Gene editing can now change an entire species -- forever | Jennifer Kahn

500,429 views ・ 2016-06-02

TED


Tafadhali bofya mara mbili manukuu ya Kiingereza hapa chini ili kucheza video.

Translator: Leah Ligate Reviewer: Joachim Mangilima
00:12
So this is a talk about gene drives,
0
12844
2462
Haya ni mazungumzo ya ubadilishaji jeni,
00:15
but I'm going to start by telling you a brief story.
1
15330
2553
ila nitaanza kwa kuwaelezea hadithi fupi
00:18
20 years ago, a biologist named Anthony James
2
18621
3223
miaka 20 iliyopita, mwanabiolojia aliyeitwa Anthony James
00:21
got obsessed with the idea of making mosquitos
3
21868
2319
alijawa na wazo la kutengeneza mbu
00:24
that didn't transmit malaria.
4
24211
2579
ambao hawaambukizi malaria.
00:27
It was a great idea, and pretty much a complete failure.
5
27683
4056
lilikuwa wazo zuri, na lilishindikana kabisa.
00:32
For one thing, it turned out to be really hard
6
32596
2660
Kwani, ilikuja kuwa vigumu sana
00:35
to make a malaria-resistant mosquito.
7
35280
2007
kutengeneza mbu asiyestahimili malaria.
00:38
James managed it, finally, just a few years ago,
8
38286
3627
James hatimaye aliweza, miaka michache iliyopita,
00:41
by adding some genes that make it impossible
9
41937
2071
kwa kuongeza jeni zinazofanya isiwezekane
00:44
for the malaria parasite to survive inside the mosquito.
10
44032
2714
kwa vimelea vya malaria kushindwa kuishi ndani ya mbu.
00:47
But that just created another problem.
11
47551
1822
lakini hiyo ilileta tatizo lingine.
00:50
Now that you've got a malaria-resistant mosquito,
12
50043
2842
Sasa umeshapata mbu asiyestahimili malaria,
00:52
how do you get it to replace all the malaria-carrying mosquitos?
13
52909
3586
utamfanyaje aweze kubadilisha mbu wote wanaobeba malaria?
00:58
There are a couple options,
14
58107
1473
Kuna chaguzi kadhaa,
00:59
but plan A was basically to breed up
15
59604
2023
lakini mpango A ulikuwa wa uzalishaji
01:01
a bunch of the new genetically-engineered mosquitos
16
61651
3087
kiasi cha mbu wapya waliotengenezwa kijenetiki
01:04
release them into the wild
17
64762
1326
waachilie mwituni
01:06
and hope that they pass on their genes.
18
66112
1967
na utegemee kwamba wataeneza jeni zao.
01:08
The problem was that you'd have to release
19
68673
2114
Tatizo lilikuwa kwamba ulitakiwa uachilie
01:10
literally 10 times the number of native mosquitos to work.
20
70811
4300
kiasi cha mara 10 ya namba ya mbu wenyeji kufanyakazi
01:15
So in a village with 10,000 mosquitos,
21
75135
2087
Hivyo katika kijiji chenye mbu 10,000.
01:17
you release an extra 100,000.
22
77246
2079
unaachilia 100,000 wa ziada.
01:20
As you might guess,
23
80229
1150
Kama unavyoweza kuhisi,
01:21
this was not a very popular strategy with the villagers.
24
81403
2754
mkakati huu haukukubalika kwa wanakijiji.
01:24
(Laughter)
25
84181
1150
(Kicheko)
01:26
Then, last January, Anthony James got an email
26
86963
3704
Kisha, Januari iliyopita, Anthony James akapata barua pepe
01:30
from a biologist named Ethan Bier.
27
90691
1951
kutoka kwa mbiolojia aitwaye Ethan Bier.
01:33
Bier said that he and his grad student Valentino Gantz
28
93400
2859
Bier akasema kwamba yeye na mwanafunzi wake Valentino Gantz
01:36
had stumbled on a tool that could not only guarantee
29
96283
2944
walikutana na kifaa ambacho kiweza sio tu kuhakikisha
01:39
that a particular genetic trait would be inherited,
30
99251
2674
kwamba kibainisho cha jenetiki fulani kitarithiwa
01:41
but that it would spread incredibly quickly.
