始产生，

where the virus can no longer find new hosts.

因为病毒无法再找到新的宿主。

So the pandemic fizzles out a short time after it began.

因此大流行在爆发后的 短时间内会逐渐得到控制。

But there’s another way to create herd immunity

不过，还有另一种 实现群体免疫的途径，

without such a high cost of life.

不需要牺牲如此多的生命。

Let’s reset the clock to the moment the WHO declared the pandemic.

让我们把时间倒回世界卫生组织 宣布疫情大流行的那一刻。

This time, governments and communities around the world

这次，全世界的政府和社区

slow the spread of the virus to give research facilities time

一同采取手段 延缓病毒的传播速度，

为研究机构研发疫苗争取时间。

to produce a vaccine.

他们为赢得这段关键的时间 所采取的策略包括：

They buy this crucial time through tactics that may include widespread testing

扩大疫苗检测范围 来识别病毒携带者，

to identify carriers,

quarantining the infected and people they’ve interacted with,

隔离确诊患者和近距离接触者，

and physical distancing.

以及保持人与人的距离。

即使采取了这些防疫措施 来延缓病毒的传播，

Even with these measures in place, the virus slowly spreads,

causing up to hundreds of thousands of deaths.

仍会有数十万人死于病毒。

Some cities get the outbreak under control and go back to business as usual,

有些城市控制了疫情， 而后开始复工复产，

only to have a resurgence

城市逐步复苏，

and return to physical distancing when a new case passes through.

但是一旦新病例出现， 又要再次回到隔离的状态。

Within the next several years,

在未来的几年内，

one or possibly several vaccines become widely, and hopefully freely, available

通过全世界的共同努力， 一种或几种疫苗将得到广泛使用，

并有望让人们进行免费接种。

thanks to a worldwide effort.

Once 40-90% of the population has received it—

一旦 40-90% 的人口接种了疫苗——

the precise amount varying based on the virus—

具体比例还要视疫情而定——

herd immunity kicks in, and the pandemic fizzles out.

群体免疫就会出现， 疫情大流行也会逐渐消失。

Let’s rewind the clock one more time, to consider the final strategy:

我们让时间再次倒流， 考虑一下最后一种应对策略：

Coordinate and Crush.

全球协作，消灭病毒。

The idea here is to simultaneously starve the virus, everywhere,

该想法的核心是同时实施隔离、 保持社交距离以及限制出行，

through a combination of quarantine, social distancing, and restricting travel.

在全球各地断绝病毒传播的路径。

The critical factor is to synchronize responses.

而实现该目标的关键 在于全球的同步响应。

在典型的疫情大流行中， 当一个国家成为疫情震中时，

In a typical pandemic, when one country is peaking,

其他国家很可能就会 逐渐出现感染病例。

another may be getting its first cases.

比起各国领袖各自应对 本国境内发生的疫情，

Instead of every leader responding to what’s happening in their jurisdiction,

here everyone must treat the world as the giant interconnected system it is.

更应该将全球看作 一个互相联系的整体。

只要采取适当的协作措施， 大流行就会在数个月内结束，

If coordinated properly, this could end a pandemic in just a few months,

with low loss of life.

因疫情死亡的人数也会大大减少。

But unless the virus is completely eradicated— which is highly unlikely—

但是除非病毒被彻底根除 ——这一情况发生的可能性不大——

there will be risks of it escalating to pandemic levels once again.

否则疫情大流行很有可能卷土重来。

And factors like animals carrying and transmitting the virus

同时，动物携带和传播病毒等因素

might undermine our best efforts altogether.

也可能会破坏 我们在抗疫方面做出的努力。

So which strategy is best for this deadly, infectious respiratory virus?

那么，面对致命的呼吸道传染病， 哪一种应对策略才是最佳选择？

Racing through it is a quick fix, but would be a global catastrophe,

任其发展或许见效快， 但会造成全球性的灾难，

and may not work at all if people can be reinfected.

而且如果人们有可能被二次感染， 这种方法就是完全无效的。

Crushing the virus through Coordination alone is also enticing for its speed,

全球合作抗击疫情听起来十分高效，

but only reliable with true and nearly impossible global cooperation.

但只有在彻底但不太可能 实现的合作中才有机会成功。

That’s why vaccination, assisted by as much global coordination as possible,

所以，尽可能联合全球研发疫苗

普遍被认为是最佳的选择；

is generally considered to be the winner;

it’s the slow, steady, and proven option in the race.

这是在与疫情赛跑中的 一个缓慢、稳定且被证实有效的做法。

Even if the pandemic officially ends before a vaccine is ready,

即使大流行在疫苗面世之前已结束，

the virus may reappear seasonally, so vaccines will continue to protect people.

病毒仍然有可能会季节性出现， 所以疫苗会继续保护人们。

And although it may take years to create,

即使疫苗研发可能要耗费数年，

disruptions to most people’s lives won’t necessarily last the full duration.

但疫情对大多数人的生活 影响不会一直持续。

Breakthroughs in treatment and prevention of symptoms

治疗方法上的突破性进展 和对相关症状的预防

can make viruses much less dangerous,

能够降低病毒的危害，

and therefore require less extreme containment measures.

因而可以进一步下调 防疫措施的应对级别。

Take heart: the pandemic will end.

要有信心：疫情大流行终将结束。

Its legacy will be long-lasting, but not all bad;

疫情带来的影响会持续， 但并不全是负面的；

the breakthroughs, social services, and systems we develop

在此过程中我们实现的 突破性进展、社会服务和体制的改善

都会成为大家的福祉。

can be used to the betterment of everyone.

And if we take inspiration from the successes

如果我们能从成功中获得启示，

and lessons from the failures,

并从失败中吸取教训，

we can keep the next potential pandemic so contained

就可以完全控制好 下一次潜在的疫情大流行，

that our children’s children won’t even know its name.

甚至有一天，这个概念会 从我们子孙后代的生活中彻底消失。