31
101949
2079
lakini hiyo itaeneza kwa haraka mno.
01:44
If they were right, it would basically solve the problem
32
104734
2666
kama wangekuwa sahihi, ingeweza kutatua tatizo
01:47
that he and James had been working on for 20 years.
33
107424
2381
yeye na James walilolifanyia kazi kwa miaka 20.
01:50
As a test, they engineered two mosquitos to carry the anti-malaria gene
34
110450
4658
kama majaribio, walitengeneza mbu wawili kubeba jeni isiyo na malaria
01:55
and also this new tool, a gene drive,
35
115132
2159
na pia kifaa kipya cha ubadilishaji jeni,
01:57
which I'll explain in a minute.
36
117315
1491
ambayo nitaielezea hivi punde.
01:59
Finally, they set it up so that any mosquitos
37
119506
2333
wakakiandaa ili mbu yeyote
02:01
that had inherited the anti-malaria gene
38
121863
1938
ambaye alirithi jeni isiyo na malaria
02:03
wouldn't have the usual white eyes, but would instead have red eyes.
39
123825
3999
asiwe na macho meupe, awe na macho mekundu.
02:08
That was pretty much just for convenience
40
128682
2050
Hiyo ilikuwa tu kwa ajili ya urahisi
02:10
so they could tell just at a glance which was which.
41
130756
2537
ili waweze kujua kwa kuangalia yupi ni yupi.
02:14
So they took their two anti-malarial, red-eyed mosquitos
42
134192
2757
Hivyo walichukua mbu 2 wasio na malaria wenye macho mekundu
02:16
and put them in a box with 30 ordinary white-eyed ones,
43
136973
2659
na kuwaweka ndani ya boksi na mbu 30 wenye macho meupe,
02:19
and let them breed.
44
139656
1174
na kuwaacha wazaliane.
02:21
In two generations, those had produced 3,800 grandchildren.
45
141383
3857
Ndani ya vizazi viwili, hao walizalisha wajukuu 3,800.
02:26
That is not the surprising part.
46
146217
1793
Hiyo sio sehemu ya kushangaza.
02:28
This is the surprising part:
47
148716
1922
Hii ndio sehemu ya kushangaza:
02:30
given that you started with just two red-eyed mosquitos
48
150662
2907
kutokana na kwamba ulianza na mbu 2 tu wenye macho mekundu
02:33
and 30 white-eyed ones,
49
153593
1334
na 30 wenye macho meupe,
02:34
you expect mostly white-eyed descendants.
50
154951
2761
unategemea wenye macho meupe kuzaana zaidi
02:38
Instead, when James opened the box,
51
158514
3024
Badala yake, wakati James akifungua boksi,
02:41
all 3,800 mosquitos had red eyes.
52
161562
3341
mbu wote 3,800 walikuwa na macho mekundu.
02:45
When I asked Ethan Bier about this moment,
53
165315
2040
Nilipo muuliza Ethan Bier kuhusu hili,
02:47
he became so excited that he was literally shouting into the phone.
54
167379
3515
alipatwa msisimko mkubwa sana kiasi kwamba alipiga makelele kwenye simu.
02:51
That's because getting only red-eyed mosquitos
55
171886
2163
Ni kwasababu kupata mbu wenye macho mekundu tu
02:54
violates a rule that is the absolute cornerstone of biology,
56
174073
2948
inakiuka kanuni ambayo ni msingi thabiti wa biolojia,
02:57
Mendelian genetics.
57
177045
1242
Jenetiki za Mendelia.
02:58
I'll keep this quick,
58
178912
1169
Nitaieleza hii haraka,
03:00
but Mendelian genetics says when a male and a female mate,
59
180105
2764
jenetiki za Mendelia zadai mwanamke na mwanaume wakipandana
03:02
their baby inherits half of its DNA from each parent.
60
182893
2642
mtoto wao hurithi nusu ya DNA kutoka kwa kila mzazi.
03:05
So if our original mosquito was aa and our new mosquito is aB,
61
185559
3595
ikiwa mbu wetu asilia alikuwa aa na mbu wetu mpya ni aB,
03:09
where B is the anti-malarial gene,
62
189178
1802
na B ni jeni isiyostahimili malaria,
03:11
the babies should come out in four permutations:
63
191004
2387
watoto wanatakiwa watoke katika hitari nne:
03:13
aa, aB, aa, Ba.
64
193415
2573
aa, aB, aa, Ba.
03:16
Instead, with the new gene drive,
65
196884
2289
Badala yake katika ubadilishaji jeni,
03:19
they all came out aB.
66
199197
1512
wote walitokea aB.
03:21
Biologically, that shouldn't even be possible.
67
201900
2552
Kibiolojia, hiyo haitakiwi hata kuwezekana.
03:24
So what happened?
68
204476
1304
Sasa nini kilichotokea?
03:26
The first thing that happened
69
206709
1444
Kitu cha kwanza kilichotokea
03:28
was the arrival of a gene-editing tool known as CRISPR in 2012.
70
208177
3270
ni kuwasili kifaa cha kuhakiki jeni kilichoitwa CRISPR mwaka 2012.
03:32
Many of you have probably heard about CRISPR,
71
212701
2110
wengi wenu pengine mmesikia kuhusu CRISPR,
03:34
so I'll just say briefly that CRISPR is a tool that allows researchers
72
214835
3301
hivyo kwa kifupi hiyo CRISPR ni kifaa kinachoruhusu watafiti
03:38
to edit genes very precisely, easily and quickly.
73
218160
2579
kuhakiki jeni kwa uhakika, kirahisi na haraka.
03:41
It does this by harnessing a mechanism that already existed in bacteria.
74
221533
3729
Inafanya hivi kwa kuunganisha utaratibu ambao ulikuwepo ndani ya bakteria.
03:45
Basically, there's a protein that acts like a scissors
75
225286
2626
Kimsingi,kuna protini ambayo hutumika kama mkasi
03:47
and cuts the DNA,
76
227936
1234
na kukata DNA,
03:49
and there's an RNA molecule that directs the scissors
77
229194
2483
na kuna molekuli ya RNA ambayo huelekeza mkasi
03:51
to any point on the genome you want.
78
231701
1718
upande wowote kwenye jenome.
03:53
The result is basically a word processor for genes.
79
233443
2690
Matokeo kimsingi ni uchakataji neno kwa ajili ya jeni.
03:56
You can take an entire gene out, put one in,
80
236157
2626
Unaweza kutoa jeni yote nje, na kuweka nyingine ndani,
03:58
or even edit just a single letter within a gene.
81
238807
2445
au hata kuhakiki herufi moja ndani ya jeni.
04:01
And you can do it in nearly any species.
82
241646
1953
unaweza kufanya hivyo kwa spishi yoyote.
04:05
OK, remember how I said that gene drives originally had two problems?
83
245328
3714
OK, kumbuka nilivyosema ubadilishaji jeni mwanzo ulikuwa na matatizo mawili?
04:09
The first was that it was hard to engineer a mosquito
84
249835
3120
La kwanza ilikuwa ni vigumu kutengeneza mbu
04:12
to be malaria-resistant.
85
252979
1387
aweze kutostahimili malaria.
04:14
That's basically gone now, thanks to CRISPR.
86
254390
2127
Hiyo imeondoka sasa, shukrani kwa CRISPR.
04:17
But the other problem was logistical.
87
257117
1762
Ila tatizo lingine ni la kiutaratibu.
04:19
How do you get your trait to spread?
88
259307
1802
Unawezaje kufanya kibainisho kienee?
04:22
This is where it gets clever.
89
262196
1476
Hapa ndipo panpoleta usumbufu.
04:24
A couple years ago, a biologist at Harvard named Kevin Esvelt
90
264943
3602
Miaka michache iliyopita, mwanabiolojia wa Harvard Kevin Esvelt
04:28
wondered what would happen
91
268569
1350
alifikiria itatokea nini
04:29
if you made it so that CRISPR inserted not only your new gene
92
269943
3627
Ikiwa utaifanya ili kwamba CRISPR iingizwe sio tu kwenye jeni mpya
04:33
but also the machinery that does the cutting and pasting.
93
273594
2841
ila pia kwenye mashine ambayo hukata na kubandika.
04:37
In other words, what if CRISPR also copied and pasted itself.
94
277233
3840
Kwa maneno mengine itakuwaje CRISPR ikijinakili na kujibandika yenyewe.
04:42
You'd end up with a perpetual motion machine for gene editing.
95
282145
3131
Utaishia kuwa na mashine inayozunguka kuhakiki jeni.
04:46
And that's exactly what happened.
96
286458
1734
Na hicho ndicho kilichotokea
04:49
This CRISPR gene drive that Esvelt created
97
289037
2878
Hii CRISPR ya ubadilishaji jeni iliyoundwa na Esvelt
04:51
not only guarantees that a trait will get passed on,
98
291939
3643
sio tu inakuhakikishia kwamba kibainisho kitarithishwa,
04:55
but if it's used in the germline cells,
99
295606
2438
ikitumika kwenye seli za vijidudu vinavyobadilika,
04:58
it will automatically copy and paste your new gene
100
298068
2576
itanakili na kubandika moja kwa moja jeni yako mpya
05:00
into both chromosomes of every single individual.
101
300668
2646
kuwa kromosomu zote za kila kiumbe pekee.
05:03
It's like a global search and replace,
102
303743
2397
Ni kama utafutaji duniani na ubadilishaji,
05:06
or in science terms, it makes a heterozygous trait homozygous.
103
306164
3221
au kisayansi, hufanya kibainisho heterezaigosi kuwa homozaigosi.
05:11
So, what does this mean?
104
311045
2611
Hivyo, hii inamaanisha nini?
05:13
For one thing, it means we have a very powerful,
105
313680
2724
kwa namna moja, inamaanisha tuna chombo chenye nguvu sana,
05:16
but also somewhat alarming new tool.
106
316428
2657
lakini pia chombo kipya chakutia hofu.
05:20
Up until now, the fact that gene drives didn't work very well
107
320576
2889
Hadi sasa, kwakuwa ubadilishaji jeni haukufanya kazi vizuri
05:23
was actually kind of a relief.
108
323489
1483
ilikuwa na uahueni kidogo.
05:25
Normally when we mess around with an organism's genes,
109
325425
2682
Kawaida tunapovuruga jeni za viumbe,
05:28
we make that thing less evolutionarily fit.
110
328131
2349
tunafanya kile kitu kisifae kinadharia ya mageuko
05:30
So biologists can make all the mutant fruit flies they want
111
330504
2833
wanabiolojia wanaweza kutengeneza nzi wa matunda wanaotaka
05:33
without worrying about it.
112
333361
1253
bila kuhofia lolote
05:34
If some escape, natural selection just takes care of them.
113
334638
3007
kama baadhi watatoroka, uchaguzi asilia utawashughulikia.
05:38
What's remarkable and powerful and frightening about gene drives
114
338750
3223
Kinachosifika na chenye nguvu na kutisha kuhusu ubadilishaji jeni
05:41
is that that will no longer be true.
115
341997
1760
ni kwamba haitakuwa tena kweli.
05:45
Assuming that your trait does not have a big evolutionary handicap,
116
345092
3564
Chukulia kibainisho chako hakina ulemavu mkubwa wa nadharia ya mageuko,
05:48
like a mosquito that can't fly,
117
348680
2079
kama vile mbu ambao hawawezi kuruka
05:50
the CRISPR-based gene drive will spread the change relentlessly
118
350783
3453
CRISPR-yenye ubadilishaji jeni itaeneza mabadiliko kwa kasi kubwa mno
05:54
until it is in every single individual in the population.
119
354260
3006
hadi itakapokuwa ndani ya kila kitu katika kundi tafiti.
05:59
Now, it isn't easy to make a gene drive that works that well,
120
359101
2889
Si rahisi kuunda ubadilishaji jeni ufanye kazi vizuri hivyo,
06:02
but James and Esvelt think that we can.
121
362014
2174
lakini James na Esvelt wanadhani tunaweza.
06:05
The good news is that this opens the door to some remarkable things.
122
365339
3824
Habari njema ni kuwa hii inafungua mlango kwa mambo yasiyo ya kawaida.
06:09
If you put an anti-malarial gene drive
123
369187
1904
Ukitia ubadilishaji jeni usio na malaria
06:11
in just 1 percent of Anopheles mosquitoes,
124
371115
2200
katika asilimia 1 ya mbu wa Anofelesi,
06:13
the species that transmits malaria,
125
373339
1752
spishi inayoambukiza malaria,
06:15
researchers estimate that it would spread to the entire population in a year.
126
375488
4119
watafiti wanakadiria kwamba utaenea kwa mbu wote kwa muda wa mwaka mmoja.
06:20
So in a year, you could virtually eliminate malaria.
127
380178
2869
Hivyo kwa mwaka, unaweza kukaribia kuitokomeza malaria.
06:23
In practice, we're still a few years out from being able to do that,
128
383455
3872
Kiutendaji tupo bado miaka michache kuweza kufanikisha hilo,
06:27
but still, a 1,000 children a day die of malaria.
129
387351
2718
lakini bado watoto 1,000 hufa kwa malaria kwa siku.
06:30
In a year, that number could be almost zero.
130
390093
2190
Kwa mwaka, namba hiyo yaweza kukaribia sifuri.
06:32
The same goes for dengue fever, chikungunya, yellow fever.
131
392966
2896
hivyo pia kwa homa ya dengue, chikungunya na homa ya manjano.
06:37
And it gets better.
132
397211
1405
Na inazidi kuwa bora.
06:39
Say you want to get rid of an invasive species,
133
399215
2476
Ikiwa unataka kuondoa spishi zinazoenea kwa kasi,
06:41
like get Asian carp out of the Great Lakes.
134
401715
2123
kama Kamongo wa Asia kwenye Maziwa Makuu.
06:44
All you have to do is release a gene drive
135
404434
2024
Unatakiwa kuachilia ubadilishaji jeni
06:46
that makes the fish produce only male offspring.
136
406482
2317
ambao utafanya samaki wazaliane madume tu.
06:49
In a few generations, there'll be no females left, no more carp.
137
409386
4198
kwa vizazi vijavyo hakutakuwa na majike na kamongo wataisha.
06:53
In theory, this means we could restore hundreds of native species
138
413608
3079
kinadharia, inamaanisha tunaweza rudisha mamia ya spishi asilia
06:56
that have been pushed to the brink.
139
416711
1667
zilikuwa zimesukumwa ukingoni.
06:59
OK, that's the good news,
140
419410
3287
OK, hiyo ni habari njema,
07:02
this is the bad news.
141
422721
1292
hii ni habari mbaya.
07:05
Gene drives are so effective
142
425070
2028
Ubadilishaji jeni hufanyakazi kwa ufanisi
07:07
that even an accidental release could change an entire species,
143
427122
3825
hata ukiachiwa kwa bahati mbaya unaweza kubadili spishi nzima,
07:10
and often very quickly.
144
430971
1190
mara zote kwa haraka mno
07:13
Anthony James took good precautions.
145
433178
2126
Anthony James alichukua tahadhari vizuri.
07:15
He bred his mosquitos in a bio-containment lab
146
435328
2166
Alizalisha mbu wake kwenye maabara madhubuti
07:17
and he also used a species that's not native to the US
147
437518
2588
na pia alitumia spishi zisizo asilia kwa Marekani
07:20
so that even if some did escape,
148
440130
1555
ili hata baadhi zikiponyoka,
07:21
they'd just die off, there'd be nothing for them to mate with.
149
441709
3015
zitakufa tu, kutakuwa hakuna spishi za kuzaliana nao.
07:24
But it's also true that if a dozen Asian carp with the all-male gene drive
150
444748
4023
Lakini pia ni kweli ikiwa dazeni ya Kamongo wa Asia wenye jeni za kiume tu
07:28
accidentally got carried from the Great Lakes back to Asia,
151
448795
3929
bahati mbaya wakachukuliwa kutoka Maziwa Makuu na kurudishwa Asia,
07:32
they could potentially wipe out the native Asian carp population.
152
452748
3429
wanaweza kufuta idadi yote ya Kamongo wa Asia asilia.
07:37
And that's not so unlikely, given how connected our world is.
153
457930
2912
Nahiyo inawezekana, kwa jinsi dunia yetu ilivyounganika.
07:40
In fact, it's why we have an invasive species problem.
154
460866
2571
ndio maana tuna tatizo la spishi zinazoenea kwa kasi.
07:43
And that's fish.
155
463912
1168
Na hiyo ni samaki.
07:45
Things like mosquitos and fruit flies,
156
465428
2588
Vitu kama mbu na nzi wa matunda,
07:48
there's literally no way to contain them.
157
468040
1960
Hakuna kabisa njia ya kuwadhibiti.
07:50
They cross borders and oceans all the time.
158
470024
2111
Wanavuka mipaka na bahari wakati wote.
07:53
OK, the other piece of bad news
159
473754
2182
OK, kipande kingine cha habari mbaya
07:55
is that a gene drive might not stay confined
160
475960
2318
ubadilishaji jeni hauwezi kufungwa sehemu moja
07:58
to what we call the target species.
161
478302
1813
kwa kile tunachokiita spishi lengwa.
08:00
That's because of gene flow,
162
480556
1499
Husababishwa na kuhama kwa jeni
08:02
which is a fancy way of saying that neighboring species
163
482079
2597
ambayo tunaweza kusema pia ni spishi jirani
08:04
sometimes interbreed.
164
484700
1248
wakati mwingine huzaliana.
08:05
If that happens, it's possible a gene drive could cross over,
165
485972
3151
kama itatokea,inawezekana ubadilishaji jeni kwenda upande mwingine,
08:09
like Asian carp could infect some other kind of carp.
166
489147
2527
kama Kamongo wa Asia wataambukiza Kamongo wengine.
08:11
That's not so bad if your drive just promotes a trait, like eye color.
167
491698
3715
Si vibaya ubadilishaji wako ukisaidia kibainisho kama rangi ya macho.
08:15
In fact, there's a decent chance that we'll see
168
495437
2247
Kwa kweli,kuna nafasi kubwa kwa tutaona
08:17
a wave of very weird fruit flies in the near future.
169
497708
2571
wimbi la nzi wa matunda wasio kawaida kwa siku zijazo
08:21
But it could be a disaster
170
501390
1263
Lakini inaweza kuwa janga
08:22
if your drive is deigned to eliminate the species entirely.
171
502677
2904
Ikiwa ubadilishaji wake umetengenezwa kutokomeza spishi yote.
08:26
The last worrisome thing is that the technology to do this,
172
506351
3528
Kitu cha mwisho cha kutia hofu ni kwamba teknolojia ya kufanya hivi,
08:29
to genetically engineer an organism and include a gene drive,
173
509903
3691
kutengeneza viumbe kijenetiki na kutumia ubadilishaji jeni,
08:33
is something that basically any lab in the world can do.
174
513618
3334
ni kitu ambacho maabara yoyote duniani inaweza kufanya.
08:36
An undergraduate can do it.
175
516976
1340
Mhitimu wa chuo ataweza.
08:39
A talented high schooler with some equipment can do it.
176
519209
3282
Mwanafunzi wa sekondari mwenye kipaji na vifaa anaweza kufanya.
08:44
Now, I'm guessing that this sounds terrifying.
177
524526
2309
Sasa naona kwamba inaonekana inatisha sana.
08:47
(Laughter)
178
527351
2206
(Kicheko)
08:49
Interestingly though, nearly every scientist I talk to
179
529581
2890
Chakufurahisha, karibia kila mwanasayansi ninayeongea naye
08:52
seemed to think that gene drives were not actually that frightening or dangerous.
180
532495
3881
anafikiria kwamba ubadilishaji jeni sio wa kutisha au hatari kiasi hicho.
08:56
Partly because they believe that scientists will be
181
536400
2628
Upande mmoja kwasababu wanaamini wanasayansi watakuwa
08:59
very cautious and responsible about using them.
182
539052
2204
makini sana na kuwajibika kuhusu kuzitumia.
09:01
(Laughter)
183
541280
1014
(Kicheko)
09:02
So far, that's been true.
184
542318
1230
Kwa hapo, hilo ni kweli.
09:04
But gene drives also have some actual limitations.
185
544302
2696
Ila ubadilishaji jeni pia una kikomo kilichopo.
09:07
So for one thing, they work only in sexually reproducing species.
186
547022
3309
Kitu kimoja, unafanya kazi kwa spishi zinazozaliana kwa kupandana.
09:10
So thank goodness, they can't be used to engineer viruses or bacteria.
187
550704
3428
Hivyo tushukuru, hauwezi kutumika kutengeneza virusi au bakteria.
09:14
Also, the trait spreads only with each successive generation.
188
554156
3190
Pia, vibainisho huenea kwa kizazi kinachofuatia tu.
09:17
So changing or eliminating a population
189
557370
1993
Kubadilisha au kutokomeza kundi tafiti
09:19
is practical only if that species has a fast reproductive cycle,
190
559387
3326
inawezekana tu ikiwa spishi hiyo ina mzunguko wa haraka wa kuzaliana,
09:22
like insects or maybe small vertebrates like mice or fish.
191
562737
2800
kama wadudu au labda wanyama wadogo kama panya au samaki.
09:26
In elephants or people, it would take centuries
192
566438
2261
Kwa tembo au binadamu, itachukua karne kadhaa
09:28
for a trait to spread widely enough to matter.
193
568723
2380
kibainishi kuenea kwa kiasi kikubwa kuleta maana.
09:32
Also, even with CRISPR, it's not that easy to engineer a truly devastating trait.
194
572079
5142
Pia hata kwa CRISPR, sio rahisi kutengeneza kibainishi kiharibifu.
09:38
Say you wanted to make a fruit fly
195
578079
1729
Sema ulitaka kutengeneza nzi matunda
09:39
that feeds on ordinary fruit instead of rotting fruit,
196
579832
2555
ambao hula matunda ya kawaida badala ya kuyaozesha,
09:42
with the aim of sabotaging American agriculture.
197
582411
2633
kwa nia ya kuhujumu kilimo cha Marekani.
09:45
First, you'd have to figure out
198
585068
1530
Kwanza, unatakiwa ujue
09:46
which genes control what the fly wants to eat,
199
586622
2772
ni jeni zipi zinaongoza kitu gani nzi wanataka kula,
09:49
which is already a very long and complicated project.
200
589418
2547
ambayo tayari ni mpango mrefu sana na mgumu.
09:52
Then you'd have to alter those genes to change the fly's behavior
201
592489
3304
Kisha urekebishe hizo jeni kubadilisha tabia ya nzi
09:55
to whatever you'd want it to be,
202
595817
1538
kuwa chochote unachotaka kiwe
09:57
which is an even longer and more complicated project.
203
597379
2801
ambayo ni mpango mrefu zaidi na mgumu zaidi.
10:00
And it might not even work,
204
600204
1318
Na inaweza isifanye kazi,
10:01
because the genes that control behavior are complex.
205
601546
2494
kwasababu jeni zinazoongoza tabia ni changamani
10:04
So if you're a terrorist and have to choose
206
604064
2008
Kama wewe ni gaidi na unatakiwa uchague
10:06
between starting a grueling basic research program
207
606096
2358
kati ya kuanza programu ya utafiti yenye kuchosha
10:08
that will require years of meticulous lab work and still might not pan out,
208
608478
3527
itakayohitaji miaka mingi maabara na bado isitokee vizuri,
10:12
or just blowing stuff up?
209
612029
1347
au ulipue tu vitu?
10:13
You'll probably choose the later.
210
613400
1655
Pengine utachagua cha pili.
10:15
This is especially true because at least in theory,
211
615498
2420
Hii haswa ni kweli kwasababu angalau kinadharia
10:17
it should be pretty easy to build what's called a reversal drive.
212
617942
3134
inatakiwa iwe rahisi kujenga ubadilishaji kinyume.
10:21
That's one that basically overwrites the change made by the first gene drive.
213
621100
3698
Hii ndio ile inayofunika mabadiliko ya ubadilishaji jeni wa kwanza
10:24
So if you don't like the effects of a change,
214
624822
2294
Hivyo kama hupendi athari za mabadiliko,
10:27
you can just release a second drive that will cancel it out,
215
627140
2833
unaweza kutoa tu ubadilishaji wapili ambao utaifuta,
10:29
at least in theory.
216
629997
1150
angalau kinadharia.
10:33
OK, so where does this leave us?
217
633374
1722
OK,hii inatuacha wapi?
10:36
We now have the ability to change entire species at will.
218
636604
3595
Sasa tunao uwezo wa kubadilisha spishi yoyote kwa hiari.
10:41
Should we?
219
641017
1166
Tufanye hivyo?
10:42
Are we gods now?
220
642552
1365
Tumekuwa miungu sasa?
10:45
I'm not sure I'd say that.
221
645972
1333
Sijui kama ningesema hivyo.
10:48
But I would say this:
222
648094
1227
Ila ningesema hivi:
10:50
first, some very smart people
223
650329
1858
kwanza, baadhi ya watu wenye akili sana
10:52
are even now debating how to regulate gene drives.
224
652211
2856
sasa hivi wanajadili jinsi ya kudhibiti ubadilishaji jeni.
10:55
At the same time, some other very smart people
225
655598
2564
Wakati huo huo watu wengine wenye akili sana
10:58
are working hard to create safeguards,
226
658186
2111
wanafanyakazi kwa bidii kuunda uhifadhi,
11:00
like gene drives that self-regulate or peter out after a few generations.
227
660321
3552
ikiwa uendeshaji jeni utajiendesha au kupotea baada ya vizazi vichache.
11:04
That's great.
228
664644
1200
Hivyo ni vizuri
11:06
But this technology still requires a conversation.
229
666313
2547
Lakini teknolojia hii bado inahitaji mazungunzo.
11:10
And given the nature of gene drives,
230
670059
1730
Kutokana ubadilishaji jeni ulivyo
11:11
that conversation has to be global.
231
671813
1690
mazungumzo hayo yawe ya kimataifa.
11:14
What if Kenya wants to use a drive but Tanzania doesn't?
232
674131
2707
Itakuwaje Kenya ikitaka kutumia ila Tanzania inakataa?
11:17
Who decides whether to release a gene drive that can fly?
233
677241
3367
Nani anayeamua iwe kuachia ubadilishaji jeni utakaopaa?
11:22
I don't have the answer to that question.
234
682874
1954
Sina majibu kwa swali hilo.
11:25
All we can do going forward, I think,
235
685618
2008
Tunachoweza kufanya mbeleni, nadhani,
11:27
is talk honestly about the risks and benefits
236
687650
2834
ni kuongea kwa uwazi kuhusu hatari na faida
11:30
and take responsibility for our choices.
237
690508
2222
na kuwajibika kwa uchaguzi wetu.
11:33
By that I mean, not just the choice to use a gene drive,
238
693817
3913
kwa hilo, namaanisha si uchaguzi tu wa kutumia ubadilishaji jeni,
11:37
but also the choice not to use one.
239
697754
1999
bali pia uchaguzi wa kutotumia.
11:41
Humans have a tendency to assume that the safest option
240
701111
2977
Binadamu wanatabia ya kudhania uchaguzi salama kuliko wote
11:44
is to preserve the status quo.
241
704112
1792
ni kutunza hali kama ilivyo.
11:46
But that's not always the case.
242
706905
1572
Lakini haiko hivyo siku zote.
11:49
Gene drives have risks, and those need to be discussed,
243
709711
3401
Ubadilishaji jeni una hatari na hizo zinahitaji kujadiliwa,
11:53
but malaria exists now and kills 1,000 people a day.
244
713136
3150
lakini malaria ipo sasa na inaua watu 1,000 kila siku.
11:56
To combat it, we spray pesticides that do grave damage to other species,
245
716977
3564
kupambana nayo, tunapuliza dawa ambazo huharibu spishi nyingine,
12:00
including amphibians and birds.
246
720565
1570
ikijumuisha amfibia na ndege.
12:03
So when you hear about gene drives in the coming months,
247
723668
2864
Hivyo utakaposikia ubadilishaji jeni miezi inayokuja,
12:06
and trust me, you will be hearing about them,
248
726556
2254
na niamini utasikia habari zake
12:08
remember that.
249
728834
1544
ila kutofanya kitu ni mbaya zaidi.
kumbuka kwamba.
12:10
It can be frightening to act,
250
730402
2020
inaweza kutia hofu kuchukua hatua,
12:12
but sometimes, not acting is worse.
251
732446
2137
12:16
(Applause)
252
736746
7820
(Makofi)
Kuhusu tovuti hii

Tovuti hii itakuletea video za YouTube ambazo ni muhimu kwa kujifunza Kiingereza. Utaona masomo ya Kiingereza yanayofundishwa na walimu wa kiwango cha juu kutoka duniani kote. Bofya mara mbili kwenye manukuu ya Kiingereza yanayoonyeshwa kwenye kila ukurasa wa video ili kucheza video kutoka hapo. Manukuu yanasonga katika kusawazishwa na uchezaji wa video. Ikiwa una maoni au maombi yoyote, tafadhali wasiliana nasi kwa kutumia fomu hii ya mawasiliano.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7